Gassed up today

[Ron Citerone]

This is my understanding of the situation. I just looked it up, and in Feb 2022, 61% of the price of a gallon of gas in the US was the cost of crude oil which is based on world prices. World prices for crude oil are based on worldwide supply vs demand. The oil companies cost to get that barrel of oil out of the ground doesn't matter, their cost could go down and they would still get a price increase because they charge world pricing. The local supply vs demand doesn't matter, world price sets the price of that barrel of crude oil. Unless the US could flood the world market with crude oil, or convince OPEC to increase supply which they probably can but don't because the higher prices benefit them, it can't impact the world price of crude oil. Seems to me getting off oil is the answer. There is no world price for electricity generated by renewables, it is set by your local utility and local taxes. Your local utility producing electricity from non fossil fuels isn't impacted by anything beyond your local or perhaps national forces. Obviously we can't just wake up tomorrow and eliminate this situation but the direction we need to go is obvious. The only other way I can see is to nationalize the oil and gas companies so they aren't tied to world prices.
I'm by no means an expert so I don't know how this could be accomplished but it seems to me the way to go. Just imagine if tomorrow there was a catastrophic event in Saudi Arabia that wiped out their oil production (around 13% of world production), your cost at the pumps would go up again even if the US was self sufficient and didn't have to import one barrel of oil because the oil companies would charge world prices.

Doug, very good post. I am not thinking nationalizing the oil companies is practical or possible. I do think you are on to something with getting less dependent on oil. Seems to me many people see it as all fossil fuel or all alternate sources. If we had a better mix we would not be at the mercy of dictators sitting on oil wells. This roller coaster has been going on since 1974. Time to pursue every option as part of a long term plan. My 2 cents

[Dave Zellers]

Doug, very good post. I am not thinking nationalizing the oil companies is practical or possible. I do think you are on to something with getting less dependent on oil. Seems to me many people see it as all fossil fuel or all alternate sources. If we had a better mix we would not be at the mercy of dictators sitting on oil wells. This roller coaster has been going on since 1974. Time to pursue every option as part of a long term plan. My 2 cents

Wait. So your proposal is to NOT throw the baby out with the bath water and instead employ a rational well thought out transition away from total dependence on oil?????

What kind of nut-jobbery is this?????

Are you one of them whackos?
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Oh man, if only we could.

When did logic and reason become the enemy?

[Warren Lake]

the quest for gas stuff is not for efficiency, its for 700 or 1000 HP and huge torque. other than the track there is no where to use it. Would it not make more sense for the competition to be gas mileage instead of insane performance no past muscle cars could do.

[Malcolm McLeod]

…to nationalize the oil and gas companies
...

Clearly a political manifesto.

Guessing of course, but betting EV thread got POOF’d due to my economic fact checking. Financial statements::clearly partisan.

Let’s see which way ‘the crowd’ leans on this one. I got money on POOF.

[Doug Garson]

Somehow you need to seperate the price of energy from factors beyond your control. Consider it economics.

[Brian Deakin]

Cost of petrol in United kingdom today

$8.80 per US gallon regular petrol station

Local Costco price $8.19 per US gallon

[Jason Roehl]

the quest for gas stuff is not for efficiency, its for 700 or 1000 HP and huge torque. other than the track there is no where to use it. Would it not make more sense for the competition to be gas mileage instead of insane performance no past muscle cars could do.

Power and efficiency are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The thermal efficiency of a vehicle might be 35% or so. Bump that to 40%, and you’ve increased efficiency, but you’ve also made more energy available for motion.

[Malcolm McLeod]

Somehow you need to seperate the price of energy from factors beyond your control. Consider it economics.

Remove "energy"; and substitute:
Corn
Wheat
Drugs (pharma, not weed)
Soybeans
Beef
Chicken
Websites
Ok, weed
Cotton
Milo
Pork
Lightbulbs
Gastric Bypass Surgery
Lawncare
Pool cleaning
Gummie Bears
Other stuff

Your economic model has a name. Good luck.

[Stan Calow]

Wind supplies 42% of the electricity in Kansas. Thats not puffery or politics.

The number of operating oil rigs before 2020 was around 950. That dropped to 250 in 2020 as demand plummeted and global oil prices went negative. Oil companies, in the honorable business of making money, not serving the needs of the public, made the perfectly normal business decision to lay off workers, shut down exploration, and stop buying equipment. Support industries like pipe manufacturers and fracking sand mines followed suit. Those Canadian tar sands aren't profitable at -$40 a barrel. So when demand jumped back up in a heartbeat in 2021, guess what? Not enough workers or supplies. Now the number of operating rigs is climbing back up, but the lag to meet demand (just like the airlines) is killing us. And the international oil companies kind of like getting $100/barrel again. All the posturing and social media outrage wont change that.

Whether there's plenty of oil in the ground or not, is irrelevant to the price at the pump. Any of us who lived through the energy crisis of the '70s should know not to depend on oil being cheap forever.

Just my opinion, and no, I am too lazy to look up references to numbers.

[Malcolm McLeod]

Wind supplies 42% of the electricity in Kansas. ....

I've lived in Amarillo twice, sitting in Midland now - - and in Amarillo I could wave at neighbors in KS - - so a passing familiarity with high plains wind conditions and I'm guessing this percentage drops when wind speed is less than 9mph. "Calm" may be rare, but it does happen, and it requires either a backup or absence of service. What does KS do? (TX fires up a gas generator.)

The number of operating oil rigs before 2020 was around 950. That dropped to 250 in 2020 as demand plummeted and global oil prices went negative. Oil companies, in the honorable business of making money, not serving the needs of the public, made the perfectly normal business decision to lay off workers, shut down exploration, and stop buying equipment. Support industries like pipe manufacturers and fracking sand mines followed suit. Those Canadian tar sands aren't profitable at -$40 a barrel. So when demand jumped back up in a heartbeat in 2021, guess what? Not enough workers or supplies. Now the number of operating rigs is climbing back up, but the lag to meet demand (just like the airlines) is killing us. And the international oil companies kind of like getting $100/barrel again. All the posturing and social media outrage wont change that. ...

^Accurate and succinct. I'll only add that EV builders love $100/bbl too. (banned) has publicly gushed over $8/gal (@pump >> $170/bbl, give or take). (banned) has reportedly exercised $1.5M in options in EV stock - due to $100/bbl; guessing (banned) love it too. I bet they all REALLY love $120/bbl?

I'm in a building with ~800 young smart energetic people, flogging another 4000-8000 service contractors (fluctuates daily), all trying diligently to get production up (= the price down!!) - with strenuous encouragement from management. Believe it. Or not.

FWIW, I'd like to see oil at $70-$75/bbl - high enough to warrant investment; low enough to minimize drag on the world economy.

[Doug Garson]

I've lived in Amarillo twice, sitting in Midland now - - and in Amarillo I could wave at neighbors in KS - - so a passing familiarity with high plains wind conditions and I'm guessing this percentage drops when wind speed is less than 9mph. "Calm" may be rare, but it does happen, and it requires either a backup or absence of service. What does KS do? (TX fires up a gas generator.)



^Accurate and succinct. I'll only add that EV builders love $100/bbl too. (banned) has publicly gushed over $8/gal (@pump >> $170/bbl, give or take). (banned) has reportedly exercised $1.5M in options in EV stock - due to $100/bbl; guessing (banned) love it too. I bet they all REALLY love $120/bbl?

I'm in a building with ~800 young smart energetic people, flogging another 4000-8000 service contractors (fluctuates daily), all trying diligently to get production up (= the price down!!) - with strenuous encouragement from management. Believe it. Or not.

FWIW, I'd like to see oil at $70-$75/bbl - high enough to warrant investment; low enough to minimize drag on the world economy.

So if your company doubled its production, what impact would that have on the world supply of oil and thus the price of a barrel of crude? If it had any impact OPEC could, and likely would, cut production to maintain the price.

[Malcolm McLeod]

So if your company doubled its production, what impact would that have on the world supply of oil and thus the price of a barrel of crude? If it had any impact OPEC could, and likely would, cut production to maintain the price.

You are exactly correct, but only to a point .... although I have never had cause to travel to an OPEC member state, my trusted partners in crime have, and they tell me that humans live in these countries. Granted, I may have been misled, but I have so far been led to believe that ALL humans share a basic requirement involving nourishment. So OPEC may very well cut production - - until they need to eat.

I think this applies to Pool Cleaning Economics too?

****************
ETA - Here's a thought: Energy Independence. OPEC is now irrelevant.
ETAA - Just checked: Our production in the Permian basin is only up 70% since 2019 (sadly not double).

[Doug Garson]

Your economic model has a name. Good luck.

What name do you give to the current economic model for oil prices? It's not free market capitalism when the price is controlled by a cartel. The real solution is to reduce dependence on world oil which also coincidently, has serious environmental issues.

[Malcolm McLeod]

What name do you give to the current economic model for oil prices? It's not free market capitalism when the price is controlled by a cartel. The real solution is to reduce dependence on world oil which also coincidently, has serious environmental issues.

Unpacking (don't want to miss anything):
I call it capitalism, and I'll grant you that the professors who taught me this may have been delusional. But their intellectual prowess notwithstanding, the name seems to fit. YMMV, as perhaps our professors did. Works for Lawncare Economics too.

The price is not controlled by a cartel, but certainly influenced by them. So perhaps reduce their influence. Lots of ways to do that.

Reduced dependence on world oil is a worthy effort, but remains to be seen if its a solution. Where will your "The North Face" jacket come from? See "Energy Independence" above. See also efforts at solar, wind, nuclear (fission+fusion), H2, NAS, Iron-Air, etc, etc.

If we avoid the serious environmental issues and kill 3,000,000,000 humans is that a good trade? 1,000,000 humans? 10 humans? Where is your tipping point? (My personal goal is 0!)

[Doug Garson]

Not sure how the efforts to fight climate change is killing anyone. Here's a study that links climate change to deaths. "The extraordinarily hot and cold temperatures that are becoming more common as climate change accelerates are responsible for 5 million deaths globally every year."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ew-study-shows