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Thread: California to ban internal combustion engine cars by 2035

  1. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Garson View Post
    Some countries are already there, Canada, 67% renewable and 82% non GHG emitting sources. According to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there are seven countries already at, or very, near 100 percent renewable power: Iceland (100 percent), Paraguay (100), Costa Rica (99), Norway (98.5), Austria (80), Brazil (75), and Denmark (69.4). The main renewables in these countries are hydropower, wind, geothermal, and solar.
    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2...ady-happening/
    Canada has huge amounts of hydroelectric power. So much so that there is a 500,000 volt power line running through Minnesota into Canada. Canada buys power from the USA in the winter due to lots of electric heat and the USA buys power from Canada in the summer for air conditioning.

    Just about every country would like to meet their electric power needs with hydroelectric, but many places don't have the rivers to power hydroelectric.

  2. #227
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Elfert View Post
    Canada has huge amounts of hydroelectric power. So much so that there is a 500,000 volt power line running through Minnesota into Canada. Canada buys power from the USA in the winter due to lots of electric heat and the USA buys power from Canada in the summer for air conditioning.

    Just about every country would like to meet their electric power needs with hydroelectric, but many places don't have the rivers to power hydroelectric.
    I haven't looked to see where Denmark gets it's power but it's certainly not from hydro. Maybe nuclear? Iceland is geothermal and hydro.

    Mike
    Last edited by Mike Henderson; 10-29-2020 at 9:12 PM.

  3. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Henderson View Post
    I haven't looked to see where Denmark gets it's power but it's certainly not from hydro. Maybe nuclear? Iceland is 100% geothermal.

    Mike
    I don't know the percentage, but we saw lots of wind turbines when we were in Copenhagen a few years ago.

  4. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Elfert View Post
    Canada has huge amounts of hydroelectric power. So much so that there is a 500,000 volt power line running through Minnesota into Canada. Canada buys power from the USA in the winter due to lots of electric heat and the USA buys power from Canada in the summer for air conditioning.

    Just about every country would like to meet their electric power needs with hydroelectric, but many places don't have the rivers to power hydroelectric.
    Yes, 60% of our power is from hydro and we do buy and sell power with the US. But we are a net exporter of power, we export about four times as much as we import. While we may have an advantage when it comes to hydro, I think the US probably has greater solar power potential than Canada. I think the greatest hurdle to converting the majority of cars to electric using non GHG produced power is not technical. It can't be done overnight but doing it by 2035 should not be impossible. The biggest obstacle will be the oil and gas industry trying to maintain their profitability.

  5. #230
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Matthews View Post
    My car costs me $250 per month, and I could buy it outright for $25,000.

    At $ .22 per KWH each mile costs me about $ .05.

    At $ 2.00 per gallon, each mile costs about $.08.

    15,000 miles at $.05 = $750 for a year

    15,000 miles at $.08 = $1200 for a year.

    That doesn't include oil changes, belts, etc.

    It's not out of reach, today and prices are coming down. https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2...v-cost-tabless
    What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.

  6. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anthony Whitesell View Post
    Then there are the losses to consider. Fuel is consumed to make heat (loss) to make steam (loss) to turn a turbine (loss) to make electricity that travels over power lines (loss) through transformers (loss, though they are usually 99+% efficient) to the charging station converted into the power to charge the car (loss). Or you could put the fuel straight into your car (one loss).
    And the electricity to run the pumps at the station, the fuel to run the truck that delivered it there (and/or power the pumps to run it down the pipeline from the refinery), the energy used transporting the crude and during refining, and probably a bunch I didn't think of in the time it took to type this. If you're going to count losses, count all of them.
    Yoga class makes me feel like a total stud, mostly because I'm about as flexible as a 2x4.
    "Design"? Possibly. "Intelligent"? Sure doesn't look like it from this angle.
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  7. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Helmich View Post
    What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.
    Certainly not cheap, if/when it happens and it comes out of your pocket. That said, Tesla warranty on its battery is 8 years or 150K miles. Toyota's (hybrid/plug-in) is 10/150K. Nissan Leaf is 8/100K. That's comparable to the better ICE drivetrain warranties and I'd expect those numbers to go up as the tech matures.

    A related question: how does depreciation on a Tesla S compare to comparable cars?
    Yoga class makes me feel like a total stud, mostly because I'm about as flexible as a 2x4.
    "Design"? Possibly. "Intelligent"? Sure doesn't look like it from this angle.
    We used to be hunter gatherers. Now we're shopper borrowers.
    The three most important words in the English language: "Front Towards Enemy".
    The world makes a lot more sense when you remember that Butthead was the smart one.
    You can never be too rich, too thin, or have too much ammo.

  8. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Helmich View Post
    What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.
    What kills batteries isn't daily driving, it's excess heat generated during rapid charging (level 3). Most of the first generation batteries were pretty small (under 30 kWh) and had no coolant in the battery pack.

    Most current versions do have thermal management.

    From Kia's Warranty page:

    The Lithium-Ion Polymer Battery (EV Battery) Capacity warranty coverage period is 8 years or 100,000 miles from the Date of First Service, whichever comes first, for capacity loss below 70% of the original battery capacity.

    ***
    First generation Nissan Leaf and Toyota Prius battery packs replaced by dealer are stupid expensive.

    Out of warranty, there are plenty of reasonable alternatives.

    https://evcharging.enelx.com/news/bl...batteries-last

    Consumer Reports estimates the average EV battery pack’s lifespan to be at around 200,000 miles, which is nearly 17 years of use if driven 12,000 miles per year.

    More current battery packs appear to be lasting longer than most people keep cars. Car and Driver figures we keep cars about 10 years, longer for pickups.

    (No wonder, when a F150 costs nearly $45,000)



    https://www.myev.com/research/ev-101...s-battery-last

    I think EV offerings are improving rapidly, so I would only recommend shorter leases.

  9. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Helmich View Post
    What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.
    According to Tesla, their Model 3 battery has a lifespan of 300,000 to 500,000 miles. A replacement Tesla battery is $3000 to $7000 so take the average cost divided by the average life span and you get $0.0125 or 1.25 cents per mile or if you drive 15,000 miles per year once every 26.6 years or less than $200/ year. By comparison the average lifespan of an internal combustion engine is about 200,000 miles and the replacement cost is $4000 to $5000 every 13 years or 2.25 cents per mile. Realistically not many keep their cars 13 years much less 26 years.

  10. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anthony Whitesell View Post
    I was just thinking something similar. How many gallons of gasoline does it take to run the generate to recharge a Tesla one time?

    Then there are the losses to consider. Fuel is consumed to make heat (loss) to make steam (loss) to turn a turbine (loss) to make electricity that travels over power lines (loss) through transformers (loss, though they are usually 99+% efficient) to the charging station converted into the power to charge the car (loss). Or you could put the fuel straight into your car (one loss).
    The answer is zero. Why would you charge the battery of a Tesla from a gas powered generator? That's like asking how many solar panels or wind turbines does it take to fill up the gas tank on an ICE vehicle?

  11. #236
    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Garson View Post
    According to Tesla, their Model 3 battery has a lifespan of 300,000 to 500,000 miles. A replacement Tesla battery is $3000 to $7000 so take the average cost divided by the average life span and you get $0.0125 or 1.25 cents per mile or if you drive 15,000 miles per year once every 26.6 years or less than $200/ year. By comparison the average lifespan of an internal combustion engine is about 200,000 miles and the replacement cost is $4000 to $5000 every 13 years or 2.25 cents per mile. Realistically not many keep their cars 13 years much less 26 years.
    What will probably drive the scraping of electric vehicles is the electronics. That is, advances will be made in what the electronics can do, probably eventually no-hands driving, and the electronics in the older cars will not support those new features. I would not be surprised to eventually see EVs that go from cradle to grave with the original battery.

    Mike
    Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good.

  12. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Henderson View Post
    What will probably drive the scraping of electric vehicles is the electronics. That is, advances will be made in what the electronics can do, probably eventually no-hands driving, and the electronics in the older cars will not support those new features. I would not be surprised to eventually see EVs that go from cradle to grave with the original battery.

    Mike
    Kinda like cell phones, my 15 year old cell phone probably still works almost as well as it did when it was new but my "new" 5 year old cell phone does so much more that I'm not interested in using the "old" phone. There's a lot of talk these days about how things aren't built to last, there's some truth to that but I suspect part of what drives that is that the new products outperform the products they replace. As Daimler said in an earlier post of mine, there will be more advances in cars in the next ten years than the last one hundred years. Why would you design a product to last 20 years if it will be obsolete in 5 years? Better to design it to last 5 years and be recyclable when it's obsolete.
    Last edited by Doug Garson; 10-30-2020 at 12:04 AM. Reason: Spelling

  13. #238
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    I have to wonder if in 15 years they will have replacement batteries that fit or will it be like cordless tools that can no longer buy a battery for even if the tool is fine. AFAIK each makers battery is unique and do not even interchange between models.
    Bil lD

  14. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dufour View Post
    I have to wonder if in 15 years they will have replacement batteries that fit or will it be like cordless tools that can no longer buy a battery for even if the tool is fine. AFAIK each makers battery is unique and do not even interchange between models.
    Bil lD
    Good point, certainly for power tools, you could have a standard interface between the tool and the battery just like standard batteries for flashlights (AA. AAA. etc.) Then your Dewalt drill could use a Dewalt battery or a Duracell battery or Bosch battery. I think it is more difficult for electric cars as the battery is integrated into the vehicle as part of the structure and the battery pack contains battery management circuits which integrate with the vehicle's computer. Certainly if cars could be designed with standard format batteries that could be exchanged like flashlight batteries it might be a solution to the charging time issue. Wonder if that approach has been considered by car designers?

  15. #240
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    I question the ownership premise for vehicles as a longterm strategy for car makers.

    Volvo is already testing a "pay as you go" model.

    Much as data carriers bundle a phone in with plans, I wonder if subscription services are what car makers (such as Tesla) have in mind.

    Certainly major cities would benefit from a fleet of cars that could be "called to order" as needed. In a city like Boston, I see this as an answer to outrageous parking expenses and daily gridlock.

    Personal car ownership is expensive, why buy for something you only use a few hours each day?


    https://www.volvocars.com/us/care-by-volvo/

    https://www.easyelectriccars.com/robotaxi/

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