Things might be getting better with lumber prices

[Edwin Santos]

Maybe things on the lumber front are looking up?

If things settle down in Ukraine, maybe baltic birch will get closer to normal too.


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[Jeff Roltgen]

Guessing we'll be stuck at the higher numbers through 1st quarter of 2023. Distributors presumably bought at the higher pricing, so a complete mystery as to when they'll sell that off and decide it's safe to lower pricing again.
That's got to be an interesting seat to be in, given the volatility of things as of late.

[Edwin Santos]

Guessing we'll be stuck at the higher numbers through 1st quarter of 2023. Distributors presumably bought at the higher pricing, so a complete mystery as to when they'll sell that off and decide it's safe to lower pricing again.
That's got to be an interesting seat to be in, given the volatility of things as of late.

That's a good point. There might also be suppliers hanging on to the higher pricing simply because they think they can get it. It then takes good old fashioned competition to force their hand when they see volume dropping and customers going elsewhere.

[John TenEyck]

Those look like softwood construction lumber prices. It's way different for hardwood lumber and especially sheet goods. I buy from a local supplier. Their prices have come down some on both, but still have a loooong way to go to approach pre pandemic prices. When everything sorts itself out, I doubt prices will ever be that low again.

John

[Ray Newman]

"Their prices have come down some on both, but still have a loooong way to go to approach pre pandemic prices. When everything sorts itself out, I doubt prices will ever be that low again."

--John TenEyck

BINGO! Seems like for the least 18-24 months I have been hearing about the "anticipated price drop", but I have not actually seen or experienced it.

[Andrew More]

Before everybody and his brother starts bashing the big box stores for price gouging, I noticed my local Menards had their prices just slightly elevated for a very long time, I expect the decreases to have a similar lag. The truth is that most retailers don't want to gouge their customers, since it causes a lot of ill will. In this case if they drop their prices significantly and then raising them just as quickly there will be a dozen threads on this forum accusing them of gouging. So there's going to be lag.

I'd also point out that that's a futures chart, so it's speculative, until it's not, and it looks like a ride at a theme park. Big box stores don't want to do the roller coaster thing either with their customers, instead trying to average it out. I also suspect there's a difference in the talent of the various buyers at the big box stores, so what's happening in one area isn't in another. It's also why my Lowes/HD had higher prices for a while than Menards, which I believe reversed at one point, I haven't been keeping track.

As for prices long term, rumor has it that the prices for lumber have been artificially suppressed for a few years going into the pandemic, as a result of forced harvesting in Canada caused by some sort of issue with a pest or fungus. I believe that has stopped happening. So between the decrease in supply + higher wages + higher gas prices I'd expect prices to be a bit above normal.

[Myles Moran]

Those look like softwood construction lumber prices. It's way different for hardwood lumber and especially sheet goods. I buy from a local supplier. Their prices have come down some on both, but still have a loooong way to go to approach pre pandemic prices. When everything sorts itself out, I doubt prices will ever be that low again.

John

Agreed, it wasn't fun to pay those prices to put up some shelves to hold totes in my basement, but I didn't notice any notable change at my local sawmill for rough hardwood.

[Ken Krawford]

That graph looks encouraging but I don't this my local lumber yard is aware of it yet !

[Larry Frank]

I agree that prices are starting to come down but slowly. With increasing mortgage rates, housing starts will decrease and also demand for building supplies.

[Stan Calow]

I've always believed that, like oil and gas, lumber retailers charge prices based on what it will cost to buy new product, not what the existing product cost them.

[Ron Citerone]

I don't see major hardwood venders lowering prices here, but the small mill guys and the CL guys are offering lower pricing so I think th trend is down, fingers crossed.

[Edwin Santos]

I don't see major hardwood venders lowering prices here, but the small mill guys and the CL guys are offering lower pricing so I think th trend is down, fingers crossed.

Exactly - that's why I posted it. At least the trend appears to be going in the right direction. May not be enough for some, but I'm willing to celebrate any little bit of good news.

Futures are normally an advance indicator anyway, but I did notice in my local HD that a 2x4 stud was down to $3.24 where it was triple that at one point. I don't think hardwood is as volatile as construction lumber. Hardwood definitely escalated in my area, but it didn't quadruple like construction lumber did. My fingers are crossed too.

[Peter Schussheim]

Unless we experience one or more miracles, we are going to be feeling pain regarding pricing on lumber and nearly all goods for a long while. Inflation has not yet peaked and the interest rate increases have done very little to help control inflation, they have done far more damage to the middle class. I've made this informed opinion based on those two previous considerations combined with the continued printing of Monopoly money, hostility towards fossil fuels, supply chain "issues", and multiple examples of central planning by the ruling class.

[Rick Potter]

Housing starts are dropping fast, with the start of the recession, and supply will be more than demand on construction lumber for a while. Many other things are tied to housing starts, like appliances, windows, flooring, etc.

[Brian Tymchak]

My thermometer on lumber prices is cabinet grade ply. Just checked my favorite supplier price list and 1/2" prefinished maple ply is still $150 a sheet. So I see no relief at all yet.