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Thread: What can we learn from this

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Becker View Post
    Edwin, some percentage of folks will be ready and willing to accept certain limits of freedom to serve the greater good during a societal event like a major pandemic, some percentage will need to be convinced and some percentage will say something akin to "over my dead body". We've seen exactly this already here in the US as jurisdictions issue guidelines or stronger mandates. There have even been legal actions taken by some kinds of businesses mandated to close; one here in PA went right to the PA Supreme Court who also denied the relief. The governor later allowed a waiver to be worked out but with restrictions around health safety kept in mind.
    True dat! I'm not advocating any one side, but it will be an interesting issue to see play out. All I can say is the price of individual liberty continues to ratchet up and as you point out, people can have very different price points that they are willing to pay .

  2. #32
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    Thanks Jeff, for the info on ventilators. With all the concern over them, I was wondering how many were in actual use.
    It sounds to me that we were probably ahead of most industrialized countries on our preparedness before the crisis.

    As has been mentioned, there is no way we can be prepared for major events of all types. No country can afford that, the best we can do is have planning, and generalized command systems in place, which can be modified quickly to address emergencies, whether they be natural, military, or environmental. I was impressed with the way our country has handled it so far.

    No country can afford a policeman on every corner, fire station every few blocks, reservoirs that will outlast any drought, electric lines that never blow down, dams that will hold back any flood, and local medical centers close enough to have doctors, nurses, and medicines available immediately for massive needs.

    That is why we, as citizens have the responsibility of obeying temporary emergency rules that may cause discomfort or inconvenience. Our job is to try to be part of the solution, and not adding to the problem.
    Last edited by Rick Potter; 03-25-2020 at 2:58 PM.
    Rick Potter

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    FWW wannabe.
    AKA Village Idiot.

  3. #33
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    Rick, an important part of that preparedness is actually doing the preparing...having a construct on response that gives a defined framework to work from so there can be consistency and fairness. It's true that there will be resource issues because every event is a little different, but have mechanisms setup to respond to them. For example, a pandemic like this requires PPE. We certainly can't stockpile huge amounts of it, but having a reasonable supply available and a plan in place to bring additional manufacturing online quickly, either in the industry or cooperatively cross-industry would be a nice thing. We as a society can't accept "we'll put something together" after the fact...but we can accept a thoughtful plan for dealing with a pandemic just like we have a pretty good framework in place for national defense. Different threat but same level of professional planning.
    --

    The most expensive tool is the one you buy "cheaply" and often...

  4. #34
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    One problem we have is some folks can not see having people preparing for an emergency in times when there isn't an emergency.

    On more than one of my jobs when the idea of logistical planning was mentioned the reply was usually, "we aren't set up that way."

    Many systems appear to be set up for handling today's problem today with no thought of preventing today's problem from recurring a week from today.

    The inertia of not changing how things are done in a business is one of the most difficult forces to overcome.

    jtk
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
    - Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Potter View Post
    Thanks Jeff, for the info on ventilators. With all the concern over them, I was wondering how many were in actual use.
    It sounds to me that we were probably ahead of most industrialized countries on our preparedness before the crisis.

    As has been mentioned, there is no way we can be prepared for major events of all types. No country can afford that, the best we can do is have planning, and generalized command systems in place, which can be modified quickly to address emergencies, whether they be natural, military, or environmental.
    A command economy can do this. (Look at what the North Koreans have been able to accomplish with almost no resources. And historically, the Soviets.) That's what the Defense Production Act was meant to do, turn parts of our economy into that sort of system. It just has to be _used_, with purpose. It's part of already existing American law. Look also (historically again) at how America responded to the surprise attack at Pearl Harbor, it was awe-inspiring.
    Last edited by Doug Dawson; 03-25-2020 at 3:52 PM.

  6. #36
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    A lesson that we learned here locally is that schools are a great place to distribute food but school employees shouldn't be responsible for the distribution.

    School administrators & teachers had less than two days to develop & execute a remote learning plan but had to prioritize plans for getting needed food to students. Next they realized that they would be responsible for executing the plan.

    They setup & staff two distribution sites in parking lots for families who have transportation to pickup two meals a day. They also deliver those meals to families without transportation. On Friday afternoons they assemble backpacks with food for the weekends then distribute them.

    I expect that many other states have a similar statistic to our number of 42% of families get free or discounted meals. We also have many school districts that every student gets free meals.

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Becker View Post
    Rick, an important part of that preparedness is actually doing the preparing...having a construct on response that gives a defined framework to work from so there can be consistency and fairness. It's true that there will be resource issues because every event is a little different, but have mechanisms setup to respond to them. For example, a pandemic like this requires PPE. We certainly can't stockpile huge amounts of it, but having a reasonable supply available and a plan in place to bring additional manufacturing online quickly, either in the industry or cooperatively cross-industry would be a nice thing. We as a society can't accept "we'll put something together" after the fact...but we can accept a thoughtful plan for dealing with a pandemic just like we have a pretty good framework in place for national defense. Different threat but same level of professional planning.
    Supply and manufacturing response plans are great ideas, but so too might a good plan for prevention and containment of the pandemic in the first place. Singapore, having learned a lot from SARS, dropped their containment measures in place like an anvil and thus never experienced a shortage of ventilators, PPE or hospital beds. How cool is that?

    Taiwan and Hong Kong utilized similar techniques and also avoided membership in the hotspot club. Here is an article that discusses it: https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus...g-kong-taiwan/

    I think one of the disconnects for us in the US is the idea that containment measures are not necessary or justifiable unless and until the cases start rising. In some of these other places, they adopted containment measures very quickly in order to prevent the cases from rising in the first place. I hope that our future preparedness will include an expectation that we might do the same at the earliest stage and try to think in preventative terms. Of course, this raises the issue of personal freedom and whether we are willing to tolerate limitations in our daily lives before the damage is apparent. Perhaps these other countries, especially Singapore, might have had advantages in this regard.

    IMO Italy, the UK and the US have all approached containment in incremental baby steps, and I fear that in the end, those decisions might contribute to a much deeper outbreak as a result. Time will tell.
    Interesting discussion.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edwin Santos View Post
    Supply and manufacturing response plans are great ideas, but so too might a good plan for prevention and containment of the pandemic in the first place. Singapore, having learned a lot from SARS, dropped their containment measures in place like an anvil and thus never experienced a shortage of ventilators, PPE or hospital but time will tell..
    That's absolutely true...I was just presenting one example. Having a degree in Logistics (despite never working in that actual field after my first job out of school LOL) that was what first came to mind because of how it relates to a key issue "in the wild" right now.
    --

    The most expensive tool is the one you buy "cheaply" and often...

  9. #39
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    Heck more and more hospitals are being swallowed up into one big one. That is why there is a shortage. There is no way to predict what the next huge problem will be. Do not forget we are not alone in this so no matter how much we prepare who else is?? I have never seen anything like this. Maybe others who are older have but how we come out of this and if we do learn anything can only help down the road.
    John T.

  10. #40
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    I've put some thought into the stockpiles.

    It would be great if we stockpiled masks but masks expire. It's like a prepper cycling canned beans. The thing to do would be for the government to have that stockpile but supply the VA, military and other users from it while refreshing stock. It would probably also be a good idea for the government to subsidize the same strategy by hospitals.

    The strategy for ventilators would be a bit different. I'm no expert but I bet you can't just put a hospital ventilator in a warehouse and expect it to work in 10 years. I would propose that we have a design for a ventilator that can be built quickly and we stockpile parts using the same strategy as above. We should also contract with some manufacturers to keep them in a 'warm backup' state where they can shift to making ventilators at scale very quickly.

  11. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Roger Feeley View Post
    I've put some thought into the stockpiles.

    It would be great if we stockpiled masks but masks expire. It's like a prepper cycling canned beans. The thing to do would be for the government to have that stockpile but supply the VA, military and other users from it while refreshing stock. It would probably also be a good idea for the government to subsidize the same strategy by hospitals.
    Why do you think this? Do masks have a limited storage life?
    Is an "old"mask that was boxed in storage any less effective than a "new" mask?

  12. #42
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    Edwin, some components of some PPE might degrade over time...elastic comes to mind. Professor Dr. SWMBO is making some masks "as wel speak" and half of her stash of elastic is not usable because it's too old. So on the concept of stock rotation, there is good reason for that for some items.
    --

    The most expensive tool is the one you buy "cheaply" and often...

  13. #43
    Perhaps use simple cloth ties; no elastic.

  14. #44
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    Heard had big stock pile but after h1n1 never restocked the emergency supply. What we learned is all politicans add pork to any bill. Its in their dna.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Terefenko View Post
    Heck more and more hospitals are being swallowed up into one big one. That is why there is a shortage. There is no way to predict what the next huge problem will be. Do not forget we are not alone in this so no matter how much we prepare who else is?? I have never seen anything like this. Maybe others who are older have but how we come out of this and if we do learn anything can only help down the road.
    One journalist pointed to one part of the problem being many hospitals today are run for profit. They would be ignoring their fiduciary responsibilities by purchasing more supplies than their normal projected need.

    My health provider has remained a nonprofit organization.

    Quote Originally Posted by Edwin Santos View Post
    [edited]
    I hope that our future preparedness will include an expectation that we might do the same at the earliest stage and try to think in preventative terms. Of course, this raises the issue of personal freedom and whether we are willing to tolerate limitations in our daily lives before the damage is apparent. Perhaps these other countries, especially Singapore, might have had advantages in this regard.

    IMO Italy, the UK and the US have all approached containment in incremental baby steps, and I fear that in the end, those decisions might contribute to a much deeper outbreak as a result. Time will tell.
    Interesting discussion.
    The effectiveness of such action all depends on who has the responsibility to take action and will they take that responsibility.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger Feeley View Post
    I've put some thought into the stockpiles.

    It would be great if we stockpiled masks but masks expire. It's like a prepper cycling canned beans. The thing to do would be for the government to have that stockpile but supply the VA, military and other users from it while refreshing stock. It would probably also be a good idea for the government to subsidize the same strategy by hospitals.

    The strategy for ventilators would be a bit different. I'm no expert but I bet you can't just put a hospital ventilator in a warehouse and expect it to work in 10 years. I would propose that we have a design for a ventilator that can be built quickly and we stockpile parts using the same strategy as above. We should also contract with some manufacturers to keep them in a 'warm backup' state where they can shift to making ventilators at scale very quickly.
    In many of our past disasters and crisis situations it often occurs we should have strategic warehousing of some items. These would be located throughout the nation in locations considered safe from flooding or other natural/predictable obstacles to access. They could store many of the items commonly in short supply when disaster strikes. Continuous rotation of product in and out for normal commerce would keep items fresh. When a disaster strikes the materials could be redirected to address emergency needs.

    jtk
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
    - Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

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