If you have strong chiselling and sawing skills, it does not matter. If you are lousy at chiselling and sawing (like a beginner), mortise first as you can saw and oversize the tenon, and use a hand router to finish the cheeks for a snug fit. You can use a chisel or shoulder plane instead of a router plane, if you have the know-how.
Those who cut tenons first and succeed given the same amount of time for the task have stronger skills or deeper experience (for that particular joint), period.
Simon