Coronavirus _ worried?

[Wade Lippman]

The death rate is approximated as 2%. Contrast that with typical flu of 0.1% and coronavirus is 20x worse death rate than the flu.

Ed: There are currently 81,714 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,771 fatalities which equates to a 3.4% death rate

That is complete nonsense. It is everywhere; every country, every city.... Yet only 81,000 cases? It is obviously very contagious, but it seems to be infecting almost no one. When China said there were 4,000 cases, medical authorities in Hong Kong said the true number was 80,000. Nearly all were too mild to attract attention. Likewise, I am sure there are now a million or two. So 2700 fatalities is about the same as the flu.

[Aaron Rosenthal]

My daughter was injured on Wednesday at work, and I was out of town. Wife did the visiting.
We’re going to the hospital tonight to visit her in a few minutes, and I’ll be wearing a dust mask and nitrite gloves.
I’m 75, had have a light cough, but I’m more concerned about the fact that the very worst place to be during a contagious event is a germ ridden hospital.

[Wade Lippman]

We have a DIL who is a clinical pharmacist in a group of hospitals in the Central Valley of California. I just got home from visiting there for a week. The staff there have preparing for the possible spread of the this new version of the corona virus. That was the one point that she drove home to me multiple times when discussing this with her. There are multiple "versions" of this virus, some of which have been present in this country for years. It's just that this is the newest, relatively unknown version of the corona virus.

She did point out it wasn't quite as dangerous as it is being talked about by the media, in general. As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.

The many varieties of the common cold are all corona viruses. There are hundreds of variations. This is the Covid-19 virus; it is new only in that it never infected humans before. The Chinese eat wild animals and that encourages pathogens to jump the species barrier. Ebola came from Africans eating Chimps.

[Wade Lippman]

I heard today that Clorox stock price is going up.
Bil lD

My grandfather and his brother founded the company that makes Purell. He sold out for a pittance 60 years ago. Oh well.

[Bill Dufour]

My grandfather and his brother founded the company that makes Purell. He sold out for a pittance 60 years ago. Oh well.

Well the Gamble house looks to be nice and clean.
Bil l

[Jim Koepke]

I think they're confusing the Wuhan virus with the Yeehaw virus.

Isn't the program host (guy wearing headphones) renowned for his Yeehaw-ism?

jtk

[Jim Koepke]

The SXSW festival here in Texas was cancelled late today, at a reported cost of $250million to Austin in lost business. They made the right decision (after weeks of dithering.) That's _nothing_ compared to the economic cost of quarantining the whole city.

Large events like this filled with attendees from all over then returning home or traveling to other cities can become major vectors of illness.

Has anyone watched the movie Inferno?

That is complete nonsense. It is everywhere; every country, every city.... Yet only 81,000 cases? It is obviously very contagious, but it seems to be infecting almost no one. When China said there were 4,000 cases, medical authorities in Hong Kong said the true number was 80,000. Nearly all were too mild to attract attention. Likewise, I am sure there are now a million or two. So 2700 fatalities is about the same as the flu.

The numbers you quote from Pat's post are at least 4 days old. There have been many new cases reported since. Maybe if our testing comes online soon we will find more nonlethal cases to lower the percentage of fatality, maybe not.

jtk

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

Local nursing home was screening all visitors yesterday for temperatures. The nurse at the front desk was running some thermometer gizmo over everyone's foreheads checking for fevers. Another nurse questioned why the same thermometer gizmo was being used in contact with all the visitors without being even wiped off between uses. As in wouldn't they be helping to spread the disease? The nurse visitor told the nursing home worker, You are not touching me with that thing until you have wiped it with a disinfectant and created a big stir. Frankly it seems some measures are indeed counterproductive and would spread the disease. Then, Italy announces a curfew and quarantine of an entire geographical area. Interviewing the medical guy in charge, the doc says the disease there has mutated to another form. Does this Italian expert even know what he is saying? Not that I think Italians are medically ignorant, but if true, we have a whole lot more to worry about. Meanwhile the thing that is the Pa Secretary of health announces that "it is going to get far worse before it gets better" That should make people feel less panicky. Mean while the American death toll is like a dozen from Covid-19 and per the CDC, over 12,000 from regular flu.

[Ronald Blue]

Local nursing home was screening all visitors yesterday for temperatures. The nurse at the front desk was running some thermometer gizmo over everyone's foreheads checking for fevers. Another nurse questioned why the same thermometer gizmo was being used in contact with all the visitors without being even wiped off between uses. As in wouldn't they be helping to spread the disease? The nurse visitor told the nursing home worker, You are not touching me with that thing until you have wiped it with a disinfectant and created a big stir. Frankly it seems some measures are indeed counterproductive and would spread the disease. Then, Italy announces a curfew and quarantine of an entire geographical area. Interviewing the medical guy in charge, the doc says the disease there has mutated to another form. Does this Italian expert even know what he is saying? Not that I think Italians are medically ignorant, but if true, we have a whole lot more to worry about. Meanwhile the thing that is the Pa Secretary of health announces that "it is going to get far worse before it gets better" That should make people feel less panicky. Mean while the American death toll is like a dozen from Covid-19 and per the CDC, over 12,000 from regular flu.

As I understand it 11 of those twelve deaths are at a "retirement home" in Washington state where someone that returned from China with the virus and visited the home. All the deaths that I saw were at least 80's in age and probably weakened immune systems. With all the news there has been in the last 3 months about this I can't fathom the decision to visit such a place until you know your not a carrier or ill yourself. Ignorance or recklessness? A fine line I guess. Then I believe it was in Vermont someone tested positive and was advised to stay home. So what do they do? Go to some sort of gathering. SMH

[Curt Harms]

.................................................. ....
Meanwhile the thing that is the Pa Secretary of health announces that "it is going to get far worse before it gets better" That should make people feel less panicky. Mean while the American death toll is like a dozen from Covid-19 and per the CDC, over 12,000 from regular flu.

Yabbut how can you gain clicks, sell papers, increase eyes on various TV outlets if all ya got is 'regular flu'. Not to mention there are some who will attempt make economic mountains out of mole hills. Certainly the airline and hospitality industries have and will continue to take a hit. More hype = bigger hit = ZOMG there's a huge downturn on the way.

[Pete Staehling]

Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.

Then again we may be grossly under estimating both the number of cases and the number of deaths. There may be deaths being attributed to pneumonia, the flu, whatever, either because they slip through the cracks and are misdiagnosed or because there is an intentional effort to keep the number low to minimize panic. I tend to doubt that our government and healthcare system is capable of coordinating on anything so I doubt a conspiracy is the reason, but incompetence is never a bad bet.

[John K Jordan]

Are you starting to worry about Coronavirus yet?

Regardless of how cases are counted, the apparent current rate of new cases reported is reason for concern for thinking people.

These are worldwide cases outside of China reported over just the last three weeks.
virus_outside_China_Mar7.jpg
(https://www.worldometers.info/corona...navirus-cases/)
Notice from the curve how the rate is increasing. Even a linear projection of the last 1/4 of that curve is enough to give pause, even to those promising a quick containment.

One count shows 105 new cases reported in the US in the last 24 hours, and that's with very little actual testing. Do a linear projection of that curve too and imagine what it could be like across the country in just a few weeks.
virus_US_Mar8.jpg
(https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-2020-n1120686)

I also watch the situation in Italy since I was planning to go there in a few weeks and revisit a number of areas in northern and central Italy.
virus_Italy_Mar8.jpg
The latest numbers this evening show about 1500 on top of this graph, giving about 7400 total. Of these, about 600 are reported as recovered, nearly 400 deaths.

I've decided to postpone my trip to Italy. Internal travel restrictions are increasing and most museums and things on our list like the Vatican are closed. And if I did go, I can imagine weeks in quarantine on return or even being denied rentry depending on the state of the official hysteria the end of May. My history of asthma, bronchitis, and occasional pneumonia (and age of 70) are other factors in my decision.

JKJ

[Bill Dufour]

Local couple is in the news for being on the ship to nowhere offshore off San Francisco. 20 people have been tested positive for the virus after they flew test kits out to the ship. They have not been tested. so they could be too early for symptoms.
The CDC forgot to use the federal quarantine time to ramp up production of test kits. I think the recent doubling of the CDC budget simply takes funding back to what it was pre McConnell actions. So it is not a increase it is just no longer being cut down.
Bil lD

[Mel Fulks]

No need for guessing what the government will do when we know what the mods must do. No one in government wants
to be known as the guy who did not think the threat required spending.

[Pat Barry]

Crazy thing about testing as it sits right now is the tests come from the CDC and they all have to go back to the CDC to be read. That's grossly inefficient. Terrible way to manage a nationwide outbreak such as this.

Ed: sounds like not all the tests need to go back to the CDC now as some hospitals and other labs can process the tests. Still extremely inefficient though and limited supply