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Thread: I hope this data is wrong

  1. #1
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    I hope this data is wrong

    A chart in a Bloomberg article today caught my eye. It shows the rate of coronavirus spread in various countries counting from the date of the first 100 cases. I cannot verify the data or even their source quickly. I can't remember, when did we hit 100,000 cases, was it on Friday 3/27?

    I've been watching the curve from other sources but this one is easier to follow.

    virus_Bloomberg_Mar29.jpg

    I didn't digitize or even measure the plot to get numbers. However, I drew a quick line for a simple projection for the USA based on the slope of the curve over the last few days. Note the scale on the right is logarithmic and increases 10x for each division. Note the scale on the bottom is every six days.

    virus_projection_Bloomberg_Mar29.jpg

    IF this data source is correct and my simple projection is fairly close,
    then,
    IF the rate of infection continues along that line the number of cases will hit 1 million in less than 12 days from 100 cases,
    and,
    IF the slope stays the same, we will have 10 million cases in less than 12 days later.
    And this is likely to go on for months?

    For today's number from Wordometers.info the USA death rate is about 1.7% of infections. You do the math.

    Note that the curves for some European countries have similar slopes for now. The slope for Italy is decreasing a bit.

    I might go hide under my bed. Call me if the data changes. This rate MUST slow.

    JKJ

  2. #2
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    Scary News and getting worse every day.

  3. #3
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    Data is not wrong. I have been following various sources including the mentioned website. They all have similar data.

    Simple extrapolation assumes no change in conditions and endless supply of population.

    Even in worst case curve has to flatten when everyone is infected. If no measures are in place, we would see exponential increase before curve is flattened.

    With isolation, we have lower rate of increase of infection. Ideally, we will flatten the curve before everyone is infected or better majority is not infected. Next, we want to keep the number low enough that our medical system is not overwhelmed.

    With all the measures is place and hopefully more to come, we should see flattening in 3-4 weeks. Goes without saying that failure on part of people and government will prolong the period. We have to remember that growth rate is exponential, and any delay means huge impact.

    Overall, I personally believe, better numbers are few weeks away and not months.

  4. #4
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    The slope of that curve is what the social distancing and the shelter in place are supposed to affect. We were first, or close, in the US here in the 6 SF Bay Area counties and getting close to two weeks. Since COVID-19 has an incubation period of 7-14 days, we should start to see our curve roll off soon if the effort is working. We may be too small to be statistically significant, but California as a whole is less than a week behind us, with most states having joined in as they started to see cases increase. It's going to be an interesting month in the US. Sadly your curve is what I've seen from experts and under your bed isn't the worst place right now.

    (PS- sorry my numbers are fuzzy. Cabin fever has made this a blur and I'm too lazy to look up the exact dates.)

  5. #5
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    Problem is that this information is in front of the people following the guidelines of social distancing. The people not following the guidelines either arenít informed or donít care.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Day View Post
    Problem is that this information is in front of the people following the guidelines of social distancing. The people not following the guidelines either arenít informed or donít care.
    Yes, Andy, et. al., my point was if nothing else changes, this could describe one possible scenario. I very much hope that with increased education on distancing and prevention, massive testing direct isolation, advances in treatment, and perhaps the quick development of effective inoculation the curve will change for the better, especially if the authorities are behind it. But it could get even worse quickly if people don't change their behavior.

    Around here, many people don't seem to be concerned that another person could possibly be an infected carrier with no symptoms. Just this weekend I went out to get diesel fuel for the tractor (the gas stations were almost deserted!) and at one house I saw at least 8 cars in one driveway/yard, all the people perhaps jammed together inside the small house celebrating Aunt Maude's birthday or something. I see young people hanging out in groups, multiple parents taking kids to a small park. Our county has only 6 reported cases, but how many are unreported or asymptomatic and interacting with the community?

    We made a grocery run today at the "senior's hour" and I was pleased to see more people wearing gloves and masks and everyone politely waiting for others to pass to keep a distance.

    And last night I made another dozen small bottles of hand sanitizer to pass out. At first when I asked people if they needed some most said no; now more people are saying yes.

    JKJ

  7. #7
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    Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves. Why? In normal medical situations, they are one-time use and get discarded between tasks which prevents the spread of nefarious things. If we, the public, wear nitrile or other similar gloves while out and about, we may be "protecting" ourselves slightly, but we're also spreading the nasties around as we go about our business and touch things. Frequent hand washing with soap and using sanitizer when we must is actually a better collective solution to help reduce the spread of disease. Masks, on the other hand, may very well do more to help reduce the spread than originally anticipated and that includes non-N95/non-commercial solutions. Why? It helps reduce transmission from folks who are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic from ejecting live virus directly into the air around them. It's not perfect, but certainly can help.

    And I agree, John, that there are still way too many people who "don't get it" around the seriousness of the situation and how it can be unknowingly spread by those who have it with no symptoms or those who have contracted it but have not begun to have symptoms. Aunt Maude's birthday could have been just as much fun via Zoom or FaceTime.
    --

    The most expensive tool is the one you buy "cheaply" and often...

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  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Hennebury View Post
    That is an amazing animation!
    Makes you wonder how our US leaders can be putting so much energy into congratulating themselves. Maybe they think the contest is to have the most number of cases?

    The graphic would say we all have something to learn from S. Korea.

  10. #10
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    Purely from internet reading:

    Gloves made of cotton or other absorbing material maybe help though. It seems it reduces the spread and eventually virus disintegrates.

    All said, sticking with hand wash and sanitizers is preferred and better.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by John K Jordan View Post
    For today's number from Wordometers.info the USA death rate is about 1.7% of infections.J
    Scary, but the relevant information is how much deaths-by-cornoa-virus adds to the death rate that would be occurring without the virus. In a given week, some patients that have corona virus and die would have died from other causes if they didn't have the virus.

  12. #12
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    An informal poll taken yesterday by folks that frequent the Silver Lake Sand Dune FB group. 842 responded. 58% still out working, 24% can't work, 15% were working from home with a few scattered other responses.

    As others have said, image the toll if C-19 were as deadly as Ebola with a death rate of 50%, rather than 2%. And don't forget AIDS/HIV which caused 32 million deaths to date and still kills 700,000 per year. https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/
    Last edited by Ole Anderson; 03-30-2020 at 2:54 PM.
    NOW you tell me...

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Becker View Post
    Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves.
    The reason to be carefull about gloves other than the simple lack of protocol with regards to the users is coming to fruition even in our "last-in" state. The gloves are being tossed down on the pavement in a rationality to rid ones self of the the contamination rather than walking them to a trash can.

    These are the times when one can have a morbidly delusional hope that the wasters and door knob lickers of the planet are the ones that are eliminated but unfortunately they will most definitely come out the other side while the rule followers will die.
    Sometimes I just want to look at pretty pictures,... Thats when I go to the Turners Forum

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edwin Santos View Post
    That is an amazing animation!
    Makes you wonder how our US leaders can be putting so much energy into congratulating themselves. Maybe they think the contest is to have the most number of cases?

    The graphic would say we all have something to learn from S. Korea.
    It seems to me that if self directed superlatives were to be removed, some of those info meetings would be really short.

  15. #15
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    When comparing numbers remember we are in the earliest stages of this virus and resultant pandemic. It's a gross misstatement IMO, to compare the number of deaths caused by other viruses knowing that the others are pretty much history or at least, pretty well contained while this virus is just starting.

    It's the asymptomatic carriers I worry about most. In less than 2 weeks time, my wife were in the following airports in this order PHX, LAX, Long Beach, PHX, PHX, FAT, FAT, LAX, SLC, LWS. I purposely self quarantined myself when I got home as I didn't want to be that silent carrier of this.

    We live in a county, Nez Perce County, ID, with a reported population IIRC of 40,369. We have 5 reported cases and yet 3 deaths of NPC residents so far, 2 of which occurred across the Snake River at the hospital in Clarkston, WA and one in Lewiston. This merely shows that even living in a sparsely populated area is no guarantee of a safe community.
    Last edited by Ken Fitzgerald; 03-30-2020 at 7:15 PM.
    Ken

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