Any chance of construction lumber prices going down in six months?

[Alex Zeller]

Any time there's a strong demand for a product the prices will rise to match that demand. At the same time those selling said item will increase the supply to take full advantage of the high price. Right now labor is an issue. Lots of places around here are hiring but nobody seems to want to work. I often hear ads on the radio for companies trying to hire people at wages close to $20/hr. If nothing else the bottom will fall out during the next recession.

[Bill Dufour]

I'd still pay nearly a $1/gallon in taxes here. That varies per location, you happen to live in a cheap state. Take a second to thank goodness you don't have the California fuel tax burden. I'll let you draw your own conclusions on the different political systems of those two states.[/QUOTE]


California fuel tax is about 47 cents per gallon on gasoline and 36 cents on diesel. Plus sales tax. Sounds like a lot less then in your state? Of course California fuel is custom blended to met California smog requirements so no outside competition.
I am surprised our taxes are less then yours.
We still have some of the worlds largest oil fields producing.
Bill D

[Brian Holcombe]

The Canadian softwoods tariffs is I believe 30%. So if Pres Biden eliminates this ridiculous tariff that might help to bring down prices and increase supply of Canadian softwoods coming into the US. On fuel prices, this is two fold. A number of Texas Gulf coast refineries went down in the storm due to freezing and electrical blackouts. This seriously disrupted supply of diesel and premium fuels. Also Russia and OPEC are manipulating global supply to try to get prices up. I suspect that we'll see oil stabilize at about $65/bbl. And BTW, there is really nothing any president or congress can do to change oil pricing as oil pricing is completely dependent on international conditions.

The spike in oil pricing is partially due to disruptions but mainly due to oil companies (globally) taking projects offline during the supply glut last year in February. Some of them come back online quickly, others do not. Last year the industry’s capacity could soak up short term disruptions, this year it cannot since they are running very lean operations.

[Alex Zeller]

When I was close to finishing building my house a hurricane hit Florida. People were renting u-hauls and filling them with lumber to drive down to Florida. As a result prices shot up like crazy. I beat the rush (and had to drive to 3 different stores to get the shingles I needed) so the price increase didn't impact me. Of course that was a smaller event localized to a few states and didn't impact the mills or logging. This may be larger but when there's demand people see money and look for a way to fill that demand. That always drives prices back down. It may not be until next spring but they'll come down.

[Steve Rozmiarek]

I posted about the sheet goods prices earlier in this thread, but see it's alive again so thought I'd put an update up.

The 5/8" roof sheeting we use most often, I was paying upper $20's for 2 years ago, late last year it went into the $30's, a month ago it was $50. Today it is $83.95 per sheet, and I can only buy 45 sheets because thats all they have.

[Edwin Santos]

This may be larger but when there's demand people see money and look for a way to fill that demand. That always drives prices back down. It may not be until next spring but they'll come down.

I sincerely hope you're right. The problem is, I've never had any luck timing these things.
It seems that everything in our world is more complicated than it used to be. I wonder if the price increases we're seeing across all kinds of industries/commodities are due to a confluence of factors.
Pandemic supply chain disruption might certainly be one.
Re-directed consumer demand might be another.
I've even heard it said that with the money supply that has been flooded into the economy, it's the currency that has been devaluing. So the price increases are not a function of supply and demand of the good or service, but the expression of its value in dollar terms. This could influence asset values too, which might in part explain the rapid escalation in home prices.
Combination of all of the above plus other issues?
Who knows. Way above the pay grade of a luddite hand cutting dovetail joints in a wood shop (ha).

[Mark Blatter]

I read that one of the biggest drivers in the price spikes of lumber is that supply has dropped a significant amount. Canada, like the western US, had many forests hit hard with beetles in the 1990s. Unlike the US, Canada allowed those forests to be harvested, which they did for many years. However, from what I read, much of those forests were cleared out by the mid 2000s. What kept the price of lumber down for years was the great recession and housing collapse. I read that the high point for lumber usage was in 2004 I think, at about 74 billion board feet. It dropped by large amount, though I don't remember how much. A few years ago it was running about 50 billion annually, and over the past year has increased about 10%, to around 55 billion board feet. That increase, combined with the mills shutting down for a few months, and more importantly Canada not producing nearly as much, has resulted in much higher prices.

A likely solution that will help us out is that there is lots of lumber in Europe and we will start seeing large amounts being imported into the country soon. Likely we will never see $2.00 for a 2x4x8 again, but it should help bring down the price to perhaps half of what we see today. At least that is my hope.

A side note, a friend was starting construction on a 115 unit apartment complex in June of 2020. His framer told him that lumber prices were going up, so they bought the entire amount of lumber needed immediately. He had to pay $5000 per month to store it all for 6 months. That move cost him $30,000 in storage fees, but saved him overall over $250,000 due to higher lumber costs.

[William Bell]

Bought 10 sheets of 3/4 inch plywood, worst junk I ever saw for covering caissons after they were drilled. $67.98 at Home Depot per sheet. Prices will go down but we will never see 2x4,s at $3 again unless we our in a depression. Personally, I think that is where we are headed.

[Carroll Courtney]

Good Youtube on the subject
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ssa7yooX3k

[Larry Edgerton]

I posted about the sheet goods prices earlier in this thread, but see it's alive again so thought I'd put an update up.

The 5/8" roof sheeting we use most often, I was paying upper $20's for 2 years ago, late last year it went into the $30's, a month ago it was $50. Today it is $83.95 per sheet, and I can only buy 45 sheets because thats all they have.

I was going to say that 100% was a pretty conservative estimate. My local supplier keeps track of a list of essential materials and it is up 260% from a year and a half ago. I am getting calls from jobs I bid that did not fly over a year ago telling me to go ahead. I just laugh.

[Larry Edgerton]

3/4" Hard Maple Plywood C-2 UV Coated-2-Sides 102.96 100.80 96.00 93.60

I have a kitchen coming up and just looked up good 2 sides prefinished 3/4" and was surprised that it has only gone up $5.00 a sheet by the full lift. I was kind of hoping that that lift I have in the barn was worth more, damn'it!

[Peter Kelly]

I don't see how anyone is going to want to (or afford to) build a deck with prices like this.

[Dave Sabo]

Steel and aluminum posts.

Composite decking.