The Market ...... Not food

[Tom Godley]

I saw real negativity today.

We have had plenty of panic - Today was different.

Wake me up in 18 months!


':-(

[Lee DeRaud]

I feel your pain.

That said, for a rather high percentage of people, economics is a political issue...and for most of the rest it's religious. Either way, a dangerous subject in this venue.

[Neal Clayton]

it's funny watching these things unfold (odd funny, not at someone else's expense funny).

i'm old enough now that there have been two of these in my lifetime, and they're exactly the same. in the 80s it was michael milken and corrupt savings and loans peddling junk debt to doctors and lawyers as a high return risk free investment. this time it's hedge funds doing the exact same thing.

there was a pretty good article here in our local paper with the current president/ceo of stephens investments, which is the largest investment house outside of wall street. he said his pop always told him that if you were on the hook for more than double your available cash and credit, you were playing with fire, don't be surprised when you get burned. and he said most other hedge funds these days were leveraged as much as 30 to 1.

the milken story was bad, but the damage in those cases was pretty much contained to said unfortunate doctors and lawyers. this time it's managed to bring down a major insurance company and the mortgage market with it.

what was that about history and being doomed to repeat it? ;)

[Ken Fitzgerald]

I'm still in......

I haven't sold one share........

I haven't lost anything because of the above.......

Greed and dishonesty.......Yup that will unsettle the market.

[Tom Godley]

No Politics :)

My dad opened an investment account for me when I was 15 in 1974 -- with Kidder Peabody (long absorbed) - I only mention that as a time frame.

I have been around it a while -- It was just a strange day ................


Just waiting for the weekend.

[Greg Peterson]

I've got twenty one years, ten months and 25 days until I can retire, assuming SS is still around.

I take a pretty aggressive investment stance and take the long view. Too many investors fail to look past the next quarterly reports.

Don't know if things will get better or worse, long term. Hope for the best, expect the worst. Pulling out anytime things look grim is not an ideal reaction.

[Matt Ocel]

it's funny watching these things unfold (odd funny, not at someone else's expense funny).

i'm old enough now that there have been two of these in my lifetime, and they're exactly the same. in the 80s it was michael milken and corrupt savings and loans peddling junk debt to doctors and lawyers as a high return risk free investment. this time it's hedge funds doing the exact same thing.

there was a pretty good article here in our local paper with the current president/ceo of stephens investments, which is the largest investment house outside of wall street. he said his pop always told him that if you were on the hook for more than double your available cash and credit, you were playing with fire, don't be surprised when you get burned. and he said most other hedge funds these days were leveraged as much as 30 to 1.

the milken story was bad, but the damage in those cases was pretty much contained to said unfortunate doctors and lawyers. this time it's managed to bring down a major insurance company and the mortgage market with it.

what was that about history and being doomed to repeat it? ;)


BINGO!
The only sad thing about that is I'm old enough to 100 % understand your statement.

[Tom Godley]

The week did not get any better!

[Butch Edwards]

it's funny watching these things unfold (odd funny, not at someone else's expense funny).

i'm old enough now that there have been two of these in my lifetime, and they're exactly the same. in the 80s it was michael milken and corrupt savings and loans peddling junk debt to doctors and lawyers as a high return risk free investment. this time it's hedge funds doing the exact same thing.

there was a pretty good article here in our local paper with the current president/ceo of stephens investments, which is the largest investment house outside of wall street. he said his pop always told him that if you were on the hook for more than double your available cash and credit, you were playing with fire, don't be surprised when you get burned. and he said most other hedge funds these days were leveraged as much as 30 to 1.

the milken story was bad, but the damage in those cases was pretty much contained to said unfortunate doctors and lawyers. this time it's managed to bring down a major insurance company and the mortgage market with it.

what was that about history and being doomed to repeat it? ;)

the BIG difference now, is we're waaaaay deeper in debt as a nation(and individually) making this a whole lot worse and potentially more disasterous. we're no longer a self-contained nation, nor are we self sufficient financially, which is very bad for monetary issues concerning Americans.

[Neal Clayton]

the BIG difference now, is we're waaaaay deeper in debt as a nation(and individually) making this a whole lot worse and potentially more disasterous. we're no longer a self-contained nation, nor are we self sufficient financially, which is very bad for monetary issues concerning Americans.

yeah and our sacred cows have never faltered, but they are this time.

no one trusts insurance after the AIG fallout. and no one trusts standard and poor's and moody's either. i see that there's a provision in the bailout for treasury to create a new asset insurance system and force the banks who need their help to participate in it. until that's established and working, i don't see this letting up.

[Arnold E Schnitzer]

America has had a 30 year debt orgy. The hangover is going to be tough. As George Soros said on Moyers last night, "It's the end of an era".

[Ben Rafael]

Everybody needs to know that the length of the average bear market is about 9 months. Most bears have actually been quite short. Long bears have lasted about 3 years, but that hasn't happened in over 50 years. Short ones have lasted only a few months.
This also all depends on whose definition of a bear market you use. Some people define a bear as a 10% drop in the DOW, which given the volatility we have today I dont find this a reasonable definition. I am using a 25% drop as a gauge.

[Cliff Rohrabacher]

I'm still in......

I haven't sold one share........


Ohhh Baby I did. My CB went from 46 to 60 in a matter of hours after AIG fell.

SOLD~!!!!!!

[Ken Fitzgerald]

Nothing like adding to the problem eh Cliff!


Encourage everyone to panic....sell at a loss.........


Folks,


The problems with the market are complex. Not nearly as simply "black and white" as some folks would have you believe.

I'd take any results you see posted on the internet....any advice about the market......I'd be somewhat skeptical....and research and analyze it for yourself.

I can make unsubstantiated statements claiming anything about how well I may have done in the market and you have no proof that I own or have ever owned one share. There are a lot of folks out there who can speak the language but really don't understand the culture or the market. It's like being able to speak a foreign language but not understanding the society or culture.

2ndly The internet is the biggest rumor mill in the entire world. When I was a child the rumor mills were limited to hair salons, barber shops, backyard fences and coffee cups in the local cafes. Today, the internet is the worlds' largest rumor mill that has an accuracy percentile that rates often in the single digits.

3rdly...In our society today and in businesses there are too many focused experts. They may be experts in a very specialized area but can't and don't see the BIG Picture....the overall effect or......they understand the theory but don't understand what happens when the theory is practically applied. Theory and practice often don't agree.

I'd advise you to believe little of what you read on the internet.....I'd even be skeptical of photos and videos you see on the internet.

The skammers have improved and modernized their techiques too. Snake oil is still just snake oil......but wait.......if you order in the next 15 minutes....

[Butch Edwards]

America has had a 30 year debt orgy. The hangover is going to be tough. As George Soros said on Moyers last night, "It's the end of an era".

yep ..and now it's payday..we danced, now the fiddler wants his money...;)

[Andy Cover]

I heard someone say today on TV that the stock market has lost trillions of $. That it had just disappeared into thin air.
What happened? Did dollar bills get burned, did property get lost?
It looks to me that the same number of dollar bills and the same cars, houses, and land that was on this earth 2 months ago are still here.
The stock that we own is still the same piece of paper that we owned before. It is just that people don't want to give us as much $ for that paper as they did before. The $ is still there.

Andy

[Butch Edwards]

I heard someone say today on TV that the stock market has lost trillions of $. That it had just disappeared into thin air.
What happened? Did dollar bills get burned, did property get lost?
It looks to me that the same number of dollar bills and the same cars, houses, and land that was on this earth 2 months ago are still here.
The stock that we own is still the same piece of paper that we owned before. It is just that people don't want to give us as much $ for that paper as they did before. The $ is still there.

Andy

yep..and it's color is red...which means we're still in the hole,as a nation..that hasn't gotten any better ;)

[Greg Peterson]

I heard someone say today on TV that the stock market has lost trillions of $. That it had just disappeared into thin air.
What happened? Did dollar bills get burned, did property get lost?

Mainly devalued stocks. The value of the market will return eventually.

Kind of like home prices declining. No real, printed money has been lost, only theoretical 'value'. So long as you aren't trying to sell your house or live off the returns on your stock market investments, you haven't lost money yet.

The real culprit seems to be the grease that lubricates the wheels of commerce; credit liquidity. Those that have cash (banks) are not lending it out as freely as they have been. IMO, they are over reacting. Eventually things will loosen up and most or many stocks will regain some or all of their value.

Hopefully the lending institutions will return to more conservative lending practices and investors will adapt a long term perspective on investments.

[David DeCristoforo]

Pretty strange for me too but for a completely different reason. Being the "starving artisan at 60", I don't own a house or have an investment portfolio. Nor do I have any debt. No credit cards either. So all of this is swirling around me and I'm not loosing a cent! I have exactly what I have always had... the ability to work and earn a living. My only concern is that the people who might have hired me or bought my work will be hurting. But, there is little I can do about that at this point. For now I have a good project so we are OK..... no different than it's ever been.

[Mike Cornelsen]

I've got a little cash put away that I was going to remodel a bathroom with (not much, it's only a 5x7 bath). But since everything is in the tank, I'm thinking about throwing that cash at the market while everything is cheap. Come next Spring, if the market has recovered, I may get a free bath remodel. If not, I can probably have resaved enough to go ahead anyway.
I jumped in the market after the tech bubble burst. I was very cautious and by 2004-2005, I was sorry I hadn't thrown everything I could into the market.
Some people see this as catastrophe, I see it as opportunity.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

I'm still in a buy mode. I hope to be able to retire next year. I'm already drawing a pension from one major company. I hope be in a position to retire and start drawing a pension from my current employer. The LOML could have retired a couple of years ago but stayed on to pay for my shop. She hopes to retire with a state pension and work part-time. I'll probably work someplace, maybe even for my current employer part-time, but I'll chose which battles and where I'll fight them.

My 401K is our "play money". I've supported myself since age 15 when I worked on oil rigs morning tower and went to school during the day. The play money.......Kenny Paul and Sharon are gonna go have some fun before it's too late.

[Butch Edwards]

I've got a little cash put away that I was going to remodel a bathroom with (not much, it's only a 5x7 bath). But since everything is in the tank, I'm thinking about throwing that cash at the market while everything is cheap. Come next Spring, if the market has recovered, I may get a free bath remodel. If not, I can probably have resaved enough to go ahead anyway.
I jumped in the market after the tech bubble burst. I was very cautious and by 2004-2005, I was sorry I hadn't thrown everything I could into the market.
Some people see this as catastrophe, I see it as opportunity.

the "experts" said this morning that this will NOT recover as quickly as that time period, and that the bottom is nowhere in sight... he suggested investing ONLY in mainstream comps like Nike/CocaCola/etc., because they don't depend upon credit... and be preparred to wait at least 5 years to see any return on investments...and if one had 5 grand to invest, to break it up into small pieces for investment...of course, these experts were the ones who led us down this road to begin wit....:rolleyes:

[Ben Rafael]

When it comes to the market it has been my experience that the "experts" are wrong more often than they are right.

[Clifford Mescher]

When it comes to the market it has been my experience that the "experts" are wrong more often than they are right.
That is good for you. Do the opposite and make money.:rolleyes:Clifford

[Ben Rafael]

I've seen newsletters that base their decisions(partly) on the opposite of the general consensus of market experts. I dont know what their track record is.
I usually add to my portfolio after large market drops. I dont care if the "experts" say the bottom is here or is coming soon, how do they know? Even if they said the bottom isn't here yet and it ends up being another 2%, waiting for that 2% is futile. Only pure luck would let you buy at the ultimate bottom and sell at the high

[Clifford Mescher]

That is why the rich get richer. Average people do not have the resources to buy when prices are low. Most people holding on for dear life, waiting for their stock to rise. Clifford

[Ben Rafael]

Yeah and no.
I see a lot of average people who play with their 401k plans, shifting between different asset classes as the market changes. Unfortunately, they seem to go the wrong way consistently, going into stocks when the market is up and into bonds when the market is low.
In general, the best thing you can do is sit on your hands, you may miss some opportunities, but you will also avoid selling at the wrong time.

[Tom Godley]

My original post was about a feeling -- something in the air -- Thursday the 2nd of October. It was a strange day.

When fear sets in people do strange things.

[Clifford Mescher]

Columbus Day. Stock up over 560 points. Still 3 1/2 hours till closing, though. Hope new feelings in the air. Clifford

[Lee DeRaud]

When it comes to the market it has been my experience that the "experts" are wrong more often than they are right.Maybe, maybe not. You're only getting the advice they're willing to give away, and when it comes to "free" market advice, 'buys' and 'holds' outnumber 'sells' by a huge margin.

What I've seen is that when the respected experts say to buy a stock, the stock usually goes up. But knowing when to sell that stock is just as important, and you almost never hear that same expert say, "Hey, you remember that stock I told you to buy two months ago? It went way up, right? Well, now is a good time to take your profit and get out of it."