View Poll Results: Pick your current level of personal/family concern

Voters
90. You may not vote on this poll
  • I'm in my bunker, stocked with supplies

    1 1.11%
  • Yes, this sounds like it might get bad

    50 55.56%
  • Not at all worried

    32 35.56%
  • What, me worry?

    7 7.78%
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Results 121 to 135 of 316

Thread: Coronavirus _ worried?

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat Barry View Post
    WHO reporting that worldwide death rate from coronavirus is now 3.4%! Thats pretty huge considering they are also saying most cases are mild. This disparity probably demonstrates best that the actual information about the source and spread of this virus is sorely lacking. To get better information there needs to be lots more testing but that has lots of cost involved. In other words, let sleeping dogs lie.
    Hi Pat, probably the issue is with the denominator, not the numerator.

    While the number of deaths may be fairly accurate, I expect that the number of cases is grossly under-reported.

    The US has a very small sample of tests, with a fairly significant number of deaths. In Canada we've had a larger number of tests yet no deaths.

    More testing will help illuminate the issues........Rod.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat Barry View Post
    WHO reporting that worldwide death rate from coronavirus is now 3.4%! Thats pretty huge considering they are also saying most cases are mild. This disparity probably demonstrates best that the actual information about the source and spread of this virus is sorely lacking. To get better information there needs to be lots more testing but that has lots of cost involved. In other words, let sleeping dogs lie.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rod Sheridan View Post
    Hi Pat, probably the issue is with the denominator, not the numerator.

    While the number of deaths may be fairly accurate, I expect that the number of cases is grossly under-reported.

    The US has a very small sample of tests, with a fairly significant number of deaths. In Canada we've had a larger number of tests yet no deaths.

    More testing will help illuminate the issues........Rod.
    Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.

  3. #123
    Some people have pointed to the influenza of 1918 as a prototype of this pandemic. One question I have is how did the influenza of 1918 terminate? It seems to have just stopped for some reason. One theory is that it mutated to a less virulent form and stayed around but didn't kill people. But it stopped all over the world, which would require it to mutate to a less virulent form in many places almost simultaneously. There wasn't as much travel in those days but even if it mutated to a less virulent form in one place and was carried to other places, why did that less virulent form replace the more virulent form? Maybe the less virulent form provided immunity to the more virulent form.

    If so, perhaps this pandemic will go the same way.

    Mike
    Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat Barry View Post
    Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.
    Agreed, however isn't that what we want (except for the panic of course)........regards, Rod.

  5. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by Pat Barry View Post
    Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.
    More testing would definitely be helpful, but when I read the CDC website's info, it is obvious that so much about this virus is still unknown. Their website is full of statements like "it is thought that....might.....may be..... it is possible". This is with regard to critical questions like how the virus spreads, what are the symptoms, etc. I have heard that both at the early stages, and for some people in general, they can be infected and totally asymptomatic. In Japan where they have declared a state of emergency in Hokkaido, the regional health minister said the number of known infections in Hokkaido was (at that time) about 80, but number of asymptomatic infected people could be as high as 800. But then again it might not, but if it is, then you could see how the death rate % might be much much smaller than 3.4% due to a massively understated denominator as Rod says.

    So we're all on a bit of a ride with a lot of unknowns. On the pessimist's side, this means the virus may be much more spread than we know.
    On the optimist's side, the death rate may be much lower than thought, and for many people it may not be a particularly dangerous or lethal virus at all. Also in the optimist's camp are the reports that the cases in China are subsiding, and that people are being released from hospital, recovered.
    The death toll in China, while sad, is microscopic considering the population density. And if the numbers really are dropping, it shows that containment can work.

    When asked why he didn't actually show the shark until more than half way into the movie Jaws, Steven Spielberg replied that people are capable of scaring themselves more than he could ever scare them, so all he did was suggest the shark through music and other means, and then let human nature do the rest.

    Edwin

  6. #126
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    Jim, good for you. Some might think that you are just looking out for #1 and thatís true. But you are also subtracting yourself from a pool of a possible vectors.

  7. #127
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    Jan 2004
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    Lewiston, Idaho
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    We have a DIL who is a clinical pharmacist in a group of hospitals in the Central Valley of California. I just got home from visiting there for a week. The staff there have preparing for the possible spread of the this new version of the corona virus. That was the one point that she drove home to me multiple times when discussing this with her. There are multiple "versions" of this virus, some of which have been present in this country for years. It's just that this is the newest, relatively unknown version of the corona virus.

    She did point out it wasn't quite as dangerous as it is being talked about by the media, in general. As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.
    Ken

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken Fitzgerald View Post
    ...As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.
    The balance is always tricky between risk and caution. Keep your cool but take precatutions.

    A friend in Italy told me they decided today to close all schools until mid March. With the accelerating increase of both cases and deaths there this seems a reasonable precaution.

    virus_Italy_Mar3.jpg
    Cases in Italy, 3/3/20

    JKJ
    Last edited by John K Jordan; 03-04-2020 at 2:15 PM. Reason: added chart

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken Fitzgerald View Post
    ...She did point out it wasn't quite as dangerous as it is being talked about by the media, in general. As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.
    With all due respect to your DIL, I am in the age group where the death rate, depending on the source of your information, could be as high as 20%. Yes, this will blow over. No, we won't all die, but some of us will. I've taken a lot of risks in my life but didn't live this long by being stupid or naive. (At least not too often.) If I were 30 I might not worry. At 80, I don't panic but some level of concern is just common sense.

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by John K Jordan View Post
    The balance is always tricky between risk and caution. Keep your cool but take precatutions.

    A friend in Italy told me they decided today to close all schools until mid March. With the accelerating increase of both cases and deaths there this seems a reasonable precaution.

    virus_Italy_Mar3.jpg
    Cases in Italy, 3/3/20

    JKJ
    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Rutherford View Post
    With all due respect to your DIL, I am in the age group where the death rate, depending on the source of your information, could be as high as 20%. Yes, this will blow over. No, we won't all die, but some of us will. I've taken a lot of risks in my life but didn't live this long by being stupid or naive. (At least not too often.) If I were 30 I might not worry. At 80, I don't panic but some level of concern is just common sense.

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/
    Guys, at age 70, I am in the most affected age group too.

    I agree with the stated school closures to try to stop the accelerated spread of the disease. That is a common sense action to take. As someone who worked in hospitals for 34 years, I don't go in public when I have a cold, running a fever and are contagious. I have cancelled doctor's appointments because I didn't want to spread what I had. That's common sense and not over reacting.

    Yet, for everyone to run out and buy the entire world's supply on dust masks, toilet paper, food supplies, bottled water seems to be extreme to me. Some of the Costco shelves where they live in California were bare of personal/health items like hand sanitizers, etc. We arrived home at midnight Monday after being gone for 3 weeks. Yesterday my wife went shopping for basic groceries to restock the pantry and refrigerator. People were making such a run on the above items, Winco has restricted the number of such items each shopper can purchase as their suppliers can't keep up with the demand.

    Remember the people who bought plastics and wrapped their homes over the fears of a dirty bomb after 9/11?
    Last edited by Ken Fitzgerald; 03-04-2020 at 3:32 PM.
    Ken

  11. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Rutherford View Post
    With all due respect to your DIL, I am in the age group where the death rate, depending on the source of your information, could be as high as 20%. Yes, this will blow over. No, we won't all die, but some of us will. I've taken a lot of risks in my life but didn't live this long by being stupid or naive. (At least not too often.) If I were 30 I might not worry. At 80, I don't panic but some level of concern is just common sense.

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/
    Thank you for that link. That was very informative.

  12. #132
    Quote Originally Posted by Doug Dawson View Post
    Thank you for that link. That was very informative.
    Yes it is.

    I responded initially with bad info at the beginning of this thread. I am looking at the rates for people with Cardiovascular disease and thinking 10% is a big number. As a heart patient I will be hunkering down at home if it sweeps through my area. Until it does, life as usual I guess.

  13. #133
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    Aug 2010
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    Death rate in USA is 7% compared with 3.4% worldwide. Purely do to lack of testing to acknowledge the actual affected population. Downplay the problem?

    USA.
    159 cases
    11 deaths
    2 serious
    6 critical
    9 recovered

    Source bnonews.com
    Last edited by Pat Barry; 03-05-2020 at 7:47 AM.

  14. #134
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    Jan 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat Barry View Post
    Death rate in USA is 7% compared with 3.4% worldwide. Purely do to lack of testing to acknowledge the actual affected population. Downplay the problem?

    USA.
    159 cases
    11 deaths
    2 serious
    6 critical
    9 recovered

    Source bnonews.com
    people here may be less likely to go to the doctor or, we may be a somewhat healthier society than a place like china, esp. in a city like Seattle, so most cases will be mild, and the ones that do go see a doc are worse.

    very very few things are actual conspiracy.

  15. #135
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    Dec 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat Barry View Post
    Death rate in USA is 7% compared with 3.4% worldwide. Purely do to lack of testing to acknowledge the actual affected population. Downplay the problem?

    USA.
    159 cases
    11 deaths
    2 serious
    6 critical
    9 recovered

    Source bnonews.com
    Thanks for that, so far in Canada we have 34 cases, no fatalities yet.........Rod.

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