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View Full Version : $7/gal gas predicted w/i 2 years.....



Butch Edwards
05-21-2008, 7:11 PM
..or $200/BBl for crude...either way, the American family is in for a very tough row to hoe.... those who are financed to the teeth will suffer most. I've tried to tell my kids to save,save,save..and I know it's tough when you're just starting out, but ya gotta start sometime. Drive a used car, instead of new... buy smaller house... cut back on entertainment spending... spend vacations @ home... BE THRIFTY WITH YO MONEY!!!

Peter Quadarella
05-21-2008, 8:13 PM
It will drive innovation for alternative fuel. With billions of dollars in potential earnings, companies will be going nuts trying to come up with the next gasoline. And at that cost, there will be plenty of people looking to jump ship on gas. Not that I think it's a good thing - it seems to me that the flow of oil is in too few hands, and they can almost set whatever price they want at this point.

mark page
05-21-2008, 8:27 PM
The consequences of the price of fuel is hitting harder in areas of the inner KC area. Besides the costs of fuel per gallon, people are getting hit with ice picks through their fuel tanks for fuel theft. Also a prediction that I make, and it's probably already happening in places, is going to be the theft of license plates to throw off the follow ups on fuel station "drive-aways".

Rob Russell
05-21-2008, 8:46 PM
...either way, the American family is in for a very tough row to hoe...

Butch,

I give you a LOT of credit for using the phrase properly. I've heard so many folks talk about "a tough road to hoe" that I gave up explaining where the phrase came from.

As someone who helped out on my grandfather's farm in CT (rocky New England soil), I truly understand the real meaning of "a tough row to hoe".

:D :D :D

Rob

Dennis Peacock
05-21-2008, 8:52 PM
Butch,

Stay with your kids on that buddy. I've been teaching my kids the very same thing as it's not going to get any cheaper to "survive" any more. Hang tough buddy....and yes....it IS "a tough row to hoe". :D

Mike Henderson
05-21-2008, 9:00 PM
It will drive innovation for alternative fuel. With billions of dollars in potential earnings, companies will be going nuts trying to come up with the next gasoline. And at that cost, there will be plenty of people looking to jump ship on gas. Not that I think it's a good thing - it seems to me that the flow of oil is in too few hands, and they can almost set whatever price they want at this point.
It will also drive fuel efficiency. Maybe plug in hybrids, maybe solutions we haven't even thought of yet. It may also drive people to live closer to cities and their work. But the transition will be painful.

Mike

Joe Mioux
05-21-2008, 9:44 PM
Plant a garden and learn to can.

Also, I have been buying E-85 for my 1999 Plymouth Voyager. I lose 4 milers per gallon, but Reg is now $3.96 and e85 is 3.10. The cost is still bad, but not as bad as reg.

joe

Jeffrey Makiel
05-21-2008, 9:52 PM
If we hit $7 per gallon in that short of a timeframe, I fear that our economy will take a devastating hit, and it won't matter if you use a bicycle to go to work, you will be squeezed.

Everything requires fuel for its creation, transportation or marketing. I am talking about the basic needs of life. Even if you live like a hermit, the taxation system will seek you out since all public services will cost a fortune.

There is no escape. Not in this short of a timeframe.

As a nation, we did not learn much from the 1970s gas crisis. Most folks today that are 40 years old and younger did not consciously experience this crisis. That's probably over half the population of our country today.

I remember the older folks many years ago as being non-materialistic. They always preached that one should saved for a rainy day. They also experienced the great depression. I bet that 95% of the folks today did not consciously experience the depression. This may explain our lack of a decent energy policy as well as our willingness to accept enormous national and personal debt.

I'm getting depressed....Jeff :o

C Scott McDonald
05-21-2008, 10:00 PM
High prices generally fix high prices.

Around here at least traffic is still bumper to bumper on weekends. Until depand drops the prices wont either.

It is interesting that Iran said they where going to cut back on production. Why? They can't find anybody to buy it. They are storing the oil in tankers off the iranian coast.

Something doesnt add up with this deal and it will fix itself soon.

This is the first in four weeks there has been a decline in inventories. But gasoline inventories are up.

There will be a melt down soon.

Andrew Derhammer
05-21-2008, 10:20 PM
Read this http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080521/ap_on_go_co/oil_congress
Personally IMHO the gov. should set a standard on what the price should be week to week depending on supply and demand not what these money hogging oil slobs decide on doing. The gov. should also put more money into making the machines to convert trash to light crude. We have the technology it's just not out there main stream.

Greg Peterson
05-22-2008, 12:51 AM
Suppose we let the oil companies drill in the Arctic reserve. And suppose further there is a substantial amount of oil.

What rule of free market enterprise would prevent the oil company from getting the current market price per barrel? At this time, $130 will buy you a barrel of crude oil. Why would the oil company sell a barrel for less than this amount? They won't sell it at a cut rate price out of patriotism. They're going to get as much per barrel as they can.

The whole 'drill our way out of it' is nothing less than opening up more oil fields for oil companies.

We need to rethink how we store and use energy. Petroleum is a portable, flexible, adaptable form of energy. But it's old technology.

$7/gallon? That'll actually be good for the long term. Which by the way is a perspective that has been ignored for quite awhile and we are now reaping the results of our failure to think beyond the next quarterly report. Going to be a lot of pain in the meanwhile. But $7/gallon gas will make a whole lot of energy options very competitive. And once people adapt they may find that there are advantages to breaking out of the oil based economy paradigm. For starters, imagine your suburban home, off grid.

Ken Fitzgerald
05-22-2008, 2:01 AM
Part of the problem with the oil and the stock market for that matter is today's communications and the speed at which folks can communicate and OVERREACT to an "urban" rumor....or an internet rumor.


Think about this. With the way the stock market can be accessed today, some idiot gets on CNBC or on a board like SMC and makes a statement that while based on some facts, is, mostly a subjective speculative point of view...it's extemely biased. Biased views are often far from being objective and therefore far from being correct. So we get some guy, who the television talking heads, introduces him as an "expert". Now, this guy based on his extremely biased point of view (which could as wrong as can be) makes a prediction and a lot of folks based on misinformation fed by this media promoted "expert" immediately start making stock market trades using their computers and a "rush" on the market happens and the market dips. It happens everyday. The talking heads are there to do two things..1. sell advertisement and 2. have trades happen. If they can cause people to trade stocks, the traders or the trading companies they work for , make money.

The same analogy works on the oil futures. Somebody comes along and predicts $7/ gallon gasoline and the oil is already $130 a barrel and people start buying the stuff at $130 because "it's going to go up and we are going to have $7.00/gallon gas."

Having rapid access to buy and sell stocks....Yeah it's good for the trading companies that handle the trades. But it's also bad.....very bad...it's what make today's stock market volitile......

The people who write books and tell of the future terrible depressions...maybe......But frankly, they make their money selling books. A dull book telling eveyone to put money in a savings account.....invest some money......and spend some money .....pay off your house mortgage..don't abuse credit....if 99.99% of the time you can't pay off that credit card at the end of the month...get rid of the card and pay off the balance....that's dull and won't sell books or make news. Instead they make their money by predicting doom and gloom. And the talking heads, they put the doom-and-gloom guy on because they want to hold that audience and sell more advertisements. Good news doesn't hold the audience. When is the last time on a national "news" channel, they spent more than 5 minutes in a week showing acts of "good news"....that Dennis Peacock and his family helped a neighbor recover from the effects of tornado in the rural area of Arkansas where they live. When did you see a national news story about a couple of woodworking websites memberships take up collections to help a professional woodworker whose shop roof was collapsed by an early winter storm...or that a major w/w manufacturer contributed a brand new tool to that unlucky individual. Look around you ....there are acts of kindness in each and every neighborhood in this country but very few of those stories get broadcast.

You want to say the previous generations were wiser? They might have been.

The remembered their kindergarden reading:


"The sky is falling.....the sky is falling!"

They also remember what happened to the little boy who always ran around yelling "Wolf!......Wolf!"

Steven Hardy
05-22-2008, 2:39 AM
High prices generally fix high prices.

Around here at least traffic is still bumper to bumper on weekends. Until depand drops the prices wont either.

It is interesting that Iran said they where going to cut back on production. Why? They can't find anybody to buy it. They are storing the oil in tankers off the iranian coast.

Something doesnt add up with this deal and it will fix itself soon.

This is the first in four weeks there has been a decline in inventories. But gasoline inventories are up.

There will be a melt down soon.

I agree. So many keep saying supply and demand.. some speculators are going to get buned hard....just like the Hunt brothers did with silver.

Some cool news:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-05-20-natural-gas_N.htm

Keith Outten
05-22-2008, 5:57 AM
Hydrogen Gas is the fuel of the future.

Demand that your representatives support the conversion of our Country to hydrogen.

Hydrogen gas can be produced in your back yard and power your home, business and automobiles in a unit the size of a heat pump with a solor panel. The Japanese have a hydrogen powered home that has been operating for three years, it is totally self sustaining and it produces the fuel for the home owners automobiles.

Zero pollution and an unlimited supply. If someone would design a small unit for your back yard there would be no taxes or fuel bills and all the free energy necessary to operate your home.

Big Oil and Big Government don't want you to use hydrogen fuel :)

.

Lance Norris
05-22-2008, 6:15 AM
If someone would design a small unit for your back yard there would be no taxes or fuel bills and all the free energy necessary to operate your home.

No taxes... right. I'll believe that when I see it.

Jeffrey Makiel
05-22-2008, 7:21 AM
Hydrogen Gas is the fuel of the future.

Perhaps, but it's a fairly distant future. Currently, bulk hydrogen is derived from petroleum product. There is also an electrolysis process but it is expensive, still requires energy input and the bulk capability is not there. But there sure is promise.

Another energy alternative that uses hydrogen is fusion power. It actually uses isotopes of hydrogen call deuterium and tritium which are smashed together at incredibly high heat to fuse into Helium. As a result, a thermal neutron is given off which is converted into heat energy.

Fusion research has been going on at our national laboratories for several decades in an effort to create a new generation of power plant. There is a huge international collaboration, in which the US is part of, to build a multi-billion dollar 'proof-of-principle' fusion research reactor in France. However, the overall federal budget for fusion energy research in the US has been declining in the past 10 years and it is projected to continue this trend for the near future.
-Jeff :)

Butch Edwards
05-22-2008, 7:38 AM
Part of the problem with the oil and the stock market for that matter is today's communications and the speed at which folks can communicate and OVERREACT to an "urban" rumor....or an internet rumor.


Think about this. With the way the stock market can be accessed today, some idiot gets on CNBC or on a board like SMC and makes a statement that while based on some facts, is, mostly a subjective speculative point of view...it's extemely biased. Biased views are often far from being objective and therefore far from being correct. So we get some guy, who the television talking heads, introduces him as an "expert". Now, this guy based on his extremely biased point of view (which could as wrong as can be) makes a prediction and a lot of folks based on misinformation fed by this media promoted "expert" immediately start making stock market trades using their computers and a "rush" on the market happens and the market dips. It happens everyday. The talking heads are there to do two things..1. sell advertisement and 2. have trades happen. If they can cause people to trade stocks, the traders or the trading companies they work for , make money.

The same analogy works on the oil futures. Somebody comes along and predicts $7/ gallon gasoline and the oil is already $130 a barrel and people start buying the stuff at $130 because "it's going to go up and we are going to have $7.00/gallon gas."

Having rapid access to buy and sell stocks....Yeah it's good for the trading companies that handle the trades. But it's also bad.....very bad...it's what make today's stock market volitile......

The people who write books and tell of the future terrible depressions...maybe......But frankly, they make their money selling books. A dull book telling eveyone to put money in a savings account.....invest some money......and spend some money .....pay off your house mortgage..don't abuse credit....if 99.99% of the time you can't pay off that credit card at the end of the month...get rid of the card and pay off the balance....that's dull and won't sell books or make news. Instead they make their money by predicting doom and gloom. And the talking heads, they put the doom-and-gloom guy on because they want to hold that audience and sell more advertisements. Good news doesn't hold the audience. When is the last time on a national "news" channel, they spent more than 5 minutes in a week showing acts of "good news"....that Dennis Peacock and his family helped a neighbor recover from the effects of tornado in the rural area of Arkansas where they live. When did you see a national news story about a couple of woodworking websites memberships take up collections to help a professional woodworker whose shop roof was collapsed by an early winter storm...or that a major w/w manufacturer contributed a brand new tool to that unlucky individual. Look around you ....there are acts of kindness in each and every neighborhood in this country but very few of those stories get broadcast.

You want to say the previous generations were wiser? They might have been.

The remembered their kindergarden reading:


"The sky is falling.....the sky is falling!"

They also remember what happened to the little boy who always ran around yelling "Wolf!......Wolf!"


the stock market is volitile, due to many factors...but I seriously doubt that crying wolf is one of them. as for the "experts", believe it or not, some are exactly that, and have been predicting this for years..they KNEW the sky was falling. I also heard 1 investor make the statement, that even retirement funds are buying up oil stocks, because as he put it.."if ya can't beat 'em,join 'em"..and they are doing just that...to the tune of nearly the same amount($$) that China is, buying oil. the CEOs of major oil companies are in front of congress yesterday and today, doing all they can to CONTINUE to pull the wool over the eyes of the elected. all their job is: turn a profit.period...and they will,anyway possible.
I agree that national news is built upon Bad news, and that's a statement of the condition of this society... we allow it to continue, by NOT turning it off...by maintaining silence...but that's another issue.

Rick Gooden
05-22-2008, 7:55 AM
I have been watching the fuel prices with great interest and reading a lot of opinions on different forums. First, the problem appears to be global, with demand from other countries certainly adding to the problem. China alone is adding something like 20,000 cars a month to the problem. I think the larger problem that we face is the fact that fuel drives our economy. Everything is moved by truck and in turn is beginning to really rise in price. Just go to the grocery store. Many people are beginning to evaluate their situation and changing some lifestyles. This includes not making purchases, stopping recreational shopping, eating out less, etc. Of course, when these things happen, people in those industries lose their jobs, unemployment goes up, taxes raise, etc. Maybe none of this will happen and I certainly hope that is the case. As for my wife and myself, we have no debt, we own our vehicles, and our home, and we live simply so we are not experiencing any hardship right now, but the same cannot be said for those on fixed income or with debt out of control. I am not trying to be alarmist, just stepping back to take a look at the big picture. I"m not sure how we stop this spiral, because I'm not that smart. Please chime in and tell me that none of this will happen and everything is going to be OK

Brian Weick
05-22-2008, 8:12 AM
Something is very wrong in my opinion, how can the oil companies be making record profits while the average consumer is spending $4.00 and up for a gallon of gas~ Something is up with this and I would love to be a fly on a wall in one of these private OPEC meetings. I am disgusted with what is happening and it is affecting every facet of the economy engine. I am glad to see that there are more and more hybrids coming out , this could really give the American auto companies an edge if they can keep the momentum going with alternative fuels or economy based engineering thought out in there production of transportation vehicles.
Brian

Keith Outten
05-22-2008, 8:59 AM
Jeffrey,

I'm talking about extracting hydrogen gas from water, which we have plenty of. The energy required to make the process work comes from a small solar panel mounted on top of an outdoor unit the size of a heat pump.

This isn't futuristic, the Japanese have a home that has been hydrogen powered for about three years. It is totally self-sufficient including making its own fuel for an automobile.

I expect that with a new carborator existing internal combustion engines could be converted to burning hydrogen, a similar conversion to burning propane. The DOT would have to approve a new tank, this would be the largest obstacle to overcome but I expect it would be a very small tank....probably a gallon or two of liquid hydrogen.

What we need is a couple of people from MIT to design a hydrogen generator and put the plans on the Net. I would be rushing to the hardware store to purchase the necessary parts right away. I would start by converting my lawn mower to burn hydrogen then the cars and them my home appliances.

You will never see this technology if you expect the Government to make it possible. It has to come from private industry because it will devastate the oil industry, public utilities and cause a severe loss in tax revenue for the Government. Our planet will be the big winner not to mention our pocketbooks.

:)

.

Brian Elfert
05-22-2008, 9:35 AM
If oil companies made zero profit the price of gas would be reduced by at most 35 cents a gallon. They only make about a 10% profit margin.

Oil company profits look obscene based on real dollars, but their revenues are also sky high and their profit margin isn't that high. Exxon Mobil had revenues in 2007 of almost $400 billion. Walmart had almost the same revenues as Exxon Mobil last year.

I work for a company that used to have profit margins of almost 25%, but nobody complained about our profits because total industry revenue across many companies is $15 to $20 billion.

Ed Kilburn
05-22-2008, 10:19 AM
Have you ever thought about how in efficient our cars are? I've been around engines for years, even rebuilt a few. But when I can across this video series, I got my eyes opened. Don't jump ahead the first few are important to understand why a piston engine is only 30% efficient. There are 10 videos in the series.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFifFR-4C28&feature=related

Ken Fitzgerald
05-22-2008, 11:11 AM
the stock market is volitile, due to many factors...but I seriously doubt that crying wolf is one of them. as for the "experts", believe it or not, some are exactly that, and have been predicting this for years..they KNEW the sky was falling. I also heard 1 investor make the statement, that even retirement funds are buying up oil stocks, because as he put it.."if ya can't beat 'em,join 'em"..and they are doing just that...to the tune of nearly the same amount($$) that China is, buying oil. the CEOs of major oil companies are in front of congress yesterday and today, doing all they can to CONTINUE to pull the wool over the eyes of the elected. all their job is: turn a profit.period...and they will,anyway possible.
I agree that national news is built upon Bad news, and that's a statement of the condition of this society... we allow it to continue, by NOT turning it off...by maintaining silence...but that's another issue.

Butch,

What I'm implying is that because people can trade stock so rapidly today, they can react or overreact to "news" and this adds to the volitility of the stock market and is in my opinion, a leading problem...not the only problem...but certainly a major factor in market volitility.

I wrote a term paper in 1967. My major source of information was from the major oil companies themselves. The theme of the paper "The Upcoming Oil Shortage" The oil companies were prediciting a shortage of oil then to occur in the late '80s. Since then the oil fields in the Persian Gulf area has been found delaying same.

I believe in the free market system and yet....explain to me why gasoline that was bought at $90 a barrel and produced into gasoline....should show an instantaneous increase in price today at the pump because oil is selling today for $135 a barrel? The gasoline in the pump didn't cost $135 a barrel in it's raw preproduction form. It's greed..... Using that philosophy, everybody should just increase their prices on everything willy-nilly, because we know from history inflation is going to happen.

I only hope science and engineering can come up with an affordable, efficient and environmentally friendly source of energy so the world population can continue to live comfortably. I don't look forward to using my new w/w shop as a stable and having to clean it out everyday or to bucking bales of hay as I did as a child.

Chris Friesen
05-22-2008, 11:56 AM
I believe in the free market system and yet....explain to me why gasoline that was bought at $90 a barrel and produced into gasoline....should show an instantaneous increase in price today at the pump because oil is selling today for $135 a barrel? The gasoline in the pump didn't cost $135 a barrel in it's raw preproduction form. It's greed.....

Because of cost-benefit analysis. When oil prices go up, some pump stations jack up the price right away. Other owners have a choice between upping the price immediately (and making more profit per gallon/liter) or else selling at their previous price, making less profit, and having to re-order at the higher supply price.

There really isn't much benefit to the station to keep their price at the lower rate when there is a price jump. On the other hand there may be a benefit to having prices that are consistently a few cents lower...the increased volume may offset the lower margins.

Back to the original discussion...$7/gal really isn't that bad. Up here in Canada we're already at the equivalent of $5/gallon, the UK is at $7.44/gal, and in Germany they're currently at almost $9/gal. Of course their average fuel economy is much higher than ours.

Rob Russell
05-22-2008, 12:41 PM
Back to the original discussion...$7/gal really isn't that bad. Up here in Canada we're already at the equivalent of $5/gallon, the UK is at $7.44/gal, and in Germany they're currently at almost $9/gal. Of course their average fuel economy is much higher than ours.

True, but those european countries also don't have the same emissions standards that we do in the USA.

Chris Padilla
05-22-2008, 12:59 PM
Jeffrey,

I'm talking about extracting hydrogen gas from water...

Funny, but the Hindenburg always comes to mind when folks talk about Hydrogen as a fuel! :)

Chris Padilla
05-22-2008, 1:06 PM
Oh, and on the note of oil skyrocketing and the dollar plummeting...look into Gold. I've seen predictions of $2000/oz. Crazy, but hey, life is that way lately....

Sean Troy
05-22-2008, 1:18 PM
..or $200/BBl for crude...either way, the American family is in for a very tough row to hoe.... those who are financed to the teeth will suffer most. I've tried to tell my kids to save,save,save..and I know it's tough when you're just starting out, but ya gotta start sometime. Drive a used car, instead of new... buy smaller house... cut back on entertainment spending... spend vacations @ home... BE THRIFTY WITH YO MONEY!!!
Americans shouldn't have to cut back. We need to drill and build refineries. We have more oil in this country than most of the middle east.

Chris Padilla
05-22-2008, 1:23 PM
Americans shouldn't have to cut back. We need to drill and build refineries. We have more oil in this country than most of the middle east.

Oh really? More oil than the M.E.? Care to cite this with some actual facts? Are you familiar with PEAK OIL? It isn't going to last forever! :)

Greg Funk
05-22-2008, 2:33 PM
Jeffrey,

I'm talking about extracting hydrogen gas from water, which we have plenty of. The energy required to make the process work comes from a small solar panel mounted on top of an outdoor unit the size of a heat pump.

This isn't futuristic, the Japanese have a home that has been hydrogen powered for about three years. It is totally self-sufficient including making its own fuel for an automobile.

I expect that with a new carborator existing internal combustion engines could be converted to burning hydrogen, a similar conversion to burning propane. The DOT would have to approve a new tank, this would be the largest obstacle to overcome but I expect it would be a very small tank....probably a gallon or two of liquid hydrogen.

What we need is a couple of people from MIT to design a hydrogen generator and put the plans on the Net. I would be rushing to the hardware store to purchase the necessary parts right away. I would start by converting my lawn mower to burn hydrogen then the cars and them my home appliances.

You will never see this technology if you expect the Government to make it possible. It has to come from private industry because it will devastate the oil industry, public utilities and cause a severe loss in tax revenue for the Government. Our planet will be the big winner not to mention our pocketbooks.

:)

.
Keith,

If you just want to power your home there is no advantage to generating Hydrogen. Just use solar panels to generate electricity. Many locations allow you to sell any excess power back to the utility.

Unfortunately, based on the current prices of electricity in most places in the US the economics for generating your own power from solar are not good.

Greg

Greg Funk
05-22-2008, 2:35 PM
Americans shouldn't have to cut back. We need to drill and build refineries. We have more oil in this country than most of the middle east.
You don't have to cut back. You just have to work harder to pay the higher prices for gas. Or drive a smaller car...

Greg Funk
05-22-2008, 2:42 PM
True, but those european countries also don't have the same emissions standards that we do in the USA.
The better fuel economy they have is because Europeans drive smaller cars with smaller engines and fewer SUVs and trucks.

Glenn Clabo
05-22-2008, 2:49 PM
Might want to check this out...
http://www.dieselnet.com/standards/

Rob Russell
05-22-2008, 3:08 PM
The better fuel economy they have is because Europeans drive smaller cars with smaller engines and fewer SUVs and trucks.

That is generally true, however the pollution levels from most of the european-spec engines are higher than the US models. One thing the pollution controls do is force the engine to run cleaner but at reduced horsepower levels. That's one reason the engines are smaller - they can get more horsepower out of a smaller engine because of the lack of emission controls.

I do agree that the average size of european cars is smaller than US cars.

Greg Funk
05-22-2008, 3:14 PM
That is generally true, however the pollution levels from most of the European-spec engines are higher than the US models. One thing the pollution controls do is force the engine to run cleaner but at reduced horsepower levels. That's one reason the engines are smaller - they can get more horsepower out of a smaller engine because of the lack of emission controls.

I do agree that the average size of european cars is smaller than US cars.
That used to be true but I think if you look at HP ratings for most new vehicles they are the same on both sides of the pond. I believe Europe has had cleaner (less sulfur) diesel available for some time which has allowed them to focus on more diesel models but they are starting to come over here as well.

Rob Russell
05-22-2008, 3:21 PM
Diesel is an interesting option, but the tax structure on diesel fuel is awful. I expect we'll see $5/gallon diesel this summer - it's already over $4.50/gallon here.

I really feel for the truckers - especially the independents - who are paying close to a $/mile for fuel.

Makes me happy to be riding a bicycle into work as many days as I can now.

Mike Henderson
05-22-2008, 3:24 PM
Jeffrey,

I'm talking about extracting hydrogen gas from water, which we have plenty of. The energy required to make the process work comes from a small solar panel mounted on top of an outdoor unit the size of a heat pump.

This isn't futuristic, the Japanese have a home that has been hydrogen powered for about three years. It is totally self-sufficient including making its own fuel for an automobile.

I expect that with a new carborator existing internal combustion engines could be converted to burning hydrogen, a similar conversion to burning propane. The DOT would have to approve a new tank, this would be the largest obstacle to overcome but I expect it would be a very small tank....probably a gallon or two of liquid hydrogen.

What we need is a couple of people from MIT to design a hydrogen generator and put the plans on the Net. I would be rushing to the hardware store to purchase the necessary parts right away. I would start by converting my lawn mower to burn hydrogen then the cars and them my home appliances.

You will never see this technology if you expect the Government to make it possible. It has to come from private industry because it will devastate the oil industry, public utilities and cause a severe loss in tax revenue for the Government. Our planet will be the big winner not to mention our pocketbooks.

:)

.
Greg Funk is correct - you'd do much better to just generate electricity to use in your home. Every time you make a conversion in the form of energy, you lose some of the energy.

And to make liquid hydrogen you would lose lots of energy. Hydrogen liquifies at about 20*K (or about -423*F). The energy required to convert hydrogen at room temperature to liquid hydrogen would be enormous. Then, you have to store the liquid hydrogen. You either have to continue to cool it (wasting energy) or you vent the gas that boils off (wasting energy). Liquid hydrogen takes a lot of space - From Wikipedia: "Four liters of liquid hydrogen are needed to match the same energy content of one liter of gasoline."

Additionally, hydrogen is quite dangerous. It burns without a visible flame so you could walk into a flame without seeing it. If it is stored pressurized, it must be under very high pressure to store any amount of it, and if it's liquified, any contact with the liquified hydrogen would cause serious injuries.

Finally, the amount of energy you would get would be determined by the size of your solar panels. Due to conservation of energy, the amount of hydrogen energy you could generate would depend upon how much electricity you could generate from your solar panels. A small solar panel does not generate much electricity - you'd have to cover your roof to get anywhere close to what's needed to run a residential home.

Mike

Joe Pelonio
05-22-2008, 3:50 PM
The better fuel economy they have is because Europeans drive smaller cars with smaller engines and fewer SUVs and trucks.
They are not nearly as dependent as we are on the car. Homes are closer to the cities, and they have reliable public transportation. For me to take the bus to the city of Bellevue, 10 miles away would take 1.5 hours and I would have one chance a day to catch it. It would only cost $1.75 but I would have to walk a mile at each end, making the total time closer to 2 hours each way.

Higher gas prices there do not cause the hardship that it does here.

In the USA there are 765 motor vehicles per 1,000 people, ranking #1 in the world.

In the United Kingdom it's 426/1,000, Ireland 359, and so on.

Greg Funk
05-22-2008, 4:01 PM
They are not nearly as dependent as we are on the car. Homes are closer to the cities, and they have reliable public transportation. For me to take the bus to the city of Bellevue, 10 miles away would take 1.5 hours and I would have one chance a day to catch it. It would only cost $1.75 but I would have to walk a mile at each end, making the total time closer to 2 hours each way.

Higher gas prices there do not cause the hardship that it does here.

In the USA there are 765 motor vehicles per 1,000 people, ranking #1 in the world.

In the United Kingdom it's 426/1,000, Ireland 359, and so on.
I agree with most of what you said above, however, they also drive much more fuel efficient vehicles. Much of NAs reliance on large vehicles was due to cheap gas. If gas prices remain high we will see smaller vehicles over here as well.

Significant changes in public transit usage will take much longer I suspect as they have a bigger impact on our standard of living. Personally, I'm not interested in living in an apartment downtown even though that would greatly reduce the amount of driving I do. I like my space.

Greg

Chris Padilla
05-22-2008, 4:15 PM
You don't have to cut back. You just have to work harder to pay the higher prices for gas. Or drive a smaller car...

I bike to work as much as I possibly can. Been averaging about 6000 miles per year for a couple years now. :)

Chris Padilla
05-22-2008, 4:18 PM
Every time you make a conversion in the form of energy, you lose some of the energy.

Mike

Mike, of course. Nothing is 100% efficient...no perpetual motion machines. The laws of thermodynamics apply across the board. I'm sure you are familiar with the "heat death" of the universe? :)

Rob Russell
05-22-2008, 4:29 PM
I bike to work as much as I possibly can. Been averaging about 6000 miles per year for a couple years now. :)

Yeah, well you don't have to deal with snow too often :(

Brian Elfert
05-22-2008, 4:33 PM
European pollution control agencies are focusing on greenhouse gas emissions these days. The UK is going to start basing registration taxes on the CO2 emissions of vehicles.

I've read that the European emissions standards are about as strict as ours, but they focus on different pollutants.

European countries starting taxing fuel at a high rate many years ago to discourage consumption mainly for environmental reasons and to pay for social programs like national healthcare.

Joe Pelonio
05-22-2008, 4:42 PM
I agree with most of what you said above, however, they also drive much more fuel efficient vehicles. Much of NAs reliance on large vehicles was due to cheap gas. If gas prices remain high we will see smaller vehicles over here as well.

Significant changes in public transit usage will take much longer I suspect as they have a bigger impact on our standard of living. Personally, I'm not interested in living in an apartment downtown even though that would greatly reduce the amount of driving I do. I like my space.

Greg
Good points, they do sell large SUVs and Minivans there too, even the V8 Landcruiser and Hummer are available in the UK, but a much smaller percentage, most people buy small.

Yes, introducing a good transit system now is like trying to
bail out a sinking ocean liner with a thimble.

Pete Simmons
05-22-2008, 4:52 PM
Solar


The Solar Constant is the amount of solar energy that has radiated from the Sun and is available in space at the Earth's distance from the Sun, before it gets into the Earth's atmosphere. That amount is 1,353 Watts/sq. meter or 429.7 Btu/sq. ft./hour, which is called the Solar Constant. This is the maximum available energy available from the sun on earth.

From here it only gets worse.

The atmosphere absorbs about 20% of that total and another almost 50% gets reflected back into space by clouds leaving us with about 130 BTU/sqft/hour or about 400 Watts/sq. meter and from here it gets worse again as all present methods of capture and storage of this energy are very low efficiency. Most are < 20% eff. and I am being very generous saying <20% most are much lower.

By The Way Gasoline contains 126,000 Btu/Gallon

So you can see that you would need many sq feet of solar collectors to capture the equalivant of 1 gallon of gas.

A big part of the problem is that at $4 or $10/gal it is a deal! Now we as a society need to learn how to live with that.

Craig Summers
05-22-2008, 5:00 PM
Perhaps, but it's a fairly distant future. Currently, bulk hydrogen is derived from petroleum product. There is also an electrolysis process but it is expensive, still requires energy input and the bulk capability is not there. But there sure is promise.

Another energy alternative that uses hydrogen is fusion power. It actually uses isotopes of hydrogen call deuterium and tritium which are smashed together at incredibly high heat to fuse into Helium. As a result, a thermal neutron is given off which is converted into heat energy.

Fusion research has been going on at our national laboratories for several decades in an effort to create a new generation of power plant. There is a huge international collaboration, in which the US is part of, to build a multi-billion dollar 'proof-of-principle' fusion research reactor in France. However, the overall federal budget for fusion energy research in the US has been declining in the past 10 years and it is projected to continue this trend for the near future.
-Jeff :)

The best fusion will require strip mining the Moon

Andrew Derhammer
05-22-2008, 5:30 PM
Oh really? More oil than the M.E.? Care to cite this with some actual facts? Are you familiar with PEAK OIL? It isn't going to last forever! :)Actually North America has a pretty substantial amount, more than half our oil comes from Canada.

Greg Funk
05-22-2008, 6:04 PM
Actually North America has a pretty substantial amount, more than half our oil comes from Canada.
Canada is the largest supplier of imported oil at 1.7Mbpd but the US consumes about 20Mbpd.

Greg

Butch Edwards
05-22-2008, 6:30 PM
Americans shouldn't have to cut back. We need to drill and build refineries. We have more oil in this country than most of the middle east.

I rememeber the gas lines of 73..even and odd tag numbers switched days allowed to get gas..(even Mondays,odd tues, and so on) we cut back, but the oil companies still made sure the price went up,up,up(along with OPEC). difference was,back then, the ave citizen wasn't nearly in debt as they are today...it was tight, but you never saw the amount of foreclosures/repossessions/bankruptcies as you do today. I'm like the gentleman who is in good shape, but that's not what worries me..it's the youth in general...including my kids, who want everything that's brought out on the market..especially in the digital phone/home entertainment markets...gotta have evry new gadget that comes out.... NOT. my wife and I just bought our 1st cell phones, and I went in kicking and screaming,too, i'll tell ya. money is to be saved, not spent, whenever possible..which means ..cutting back on things that are not life supporting, for the most part. I see TVs selling for over 2000 bucks... what a waste(IMHO)... same for $700 cell phones/mini-handheld PCs... not needed, WANTED. ya gotta know the difference.

Chris Padilla
05-22-2008, 7:01 PM
Yeah, well you don't have to deal with snow too often :(

Our snow comes pre-melted but I hear once every 10 years SF gets a 1/2"...unless they truck it in from the Sierras and do something crazy like make a ski run in downtown.... ;)

Chris Padilla
05-22-2008, 7:04 PM
I rememeber the gas lines of 73..even and odd tag numbers switched days allowed to get gas..(even Mondays,odd tues, and so on) we cut back, but the oil companies still made sure the price went up,up,up(along with OPEC). difference was,back then, the ave citizen wasn't nearly in debt as they are today...it was tight, but you never saw the amount of foreclosures/repossessions/bankruptcies as you do today. I'm like the gentleman who is in good shape, but that's not what worries me..it's the youth in general...including my kids, who want everything that's brought out on the market..especially in the digital phone/home entertainment markets...gotta have evry new gadget that comes out.... NOT. my wife and I just bought our 1st cell phones, and I went in kicking and screaming,too, i'll tell ya. money is to be saved, not spent, whenever possible..which means ..cutting back on things that are not life supporting, for the most part. I see TVs selling for over 2000 bucks... what a waste(IMHO)... same for $700 cell phones/mini-handheld PCs... not needed, WANTED. ya gotta know the difference.

Yep, Americans have become a nation of borrowers, not savers. We used to save to buy things, now we just borrow...on home equity most likely, that is plummeting daily.... If you bought a house around 2003ish, you are probably going to be upside down soon....

Joe Pelonio
05-22-2008, 8:15 PM
Some people are not too concerned yet, apparently. I just got back from a quick errand and passed our two local stations. Up another nickel since yesterday at $4.06 (76) and across the street $4.09 (Chevron).

There filling up was a club cab Silverado Pickup with a big ski boat in tow. And guess what, he was at the Shell.

Steven Hardy
05-22-2008, 8:21 PM
Butch,

What I'm implying is that because people can trade stock so rapidly today, they can react or overreact to "news" and this adds to the volitility of the stock market and is in my opinion, a leading problem...not the only problem...but certainly a major factor in market volitility.

I wrote a term paper in 1967. My major source of information was from the major oil companies themselves. The theme of the paper "The Upcoming Oil Shortage" The oil companies were prediciting a shortage of oil then to occur in the late '80s. Since then the oil fields in the Persian Gulf area has been found delaying same.

I believe in the free market system and yet....explain to me why gasoline that was bought at $90 a barrel and produced into gasoline....should show an instantaneous increase in price today at the pump because oil is selling today for $135 a barrel? The gasoline in the pump didn't cost $135 a barrel in it's raw preproduction form. It's greed..... Using that philosophy, everybody should just increase their prices on everything willy-nilly, because we know from history inflation is going to happen.

I only hope science and engineering can come up with an affordable, efficient and environmentally friendly source of energy so the world population can continue to live comfortably. I don't look forward to using my new w/w shop as a stable and having to clean it out everyday or to bucking bales of hay as I did as a child.

Science HAS come up with many alternatives. More than one country have already lessened their impact from the petroleum gouge.Brazil is already using flex fuel.Iceland has become extensively geothermal. The philippines also uses geothermal for electrical generation.

Your point is very valid......the new e-technology also makes "price setting" so much easier also. (I didnt say price fixing :)) It is bizarre how the the futures market announces a price....and stations immediately change price almost immediately.
Yes inflation does happen...but commodities also deflate...sometimes RAPIDLY. I wont make any predictions as predictions should only be done by the clairvoyants!!! ;)

Rob Russell
05-22-2008, 9:36 PM
Some people are not too concerned yet, apparently. I just got back from a quick errand and passed our two local stations. Up another nickel since yesterday at $3.06 (76) and across the street $3.09 (Chevron).

There filling up was a club cab Silverado Pickup with a big ski boat in tow. And guess what, he was at the Shell.

$3 and change a gallon? That's a full dollar cheaper than we're paying.

Joe Pelonio
05-22-2008, 9:37 PM
Geez, I am so used to $3 that I slipped up. I'll edit it to $4!

Greg Peterson
05-22-2008, 9:53 PM
Opening up lands for domestic drilling will only benefit the oil companies. It won't lower the cost of oil.

Greg Funk
05-22-2008, 9:54 PM
Interesting article in Business Week (http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_06/b4020055.htm) last Feb:

"Last July, when crude oil was surging toward $80 a barrel, the talk of a new reality in the energy markets hit a fever pitch. Some said China and India would so voraciously suck up supplies that we might never see $50 a barrel again. Others noted that the nations that make up OPEC had finally figured out how to put the screws to the West for good, emboldening Iran and Venezuela to send prices higher with a mere rattle of their sabers. The "multi-decade supertrend" mantra echoed through the canyons of Wall Street.

Then oil crashed, touching $50 in January, 35% off its peak. Since July, in fact, crude has underperformed the stock market by 48 percentage points. All this while China's oil-thirsty economy remains white-hot, Iran is barring nuclear inspectors, Venezuela is booting foreign oil investors, and Russia is putting the energy squeeze on neighbors.

So what happened? Call it a return to normalcy. The speculators and latecomers who bought into the new-paradigm argument suddenly turned tail--and traditional drivers of the oil market reemerged in force."

Joe Mioux
05-22-2008, 10:45 PM
What rule of free market enterprise would prevent the oil company from getting the current market price per barrel? At this time, $130 will buy you a barrel of crude oil. Why would the oil company sell a barrel for less than this amount? They won't sell it at a cut rate price out of patriotism. They're going to get as much per barrel as they can.

The whole 'drill our way out of it' is nothing less than opening up more oil fields for oil companies.


Oil is a commodity. No one company can set its own price.

some one else posted about the Hunt Bros.

They tried to corner the silver futures market. That is much different that this scenario

Joe

p.s I used to be a Commodities Futures Broker.

Sean Troy
05-22-2008, 11:11 PM
I rememeber the gas lines of 73..even and odd tag numbers switched days allowed to get gas..(even Mondays,odd tues, and so on) we cut back, but the oil companies still made sure the price went up,up,up(along with OPEC). difference was,back then, the ave citizen wasn't nearly in debt as they are today...it was tight, but you never saw the amount of foreclosures/repossessions/bankruptcies as you do today. I'm like the gentleman who is in good shape, but that's not what worries me..it's the youth in general...including my kids, who want everything that's brought out on the market..especially in the digital phone/home entertainment markets...gotta have evry new gadget that comes out.... NOT. my wife and I just bought our 1st cell phones, and I went in kicking and screaming,too, i'll tell ya. money is to be saved, not spent, whenever possible..which means ..cutting back on things that are not life supporting, for the most part. I see TVs selling for over 2000 bucks... what a waste(IMHO)... same for $700 cell phones/mini-handheld PCs... not needed, WANTED. ya gotta know the difference.
I agree. We should cut back on all these unnecessary things. It just makes sense now. We shouldn't have to though. This is not as hard a fix as we've been led to believe .

Jamie Cowan
05-22-2008, 11:24 PM
Butch,

I give you a LOT of credit for using the phrase properly. I've heard so many folks talk about "a tough road to hoe" that I gave up explaining where the phrase came from.

As someone who helped out on my grandfather's farm in CT (rocky New England soil), I truly understand the real meaning of "a tough row to hoe".

:D :D :D

Rob
I'll second that. Like when someone says, "I could care less...," when they really mean that they couldn't care less. Now, as far as gas prices go, I paid $2.30 a gallon yesterday. Yes, you read that correctly. My local supermarket gives out coupons for gas, and you can combine them. I had been saving them for a few weeks, and had enough of them to save a buck forty a gallon. Next week will not be as pleasant.

Jeffrey Makiel
05-23-2008, 7:09 AM
Everything in the US is big. Bigger is better.

- US homes are getting larger. Nobody wants a half cape house anymore...those are 'starter homes'.

- Vehicles are bigger. Those Ford Excursions and Hummers marked the apex of vehicular big.

- Even our children are bigger, and so is the epidemic of onset type II diabetes.

What's left? ...I know. Debt!...let's make our national and personal debt bigger!

Now we're in 'BIG' trouble.

-Jeff :)

Brian Elfert
05-23-2008, 8:32 AM
Everything in the US is big. Bigger is better.

- US homes are getting larger. Nobody wants a half cape house anymore...those are 'starter homes'.

- Vehicles are bigger. Those Ford Excursions and Hummers marked the apex of vehicular big.


Not everyone wants bigger. My house right now is 2,750 square feet. It was around 1,800 square feet before I finished off two bedrooms, two bathrooms, and the basement. Way too big for a single person.

I'm trying to sell the house so I can move to a smaller house. I have a plan for a new house that is only 1024 square feet plus basement. In today's market it makes more sense to buy a small foreclosure and fix it up instead of building new. I really want geothermal to reduce energy usage, but the upfront cost is too much.

I bought a small VW Golf TDI back in June 2003. I had looked in March 2003 for one, but gas had spiked to something like $1.60 and the cars were selling like hot cakes. By June gas prices were back to something like $1.40 and the dealer actually had one car coming in that was not sold. I bought that one.

The problem with my Golf TDI is that the MPG sucks recently and diesel prices are 70 cents more than gasoline these days. It only gets 32 to 35 MPG with a fair bit of city driving and used to get 38 to 40 MPG. I also have the automatic that cuts up to 10 MPG. I've considered getting a new small gas powered car since Golf TDIs are selling at a premium. I would save money on a monthly basis.

Chris Padilla
05-23-2008, 10:36 AM
- Even our children are bigger, and so is the epidemic of onset type II diabetes.

What's left? ...I know. Debt!...let's make our national and personal debt bigger!

Now we're in 'BIG' trouble.

-Jeff :)

I'm a bit smaller since downsizing to a Trek to commute to work! :D

Steven Hardy
05-23-2008, 12:01 PM
Actually North America has a pretty substantial amount, more than half our oil comes from Canada.

True...and the usa has the largest oil shale reserves in the world (kerogen...not listed as oil reserves ) Estimated 50-60 years supply.

Ken Fitzgerald
05-23-2008, 12:31 PM
True...and the usa has the largest oil shale reserves in the world (kerogen...not listed as oil reserves ) Estimated 50-60 years supply.

If they ever figure out how to efficiently produce. Of course, $7/gallon gas will make it more cost effective to produce it!

Walt Nicholson
05-23-2008, 1:17 PM
I just got back from a trip to Alaska and the folks up there are saying that Anchorage has two very large refineries working at max capacity to refine Alaskan oil and that 80 to 90 percent of it is shipped direct to Asia when it is done. Maybe if we stopped that and took care of ourselves things would be different. It made no sense to me (or them), just raised the blood pressure a few notches.

Dennis Peacock
05-23-2008, 2:47 PM
I just got back from a trip to Alaska and the folks up there are saying that Anchorage has two very large refineries working at max capacity to refine Alaskan oil and that 80 to 90 percent of it is shipped direct to Asia when it is done. Maybe if we stopped that and took care of ourselves things would be different. It made no sense to me (or them), just raised the blood pressure a few notches.

Walt,

I hear ya singing and I know the tune. :)

In other words...I know exactly what you are saying. :mad:

Greg Funk
05-23-2008, 3:04 PM
I just got back from a trip to Alaska and the folks up there are saying that Anchorage has two very large refineries working at max capacity to refine Alaskan oil and that 80 to 90 percent of it is shipped direct to Asia when it is done. Maybe if we stopped that and took care of ourselves things would be different. It made no sense to me (or them), just raised the blood pressure a few notches.
It doesn't make any difference where they ship the oil or gas as it is a fungible commodity. It just happens to be more efficient to ship that oil to Asia than to the US.

If they shipped the oil to the US rather than Asia it would have zero impact on the price of oil or gas at the pumps.

Canada exports most of the oil from Alberta south to the US and imports oil and gas for the east coast of Canada from Africa. It has nothing to do with national interests it just turns out that there is no efficient way of transporting oil across Canada.

Greg

Chris Padilla
05-23-2008, 3:07 PM
It doesn't make any difference where they ship the oil or gas as it is a fungible commodity. It just happens to be more efficient to ship that oil to Asia than to the US.

If they shipped the oil to the US rather than Asia it would have zero impact on the price of oil or gas at the pumps.

Canada exports most of the oil from Alberta south to the US and imports oil and gas for the east coast of Canada from Africa. It has nothing to do with national interests it just turns out that there is no efficient way of transporting oil across Canada.

Greg

They need The Great Canadian (to US) Pipeline! :D

Greg Funk
05-23-2008, 3:17 PM
They need The Great Canadian (to US) Pipeline! :D
It's coming, Alaska Governor Proposes $500 Million in Subsidies for a Gas Pipeline (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/23/us/23alaska.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin) but it's going to be expensive!

"The pipeline, which could supply as much as 7 percent of the current natural gas use of the United States, would extend from the North Slope, over the Brooks Range and into Alberta, Canada, where it would connect with pipelines that deliver gas to Canada and the United States. It would cost $30 billion to $60 billion, and it would not be completed until at least 2017 and potentially several years after that."

Greg

Cliff Rohrabacher
05-23-2008, 4:18 PM
I wanna try building a eeelektrik car.

Pete Simmons
05-23-2008, 4:34 PM
Cliff - Your electric car would only move the fuel use to some other location (Power Plant ) and every time you change the form of energy you loose a lot in the exchange.

Coal, gas, solar or nuke at the plant - sent to you (another loss) then converted by you into your car (another loss ) and you see it takes even more energy at some far away location to power your clean car.

Fact is Gas is 126,000 BTU/gal and it is very difficult to put that much energy in your car that is easily converted to rotary power at the wheels any other way.

I hate to say it but gas at $4.00 to $10.00/gal and maybe more is a great deal that is tough to beat with todays technology.

Many people have all kinds of better ways to power an auto it is to bad none of them seem to work.

Again I hate to be the naysayer to all these ideas and I welcome anyone to show me a better way that works.

Clifford Mescher
05-23-2008, 6:24 PM
Interesting topic. It is always supply and demand. If we dig and get our own supply of domestic oil, foreign oil cannot demand premium prices? Clifford

Brian Elfert
05-23-2008, 6:38 PM
Interesting topic. It is always supply and demand. If we dig and get our own supply of domestic oil, foreign oil cannot demand premium prices? Clifford

Unless the USA government nationalizes our oil the owners will just sell to the highest bidder. If you owned oil would you rather sell it to Americans for $75 a barrel or the Chinese for $100 a barrel?

Cliff Rohrabacher
05-23-2008, 7:17 PM
Cliff - Your electric car would only move the fuel use to some other location (Power Plant ) and every time you change the form of energy you loose a lot in the exchange.

Coal, gas, solar or nuke at the plant - sent to you (another loss) then converted by you into your car (another loss ) and you see it takes even more energy at some far away location to power your clean car.

And eliminate the inefficiencies on transferring all that energy by virtue of letting it flow along the wire. And electric is in the pennies per mile range.


Fact is Gas is 126,000 BTU/gal and it is very difficult to put that much energy in your car that is easily converted to rotary power at the wheels any other way.

The ICE is a terribly inefficient power plant. It consumes more than half of the power it produces in friction and reversing inertial forces.

A 40 - 50 HP DC electric motor will make a car perform about as well as all that smoking howling screaming ICE motor will. Most folks don't use more than a 20 HP motor.


I hate to say it but gas at $4.00 to $10.00/gal and maybe more is a great deal that is tough to beat with todays technology.

Yes I agree it's still cheap stuff.
I still wanna build a Eeelektrik car.

Cliff Rohrabacher
05-23-2008, 7:19 PM
Interesting topic. It is always supply and demand. If we dig and get our own supply of domestic oil, foreign oil cannot demand premium prices? Clifford

Oh there's plenty of oil in Montana and the Dakotas and Colorado shale. Way far more than Saudi Arabia ever had.

The problem is that an erg of energy is fungible. If some guy in East China is willing to pay $50.00 for it then you are in competition with him.

Greg Peterson
05-23-2008, 7:45 PM
Unless the USA government nationalizes our oil the owners will just sell to the highest bidder. If you owned oil would you rather sell it to Americans for $75 a barrel or the Chinese for $100 a barrel?

Anytime someone says we can drill our way out of this mess, I provide this very argument. It's telling that the oil companies for all their complaining about limited domestic drilling never bother to say who the would sell the oil to after they extract it.

I think many folks just assume domestically drilled oil would be used here. Not true by a long shot. Highest bidder.

Christopher Pine
05-23-2008, 9:18 PM
More supply would mean less price... I know we are talking about oil and that logic seems to have nothing to do with it. Just the logic of the individual with there opinion. If it is indeed a problem of supply then if we could increase our supply would we not reduce the price. I know I know then the other oil countries would reduce theirs and so this discussion is allways a lose lose lose proposition except of course for the oil companies ans teh stock holders, futures holders etc.
I few queston off the top of my head. How come whenever a commodities trader or futures trader chimes into this discussion they allways seem to say "I used to be one". Why is there no solution that would be an encouragement for us at this time... best positive that usually comes up is well such and such country is paying even more. Well that makes it all better now! ????
If these huge increases in price occur this is very scary! It is enough to wonder if the money we all supposedly were saving for retirement etc will nto be simply eaten up to try and drive to work and heat your home! SO when we get to retirement then what? This needs to be top priority for us as a country or even as a world to resolve this issue and if in my lifetime I get to see the b@$tard thieving middle eastern countries go under and have nothing! all the better! :eek:
Sorry just venting.:cool:

Daniel Berlin
05-23-2008, 9:26 PM
..or $200/BBl for crude...either way, the American family is in for a very tough row to hoe.... those who are financed to the teeth will suffer most. I've tried to tell my kids to save,save,save..and I know it's tough when you're just starting out, but ya gotta start sometime. Drive a used car, instead of new... buy smaller house... cut back on entertainment spending... spend vacations @ home... BE THRIFTY WITH YO MONEY!!!

I use my prius to carry lumber (It has a lot more room than people think, i fit a standard sized bathtub in the back with the seats folded down with absolutely no problem).
It still only costs me 40 bucks to fill it up and i get 400+ miles a tank.
My company subsidized my purchase of a hybrid to the tune of 5k.

Also, invest in energy mutual funds if you want to make back the cost of gas.
Contrary to big oil company claims, their profits do increase.

Take a look at RSNRX, FNARX, etc.

Clifford Mescher
05-23-2008, 10:03 PM
Supply and demand. Dig for our own oil. When the market is saturated, the prices will come down. Build new refineries. More gas made, prices fall?Clifford

Ken Fitzgerald
05-23-2008, 10:37 PM
Here's a few hitches in the giddyups mentioned so far:

1. Shale oil ....a tremendous reserve under the states of CO, WY, and UT. At last check no economical method had been devised to get it released from the shale. They tried numberous methods including superheated steam. OF course, $7.00/gallon gasoline make make it economically feasible to produce shale oil but there will be a dramatic time lag before it could happen.

2. More refineries......Yeah but just about everyone will stand up and say "Not in my backyard"..... Same with nuclear power.....

3. Even if there are undiscovered old fields here and we were to develop them.......... The oil companies are in the business of making money for their stockholders. They will sell to the highest bidder even overseas.

4. I'll guarrantee you that one cannot saturate the oil market. The folks in the business of selling oil have discovered that the world (Not just the US) will pay highly for their product. They will just hold back the production now, to keep the prices high. It's the law of supply and demand. Not as we learned it college but as it has become in today's market. We have the supply and we demand this price. Don't believe this....what is OPEC doing...they aren't increasing their supply to relieve the demand or reduce the prices.....

Joe Pelonio
05-23-2008, 11:13 PM
At this rate $7 won't take 2 years. Our local Shell is at $4.17 tonight for regular.

Christopher Pine
05-23-2008, 11:41 PM
Here's a few hitches in the giddyups mentioned so far:

1. Shale oil ....a tremendous reserve under the states of CO, WY, and UT. At last check no economical method had been devised to get it released from the shale. They tried numberous methods including superheated steam. OF course, $7.00/gallon gasoline make make it economically feasible to produce shale oil but there will be a dramatic time lag before it could happen.

2. More refineries......Yeah but just about everyone will stand up and say "Not in my backyard"..... Same with nuclear power.....

3. Even if there are undiscovered old fields here and we were to develop them.......... The oil companies are in the business of making money for their stockholders. They will sell to the highest bidder even overseas.

4. I'll guarrantee you that one cannot saturate the oil market. The folks in the business of selling oil have discovered that the world (Not just the US) will pay highly for their product. They will just hold back the production now, to keep the prices high. It's the law of supply and demand. Not as we learned it college but as it has become in today's market. We have the supply and we demand this price. Don't believe this....what is OPEC doing...they aren't increasing their supply to relieve the demand or reduce the prices.....

This is what I am talking about! WHAT DO WE DO!? Just take it?
Seems like we can get a man on the moon with a challenge from a president... why not solve this issue?

Greg Peterson
05-23-2008, 11:53 PM
Refinery capacity, or lack of, is not the result of any one issue.

1. Communities are able to effectively organize and prevent a refinery from being built and operated in their back yards.

2. Environmental laws increase the cost of such a project.

3. Bush called for a 20% reduction in gasoline use over the next ten years

4. A new refinery costs billions of dollars, and takes years to build.

Given these daunting attributes, it's not hard to imagine an oil executives reluctance to commit to building a new refinery. Even if they find a community that would welcome their plant, and they could absorb the additional costs of being environmentally sound, the government and the market place are moving towards a future where there is less dependence on gasoline.

Deciding to build a new refinery ten years ago when gas was a $1.25/ gallon would have required some testicular fortitude. It just would not have made sense.

Regardless, it isn't as if refinery capacity has remained static. According to Charlie Drevna, executive vice president at the national Petrochemical and Refiners Association, through expansion of existing refineries, the aggregate of additional gasoline being refined as a result of expansion projects is the equivalent of one new refinery a year.

Energy demand is a complex problem that will require complex answers. There are no simple reasons for how or why we find ourselves at this state. And there is no single answer or solution to the problems we now face. It took us a very long time to get to this juncture and it would be folly to assume there will be a quick turn around.

And ignoring it will not solve it. Better tighten our belts. It's going to get real bumpy.

Dennis Peacock
05-24-2008, 12:18 AM
Well good...at least I know now that it's not true and there's way too many people out there looking for an easy way to get more MPG without much effort. Now I can tell a fellow co-worker that he can put his money back in his pocket. :)

Rick Potter
05-24-2008, 4:20 AM
Filled up my diesel pickup today. It's interesting how gasoline price are fairly standard at all the stations, yet there is usually a big variance in diesel prices.

Today, I drove by a Mobile station advertising diesel at $5.35. Half a mile away I filled up at another Mobile station for $4.86...almost fifty cents a gal difference!

I also saved almost $.25 a gallon by using my Costco American Express card to buy it, which gives me 5% back at the end of the year. This means I may have saved almost $.75 per gal over a customer at the first station mentioned.

Yes, I know I could get great mileage with a little car, but I do use the pickup quite a bit. Besides, it gets better mileage than my Jeep Wrangler.

I have always figured that if diesel was within 20-25% of gas prices I am ahead of the game, since my diesel truck gets at least that much better fuel mileage than my last gas powered truck (not even considering it can tow anything I will ever own).....but I have to admit that I need to keep reminding myself of that at every fill up since there is a buck a gallon difference now. Three years ago, diesel was cheaper.

Years ago, as a young family taking trips with our travel trailer, I would get off the highway and drive all the way through small towns to save $.03 per gallon. Gas was under $.30, and that was a 9-10% savings. Today, I might not go down the street to save that $.03 (and with gasoline that is STILL all the difference in most places). Now that is less than 1%. As mentioned above there still is quite a variation in diesel, but not gas. Wish I knew why.

Rick Potter

Butch Edwards
05-24-2008, 11:15 AM
Here's a few hitches in the giddyups mentioned so far:

1. Shale oil ....a tremendous reserve under the states of CO, WY, and UT. At last check no economical method had been devised to get it released from the shale. They tried numberous methods including superheated steam. OF course, $7.00/gallon gasoline make make it economically feasible to produce shale oil but there will be a dramatic time lag before it could happen.

2. More refineries......Yeah but just about everyone will stand up and say "Not in my backyard"..... Same with nuclear power.....

3. Even if there are undiscovered old fields here and we were to develop them.......... The oil companies are in the business of making money for their stockholders. They will sell to the highest bidder even overseas.

4. I'll guarrantee you that one cannot saturate the oil market. The folks in the business of selling oil have discovered that the world (Not just the US) will pay highly for their product. They will just hold back the production now, to keep the prices high. It's the law of supply and demand. Not as we learned it college but as it has become in today's market. We have the supply and we demand this price. Don't believe this....what is OPEC doing...they aren't increasing their supply to relieve the demand or reduce the prices.....


all excellent points, especially the last one...;)

Ken Fitzgerald
05-24-2008, 11:43 AM
Butch...Understand ...that is not a political statement. That is a statement of business fact. Oil companies in this country don't seem to be reducing their price to help stabilize the American economy...they are showing record profits. Who was it Haliburton, a major US oil well service company, just moved their headquarters for operations from the Houston area to some place over in the Middle East to be closer to their main clientele.

I come from the oilfield. My father died of a heart attack on the floor of an oil rig in 1972. I got drug out of bed at age 14 by my Dad to work for him when a worker showed up drunk and he had to make a trip (pull all the pipe and put on a new bit and go back to bottom to drill). At age 15 I was working full time for Dad Morning Tower (11-7) and going to HS days. I finished HS this way and so did my younger brother. One of the reasons I wrote a term paper in '67 about the coming oil shortage and the shale oil resource was because of my then involvement in the drilling for oil.

The problem is more the current society and business culture in this country and less about international politics. Companies today are worried about short term goals and objectives and appeasing Wall Street projections with little thought about the long term effects of short term decisions.

Easily produced oil as we know it has a limited supply. It is not going to last forever and the leaders of the world and the business community had better be taking it seriously. Can shale oil be produced yes....but not as cheaply as our present and past oil production......Can alternatives energy methods be developed to power our autos etc. Yes but there is going to be a time lag.......and.... People are going to have to give a little ....some of the "special" interests are going to have to be willing to give a little for good of society and the world as we know it.

Anything can be solved....it's just a matter of time and money.

And that's just the 2 cents worth from a guy in Idaho...going to the shop to work on some shop cabinets....and maybe play with his great granddaughter if she and great-grandma are awake yet. They stayed up late playing last night.

Greg Funk
05-24-2008, 1:33 PM
For an interesting perspective here are the overall and annual cost of gas increases in the US and the UK since Jan/2001 in local currency

US 150% (13.2% per annum)

UK 39% (4.5% per annum)

So in the UK and Europe gas has increased slightly faster than inflation but it doesn't likely have a significant effect on their overall cost of living.

Cliff Rohrabacher
05-24-2008, 2:31 PM
I use my prius to [...] i fit a standard sized bathtub in the back with the seats folded down with absolutely no problem).

There is something disturbingly wrong with how that image plays out.
What kind of soap do you use while bathing in your prius?

Ken Fitzgerald
05-24-2008, 2:35 PM
For an interesting perspective here are the overall and annual cost of gas increases in the US and the UK since Jan/2001 in local currency

US 150% (13.2% per annum)

UK 39% (4.5% per annum)

So in the UK and Europe gas has increased slightly faster than inflation but it doesn't likely have a significant effect on their overall cost of living.


Greg...but they have had consideralbly higher gas prices in Europe for decades.

Daniel Berlin
05-24-2008, 5:11 PM
There is something disturbingly wrong with how that image plays out.
What kind of soap do you use while bathing in your prius?

Wouldn't you like to know ;););)

Greg Funk
05-24-2008, 5:17 PM
Greg...but they have had consideralbly higher gas prices in Europe for decades.
True enough but for much of the world the impact of higher oil prices isn't significant so they are unlikely to alter their behaviour and lower consumption. If overall demand for oil doesn't diminish then oil prices will likely stay high.

Dennis Peacock
05-24-2008, 6:26 PM
I honestly don't believe that fuel prices will ever go back down. We allow "big brother" to look after us instead of "for the people, by the people". nuff said. ;)

Butch Edwards
05-24-2008, 8:58 PM
Butch...Understand ...that is not a political statement. That is a statement of business fact. Oil companies in this country don't seem to be reducing their price to help stabilize the American economy...they are showing record profits. Who was it Haliburton, a major US oil well service company, just moved their headquarters for operations from the Houston area to some place over in the Middle East to be closer to their main clientele.

I come from the oilfield. My father died of a heart attack on the floor of an oil rig in 1972. I got drug out of bed at age 14 by my Dad to work for him when a worker showed up drunk and he had to make a trip (pull all the pipe and put on a new bit and go back to bottom to drill). At age 15 I was working full time for Dad Morning Tower (11-7) and going to HS days. I finished HS this way and so did my younger brother. One of the reasons I wrote a term paper in '67 about the coming oil shortage and the shale oil resource was because of my then involvement in the drilling for oil.

The problem is more the current society and business culture in this country and less about international politics. Companies today are worried about short term goals and objectives and appeasing Wall Street projections with little thought about the long term effects of short term decisions.

Easily produced oil as we know it has a limited supply. It is not going to last forever and the leaders of the world and the business community had better be taking it seriously. Can shale oil be produced yes....but not as cheaply as our present and past oil production......Can alternatives energy methods be developed to power our autos etc. Yes but there is going to be a time lag.......and.... People are going to have to give a little ....some of the "special" interests are going to have to be willing to give a little for good of society and the world as we know it.

Anything can be solved....it's just a matter of time and money.

And that's just the 2 cents worth from a guy in Idaho...going to the shop to work on some shop cabinets....and maybe play with his great granddaughter if she and great-grandma are awake yet. They stayed up late playing last night.

I do understand,Ken... you're right about the main reason we're in this mess, however, I can't believe that after 60 years, we were so hooked like a heroin addict, that we couldn't find an alternative fuel. we knew that the Mid-East oil nations had us, regardless of how much reserves we had access to. I personally believe that capitolism can be a destructive way to run a nation,when allowed to operate w/o oversight.... there has to be limits as to stopping the amount of profits,when they are upsetting the good of the common man. I also think that there'll come a time, when the other developing nations can no longer afford to play keep-up on the oil prices. this has become a global economy, one which we should have backed away from....we cannot come out ahead in that market.we don't produce enough in the way of goods, nor have enough sustaining wealth get back into the black.

Matt Ocel
05-24-2008, 9:39 PM
I'm gonna buy 6' of garden hose and a gas can.


Then send my wife out at night on the ten speed.:D

Ben Rafael
05-24-2008, 10:33 PM
A large part of oil prices going up is the weak dollar and a huge rally/bubble in the futures market. I dont know how much higher it will go, but eventually the dollar should strengthen and the futures market should come back to earth. Hopefully this happens sooner than later, but I doubt it will happen sooner than a year from now.

Ken Fitzgerald
05-24-2008, 11:58 PM
Ben,

I agree...the oil futures market could be part of the problem.

Help me out here. Though I'm invested up to my eyeballs in the stock market I'm somewhat ignorant. What is to stop somebody who owns oil wells from investing in the futures market....then despite increasing demand for oil, hold the supply constant. The price of oil goes up on the market due to bidding. They make money off the oil and from the futures they own. Is this possible?

Ted Jay
05-25-2008, 12:15 AM
Filled up my diesel pickup today. It's interesting how gasoline price are fairly standard at all the stations, yet there is usually a big variance in diesel prices.

Today, I drove by a Mobile station advertising diesel at $5.35. Half a mile away I filled up at another Mobile station for $4.86...almost fifty cents a gal difference!

I also saved almost $.25 a gallon by using my Costco American Express card to buy it, which gives me 5% back at the end of the year. This means I may have saved almost $.75 per gal over a customer at the first station mentioned.

Yes, I know I could get great mileage with a little car, but I do use the pickup quite a bit. Besides, it gets better mileage than my Jeep Wrangler.

I have always figured that if diesel was within 20-25% of gas prices I am ahead of the game, since my diesel truck gets at least that much better fuel mileage than my last gas powered truck (not even considering it can tow anything I will ever own).....but I have to admit that I need to keep reminding myself of that at every fill up since there is a buck a gallon difference now. Three years ago, diesel was cheaper.

Years ago, as a young family taking trips with our travel trailer, I would get off the highway and drive all the way through small towns to save $.03 per gallon. Gas was under $.30, and that was a 9-10% savings. Today, I might not go down the street to save that $.03 (and with gasoline that is STILL all the difference in most places). Now that is less than 1%. As mentioned above there still is quite a variation in diesel, but not gas. Wish I knew why.

Rick Potter

Rick, I know what you mean. I just filled the truck up, with diesel at $4.59 to the tune of $137. I drive 108 miles round trip to work 5 days a week. The truck is getting about 19 to 21 miles to the gallon. Might have to start riding the motorcycle to work on those half day Fridays or work the whole day for some OT.

On another note, here is an interesting web site pertaining to hydrogen...
http://gethydropower.com/

Later,
Ted

Greg Funk
05-25-2008, 1:56 AM
Ben,

I agree...the oil futures market could be part of the problem.

Help me out here. Though I'm invested up to my eyeballs in the stock market I'm somewhat ignorant. What is to stop somebody who owns oil wells from investing in the futures market....then despite increasing demand for oil, hold the supply constant. The price of oil goes up on the market due to bidding. They make money off the oil and from the futures they own. Is this possible?
It works as long as demand remains high which it typically doesn't as prices rise. Once demand falls the value of the futures drops. Someone who owns wells doesn't really need to buy futures as it would just increase their risk. If anything they are often selling/hedging to minimize their risk in the event prices drop.

Dewey Torres
05-25-2008, 2:49 AM
Maybe by then they will have figured out that the $75 cut off needs to be increased!:mad:

See my thread:

http://www.sawmillcreek.org/showthread.php?t=85000

Dewey

Ben Rafael
05-25-2008, 11:02 AM
Ben,

I agree...the oil futures market could be part of the problem.

Help me out here. Though I'm invested up to my eyeballs in the stock market I'm somewhat ignorant. What is to stop somebody who owns oil wells from investing in the futures market....then despite increasing demand for oil, hold the supply constant. The price of oil goes up on the market due to bidding. They make money off the oil and from the futures they own. Is this possible?

Companies/people who own oil wells frequently trade futures as an insurance against oil prices dropping.
Now, for what you said, unless you control enough oil wells you cannot influence the market by withholding or increasing the oil you control. You would probably need to control at least 5% of the worlds supply of oil to do that. And if you had control over that much all you would need to do is publish a press release saying that you are thinking about cutting production and then you would see oil futures rise. This, by the way, is illegal in the USA. If you ever wondered why oil execs in the US dont talk unless they are forced to by congress it is because they dont want to be fined or go to jail for being misunderstood.

BTW, something that the press never mentions as a major cause of the rise in the price of oil is how much the dollar has been whacked. The dollar has sunk about 30% in the past 2 years, vs the euro. That alone would account for the price of gas being so high. Yet the congress is blaming the oil companies.

Pete Simmons
05-25-2008, 11:47 AM
Ted:

The hydrogen info web site you posted raises many questions with me.

Yes there are ways to generate hydrogen using electrical power ( key word there being power ) and maybe if said Hydrogen was injected into an engine it could produce some power

But - every transition of energy has a efficency cost associated with it.

I would bet that any hydrogen power derived from this system is way less than the alternator power used to produce it thus a net loss overall.

I would also be concerned with hydrogen being contained in plexiglass containers in a truck type enviroment. Few small leaks - few random sparks and instant fireworks.

Looks like a cool way for someone to sell a very cheap apparatus for big $$ that does nothing and may be very dangerous to play with.

Again I hate to be the naysayer to all these ideas but I have studied the energy topic somewhat so far my conclusions are -

1. There is no free enegy lunch out there

2. Unless we (society of the world ) come up with an energy breakthru one of the best things we can do as citizens and parents would be to start teaching our Grand kids how to live in the conditions of midevil times.

I know it sounds harsh - but is is and is meant to be. 50 - 75 years from now without a breakthru, the world will be in sad shape.

Greg Peterson
05-25-2008, 2:28 PM
Oil provides the most bang for the buck. I don't think anyone can argue that point.

We've heard arguments about all the energy required to grow ethanol and produce fuel for nuclear reactors. But we haven't heard any facts about how much energy is required to find, drill, transport, refine and distribute oil. Getting oil out of the ground and into our tanks is a massive undertaking.

Had we heeded the lesson of the early 70's we would have been well on our way to a more stable and sustainable energy infrastructure.

Cheap energy has contributed to the urban sprawl. It has encouraged a throw away society that places a premium value on wastefulness. It is cheaper to replace many items these days than to make them serviceable. Keeps the wheels of commerce turning which in turn fattens up our 401k's.

Solving our dwindling energy options is only half the battle. Changing attitudes and habits is the other part of the equation and will occur on a generational time scale. These are the good old days.

Imagine what a multi trillion dollar investment six years ago might have meant to us now.

As consumers, we need only look in the mirror to find those responsible for todays problems.

Jeffrey Makiel
05-25-2008, 8:27 PM
I honestly don't believe that fuel prices will ever go back down. We allow "big brother" to look after us instead of "for the people, by the people". nuff said. ;)

Imagine if our nation regulated the oil industry and also accessed our own oil fields, but kept the price somewhat high. We would bail out social security and have premium health care for everyone, and as icing on the cake, stimulate conservation and energy research to eventually gain full energy independence.

Nope...Can't do...Wall Street says no.

As Butch said: "I personally believe that capitolism can be a destructive way to run a nation,when allowed to operate w/o oversight".

-Jeff :)

Ron Dunn
05-25-2008, 8:41 PM
This is an outsider's view, but still relevant in that we pay HIGHER petrol prices than you, and almost always have.

Most people outside the North American continent think that the root cause is Detroit. While the rest of the world looked for more fuel-efficient vehicles, Detroit kept pumping out barges. Not just big, fat, wallowing barges of cars; but barges with the fuel consumption of a pre-nuclear aircraft carrier.

Perhaps high fuel prices will force a change to more fuel-efficient vehicles, and we'll all benefit in the process.

Rob Russell
05-25-2008, 10:45 PM
Ron,

I appreciate your perspective. What's different about the USA is that the majority of our infrastructure is based on the automobile. America may be the rough geographaical size of Australia, but is much more evenly poplated in comparison.

It is an unfortunate fact that our public transportation system is generally vastly inferior to european countries or cities like Sydney. There are exceptions - San Francisco, for example.

I live in an area where I have few public transportation choices. It's a 10-15 minute walk to the end of my street, where I can take a bus and - with a change of bus lines - get to work in roughly an hour. I drive it in 15 minutes.

Since last year, I can ride it on a bike in 35-40 minutes.

Most parts of the USA are dependent on cars for transportation because that's how our country is physically laid out.

I submit that it's going to take significant change in the amount of time people are willing to spend commuting to reduce our oil consumption.

Greg Peterson
05-25-2008, 11:46 PM
Imagine if our nation regulated the oil industry and also accessed our own oil fields, but kept the price somewhat high. We would bail out social security and have premium health care for everyone, and as icing on the cake, stimulate conservation and energy research to eventually gain full energy independence.

Nope...Can't do...Wall Street says no.

As Butch said: "I personally believe that capitolism can be a destructive way to run a nation,when allowed to operate w/o oversight".

-Jeff :)

The oil that exists on public property is there for the private industry to harvest and put on the global market for as much as they can get. And the only crime committed thus far is that we haven't opened up these areas for them. If only we'd let the oil companies into the Arctic Reserve.

Wall street is no less corrupt than any other public body. Wall Street not only wrote the book on corruption, but they seemingly add a new chapter every five to ten years. When it comes to believing anything Wall Street has to say, I just assume it is a lie.

Capitalism is amoral. Man however is prone to insatiable bouts of greed. And that is the problem. It only takes one jerk to screw it up for everyone else.

I'm unhappy with the oil prices, and it may eventually cost me my job. But I don't fault the oil companies or suppliers for charging what the market will bare. But the Joe's that cashed out all the equity in their homes so they can commute all by themselves in bumper to bumper traffic in an F350 4X4 Power Stroke and now find themselves upside down in their homes and can no longer afford their Tonka truck indulgence annoy me.

Especially when their homes go into foreclosure and sit empty for months, inviting vandals. Yeah, the oil companies are bad actors, but I don't live near them. I live near folks that are leaving my neighbors and I holding the bag.

Ken Fitzgerald
05-26-2008, 12:07 AM
This is an outsider's view, but still relevant in that we pay HIGHER petrol prices than you, and almost always have.

Most people outside the North American continent think that the root cause is Detroit. While the rest of the world looked for more fuel-efficient vehicles, Detroit kept pumping out barges. Not just big, fat, wallowing barges of cars; but barges with the fuel consumption of a pre-nuclear aircraft carrier.

Perhaps high fuel prices will force a change to more fuel-efficient vehicles, and we'll all benefit in the process.

Ron,

I'm going to disagree with you. It's the consumer that buys the gas guzzling vehicles that creates the problems and causes the gas guzzlers to continue being made. Just this past week I think it was Ford announced they were cutting back on building SUVs and increasing the production on their "Fusion"? ....smaller more economical vehicle. Again, demand or a dramatic lack of demand by a buying public is changing the makeup of the market and what the manufacturer is going to produce.

Don't get me wrong. At one time we had 3 kids at home and we live in Idaho. Just a few blocks from my home is an `11% grade that when snow covered requires a skillful driver with 2 wheel drive or a less skillful driver with 4-wheel drive to navigate in the winter. We had reason because of the mountainous terrain, weather conditions and the number of kids we had at home. We had our share of SUVs....'74 International Scout II, '83 full sized Chevy Blazer, '86 Toyota 4-Runner and I currently have a '90 F-350 4x4 460 cui, 4:10 rear end, 5-speed manual pickup. I hunted elk and used that p/u to get in and out of and pull horse trailers into elk camp in the mountains here. After the kids grew up and the 4-Runner was 16 years old, we replaced it with a Honda Accord V-6....again V-6 because we live in the mountains and the 4-cylinders don't have the power to negotiate the moutain highways here without a constant strain on the transmission. But, there was never a need for a SUV when we lived in Illinois, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia. And we didn't have one. SUVs became a status symbol in many metropolitan areas where 4-WD isn't really necessary. Detroit was simply providing what the American consumer was demanding in my humble opinion.

Ron Dunn
05-26-2008, 12:34 AM
Ken, I think we'd have to dig deeper into the relationship between what manufacturers make and advertise, and how that affects what people demand. Like you say, urban SUVs don't seem very necessary, although they are in high demand.

I also think our perceptions of what is "needed" in a car are often wrong. For example, almost forty years ago my parents and their kids went on a long haul around Australia, through some of the roughest desert roads on earth. We did it towing a caravan (your trailer) behind a crummy Holden (the local GM brand) with a 161ci engine with around 100kw of power. These days, with roads immeasurably better, mostly sealed, it is claimed to be "necessary" to use a four-wheel drive with a large capacity diesel or a V8 engine. Marketing vs. reality.

But enough of the heroic-youth stories :)

Getting back to the point of my original post - excessive fuel consumption - would you dispute that the average fuel consumption of the the typical US car is significantly higher than the average fuel consumption of cars from anywhere else in the world? I'm not talking about distance travelled, I'm talking about fuel per unit of distance, such as litres per 100km, or miles per gallon.

Ken Fitzgerald
05-26-2008, 9:21 AM
Ken, I think we'd have to dig deeper into the relationship between what manufacturers make and advertise, and how that affects what people demand. Like you say, urban SUVs don't seem very necessary, although they are in high demand.

I also think our perceptions of what is "needed" in a car are often wrong. For example, almost forty years ago my parents and their kids went on a long haul around Australia, through some of the roughest desert roads on earth. We did it towing a caravan (your trailer) behind a crummy Holden (the local GM brand) with a 161ci engine with around 100kw of power. These days, with roads immeasurably better, mostly sealed, it is claimed to be "necessary" to use a four-wheel drive with a large capacity diesel or a V8 engine. Marketing vs. reality.

But enough of the heroic-youth stories :)

Getting back to the point of my original post - excessive fuel consumption - would you dispute that the average fuel consumption of the the typical US car is significantly higher than the average fuel consumption of cars from anywhere else in the world? I'm not talking about distance travelled, I'm talking about fuel per unit of distance, such as litres per 100km, or miles per gallon.

Nope.....I'd agree with that. But, I will also state, that because of the physical size of the US and dramatic changes in climate and terrain, we might have different needs in a vehicle. A small Mini-cooper aint' gonna hack it for this 6'2" 265 lb. country boy going 4800 kilometers from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean on the flats of the prairies, over the mountains and by the way....air conditioning isn't an option....it's got to be standard equipment for me.

Rob Russell
05-26-2008, 9:35 AM
Getting back to the point of my original post - excessive fuel consumption - would you dispute that the average fuel consumption of the the typical US car is significantly higher than the average fuel consumption of cars from anywhere else in the world? I'm not talking about distance travelled, I'm talking about fuel per unit of distance, such as litres per 100km, or miles per gallon.

I would generally agree with that statement. I also think that you have to look at some of the safety standards that US cars are required to meet. Some of those standards increase weight, which decreases fuel economy.

I do agree that the general size of US cars is larger than european cars.

Ray Gardiner
05-26-2008, 9:39 AM
I just filled up, it cost me $1.70 per liter for 95 octane, with no supermarket
discount docket at the local shell servo. That works out to $6.80/US gallon.

I would love to be paying $4.00 per gallon! (I could buy more tools)

Dennis Peacock
05-26-2008, 9:50 AM
I just filled up, it cost me $1.70 per liter for 95 octane, with no supermarket
discount docket at the local shell servo. That works out to $6.80/US gallon.

I would love to be paying $4.00 per gallon! (I could buy more tools)

95 Octane!!!!????? Really!!?? That's nearing avation grade fuel here. How about 87 octane for Regular fuel and Premium grade is 91 octane. Racing fuel here is around 106 octane.

Pete Simmons
05-26-2008, 10:20 AM
Are Octane numbers calculated differently in different parts of the world?

What is the status of No Lead in other parts of the world? Is it done differently (or at all ) from how it is done in the US?

Mike Henderson
05-26-2008, 11:14 AM
Are Octane numbers calculated differently in different parts of the world?

What is the status of No Lead in other parts of the world? Is it done differently (or at all ) from how it is done in the US?
Check out Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating) for a discussion of how octane is calculated. The numbers on pumps in different parts of the world are indeed calculated differently.

Mike

Butch Edwards
05-26-2008, 3:32 PM
Check out Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating) for a discussion of how octane is calculated. The numbers on pumps in different parts of the world are indeed calculated differently.

Mike

...hmmm...interesting....

Stephen Edwards
05-26-2008, 6:00 PM
the stock market is volitile, due to many factors...but I seriously doubt that crying wolf is one of them. as for the "experts", believe it or not, some are exactly that, and have been predicting this for years..they KNEW the sky was falling. I also heard 1 investor make the statement, that even retirement funds are buying up oil stocks, because as he put it.."if ya can't beat 'em,join 'em"..and they are doing just that...to the tune of nearly the same amount($$) that China is, buying oil. the CEOs of major oil companies are in front of congress yesterday and today, doing all they can to CONTINUE to pull the wool over the eyes of the elected. all their job is: turn a profit.period...and they will,anyway possible.
I agree that national news is built upon Bad news, and that's a statement of the condition of this society... we allow it to continue, by NOT turning it off...by maintaining silence...but that's another issue.

I unplugged my TV 3 years ago and haven't missed it a bit!