Covid vaccine development

[roger wiegand]

Derek Lowe writes an incredibly good, readable, and very reliable blog on topics across medicinal chemistry and drug development. (lots of picky fact checkers read it and he is very responsive about making corrections as required) Here is his most recent summary of corona virus vaccine development, with links to the underlying data, if you're interested in a pretty comprehensive picture of what's happening. Bottom line-- a ton of activity and a myriad of approaches; preliminary data from early safety studies and antibody/T cell responses look promising for several candidates. We should see the beginnings of efficacy data soon; it will take longer to get the candidates into enough patients to assess safety in a broad population.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...arly-september

[Michael Weber]

Thanks. Mostly over my head but it’s comforting to know there are internet sources with actual reliable information about this subject. Interesting comment about the Russian vaccine. And I found a link to some edgy cartoons.

[Mike Henderson]

Wow, good stuff. Thanks for posting that. There's a lot there that I didn't know.

Mike

[Ed Aumiller]

Roger, thanks...

[roger wiegand]

Derek had a post earlier in the week on the subject of cold chain distribution that makes sobering reading. I faced that problem big time in getting heat-sensitive materials in and out of Sub-Saharan Africa, but at least a couple of the current leading candidates require storage at -80C (-112 F), something that may not be feasible even in the US, at least in part to an ongoing shortage of dry ice. Most physicians offices are clearly not prepared to provide appropriate storage. There is potential to waste a huge amount of material due to spoilage.

The logistics of storage and distribution are all problematic, availability of glass vials for packaging is a big concern now, for example. These problems are all solvable given competent management, time, and money, at least in resource-rich countries; but they are part of my sticking to thinking it will easily be the middle of next year before widespread vaccine coverage is accomplished in the US, developed countries in Asia, and Europe. I'd love to be surprised. Sadly I suspect the folks in Africa and south Asia are going to get the short end of the stick yet again; their needs won't be prioritized

[Stan Calow]

This is an interesting podcast to a Planet Money story on what it has taken just to maintain capacity to produce enough influenza vaccine for a potential outbreak in the US: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/06/81294...es-the-vaccine Essentially, the government has contracts in place for enough chickens (in classified locations) to produce 900,000 eggs, per day, for several months at a time. The government buys the eggs whether they're used or not. Otherwise the free market does not support maintaining the capacity to react on short notice to a influenza pandemic. Imagine the logistics and supply issues they will have to iron out for a COVID vaccine on top of that. So when the scientists say "we will have a vaccine by XXXX", that only means they will have identified an effective one, not that they have full production capability. Its economics as much as science.

[Mike Soaper]

As a reference to the needed storage temp of -112F, the surface temp of dry ice is about -109F

Thanks for the info and work Roger

[Mike Soaper]

Not particarly vaccine related, but some might find it interesting

AHNA COVID-19 Update Tuesday, August 25, 2020
American Holistic Nurses Association (AHNA)

https://www.ahna.org/Portals/66/Docs/Resources/COVID-19/COVID-19%20Update%20August%2025%202020.pdf?ver=2020-08-27-142028-810

[Jim Matthews]

Covid-19 is a new (novel) virus with no precursors in the human population.

It is pernicious because it is contagious, even in asymptomatic carriers. The coronavirus that caused Sars-1 was transmissable only by those obviously sick.


https://nationalinterest.org/blog/re...ars-did-161346

[roger wiegand]

Vaccine development is a lot like drug development, but with a somewhat higher success rate, at least for traditional approaches. 90% of the work and investment happens after you have a candidate molecule that appears to work in model systems, and most of those candidates fail in the clinic.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

Thanks for the article Roger! It was an informative and interesting read.

[Andrew Joiner]

Thanks for that link Roger. Derek's wrapup is encouraging :
===============
Wrapup
Dang, that’s a lot of vaccine candidates. And as you can see, it’s a long-tail distribution – there are some big ones that everyone knows about, but a lot of people are bringing a lot of technologies to bear on the problem. This makes me think that we’re going to have a multichapter story, in the end. There will be the first vaccines approved, then the second wave, then the improvements on those, until we have (with luck, hard work, skill, and lots of money) tossed this virus out of the human population and back to the bats, pangolins, or whoever had it in the first place.
An excellent side effect is that vaccine technology will never be the same after this – it’s going to be like aircraft design before and after World War II, and for many of the same reasons. This whole pandemic has been awful, in many different ways, but we’re going to come out of it stronger and more capable than when we went in.

[Tyler Bancroft]

Derek Lowe's a treasure. I've been reading his blog for years. If you need a bit of light reading, try his "Things I Won't Work With" series. (https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...gen_difluoride)

[roger wiegand]

I love it every time there's a "things I won't work with" post! It's good to have at least passing familiarity with chemistry (and chemists!) to fully appreciate them. (NB, I am a biologist; my job was to kill all the beautiful compounds the chemists produced by discovering nasty truths about their (lack of) activity, toxicity, or bioavaliability.)

I suppose there could be a related woodworking thread. Particle board might not be so exciting as a topic though.

[Curt Harms]

I love it every time there's a "things I won't work with" post! It's good to have at least passing familiarity with chemistry (and chemists!) to fully appreciate them. (NB, I am a biologist; my job was to kill all the beautiful compounds the chemists produced by discovering nasty truths about their (lack of) activity, toxicity, or bioavaliability.)

I suppose there could be a related woodworking thread. Particle board might not be so exciting as a topic though.

So you were a killjoy then. Thanks for your input here, it's nice to hear from someone who knows what they're talking about.