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Thread: Good CoVid-19 Article about your chance of being infected

  1. #1
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    Good CoVid-19 Article about your chance of being infected

    A friend sent me this article about how CoVid-19 is transmitted and your chances of being infected under different conditions. It contains some good information that you can use to protect yourself as we begin to reopen our economy.

    Mike
    Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good.

  2. #2
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    Excellent article well written and easy to understand, everyone should read this and follow its advice. Thanks for sharing Mike, I'll be forwarding this to friends and family.

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    I also read this yesterday and fully agree. Excellent article that puts a level headed picture of what is and is not risky.

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    I take all those predictions with a grain of salt. They don't really know but just guesstimating. What make the so called experts expert when they never saw this before.

  5. #5
    While I won’t take anything from anyone regarding this virus as the holy grail i sure think treating it with the utmost respect and say adhering to suggestions as outlined in this article are the only responsible ethical considerate thing to do.

    Someday we know, but right now is not someday so you know be interested over cautious only seems logical.

    Some are raised to play outside with indoor voices as to respect the neighbors as the neighbors might not want to listen to it. Some don’t teach their kids to be considerate of others right to their desires thus taking them away like they complain of theirs being taken away by rules.

    A little bit of common sense and a lot of respect for each other will take us a long way..

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerome Stanek View Post
    What make the so called experts expert when they never saw this before.
    Folks who specialize in infectious disease and epidemiology have proven methodologies that they have used and adapted for a long time now. These are sound, scientific processes. Yes, there is uncertainty and unknowns with a new disease, but the very capable and smart people studying it are not starting completely from scratch in their work, either. They know from history what the potential issues and challenges might be but readily acknowledge that it will take time to more fully understand the particular nature of a new or varient pathogen. The problem is that we live in a world where so many folks want a determination "now" and have little patience for the process to work. Jumping to conclusions has already proven to be a major issue in the last few months. The best that all of us can do is be thoughtful and caring about others including taking precautions that help reduce the chance of the virus spreading in a manner that can't be managed with available resources. Yea, masks and social distancing are a pain in the backside, but unless everyone is willing to be a responsible human being and do those things, it's going to be really hard to restart the economy, open businesses and rehire folks who are currently idled. I'm not confident, unfortunately...there are a lot of people who are all about "me" instead of "us" out there.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Becker View Post
    Folks who specialize in infectious disease and epidemiology have proven methodologies that they have used and adapted for a long time now. These are sound, scientific processes. Yes, there is uncertainty and unknowns with a new disease, but the very capable and smart people studying it are not starting completely from scratch in their work, either. They know from history what the potential issues and challenges might be but readily acknowledge that it will take time to more fully understand the particular nature of a new or varient pathogen. The problem is that we live in a world where so many folks want a determination "now" and have little patience for the process to work. Jumping to conclusions has already proven to be a major issue in the last few months. The best that all of us can do is be thoughtful and caring about others including taking precautions that help reduce the chance of the virus spreading in a manner that can't be managed with available resources. Yea, masks and social distancing are a pain in the backside, but unless everyone is willing to be a responsible human being and do those things, it's going to be really hard to restart the economy, open businesses and rehire folks who are currently idled. I'm not confident, unfortunately...there are a lot of people who are all about "me" instead of "us" out there.
    Good words Jim, we are all in this together, we need each other, united we stand.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerome Stanek View Post
    I take all those predictions with a grain of salt. They don't really know but just guesstimating. What make the so called experts expert when they never saw this before.
    The mathematics and computer programs used to predict the spread of CoVid-19 have been used and verified against many earlier virus outbreaks, including the seasonal flu. They have proven to be generally accurate.

    Mike
    Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good.

  9. #9
    The article is exactly right about susceptible people coming out of lockdown. The numbers will continue to rise, although at a less steep curve.

    This is why a lockdown to prevent infection is a mistake.

    The biggest problem now I think is fear. My state is open, even though the restaurants can take customers, every one I've seen is still doing take out. My business has stayed open (I am luck enough to be considered "essential") in fact we have experienced a 25% increase since early March. ??

    The malls are empty.

    But my local Home Depot is packed every weekend.

    Go figure.

  10. #10
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    So the experts are like what Spiro Agnew said you can't learn about poverty from the poverty sticken you have to learn it from the experts

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerome Stanek View Post
    So the experts are like what Spiro Agnew said you can't learn about poverty from the poverty stricken you have to learn it from the experts
    You can learn a lot about what it's like to be poor from talking to people who are poor. And you can learn a lot about what it's like to be sick with the CoVid-19 virus from people who have been sick with it.

    But the people who have been sick with the CoVid-19 virus can't tell you anything about how the virus will spread in the community. To do that you need to model the spread, which requires a broader view of the problem than the individual, plus community data, mathematics and computer programs. And that requires "experts" who have studied virus transmission, not individuals who have been sick.

    Mike
    Last edited by Mike Henderson; 05-14-2020 at 1:55 PM.
    Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good.

  12. #12
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    I wonder what those who criticize following the advice of experts do in their woodworking when they encounter a problem or want to try something new? Do they just follow their gut or do they ask advice from those who have experience? Perhaps they consider the consequences of guessing wrong? If you expect the experts to be right 100% of the time you are naive, if you think you can be right more often than the experts by following your gut you are foolish and depending on the consequences, maybe dangerously foolish.

  13. #13
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    I think we ought to be concentrating on how to prevent that tiny percentage of people who will die from the disease from getting it and allow the other people to get on with their lives. I say this as one of that tiny high risk group of people. Nobody seems concerned that a total collapse of our economic system and subsequent collapse of society is inevitable if we continue on like we are now for a few more months. My prediction is that that outcome will cause more death and human suffering than covid-19. The government can't print enough money to put an entire nation on welfare for several months. The problem is that the more money you print, the less it will buy.

    There is such a thing as herd immunity. That is where we want to be. It is predicted that herd immunity will happen when about 60% of the population has had the disease and gained immunity. Although the scientists don't say much about it, they expect the total number of people who get the disease and some die from it be the same whether we shelter in place or not. In other words, the area under the curve is the same whether it is flattened or not. The deaths are just stretched out over a longer time period so as not to overload the hospitals. The predictions of that happening have been spectacularly wrong.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Becker View Post
    Folks who specialize in infectious disease and epidemiology have proven methodologies that they have used and adapted for a long time now. These are sound, scientific processes. Yes, there is uncertainty and unknowns with a new disease, but the very capable and smart people studying it are not starting completely from scratch in their work, either. They know from history what the potential issues and challenges might be but readily acknowledge that it will take time to more fully understand the particular nature of a new or varient pathogen. The problem is that we live in a world where so many folks want a determination "now" and have little patience for the process to work. Jumping to conclusions has already proven to be a major issue in the last few months. The best that all of us can do is be thoughtful and caring about others including taking precautions that help reduce the chance of the virus spreading in a manner that can't be managed with available resources. Yea, masks and social distancing are a pain in the backside, but unless everyone is willing to be a responsible human being and do those things, it's going to be really hard to restart the economy, open businesses and rehire folks who are currently idled. I'm not confident, unfortunately...there are a lot of people who are all about "me" instead of "us" out there.
    A very patient explanation, but I think you may be mis-interpreting the underlying logic of the anti-science contingent. Here's a simple allegory.
    An overweight person really wishes, and maybe believes they weigh less than they do. With some reluctance this person steps on a scale. The result disappoints them to the point where they pick up the scale and throw it out the window, cursing the inaccurate piece of junk. A search ensues for a properly functioning scale. The next one is wrong also, same with the one after that. Three scales having now been thrown out the window, our person declares all scales to be deficient, and nothing more than a misleading disservice to us all. And he proceeds along his merry way in blissful ignorance as to his weight problem.

    Proper scientific method reports data objectively, without regard for whether the outcome is palatable or not. So you can explain the engineering reasons for the scale's accuracy all you like. The problem is the disconnect between the message and what the recipient wants to hear. Until that message is to the recipient's liking, the source will always be suspect.

    Now to really compound matters, we live in an age of media where anyone can generally seek out and find the message that they want to hear. Facts come in different flavors, which means almost everyone can righteously dig in on the position they want, nobody needs to concede, and consensus is difficult, if not impossible.
    It would be as though our example person can buy a special scale that will give them the exact weight reading they want to see, whatever it might be.
    Science is the scale that got thrown out the window.
    Media is the special scale that will tell you what you want to hear.

    Note: the above partially inspired by Joe Walsh - A Life of Illusion
    Last edited by Edwin Santos; 05-14-2020 at 5:31 PM.

  15. #15
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-wont-save-us/

    We dont know what immunity looks like yet.

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