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Thread: Lumber prices going up or down in the future?

  1. #1

    Lumber prices going up or down in the future?

    I priced some lumber for a planned shop addition yesterday and choked on the number. The guy behind the counter said don't wait too long because the prices will be getting worse. Normally I reject such suggestions but in this case I'm not so sure. Where is this all headed?

  2. #2
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    Just based on history, when corporations can blame something else on rising prices, prices will keep rising until people stop buying. With the housing market on fire, I would think prices increases aren't over yet.
    “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness..." - Mark Twain

    Diapers and Politicians need to be changed often... Usually for the same reason.

  3. #3
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    i live up in sawmill country - mills cannot meet market demand - there are not enough trucks to haul logs - there are not enough trucks to haul cut lumber. and there is so many black trees (burned) to be harvested before they begin to deteriorate and become worthless - with not a large enough labor force to harvest them.

    lumber prices are at all time highs and expected to keep rising.
    jerry
    Last edited by jerry cousins; 04-20-2021 at 7:57 PM.
    jerry

  4. #4
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    Chatting with a colleague about this about a week ago, he suggested trying to predict when the current real estate bubble will burst as the best indicator for future lumber pricing drops. Certainly where I live that bubble is being driven by city folks moving out of NYC/Philly to the Jersey shore since they can now work remotely. My best guess is that will start to dry up if/when companies start applying cost of living salary adjustments based on where these people move to; I know mine is talking about doing that.

  5. #5
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    So the stock market is in a big bubble which is probably connected to the housing bubble. Chances are they will both burst together. Stock market bubbles collapse much quicker and deeper because the underlying assets are made of vapors. If? yes, when? weeks or months.

  6. #6
    I was talking with my buddy who is a contractor yesterday and he was told by multiple material suppliers that lumber is going up an additional 20% in the next couple weeks. This is absolute ridiculous.

  7. #7
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    Supply and demand folks. That being said, somebody is making money off of the shortage. Lots of it.
    NOW you tell me...

  8. #8
    I actually run a lumber supply company, and resell prices are way inflated, but not for any real reason. Hardwood lumber, even Walnut, has only gone up 5-7% in cost for me from sawmills. 2x4s are up 200% and I know it's not because the cost of making them has, it's just certain big box suppliers know they can charge that for them right now, because there's a huge demand right now. The cost of making a 2x4 hasn't really gone up. When/if the need dies down and people stop buying them at $9, big box stores will need to drop their prices to keep selling. It's just a matter of where people feel the price justifies making the purchase.

    But on the flip side, if 2x4's being $9 becomes the norm, eventually what will happen is you'll see a large increase in sawmills starting up because there's suddenly 200% more profit in that industry. Then they'll be increased competition from new suppliers and that'll drive the prices down again because of oversupply. They'll be a correction in time one way or another.

  9. #9
    Stuff gets expensive when everybody gets a check at the same time. Once all the money is spent ...prices will go down. In some countries
    most of the money would have gone into savings ....but we aren’t greedy ,we want to help things get better !

  10. #10
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    Interesting and related National Law Review article.
    I always forget . . . Is it the letter "S" or the letter "C" that is silent in the word scent?
    - Glenn (the second "N" is silent) Bradley

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