I read that one of the biggest drivers in the price spikes of lumber is that supply has dropped a significant amount. Canada, like the western US, had many forests hit hard with beetles in the 1990s. Unlike the US, Canada allowed those forests to be harvested, which they did for many years. However, from what I read, much of those forests were cleared out by the mid 2000s. What kept the price of lumber down for years was the great recession and housing collapse. I read that the high point for lumber usage was in 2004 I think, at about 74 billion board feet. It dropped by large amount, though I don't remember how much. A few years ago it was running about 50 billion annually, and over the past year has increased about 10%, to around 55 billion board feet. That increase, combined with the mills shutting down for a few months, and more importantly Canada not producing nearly as much, has resulted in much higher prices.
A likely solution that will help us out is that there is lots of lumber in Europe and we will start seeing large amounts being imported into the country soon. Likely we will never see $2.00 for a 2x4x8 again, but it should help bring down the price to perhaps half of what we see today. At least that is my hope.
A side note, a friend was starting construction on a 115 unit apartment complex in June of 2020. His framer told him that lumber prices were going up, so they bought the entire amount of lumber needed immediately. He had to pay $5000 per month to store it all for 6 months. That move cost him $30,000 in storage fees, but saved him overall over $250,000 due to higher lumber costs.
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