Anyone putting off projects because of material price increases?

[Matthew Hills]

I know prices have shot up a lot recently; do we really expect them to come down significantly in a year's time? or just stop increasing as rapidly?

Matt

[Terry Wawro]

I've delayed two projects. A few years ago I redid our deck but kept the staircase because it was still in good shape and I had other more pressing things to get done. I had planned on redoing it during covid but the PT lumber suddenly disappeared at all our local suppliers. When it showed back up weeks later, the price was way too high.

I was also going to replace about 120 feet of wood privacy fence but that got put off too.

[Patrick Kane]

I purchased a ton of walnut in the fall, but i havent noticed the price of hardwoods increase dramatically. I assume you are specifically talking about construction and not furniture/woodworking? I might do a TF covered front porch, but i am in no rush to start on it. I dont think the material prices would impact me too much, because i purchased the green material from a one-man sawyer. However, i am very happy i purchased my materials for a TF shed last march, because months later i saw a sheet of 1/2" OSB shot up to $20-23, and i was blown away. I think i purchased 20 odd sheets for $5-6 a piece.

[Rod Sheridan]

None of my projects require a lot of material so no I'm not delaying or cancelling them......Rod.

[Edwin Santos]

If you were to put a project on hold, why would you be doing so?
With the expectation that prices will come down in the future?

Has anyone ever done that successfully?

[Bob Falk]

I was looking for a sheet of 1 1/8" Advantech and of the 3 places I called none had it in stock. On the occasion I want to see just how bad it is I'll hop on a box store website and see what's in stock. Simple things like 2x4s or plywood. If I had no choice I'm sure I would just pony up and pay the price but next spring the prices are going to be half what they are now.

Lets hope prices go down, but knowing the wood products industry they will keep prices high if they can get away with it. I built a house addition and shop about 5 years ago and used Avantech subflooring and Zip system wall and roof sheathing. At that time, I paid about $30 a sheet for 3/4" Avantech and it was hard to swallow the huge premium over regular OSB. I can't imagine what it costs today, but I'm sure $30 would seem cheap now. It got rained on several times and never swelled. Great products for the midwest where a gusher thunderstorm can hit you about anytime in the summer.

[Andrew More]

Building a garage extension of 16'x22' onto the existing garage. I did a shed project last summer/fall as prices were spiking in an attempt to fix the space issues without having to spend a lot of money on lumber given the current prices. I also figured that the shed would be a good addition regardless of whatever else I did.

At this point it's been over a year, and I don't know what will drive prices back down again, or when it will happen. Since I am building the extension to avoid tripping over bikes and other stuff I am okay with moving forward, even if it does add some costs, rather than waiting. For those who are waiting, what do you think will cause prices to fall again? In the summer/fall falling prices made more sense to me, since it was a short shock, but now it's been long enough for people to start accepting those prices, making decreases less likely.

The catalyst for a fall in prices, IMHO, would be another crash in the housing market, but that seems unlikely given the K shaped recovery, at least until interest rates rise to 3-4%. The last ten years, and the trap the Fed is currently in makes it more likely we'll see some form of Yield Curve Control before that happens.

[Andrew Seemann]

I'm going back and forth on a shop extension to add a finishing room and more storage/office area. It won't likely be more than 24x14 (after that I would need to deal with variances etc), so the cost increase due to lumber, though unpleasant, isn't unbearable. The main thing is the longer I wait it becomes, in theory, less valuable to me as I will get to use it one year less.

I probably will make some design changes like using 2x4s with 3/8 plywood for walls rather than 2x6s and 7/16 OSB and then potentially adding a layer of foam board to make up for the lost insulation space. Heck if the prices of panel products go up much more, it might be cheaper to sheath the building in #3 pine.

I've been finding even furniture lumber prices going up 20%-50%. I got a quote for 4/4 S/B H+M white oak last year at about $4 a board foot. When I bought some last week it was $6 a board foot. Cherry was up around 25% in that time as well.

[Tom M King]

I'm putting off those two projects because I have plenty of other stuff on the to-do list to keep me busy. Over the 46 years that I've been in the building stuff business, I've seen material prices do a Lot of fluctuating. This is the biggest jump I can remember, but lumber future prices are already starting to go down. Material prices aren't keeping me from doing anything, but I'll watch for a while, to see where they go.

[Alex Zeller]

Lets hope prices go down, but knowing the wood products industry they will keep prices high if they can get away with it. I built a house addition and shop about 5 years ago and used Avantech subflooring and Zip system wall and roof sheathing. At that time, I paid about $30 a sheet for 3/4" Avantech and it was hard to swallow the huge premium over regular OSB. I can't imagine what it costs today, but I'm sure $30 would seem cheap now. It got rained on several times and never swelled. Great products for the midwest where a gusher thunderstorm can hit you about anytime in the summer.

Nobody can say for certain but I'm pretty sure it will come down. When prices are high mills are trying to get as much wood as they can to make as much as they can. That means loggers are seeing a high demand so they are out straight. If there was a shortage of trees to be harvested I could see differently. If it was shingles and the price of oil was high I could see the price staying high. The biggest problem i can see is finding workers.

[Gregg Markowski]

Monetary inflation is on its way. It will replace any reductions in supply or demand based increases we may see. IMO. To wait is futile. My thing is our income is now fixed ( thanks to COVID )and rather restrictive, so needs and wants are more closely scrutinized. Using whatever I can scrounge up in the scrap pile is making me more resourceful and the stack of walnut I got when I bought my shop machines will likely end up on my drawer fronts instead of some more stylish species. I relate to the Progressive Commercial were Jamie picks up the free wood, cracks me up as sad as it is (true) that we are even in this situation.Ride Along | Progressive Insurance Commercial

[Edwin Santos]

One of my posts in this thread, and a few other interesting ones have disappeared. They appeared benign to me with nothing to do with politics or controversy.

Were they lost due to a technical issue? Or were they deleted by a moderator without an indication of why? If the latter, the courtesy of a notification or a reason would be appreciated.
Some of the conversation is interesting and discussion is how we learn from each other.

[John K Jordan]

One of my posts in this thread, and a few other interesting ones have disappeared. They appeared benign to me with nothing to do with politics or controversy.

Were they lost due to a technical issue? Or were they deleted by a moderator without an indication of why? If the latter, the courtesy of a notification or a reason would be appreciated.
Some of the conversation is interesting and discussion is how we learn from each other.

Edwin, could you be thinking of posts in a similar thread? https://sawmillcreek.org/showthread....-in-six-months

JKJ

[Edwin Santos]

Edwin, could you be thinking of posts in a similar thread? https://sawmillcreek.org/showthread....-in-six-months

JKJ

John,
I believe you're right. Thanks for the clarification!

Edwin

[Jeff Heil]

In the process of building a home now. We were fortunate to start planning last fall and lock in materials and price contracts at the end of 2020. We saved 15% on our windows by buying them before the 2021 price increase.

Our builder tells us the materials to build our home have increased 78% from where we purchased them. We have had to plan ahead with longer lead times on some items and factored that into our timeline and plans. We had a 12 week lead time for our siding as an example and have already purchased the appliances.

I am concerned about the materials walking off the job site, but our contractor has taken measures to hopefully prevent that from happening. The pile of 10' 2x4's makes me cringe when I think about how much $$ is sitting there. We are fortunate to be able to stay in our current home and will list it for sale once we know the new one will be done on time. We had a pad cleared and prepared for a future outbuilding for a 24'x40 workshop. Still waiting to see if that will happen this year due to material costs. So that is being impacted by material costs and availability. My short-term plan is to work out of half of the oversized garage for my woodworking shop.

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