Hi All –
There has been some discussion here, and on other boards, about back-orders, price increases, shipping delays, and other market disruptions. I thought it would be worth sharing some of the information that we share internally with managers and staff.

Shipping issues:

• Between port congestion and container shortages, supply networks are reaching a crisis point.
• Inbound volume to North America has overwhelmed ports, dwell times continue to rise.
• Hundreds of thousands of containers are sitting in the water off North American Ports waiting to unload.
• Vessel space back to Asia is being prioritized with full containers, delaying the return of empty containers.
• Container availability in Asia expected to decline sharply in April, leading to rate surges.
• Japan has a massive shortage and is no longer accepting any bookings for new shipments until after May.
• North American sales demand is 109% of available inventories, fueling a continuous re-order process choking out an already strained network.
• North American rail terminals are experiencing 30%+ increases in volume.
• Suppliers are warning of longer turnaround times for orders.

A really good video produced by the WSJ about shipping can be found here..

https://youtu.be/NgIZbRg1vOc

Keep in mind too that there are lots of raw material, components, production equipment, and replacement parts trapped in those containers as well. That will have ripple effects too – adding to the overall delay.
This uncertainty continues to build in our markets.

You've all seen what's gone on with the price of lumber. Costs are continuing to climb everywhere. Reasonable shipping rates for imported products might run in the range of 2-10% of product cost for most woodworking product. Shipping rates today are more than 4 times what they were one short year ago. That means costs have increased by 8-40% or more on replacement inventory, and those costs will be passed on somehow. (and …. just wait until the various Governments find a way to re-coup pandemic deficit spending….).

In short – supply will continue to be spotty, there will be substantial cost pressure on what goods are available, and there is still the looming possibility of Government tax increases and user fees.

All part of the “new normal”.

Cheers (kinda),

Rob