I hope this data is wrong

[John K Jordan]

A chart in a Bloomberg article today caught my eye. It shows the rate of coronavirus spread in various countries counting from the date of the first 100 cases. I cannot verify the data or even their source quickly. I can't remember, when did we hit 100,000 cases, was it on Friday 3/27?

I've been watching the curve from other sources but this one is easier to follow.

virus_Bloomberg_Mar29.jpg

I didn't digitize or even measure the plot to get numbers. However, I drew a quick line for a simple projection for the USA based on the slope of the curve over the last few days. Note the scale on the right is logarithmic and increases 10x for each division. Note the scale on the bottom is every six days.

virus_projection_Bloomberg_Mar29.jpg

IF this data source is correct and my simple projection is fairly close,
then,
IF the rate of infection continues along that line the number of cases will hit 1 million in less than 12 days from 100 cases,
and,
IF the slope stays the same, we will have 10 million cases in less than 12 days later.
And this is likely to go on for months?

For today's number from Wordometers.info the USA death rate is about 1.7% of infections. You do the math.

Note that the curves for some European countries have similar slopes for now. The slope for Italy is decreasing a bit.

I might go hide under my bed. Call me if the data changes. This rate MUST slow.

JKJ

[Mark Hennebury]

Scary News and getting worse every day.

[Anuj Prateek]

Data is not wrong. I have been following various sources including the mentioned website. They all have similar data.

Simple extrapolation assumes no change in conditions and endless supply of population.

Even in worst case curve has to flatten when everyone is infected. If no measures are in place, we would see exponential increase before curve is flattened.

With isolation, we have lower rate of increase of infection. Ideally, we will flatten the curve before everyone is infected or better majority is not infected. Next, we want to keep the number low enough that our medical system is not overwhelmed.

With all the measures is place and hopefully more to come, we should see flattening in 3-4 weeks. Goes without saying that failure on part of people and government will prolong the period. We have to remember that growth rate is exponential, and any delay means huge impact.

Overall, I personally believe, better numbers are few weeks away and not months.

[David Bassett]

The slope of that curve is what the social distancing and the shelter in place are supposed to affect. We were first, or close, in the US here in the 6 SF Bay Area counties and getting close to two weeks. Since COVID-19 has an incubation period of 7-14 days, we should start to see our curve roll off soon if the effort is working. We may be too small to be statistically significant, but California as a whole is less than a week behind us, with most states having joined in as they started to see cases increase. It's going to be an interesting month in the US. Sadly your curve is what I've seen from experts and under your bed isn't the worst place right now.

(PS- sorry my numbers are fuzzy. Cabin fever has made this a blur and I'm too lazy to look up the exact dates.)

[Patrick Walsh]

I’m with Fauci..

Even before this I have always been so disappointed we as humans put so much value in the almighty dollar vrs what’s really of value in this world.

A time like this I feel it’s best for us to all do our best. I know it may be only my opinion and others with have contrary.

But our best to me seems to be “stay home at all cost” the cards are gonna land at this point where they land for us all regarding $$$ it’s not gonna not stink bad for any of us. Some worse than others, some less but we are all gonna suffer bad.

But if we die or unknowingly or knowingly end up being the cause of someone else dying well then what all that financial self preservation gonna worth.

About as much as I feel it was worth prior but just with a life and death consequence..

I’m all for science, all for facts but people make mistakes and sometimes overcompensation is only logical. I’d say this is one of those times.

Crap the attention some of us pay to our dam joinery far exceeds that of the attention most pay to not only their health but the health and welfare of others.

If you wanna argue that financial welfare is that important go ahead your not gonna crack this nut

[Matt Day]

Problem is that this information is in front of the people following the guidelines of social distancing. The people not following the guidelines either aren’t informed or don’t care.

[John K Jordan]

Problem is that this information is in front of the people following the guidelines of social distancing. The people not following the guidelines either aren’t informed or don’t care.

Yes, Andy, et. al., my point was if nothing else changes, this could describe one possible scenario. I very much hope that with increased education on distancing and prevention, massive testing direct isolation, advances in treatment, and perhaps the quick development of effective inoculation the curve will change for the better, especially if the authorities are behind it. But it could get even worse quickly if people don't change their behavior.

Around here, many people don't seem to be concerned that another person could possibly be an infected carrier with no symptoms. Just this weekend I went out to get diesel fuel for the tractor (the gas stations were almost deserted!) and at one house I saw at least 8 cars in one driveway/yard, all the people perhaps jammed together inside the small house celebrating Aunt Maude's birthday or something. I see young people hanging out in groups, multiple parents taking kids to a small park. Our county has only 6 reported cases, but how many are unreported or asymptomatic and interacting with the community?

We made a grocery run today at the "senior's hour" and I was pleased to see more people wearing gloves and masks and everyone politely waiting for others to pass to keep a distance.

And last night I made another dozen small bottles of hand sanitizer to pass out. At first when I asked people if they needed some most said no; now more people are saying yes.

JKJ

[Jim Becker]

Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves. Why? In normal medical situations, they are one-time use and get discarded between tasks which prevents the spread of nefarious things. If we, the public, wear nitrile or other similar gloves while out and about, we may be "protecting" ourselves slightly, but we're also spreading the nasties around as we go about our business and touch things. Frequent hand washing with soap and using sanitizer when we must is actually a better collective solution to help reduce the spread of disease. Masks, on the other hand, may very well do more to help reduce the spread than originally anticipated and that includes non-N95/non-commercial solutions. Why? It helps reduce transmission from folks who are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic from ejecting live virus directly into the air around them. It's not perfect, but certainly can help.

And I agree, John, that there are still way too many people who "don't get it" around the seriousness of the situation and how it can be unknowingly spread by those who have it with no symptoms or those who have contracted it but have not begun to have symptoms. Aunt Maude's birthday could have been just as much fun via Zoom or FaceTime.

[Anuj Prateek]

Purely from internet reading:

Gloves made of cotton or other absorbing material maybe help though. It seems it reduces the spread and eventually virus disintegrates.

All said, sticking with hand wash and sanitizers is preferred and better.

[Ole Anderson]

An informal poll taken yesterday by folks that frequent the Silver Lake Sand Dune FB group. 842 responded. 58% still out working, 24% can't work, 15% were working from home with a few scattered other responses.

As others have said, image the toll if C-19 were as deadly as Ebola with a death rate of 50%, rather than 2%. And don't forget AIDS/HIV which caused 32 million deaths to date and still kills 700,000 per year. https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/

[Mark Bolton]

Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves.

The reason to be carefull about gloves other than the simple lack of protocol with regards to the users is coming to fruition even in our "last-in" state. The gloves are being tossed down on the pavement in a rationality to rid ones self of the the contamination rather than walking them to a trash can.

These are the times when one can have a morbidly delusional hope that the wasters and door knob lickers of the planet are the ones that are eliminated but unfortunately they will most definitely come out the other side while the rule followers will die.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

When comparing numbers remember we are in the earliest stages of this virus and resultant pandemic. It's a gross misstatement IMO, to compare the number of deaths caused by other viruses knowing that the others are pretty much history or at least, pretty well contained while this virus is just starting.

It's the asymptomatic carriers I worry about most. In less than 2 weeks time, my wife were in the following airports in this order PHX, LAX, Long Beach, PHX, PHX, FAT, FAT, LAX, SLC, LWS. I purposely self quarantined myself when I got home as I didn't want to be that silent carrier of this.

We live in a county, Nez Perce County, ID, with a reported population IIRC of 40,369. We have 5 reported cases and yet 3 deaths of NPC residents so far, 2 of which occurred across the Snake River at the hospital in Clarkston, WA and one in Lewiston. This merely shows that even living in a sparsely populated area is no guarantee of a safe community.

[John K Jordan]

Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves. Why? In normal medical situations, they are one-time use and get discarded between tasks which prevents the spread of nefarious things. If we, the public, wear nitrile or other similar gloves while out and about, we may be "protecting" ourselves slightly, but we're also spreading the nasties around as we go about our business and touch things. ...

I guess I don't see much difference between using or not using gloves as related to spreading nasties while out and about and touching things.

I think carrying hand sanitizer and using it repeatedly either on the skin OR on the gloves during the grocery store circuit should help equally. Gloves may give a slight edge as they could keep the nasties from hiding under the fingernails. One thing I found when wearing gloves and a mask is both reminded me not to touch my face. I do like stripping the gloves off and discarding them inside-out after loading the groceries in the car.

I raided my shop plus farm stash when all this started and have about 500 disposable gloves on hand, plenty to share with family, friends, and neighbors. (We go through a lot of gloves working with animals!) I asked my Dr if he wanted some but he said they had plenty.

BTW, these are the bottles I buy in quantity for shop and now, hand sanitizer - 4 oz is a good size for pocket and vehicle. Before I started making hand sanitizer I'd pump commercial sanitizer into these from a large container.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B074XM547S
(I like the kind with a "press disk" top better since the cap can't be lost, but I couldn't find any I liked in a 4 oz size.)

JKJ

[Jim Becker]

I think carrying hand sanitizer and using it repeatedly either on the skin OR on the gloves during the grocery store circuit should help equally.

Therein lies the rub...literally. Too many folks wear the gloves and don't sanitize between uses or even locations they visit...

Sanitizer...here's the way to buy at this point...distillery produced. $6.99 for a bottle. The reason there are two in this photo taken by my good friend is that he, um...failed to listen to me about the size being offered....and when he ordered his food market order for curb-side pickup, he asked them to add two bottles of sanitizer, thinking they were the small Purell portable size. I think he's covered for this pandemic and the next at least. LOL

sanitizer.jpg

[Ken Fitzgerald]

Therein lies the rub...literally. Too many folks wear the gloves and don't sanitize between uses or even locations they visit...

Sanitizer...here's the way to buy at this point...distillery produced. $6.99 for a bottle. The reason there are two in this photo taken by my good friend is that he, um...failed to listen to me about the size being offered....and when he ordered his food market order for curb-side pickup, he asked them to add two bottles of sanitizer, thinking they were the small Purell portable size. I think he's covered for this pandemic and the next at least. LOL

sanitizer.jpg

Two distilleries close to us, one in Spokane and one in Boise have joined the crusade to produce hand sanitizer so we may be able to buy those larger bottles locally manufactured.