Video to watch

[Craig D Peltier]

Hi I watched this video. Its really only text but it was hard not to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljbI-363A2Q

If its against rules to post link just got to youtube and search "shift happens".

This si what my email said

From a recent Air War College National Security Forum, held at Nellis AFB
in Las Vegas............... This link, was shown during one of the briefings.
Watching it, truly puts the future of the United States in perspective!


The title of this video is "Shift Happens."

[Reed Wells]

Craig, WOW! Now there is some scary SHIFT in there.

[John Shuk]

That is unreal

[Jim Creech]

Spooky!

"Now that I know that I am no wiser than anyone else, does this make me wiser?

[Mitchell Andrus]

Spooky - NO. Just more of the same.

Imagine if someone were to lay out these (similar for 1900) facts in 1900... and accurately predicted... cars, planes, central air, nylon, color photography, population explosions, TV, 2 World Wars, Love Canal, civil rights movm't, polio vacine, sewage treatment, AIDS and cures for many cancers - all by 2000, someone would likely say they were apprehensive about the future.

Yet 100 years later, we're still here. Not that there's nothing to worry about, but we always manage to survive it all.

[Chris Padilla]

(1) I don't believe all the statistics presented there. People are too quick to believe, I think.

(2) The music makes things seem more dramatic than they really are.

(3) A fair amount of the stuff presented is the video maker's personal beliefs. Kind of like how a move made from a book is the director's perspective on the book.

(4) Technical innovation and growth is developed and fostered by who? Uh, human beings last I checked. You go to school to learn the fundamentals and we all know what you learn in school is only the tip of the iceberg when you hit the "real world".

(5) I enjoyed the video but take it with a grain of salt and don't listen to the music.

[Brian J. Williams]

Before I started this reply, I went upstairs and got a sandwich and a coke (home sick today- nasty cold/flu). I figured this one might take a while.

As a premise to my comments, some brief background. I just turned 49. I've completed two college degrees; BS in geological engineering, MS in civil/geotechnichal engineering. I statrted some PhD-level work, but needed to make money in the real world. I have done geology and civil engineering stuff on everything from the local taco joint to things nuclear and even things that go into space. The first real computer I saw was the CDC 6400 at the college I went to. That thing took up much of the basement of one of the buildings. It ran on punch card-driven programs. That was 1977. 10 years later, I was the proud owner of an honest-to-God IBM PC that had been upgraded to include two half-height floppy drives and a 5 meg hard drive. Oh, the rapture.

As I sit here at home today, I'm working off a simple Dell desktop that has way more computational power that the old 6400 ever dreamed of. I can run finite element analyses in a matter of seconds that wouldn't even have been possible 20 years ago. So. . .

From my standpoint, the info on that video is entirely believable, because it's been going on now for 30 years- we just haven't seen a lot of it up close and personal.

So, what does it all mean to someone like me?

Well, most of the younger engineers who work with me are seriously whiz-bang at modern computational things. And that's great, but there are a seriously large number of younger folks- across the board- who can't do anything if it doesn't involve "technology". (Example from a few years back- my sister, the 4-point electrical engineer, marries this high-end Chicago lawyer. They had a flat tire and had to call the auto club because neither one of them knew how to change a tire OR COULD TAKE THE TIME TO READ THE DIRECTIONS HOW TO CHANGE THE TIRE!!!!).

My dad taught me how to maintain (and as necessary) overhaul my own vehicle, how to build wood-frame structures, how to do basic brick/block/rock work, how to paint a wall, how to shingle a roof, how to fish, how to hunt/take/clean/preserve game and fish. All of those skills have application in today's world; even in some of the work I do (like, how are things supposed to go together). A lot of the younger types just don't have the basics. I see these younger engineers wanting to "design" things, even though they've never built anything in their life, and I ask them- how can you design something if you've never built anything? (I try to get my younger engineers out to see real construction as much as possible.) I actually had a kid make change for me the other day by adding in his head. I told him he was a rare type and that he ought to be proud of himself, because there aren't many folks around who can do that any more. To use a currently over-used phrase, common sense isn't so common any more.


The trend I see as harmful is this- it seems that a whole lot of folks expect EVERYTHING to be as fast as their tricked-out electronics, and when that doesn't happen, general and widespread unhappiness occurs. It's almost as though the faster "things" become, the more unrealistic people's expectations become. I have clients who expect a detailed answer in hours for a job that will take weeks to complete. My daughter melted down once when her phone went south for a couple of hours and she couldn't get a wi-fi signal for her laptop. + Just because something is faster doesn't necessarily mean it's better.


The whole faster is better mindset is the very reason the neanderthal types (myself included) are even around. It's almost like we are the counterculture to the techno-advancing world. (The mental picture of me waving a #8 jointer at a computer protest is a little weird, though.) Even as I sit here typing this in, it occurs to me that, as little as 2 years ago, it never would have occurred to me that I would be a part of an (any???) online forum, even if it is for woodworking.


So, things have changed before, and things will continue to change. It WILL become more important in most jobs to be able to use or at least grudgingly interact with a computer. But you know what? Being self-sufficient will never go out of style, no matter how much technology advances. I like the fact that I can hunt and put away enough meat for my family, that I can build the addition on my home BY MYSELF, that I can build nice furniture for my wife, that I can do a decent job of sharpening and using my tools, and that I am able to carry on old technology that to many seems pedestrian and of no use.

Brian

[Craig D Peltier]

Before I started this reply, I went upstairs and got a sandwich and a coke (home sick today- nasty cold/flu). I figured this one might take a while.

As a premise to my comments, some brief background. I just turned 49. I've completed two college degrees; BS in geological engineering, MS in civil/geotechnichal engineering. I statrted some PhD-level work, but needed to make money in the real world. I have done geology and civil engineering stuff on everything from the local taco joint to things nuclear and even things that go into space. The first real computer I saw was the CDC 6400 at the college I went to. That thing took up much of the basement of one of the buildings. It ran on punch card-driven programs. That was 1977. 10 years later, I was the proud owner of an honest-to-God IBM PC that had been upgraded to include two half-height floppy drives and a 5 meg hard drive. Oh, the rapture.

As I sit here at home today, I'm working off a simple Dell desktop that has way more computational power that the old 6400 ever dreamed of. I can run finite element analyses in a matter of seconds that wouldn't even have been possible 20 years ago. So. . .

From my standpoint, the info on that video is entirely believable, because it's been going on now for 30 years- we just haven't seen a lot of it up close and personal.

So, what does it all mean to someone like me?

Well, most of the younger engineers who work with me are seriously whiz-bang at modern computational things. And that's great, but there are a seriously large number of younger folks- across the board- who can't do anything if it doesn't involve "technology". (Example from a few years back- my sister, the 4-point electrical engineer, marries this high-end Chicago lawyer. They had a flat tire and had to call the auto club because neither one of them knew how to change a tire OR COULD TAKE THE TIME TO READ THE DIRECTIONS HOW TO CHANGE THE TIRE!!!!).

My dad taught me how to maintain (and as necessary) overhaul my own vehicle, how to build wood-frame structures, how to do basic brick/block/rock work, how to paint a wall, how to shingle a roof, how to fish, how to hunt/take/clean/preserve game and fish. All of those skills have application in today's world; even in some of the work I do (like, how are things supposed to go together). A lot of the younger types just don't have the basics. I see these younger engineers wanting to "design" things, even though they've never built anything in their life, and I ask them- how can you design something if you've never built anything? (I try to get my younger engineers out to see real construction as much as possible.) I actually had a kid make change for me the other day by adding in his head. I told him he was a rare type and that he ought to be proud of himself, because there aren't many folks around who can do that any more. To use a currently over-used phrase, common sense isn't so common any more.


The trend I see as harmful is this- it seems that a whole lot of folks expect EVERYTHING to be as fast as their tricked-out electronics, and when that doesn't happen, general and widespread unhappiness occurs. It's almost as though the faster "things" become, the more unrealistic people's expectations become. I have clients who expect a detailed answer in hours for a job that will take weeks to complete. My daughter melted down once when her phone went south for a couple of hours and she couldn't get a wi-fi signal for her laptop. + Just because something is faster doesn't necessarily mean it's better.


The whole faster is better mindset is the very reason the neanderthal types (myself included) are even around. It's almost like we are the counterculture to the techno-advancing world. (The mental picture of me waving a #8 jointer at a computer protest is a little weird, though.) Even as I sit here typing this in, it occurs to me that, as little as 2 years ago, it never would have occurred to me that I would be a part of an (any???) online forum, even if it is for woodworking.


So, things have changed before, and things will continue to change. It WILL become more important in most jobs to be able to use or at least grudgingly interact with a computer. But you know what? Being self-sufficient will never go out of style, no matter how much technology advances. I like the fact that I can hunt and put away enough meat for my family, that I can build the addition on my home BY MYSELF, that I can build nice furniture for my wife, that I can do a decent job of sharpening and using my tools, and that I am able to carry on old technology that to many seems pedestrian and of no use.

Brian

I like your story.Sounds like your very diverse.
Im 33 and own my first house.I have a condo since 01 but a house has made me learn things I never thought I would have to.
Its been a great learning experience, yard work, drainage, cutting trees, fixing lawnmowers, weed whackers , garage doors etc and then doing woodwork in the home and for the home. I enjoy the hands on stuff but it doesnt pay. Im glad I know it though.
I went to high school in New Bedford Mass, its either number one or two if the biggest fishing ports in the world. I went to a vocational school, thye had Marine Industries (around 1988 till 92), that what shop I got. My dad was like no way your not staying there. The fishing industry is dying an it sucks. If your going to stay at this school at least your going to learn a trade that will be around forever. That was carpentry. I took 4 years, 1st year hand tools, second year cabinets, third sheds and furniture, 4th year we built furniture and a house. So he was smart to make me go into that field.
I took a job in Los Angeles shortly after I got out an worked as a sales executive for 12 yrs making great money but now im back to my roots with wood again. Wow full turn.
I was amazed by the video on the facts. I think the US needs to wake up and educate kids if thye want this once #1 power country to come back around. We let all these bubbles happen and crokked politicians in the whitehouse etc. All greedy, not looking towards the future of there great great grandkids.
Anyways im not the authority, just a peon.

[Russ Filtz]

They make it sound like China having a labor SURPLUS over the US is a good thing. That just means they must have umpteen million MORE people unemployed or underemployed, AND underpaid.

[Mitchell Andrus]

I'm with you, Brian. If all of the technology stopped dead, you and I would make it just fine.

I used to scoff at the survivalists.

[Dennis Peacock]

Pretty wild stuff right there.

[Pat Germain]

The most frightening numbers I've seen lately are US high school graduation rates; recently recalculated without all the fluff from districts trying to look good.

Many US urban areas have graduation rates around 24%. I think it was areas of Cleveland where it's even lower.

With technology advancing as fast as it is, what will become of the large numbers of virtually uneducated Americans?

I agree basic skills are necessary and should be handed down. I agree many things we all learned as youngsters are complete mysteries to today's youngsters.

The problem is, those skills rarely allow us to make a living these days. If they do, it's a meager living, at best. And, we just can't venture into the wilderness and forage. There are too many laws and controls. Perhaps this is still possible in Alaska.

No doubt about China having surplus labor. While many in China's cities are thriving under a new ecomony, many more in rural areas are barely scraping by in squalor.

[Mitchell Andrus]

This planet is quickly becoming a third-world nation. Time to find someplace else to live.

If I someday look back and call these the 'good old days', we're in for it.

[Pat Germain]

^^ I see the opposite, Mitchell. It seems to me as more and more countries claw their way out of third world status, it's putting more and more pressure on resources and creating more and more competition with the US workforce.

[John Shuk]

I know the information shown about fiber optics is erroneous. It says net cost to upgrade is $0. Not so. Upgrading the equipment on either end is pretty expensive. It may save labor cost over the placement in the field but there is nothing cheap about what transmits and receives the data.