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Thread: I hope this data is wrong

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Curt Harms View Post
    I'm hoping for a widely available antibody test soon. People who have developed immunity should be able to go back to their jobs without endangering others. I've heard of a couple studies in California that indicate infections are MUCH more common than previously estimated so serious/life threatening infections per 1,000 people is much lower than projected. I have no idea if those studies are legitimate or representative of larger populations. We need larger samples rather than small samples with lots of SWAGs derived from those small samples.
    Exactly. IMO until a massive program for testing antibodies starts we will not know for sure about the future. I respect the experts, but truthfully all we have done so far is act on models and suppositions.

    I am confident the true mortality rate will be much lower once this is determined. (This is the so called "denominator" they talk about). We already know the virus has been around CA longer than thought. Serology studies indicate 50-80X as many people had antibodies than expected. This means there are a multitude of people who have been infected and recovered (herd immunity!)

    Mutation is another issue, and my be what's behind so many experts claiming antibodies may not protect you (because this is quite incorrect for most infections with the exception of some classes like HIV). Apparently many variants have already been identified by researchers in China (I don't believe much from China, but no reason not to believe this). Typically mutations results in differing levels of virulence, IOW the virus can either be weaker or stronger.

    Could this be the reason why some countries seem to be hit harder than others? We will eventually find out I'm sure the studies are already underway. CA has not been hit has hard as NY and that has a lot of people wondering. The thinking is CA "beat" the virus with strict quarantine measures, while NY lagged in their response.

    But what if CA got a different variant direct from Wuhan and it happens to be less virulent? 1000's of people fly back and forth from CA to China every day, perhaps they got the "Wuhan" virus and NY got a different variant from Europe?

    If this is true it has huge implications on vaccine development, because the most virulent variants would have to be identified and a multivalent vaccine would have to be developed.

  2. #62
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    Unfortunately we don't know at this point whether an antibody response is protective, what antibody titer might be required for protection, or for how long the antibody response might be protective. Also unfortunately the rapid diagnostic tests for antibodies being rolled out (many of which, in another colossal regulatory failure, don't actually work) can't really provide data on the level of antibody response, just a +/- result. You need a lab test instead to get those data.

    It's hard to interpret the re-infection data given the crappy nature of a lot of the testing. Much of it is probably due to false positives, but as more and more reports publish it seems more likely that infection doesn't necessarily induce a fully protective immune response. Early data suggest that mild cases might be less likely to produce a robust immune response. Little of this has made it to the peer-reviewed published literature yet, I'm relying on published pre-prints of papers. It will be many months before we really know.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greg Funk View Post
    Not really clear what your point is. That there might be a couple people in NY who would have died anyway? Old people are going to die soon so we shouldn’t care? We’re all going to die sooner or later so this Coronavirus is no big deal and we should just carry on as normal?

    I'm not making a moral or political point. I'm only saying that excess mortality data is the most straightforward way to evaluate the bottom line effect of coronavirus as far as number of deaths is concerned. Total deaths is a less controversial statistic than deaths-due-to-corona virus since a death may be due to several causes and causes-of-death given on death certificates may be subjective or inaccurate. Total deaths and Excess Mortality reflect all the factors positively and negatively affecting death rates. That would include effects of diseases, effects of public policy, and economic affects.

    An association of European countries reports such data. The maps on their site are informative, e.g. https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ (Scroll down that page to find the map.) It would be informative to see a similar map for regions of the USA - anyone know of such a map for the USA or the Americas?

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by roger wiegand View Post
    Unfortunately we don't know at this point whether an antibody response is protective, what antibody titer might be required for protection, or for how long the antibody response might be protective.
    I was in the category of the many who thought (hoped?) that recovering from Covid-19 will result in an "antibody" that will confer permanent immunity. Then the other day in one of the WH press briefings, I heard Dr. Birx say that there are a lot of unknowns around antibodies and recoveree immunity, and specifically we don't yet definitively know that a protective antibody even exists, and if it does, whether is effective for a week, a month, or a year, or more.

    Your comment is basically echoing what I thought I heard from her.
    This is all loaded with variables and very complicated. I think it really compounds matters that there is a bias in human nature that causes us to interpret information the way we want it to be and wish it were, thus making misinformation perhaps the most virulent aspect of the pandemic.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edwin Santos View Post
    <snip>
    Your comment is basically echoing what I thought I heard from her.
    This is all loaded with variables and very complicated. I think it really compounds matters that there is a bias in human nature that causes us to interpret information the way we want it to be and wish it were, thus making misinformation perhaps the most virulent aspect of the pandemic.
    Sad but true. I don't envy those tasked with making the decisions about whether to continue the isolation or begin the relax the restrictions. Hindsight is indeed 20/20 and they WILL be second guessed.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Curt Harms View Post
    Sad but true. I don't envy those tasked with making the decisions about whether to continue the isolation or begin the relax the restrictions. Hindsight is indeed 20/20 and they WILL be second guessed.
    The masses of people are making this decision on their own without waiting for guidance from the decision-makers. I see fewer people wearing masks and none wearing gloves, every day. Much of the neighborhood chatter (NextDoor) is about people looking for ways around the restrictions.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan Calow View Post
    ...I see fewer people wearing masks and none wearing gloves, every day. ...
    Around here I see more people wearing masks every week - customers, clerks, and shelf-stockers in stores, delivery guys, pumping gas, out walking.

  8. #68
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    Masks are required here in PA when entering businesses and other places that are open to the public and that includes employees of the same. Most folks are complying but it's scary that "some people" forget that the mask has to actually be covering both their mouth and nose. Dude running the checkout at TrueValue the other day had his nose sticking out of his mask. That solicited a "teen girl worthy" eye roll from me for sure...
    --

    The most expensive tool is the one you buy "cheaply" and often...

  9. #69
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    As we are in the middle of what we hope will be the highest tide of the surge of cases and deaths compliance around here with masks and gloves is at the 95% level. Many stores won't let you in without a mask. The roads and streets are pretty much empty, most people who are out on the street are wearing masks. There is evidence that it is working, so that's good.

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