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Thread: Covid vaccine development

  1. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Matthews View Post
    Covid-19 is a new (novel) virus with no precursors in the human population.

    It is pernicious because it is contagious, even in asymptomatic carriers. The coronavirus that caused Sars-1 was transmissable only by those obviously sick.


    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/re...ars-did-161346
    Granted COVID is serious but coronaviruses are the category of common cold viruses. COVID is novel in the sense of an immunologically naive pollution, not that it is a new class of virus.

    Contrary to what much of the public has been led to believe, its been known from very early on that children are not significant sources of infection. There is now evidence the same is true of asymptomatic adults, which prompted the CDC to recommend that asymptomatic people need not be tested.

    The CDC estimates only 6% of COVID deaths were actually due to COVID alone. This astounding revelation puts an entirely different face on this pandemic, does it not? perhaps the US does not account for 20% of all deaths worldwide. It was hard to believe anyway.

    But even with this revelation, even what we know about testing, who is susceptible, even in the face of an obviously flattened curve, some areas are still locked down and mask mandates are still in force. We hear a candidate vow to “follow the science” and impose a 3 month national mask mandate, even though the pandemic is obviously waning?

    COVID has followed a predictable biological course, it’s one remarkable feature was being contagiousness, NOT it’s lethality! And the wonderfully awesome human immune system is functioning as it’s been programmed to for millennia. It wasn’t masks or draconian lockdowns That did it.

  2. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Engel View Post
    The CDC estimates only 6% of COVID deaths were actually due to COVID alone.
    I suppose that what you mean is that 6% of the people who died while infected with COVID had no underlying conditions that contributed to their death, such as heart disease, diabetes, etc.

    It's still COVID that precipitated the death of the other 94%. Most would not have died at that time without the COVID infection.

    Mike
    Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good.

  3. #18
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    The usual way of tracking any illness, is to attribute premature death to the proximate cause. Even if you were obese with diabetes and a heart condition, if COVID makes you die sooner than you would have, thats a negative consequence of the infection. Death rate is not the only measure of concern. Large numbers of sick people, using up resources, and unable to function, are also significant negative impacts.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Henderson View Post
    I suppose that what you mean is that 6% of the people who died while infected with COVID had no underlying conditions that contributed to their death, such as heart disease, diabetes, etc.

    It's still COVID that precipitated the death of the other 94%. Most would not have died at that time without the COVID infection.

    Mike
    THis is true and CDC and other Epidemiologists have clarified this emphatically since the 6% number was being misrepresented in various ways. COVID19 was still the primary cause of death to those with underlying conditions who contracted the disease that made them more succeptiable to the same. CDC has also clarified the testing thing...
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Henderson View Post
    I suppose that what you mean is that 6% of the people who died while infected with COVID had no underlying conditions that contributed to their death, such as heart disease, diabetes, etc.

    It's still COVID that precipitated the death of the other 94%. Most would not have died at that time without the COVID infection.

    Mike
    I have concerns with the data. Hospitals can access COVID funds if the person is reported as having COVID, so there is a potential financial incentive to code things as being related to COVID whether they actually are or not. There are also some reports of things that are statistically unlikely (reports of some providers who have never reported a negative test result to CDC for example).

    There have also been some prominent incidents of large scale false positives.

    The yardstick that makes the most sense to me is the "excess death" numbers that have been discussed in various studies. They compare the monthly or annual deaths to the monthly or annual averages over the last five years. It is hard to think of a way those numbers could be manipulated, assuming someone wanted to do that.

    I have not looked lately, but earlier in the pandemic those numbers suggested the virus was killing people far earlier than we knew at the time, and that the total number of deaths caused by the virus was actually higher than the reported case numbers. I would not be surprised if that were still the case.

  6. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by roger wiegand View Post
    I love it every time there's a "things I won't work with" post! It's good to have at least passing familiarity with chemistry (and chemists!) to fully appreciate them. (NB, I am a biologist; my job was to kill all the beautiful compounds the chemists produced by discovering nasty truths about their (lack of) activity, toxicity, or bioavaliability.)
    Neuroscientist here. His "things I won't work with" posts make me grateful I didn't become a bench scientist...

  7. #22
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    Stuff that explodes if you even think about it is pretty exciting though...

  8. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by roger wiegand View Post
    Stuff that explodes if you even think about it is pretty exciting though...

    Are you sure you aren't an engineer?

  9. #24
    Jim, if you'll do some checking the CDC guidelines to doctors on reporting a COVID death are quite nebulous, even to the point if the attending physician thinks its COVID, even without a + test, there is a place to indicate that on the CDC report form.

    This, combined with the PCR test is blowing up the numbers.

    When COVID is a contributing cause of death, that is not the same as the cause of death. For example, a person with COPD who contracts the flu, is reported as death due to COPD complicated by influenza not as an influenza death.

    But its even worse than that, in many cases ANY death in a COVID + person is reported as a COVID death, such as car accidents, cancer deaths, etc. This was brought to light by the audit done by Gov. Polis in CO where fully 25% of "COVID deaths" were removed from the data.

    Regardless, it is undeniable there are huge problems with the COVID data. The CDC has lost credibility due its faulty reporting protocols, which I believe stems from its bureaucracy. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in "the CDC clarifying" anything.

    I'm trying to make the point that the lethality of the virus is being overblown by the media.

    This virus is not the killer virus the public believes it is. The risk for a 50 to 64 year old of hospitalization is 1 in 790,000 and of death only 1 in 6,670,000. Reference here. We know who the susceptible are, we know who are at the least risk. Global mandates such as masking the public simply do not work and there is ample evidence. If masks worked, we would have everyone in an elder care facility in a mask during flu season!

    I and many, many others believe colossal mistakes, with far reaching effects. Data will be forthcoming on suicides, divorce, drug abuse, child abuse, etc. and I predict they will be shocking.

    I am also very confident when the COVID data is retrospectively analyzed, we will find the US represents no where near 1/5 of the world's COVID deaths.
    Last edited by Robert Engel; 09-09-2020 at 11:56 AM.

  10. #25
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    We will have to agree that we disagree, Robert. The epidemiologists that I have regular contact with...including my spouse...also disagree.
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    The most expensive tool is the one you buy "cheaply" and often...

  11. #26
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    Late to the party.

    I follow "Medlife crisis" on YouTube.
    He takes a stringent, data driven approach to epidemiology. He was one of the first to openly caution about broad extrapolations and explain why no clear answers are available in chaotic times.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgR...P2w7HTH9j_L4OQ

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