Is a Recession coming?

[Sean Etchason]

Contrary to popular belief people can and do Time / Beat the Market... Hell I was out of the market with my personal account before the poo hit the fan because I didn't argue with the market or my trading discipline. Just because most don't time /beat the market doesn't mean it can't be done... It's very interesting that someone said to ride the selloff down 50%, do you realize that in order to break even you would need a 100% gain from the current value?

Example:

Bought XYZ company at $100.00 per share

Stock went down 50% and XYZ company is now worth $50.00 per share

In order to break even the stock would have to make a 100% move from its current price; how likely is that?

Not being in cash/on the sidelines because of (FOMO) Fear of Missing Out/buying stocks because they are on sale is a foolish logic and will only cause financial pain.

A quote form one of the greatest traders...

“There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing.”

-Jessie Livermore

Now is the time to go fishing.

[Doug Dawson]

Contrary to popular belief people can and do Time / Beat the Market...

Not in the long term, and not across the board. I used to be into stocks, now it's just index funds, Warren Buffet not so long ago made a substantial bet that nobody among the best stock pickers could over some non-trivial period of time beat the S&P 500, and some took it, and none of them won.

BTW, if anyone would suggest that Buffet himself might better have invested in the S&P 500, he was not an "investor" per se, he was the _owner_, having maneuvered himself into spectacular sources of cash flow, etc. (Buy some insurance companies, then nobody knows what's going on except you. :^)

Now is the time to go fishing.

Maybe. Who knows.

[Sean Etchason]

Not in the long term, and not across the board. I used to be into stocks, now it's just index funds, Warren Buffet not so long ago made a substantial bet that nobody among the best stock pickers could over some non-trivial period of time beat the S&P 500, and some took it, and none of them won.

BTW, if anyone would suggest that Buffet himself might better have invested in the S&P 500, he was not an "investor" per se, he was the _owner_, having maneuvered himself into spectacular sources of cash flow, etc. (Buy some insurance companies, then nobody knows what's going on except you. :^)



Maybe. Who knows.

Warren did have a bet but it was with HEDGE FUND MANAGERS... Hedge funds operate with an enormous amount of money and take weeks, months or years to get into and out of the market. If I operated as a hedge fund then sure I would perform like them but I don't operate like them because I can maneuver much more quickly because I don't have hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. If you're competing as a sprinter you won't train as a marathon runner... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/warr...years-ago.html

Buffet is also on a different level than 99.99% of investors he is involved in all sorts of arbitrage and investment vehicles to limit risk and raise alpha.

Ultimately, ones belief system will dictate whether or not they can or can't do something. Human behavior tends to make us seek out information that aligns with our thinking rather than challenges it.

[Doug Dawson]

Warren did have a bet but it was with HEDGE FUND MANAGERS... Hedge funds operate with an enormous amount of money and take weeks, months or years to get into and out of the market. If I operated as a hedge fund then sure I would perform like them but I don't operate like them because I can maneuver much more quickly because I don't have hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. If you're competing as a sprinter you won't train as a marathon runner... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/warr...years-ago.html

Buffet is also on a different level than 99.99% of investors he is involved in all sorts of arbitrage and investment vehicles to limit risk and raise alpha.

Ultimately, ones belief system will dictate whether or not they can or can't do something. Human behavior tends to make us seek out information that aligns with our thinking rather than challenges it.

Hedge fund managers are uber stock pickers, but with more money and resources than you or I. Speaking of agility, some of them have invested in high-speed data lines that can show them what's going on before it even hits the Big Board, and they can take advantage of that (and pay people handsomely to do so.)

Many pension funds rely on them.

So much of retail (even institutional) market activity is at the mercy of skilled salesmanship. Follow the money. And look at the results.