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Thread: Electric Cars - I'm Trying to be Open Minded

  1. #16
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    Peter, I followed the link and read the information there. I didn't see anything about GM phasing out internal combustion engines. They obviously want to go in that direction but the market will determine what they will build in 5 years. They have yet to manufacture even one vehicle that would be successful without government subsidies. In my estimation, it will take longer than 5 years for electric cars to evolve into machines that can compete on an even footing with internal combustion engines. You are looking at things from the perspective of someone who lives in a big city. Much of the country is radically different from what you see through your eyes.

  2. #17
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    I seriously doubt it will happen in the next 20 years or so until the battery technology or some other power source becomes available and economically feasible. Economics will drive it. In 1968 I wrote a college preparatory English paper on the upcoming oil shortage and the how shale oil production would relieve the some of the problem. Well, shale oil still isn't that profitable, they have found new oil reserves to produce and cars have acquired better MPG. The prediction in 1968 by the oil producers was that normal oil production as we know would not make it into the next century. It did. Economics will drive it.
    Ken

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art Mann View Post
    Peter, I followed the link and read the information there. I didn't see anything about GM phasing out internal combustion engines. They obviously want to go in that direction but the market will determine what they will build in 5 years. They have yet to manufacture even one vehicle that would be successful without government subsidies. In my estimation, it will take longer than 5 years for electric cars to evolve into machines that can compete on an even footing with internal combustion engines. You are looking at things from the perspective of someone who lives in a big city. Much of the country is radically different from what you see through your eyes.
    The less developed parts of the world have not got the infrastructure to run electric vehicles so there is going to have to be some sort of parallel support for internal combustion engine. Australia, Africa and Russia would be the big problems before you begin to think about isolated parts of other countries. For metro use I would have one tomorrow if the price was realistic, range anxiety is way over blown for anyone who lives in a metro area and I think it will be a non issue in a few years time.
    Chris

    Everything I like is either illegal, immoral or fattening

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken Fitzgerald View Post
    I seriously doubt it will happen in the next 20 years or so until the battery technology or some other power source becomes available and economically feasible. Economics will drive it. In 1968 I wrote a college preparatory English paper on the upcoming oil shortage and the how shale oil production would relieve the some of the problem. Well, shale oil still isn't that profitable, they have found new oil reserves to produce and cars have acquired better MPG. The prediction in 1968 by the oil producers was that normal oil production as we know would not make it into the next century. It did. Economics will drive it.
    it will happen well before 20 years, do some reading on what the Europeans and Chinese are doing and that will quickly translate to the US domestic market. The Europeans are now forecasting huge numbers, introducing infrastructure to support those numbers and cities are beginning to set dates for no IC motors and in some cases like Paris they have banned certain cars on certain days

    Paris already has car-free days, car-free zones and fines for drivers using cars more than 20 years old. On 1 October, the most recent car-free day, nitrogen dioxide levels dropped 25 per cent and noise levels dropped by an average of 20 per cent.

    Taken from here...https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8000596.html

    What has held back the earlier introduction of electric cars after Tesla kick started the whole thing is firstly the disbelief by the manufacturers that it was a good thing and then the R&D time to and the R&D has basically gotten to the point where the Europeans are ramping up production from this year on. Every European manufacturer has to get on board because legislation has forced them too. Their traditional markets have matured in take up and are beginning to drop off in total numbers and the market they do not want to be locked out of is China. The US manufacturers have also recognised this and are pedalling furiously to meet the deadlines set by China. All this is going to spin off to the rest of the world and if you want to make some money buy Lithium shares because the demand is going to be huge.
    Chris

    Everything I like is either illegal, immoral or fattening

  5. #20
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    You have to remember that France is smaller than Texas

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerome Stanek View Post
    You have to remember that France is smaller than Texas
    And Texas is smaller than Australia.
    Chris

    Everything I like is either illegal, immoral or fattening

  7. #22
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    About 80% of the electricity generated in the USA comes from non-renewable energy sources.. About 65% comes from burning fossil fuels. The net environmental benefit, to the planet, of driving an electric vehicle is about a wash. Long term, in the USA, we'll move more toward the use of natural gas.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Galey View Post
    About 80% of the electricity generated in the USA comes from non-renewable energy sources.. About 65% comes from burning fossil fuels. The net environmental benefit, to the planet, of driving an electric vehicle is about a wash. Long term, in the USA, we'll move more toward the use of natural gas.
    No you won't be, the US is not driving this change and the US manufacturers are in fact going with the flow because they do not want to be left behind, witness their efforts in China. Yes, the electric car is not for everyone but the changes that are coming are to control the exhaust emissions in major metropolitan cities, rural and long distance travel will be the last to change. The day of a national insular approach to car manufacturing is all over and it has turned to a world wide approach. You can see this effect by the way that the large inefficient V8 has lost ground to smaller more efficient motors, if the US manufacturers had their way that change would not have happened and you would still be driving 400 cubic inch monsters in everything. In Australia the same change has happened but here the V8 has entirely disappeared from the showrooms altogether apart from one sole model and they most probably sell about 100 of those in a year.

    http://fortune.com/2017/12/01/volksw...united-states/

    Automakers are also moving the production of parts to China for electric cars. Reliant on very large batteries from South Korea for its electric cars, G.M. is now moving to buy many of its batteries from Chinese suppliers, said Matthew Tsien, the executive vice president who oversees G.M.s extensive China operations. That helps the company qualify for Chinese electric car subsidies that require considerable domestic content.
    We do see China being, in the near and medium term at least, by far the largest market for electric vehicles in the world, Dan Ammann, G.M.s president, said in an interview in New York this week. But we believe ultimately that the whole world will go that direction.
    Taken from here https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/b...ars-china.html

    Chris

    Everything I like is either illegal, immoral or fattening

  9. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Art Mann View Post
    My big problem with electric vehicles is that the government has to pay people to buy them. I don't enjoy subsidizing car companies and car buyers with my tax dollars. Some day, the technology will be able to stand on its own but not today.
    Art, not to get political, but there are enormous governmental subsidies for the oil and gas industry, and they total MUCH more than the relatively small amount allocated to the EV program (which begins to phase out as more vehicles are sold)

  10. #25
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    And the US government bailed out the manufacturers for how much when things got bad?
    Chris

    Everything I like is either illegal, immoral or fattening

  11. #26
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    So far electric car racing is not catching on and until it does a significant source of development is missing. Racing drives innovation

  12. #27
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    I think every major European manufacturer is involved in Formula E. You guys have to stop drinking the kool aid and do some reading of what is happening in the rest of the world. If the president of GM says the world is going that way then the US will go that way along with the rest of us.
    Chris

    Everything I like is either illegal, immoral or fattening

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by roger wiegand View Post
    Apparently there are some Model S Tesla's (the expensive one) that have been employed as fleet vehicles for a number of years from now that are hitting the 500-600,000 mile mark and still going strong. The maintenance costs on them have been so low that they are ending up considerably cheaper in terms of lifetime cost of ownership than the $30-50K cars that were bought in parallel with them. Mechanically, electric cars are dramatically simpler to build and maintain. Not so meaningful perhaps for those of us who only drive 10,000 miles a year, but suddenly very interesting for a car-sharing or fleet use scenario where cars rack up 100K+ miles a year. Any decline in the price of batteries or increase in their performance will only make this difference bigger.

    A whole lot of my younger colleagues choose not to own a car at all, but rely on things like Zipcar to have a car when they need one (plus, of course Lyft and Uber). I suspect this may be yet another shake-up coming for the auto industry in the next decade or two, the economics may well drive a lot of people away from having personal automobiles and drive the owners of those vehicles towards electrics.

    With a range over 300 miles now there's not much cause for range anxiety for everyday driving. Oh, and they go like a bat out of you-know-where.
    I think that depends on where you live. I suspect electrics make a ton of sense in urban areas. For someone living in a one horse town in the Great Plains less so.

  14. #29
    The gas engine has a limited future at the rate we are burning the limited supply here on earth. Electric has some advantages and some disadvantages and many things to be worked out. If the hype about Mr. Tesla is true, he developed an unlimited range vehicle that ran on some kind of radiation from space. There are several reports of people developing motors that were powered by the earth's magnetic field. A town in Switzerland still uses a power system developed by Mr. Tesla to "harvest" static electricity from the wind on top the mountain.

    Has anyone ever searched for underground lines using two metal rods. I know it works, because I can do it and have taught others, many who were skeptical. There is a force which causes those metal rods to move. It isn't much, but it is a force that has a mechanical action. I don't find it hard to believe that someone can find a way to use that force. An acquaintance of mine goes for years without ever driving more than 10 miles a day, because of vision problems she never drives at night. For her an electric car would be perfect.

    We speak of range till the battery(ies) need to be recharged. If batteries were standardized, they could simply be replaced at a station, like pulling in the fill the gas tank, but they exchange batteries. turn in your drained battery for a charged one. I keep three batteries for my Dewalt power tools. Seems like a simple idea. No more range anxiety. Some engineering guy in India developed a car that runs on compressed air. A small engine runs constantly to compress air in the tank. It takes about 2 hours to fully charge the air tank to max safe pressure and 15 minutes to run it down. Not much range. But if I only travel 5 miles to work, and stay for 8 hours, what is the problem?

    Another part of the problem, is that here in the North, vehicle regulations are stacked so much against light weight commuter vehicles. Must have all wheel brakes, must have this, must have that. There is no reason why an electric scooter should not be permitted as a commuter vehicle in 25 MPH zones on city streets and bike paths. The former Coronor of Lancaster County PA, purchased an electric vehicle to commute the 2 miles to work. A Gemcar. When it came in, he could not get it licensed because it did not meet the minimum state requirements to be on the road.. yet Gem cars are legal road machines in several southern states.

    30 years ago, I had an employee that was a huge bicycle travel freak. He got a kit from somewhere to put solar panels on the bicycle to have a solar electric assist to powering the bicycle. In tidewater Virginia, where things are very flat, he claimed, that once up to speed, it would do 11 mph with no peddling after attaining that cruising speed. I tried the bike on a level shopping center parking lot and it was amazing. Peddle until moving and then just stop peddling and it was like coasting along indefinitely on level ground. He ended up with traffic citations for an unlicensed unregistered motor vehicle. There is no reason for such laws inside a city or town where traffic and parking savings could be significant.

    During the first big gasoline shortages of the 1970's there was a "out there" proposal to ship non perishable items across the country from west to east by a tethered blimp system. Each blimp would be tethered to an above ground mono rail and let the westerly wind blow the blimp across the country from west to east where the blimp could be un loaded and deflated for a return trip, provided by the pulling from all those blimps being blown eastward. The idea sounds both incredibly stupid and incredibly good at the same time. Imagine thousands of tons of freight moved 3,000 miles east with next to no energy. It isn't much different than the old clipper ships hauling freight across the oceans.

    Between range, battery cost, etc, electric and hybrid vehicles may not be as good as touted, but with sufficient research and development and testing, I think the day is definitely coming.

  15. #30
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    Duplicate post.
    Last edited by Art Mann; 04-01-2018 at 11:33 AM.

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