Ah hah! I figured it out. There was nothing actually wrong with my saw. The last time I released the tension I went a little too far and the nut that compresses the spring (see pict) got out of it's fixture and when I tightened it again it jammed on the bottom of the fixture instead of riding up into the fixture. This caused the upper wheel to go way out of line as I tightened the screw. Once I figured this out, I put on a new band and it tuned right up perfectly. No new tires, no new bearings, no other adjustments. Phew!
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