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Thread: Global warming and the weather

  1. #1
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    Global warming and the weather

    We are already at “V” in the named storms list. We have had record wildfires in California and Australia. I have personally witnessed the dying off of our coral reefs and the explosion of sargasso weed in the ocean. I personally don’t see how it isn’t easy to connect the industrial revolution and global warming.
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    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

    https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/upton_sinclair_138285

    This post sent from the fringes of Hurricane Sally.

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    I’ve heard so many claims and counterclaims about human based climate change, natural changes via sunspot activity, tidal and jet stream shifts, alterations in the earth’s “wobble” activity, my mind boggles.
    I do know Canadian forests suffered from acid rain, a result of industrial production.
    Within the last 12 months air quality remarkably improved with the shutting down of many industrial economies due to the pandemic.
    The forest fires on the west coast of North America are the worst in recorded history. Just like hurricanes on the East coast and Caribbean, it affects many of us in this area.
    I have no answers about who is right, the claimers or deniers; every time I look at the premise behind the movie “Interstellar” I see a very disturbing future for my family who will outlive me.
    Young enough to remember doing it;
    Old enough to wish I could do it again.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Rutherford View Post
    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

    https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/upton_sinclair_138285

    This post sent from the fringes of Hurricane Sally.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_ZDQKq2F08

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    The vast majority of actual scientists agree. I know, populism means that science is bad. But, I'm an engineer.. so I'm a janitor of science. I choose not to stick my head in a hole and ignore things.
    ~mike

    scope creep

  6. #6
    I think the recent improvements in air quality due to pandemic cutbacks are a good indicator that changes in human behavior could make a significant difference.

    Malcolm, keep your head down and fingers crossed. Let's hope we don't have a "Z" hurricane this year!

  7. #7
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    I remember a certain number of decades ago there was a debate among scientists concerned about an upcoming decrease in global temperatures and that the planet was destined to go into a deep freeze in our lifetime. Today its the opposite, the problem seems to be a lack of understanding and trust when the global health predictions are what we seem to be receiving. Honestly I don't believe that any human being or group has the knowledge to predict any major long or short term environmental changes. I just doubt that humans are that smart yet.

    Just months ago I think someone was investigating whether we could destroy hurricanes with a nuclear weapon. Our planet has been changing constantly for millions of years, at least that is what most scientists believe. The question is who do we trust to make any kind of decision concerning the current status, there are some today that honestly believe that global warming is not a concern. No matter what side of the coin you trust I think we all believe that clean air is definitely a good idea, beyond that I am skeptical concerning scientific predictions. I do know that we cannot adjust to major reductions in our energy consumption in just a few decades without reducing the world population and accepting a much lower standard of living. It is absolutely inconceivable to think that we can replace nuclear power with batteries based on current technology and that is only 30% of our power consumption. Solar power is great if you have the battery technology to go with it, but we don't. The west coast made a bad mistake when they put to much emphasis on hydro-electric power thirty years ago and it is declining in reliability today. The nuclear plants they stopped building would be a blessing if they were running today.

    I doubt that the sky is going to fall today or next year, not for along time yet. I accept that there are visible changes ongoing today but who is to say that its not part of the natural cycle of our planet. Youngsters hollering and screaming in a panic are not much of a concern, they just don't understand our capacity to innovate and how long it might take to develop an appropriate plan. Yes the Coral Reef is almost totally destroyed and all of the dinosaurs are gone as well but the summer heat isn't any worse than 60 years ago when I was a child. Winter weather patterns in my area seem to be a bit warmer but I doubt its enough of a change to even calculate an effect even if we knew how.

    Just my 2cents.
    Last edited by Keith Outten; 09-16-2020 at 11:13 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bradley Gray View Post
    I think the recent improvements in air quality due to pandemic cutbacks are a good indicator that changes in human behavior could make a significant difference.

    Malcolm, keep your head down and fingers crossed. Let's hope we don't have a "Z" hurricane this year!
    Well said.

    Where I live we've almost completely eliminated thermal power generation of electricity. We now don't have smog days, or visible smog.

    The science is in on GHG effects on global warming, it's time to eliminate fossil fuels for any application that doesn't require them, all I can think of are aviation and marine transportation, perhaps some forestry and agriculture as well.

    I don't care whether my hot water is heated by electricity or NG, so in the spring I'm going to replace my gas water heater with an electric one. One easy method to reduce my GHG emissions. Similarily, the next vehicle will be electric.

    It's not difficult to change, if we don't we're toast.............Rod.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Outten View Post
    I accept that there are visible changes ongoing today but who is to say that its not part of the natural cycle of our planet. Youngsters hollering and screaming in a panic are not much of a concern, they just don't understand our capacity to innovate and how long it might take to develop an appropriate plan. Yes the Coral Reef is almost totally destroyed and all of the dinosaurs are gone as well but the summer heat isn't any worse than 60 years ago when I was a child. Winter weather patterns in my area seem to be a bit warmer but I doubt its enough of a change to even calculate an effect even if we knew how.

    Just my 2cents.
    Climate isn't the same as Weather.
    The last five years are the hottest on record, again.

    Each year tops the last.

    Of course the kids are worked up over the inaction to date. Business as usual isn't effective.

    Innovation does, in fact, include nuclear power. However, it precludes designs such as Daiichi at Fukushima. Much like grid stabilizing batteries, nuclear power must be distributed and fault tolerant.

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202008


    https://skepticalscience.com/1934-ho...-on-record.htm
    Last edited by Jim Matthews; 09-16-2020 at 11:36 AM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Outten View Post
    I remember a certain number of decades ago there was a debate among scientists concerned about an upcoming decrease in global temperatures and that the planet was destined to go into a deep freeze in our lifetime. Today its the opposite, the problem seems to be a lack of understanding and trust when the global health predictions are what we seem to be receiving. Honestly I don't believe that any human being or group has the knowledge to predict any major long or short term environmental changes. I just doubt that humans are that smart
    Just my 2cents.
    2cents IMO would be an overpayment. Nothing personal.

    If you were a gambling person you might evaluate the results of what happens if we do nothing and worst case scenario occurs. Compare that to doing all we can to reverse or stop the warming trend. Solving all the problems you listed, minimizing our fossil fuel reliance and concomitant environmental damage, and the list goes on. Painful? Yes to a degree, but the alternative is ludicrous to a thoughtful person.

  11. #11
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    I remember a certain number of decades ago there was a debate among scientists concerned about an upcoming decrease in global temperatures and that the planet was destined to go into a deep freeze in our lifetime.
    That started with a nine paragraph article in Newsweek.

    The story observed – accurately – that there had been a gradual decrease in global average temperatures from about 1940, now believed to be a consequence of soot and aerosols that offered a partial shield to the earth as well as the gradual retreat of an abnormally warm interlude.

    [edit]

    And, revisionist lore aside, it was hardly a cover story. It was a one-page article on page 64. It was, Gwynne concedes, written with a bit of over-ventilated style that sometimes marked the magazine's prose: "There are ominous signs the earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically..." the piece begins, and warns of a possible "dramatic decline in food production."

    "Newsweek being Newsweek, we might have pushed the envelope a little bit more than I would have wanted," Gwynne offered.

    But the story was tantalizing enough that other variations – somewhat more nuanced – were written by the New York Times and National Geographic, among others. The theory picked up support from some pretty reputable scientists: the late, esteemed Stephen Schneider of Stanford endorsed a book on the issue.

    But there also was a small but growing counter-theory that carbon dioxide and other pollutants accompanying the Industrial Age were creating a warming belt in the atmosphere, and by about 1980 it was clear that the earth's average temperature was headed upward.
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ry-came-to-be/

    Just months ago I think someone was investigating whether we could destroy hurricanes with a nuclear weapon.
    That was mostly one person and maybe some of his followers. He is often thought of as not being the brightest bulb in the box.

    Yes the Coral Reef is almost totally destroyed and all of the dinosaurs are gone as well but the summer heat isn't any worse than 60 years ago when I was a child.
    Reality may disagree:

    July 2020 was record hot for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
    The west is also experienced record heat, 120º in Los Angeles and 130º recorded in Death Valley. Many other areas in the western states are also recording record temperatures.

    One very clear affect of pollution is currently in the west many locations are experiencing cooler temps due to smoke from fires blocking the sun. This should be clear evidence showing changing our atmosphere changes our earth. Yet some people remain in denial of such clear evidence.

    In some areas government programs are buying and condemning flood prone properties. This is seen as more economical than rebuilding every few years.

    Mankind cannot continue to foul our environment and expect all to be fine and dandy. People can deny reality all the want, that doesn't make it any less real.

    jtk
    Last edited by Jim Koepke; 09-16-2020 at 12:09 PM.
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
    - Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

  12. #12
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    I can't help but think that many of the climate change deniers also denied that smoking causes cancer, that seatbelts and motorcycle helmets save lives and that covid19 is a hoax. My 2 cents worth.
    Last edited by Doug Garson; 09-16-2020 at 1:43 PM. Reason: spelling and not an

  13. #13
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    As a community of woodworkers, I am surprised that the concern about climate change is wavering. After all, this group would literally be nameless without trees, and human activity is actively harming the very environments that give rise to precious lumber. Also, as lovers of wood, we should know that old growth lumber is different from what we have now. The wood is often of better quality, and many experts attribute generations of currently weaker trees to temperature and environmental changes as well as poorer air quality.


    https://apnews.com/dbd81ca2a7244ea08...ur-living-room'
    There is scientific consensus about climate change. It exists. In fact, we've known about climate change for Many Americans are insulated from the current effects of climate change and won't feel the future ones as drastically. I grew up in California and vividly remember a time when disastrous fires weren't common. I moved to North Carolina and learned from longtime residents that the hurricanes, tornadoes, and extra fickle weather patterns were not only unusual but getting worse.

    It does not help that many of those who write legislation do choose to prioritize the comforts of capitalism rather than looking at how the economic system we have inhibits green innovation while rewarding businesses who exacerbate climate change. Capitalism can't adapt to be more earth friendly, but we can change the system to accomodate hardcore capitalists and those who care about making sure that future generations like mine don't end up living in a nightmare wasteland. We have a great understanding of climate patterns, and this particular one we're experiencing doesn't add up. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2616/c...-to-ice-cores/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rod Sheridan View Post
    Well said.

    Where I live we've almost completely eliminated thermal power generation of electricity. We now don't have smog days, or visible smog.

    The science is in on GHG effects on global warming, it's time to eliminate fossil fuels for any application that doesn't require them, all I can think of are aviation and marine transportation, perhaps some forestry and agriculture as well.

    I don't care whether my hot water is heated by electricity or NG, so in the spring I'm going to replace my gas water heater with an electric one. One easy method to reduce my GHG emissions. Similarily, the next vehicle will be electric.

    It's not difficult to change, if we don't we're toast.............Rod.
    Canada gets something like 60% of its electricity from Hydro and a good chunk from nuclear.

    Here in the United States the same people that tell us climate is an existential crisis are blocking new nuclear plants and actually have us tearing down hydro-electric dams.

  15. #15
    The thing about science, and the scientific method in particular, is that when followed with rigor, it will methodically identify and correct incorrect conclusions and converge on the correct result. Inherent in this is that there will be some wrong paths taken for a time. This should not be taken as evidence that science is wrong or cannot be trusted; on the contrary it demonstrates how powerful the scientific method is as a guiding principle.

    I am amazed at how people are completely willing to accept the results of the scientific method when driving, or using their phone, or flying in a airplane, or even turning the lights on. Nearly every technological development we rely on every day was developed and refined using the scientific method. Its power has been demonstrated millions of times, yet when people don't like the information science provides, they suddenly don't believe in science.

    Of course we have to be skeptical of science involving enormous numbers of variables with incomplete data and incomplete understanding, like climate prediction. But we are foolish if we don't act on the best information and guidance we have, as painful as it may be, especially when our best information tells us we have little time to act and the consequences of getting it wrong are so severe.

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