Deflation would be a worse sign for the economy. Inflation is how a free market system corrects for supply/demand imbalance. I'd be looking hard for used equipment before I paid some of these prices.
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Professionally speaking, we (anyone in the industry) have been telling this to prospective buyers since shortly after the pandemic started. Some were smart and realized it was not just another sales pitch. Those are the ones who were successful in acquiring machinery and whose businesses are currently doing well. Others are still dug in, thinking it will “go back to the way it was” or whatever. It’s not and may never. Those are the guys who are circling the drain, whether or not they realize it.
Erik
Ex-SCM and Felder rep
Rapid inflation encourages spending which furthers inflation, wash rinse repeat. I personally can't see a world where prices go down significantly. I see a lot of scenarios where prices continue to increase.
If I needed/really wanted something, I would get it now. That's the thought process I used in ordering a slider back in September. I still don't feel great about it, but I wanted it and I can't see prices going down.
Thanks for all the replies to answer a few of the questions I am still pretty young (26). And I will be using the tools to make money as im rapidly switching my business from contractor to cabinet builder/wood worker. I am selling one of my rental properties soon and plan to put that money towards renovating a old grocery store i own to be my shop as well as a small store front for me to sell items I make. I could take some of that money to buy a few tools that I am wanting to increase productivity. Putting money towards tool would ultimately delay my renovation project of the new shop. Theses tools include a dovetail machine (i was looking at the powermatic), a Hoffman dovetail system for boxes and frames, a blum mini press, a automated stop block system for the miter saw, and a stand alone pocket hole machine. I have not personally seen much of these in the used market. I have seen a blum on ebay but missed out on the auction a few months back. These machines are not 100 percent nessicary but they would increase my productivity. As of now I am able to keep up with what I have.
Last edited by Mitch schiffer; 01-08-2022 at 10:41 AM.
Equipment for business purposes is a whole different ballgame.
Talk to your tax preparer and go over the different ways equipment can be amortized & what your tax liabilities are going to be with the sale of rental property.
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
I love it when that happens .I also have a loss on paper
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
I do not believe prices will come down in any significant way (work in the manufacturing industry).
If you wait, chances are you'll be disappointed in two ways. Buy now, and there is only the possibility that you will be disappointed one way, but that will be in the non-forseeable future, and you will have had the use of the machinery in the meantime.
This is a great summary, Tom ^^^… Gonna’ have to remember how you put it.
There are no ideal situations these days. The sooner folks accept this and plan accordingly, the sooner they move forward towards enjoying their hobby machine/becoming productive in business. Remaining paralyzed only hurts you while others adapt and move on.
Erik
Ex-SCM and Felder rep
I don't think prices will drop. More likely they will stabilize. What we could see is sales like 10% or 15% off. Companies like Powermatic would often have one or two a year. But as long as there's orders for machines that haven't been built yet I wouldn't expect to even see much in the way of anything other than full retail. It amazes me just how far up prices have gone. I've gotten in a habit of looking at my tools and thinking "I could make a profit if I sold them".
you will always be waiting... you only live once. buy it and get it over with
The “buy now before the price goes up” messaging is a well worn sales tactic (Festool anyone?) and works well in the current economic environment as does the “buy now to reserve your place in line” tactic. No hard feelings for any sales rep trying to make their quarterly quota. We use both at the Fortune 50 company I work at.
I scan tool listings on CL several times each day like a lot of Creekers, and anecdotally, I’ve observed a surplus of used tools in the Austin area compared to a year ago with prices gradually decreasing over time. Many of the listings mention upgrading to a new tool. I read that as people starting to receive their orders and restoring the inventory in our used market.
I recently purchased a 2 year old Grizzly slider from a cabinet shop for $3,200. I ended up selling my hybrid Grizzly cabinet saw for $100 less than I paid for it in about 6 hours. Still inflated prices, but they are slowly coming down.
For me, it would depend on how badly you needed the tool. Do you need it to make money? Is it an upgrade where you can get by with what you have now? I watched CL for 2 years for a deal on a used 15” planer. Finally found one in November, but it’s a hobby for me.
For a business, you need to calculate the opportunity cost - i.e. how much money will you miss out on if you don’t buy the tool? If the inflated tool price is $4k but you are turning away $8k in business every month, then it’s a no brainer.