Coronavirus _ worried?

[Jim Koepke]

Crazy thing about testing as it sits right now is the tests come from the CDC and they all have to go back to the CDC to be read. That's grossly inefficient. Terrible way to manage a nationwide outbreak such as this.

Maybe that is what is meant by "having it under control," under very tight control.

jtk

[jeff norris 2011]

As for testing the cruise ship with over 4000 souls on board was given 43 test kits. 21 people tested positive.

The numbers in the US will skyrocket, if and when test kits become available in enough numbers to truly monitor the cases.

[Mike Henderson]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon. The one saving grace is that most people who are positive for the virus are not symptomatic or only exhibit mild symptoms. Of course, that's little comfort to the people who come down with life-threatening symptoms.

Take precautions and hope you don't get a life-threatening case.

Mike

[Just think what this would be like if the virus killed 50% of the people it infected. The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).]

[Doug Dawson]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon. The one saving grace is that most people who are positive for the virus are not symptomatic or only exhibit mild symptoms. Of course, that's little comfort to the people who come down with life-threatening symptoms.

Take precautions and hope you don't get a life-threatening case.

Mike

[Just think what this would be like if the virus killed 50% of the people it infected. The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).]

In that sense this whole thing is a beneficial wake-up call for people to change their ways before another far more insidious thing comes along (like that will never happen.) Something has to change in our culture. It's not just the ancient custom of the handshake, the thing that bugs me the most is those "transaction terminals" and touchscreens at stores that require you to lay fingers on stuff that hundreds of other people touch every day, and they are _rarely_ cleaned. I just stop and stare (and did so long before this current situation arose.)

[Frederick Skelly]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon. The one saving grace is that most people who are positive for the virus are not symptomatic or only exhibit mild symptoms. Of course, that's little comfort to the people who come down with life-threatening symptoms.

Take precautions and hope you don't get a life-threatening case.

Mike

[Just think what this would be like if the virus killed 50% of the people it infected. The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).]

I agree with you Mike. This genie is out of the bottle and it's going to be everywhere before long. (Spring Break is coming to help that along.) We are lucky that __this time__ it isn't something like the plague or ebola.

I'm not in healthcare, so I may be way off base here. But I'm skeptical that we'll learn from this and do things better next time. From an average citizen's viewpoint, how much better/different is the govt response to this outbreak than SARS, etc? IDK. It would be great (reassuring!) if someone who actually works in public health could comment here on that.

[Jim Koepke]

The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).

Fortunately mankind has learned much since then. People didn't have running water back then to keep their hands clean. Little was even known about the spread of disease at the time. Superstition also played a roll in the spread of the Black Death. Cats were thought to be in league with satanic forces and were killed. This left no predators for the rats who some believe were a main vector of the Black Death. Other sources say it was human to human via fleas and ticks living in the human population.

jtk

[Stephen Tashiro]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon.

It's always good advice to "Get your affairs in order". If there is no plague, there will still be traffic accidents.

Severe respiratory ailments put people on ventilators. People on ventilators are often so sick or sedated that they are not lucid. Hospitals will only keep illucid patients on ventilators for a month or so before they offer the choice of removing the patient from life support or transferring them to one of the few facilities in the country that offers long term care on ventilators. Make your wishes known, perhaps with a "living will". ( The situation won't necessarily be that you are unconscious. Illucid ventilator patients appear to have some conscious reactions.)

Declare beneficiaries for bank accounts and brokerage accounts. Keep in mind that when a CD rolls over, the beneficiaries of the old CD do not automatically transfer to the new CD. It helps the executor of the estate if the estate has cash to work with. A CD with no declared beneficiary will provide the estate with some funds.

In a will, if a person is to inherit a share and you want their family to inherit it if that person dies before you do, make it clear that the person gets the share "per stirpes".

[Rich Engelhardt]

Y'all keep talking about the Black Death - like it went away way back when.
Just like Leprosy - the Black Death is still among us....

[Curt Harms]

..................................................
I've decided to postpone my trip to Italy. Internal travel restrictions are increasing and most museums and things on our list like the Vatican are closed. And if I did go, I can imagine weeks in quarantine on return or even being denied rentry depending on the state of the official hysteria the end of May. My history of asthma, bronchitis, and occasional pneumonia (and age of 70) are other factors in my decision.

JKJ

Smart man. It seems like otherwise healthy people are not at significant risk. People with respiratory issues and other health concerns on the other hand need to minimize risk.

[Gregg Markowski]

I agree with you Mike. This genie is out of the bottle and it's going to be everywhere before long. (Spring Break is coming to help that along.) We are lucky that __this time__ it isn't something like the plague or ebola.

I'm not in healthcare, so I may be way off base here. But I'm skeptical that we'll learn from this and do things better next time. From an average citizen's viewpoint, how much better/different is the govt response to this outbreak than SARS, etc? IDK. It would be great (reassuring!) if someone who actually works in public health could comment here on that.

We are light years ahead of the response to SARS. Not even a close second. Someone else noted the symptoms don't show in people and THAT is the problem! They are contagious and not symptomatic...so they spread it everywhere not knowing any better.

[Pat Barry]

This morning, as per Coronavirus.Gov


"Combined with other reagents that CDC has procured, there are enough testing kits to test more than 75,000 people.
In addition, CDC has two laboratories conducting testing for the virus that causes COVID-19. CDC can test approximately 350 specimens per day."

Yesterday at the evening press conference the CDC persons said over a million tests available. Who knows what is right and who to believe these days.

[Robert Engel]

I am not a human epidemiologist, but I am in the medical field somewhat familiar with infectious diseases.

One aspect to understand about spread is subclinical (non symptomatic) infections. These are people (young children apparently rarely show symptoms) who become infected and do not get sick at all. If everyone got sick, they could be isolated. But subclinical people will never be isolated nor tested but they can shed the virus. With this in mind, what surprises me is the apparent lack of spread, which of course could change.

So fare 21 people out of 3500 on a cruise ship (19 crew, 2 passengers) tested positive. It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

Ultimately an epidemiological study based on antibodies (exposure) has to be done to determine the true mortality rate. IOW antibody testing will show if you have ever been infected, whereas the current test only shows the presence of the virus, which is NOT a determiner of illness. I have read the WHO estimate of 3.4% mortality will be shown to be severely overestimated when this is all over. It more likely to be as low as 0.1%.

IMO the media is more dangerous than the virus! IMO the public has been unnecessarily panicked. 17 deaths and the stock market crashes?

People need to listen to knowledgeable people like Dr. Ben Carson, who are trying to educate, not panic. Also quite sad to see it being made into a political issue by the media and other people who will stop at nothing to denigrate their opponent.

That said, there is no vaccine and there are categories of people at higher risk. If I were immunologically challenged, on chemo, over 70, or working in a child care facility, hospital, etc I would be concerned.

But the hysteria promulgated by the media and politicians will not help anyone.

[Edwin Santos]

For anyone with a low opinion of millennials, here is a bright spot -

A clever high school kid in Washington state put this site together which gives you Coronavirus stats at a glance. He did a pretty good job, and the sources for his data are cited in one of the tabs: https://ncov2019.live/data

Edwin

[Pat Barry]

I am not a human epidemiologist, but I am in the medical field somewhat familiar with infectious diseases.

One aspect to understand about spread is subclinical (non symptomatic) infections. These are people (young children apparently rarely show symptoms) who become infected and do not get sick at all. If everyone got sick, they could be isolated. But subclinical people will never be isolated nor tested but they can shed the virus. With this in mind, what surprises me is the apparent lack of spread, which of course could change.

So fare 21 people out of 3500 on a cruise ship (19 crew, 2 passengers) tested positive. It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

Ultimately an epidemiological study based on antibodies (exposure) has to be done to determine the true mortality rate. IOW antibody testing will show if you have ever been infected, whereas the current test only shows the presence of the virus, which is NOT a determiner of illness. I have read the WHO estimate of 3.4% mortality will be shown to be severely overestimated when this is all over. It more likely to be as low as 0.1%.

IMO the media is more dangerous than the virus! IMO the public has been unnecessarily panicked. 17 deaths and the stock market crashes?

People need to listen to knowledgeable people like Dr. Ben Carson, who are trying to educate, not panic. Also quite sad to see it being made into a political issue by the media and other people who will stop at nothing to denigrate their opponent.

That said, there is no vaccine and there are categories of people at higher risk. If I were immunologically challenged, on chemo, over 70, or working in a child care facility, hospital, etc I would be concerned.

But the hysteria promulgated by the media and politicians will not help anyone.

I dispute the presumptions that the media is more dangerous than the disease. Thats simply overstating things for dramatic purposes. The stock market isn't being swayed by the media, it is being swayed by the facts and data and extrapolations of the data itself. The media reports and conjectures about the market, not the other way around. The media didn't make Italy close its borders and quarantine the whole country, its own experience with the growth of the diseased population that convinced them to take action, just as China did previously at the initial epicenter.

[Mike Henderson]

For anyone with a low opinion of millennials, here is a bright spot -

A clever high school kid in Washington state put this site together which gives you Coronavirus stats at a glance. He did a pretty good job, and the sources for his data are cited in one of the tabs: https://ncov2019.live/data

Edwin

Good site. Thanks for posting. How did you find that site?

Mike