$7/gal gas predicted w/i 2 years.....

[Ken Fitzgerald]

For an interesting perspective here are the overall and annual cost of gas increases in the US and the UK since Jan/2001 in local currency

US 150% (13.2% per annum)

UK 39% (4.5% per annum)

So in the UK and Europe gas has increased slightly faster than inflation but it doesn't likely have a significant effect on their overall cost of living.

Greg...but they have had consideralbly higher gas prices in Europe for decades.

[Daniel Berlin]

There is something disturbingly wrong with how that image plays out.
What kind of soap do you use while bathing in your prius?

Wouldn't you like to know

[Greg Funk]

Greg...but they have had consideralbly higher gas prices in Europe for decades.

True enough but for much of the world the impact of higher oil prices isn't significant so they are unlikely to alter their behaviour and lower consumption. If overall demand for oil doesn't diminish then oil prices will likely stay high.

[Dennis Peacock]

I honestly don't believe that fuel prices will ever go back down. We allow "big brother" to look after us instead of "for the people, by the people". nuff said.

[Butch Edwards]

Butch...Understand ...that is not a political statement. That is a statement of business fact. Oil companies in this country don't seem to be reducing their price to help stabilize the American economy...they are showing record profits. Who was it Haliburton, a major US oil well service company, just moved their headquarters for operations from the Houston area to some place over in the Middle East to be closer to their main clientele.

I come from the oilfield. My father died of a heart attack on the floor of an oil rig in 1972. I got drug out of bed at age 14 by my Dad to work for him when a worker showed up drunk and he had to make a trip (pull all the pipe and put on a new bit and go back to bottom to drill). At age 15 I was working full time for Dad Morning Tower (11-7) and going to HS days. I finished HS this way and so did my younger brother. One of the reasons I wrote a term paper in '67 about the coming oil shortage and the shale oil resource was because of my then involvement in the drilling for oil.

The problem is more the current society and business culture in this country and less about international politics. Companies today are worried about short term goals and objectives and appeasing Wall Street projections with little thought about the long term effects of short term decisions.

Easily produced oil as we know it has a limited supply. It is not going to last forever and the leaders of the world and the business community had better be taking it seriously. Can shale oil be produced yes....but not as cheaply as our present and past oil production......Can alternatives energy methods be developed to power our autos etc. Yes but there is going to be a time lag.......and.... People are going to have to give a little ....some of the "special" interests are going to have to be willing to give a little for good of society and the world as we know it.

Anything can be solved....it's just a matter of time and money.

And that's just the 2 cents worth from a guy in Idaho...going to the shop to work on some shop cabinets....and maybe play with his great granddaughter if she and great-grandma are awake yet. They stayed up late playing last night.

I do understand,Ken... you're right about the main reason we're in this mess, however, I can't believe that after 60 years, we were so hooked like a heroin addict, that we couldn't find an alternative fuel. we knew that the Mid-East oil nations had us, regardless of how much reserves we had access to. I personally believe that capitolism can be a destructive way to run a nation,when allowed to operate w/o oversight.... there has to be limits as to stopping the amount of profits,when they are upsetting the good of the common man. I also think that there'll come a time, when the other developing nations can no longer afford to play keep-up on the oil prices. this has become a global economy, one which we should have backed away from....we cannot come out ahead in that market.we don't produce enough in the way of goods, nor have enough sustaining wealth get back into the black.

[Matt Ocel]

I'm gonna buy 6' of garden hose and a gas can.


Then send my wife out at night on the ten speed.

[Ben Rafael]

A large part of oil prices going up is the weak dollar and a huge rally/bubble in the futures market. I dont know how much higher it will go, but eventually the dollar should strengthen and the futures market should come back to earth. Hopefully this happens sooner than later, but I doubt it will happen sooner than a year from now.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

Ben,

I agree...the oil futures market could be part of the problem.

Help me out here. Though I'm invested up to my eyeballs in the stock market I'm somewhat ignorant. What is to stop somebody who owns oil wells from investing in the futures market....then despite increasing demand for oil, hold the supply constant. The price of oil goes up on the market due to bidding. They make money off the oil and from the futures they own. Is this possible?

[Ted Jay]

Filled up my diesel pickup today. It's interesting how gasoline price are fairly standard at all the stations, yet there is usually a big variance in diesel prices.

Today, I drove by a Mobile station advertising diesel at $5.35. Half a mile away I filled up at another Mobile station for $4.86...almost fifty cents a gal difference!

I also saved almost $.25 a gallon by using my Costco American Express card to buy it, which gives me 5% back at the end of the year. This means I may have saved almost $.75 per gal over a customer at the first station mentioned.

Yes, I know I could get great mileage with a little car, but I do use the pickup quite a bit. Besides, it gets better mileage than my Jeep Wrangler.

I have always figured that if diesel was within 20-25% of gas prices I am ahead of the game, since my diesel truck gets at least that much better fuel mileage than my last gas powered truck (not even considering it can tow anything I will ever own).....but I have to admit that I need to keep reminding myself of that at every fill up since there is a buck a gallon difference now. Three years ago, diesel was cheaper.

Years ago, as a young family taking trips with our travel trailer, I would get off the highway and drive all the way through small towns to save $.03 per gallon. Gas was under $.30, and that was a 9-10% savings. Today, I might not go down the street to save that $.03 (and with gasoline that is STILL all the difference in most places). Now that is less than 1%. As mentioned above there still is quite a variation in diesel, but not gas. Wish I knew why.

Rick Potter

Rick, I know what you mean. I just filled the truck up, with diesel at $4.59 to the tune of $137. I drive 108 miles round trip to work 5 days a week. The truck is getting about 19 to 21 miles to the gallon. Might have to start riding the motorcycle to work on those half day Fridays or work the whole day for some OT.

On another note, here is an interesting web site pertaining to hydrogen...
http://gethydropower.com/

Later,
Ted

[Greg Funk]

Ben,

I agree...the oil futures market could be part of the problem.

Help me out here. Though I'm invested up to my eyeballs in the stock market I'm somewhat ignorant. What is to stop somebody who owns oil wells from investing in the futures market....then despite increasing demand for oil, hold the supply constant. The price of oil goes up on the market due to bidding. They make money off the oil and from the futures they own. Is this possible?

It works as long as demand remains high which it typically doesn't as prices rise. Once demand falls the value of the futures drops. Someone who owns wells doesn't really need to buy futures as it would just increase their risk. If anything they are often selling/hedging to minimize their risk in the event prices drop.

[Dewey Torres]

Maybe by then they will have figured out that the $75 cut off needs to be increased!

See my thread:

http://www.sawmillcreek.org/showthread.php?t=85000

Dewey

[Ben Rafael]

Ben,

I agree...the oil futures market could be part of the problem.

Help me out here. Though I'm invested up to my eyeballs in the stock market I'm somewhat ignorant. What is to stop somebody who owns oil wells from investing in the futures market....then despite increasing demand for oil, hold the supply constant. The price of oil goes up on the market due to bidding. They make money off the oil and from the futures they own. Is this possible?

Companies/people who own oil wells frequently trade futures as an insurance against oil prices dropping.
Now, for what you said, unless you control enough oil wells you cannot influence the market by withholding or increasing the oil you control. You would probably need to control at least 5% of the worlds supply of oil to do that. And if you had control over that much all you would need to do is publish a press release saying that you are thinking about cutting production and then you would see oil futures rise. This, by the way, is illegal in the USA. If you ever wondered why oil execs in the US dont talk unless they are forced to by congress it is because they dont want to be fined or go to jail for being misunderstood.

BTW, something that the press never mentions as a major cause of the rise in the price of oil is how much the dollar has been whacked. The dollar has sunk about 30% in the past 2 years, vs the euro. That alone would account for the price of gas being so high. Yet the congress is blaming the oil companies.

[Pete Simmons]

Ted:

The hydrogen info web site you posted raises many questions with me.

Yes there are ways to generate hydrogen using electrical power ( key word there being power ) and maybe if said Hydrogen was injected into an engine it could produce some power

But - every transition of energy has a efficency cost associated with it.

I would bet that any hydrogen power derived from this system is way less than the alternator power used to produce it thus a net loss overall.

I would also be concerned with hydrogen being contained in plexiglass containers in a truck type enviroment. Few small leaks - few random sparks and instant fireworks.

Looks like a cool way for someone to sell a very cheap apparatus for big $$ that does nothing and may be very dangerous to play with.

Again I hate to be the naysayer to all these ideas but I have studied the energy topic somewhat so far my conclusions are -

1. There is no free enegy lunch out there

2. Unless we (society of the world ) come up with an energy breakthru one of the best things we can do as citizens and parents would be to start teaching our Grand kids how to live in the conditions of midevil times.

I know it sounds harsh - but is is and is meant to be. 50 - 75 years from now without a breakthru, the world will be in sad shape.

[Greg Peterson]

Oil provides the most bang for the buck. I don't think anyone can argue that point.

We've heard arguments about all the energy required to grow ethanol and produce fuel for nuclear reactors. But we haven't heard any facts about how much energy is required to find, drill, transport, refine and distribute oil. Getting oil out of the ground and into our tanks is a massive undertaking.

Had we heeded the lesson of the early 70's we would have been well on our way to a more stable and sustainable energy infrastructure.

Cheap energy has contributed to the urban sprawl. It has encouraged a throw away society that places a premium value on wastefulness. It is cheaper to replace many items these days than to make them serviceable. Keeps the wheels of commerce turning which in turn fattens up our 401k's.

Solving our dwindling energy options is only half the battle. Changing attitudes and habits is the other part of the equation and will occur on a generational time scale. These are the good old days.

Imagine what a multi trillion dollar investment six years ago might have meant to us now.

As consumers, we need only look in the mirror to find those responsible for todays problems.

[Jeffrey Makiel]

I honestly don't believe that fuel prices will ever go back down. We allow "big brother" to look after us instead of "for the people, by the people". nuff said.

Imagine if our nation regulated the oil industry and also accessed our own oil fields, but kept the price somewhat high. We would bail out social security and have premium health care for everyone, and as icing on the cake, stimulate conservation and energy research to eventually gain full energy independence.

Nope...Can't do...Wall Street says no.

As Butch said: "I personally believe that capitolism can be a destructive way to run a nation,when allowed to operate w/o oversight".

-Jeff