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Thread: Covid 19: The risks, know them, avoid them

  1. #1
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    Covid 19: The risks, know them, avoid them

    My sis sent me this article. It's one of the best I've read in terms of explaining the mechanisms of the spread of the virus, with explanation and analysis of risk levels associated with different types of exposure and different durations of exposure. I found the examples of actual cases that were analyzed based on contact tracing to be particularly interesting.

    https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them
    --I had my patience tested. I'm negative--

  2. #2
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    Good article Paul. Thank you for posting that. The reference links in it are also useful.
    Beranek's Law:

    It has been remarked that if one selects his own components, builds his own enclosure, and is convinced he has made a wise choice of design, then his own loudspeaker sounds better to him than does anyone else's loudspeaker. In this case, the frequency response of the loudspeaker seems to play only a minor part in forming a person's opinion.
    L.L. Beranek, Acoustics (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1954), p.208.

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    Paul, an excellent article. I will reread and share with others.

  4. #4
    It's very good. I really appreciate that it's from an actual Doctor.

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    Thank you! I really enjoyed the info and the fact it is from someone with a medical background. I'll be sharing this.

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    Thanks, that is a terrific article.
    My three favorite things are the Oxford comma, irony and missed opportunities

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  7. #7
    Locking down is proving to be likely worse than the virus. Its well documented that unemployment and financial crisis is associated with increases in suicides, depression, drug abuse, domestic violence, crime and homelessness. Not to mention material losses due to bankruptcies, foreclosures and loan defaults.

    What is the alternative? The decision to open is a hard one, but a necessary one. I know no governor wants to think he's caused a death, its a matter of choosing between two very bad scenarios. The scenario in GA is not a nearly as grim as predicted.

    Science is not running the show. Dr. Fauci of all people should know it is a losing battle to try and defeat this virus by quarantining people. We already know 60% of infections occur in people in lockdown!

    Here is some science: COVID is not a high mortality virus. There is no reason for mass hysteria and panic. We know the virus is highly contagious, but is rapidly weakened in the environment. Therefore, close personal contact is the biggest risk factor.

    We will never know how many people have been infected until more antibody studies are done, but the evidence so far is indicating a massive underestimation. One study by Stanford underestimated # infected and recovered by 50-80 TIMES! This drives the mortality rate even lower.

    We changed the lock down to prevent a death surge into preventing infection. You hear it said we will "conquer" the virus by locking down, but in reality this is impossible. The natural way an epidemic ends is by burning itself out as more become immune or the virus weakens naturally or a vaccine is developed. Either way, the population becomes stronger immunologically (herd immunity)

    The brutal fact is if we cannot wait for a vaccine. If we don't let people go and let this virus take its course, society will be dealing with something much worse than this virus.

    We know who is most vulnerable and how to protect them.

    I'm afraid we have take a course of action that is a cosmic mistake.

  8. #8
    Thanks for sharing, that is a very good article. It's difficult to keep a lot of this straight given the amount of misinformation and changing information. A concise article with good references is helpful.

  9. #9
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    Locking down is proving to be likely worse than the virus.
    Especially for those in nursing homes, cruise ships and prisons.

    Robert, do you have credible links to support your statements?

    Here is something from a news article posted yesterday:

    One sick singer attended choir practice, infecting 52 others, two of whom died. A study released by the C.D.C. shows that self-isolation and tracing efforts helped contain the outbreak.
    Search > choir practice covid < for multiple sources to the information.

    There appears to be a clear course for opening up. California and Oregon are working on reopening.

    The main problem with getting things back up and running is being able to test and track.

    For some reason we have been woefully behind in developing our testing abilities.

    jtk
    Last edited by Jim Koepke; 05-13-2020 at 11:23 AM.
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
    - Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

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    Thanks for sharing this Paul. Very sobering during a time in need of clear thought.

    jtk
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
    - Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

  11. #11
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    Have 2 active cases in my whole county. Better keep use locked down till congress can spend few more trillion.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Engel View Post
    Here is some science: COVID is not a high mortality virus.
    Today's numbers:
    confirmed cases US, 1,410,000 - deaths, 83,807
    cases to death ratio: 16.82 to 1

    confirmed case worldwide: 4,310,000 - deaths, 294,000
    cases to death ratio: 14.65 to 1

    I mentioned this the other day: 1 have 16 grandkids. If all of them contract the virus, these stats means we'll likely be burying one of them.

    Averaging the US and worldwide flu numbers I dug up recently, flu cases to death ratio is 1555 to 1...
    --Versus 16 to 1 for Covid-19; NOT a high-mortality virus? Sorry, I beg to differ.
    Last edited by Kev Williams; 05-13-2020 at 2:24 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by eugene thomas View Post
    Have 2 active cases in my whole county. Better keep use locked down till congress can spend few more trillion.
    If your county is reopened while neighboring counties are still locked down, do you suppose the folks from the next county or two over will stay home instead of coming to the restaurants and bars in your county?

    Do people in your county commute into other counties for work?

    Our biggest problem is in todays world it is common for people to work many miles from their home. An automobile makes it easy for me to take the wife out to dinner 5, 10 or even 100 miles from home.

    My state was one of the early 'hot spots' in the northwestern area of the state. My county is relatively low at 66 confirmed cases. To the west there are even less cases. My county is also on a state border.

    As long as we all know the risks and do not take them we will come out of this.

    jtk
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
    - Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Koepke View Post
    As long as we all know the risks and do not take them...
    I'm trying not to get too cynical about the current situation, but that's pretty much the perfect example of a zero-probability event.
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  15. #15
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    Back in 68 Woodstock went on even though there was a pandemic going on people just cared on.

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