Coronavirus _ worried?

[Malcolm McLeod]

...So far the market has lost 11.5 Trillion dollars in value.
...

Another way to view this is that the market is now worth $34.5T. A large number in my experience. Give or take a $Trillion.

For some the glass is 1/4 empty; others see it as 3/4 full.

Maybe also compare 2009-2010 swine flu (h1n1) numbers..? And media reports. Interesting contrast to now. ....I wonder why?

[Robert Engel]

It's just the start, however the biggest problem is if/when it overwhelms the healthcare system. At that point, more people are going to die than otherwise would. Simply because the resources do not exist to treat everyone. This is what has happened in Italy.

It does nobody any good to think in doomsday terms.

First, I would not compare health systems. Second many other cultural factors come into play such as pollution, rate of smoking, population density (China is bad on all these) hygiene, and, probably to some degree genetic factors. Third, the US is taking action that all the experts agree are helping limit the spread

I am confident the number of people who have contracted the virus is orders of magnitude higher that we know. The deaths we do know about - 36 so far. And it’s most certainly not only 1215 cases (latest CDC #), more likely in the tens of thousands - maybe more. Again this is because of subclinical/mild cases never tested.. This shouldn’t scare us this should give us comfort that this is a virus of low virulence (for normal healthy people).

And, also keep in mind that the virus itself can change (mutate) often into a less virulent strain as time goes by. And a mutation has already been discovered.

What we know: First and foremost people who have recovered are now immune! I almost wish I would get it and be done with it!

1. Young people appear to be unaffected. Its seems virtually no documented cases of clinical disease in children under 12-14 years of age.

2. The majority of infections in people under 60 (estimated 70-80%) are either completely symptom free, or mild symptoms one would experience with a bad cold or mild case of the flu.

3. A small percentage will experience more sever symptoms similar to the flu and require medical treatment.

4. An even smaller % will die. The highest risk group are the elderly in community living environments, immunologically challenges (chemotherapy, etc), certain preexisting respiratory conditions, etc. This is where the emphasis is. It affects so many of us personally. I have a son with psoriasis who is taking medicine that increases his risk. Fortunately he is only 28 so I am not as worried as I might be for an elderly parent in assisted living facility.

5. The numbers. While the actual numbers seem low compared to flu, no it’s not over yet but we can look at other countries and it does appear much less severe than the flu, SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc. Unfortunately we can’t trust China numbers for perspective on that.

Basing the mortality rate on confirmed infections is a huge error. Not only inaccurate, it only serves to fuel public panic and stress. Mortality rates are always retrospective and in this case will never be accurately known because many infections are asymptomatic/low morbidity. You don’t have to be an epidemiologist, this is just common sense. These people are not going to be tested and therefore never factored into the statistics.

6. IMO overall the media is doing a disservice. I’ve seen a lot of reporting that is hyping and amping up, which it seems that is the SOP nowadays. We’ve had 36 deaths so far and you would think it was 36,000. The economy is melting down ever something it shouldn’t.

We all need to take a deep breath and use common sense. Realize you can’t totally prevent getting it.

For myself, the news is off (highly recommended!), my shop is filled with the sounds of the 60’s/70’s. I’m drinking my Kombucha ��, I have zicam and vitC on hand. I’m 64 yrs old & healthy but I’m avoiding big crowds anyway. I am exposed to the public at my work, I wash my hands between customers and I observant of sneezing coughing people. But I do this anyway.

Sorry for the wordiness, just throwing my 2 cents in.

[Matt Day]

Well said Robert, but a couple points. I think a lot of fear, and rightly so, is the fear of the unknown. The virus isn’t totally understood but our top professionals and our government has been slow to respond. We also rely way too much on critical items produced overseas, like IV bags, masks, sanitizing products, etc.

And yes it can mutate, but not always for the better. Fingers crossed it will be somewhat seasonal like the flu, but depending on the strain there’s no way to tell.

As far as cultural conditions, one thing the US has against it is obesity and it’s associated health effects puts you at an increased risk.

I think people should be prepared with a cache of stored food and avoid being out in public as much as you can. Don’t go on that trip you planned months ago, for gods sake don’t go on a cruise, and thankfully concerts and sporting events and Disney have closed.

[Frederick Skelly]

I read this point on an authoritative site and it connected some dots for me: One big reason for cancelling events and other gatherings is to slow the spread so that health care doesnt get overwhelmed. That's pretty obvious in hindsight, but I hadnt seen it put quite so succinctly and I found it helpful.

Me? I'm worried about the workers. Some people cannot telecommute and I'm betting a fair number wont get paid. Janitors and many others come to mind. I read a touching story about some NBA player has put up $100,000 to help the folks at their stadium that are impacted by the suspension. I sure hope to see a lot more of that kind of generocity.

[Mark Rainey]

I read this point on an authoritative site and it connected some dots for me: One big reason for cancelling events and other gatherings is to slow the spread so that health care doesnt get overwhelmed. That's pretty obvious in hindsight, but I hadnt seen it put quite so succinctly and I found it helpful.

I agree Fred. We should shut all non-essential activity down. Italy’s health care system in overwhelmed. If our rate of spread continues, our hospitals will also be overwhelmed & people will die because of lack of proper treatment.

[mike stenson]

I agree Fred. We should shut all non-essential activity down. Italy’s health care system in overwhelmed. If our rate of spread continues, our hospitals will also be overwhelmed & people will die because of lack of proper treatment.

Yep. It's all about flattening the infection/time curve.

Ignoring worst case scenario is, frankly, stupid. Knowing it allows you to rationally respond, without panic.

[Pat Barry]

Yep. It's all about flattening the infection/time curve.

Ignoring worst case scenario is, frankly, stupid. Knowing it allows you to rationally respond, without panic.

Keep in mind that flattening curve just means prolonging the issue. Sure it should alleviate the pressure on hospitals clinics and personnel, but ut doesn't do much to reduce the total number infected or dead. Best hope is that by the end if this there might be a vaccine with 50% efficacy. That 50% is even a bit optimistic given known efficacy of flu vaccines. Death rate should come down, but nobody knows how much.

On a different tangent, The local grocery supermarket was almost out of 3 racks of toilet paper again today.

[Doug Garson]

Flattening the curve doesn't mean prolonging the issue, it means saving lives. If the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed people who would survive with proper treatment will not receive that treatment and die.

[Pat Barry]

Flattening the curve doesn't mean prolonging the issue, it means saving lives. If the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed people who would survive with proper treatment will not receive that treatment and die.

That brings up something that seems to be lacking in the data. For those requiring hospitalization, what is the success rate?

[Edwin Santos]

Keep in mind that flattening curve just means prolonging the issue. Sure it should alleviate the pressure on hospitals clinics and personnel, but ut doesn't do much to reduce the total number infected or dead.

This information is completely incorrect, according to Dr. Fauci who gave an informative interview in CNN's Coronavirus town hall special last night. I thought it was a very informative, factual program. If you don't believe me, stream it and listen for yourself.

Edwin

[Darcy Warner]

Nope, do not care. I have stuff to do and deadlines to meet.

[Jim Koepke]

Keep in mind that flattening curve just means prolonging the issue. Sure it should alleviate the pressure on hospitals clinics and personnel, but ut doesn't do much to reduce the total number infected or dead. Best hope is that by the end if this there might be a vaccine with 50% efficacy. That 50% is even a bit optimistic given known efficacy of flu vaccines. Death rate should come down, but nobody knows how much.

On a different tangent, The local grocery supermarket was almost out of 3 racks of toilet paper again today.

You may be looking at this incorrectly. Flattening the curve is accomplished by breaking the chain of Covid-19 spread. Breaking the spread means less people infected, not spreading out the timing of infection.

The low efficacy of flu vaccines is due to the having to choose which varieties of flu will be included in the vaccines. If my memory is working the making of a flu vaccine is limited to four different inactive virus strains. Then it takes about a year to produce significant doses of a vaccine. Some years the committee choosing the vaccine make up are on the spot. Some years they choose all the wrong strains.

There were only a few rolls of toilet paper at the store we went to yesterday. They were the marine toilet paper 4 pack for ~$5 and some single eco-rolls at $1.25 each.

Maybe this would be a good time to take note of what is disappearing from the shelves so next time when we hear of an outbreak in China or anywhere else we can head out early and buy an extra large pack of TP, a bottle or two of sanitizer and a case or two of Twinkies.

jtk

[Kev Williams]

On a different tangent, The local grocery supermarket was almost out of 3 racks of toilet paper again today.

I did some grocery shopping late last night at Winco, when I got there at 1:30am the parking lot was a good 1/3 full, and the 5 or so checkstands had carts about 3 deep waiting. What the store was totally out of save for the occasional scraps:
bread
TP
most fresh vegetables
most fresh fruit
flour
frozen vegetables
cheap meat, no chicken anywhere, no burger-
--------
They were low on soups, pasta, sauces--

They had plenty of dairy, lots of eggs, milk, cottage cheese & stuff, also lots of snacks, frozen pizzas, burritos, family meals, taquitos...

and they had lots of paper towels, which I also saw in a lot of shopping carts, which leads me to a prediction: in a week or so, there will be a shortage of drain-clearing plumbers and city workers needed in manholes to clean out all the paper towels used for what they were never designed for

[John K Jordan]

Nope, do not care. I have stuff to do and deadlines to meet.

Unfortunately that was the attitude in Italy at first. They had 1 case on Feb 20.

As of yesterday, just 3 weeks later, they reported
17660 cases
1266 deaths
about 2500 new cases reported per day recently with current aggressive testing
The entire country is in lockdown.
We have friends in the north and hear the real stories of the impact.
Now, stuff is not getting done and deadlines are being missed.

We could learn from that.
Our local woodturning club canceled the March meeting next week.

[Mel Fulks]

Darcy is right. He is in a big place and I doubt he lets the hordes walk through to get to a bus stop. It's working in
a quarantine environment. I just wish my cave was that big ! And that the bears would move out !!