Coronavirus _ worried?

[Mike Henderson]

I am not a human epidemiologist, but I am in the medical field somewhat familiar with infectious diseases.

One aspect to understand about spread is subclinical (non symptomatic) infections. These are people (young children apparently rarely show symptoms) who become infected and do not get sick at all. If everyone got sick, they could be isolated. But subclinical people will never be isolated nor tested but they can shed the virus. With this in mind, what surprises me is the apparent lack of spread, which of course could change.

So far 21 people out of 3500 on a cruise ship (19 crew, 2 passengers) tested positive. It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

Ultimately an epidemiological study based on antibodies (exposure) has to be done to determine the true mortality rate. IOW antibody testing will show if you have ever been infected, whereas the current test only shows the presence of the virus, which is NOT a determiner of illness. I have read the WHO estimate of 3.4% mortality will be shown to be severely overestimated when this is all over. It more likely to be as low as 0.1%.

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IMO the media is more dangerous than the virus! IMO the public has been unnecessarily panicked. 17 deaths and the stock market crashes?

People need to listen to knowledgeable people like Dr. Ben Carson, who are trying to educate, not panic. Also quite sad to see it being made into a political issue by the media and other people who will stop at nothing to denigrate their opponent.

That said, there is no vaccine and there are categories of people at higher risk. If I were immunologically challenged, on chemo, over 70, or working in a child care facility, hospital, etc I would be concerned.

But the hysteria promulgated by the media and politicians will not help anyone.

First half good commentary.

Second half politics.

Mike

[Stephen Tashiro]

We are light years ahead of the response to SARS.

How many deaths were there in the USA due to SARS? The Wikipedia says zero.

[Edwin Santos]

Good site. Thanks for posting. How did you find that site?

Mike

Mike,

I found it through good old fashioned word of mouth. A friend is agonizing over his upcoming trip to Vietnam in a couple of weeks and has been trawling the travel forums where that particular virus update site has become popular. I just marvel at the skills and initiative of the high school kid that put it together. I'd say he has a bright future with Google or someone like that. I used the donate button and bought him a coffee today.

The recovered stats were a good reality check for me. Of course it would be better if there was no virulent flu variant like COVID-19 running around, but at least there are a considerable number of people recovering and from what I hear, a considerable number showing mild or no symptoms.
Edwin

[Edwin Santos]

It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

I have been wondering if testing positive necessarily means getting sick. Does anyone know if is possible to catch the virus but not become sick per se? I know there is talk of infected people being asymptomatic, but is that only during an incubation period, or can a person be asymptomatic during the entire spell of illness?

I've heard reports that children are less susceptible to the virus, but schools are being closed in places anyway, the implied reason being that a kid might not get sick but still become a carrier and then bring it home where it spreads in the community. But I'm not certain I'm understanding the news reports on this specific issue properly hence the question.
Maybe because it's a novel virus, some of the answers to such questions are still not known. For example, another question - if virus germs can be left behind on say, a handrail, by an infected person, how long can those germs survive? Minutes, hours, days, weeks?

The CDC website doesn't address these questions. And there is a lot of fluid language like "it is thought that....", "the virus may transmit....", "... could be at risk".
As the situation continues to unfold and more information is known, I think it will help alleviate panic.

Anyone who knows the answers to some of these questions, please chime in.
Edwin

[Doug Dawson]

For example, another question - if virus germs can be left behind on say, a handrail, by an infected person, how long can those germs survive? Minutes, hours, days, weeks?

I've heard the figure 9 hours being batted around, I don't remember the source (but I don't read junk science reporting.)

[Josko Catipovic]

This is gonna get ugly.

[David L Morse]

This article has some interesting data.

[Doug Dawson]

This article has some interesting data.

Wow, that's a good article, and worth reading. I take issue, however, with comparisons to the flu, because it depends on _which_ flu we're talking about. Some have proven far more deadly than others. (That gets lost in the conversation.)

[Robert Engel]

This article has some interesting data.

Briefly perused. I think there is some inaccurate information such as "high mortality rate in elderly". Its really more like "higher", just like the flu. I would take the mortality numbers with a grain of salt because there won't be any meaningful numbers until all the data is in for epdemiolgist to study..

China has a higher mortality rate for several reasons. Very poor air quality, cigarette smoking is rampant, they work 6 days a week, often 10-12 hours a day, and in the cities they are packed in like sardines in apartment buildings.

@Edwin: I don't understand the logic behind closing schools, as young children have an extremely low level of sickness. If they were carrying the virus to a school the only people really at risk would be the adults. Perhaps that is the reason.

It has been found many people contract Corona and either never have symptoms at all or just minor symptoms. But they will still shed virus until their immune system rids the body so therefore are still infectious to other people.

[Edwin Santos]

I've heard the figure 9 hours being batted around, I don't remember the source (but I don't read junk science reporting.)

Thanks, this is exactly what I have been trying to find out.

[Doug Dawson]

Thanks, this is exactly what I have been trying to find out.

I'm still going to kiss and hold hands with my wife. But that thing about handshakes with people you meet, that is so OVER. Now they just get the wiggly fingers. Nanu nanu. Or the Vulcan salute.

Live long and prosper.

[Steve Demuth]

I have been wondering if testing positive necessarily means getting sick. Does anyone know if is possible to catch the virus but not become sick per se? I know there is talk of infected people being asymptomatic, but is that only during an incubation period, or can a person be asymptomatic during the entire spell of illness?

I've heard reports that children are less susceptible to the virus, but schools are being closed in places anyway, the implied reason being that a kid might not get sick but still become a carrier and then bring it home where it spreads in the community.

You most definitely can become infected with virus and have no or very mild disease. Indeed, most people who are infected do not get very sick. But a fraction of infected persons become seriously ill, and a fraction of those die. The best numbers I've seen at work (in a major hospital) say 80% of infections overall are very mild, another 10-15% get the equivalent of a bad case of flu and 5-10% require hospitalization and some degree of intensive care.

According to China Centers for Disease Control, mortality in children under age 10 is almost 0, and the mortality rate increases with age from 10 on up (still very small) to 80 (at which age, China reported mortality of close to 15%).

These numbers are highly suspect, since it is highly likely that actual infections are undercounted, so the rate of non-symptomatic and non-serious disease is probably higher, and the mortality lower.

Interestingly, the increase in death rate closely mirrors the overall risk of death by age from all causes - if the Chinese numbers hold, then a person with Covid-19 is about 2-3 times as likely to die of the disease as they are to die in a given year from all other causes.

[Rich Engelhardt]

This article has some interesting data.

Sorry - anything that starts with a political slam is nothing in my book I care to read. I just file that under propaganda & mostly BS and/or unfounded opinion.


This link OTOH - has no political rhetoric. https://informationisbeautiful.net/v..._OD2b0AIn5Eh_Y

[Nicholas Lawrence]

Sorry - anything that starts with a political slam is nothing in my book I care to read. I just file that under propaganda & mostly BS and/or unfounded opinion.


This link OTOH - has no political rhetoric. https://informationisbeautiful.net/v..._OD2b0AIn5Eh_Y

The CDC has a pretty good website that they are updating regularly. They recommend cleaning high touch surfaces daily.

How long a virus can survive depends on a lot of factors (material, is it exposed to sunlight, etc.).

[Rich Engelhardt]

Not saying there isn't good info out there - just saying that one link above started out with a popup that slammed someone for not doing enough and put all the blame on him.
I'm way beyond being fed up with crap like that.