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Thread: Stock market😰

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas McCurnin View Post
    My analyst says interest rates will go down by late Fall.

    So the trend is better news.
    Trends can be crazy short. Bear market rally? That's when the smart money quietly exits the market. Inflation was roughly flat from the previous month but still up 8% YOY. Interest rates won't be going down if inflation stays at 8%. Gas prices down? Sure- if you look at the chart through a microscope.

    Me? I'd be changing analysts. YMMV.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Zellers View Post
    Trends can be crazy short. Bear market rally? That's when the smart money quietly exits the market. Inflation was roughly flat from the previous month but still up 8% YOY. Interest rates won't be going down if inflation stays at 8%. Gas prices down? Sure- if you look at the chart through a microscope.

    Me? I'd be changing analysts. YMMV.
    The "smart money" never exits the market - only the fools do.

  3. #93
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    Never?

    OK...

    "Exits" can mean different things as you know.
    Last edited by Dave Zellers; 08-12-2022 at 11:20 PM.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thomas McCurnin View Post
    All true Dennis, but ...

    Inflation is down in the last month. S&P is up, way up, at a 3 month high as of yesterday. Gas prices are way down in the last 90 days. My analyst says interest rates will go down by late Fall.

    So the trend is better news.
    Tom
    Maybe your analyst is right,I hope so, but with inflation running at 8-9% and with the Fed having an inflation goal of 2-3%, Iíd be very surprised if they can decrease rates this year.
    Dennis

  5. #95
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    I do not understand bonds. I need to study up on them. With that admission, every single bond fund that I am "watching" in my Fidelity account - is still in negative territory for the year, as well as the past 12 month trend. All of them. They are not trending upward. If anything, their trend lines have flattened a bit, but they sure as hell are not going up.

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Drew View Post
    I do not understand bonds. I need to study up on them. With that admission, every single bond fund that I am "watching" in my Fidelity account - is still in negative territory for the year, as well as the past 12 month trend. All of them. They are not trending upward. If anything, their trend lines have flattened a bit, but they sure as hell are not going up.
    If interest rates continue to go up bond funds will continue to go down, using a simple example ,if you own a bond paying say 3% and rates go to 4% on similar bonds ,your bond will go down to yield 4%. It can be more complicated than this depending on maturity, risk,etc, but thatís basically how it works.
    An individual bond held to maturity will however, pay out the promised, usually $1,000, amount.( assuming they donít go bankrupt)
    A bond fund holding multiple bonds will react in the same way,but there is no ď maturityĒ on a fund since they will usually hold many bonds of different yields and maturities.
    Dennis

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gary Ragatz View Post
    The "smart money" never exits the market - only the fools do.
    The smart money stays away from the market. I bought $500 EE bonds for 35 years. Still getting 6% earnings on them. I have quite a large pile of them.

  8. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Myk Rian View Post
    The smart money stays away from the market. I bought $500 EE bonds for 35 years. Still getting 6% earnings on them. I have quite a large pile of them.
    They're also exempt from state and local income tax, so for you in Michigan you are saving 4.25% tax which is a very good benefit.

    The thing is it has been a long time since EE bonds were paying 6%. For example the annual rate they are paying right now is .10%. So you timed it very well. But I think if you invested in an broad index ETF you would have done better but admittedly with having to stomach volatility along the way. Maybe your strategy is the best way to sleep at night during turbulent markets!

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by dennis thompson View Post
    If interest rates continue to go up bond funds will continue to go down, using a simple example ,if you own a bond paying say 3% and rates go to 4% on similar bonds ,your bond will go down to yield 4%. It can be more complicated than this depending on maturity, risk,etc, but that’s basically how it works.
    An individual bond held to maturity will however, pay out the promised, usually $1,000, amount.( assuming they don’t go bankrupt)
    A bond fund holding multiple bonds will react in the same way,but there is no “ maturity” on a fund since they will usually hold many bonds of different yields and maturities.
    Thank you for that.

    So then it's better to just buy a bond and keep it till it matures, verse bond fund? I am unsure if I can do that with my 'work' 401K account. We do have the option of using Fidelity's Brokerage Link, which lets me buy almost any fund that Fidelity has access to, including all the Vanguard funds.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Drew View Post
    Thank you for that.

    So then it's better to just buy a bond and keep it till it matures, verse bond fund? I am unsure if I can do that with my 'work' 401K account. We do have the option of using Fidelity's Brokerage Link, which lets me buy almost any fund that Fidelity has access to, including all the Vanguard funds.
    I wonít try to answer your question of individual bond purchase vs bond fund purchase, itís far too complicated and the last thing Iím qualified to do is give investment advice.
    Iíd be surprised if a 401k would allow you to buy individual bonds, I know that mine only allowed me to buy stock or bond funds. Just call your 401k provider and ask them.
    I use the Fidelity website very often for stock research and Iíll bet they have some pretty good information on investing in bonds and bond funds.
    Dennis

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Myk Rian View Post
    The smart money stays away from the market. I bought $500 EE bonds for 35 years. Still getting 6% earnings on them. I have quite a large pile of them.
    The ones that are 30+ years old have matured. They're not paying anything.

  12. #102
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    If raising interest rates is the only viable way to arrest inflation, I don't see any downward move on interest rates in the next year or more.

  13. #103
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    Once inflation has been controlled, the Fed will drop interest rates. My analyst says early 2023.
    Regards,

    Tom

  14. #104
    Just wondering , what KIND of analyst? I hope it isnít a guy eagerly looking forward to getting HIS bales of new clean money ! Make
    sure he is not wearing a shirt with way too long sleeves with a lot of numbers stamped on it !

  15. #105
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    I suppose inflation could be controlled by recession. Either way, regular people are screwed. Unless wages go up for regular people, they will fall farther and father behind. And increasing wages are inflationary.

    Somebody has to pay for all the government spending that is being passed. And student debt forgiveness is right around the corner...

    Reality awaits...

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