Buy new now or wait

[Keegan Shields]

The “buy now before the price goes up” messaging is a well worn sales tactic (Festool anyone?) and works well in the current economic environment as does the “buy now to reserve your place in line” tactic. No hard feelings for any sales rep trying to make their quarterly quota. We use both at the Fortune 50 company I work at.

I scan tool listings on CL several times each day like a lot of Creekers, and anecdotally, I’ve observed a surplus of used tools in the Austin area compared to a year ago with prices gradually decreasing over time. Many of the listings mention upgrading to a new tool. I read that as people starting to receive their orders and restoring the inventory in our used market.

I recently purchased a 2 year old Grizzly slider from a cabinet shop for $3,200. I ended up selling my hybrid Grizzly cabinet saw for $100 less than I paid for it in about 6 hours. Still inflated prices, but they are slowly coming down.

For me, it would depend on how badly you needed the tool. Do you need it to make money? Is it an upgrade where you can get by with what you have now? I watched CL for 2 years for a deal on a used 15” planer. Finally found one in November, but it’s a hobby for me.

For a business, you need to calculate the opportunity cost - i.e. how much money will you miss out on if you don’t buy the tool? If the inflated tool price is $4k but you are turning away $8k in business every month, then it’s a no brainer.

[Rod Sheridan]

Yup, same in Canada, I can’t imagine prices going down, and sales are greatly increased……Rod.

[Rod Sheridan]

Agreed, also wood working shops are running flat out due to increased customer demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

People have a lot of disposable income due to the pandemic so they’re either renovating or buying hobby machinery, both result in more machinery sales either hobby or commercial……Rod

[Curt Harms]

Deja Vu

This was the mantra in the '70's

And I do agree that this mentality does lead to prices stabilizing at the higher level. People buying now, to avoid higher prices later, legitimize the increases.

I fear the comparison to the late '70s might be accurate. Does anyone remember what happened in the early '80s? With 20% interest to slow inflation? It wasn't pretty.

[Robert London]

Could prices eventually come down? Yes, but we’re talking 18-24 months, and it’s unlikely.

You would need high inventory levels to generate price discounts and have excess raw materials to move. If people stop buying things and warehouses stack up, then a significant price reduction could happen.

But you would most likely need a major economic recession and other factors to happen.

Most of the huge price increases have come from Taiwan and China. A majority of the machines are made in similar factories. That’s why everyone is raising prices. Grizzly, Jet, Powermatic, Shop Fox, Baleigh. They’re all getting their machines from same suppliers, with their own quality and tolerances built into their price points.

Heavy machinery has its own world to deal with. Raising prices 25-30% in 12-18 months is staggering. A 2600 machine is now $4000.

This isn’t happening in other industries, though. I work in high line German auto sales, and BMW, Mercedes and Audi didn’t raise prices 25%. You had nominal 3-5% increases on MSRP this past year.

[Edwin Santos]

Most of the discussion has been on machinery. I continue to speculate about wood prices. For years I have purchased 5x5 1/2" baltic birch for $25-$30/sheet. On Friday I was quoted $67, and that's from a pretty competitive commercial supplier.
Maybe a better case can be made for wood prices coming down because they spiked last spring and came down later in the year, not to pre-pandemic levels but significantly lower than the peak. I'm trying to scavenge my inventory and suddenly I'm treating cut-offs with new respect.

[Jim Becker]

I'm of the mind that one has to make a decision based on "now" for machinery. Yes, there's a chance the some prices might mitigate, but I seriously doubt it's going to be substantial and there's probably an equal chance that prices may continue to escalate. When I have a shop building up or at least a completion date, I'll just order the new saw...the price is going to be what it's going to be.

[Greg Quenneville]

“If you need a machine and don't buy it, then you will ultimately find that you have paid for it and don't have it.”


― Henry Ford

[Scott Clausen]

I fear the comparison to the late '70s might be accurate. Does anyone remember what happened in the early '80s? With 20% interest to slow inflation? It wasn't pretty.

Oh how I remember, I bought my first house and was in a hurry to lock in at 15% before rates went up.

[Lawrence Duckworth]

This is the saw I ordered back in May; canceled it in october cuz the delivery kept getting pushed back and I had to have a saw so I bought a smaller 14" jet Rockler had in stock. I haven't looked but ill bet you can't buy that saw for the same money today. btw, I see china ports are struggling with covid outbreaks again. Rikon 10-347 bandsaw 18 inch Pro 4 HP motor × 1 $2,560.00

Subtotal $2,560.00 Shipping $0.00 Taxes $179.20 Total $2,739.20 USD

[Mike Monroe]

I have an friend who owned a small engine shop. He said back in the 1970's when Carter was president, prices went up quarterly and people were buying lawn mowers and chainsaws at a record pace - to lock in the price before it went up. I see the same thing happening now. Don't wait for the price to come down because the price is never coming back down.

BTW - just got my natural gas bill, price per unit is 42% higher than a year ago. Natural gas is used to make myriad of products. Everything is going up in price and will continue to go up for the foreseeable future. Inflation is real and it's here.

[derek labian]

Anecdotal, I've read many old SCM threads regarding various brands and longstanding models (model that have been around a while. I consistently see discussions regarding the price and its always been considerably cheaper. Some items have doubled in price since mid-2000's.

There are two factors I suggest you consider, 1) what possible savings are you likely to get if "prices come down", and 2) the lost value you to you by not having the machines while you wait. In other words, is the delta in possible savings, worth not having the equipment and its benefits for another year+.

[Mitch schiffer]

Everyone seems to be on the same page. It looks like I will have to do some thinking on what I should try to buy now on the basis of what is most likely to go up more. Unfortunately my truck just broke down so that could hinder what I can afford to buy now.

[John Goodin]

If in a similar situation I would buy now. It seems the risk of prices going up, possibly a lot, is greater than the chance they may come down. If on the other hand, we were in a recession with prices were trending down I would be tempted to wait for prices to bottom out. On second thought no I wouldn't. . .I would go to my wife and say "Right now, I can get a 20 inch planer for the price of what a 15" unit cost six months ago."

[Ronald Blue]

As one looks through the used equipment listings there are prices all over the place. Few that would be a bargain and many that are new prices for used machines. I'm not sure if they look at what the comparable or same model is selling for and then they decide theirs is worth that too or what. I realize many models are hard to get without getting on a list and waiting. The time used to be here that used was half to two thirds of new with a few exceptions. Now if it's in that range it's snatched up quickly usually. I've been contemplating a planer upgrade and watching the used market. What is out there goes quickly it seems unless they price it at new cost and you have to deal with transporting it. New are get on a list and hope it comes in sometime soon. But will prices come down especially for new? Very unlikely. Used might take a dive if things ever get close to the old normal again. However this may be the "new" normal. Even if the machines are on a ship off the coast you can't make the backlog go away overnight. To many factors at work. So if you need it buy it now because it isn't likely going to get cheaper.