Inflation, Supply Chain Disruptions, and Bringing Forward Purchases

[Luke Dupont]

For the last two years, I've been bringing forward purchases of things that I consider "essential" and that I'll want to have for the next 3-5 years, or a life time.

I correctly predicted stagflation and supply chain disruptions well before the mainstream media / economists recognized this would be an issue. Not really hard to do if you just rid yourself of normalcy bias and think in terms of supply and demand, but I digress...

So far, it has been a net benefit. I built my new Desktop computer (a dual purpose gaming / software development machine, which is designed to run both Windows and 2-3 Linux Distros) just before the semiconductor shortage, and in doing so probably saved $400.

My tool purchases are really hurting, though. If I were to fairly value the Yen against the Dollar, based solely on the quality and quantity of things I can buy in Japan with the Yen versus in the US with the Dollar, I would have cut the value of the dollar before the pandemic by 20-30%, and currently, I would devalue the dollar by no less than 50%. Prices are pretty ridiculous in dollar terms. There's been no real price inflation here in Japan yet, whilst prices of many things are up 20-30% in dollar terms, yet exchange rates have given the dollar a free pass and not factored in inflation. I expect this to reverse in spectacular order, at some point -- though likely not as quickly as anyone sharing my view would be apt to predict.

And what is with shipping from the UK these days? Literally any and everything from the UK costs like $40-$50 to ship, no matter how small. So many tools are now held hostage in that country.

The thing that I probably should have really been hoarding is wood though. Forget gold and silver. Wood is the new gold, it seems
Alas though, I didn't have a stock of wood because I've been moving and living in small apartments and not really woodworking again until just recently.

Anyway, none of this is investing advise, but I am curious if anyone else has been doing or feeling the same. Do you notice the cost of wood and tools increasing, and availability decreasing?

I can only think we should expect more of this in the near future...

[Jason Buresh]

I'm not sure what your work style is, but if there is no inflation in Japan I would be buying some quality Japanese tools and forgetting about shipping from England.

Due to the DIY craze because people had an excess of time on their hands, lumber prices at least for construction lumber were crazy. The other woods went up, but not as bad. At least in my area. Things have somewhat returned normal lately

[Richard Coers]

No idea if it's the same today. but buying quality hand tools in Japan were way higher than buying the same tools in the United States about 10 years ago. Another engineer I worked with went to Japan several times and wanted to bring me back something nice. Turned out the tools were so expensive it was just crazy to buy them where they were made.

[Jim Koepke]

The current prices for tools on ebay are crazy imo. Lucky for me to have purchased all I could years ago.

After building a wood rack a few years ago it was filled up with wood. Haven't bought any for a long time. Though it wouldn't take too many projects to eat through it all.

Maybe it is time for me to hit the yard sales and such next spring to find a few spares and maybe to make some spare cash for some more exotic woods.

jtk

[Scott Winners]

I have been making forced overtime for coming on 2 years and have the tooling to prove it. At this moment I need about 300 bf of poplar to finish my next three projects, new jointer knives I will likely need ~Nov 2022 are already on order.

On the one hand I “need”a small table saw with a good fence on it, but I have a friend at my church with one for now, though I hate to keep leaning on him. Once my jointer knives are here, the next tool I will “need” depends on what wears out next, I think my shop is at critical mass given I am currently limited to 110-120 VAC for the shop donkeys.

My first focus for 2022 is getting ready to downsize, in our current home I carry 8 cords of wood for the stove up to the upper level of our two story home every winter. I am getting to be old enough to have better things to do with my joints. We are planning to list on Feb 2023. As sellers, it is good the market is currently up, as buyers it would be lovely for the market to cool down. There is some hope we could carry two mortgages a year from now, at least for a few months; but not a long term goal to manage a rental property.

Main thing for me is to get the poplar in here as fast as I have room for it so I can get the tools I am keeping into chests and crates for the upcoming move. Once that is done, June-Julyish, next step will be to start burning through my small scraps before the move so there is less of it.

I don’t expect to see prices in the US to come down meaningfully from where they are now, ever. Once we are in a ‘forever’ home I will be looking for enough freezer space to hold a side of beef, 25 salmon and some room to spare, I will bring in hardwoods to season as fast as I can afford them and try to continue to enjoy my life as best I can. And I have decided to take up canning vegetables once we get resettled.

[Assaf Oppenheimer]

I live in Israel. for more than 10 years I have been a dedicated armchair woodworker reading and watching anything I could get my hands on. 8 months ago I finally bit the bullet and began collecting tools. Perfect timing . I feel your pain, my tools purchases are FELT. and on top of that, there is no real vintage tool market to lean on over here. when 50% of cost goes to shipping, buying vintage online is not worth the capital compared to buying premium toolmakers. as a new woodworker, buying a tool that requires fettling can often mean buying tools to fix the tools (and on and on).

What I would have given to have had the financial opportunity and the understanding I have now when I lived in the states around 10 years ago. I would have brought a lot of tools with me.

[Luke Dupont]

I'm not sure what your work style is, but if there is no inflation in Japan I would be buying some quality Japanese tools and forgetting about shipping from England.

Due to the DIY craze because people had an excess of time on their hands, lumber prices at least for construction lumber were crazy. The other woods went up, but not as bad. At least in my area. Things have somewhat returned normal lately

No idea if it's the same today. but buying quality hand tools in Japan were way higher than buying the same tools in the United States about 10 years ago. Another engineer I worked with went to Japan several times and wanted to bring me back something nice. Turned out the tools were so expensive it was just crazy to buy them where they were made.

Prices of nice tools in Japan are quite inflated too, due in part to lack of supply of the really good stuff as old craftsmen pass away, and in part due to the "Kezuroukai" effect.

I do buy "average" quality, factory made Japanese tools quite a bit here. They fill in for a lot of what I need. But I do have like to have some western planes, saws, and chisels due to chronic tendonitis, which makes push tools much easier on my hands than pull, and due to wanting chisels without metal hoops to hit with a softer mallet because of noise considerations.

I'm *mostly* set now, with the exception of a good set of brace bits and some specialty tools like a router and plow plane. I don't have the space for a whole lot more, though, so I'm very careful of what I add and accumulate from here.

Oh, Japanese spokeshaves and a drawknife are also on my list though...