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Thread: Glowforge release

  1. #61
    Originally Posted by Kev Williams
    Whether this laser turns out to be an albatross or the best thing since sliced bread, I can only imagine the difficulty in trying to produce 10 or 15 THOUSAND of them when the original estimate was 500...


    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Harman View Post
    That's a good analogy for a typical Kickstarter campaign, but not for a venture capital funded company with many millions of dollars that is run by people with previous experience in development and production.
    A major part of my business is engraving for companies such as Glowforge, many just getting started, many that have been in business as long as I have. And I'm always the last in the chain, and I'm always asked to "PLEASE RUSH THIS JOB!" And it's always the same reasons: We've been waiting on [enter one to several other vendors here] to come thru, and now this job is [enter appropriate: days, weeks, months, years] behind! I was told once that I was holding up a space shuttle mission...

    Millions of dollars and lots of experience can buy lots of stuff, but it can't speed up the materials acquisition, engineering and manufacturing processes. The plastic supplier(s), the mold maker(s), the injection mold company(ies), laser tube mfr(s), aluminum extrusion supplier(s), camera supplier(s), stepper motor supplier(s), belt supplier(s), etc etc--- All of these suppliers and mfr's were likely issued RFQ's in quantities up to maybe 1000 pieces. Now every one of them is being asked to supply around 20x that amount. Any ONE of them having trouble meeting that demand is going to slow up the process. It's likely ALL of them are having trouble...
    ========================================
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  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by Bill George View Post
    So it seems that other than a Skype demo, no one has ever had a "hands on" unit for testing? Please correct me if I am wrong, this is from Jacob Johns post.
    So inside the box could be a standard off the shelf laser / engraver using standard control software but being made to appear being controlled by a non existing cloud software?
    Hey Bill: Glowforge had demos at the World Maker Faire in New York and at CES, which is one of the largest consumer electronic shows in the world (if you're not familiar) and was named an Engadget (Best of CES 2016 Finalist). You can Google SYFY and Inc. magazine, both which were able to stop by the booth and make a tchotchke for a little video. The only "hands on" testers are Glowforge and its beta volunteers, since it has not been released yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerome Stanek View Post
    When I started this thread I was just asking when Glowforge was going to ship and some people started giving excuses as why it is such a great system but not the ship date.
    Where do you see that?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lee DeRaud View Post
    In well-engineered products, that collision is handled a long way upstream from the beta-test stage. Just saying.
    Oh, I don't know. Apple is behind schedule on almost every product launch and seem to ship later than promised each time. So has Airbus, Amazon, Google, Samsung, and many more with tons of experience with the manufacturing process. Perhaps, they are not well-engineered — I don't know.

    Most crowd-funded projects that knock it out of the park and sell way more products than they expect, encounter delays.

    "Backers are signing up to participate in the development process, including all of its obstacles and setbacks. "If you want a watch, you can go buy a watch," Strickler says. "People turn to the analogs of consumer behavior, as if this is a Wal-Mart online store."

    http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/18/tech...er-ship-delay/

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Kev Williams View Post
    Originally Posted by Kev Williams
    Whether this laser turns out to be an albatross or the best thing since sliced bread, I can only imagine the difficulty in trying to produce 10 or 15 THOUSAND of them when the original estimate was 500...




    A major part of my business is engraving for companies such as Glowforge, many just getting started, many that have been in business as long as I have. And I'm always the last in the chain, and I'm always asked to "PLEASE RUSH THIS JOB!" And it's always the same reasons: We've been waiting on [enter one to several other vendors here] to come thru, and now this job is [enter appropriate: days, weeks, months, years] behind! I was told once that I was holding up a space shuttle mission...

    Millions of dollars and lots of experience can buy lots of stuff, but it can't speed up the materials acquisition, engineering and manufacturing processes. The plastic supplier(s), the mold maker(s), the injection mold company(ies), laser tube mfr(s), aluminum extrusion supplier(s), camera supplier(s), stepper motor supplier(s), belt supplier(s), etc etc--- All of these suppliers and mfr's were likely issued RFQ's in quantities up to maybe 1000 pieces. Now every one of them is being asked to supply around 20x that amount. Any ONE of them having trouble meeting that demand is going to slow up the process. It's likely ALL of them are having trouble...
    Brilliant post!

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matt McCoy View Post
    Oh, I don't know. Apple is behind schedule on almost every product launch and seem to ship later than promised each time. So has Airbus, Amazon, Google, Samsung, and many more with tons of experience with the manufacturing process. Perhaps, they are not well-engineered — I don't know.
    Yes, Apple/Samsung/et al experience schedule delays, but the delays are generally not due to highly-touted features not working at the entry to beta-test. Although I admit, it's unclear GF is even at the beta-test point yet. The hand-waving up-thread about "private beta test" is truly silly, in that there is already a commonly-used term for that: alpha test.
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    "Design"? Possibly. "Intelligent"? Sure doesn't look like it from this angle.
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  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jerome Stanek View Post
    When I started this thread I was just asking when Glowforge was going to ship and some people started giving excuses as why it is such a great system but not the ship date.
    What strikes me is that the tone seems to have shifted from claims that it's right on schedule to a litany of excuses for why it's late.
    Yoga class makes me feel like a total stud, mostly because I'm about as flexible as a 2x4.
    "Design"? Possibly. "Intelligent"? Sure doesn't look like it from this angle.
    We used to be hunter gatherers. Now we're shopper borrowers.
    The three most important words in the English language: "Front Towards Enemy".
    The world makes a lot more sense when you remember that Butthead was the smart one.
    You can never be too rich, too thin, or have too much ammo.

  6. #66
    Doesn't take long for life to imitate more life--

    I just posted up above not long ago today about the headaches with production...

    I just got off the phone with a customer, they build mining trucks. Two trucks have been delivered, half way across the country. Only they're missing some labels. Most important, they're missing their ID plates. Trucks MUST be operational first thing tomorrow morning, and they by law must have all the labels in place. My customer (the owner) must fly out tonight with the needed ID tags and missing labels and signage. The list of labels was supposed to be sent to me last Thursday. The buyer just noticed (even though I've emailed him and spoke to others several times) that he didn't send me the list. I just got it...

    It's about 4 hours of work-- good additional money, but I DID have other plans and other customer's work to do! So now I'm once again needing to work MY butt off to save someone elses!

    --- this is just one tiny example of a manufacturing process going into chaos for one small company. I can only imagine what Glowforge is going thru...
    ========================================
    ELEVEN - rotary cutter tool machines
    FOUR - CO2 lasers
    THREE- make that FOUR now - fiber lasers
    ONE - vinyl cutter
    CASmate, Corel, Gravostyle


  7. #67
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    Where has it been stated that the delays are due to problems with "highly touted features"? Where has it been stated that there have been delays at all? They've stated they're on schedule to deliver all pre-orders by the end of June, which was stated out front. They've stated there are no public beta units, but also that private beta units are in the wild. As someone who works in large product development I can state unequivocally that private beta testing is the norm, not the exception.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lee DeRaud View Post
    Yes, Apple/Samsung/et al experience schedule delays, but the delays are generally not due to highly-touted features not working at the entry to beta-test. Although I admit, it's unclear GF is even at the beta-test point yet. The hand-waving up-thread about "private beta test" is truly silly, in that there is already a commonly-used term for that: alpha test.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt McCoy View Post
    Hey Bill: Glowforge had demos at the World Maker Faire in New York and at CES, which is one of the largest consumer electronic shows in the world (if you're not familiar) and was named an Engadget (Best of CES 2016 Finalist). You can Google SYFY and Inc. magazine, both which were able to stop by the booth and make a tchotchke for a little video. The only "hands on" testers are Glowforge and its beta volunteers, since it has not been released yet.
    Just our of curiosity, did you read the reviews from NY and CES? I don't care what you buy or don't buy, but let's not paint a positive picture of how this machine has performed in public settings. https://www.reddit.com/r/glowforge/comments/3msemb/glowforge_maker_faire_review/

    My gut says they over promised and are struggling to deliver at the price point they've picked. They should make a machine that works, "price be damned" and then adjust the price significantly for general sale. If they get a really strong user base of happy customers, they'll sell units even if they are $1000-2000 more than originally projected.
    Last edited by Ross Moshinsky; 02-23-2016 at 7:16 PM.
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  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason Hilton View Post
    Where has it been stated that there have been delays at all?
    I hate to keep repeating myself, but the source of the "delay" is coming directly from the CEO....

    Screen Shot 2016-02-23 at 7.28.03 PM.jpgScreen Shot 2016-02-23 at 7.27.18 PM.png

    If the CEO has told these 2 tech sites that they have delayed the shipment of the machines promised in December, I tend to think it means that they have DELAYED the machines promised in December. No hidden meaning there, no bashing of anyone, just the CEO actually saying it's delayed, yet you keep posting that there have been no delays. I guess Dan S. is wrong?
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  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Ross Moshinsky View Post
    Just our of curiosity, did you read the reviews from NY and CES?
    Yes.

    I don't care what you buy or don't buy, but let's not paint a positive picture of how this machine has performed in public settings. https://www.reddit.com/r/glowforge/c..._faire_review/
    I'm a little hurt that you don't care. I think you might be misinterpreting my lack of negativity as "painting a positive picture". I think it's just more neutral and open-minded. Admittedly, I am generally an optimist, but my statement that you quoted above is all true.

    My gut says they over promised and are struggling to deliver at the price point they've picked. They should make a machine that works, "price be damned" and then adjust the price significantly for general sale. If they get a really strong user base of happy customers, they'll sell units even if they are $1000-2000 more than originally projected.
    I'm not going to speculate on the Beta delay, but selling these machines for thousands of dollars more takes them out of the market that they are after.

  11. #71
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    I see the "Crowdfund Insider" that Scott posted is still propagating the myth that this machine is in any way a 3-D device.

  12. #72
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    Matt said: I'm not going to speculate on the Beta delay, but selling these machines for thousands of dollars more takes them out of the market that they are after.

    Exactly, it will not end up being a consumer item like a toaster or microwave. They have a nice looking machine and the concept is great... but not at that price point or time frame.
    Retired Guy- Central Iowa.HVAC/R , Cloudray Galvo Fiber , -Windows 10

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by Bill George View Post
    Matt said: I'm not going to speculate on the Beta delay, but selling these machines for thousands of dollars more takes them out of the market that they are after.

    Exactly, it will not end up being a consumer item like a toaster or microwave. They have a nice looking machine and the concept is great... but not at that price point or time frame.
    Good morning Bill. The expression "good, fast, and cheap..." probably applies here too and sums up how difficult a challenge Glowforge faces. I read somewhere that Dan stated that they have (paraphrasing):

    Tens of millions of dollars.
    Tens of thousands of customers.
    Tens of employees and will need a recruiter.

    I think that is where the rubber hits the road.

  14. #74
    and everything they do to try and improve building machines faster and faster delivery will drive up the cost.


    Quote Originally Posted by Matt McCoy View Post
    Good morning Bill. The expression "good, fast, and cheap..." probably applies here too and sums up how difficult a challenge Glowforge faces. I read somewhere that Dan stated that they have (paraphrasing):

    Tens of millions of dollars.
    Tens of thousands of customers.
    Tens of employees and will need a recruiter.

    I think that is where the rubber hits the road.
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  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kev Williams View Post
    ... I can only imagine the difficulty in trying to produce 10 or 15 THOUSAND of them when the original estimate was 500...

    ....All of these suppliers and mfr's were likely issued RFQ's in quantities up to maybe 1000 pieces. Now every one of them is being asked to supply around 20x that amount.
    Didn't they get something like ten million dollars in venture capital? Hard to believe that they were able to raise that much money only expecting to produce a few hundred units.
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