Is the cost of anything not going up?

[Brian Elfert]

Inflation may be less, but everything still seems to be going up in price. Verizon just increased my cell phone bill by $5 per month. My monthly bills have gone up by at least $200 per month since 2020. That doesn't include the high cost of food. It doesn't help that my wages are 15% less than they would be if they had kept up with inflation since I started in 2001. I track the price of Frito-Lay party size snacks at Walmart. The price just jumped up almost 10% more in the past couple of weeks. They had been under $4 at beginning of 2020 and the price is just about $6 now.

I am not sure how I am going to buy a replacement vehicle in three to five years. My vehicle has been paid off since early 2020. A new minivan has doubled in price since I bought mine in 2016. Part of the increase is due to no more stripped down base models like mine. I would like electric, but the VW electric minivan looks like it will be over $50,000 and not eligible for federal tax credits. In Minnesota rust is the biggest reason to need a replacement vehicle. My 2016 Grand Caravan is starting to have rust on the back side of the liftgate which eventually will eat through the liftgate. My parents had a 2000 Grand Caravan that they had to send to the scrapyard at 133,000 miles as the top of the strut towers were dangerously rusted. I am already at 96,000 miles and I feel certain my vehicle will make it past 133,000 miles.

[Jim Becker]

There are many things at play here...but one of the largest factors is supplier consolidation: fewer companies hold the whole market, making for less competition. And then there is Wall Street with it's short term expectations for profit increases. Prices are certainly up; but corporate profits are "to the moon". Did Frito-Lay need to raise the price of that snack package or did they do it because they could? And be sure you are also looking at the amount of product in the package. "Shrinkflation" is also at play...smaller quantities for the same money, followed by...a price increase when you least expect it.

----

BTW, folks...don't let politics get into this thread. Not permitted.

[Zachary Hoyt]

I hear you about things getting more expensive. 2x4x8s at Lowes are $3.58 now up here, so that's still pretty low.

[Edward Weber]

Not trying to pile on but you did just mention three things that most people in society need these days. Food, Phone and Car.
These prices can be raised by the corporations, knowing full well that people will "find a way" and pay for them somehow. This is non discretionary spending, when it goes up for whatever reason, we feel it more.

[Brian Elfert]

On top of this, my brother literally moments ago told me he is looking at dropping his Verizon family plan and going with Comcast Mobile instead. I only pay $45 a month as a member of his family plan. My cost for a single phone with Verizon will more than double as there is no way I will go with Comcast Mobile for a variety of reasons. If a Verizon tower is overloaded MVNOs like Comcast Mobile get lower speeds and I suppose could go all the way to no service if super overloaded. I believe there is also no roaming and no extended access with an MVNO on Verizon. I use extended access for a trip to the Nevada desert every year.

I won't switch to another carrier like T-Mobile because many at work have T-Mobile and report dead spots all over rural areas that Verizon covers just fine.

[Zachary Hoyt]

I have a TracFone plan that costs $200 a year, and mostly works pretty well. Occasionally I lose service, but not too often. I'm out in a very rural area, so that may also be a factor.

[Brian Elfert]

I have a TracFone plan that costs $200 a year, and mostly works pretty well. Occasionally I lose service, but not too often. I'm out in a very rural area, so that may also be a factor.

Sorry, but I would go without a phone before I spent a penny with Tracfone. Nothing against anyone who is happy with Tracfone. I just won't use it myself.

[Brian Elfert]

I am NOT looking at moving away from Verizon. If my brother changes to Xfinity Mobile I will just have to figure out what to cut out of my budget to pay the extra $50 to $60 a month for phone service. People with only one line really get raked over the coals by Verizon. If I leave Verizon I would also have to pay the remaining $600 on my iPhone 14. I was going to pay up front, but the $200 promotional credit is only valid if you pay the phone off over three years with no interest.

[Jim Koepke]

We haven't had cell phones for years, so do not know about the cost of those. We live in an area where there is no signal, so it didn't do us much good. We didn't feel like paying close to $100 a month for two phones just so we could find each other while shopping for groceries.

Most prices have settled down a bit out here. Eggs are still higher than we like. A lot of this is due to an avian flu wiping out chicken flocks. Most of the stores are now carrying more "cage free" eggs that are more expensive than the kept in a cage eggs.

Frito-Lay products are often on sale here. Buy four and they are #2.29. Sometimes it is buy five at $1.99. Often these are linked with a "Digital Coupon." This is one way of tracking the shoppers. Soda pop is often "buy two get two free," sometimes the deal is better. This is also linked to the "Rewards Card" or "Digital Deal."

When I was in the midwest, people often had two vehicles. One would be left in a garage during the winter and they would drive a beater during the "months of salted roads." We don't get as much snow in my area. (okay, this made me look up some statistics)

We do not use as much in WA as is used in MN > https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-the-contiguous-US-showing-the-average-amount-of-road-salt-sold-to-each-state_fig4_260226441

From Wikipedia:


The Salt Belt is the U.S. region in which road salt is used in winter to control snow and ice. States in the salt belt include Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Washington DC.[1][2][3] Other states such as Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho and Utah are also considered part of the Salt Belt but use less corrosive substances.

Road salt is a common cause for corrosion of automobile parts, and cars in the salt belt often experience more rapid rusting compared to other regions of the country, rendering them unsafe as brake lines, electrical wiring, and structural components are adversely affected. Manufacturer recalls for corrosion issues often target only vehicles operated within Salt Belt states.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_Belt

The underling and bold emphasis is mine. Many states have environmental groups that have been active in changing the chemistry used for road salt.

As far as wages go, many of my employer's labor contracts included an annual COLA (Cost Of Living Adjustment). I'm retired on a partially fixed income. Even that contains a COLA.

I know about raising car prices. I bought a new truck in 2021. That was a year when the car dealers had a hard time getting vehicles due to parts shortages caused by a thing called a "Global Pandemic."

Candy and I went out yesterday and had a late breakfast, it cost about $35 including the tip. I remember when with a generous tip it was less than $10 for the same or similar meal. I can remember nickel candy bars and 10¢ cokes from a machine. I remember when cigarets from a machine were 23¢. The companies actually paid someone to cut a slit in the celophane and put two pennies inside for change. I remember when those two pennies could buy something.

I remember talking to my dad about buying something and he didn't like the price. Even as a young man I knew enough to ask, "have you ever known prices to go down?"

Some prices may go down, but once the corporations know people will pay more it takes some strong competitor to step in with lower prices to get others to drop theirs.

We are living in a time when many influences are changing our world. One thing I like may be going away, butter beans or lima beans. Due to changes in the weather they have become scarce. I still have a few cans left. I like them with ham and maybe a few herbs or onions. I may have to buy them dry or grow my own.

jtk

[Brian Runau]

I agree with Jim's comments. When I retired in 2019 I was a Purchasing Manager for a mechanical industrial products company and most of my work was with suppliers based in China. Cost us @ $5000 to move a 20ft container from port to port, that included all the duties and transportation costs, delivered to the warehouse door, etc... During the pandemic I heard from many this cost had quadrupled or more. Companies had to pass this on, but the modus operandi is to keep the market price and put any increased profits from costs going down to the company vs passing this on in unit pricing.

Paying CEO's based on profit and share price has driven cost cutting, in the extreme, and my personal opinion is they are running out of ways to drive the stock price up to increase their compensation so, price increases and less competition. This is why they use cash to buy back stock, drives the stock price up, bigger share price for those that hold the shares. Only way prices come down is if we, the consumer, don't purchase items going forward. I know we all need food, but we can switch to vegetables etc... Tyson and many manufacturers are doing what the oil companies have done for years, supply and demand. Tyson is closing plants, reducing supply, which drives prices up.

We don't eat as much red meat as we used to, healthier for us not to, so fish and chicken and other good healthy sources of protein. I am type II diabetic and chips, pretzels are a no no, apples it is.

Brian

[Brian Elfert]

May 2020 was the end of production of the Dodge Grand Caravan. I had considered getting a new Grand Caravan back then and I wish I had done it. I could still buy a brand new one for $21,000 to $22,000 back then. That would have gotten me past 2030 before needing to pay the $40,000 price for a new minivan. The only issue with the 2019/2020 Grand Caravan SE is they removed the Stow N' Go seating in the SE model so I would have had to use up considerable garage space to store the seats.

You can buy a used rental Chrysler Pacifica for a decent price, but they all have mileage just over 60,000 miles. I prefer not to buy a vehicle that is a third to half used up already. Used minivans are also NASTY! No matter how well they are cleaned up they have stains all over the seats and the carpet from kids spilling stuff everywhere. I considered a used late model minivan the last time I made a purchase, but every one I looked at was full of stains. The used ones also cost more than new because they were not the base model.

[Ron Citerone]

Bananas are still cheap. I eat one every day.

[Brian Elfert]

We haven't had cell phones for years, so do not know about the cost of those. We live in an area where there is no signal, so it didn't do us much good. We didn't feel like paying close to $100 a month for two phones just so we could find each other while shopping for groceries.

Most prices have settled down a bit out here. Eggs are still higher than we like. A lot of this is due to an avian flu wiping out chicken flocks. Most of the stores are now carrying more "cage free" eggs that are more expensive than the kept in a cage eggs.

Frito-Lay products are often on sale here. Buy four and they are #2.29. Sometimes it is buy five at $1.99. Often these are linked with a "Digital Coupon." This is one way of tracking the shoppers. Soda pop is often "buy two get two free," sometimes the deal is better. This is also linked to the "Rewards Card" or "Digital Deal."

When I was in the midwest, people often had two vehicles. One would be left in a garage during the winter and they would drive a beater during the "months of salted roads." We don't get as much snow in my area. (okay, this made me look up some statistics)

It is a requirement to have a cell phone for my line of work. I would lose my job without having one. My employer used to pay for my phone, but they switched to T-Mobile and I wanted to keep Verizon so I switched to paying my own. My employer will not allow those who left the corporate plan to rejoin, nor will they pay the same amount of money towards a different carrier. A mobile phone makes my life so much easier in general that I would not go without. I can receive important phone calls without them going to voicemail on a land line and playing phone tag. (No, I am not the jerk that talks on the phone while in line at the store, or answers the phone during meetings. I will step out of line to answer the call or send the call to voicemail.)

I suspect the cage free thing is because of California. California requires cage free eggs and surrounding states likely get caught up in that. Last year we stopped at Costco in Salt Lake City on a road trip and thought Costco charged too much for eggs since Costco always sells cage free and/or organic. We stopped at Walmart in Reno, NV and all of the eggs were cage free. The price was double what eggs cost at home at the time and no less expensive than Costco.

[Brian Elfert]

Some food prices have gone down a little bit, and the package size stayed the same. The cost is still higher than January 2020, but better a small price decrease rather than continued increases. A grocery store chain in Europe earlier this year stopped carrying Pepsi products due to yet another price increase from Pepsi. I looked at their online website and it appears the only Pepsi products they carry are single serve like you get at the register, and 1.5 liter bottles. They don't carry Pepsi in cans, or multipacks of bottles like they carry for Coke. They also stopped carrying most Frito-Lay products which is the same company.

Grocery pricing is different in France. Grocery stores sign contracts with suppliers between Jan 1 and March 31st. The prices are fixed then from April 1st through March 31st of the next year. Apparently, contracts can include revision clauses, but only 20% do. Stores can still do promotions, but the law requires sale prices to be at least 66% of regular price, and only 25% of the total sales volume of an item can be at a promotional price. I didn't see anything that says if suppliers can reduce package sizing instead of price increases during the contract term.

[Rick Potter]

I have always considered myself lucky with inflation. I remember stories of fellow workers who had been retired 20 years and their retirement was eaten up by inflation. When I retired in 1999, inflation remained very low overall, for 20 years. My retirement has a COLA maxed at 3%, same as the older guys and I have so far done pretty well. Now I will start feeling the inflation much more, as I am limited to that 3% COLA.

This round of inflation is starting to look like the late 70's when interest rates for mortgages were well over 10%, and property taxes were doubling in one shot. I had bought a new home in '73 and there were model homes nearby that the builder kept open for over seven years as he built more homes in the area. I went over and picked up the brochure for the homes about every six months. The brochure never changed, just the prices. I paid $40,950 for our house in 1973, and the same house in 1978-9 was over $80K. Fortunately for me, I bought it while I could afford it. From that date on, I have always lived in houses I cannot afford to buy were I starting out from scratch.

This sounds ridiculous but we had a desert shack we could move to if we could not make the payments, as it was a stretch when we bought it. Payments were $226, not including taxes. Within five years of buying it, they would have been tripled because of the price increase plus the higher interest rates. We lived there 32 years, and I sold it to my daughter at a deal ($600K) in 2006. It has almost doubled in price since that point. I agree, ridiculous.

So, who makes the money on inflation? Government. When we sold it, we got another home and paid higher taxes than before, while she moved in and also paid higher taxes than she had, of course her old home was sold and......etc.

Advice to the younger ones: Some sort of hedge against inflation is a worthy goal. I never studied the stock market, or other financial goals, but my dad encouraged me to get a rental if a good deal comes along.

Example... I found a steal on a condo in Phoenix. A long way from home, but the son of a good friend lives nearby, and I am glad to let him make most repairs and decisions, as he is trustworthy. Bought it about ten years ago for $37K (there were empty places all over town then), and rented it out for $600 a month. Now it is worth $200K, and I still rent it for $1100. I keep the rent low as I have a great tenant for the last six years, and want to keep him.

Now, at 81, I depend on rentals as my hedge against inflation.

[Brian Runau]

I have always considered myself lucky with inflation. I remember stories of fellow workers who had been retired 20 years and their retirement was eaten up by inflation. When I retired in 1999, inflation remained very low overall, for 20 years. My retirement has a COLA maxed at 3%, same as the older guys and I have so far done pretty well. Now I will start feeling the inflation much more, as I am limited to that 3% COLA.

This round of inflation is starting to look like the late 70's when interest rates for mortgages were well over 10%, and property taxes were doubling in one shot. I had bought a new home in '73 and there were model homes nearby that the builder kept open for over seven years as he built more homes in the area. I went over and picked up the brochure for the homes about every six months. The brochure never changed, just the prices. I paid $40,950 for our house in 1973, and the same house in 1978-9 was over $80K. Fortunately for me, I bought it while I could afford it.

This sounds ridiculous but we had a desert shack we could move to if we could not make the payments, as it was a stretch when we bought it. They were $226, not including taxes. Within five years of buying it, they would have been tripled because of the price increase plus the higher interest rates. We lived there 32 years, and I sold it to my daughter at a deal ($600K) in 2006. It has almost doubled in price since that point. I agree, ridiculous.

So, who makes the money on inflation? Government. When we sold it, we got another home and paid higher taxes than before, while she moved in and also paid higher taxes than she had, of course her old home was sold and......etc.

The banks or lender make the money unless the increase is much higher than the overall average for inflation over time. My parents 30 year mortgage was $40/month. Small home early 1950's. When I sold it after they had passed I got about what the mortgage payments were over those 30 years. brian

[Pat Germain]

I have these conversations with my adult son and daughter all the time. They are very frustrated at how expensive everything is today; especially housing. They do have a point. Cars and houses are much more expensive today than when I was a young adult.

And boy do they get furious when people say, "Move some place cheaper!". To that I'll hear comments like, "Oh sure, your buddy moved to the Everglades and got a job abducting children for a swamp witch. And, let me guess, it doesn't pay a lot, but he gets by!". :) Yeah, much hyperbole here, but they do have a point. My daughter is video producer. She put herself through school and worked very hard to get her job in Seattle. There is just no way she can move to Toledo and expect to find any work beyond cashier at a convenience store. My son is a brand manager for a distillery. Wherever the cost of living is low, the local market won't support a brand manager.

[Warren Lake]

didnt read, really feel for kids for homes, much easier back when I got one.

im on my third panasonic camera and while they have gone up maybe 15 percent over 15 years you get way more.

[Jerry Bruette]

The advice I get here, and most of it is pretty darn good, is still pretty cheap.

And the advice I give is dirt cheap.

[Mel Fulks]

Bananas are still cheap. I eat one every day.

Yep, and I’ve got a holly tree that I bought at least 15 years ago that has never produced berries. Read that banana peels will help berry
production. While watching TV I cut them into small pieces . My wife doesn’t like it , but I find it “appealing”.

[Doug Garson]

Not trying to pile on but you did just mention three things that most people in society need these days. Food, Phone and Car.
These prices can be raised by the corporations, knowing full well that people will "find a way" and pay for them somehow. This is non discretionary spending, when it goes up for whatever reason, we feel it more.
Not sure " Frito-Lay party size snacks " would be considered non discretionary. :cool: I agree though that much of current inflation is corporate greed not increased costs of production and delivery.

[Brian Elfert]

Not sure " Frito-Lay party size snacks " would be considered non discretionary. :cool: I agree though that much of current inflation is corporate greed not increased costs of production and delivery.

The Frito-Lay party size snacks is just an example of something I have monitored the price of over time, and which has gone up at twice the rate of overall grocery inflation.

My employer is certainly facing higher prices for production and delivery. The input costs of most everything has gone up. Diesel fuel for deliveries is still high, although the price is down from recent highs. The price of new heavy duty straight trucks to replace worn out trucks has gone through the roof. Even parts to keep old trucks on the road longer have gone up significantly. Labor costs are higher as employees demand higher wages due to inflation. One piece of software critical to operation of the company more than doubled in annual cost. Software support and maintenance costs have been going up by 10% to 20% per year on much of the software we use. One raw material that is my employer's second highest cost behind labor has gone up significantly due to the plant closest to us closing and transportation costs being much higher now due to longer distance from the next closest plant.

[Malcolm McLeod]

…corporate greed…

From Intuit/CreditKarma, but lots of other sources:

In a Nutshell
Causes of inflation generally break down into two categories, demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation. As for current inflation, the main contributing factors include the increase in the money supply, supply chain disruption and fossil fuel policies.

No mention of greed, but we can all find our own confirmation bias - if we look hard enough.

[Lee Schierer]

Yep, and I’ve got a holly tree that I bought at least 15 years ago that has never produced berries.

You may have a male holly tree (https://nwdistrict.ifas.ufl.edu/hort/2020/12/04/not-all-holly-plants-produce-berries-for-christmas/). You need to buy it some friends,,,,,

[Patty Hann]

You may have a male holly tree (https://nwdistrict.ifas.ufl.edu/hort/2020/12/04/not-all-holly-plants-produce-berries-for-christmas/). You need to buy it some friends,,,,,
If he does get his tree a "lady friend" I hope there are bees around to facilitate the courtship. :)

[Edward Weber]

Not sure " Frito-Lay party size snacks " would be considered non discretionary. :cool: I agree though that much of current inflation is corporate greed not increased costs of production and delivery.

It's a sort of "food" or at least food adjacent. :D

[Mel Fulks]

You may have a male holly tree (https://nwdistrict.ifas.ufl.edu/hort/2020/12/04/not-all-holly-plants-produce-berries-for-christmas/). You need to buy it some friends,,,,,

Thanks,Lee. I was warned about it taking a long time . Giving it lots of banana peels ! Actually saw a berry recently ! Bought the tree
from a good dealer . It’s a Nellie Stevens, which is known to be the fastest growing kind . Has real glossy leaves ….so I don’t have to
wax them.

[Jim Koepke]

Thanks,Lee. I was warned about it taking a long time . Giving it lots of banana peels ! Actually saw a berry recently ! Bought the tree
from a good dealer . It’s a Nellie Stevens, which is known to be the fastest growing kind . Has real glossy leaves ….so I don’t have to
wax them.

As others have mentioned, holly is dioecious. That means you have to have a male and a female to get berries.

Be careful for what you wish. Birds will drop seeds from berries in some place where you, or your neighbors, may not want holly trees. A few years ago a neighbor had some holly trees removed. He was very happy for me to take the wood away as it saved him dump fees. Didn't have a way to quick dry it so it isn't as white as properly dried holly. It is still a pretty wood.

jtk

[Lee DeRaud]

No mention of greed, but we can all find our own confirmation bias - if we look hard enough.
Cost-push inflation tends to have a ratcheting effect baked in unless there is active pressure to reduce prices when/if costs go back down. Whether you call it "greed" or "maximization of shareholder value" is in the eye of the beholder.

There's also the effect of timing on volatile cost components. My favorite example is how gasoline prices go up almost immediately when the price of crude goes up (i.e. at the front end of a rather long supply chain) and only go down when the cost of refined/delivered gas goes down (i.e. at the back end of the same supply chain). There is a lot of profit under the curve in that time lag...again, you don't have to call it greed if you don't want to, but it certainly exists.

[Lee DeRaud]

The real issue is that when inflation is (near-)zero, it doesn't mean that prices aren't higher than they used to be, which is really what most people complain about.

(The people who expect prices to go "back to normal" are typically the same people who think "reducing the deficit" and "paying off the debt" are the same thing.)

[Bruce Wrenn]

When we built our house (1980) payment, taxes, and insurance were about half what taxes are now. Recently got new tax value, and it's north of a million.

[Ron Citerone]

You are exactly right on this post and the last!


The real issue is that when inflation is (near-)zero, it doesn't mean that prices aren't higher than they used to be, which is really what most people complain about.

(The people who expect prices to go "back to normal" are typically the same people who think "reducing the deficit" and "paying off the debt" are the same thing.)

[Mel Fulks]

Nellie Stevens doesn’t need a pollinator, that’s probably another reason she is so popular.

[Lawrence Duckworth]

Malcolm McLeod--"Causes of inflation..the main contributing factors include the increase in the money supply."


​What does this mean? How do you increase the money supply? Who does that; is it just a matter of working more hours and earning it?

[Doug Garson]

From Intuit/CreditKarma, but lots of other sources:


No mention of greed, but we can all find our own confirmation bias - if we look hard enough.
Yep it all depends on where you look. From the Economic Policy Institute "Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC (non financial corporate) sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8% price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Strikingly, over half of this increase (53.9%) can be attributed to fatter profit margins, with labor costs contributing less than 8% of this increase. This is not normal."
https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/

[Patty Hann]

Yep it all depends on where you look. From the Economic Policy Institute "Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC (non financial corporate) sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8% price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Strikingly, over half of this increase (53.9%) can be attributed to fatter profit margins, with labor costs contributing less than 8% of this increase. This is not normal."
https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-disproportionately-to-inflation-how-should-policymakers-respond/

Economic Policy Institute... Is it Red affiliated (Right leaning) or Blue affiliated? (Left leaning)
That might make a difference in its reporting, kind of bias it ...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Policy_Institute.

[Jim Koepke]

Malcolm McLeod--"Causes of inflation..the main contributing factors include the increase in the money supply."


​What does this mean? How do you increase the money supply? Who does that; is it just a matter of working more hours and earning it?

There are a few ways the money supply increases. When government issued bonds are redeemed, the money to redeem them either has to come from the taxpayers or the government printing presses. (can you guess which is more likely to occur?) Municipal bonds from states, counties and cities have to be paid off by collecting of taxes. U.S. Government bonds are often paid off by cranking up the printing presses. To much printing press money can put too many dollars chasing a shortage of goods. That can, and most likely will, cause inflation.

If enough people stopped buying potato chips and soda pop, prices would likely drop. That is what sales are about. Retailers don't like products that don't move off the shelves.

jtk

[Brian Runau]

Walmart Mart family and shareholders benefit from stock pricing going up.

517418

[Pat Germain]

From Intuit/CreditKarma, but lots of other sources:


No mention of greed, but we can all find our own confirmation bias - if we look hard enough.

The quote you posted ended with "fossil fuel policies". That's the very definition of corporate greed. I get it. The whole planet has a petroleum based economy. Everyone depends on petroleum. But it's a reality that the people who produce petroleum are motivated by corporate greed. On the one hand, that motivates companies to produce said petroleum. On the other hand, it motivates companies to keep the prices as high as possible. The only reason prices aren't higher than they are now is because petroleum companies know the higher the prices go, the more motivation there is to switch to alternative energy sources. And that would get in the way of their corporate greed.

[Curt Harms]

On top of this, my brother literally moments ago told me he is looking at dropping his Verizon family plan and going with Comcast Mobile instead. I only pay $45 a month as a member of his family plan. My cost for a single phone with Verizon will more than double as there is no way I will go with Comcast Mobile for a variety of reasons. If a Verizon tower is overloaded MVNOs like Comcast Mobile get lower speeds and I suppose could go all the way to no service if super overloaded. I believe there is also no roaming and no extended access with an MVNO on Verizon. I use extended access for a trip to the Nevada desert every year.

I won't switch to another carrier like T-Mobile because many at work have T-Mobile and report dead spots all over rural areas that Verizon covers just fine.

Little O.T. but I believe Comcast is building their own mobile infrastructure for at least part of their system that is now using Verizon. Comcast is already providing quite a bit of network capacity to other mobile system providers so they're adding cell site hardware.

[Jim Becker]

Little O.T. but I believe Comcast is building their own mobile infrastructure for at least part of their system that is now using Verizon. Comcast is already providing quite a bit of network capacity to other mobile system providers so they're adding cell site hardware.
They may decide to do that in more urban areas where they have fiber infrastructure, but just like ATT, VZ and TMo, a lot of the wireless infrastructure "out there" is owned and operated by specialty companies like Crown Castle. It's a "yuge" investment to put discrete hardware for each carrier, so they all lease from the specialty companies when it makes sense to do so. Right here in Doylestown where you and I live, all those 5G wide band nodes throughout town are owned by Crown Castle and are connected physically to VZ's fiber. VZ leases access to the nodes (they got first dibs) but the contract allows for other carriers to lease access if they prefer. (I do not know if any are doing that currently)

[Rich Engelhardt]

Economic Policy Institute... Is it Red affiliated (Right leaning) or Blue affiliated? (Left leaning)
That might make a difference in its reporting, kind of bias it ...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Policy_Institute.

Careful - you'll run afoul of the ban on politics. ;)

[Rod Sheridan]

Brian, the cost of our virtual friendships with everyone here is free, and priceless.

A bargain at any price

Regards, Rod

[Brian Runau]

Brian, the cost of our virtual friendships with everyone here is free, and priceless.

A bargain at any price

Regards, Rod

Well, I've always said, "I'm not easy, but I can be had." Brian

[Ronald Blue]

It's only going to get worse too. A friend told me today he sold 700 steers for slaughter Friday for the highest price he's ever gotten. $1.91 per pound. Wait a few months for that to make it's way to the grocery store. It's a good time to be in the cattle business with corn prices tanking. Prices have increased on and many things and many things they reduces the package quantity to make it look like there was no change. In the end the consumer is almost always the loser.

[Maurice Mcmurry]

The Ag. economy is followed closely in our area. This article appeared today.

https://www.ksdk.com/article/tech/science/environment/university-of-missouri-report-falling-prices-could-squeeze-farmers/63-45114996-1fda-43fb-93cd-b9d7f66e2c83

[Patty Hann]

Careful - you'll run afoul of the ban on politics. ;)
Just reminding folks to check out the SOURCE of the stats being cited; could be Red, Blue, Purple (even Magenta or Lavender ;))
Just check the source.

[Lee DeRaud]

Careful - you'll run afoul of the ban on politics. ;)

Heh. I've long had the impression that the overlap between economics and politics is nearly 100% for a largish percentage of the population.
(Of course, the same is true for politics and religion, so a Venn diagram of all three is kind of boring.)

[Malcolm Schweizer]

I stopped to air up a tire and they wanted $2.00 for air. AIR!!! $2.00 !!!! I’m done.

[Jim Becker]

I stopped to air up a tire and they wanted $2.00 for air. AIR!!! $2.00 !!!! I’m done.
The air was free. Use of the machine, well... ;)

[Pat Germain]

The air was free. Use of the machine, well... ;)

And dollars to doughnuts you put your $2.00 into the machine only to find out it's broken and you still don't get any air.

[Patty Hann]

I stopped to air up a tire and they wanted $2.00 for air. AIR!!! $2.00 !!!! I’m done.

QT has free air (at least in metro Phoenix)

[Jim Becker]

QT has free air (at least in metro Phoenix)
Costco has free nitrogen...

[Brian Elfert]

Holiday gas stations have typically had free air, but newly built or rebuilt stations seemed to have switch to the pay model. A number of gas stations say they give the proceeds from the air machine to charity. Loves started charging $5 or $10 for using the RV dump station maybe a decade ago. They give that money to Children's Miracle Network, at least in September every year. They even offer to let you fill out one of the hearts to hang on the wall if you pay for the dump station.

[Don Corbeil]

There is a lot of sub types for inflation to make it appear not apparent, for example ShirnkFlation where packaging is getting smaller but the price stays the same. Companies sure love to use hidden ways to mask inflation

[Malcolm McLeod]

The quote you posted ended with "fossil fuel policies". That's the very definition of corporate greed. I get it. The whole planet has a petroleum based economy. Everyone depends on petroleum. But it's a reality that the people who produce petroleum are motivated by corporate greed. On the one hand, that motivates companies to produce said petroleum. On the other hand, it motivates companies to keep the prices as high as possible. The only reason prices aren't higher than they are now is because petroleum companies know the higher the prices go, the more motivation there is to switch to alternative energy sources. And that would get in the way of their corporate greed.

My take-away from the quoted article is that "policies" are not dictated by corporations, but rather by... uhm... well... ... by policy makers. I'll leave it at that. We mustn't anger Mr. Moderator.

On supply and demand side of things, please keep in mind that for every major O&G company there are dozens, if not hundreds, of small independent producers. If a given 'major' wants to cut production to drive prices up, there are 50 companies who will gleefully crank a well or 20 open, or drill a new well, to make up the difference - in a commodity market where no one 'controls' their own prices. (Take a look at who controls the price of a Tesla or iPhone.) And let's not forget the impact on world energy markets of that little survival dance in Ukraine.

Also curious what defines "Corporate Greed"? IMO the media largely lives and dies on click-bait reports of the oil & gas 'major's' profits. But O&G industry net profit margins are reportedly ~2.8% (via investopedia). Other large companies: GOOG=24.01%; AAPL=26.16%; AMZN=5.29%; Ford=2.47% (via macrotrends). Mentioned here: Costco=2.43%. Or maybe some cereal(?): General Mills=12.06% (macrotrends again). If O&G industry gets down to 2.5% are they still greedy?

Would XOM or Chevron be less greedy is they produced lithium? What if they were already providing carbon capture & sequestration services? Or CO2 direct air capture R&D? Maybe.

A little research goes a long way. And improves GOOG profit margins!

[Don Corbeil]

My take-away from the quoted article is that "policies" are not dictated by corporations, but rather by... uhm... well... ... by policy makers. I'll leave it at that. We mustn't anger Mr. Moderator.

On supply and demand side of things, please keep in mind that for every major O&G company there are dozens, if not hundreds, of small independent producers. If a given 'major' wants to cut production to drive prices up, there are 50 companies who will gleefully crank a well or 20 open, or drill a new well, to make up the difference - in a commodity market where no one 'controls' their own prices. (Take a look at who controls the price of a Tesla or iPhone.) And let's not forget the impact on world energy markets of that little survival dance in Ukraine.

Also curious what defines "Corporate Greed"? IMO the media largely lives and dies on click-bait reports of the oil & gas 'major's' profits. But O&G industry net profit margins are reportedly ~2.8% (via investopedia). Other large companies: GOOG=24.01%; AAPL=26.16%; AMZN=5.29%; Ford=2.47% (via macrotrends). Mentioned here: Costco=2.43%. Or maybe some cereal(?): General Mills=12.06% (macrotrends again). If O&G industry gets down to 2.5% are they still greedy?

Would XOM or Chevron be less greedy is they produced lithium? What if they were already providing carbon capture & sequestration services? Or CO2 direct air capture R&D? Maybe.

A little research goes a long way. And improves GOOG profit margins!

While corporations play a significant role in the petroleum industry, policy decisions also exert substantial impact. Regarding "corporate greed," it's a subjective term influenced by perceptions of profit margins and corporate behavior. Comparing net profit margins across industries provides valuable context, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of corporate motivations. Exploring alternative energy initiatives like lithium production or carbon capture showcases potential avenues for mitigating environmental concerns while addressing corporate interests.

[Doug Garson]

mmmm according to Investopedia "The average net profit margin for oil and gas production was 4.7% in 2021 and 31.3% in Q4 2021.

For oil and gas exploration and production stocks included in the S&P 500 index, the aggregate operating profit margin was 19.6% in Q4 2021, according to Yardeni Research"


So it looks like the spike in O&G profit margins kinda happened just before inflation rose dramatically, maybe it was one of the drivers?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-profit-margin-company-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp

[Bill Howatt]

Oil profits are highly dependent on price per barrel and this is not totally governed by the usual market pressures - it is highly influenced by cartels like OPEC+ who decide to increase or decrease supply. I think the industry also suffers from lean years so the profit surge is seen as something to average out the low years. Yes, higher oil prices are inflationary.

[Warren Lake]

I know they struggle, past seen the dirt farmers with 50 Ferraris.

[Pat Germain]

mmmm according to Investopedia "The average net profit margin for oil and gas production was 4.7% in 2021 and 31.3% in Q4 2021.

For oil and gas exploration and production stocks included in the S&P 500 index, the aggregate operating profit margin was 19.6% in Q4 2021, according to Yardeni Research"


So it looks like the spike in O&G profit margins kinda happened just before inflation rose dramatically, maybe it was one of the drivers?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-profit-margin-company-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp

In 2023 Exxon-Mobil posted a profit of $36 billion. That's not revenue. That's profit. And yes, petroleum prices are a key driver of inflation.

[Doug Garson]

Here's my take on it, not claiming to be an expert. What most of us are affected by, or at least notice the most, is cost of gasoline or diesel to fuel our vehicles or the vehicles that deliver goods to us. Gasoline prices are affected by the price of oil and also by supply & demand forces. There is a bit of a delima right now, as the O&G industries are, or are approaching, the status of a sunset industry. Demand for gasoline is still increasing but not forever and a lot of production facilities were cut back during the pandemic and I believe companies are hesitant to make large investments to increase production knowing they may not get a return on their investment as demand falls off in the not to distant future. This doesn't make them villains, they have a responsibility to their investors to maximize profits not responsibility to the public to keep prices down.
How we solve this is, as they say, beyond my pay grade.

[Malcolm McLeod]

mmmm according to Investopedia "The average net profit margin for oil and gas production was 4.7% in 2021 and 31.3% in Q4 2021.

For oil and gas exploration and production stocks included in the S&P 500 index, the aggregate operating profit margin was 19.6% in Q4 2021, according to Yardeni Research"


So it looks like the spike in O&G profit margins kinda happened just before inflation rose dramatically, maybe it was one of the drivers?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-profit-margin-company-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp

Operating? Net? ...you'd almost think CPAs are trying to confuse someone. My figure was based on this snap-shot...

About 2.8%


A different online data set based on fiscal year 2020 accounting data calculates the average net profit margin for the oil and gas production and exploration sector at about 2.8%. The operating margin for oil and gas production was 44.4% in Q4 2021 and 23% for the full year, according to CSIMarket.
Average Profit Margin for Oil & Gas Drilling - Investopedia (https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=98c8d88bd8087049JmltdHM9MTcxMTQxMTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0z MzI5OWIyYy1hNTVjLTY0NzQtMzlmMi04OGU3YTRhZDY1YzYmaW 5zaWQ9NTUwNw&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=3&fclid=33299b2c-a55c-6474-39f2-88e7a4ad65c6&psq=oil+and+gas+net+profit+margin&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaW52ZXN0b3BlZGlhLmNvbS9hc2svYW 5zd2Vycy8wMTIwMTUvd2hhdC1hdmVyYWdlLXByb2ZpdC1tYXJn aW4tY29tcGFueS1vaWwtZ2FzLWRyaWxsaW5nLXNlY3Rvci5hc3 AjOn46dGV4dD1BJTIwZGlmZmVyZW50JTIwb25saW5lJTIwZGF0 YSUyMHNldCUyMGJhc2VkJTIwb24lMjBmaXNjYWwsMjMlMjUlMj Bmb3IlMjB0aGUlMjBmdWxsJTIweWVhciUyQyUyMGFjY29yZGlu ZyUyMHRvJTIwQ1NJTWFya2V0Lg&ntb=1)


https://sawmillcreek.org/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABAAAAAQCAYAAAA f8/9hAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZ cwAADsIAAA7CARUoSoAAAAMmSURBVDhPZVP7S1NRHL8Q5X8Q9E OEuXTOx 7d3d12p1NJJB9pzvuYD1QiIjB6v6kgCCyjkkQiTYkSrCgIJHv8 Fj0QKpOQIDMDnZubNk1nc2675/T9zgllXzjcc7/n8znfz/mez2HWBis6BdYmdxtF RsnyiFelIPw/Qa5zixrJZ A/R86XXESZ6u6wYlqzJxbS3m7i2RYFbrVrFCj6CLm3BqKa6wotSI 2QUuETpcEFV4IefWUs6sEKsaQ7Cyqnm9rbPQV5Kvz2TaFmERVQ wxgnzIMvz7BRtlK28qCEuVEANpVmi7ISwNn9k3Qu4dpx57dc8m 8DKoUgpgVrHotTjbaqnKgagTkgUQFB FzXCSVryJNxc5fo2f3uhvKahcMoAg2BnUKDJWCmjAnSGaGE6Wu 1fMhwGRXqC6zlOYWNiyeuNDu5vLqZvWCBNVXCqA6xAp5dTTT7L wJ8uVRk91FoapmMFXS1OydkSMnW3zTM4EAhRgc jKRbZHCq oSKrQ0YwU15aifGCAvQ1NocnqxVla1P/D 4/A0EjWNEPyOj3vHjRYphBvg0bDItqyy8KlzrX6P1 9jtmXtjMIGize7Hnoj0VgQSWM/JucePH75Fedv3g169WxFCJpHkw0lWkllU DtwNAUrhGihZgDR5s/fB bmMMEFF3qffRsMs1YHjp4/JIbcz29feGNW/Jj0OhQ 637nlhMW8C8d2omePFyx2uGENKFic/DI75K1yE/NDC2Rb DXm /N4/5lmvds3LdUZ/P/3MW/6FIuPdhv1tw1NBNKYW3mEgkYm0ulLN1Usp3O7qOCoJsmG4tidn idhJPj9AU8kGl3G fCXUb9Sd2wmJbOUGK3SMu oscS9sFlfFDcSXE8UrymNLQ /fjs4iSSMYPD3z9PnWz16yEM/iLWgAW5AaYmTMQwGZQNc53Mhvz5ulgzeGYXeTP2aX/D09b/yiNvrZ1MySjRcswIGsH1AW7fCTgQ ENYqtcat6qilcBzCimoIGhrJssjUAsZBA3E26SrD//UO1gZrdgqcVbkNjhzJtkpR1q6AzZUR1iJ3ZKJ1/wmG QOdBdSOax1odgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==
www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-profit-margin-compa…
Not sure why investopedia and yardeni only report with 2021 data? But interesting that O&G still falls short of GOOG. Darn.

And the inflation spike 'kinda happened' about the same time as Putin's brain fart. Or perhaps a look at OPEC+ actions at around that same time? Or perhaps driven by global pandemic recovery? And perhaps driven by 2019's shut-in and P&A of wells when you couldn't give O&G away? And perhaps driven by O&G industry having to up the rig count with the resulting lag in production recovery? And perhaps driven by a change in policy maker? I'll let you decide.

And then who could possibly expect record sales to generate record profits. My cutting board business is SO disappointed!

[Pat Germain]

This doesn't make them villains, they have a responsibility to their investors to maximize profits not responsibility to the public to keep prices down.

They are villains in some ways. During recent lockdowns, demand for petroleum plummeted and so did petroleum prices. Of course, oil companies halted production big time and laid off many thousands. When demand started to increase, oil companies didn't increase production. They simply let high demand and low supply create a spike in prices. Then they sat back and reaped record profits while people tended to blame a certain politician for high gas prices.

As oil prices go higher, the incentive for alternate energy sources increases as well. So, US oil companies let the high prices ride for a while, THEN they slowly started to increase production until the US became the world's largest producer of petroleum.

US oil companies know the end of petroleum energy for most everything is coming. In fact, they are paradoxically investing in renewable energy while simultaneously spending tens of millions of dollars on misinformation campaigns. If you see people on TV telling us climate change is a hoax, those people invariably work for some "non-profit" funded by oil companies. If you see articles online or in print ridiculing the green energy industry, those articles were paid for by oil companies. If you see memes about how electric vehicles die in the cold and burst into flames, those were created and perpetuated by oil companies. (Sure, there is some truth to this, but oil companies exaggerate and perpetuate it while conveniently not mentioning that ICE vehicles also die in the cold and burst into flames.) Everyday people embrace all this misinformation and propaganda because they believe they are being deceived by an evil movement to destroy America. (At least that's what they tell me. And this is all very similar to tobacco companies creating and perpetuating information in the 70s and 80s about how there's no proof smoking causes cancer.)

Sure, OPEC is also a very big factor in global petroleum prices, but US oil companies can also push prices either way if they want; and they do.

[Thomas McCurnin]

In my lifetime, nothing has ever gone down in price. I remember gas for 30 cents a gallon. I'm not sure what the point of this thread is.

[Malcolm McLeod]

In 2023 Exxon-Mobil posted a profit of $36 billion. That's not revenue. That's profit. And yes, petroleum prices are a key driver of inflation.

^Yep. And they posted ~$1.5T in 2023 revenue. Or with my napkin math, 2.4% profit (yes, it is a bit off from the other cited sources). What are your acceptable margins?

Or with a quick look-back:
In 4th Qtr 2020 (9/1/2020>12/31/2020) Exxon-Mobil posted a loss of $36 billion. That's not revenue. That's loss.

It impacted 80,000 employees (now 70,000), 500,000 contractors (give or take 100,000-ish), and several million stockholders. A pity they are people too.

[Malcolm McLeod]

Lest we forget...

$383 billion


Apple, the world’s leading manufacturer of consumer electronics devices and the most profitable company in the United States, generated total revenues of $383 billion during fiscal year (FY) 2023, which spanned 12 months ending on September 30, 2023.
Apple Sales And Profits Analysis For FY 2023 — Top 10 Insights (https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=c9c819d3660635cbJmltdHM9MTcxMTQxMTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0z MzI5OWIyYy1hNTVjLTY0NzQtMzlmMi04OGU3YTRhZDY1YzYmaW 5zaWQ9NTQ3OQ&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=3&fclid=33299b2c-a55c-6474-39f2-88e7a4ad65c6&psq=Apple+profit+in+2023&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZm9ycmVzdGVyLmNvbS9ibG9ncy9hcH BsZS1zYWxlcy1hbmQtcHJvZml0cy1hbmFseXNpcy1mb3ItZnkt MjAyMy10b3AtMTAtaW5zaWdodHMvIzp-OnRleHQ9QXBwbGUlMkMlMjB0aGUlMjB3b3JsZCVFMiU4MCU5OX MlMjBsZWFkaW5nJTIwbWFudWZhY3R1cmVyJTIwb2YlMjBjb25z dW1lciUyMGVsZWN0cm9uaWNzLHNwYW5uZWQlMjAxMiUyMG1vbn RocyUyMGVuZGluZyUyMG9uJTIwU2VwdGVtYmVyJTIwMzAlMkMl MjAyMDIzLg&ntb=1)


https://sawmillcreek.org/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABAAAAAQCAYAAAA f8/9hAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZ cwAADsIAAA7CARUoSoAAAAKASURBVDhPhZNdS1RRFIaXo5BQ0E omyhSx69KGz0zao6mo2YzZ5xJMKkbLST8yCitjIwiiSQp6EKSJ AjUoiAUgsqLSAiErCDIwH5BXnnEYvbbu/cZRyijgcXeZ1jr2e/6EmkK/JCY3 G5IvX7HanKcaS2wLXD bRcR2q05fFO0z7aNxbg6V8mQAf7IY3Fytt9HM23 nHg7AkUdLWg/OJp1F/rQWiwC5WXO3CI37s7YpCwTxECifpXCbBWeFHSUJTI725Vt58/Vs7amgJ/0/NzqnNsRA1OPVSTb1 Z/8ZnZ5RUexMEKMatuAqiVNBESF0h0oNZ Pz9m/ZFA18U3w54avIggV3oHbuDyXevwbSUxMp0jCNiJ1OIWiRayLBL sbD01QUMdoO1QHq8AnK0GNuOFCF0vZfpHnRTaGIdDEUDbAIipf CEffi4tGgA9Vc79Ws6Z2xvDsLX1w7KZ2DZJgCtQAMiJSmAzQJK dQ4hXvSMDmNkegrsEjxu/skUNgEsJAHzi19w98UEns29Md/nH90nIPs/gPCGgtbhK0gncGu8HKMzT6lgElKZlQRY/1awDqgbOGMkS6gAe9rCGJh4YO5pfysgLaVgo4imCywiA5BmW9g SK9d kAh9bQJ0B1MKdBfolEHIn23UAGF7heoMQPumFNh6pk0 SkKF8FTuxad1Bf2nOEg7kaad3UCeycdSAD2OOqfG4kRuZ4saej KuVn/9NGP78sN7Fb/ZpzLjFUrCJVqha5HShEk5yjUww6DHksu079xJtN 7geClDvgvtCE21IcWdiLzGCeRqZlX1xW4hecyRbmSLiS5ztnu6 tZylau8rkUsXSeHge6pXza1s5Z/A8M18zEIZpYlAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC






www.forrester.com/blogs/apple-sales-and-profits-analysis-for-fy-2023-top-10-ins…

Which led to $96.99B in "net income". And flipping the napkin over, 25.3% margins. Is that greedy?

[Malcolm McLeod]

... propaganda because they believe they are being deceived by an evil movement to destroy America. ...

Is Big Oil evil? Run by the Devil himself? All 1.5M-ish US O&G workers are mindless automatons, not to mention the shareholders? Deluded by the clearly sustainable business model of destroying the planet and killing all of their customers? Or maybe they all just bought in?

Perhaps that propaganda boulevard is a 2-way street.
****************
ETA - Almost forgot this:

They simply let high demand and low supply create a spike in prices.
My company punched as many new holes in the ground as the BLM in NM would permit.
****************
ETA2 - Since you edited as well:

...So, US oil companies let the high prices ride for a while, THEN they slowly started to increase production until the US became the world's largest producer of petroleum.
I'm on the pointy end of this particular stick, and I'm afraid you would be wrong on this point. There has been nothing slow about the last 4 years. An oil well cannot be simply stopped and re-started at will. Once shut-in, many will never recover; they are plugged and abandoned. Others are P&A'd due to contractual issues (produce-it-or-lose-it, basically, and Uncle Sugar is the landowner). Some will require artificial lift - and all of the supporting infrastructure - to restore flow. And then consider that a given well's yield is ever-diminishing; you have to drill another one in another spot - and provide the infrastructure to collect its production ....if policy makers will issue the permit. BLM's back log of permit applications in Delaware Basin was 55,000 last time I heard. Policy, I guess.

Come spend a day in the desert with me; happy to shed some light.

[Lee DeRaud]

In my lifetime, nothing has ever gone down in price.
How about the computer you're using to access this forum?

[Malcolm Schweizer]

The air was free. Use of the machine, well... ;)

Slightly off topic, but this reminds me of Bomba Shack in Tortola. They would
sell mushroom tea every full moon. Mushroom tea isn’t illegal, but it is illegal to sell it. They gave the tea away, but they charged for the cup. I never partook, but I did provide ferry service for friends that wanted to go.

[Pat Germain]

Is Big Oil evil? Run by the Devil himself? All 1.5M-ish US O&G workers are mindless automatons, not to mention the shareholders? Deluded by the clearly sustainable business model of destroying the planet and killing all of their customers? Or maybe they all just bought in?

Perhaps that propaganda boulevard is a 2-way street.
****************
ETA - Almost forgot this:

My company punched as many new holes in the ground as the BLM in NM would permit.
****************
ETA2 - Since you edited as well:

I'm on the pointy end of this particular stick, and I'm afraid you would be wrong on this point. There has been nothing slow about the last 4 years. An oil well cannot be simply stopped and re-started at will. Once shut-in, many will never recover; they are plugged and abandoned. Others are P&A'd due to contractual issues (produce-it-or-lose-it, basically, and Uncle Sugar is the landowner). Some will require artificial lift - and all of the supporting infrastructure - to restore flow. And then consider that a given well's yield is ever-diminishing; you have to drill another one in another spot - and provide the infrastructure to collect its production ....if policy makers will issue the permit. BLM's back log of permit applications in Delaware Basin was 55,000 last time I heard. Policy, I guess.

Come spend a day in the desert with me; happy to shed some light.

I'm really not sure what you're getting at. I used to live in Oklahoma and I knew a lot of oil field workers. No, I don't think they are evil. And I don't think oil company executives are evil, but as I said, they do tend to be villains. I don't pretend to have an intimate knowledge of oil well operations on teh ground, but I stand by everything I wrote. OPEC and US oil companies can and do decide how much oil they are going to produce. When I say "US Oil Companies", I'm talking about the big dogs and not the small companies.

[Malcolm McLeod]

I'm really not sure what you're getting at. ... When I say "US Oil Companies", I'm talking about the big dogs and not the small companies.

I work for a big dog. I know your 'villains' personally. Good people. Smart people. Damn smart. We are all proud to meet the world's energy needs. All 7B of 'em. Or is it 8B now? ...Is that 9B I see on the horizon?

Getting at: There was no 'slow walk'. Ever. We shut-in when there was no place left to stack the oil. It was crystal clear to management that the recovery was going to be a proverbial house-fire, so we spent >$1B in TX/NM in 1 year to recover; only the BLM, the time required to drill and move a rig, and exhaustion slowed us down.

Happy even to point out the small dogs who will do nearly anything to be big dogs. Including refusal to collude on production cuts.

Trust me, there are enough US small dogs to ensure the big dogs don't monopolize the market. OPEC has tried several times to drive these pups out of business: OPEC ups production which puts independents in a cash bind (high production costs>>low revenue>>no reserves>>bankrupt). Their only success in recent memory is BOPCO (~12-13yrs ago?). Most independents have gotten wise to the strategy.

Offer stands. Come see me. I'll drive you around and point at the facts; no need for internet links to biased interpretations and someone's propaganda. I'll even show you the drill rigs that 'policy' says aren't there. I'd really like for you to get it.

[Pat Germain]

I work for a big dog. I know your 'villains' personally. Good people. Smart people. Damn smart. We are all proud to meet the world's energy needs. All 7B of 'em. Or is it 8B now? ...Is that 9B I see on the horizon?

Getting at: There was no 'slow walk'. Ever. We shut-in when there was no place left to stack the oil. It was crystal clear to management that the recovery was going to be a proverbial house-fire, so we spent >$1B in TX/NM in 1 year to recover; only the BLM, the time required to drill and move a rig, and exhaustion slowed us down.

Happy even to point out the small dogs who will do nearly anything to be big dogs. Including refusal to collude on production cuts.

Trust me, there are enough US small dogs to ensure the big dogs don't monopolize the market. OPEC has tried several times to drive these pups out of business: OPEC ups production which puts independents in a cash bind (high production costs>>low revenue>>no reserves>>bankrupt). Their only success in recent memory is BOPCO (~12-13yrs ago?). Most independents have gotten wise to the strategy.

Offer stands. Come see me. I'll drive you around and point at the facts; no need for internet links to biased interpretations and someone's propaganda. I'll even show you the drill rigs that 'policy' says aren't there. I'd really like for you to get it.

Thank you for the offer, but I don't think the logistics will work out. :)

I'm not disagreeing with anything you posted above. But again, I stand by my statement: Big oil companies are villains for spending tens of millions of dollars over the past few decades to deliberately mislead people with exaggeration, misinformation and outright lies. I don't think this contradicts anything you have written. And, oh yeah, if you're in any room with oil company people, they are the smartest people in the room. I completely agree.

[Malcolm McLeod]

Thank you for the offer, but I don't think the logistics will work out. :)
Surprise, surprise. I tried.


I'm not disagreeing with anything you posted above.
...and yet this is where you started. So, I'll take this as a tiny win for reality.


... villains for spending tens of millions of dollars over the past few decades to deliberately mislead people with exaggeration, misinformation and outright lies.
I left this one alone until now to keep from laughing.

Good thing no one has done this to Big Oil. You know.... like there is no fracking exaggeration, no 300mpg technology suppression misinformation, no outright lies and fraud on groundwater contamination, no internet forum myths. And no one in PA has ever drilled a hole in a crude pipeline then reported the evil 'spill' to the EPA, all while they were on security cameras. ...Right?? Right. ROFLMAO

EVs? Gotta keep O&G prices up, but down just enough to discourage switch to EVs?
Imagine that! Competition! Really good thing this has never happened before. Right?
Except the same dilemma has existed since the Model T. Even the villains know it is in no ones best interest to keep prices high: prior to EVs, if gasoline prices got too high, people simply quit driving. Rode bikes. Soda sales plunged. Huge drag on the economy. Big Oil went broke. Then who would make gear oil for wind turbines, skins for solar cells, straws, fertilizer, Crocs, performance fabrics for The North Face, or elastic for my lacy delicates? Terrible horrible very bad no good. Best we not go there. Teehee.

Yep. A sundown industry. Enjoy. Out.

[Warren Lake]

no cell phone and only buy old cars and rust proof them. this one when it got tires its 21 years old guy said it was the most solid Saturn hes ever lifted. Lucky it was rust proofed before i got it by Krown but not well enough. Fortunately the mileage was pretty low so the most use is from me. If you want it done well you need to do it yourself and it takes time and is no fun. I do the truck each year and then dont drive it in the winter. Its 50 years old, the wally wagons the 92 is very solid rust proofed it from when I got it but its lots of time and product still I see cars like you talk about all the time rusted out which is pathetic really. I used to lose all my cars to rust and that stopped totally once I built a rig and did it myself. I built the rig and built the wands and go into all the holes and soak it. Just use Fluid Film. Lanolin stuff from Sheep. Wish my hoist was set up to power wash after the winter and start again as I have so much road build up in the rust proof like to remove it and start fresh.

[Doug Garson]

How about the computer you're using to access this forum?
Or big screen UHD TVs, or hard drive storage mediums. If you stop and think there are a at least a few things that have gone down in price over the last few decades.

[Doug Garson]

They are villains in some ways. During recent lockdowns, demand for petroleum plummeted and so did petroleum prices. Of course, oil companies halted production big time and laid off many thousands. When demand started to increase, oil companies didn't increase production. They simply let high demand and low supply create a spike in prices. Then they sat back and reaped record profits while people tended to blame a certain politician for high gas prices.

As oil prices go higher, the incentive for alternate energy sources increases as well. So, US oil companies let the high prices ride for a while, THEN they slowly started to increase production until the US became the world's largest producer of petroleum.

US oil companies know the end of petroleum energy for most everything is coming. In fact, they are paradoxically investing in renewable energy while simultaneously spending tens of millions of dollars on misinformation campaigns. If you see people on TV telling us climate change is a hoax, those people invariably work for some "non-profit" funded by oil companies. If you see articles online or in print ridiculing the green energy industry, those articles were paid for by oil companies. If you see memes about how electric vehicles die in the cold and burst into flames, those were created and perpetuated by oil companies. (Sure, there is some truth to this, but oil companies exaggerate and perpetuate it while conveniently not mentioning that ICE vehicles also die in the cold and burst into flames.) Everyday people embrace all this misinformation and propaganda because they believe they are being deceived by an evil movement to destroy America. (At least that's what they tell me. And this is all very similar to tobacco companies creating and perpetuating information in the 70s and 80s about how there's no proof smoking causes cancer.)

Sure, OPEC is also a very big factor in global petroleum prices, but US oil companies can also push prices either way if they want; and they do.
Agreed, anyone who downplays the severity of global climate change to protect their own future profits is a villain. Look no further than the province of Alberta, probably the most right wing province in Canada and our biggest O&G producer, declared the wild fire season started on March 1st this year, historically it was April 1st.

[Doug Garson]

Not sure " Frito-Lay party size snacks " would be considered non discretionary. :cool: I agree though that much of current inflation is corporate greed not increased costs of production and delivery.
This is the post that diverted the thread into a discussion on big oil. Note there is no reference to big oil. Two post later someone is linking it to big oil. Was it Shakespeare who said "methinks the lady duth protest too much?"

[Dave Zellers]

This is easily the most interesting/important discussion I've ever read on SMC. For the record, I align with Malcolm. The transition away from oil and gas dominance is important, cleaning the air is vital, but we are moving too fast. It's more political than logical. People have to heat their homes. I have a hunch fossil fuels will be with us for a very long time, if not forever. Introducing viable alternatives is great and should be encouraged of course. The more diverse our energy supply is, the more robust it is. Things happen. A huge solar farm in Texas was just wiped out by a hail storm. Until that can be rebuilt, alternatives are needed to make up that loss of power.

[Doug Garson]

This is easily the most interesting/important discussion I've ever read on SMC. For the record, I align with Malcolm. The transition away from oil and gas dominance is important, cleaning the air is vital, but we are moving too fast. It's more political than logical. People have to heat their homes. I have a hunch fossil fuels will be with us for a very long time, if not forever. Introducing viable alternatives is great and should be encouraged of course. The more diverse our energy supply is, the more robust it is. Things happen. A huge solar farm in Texas was just wiped out by a hail storm. Until that can be rebuilt, alternatives are needed to make up that loss of power.
What, in your opinion, are signs that we are moving too fast?

Here are a few signs that we are not. The hottest 10 years on record for world temperatures are the last 8 years, yes only 8 because of ties. That hail storm you referred to was a sign of more severe weather events as a result of climate change. Another thread on this forum discusses increases in home insurance, higher rates are driven in large part by increases in severe weather events.

[Pat Germain]

Surprise, surprise. I tried.


...and yet this is where you started. So, I'll take this as a tiny win for reality.


I left this one alone until now to keep from laughing.

Good thing no one has done this to Big Oil. You know.... like there is no fracking exaggeration, no 300mpg technology suppression misinformation, no outright lies and fraud on groundwater contamination, no internet forum myths. And no one in PA has ever drilled a hole in a crude pipeline then reported the evil 'spill' to the EPA, all while they were on security cameras. ...Right?? Right. ROFLMAO

EVs? Gotta keep O&G prices up, but down just enough to discourage switch to EVs?
Imagine that! Competition! Really good thing this has never happened before. Right?
Except the same dilemma has existed since the Model T. Even the villains know it is in no ones best interest to keep prices high: prior to EVs, if gasoline prices got too high, people simply quit driving. Rode bikes. Soda sales plunged. Huge drag on the economy. Big Oil went broke. Then who would make gear oil for wind turbines, skins for solar cells, straws, fertilizer, Crocs, performance fabrics for The North Face, or elastic for my lacy delicates? Terrible horrible very bad no good. Best we not go there. Teehee.

Yep. A sundown industry. Enjoy. Out.

To be clear, I know the planet depends heavily on petroleum; energy, plastics, synthetic rubber, lubricants and so on. That's why petroleum prices are a big part of inflation. And again we agree that oil prices can't stay too high or it has a negative affect on profits.

Sure, oil companies have been unfairly accused of things they didn't do. But they definitely, most absolutely, without question spend money on misinformation campaigns. This is not my opinion. Laughing at something doesn't make it false. Ironically, it was oil company scientists who first figured out burning fossil fuels is affecting the climate.

[Ronald Blue]

What, in your opinion, are signs that we are moving too fast?

Here are a few signs that we are not. The hottest 10 years on record for world temperatures are the last 8 years, yes only 8 because of ties. That hail storm you referred to was a sign of more severe weather events as a result of climate change. Another thread on this forum discusses increases in home insurance, higher rates are driven in large part by increases in severe weather events.

Since you live North of the border you probably wouldn't know this. But there have been hail storms for as long as I can remember and I'm 66. Golf ball, baseball, even softball sized hail while not common occurrences has been associated with severe weather for years. With solar farms becoming common place it's only to be expected that hail will strike one or more of these installations. They build more of them in the southern regions for the added sunshine which is also where more severe weather happens. Going green is fine. When the government decides when it will happen is when it becomes a snafu. I know Canada already drew the line in the sand for motor vehicles and it appears we are going to do the same only quicker now. They are saying 2032. So sitting in an office far removed from reality people are deciding that the ICE will no longer meet new emission standards. Based on where current EV prices are there are people who won't be able to afford an EV. Volumes have gotten high enough to show that will probably not impact prices by much. Used vehicle prices will spike I'm sure. That doesn't even touch on whether the electric grid can possibly come close to charging 15.5 million vehicles. That's how many cars and light trucks were sold in the US last year. Anyway it's all speculation until it happens.

[Brian Elfert]

In my lifetime, nothing has ever gone down in price. I remember gas for 30 cents a gallon. I'm not sure what the point of this thread is.

My point is prices are still going up faster than they have about any time in my adult lifetime. My income has not gone up anywhere near the rate of inflation since 2019.

[Malcolm McLeod]

... This doesn't make them villains, ...


.. is a villain. ...
mmmm "Methinks the gentleman dost lack consistency of thought. And perhapseth a grandiosity of shame for a lifetime of fossil fuelethed boiler building?" -Shakespeare??? ...Nah. Probably not.



...
Sure, oil companies have been unfairly accused of things they didn't do. But they definitely, most absolutely, without question spend money on misinformation campaigns. This is not my opinion. Laughing at something doesn't make it false. Ironically, it was oil company scientists who first figured out burning fossil fuels is affecting the climate.
Pardon, your hypocrisy is showing.

If you don't like fossil fuels, simply don't use them or their derivatives. This includes the keyboard you are typing on.;) It will help moderate inflation as well.

[Lee DeRaud]

My point is prices are still going up faster than they have about any time in my adult lifetime.
So you're not old enough to remember the 1970-1980s. That, sir, was serious inflation.

My income has not gone up anywhere near the rate of inflation since 2019.
That's a problem for a lot of people, going back well before 2019, but it really wasn't what you asked about when you started this thread.

[Pat Germain]

mmmm "Methinks the gentleman dost lack consistency of thought. And perhapseth a grandiosity of shame for a lifetime of fossil fuelethed boiler building?" -Shakespeare??? ...Nah. Probably not.

Pardon, your hypocrisy is showing.

If you don't like fossil fuels, simply don't use them or their derivatives. This includes the keyboard you are typing on.;) It will help moderate inflation as well.

This is funny because I actually really like fossil fuels. I own a classic car with a 351 Cleveland and a 750 double-pumper on top. It burns premium. Now, some might say it's hypocritical to talk about climate change while driving a muscle car. But my classic car spends the vast majority of its time parked in the garage. It's a simple fact that burning fossil fuels is negatively affecting the climate and influencing economic inflation. How I feel about it is irrelevant. Moving to renewable energy is a good thing and as electric vehicles become more practical and inexpensive, I will eventually buy one.

I welcome your insight as a petroleum professional, but you keep arguing points which have nothing to do with what I'm saying. Sure, increasing capacity is complicated and difficult, but oil companies can still control how much they produce. You would know first hand that everything oil companies do daily is difficult and complicated.

[Doug Garson]

mmmm "Methinks the gentleman dost lack consistency of thought. And perhapseth a grandiosity of shame for a lifetime of fossil fuelethed boiler building?" -Shakespeare??? ...Nah. Probably not.



Pardon, your hypocrisy is showing.

If you don't like fossil fuels, simply don't use them or their derivatives. This includes the keyboard you are typing on.;) It will help moderate inflation as well.

No, my statements weren't hypocritical, your taking single words out of context distorts what was said. I said "Demand for gasoline is still increasing but not forever and a lot of production facilities were cut back during the pandemic and I believe companies are hesitant to make large investments to increase production knowing they may not get a return on their investment as demand falls off in the not to distant future. This doesn't make them villains, they have a responsibility to their investors to maximize profits not responsibility to the public to keep prices down."
and later I said "Agreed, anyone who downplays the severity of global climate change to protect their own future profits is a villain."

I don't call that hypocrisy, I'll let you define what your editing of my posts is. Based on our past discussions on this, I thought you were better than that.

[Malcolm McLeod]

No, my statements weren't hypocritical, ...
This was not directed at you.

[Warren Lake]

Pat not to sidetrack have some of the same L46 11:1 and two things with 410 and 411 gears. have you looked at the endless you tubes of converting old to Electric. Its growing constantly. My car friends are dissapointed I even look at that stuff but from first time seeing the white zombie or the 1000 HP mustang i wanted to at least drop in and watch the progression from time to time. now it doesnt matter what old car you have it can be electric. Unaffordable at first it continues to come down more and more. you can order a kit for some cars now direct bolt in now modify no damage turn your 911 back to how it was at anytime.

Id miss the sound and old school feel.

Okay back to whatever we were arguing about :)

[Malcolm McLeod]

I knew better than to include my last paragraph. Que sera.
I'll make it simpler and try again...

...
Sure, oil companies have been unfairly accused of things they didn't do. But they definitely, most absolutely, without question spend money on misinformation campaigns.
Your hypocrisy is showing. ^Here.^ 2 Sentences. Plain as day.


... but oil companies can still control how much they produce. ...
Certainly they can. And they can certainly go bankrupt.

And you just as certainly fail to grasp - or accept, since this about my 3rd repetition of this - is that what one company can cut, another can increase - and gladly will - to meet current market demands. Big vs small doesn't even play into it, and collusion is illegal anyway.

You clearly resent oil companies' behavior. Don't patronize them.

[Doug Garson]

This was not directed at you.

OK I see that now but what about saying there was a lack of consistency of thought in my two uses of the word villain?

[Nicholas Lawrence]

I welcome your insight as a petroleum professional, but you keep arguing points which have nothing to do with what I'm saying. Sure, increasing capacity is complicated and difficult, but oil companies can still control how much they produce. You would know first hand that everything oil companies do daily is difficult and complicated.

The US produced more oil last year than any country ever.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545

The groups trying to reduce production and increase prices are not oil companies.

[Pat Germain]

The US produced more oil last year than any country ever.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545

The groups trying to reduce production and increase prices are not oil companies.

I made that exact point about production in an earlier post.

I never said oil companies are trying to reduce production. Rather, I'm saying they simply took their time increasing production as post-lock-down demand increased which increased prices and thus generated record profits.

I also posted multiple times that oil companies know they can keep prices high only so long because it creates incentive for renewable energy.

[Dave Zellers]

What, in your opinion, are signs that we are moving too fast?

Here are a few signs that we are not. The hottest 10 years on record for world temperatures are the last 8 years, yes only 8 because of ties. That hail storm you referred to was a sign of more severe weather events as a result of climate change. Another thread on this forum discusses increases in home insurance, higher rates are driven in large part by increases in severe weather events.

Oh come on now, everything that happens that we don't like is not a result of global warming. Destructive hail storms have been part of our weather forever and insurance costs are increasing along with everything else during this inflationary period. We were told with great certainty that hurricanes would increase in frequency and intensity. Didn't happen.

[Doug Garson]

Oh come on now, everything that happens that we don't like is not a result of global warming. Destructive hail storms have been part of our weather forever and insurance costs are increasing along with everything else during this inflationary period. We were told with great certainty that hurricanes would increase in frequency and intensity. Didn't happen.
Seems NASA disagrees with you:
"Severe storms are becoming more intense due to global warming, and hailstorms, a type of severe storm, can be more damaging than hurricanes. A NASA project is creating better ways to predict these unusual weather events.
Hailstorms are much more likely to form than tornadoes and are among the most expensive weather events in the U.S., often causing more damage than hurricanes, and computer models predict that due to warming temperatures, severe storms will become more intense."
https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/weather-atmosphere/smashing-new-maps-of-hailstorms/

As does the insurance industry:
"The president of one of the world’s largest insurance brokers warned Wednesday that climate change is destabilizing the insurance industry, driving up prices and pushing insurers out of high-risk markets."
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-is-destabilizing-insurance-industry/




While everything we don't like may not be a result of climate change, the frequency and intensity of things we don't like is increasing due to climate change.

[Dave Zellers]

Seems NASA disagrees with you:

Not at all surprised. Every single agency that is funded by the government takes that position. Easy money.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-climate-scaremongers-hurricanes-arent-getting-more-frequent/

Isn't Miami supposed to be under water by now? All I am saying regarding all this is the hyperbole is THICK. And facts are being manipulated, ignored and even fabricated. There is no need for all the hysteria. Chart a sane course to reduce fossil fuels over the next few decades to ease the burden on those of moderate means.

[Pat Germain]

Oh come on now, everything that happens that we don't like is not a result of global warming. Destructive hail storms have been part of our weather forever and insurance costs are increasing along with everything else during this inflationary period. We were told with great certainty that hurricanes would increase in frequency and intensity. Didn't happen.

The propaganda works. People think it's every government and every actual scientist who are lying.

[Dave Zellers]

Not lying. Exaggerating.

[Doug Garson]

Not at all surprised. Every single agency that is funded by the government takes that position. Easy money.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-climate-scaremongers-hurricanes-arent-getting-more-frequent/

Isn't Miami supposed to be under water by now? All I am saying regarding all this is the hyperbole is THICK. And facts are being manipulated, ignored and even fabricated. There is no need for all the hysteria. Chart a sane course to reduce fossil fuels over the next few decades to ease the burden on those of moderate means.
I guess it depends on who you choose to listen to. By their own words the Conservative Woman is "counter-cultural offensive against the forces of Leftism, feminism and modernism – against the left-liberal cultural zeitgeist, to counter its anti-family, authoritarian identity politics and ‘equality and diversity’ ideology which had swept through the country’s institutions." Not one mention that I saw about being guided by the science. On the other hand,The Environmental Defence Fund, by their owns words is "Guided by science and economics, and committed to climate justice, we work in the places, on the projects and with the people that can make the biggest difference."
According to the Environmental Defence Fund "Stronger hurricanes are becoming more common in a warmer climate. Researchers suggest that the most damaging U.S. hurricanes are three times more frequent than 100 years ago, and that the proportion of major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) in the Atlantic Ocean has doubled since 1980."
https://www.edf.org/climate/how-climate-change-makes-hurricanes-more-destructive#:~:text=Stronger%20hurricanes%20are%20 becoming%20more,Ocean%20has%20doubled%20since%2019 80.

And yes we need to chart a sane course towards reduction in fossil fuel use but not one lead by groups like the Conservative Woman, more like NASA or the Environmental Defence Fund and I think the timeline has to be less than the next few decades, that would have worked if we started a few decades ago.

[Dave Zellers]

I guess it depends on who you choose to listen to.

Totally agree. I was only interested in the charts provided and points made. I know nothing about TCW. But I do know it is extremely important to pay attention to opposing viewpoints. Today, everyone has taken sides and completely dismisses any arguments that come from outside their camp.

It seems quite logical that hurricane data historically consists of named storms and today we have skewed the data by naming many more storms.

[Lee DeRaud]

It seems quite logical that hurricane data historically consists of named storms and today we have skewed the data by naming many more storms.
Have a cite for that? (I'm finding lots of stuff about how names are picked, not so much about what qualifies a storm for naming.)

It seems quite logical that "historically" (prior to weather satellites) a named storm would only be one that made landfall or at least got into shipping lanes: you don't name a storm you never saw. But that still allows a pretty accurate count over the last 50+ years.

(Of course one obvious possibility for naming more storms today is that, well, there are actually more of them.)

[Doug Garson]

Totally agree. I was only interested in the charts provided and points made. I know nothing about TCW. But I do know it is extremely important to pay attention to opposing viewpoints. Today, everyone has taken sides and completely dismisses any arguments that come from outside their camp.

It seems quite logical that hurricane data historically consists of named storms and today we have skewed the data by naming many more storms.
I tend to look at the credentials and mission statements of groups before I look at what they post. NASA put a man on the moon, seems like they would do their homework and apply the science on climate change before making any statements or predictions.

[Dave Zellers]

Have a cite for that?

Geeze. I included it in the above post. We have satellites that see every storm now. Many (most?) of them fizzle out. But it gets a name when in the past few would have even been aware of it.

[Dave Zellers]

I tend to look at the credentials and mission statements of groups before I look at what they post.

That was my point about taking sides. Just because you disagree with their mission statement doesn't mean they do not have valid points to make.

Everyone seems to have chosen a side. The result is: "I'm right, and you're stupid". Data that should be analyzed is instead ignored.

[Dave Zellers]

Man made climate change should be taken seriously. It is not. It has been completely politicized and as a result serious scientists who have data that might challenge the status quo stay silent for fear of being canceled. As Nancy Pelosi said "The science is settled" Science is never settled.

[Dave Zellers]

OK. I'll stop now. :rolleyes:

[Doug Garson]

Not sure citing a group that describes themselves as "counter-cultural offensive against the forces of Leftism, feminism and modernism.... " is taking climate change seriously. How about citing a serious scientific body to support your position that we are moving too fast on climate change?

[Dave Zellers]

How about citing a serious scientific body to support your position that we are moving too fast on climate change?

I might be the only person on the planet who thinks that. It's still my view.

[Lee DeRaud]

We have satellites that see every storm now. Many (most?) of them fizzle out. But it gets a name when in the past few would have even been aware of it.

That is pretty much exactly what I said in the portion you redacted. If you don't want to compare current data to historical data, don't. But there are decades of current (i.e. satellite) data available for analysis, not to mention trivially simple ways to resolve conflicts in data collection methods for older data.

(Hint: the mere number of named storms is not a factor in any meaningful analysis of trends in hurricane number/strength.)

[Dave Zellers]

That is pretty much exactly what I said in the portion you redacted.

Yep. I see that. My bad. I fall victim to that which I criticize. Too much multi-tasking on my end. I'm at the same time learning how to grow potatoes in pots.:p

[Doug Garson]

Yep. I see that. My bad. I fall victim to that which I criticize. Too much multi-tasking on my end. I'm at the same time learning how to grow potatoes in pots.:p
I give you credit given for admitting your mistake, too many are incapable of doing that. Never tried growing potatoes in or out of a pot.

[Dave Zellers]

(Hint: the mere number of named storms is not a factor in any meaningful analysis of trends in hurricane number/strength.)

I will take your word that is true but I constantly see articles in the media with the phrase "More named storms than ever in the history of record keeping" There is a battle going on now between the right and left and truth be damned.

Sorry, I said I'd stop droning on and on.

[Dave Zellers]

Never tried growing potatoes in or out of a pot.

Oh man- it's subtle but spuds fresh out of the ground are awesome.

Hey- maybe I can turn this thing into a gardening thread.

[Doug Garson]

Oh man- it's subtle but spuds fresh out of the ground are awesome.

Hey- maybe I can turn this thing into a gardening thread.

Really getting off topic but hey, why not. When I was a kid we rented a cottage in Port Elgin Ontario that backed on to a farm. The field behind us was a potato field and the farmer had harvested the crop mechanically which left lot's of small potatoes behind. We went out and picked a few dozen and yes, much better fresh out of the ground.

[Dave Zellers]

Allrightythen! My BIL lives on 26 acres right next to a corn farmer in Ohio. Every year, as soon as they have harvested the field they let my BIL know to come in and help themselves to the edges which for them is an endless supply of fresh corn for weeks. Heaven. Growing potatoes in large pots or fabric bags is the latest thing. I have high hopes for this year.