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Thread: Any chance of construction lumber prices going down in six months?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
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    Modesto, CA, USA
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    Any chance of construction lumber prices going down in six months?

    Lumber is about 100% higher with covid since 12 months ago. More homes are starting to be built. Any thoughts on construction lumber prices in the next 12 months?
    Bill D

  2. #2
    I think once Disneyland reopens, the prices will fall.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dufour View Post
    Lumber is about 100% higher with covid since 12 months ago. More homes are starting to be built. Any thoughts on construction lumber prices in the next 12 months?
    Bill D
    None. That’s just the way it is when everybody “comes into a lot of money”.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
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    SE PA - Central Bucks County
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    Honestly...I doubt there will be any meaningful reduction until maybe later in the year. Supply and transportation is a challenge. take a look off the left coast at all the ships waiting for very long times to get unloaded. That's one thing that's contributing.
    --

    The most expensive tool is the one you buy "cheaply" and often...

  5. #5
    I would expect prices to go up as cold weather states start construction projects.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
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    Hoschton, Georgia
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    116
    I think the next year is going to be a rollercoaster in the economy. I predict a lot of foreclosures, evictions and bankruptcies from people who have been financially ruined by last years closures. However, there is also a housing shortage, at least around here. We haven't seen many houses built since the crash of 2008 and the demand has exceeded the supply. It will be interesting to see which of these two factors has the most influence on the economy. I expect building materials to remain high till at least the end of the year. The spread between the haves and the have-nots will take another leap in 2021.

  7. #7
    Robert ,thats possible . But there are not many U.S. Citizens who are “have nots”. Wealth attracts the needy.

  8. #8
    Join Date
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    black river falls wisconsin
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    wonder how many people are working on their house cause where forced to be stuck in it. cant spend money on that dream vacation ...

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
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    McKean, PA
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    I would doubt it. There has been a noticeable increase in new home construction around here in the past month and the home stores were busy through most of the past 9 months. For a while you had to wait 2-3 weeks to get any amount of treated lumber. Even drywall was in low supply. I know I personally did a couple of minor remodeling projects during the fall. With the real estate market starving for homes to buy, I see lots of new construction in the future. I have a nephew in Texas, who placed bids on several new homes and before they could finish the paper work, they were out bid, so they are building a new home.
    Lee Schierer
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  10. #10
    As long as interest rates stay low there will be a demand for houses and builders will build. If inflation kicks up, and interest rate increases is the cure, things could change in a big way.

    So my call is no price reduction in building supplies as long as the economy stays strong via low rates.

    Free predictions are worth every penny paid for them.

  11. #11
    Steel prices are up 50% since 1/1/21. The same happened in ‘16.

  12. #12
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dufour View Post
    Lumber is about 100% higher with covid since 12 months ago. More homes are starting to be built. Any thoughts on construction lumber prices in the next 12 months?
    Bill D
    My source said there was a chance. Didn't indicate how much chance. I could ask again or just flip a coin.

    crystal_ball_2.jpg

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
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    Cambridge Vermont
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    There's too many unknowns right now. As more and more people get the vaccine it'll help companies get back to full production. At the same time fuel prices are jumping up. That's going to make it hard on everything from the loggers to trucking. Despite the push by some for EVs I don't see skidders or semi's hauling logs as switching any time soon.

  14. #14
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    Why would prices go down? They have to stabilize first, and they are definitely not doing that. I've bought units of 7/16 and 5/8 ZIP sheeting 4 times since last summer, price on the 7/16 started at $23, and is now up to $36, but stock is low. 5/8 started lower, at $22 and now is $45. There is too much volatility out there, wholesalers have inventory priced all over the place, so nothing is going to go down until the wacky priced stock is used up and replaced with more consistent cost materials. Maybe next year if the government doesn't do something stupid. haha, better buckle up.

  15. #15
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Zeller View Post
    There's too many unknowns right now. As more and more people get the vaccine it'll help companies get back to full production. At the same time fuel prices are jumping up. That's going to make it hard on everything from the loggers to trucking. Despite the push by some for EVs I don't see skidders or semi's hauling logs as switching any time soon.
    You're kidding yourself if you think a vaccine will make the government get out of the way and let loggers work. I'll bet that diesel prices will be double by the end of summer. Buy the lumber you need now, you won't see it cheaper until the government lets go of this pandemic nonsense, which has a likelihood of nearly 1%.

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