Lumber prices

As we all know, lumber prices have skyrocketed. I'm continuing work on a workbench I started last year and just about have the poplar base assembly complete. When I planned this build, I was estimating 8/4 hard maple at a cost of about $5.50 bd/ft in my area, 2019. I see it's now over $8, which really breaks the budget. I considered beech, which is currently $7.25 for 8/4. Does anyone have any educated ideas on when prices might settle down a bit? I don't mind putting this project on hold, but am also very excited to get it done and finally have a proper bench. I've seen a couple threads on this already but didn't see much discussion on what the future may hold.

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Originally Posted by Dan McGonigle

As we all know, lumber prices have skyrocketed. I'm continuing work on a workbench I started last year and just about have the poplar base assembly complete. When I planned this build, I was estimating 8/4 hard maple at a cost of about $5.50 bd/ft in my area, 2019. I see it's now over $8, which really breaks the budget. I considered beech, which is currently $7.25 for 8/4. Does anyone have any educated ideas on when prices might settle down a bit? I don't mind putting this project on hold, but am also very excited to get it done and finally have a proper bench. I've seen a couple threads on this already but didn't see much discussion on what the future may hold.

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I am literally doing a quote now for a project and it was hurting my head so I came here to see what is up. Word is prices won’t be down any time soon, but if they do drop, it will be September or later, and it won’t drop as much as it went up. They are going to play the “raise prices a lot, then lower them a little” game with us. I’m preparing an order for enough to last me a while.

I just got home a few hours ago from one of my suppliers. I bought another 150 bf of poplar and got it at the price it has been for a month or so. The owner said he has a shipment due tomorrow and will have to raise his prices at least 50 cents a bf to cover new cost. They are also having trouble sourcing shippers for the wood. Shipping companies are scarce and the ones still on the road are getting premium prices. Seems there are still a lot of people milking the covid unemployment train. They make more sitting at home than they did working.
Around my home, the pine farmers are clear cutting timber like it's pure gold. Supply and demand for construction lumber is driving this. 2X's are going for over $8 here now with no end in sight. Where it ends I haven't a clue. I just can't imagine paying to have a house built at those prices. These young folks who are driving the construction boom are going to be upside down in their homes for a long time.

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Originally Posted by Steve Eure

These young folks who are driving the construction boom are going to be upside down in their homes for a long time.

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This is true, but the same was said in the 1980's. Then it was double digit interest rates.

This aligns with the new thread- "My Morning Horoscope". As long as they are not borrowing / building for spec, they should be fine over time.

But yeah, this is crazy, but so were 19% interest rates. Our parents told us all we were out of our minds.

I was at my local HD two days ago. 7/16" OSB was marked $53 a sheet. Sure glad I finished my new bedroom and garage a year ago, when it was $7-8.

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Does anyone have any educated ideas on when prices might settle down a bit? I don't mind putting this project on hold, but am also very excited to get it done and finally have a proper bench. I've seen a couple threads on this already but didn't see much discussion on what the future may hold.

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Originally Posted by Malcolm Schweizer

I am literally doing a quote now for a project and it was hurting my head so I came here to see what is up. Word is prices won’t be down any time soon, but if they do drop, it will be September or later, and it won’t drop as much as it went up. They are going to play the “raise prices a lot, then lower them a little” game with us. I’m preparing an order for enough to last me a while.

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Malcolm has a good point about the prices not comming down much if they come down at all.

A lot of work by a lot of different people goes into getting a piece of lumber from the forest to the lumber yard.

With people stuck at home, they are doing home projects.

It is supply and demand. The consumer demand is up. Closures or cut backs at the places where lumber is processed limits the supply. Demand up with supply down means prices go up.

If the infrastucture bill passes the demand will stay up. Even if the mills get back to full production there will be a high demand involved in the pricing.

jtk

I know the price of construction lumber is double+, I wonder if hardwood prices will double? That would make my hobby a lot more expensive in the long term, but short term I have plenty of wood in the stash.

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Originally Posted by Ron Citerone

I know the price of construction lumber is double+, I wonder if hardwood prices will double? That would make my hobby a lot more expensive in the long term, but short term I have plenty of wood in the stash.

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It will for sure for the same reasons. I’m about to order a few thousand board feet of mahogany, maple, and cedar. I will let you guys know how much it went up from my last order a few months ago.

A report I saw last night on the news was that lumber prices could be expected to normalize next summer. What will be normal?

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Originally Posted by Rick Potter

I was at my local HD two days ago. 7/16" OSB was marked $53 a sheet. Sure glad I finished my new bedroom and garage a year ago, when it was $7-8.

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Yikes! Must be regional - here, it's $34, or $31 in quantity. But still a far cry from what it was not too long ago.

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Originally Posted by Don Coffman

A report I saw last night on the news was that lumber prices could be expected to normalize next summer. What will be normal?

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“Normalize” could mean just level off. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think it is one of those terms that gets stretched here and there, and in my opinion is not always to be interpreted as “return to normal” which would more suggest things going back to the old prices as opposed to just leveling off.

If you haven't had a reason to notice, the price of all construction materials is going up, and is getting scarce. A friend who is a general contractor, mostly does concrete and asphalt work, tells me that in my area they are starting to 'ration' cement. Used to be he could order a truck 6 days a week. Now, he is limited to only four days a week. Plants are still working 6, but they are limiting how much they can order at a time. He has to schedule his pours more than he ever did in the past. He tells me part of the issue is the past winter was warm so construction didn't slow down at all, so the cement manufactures weren't able to stock pile the cement powder.

Some OSB is also in very short supply. The 9/16" stuff is out of stock in our area for a couple of weeks. I called to get a couple of doors ordered and was told that one of the local plants had shut down as they cannot get the materials to make interior doors. They don't know when they will reopen.

I read that part of the solution will be importing lumber out of Europe, but that may take some time to start running. And yes, hardwood prices have gone up in my area, perhaps 30% on walnut, which is the only thing I bought recently. Yet my cabinet door manufacturer has not increased their prices much as they still get a good deal due to their volume.

Listened to a article about lumber costs on NPR a couple of days ago. Said that lumber costs have quadrupled since just before the pandemic started. Cited miscalculations by most everyone from retailers to sawmills. Also that there has been tremendous pressure from the home remodeling sector due to our aging housing (average 45 years) and the too frequent natural disasters. Bottom line was that “normalcy” was not going to return anytime soon.

Thought I’d mention that the price of mahogany at my local dealer has not changed, if I recall correctly, in a few years. Seems like the domestics have gone up the most. Maybe just because they have the highest demand. The 8/4 maple I want is $8 and a 20-25 minute drive. I can get it for $5.50 for a 2.5 hour drive (each way). Not sure if that’s worth it. I always remind myself, I can make more money (hopefully), time doesn’t come back though.

The bad/good news is that the price of lumber has been nearly static over the last 40 years, falling way behind the inflation rate. (I'm guessing driven by the rise in imports from China) It won't surprise me at all if the industry uses this opportunity to "catch up". Here's a plot of commodity lumber since 1978:

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