Future infrastructure for residential electric service?

[Stephen Tashiro]

The recent thread on electric vehicles brings up questions about future infrastructure for residential electric service ( power lines, transformers, etc.) Will a future home need 500 AMP service? Can contemporary power poles safely hold the power lines and transformers that can supply that much power to whole neighborhoods?

[Edward Weber]

Short answer is yes, standard 200a service is not nearly enough for todays electrified world
JMO

[Cameron Wood]

No. 200 amp service is not generally needed and was discouraged for a time but is appropriate if natural gas is not used. Many electrical loads, especially lighting, but even heating, are less from improved efficiency.
What is needed are much larger breaker panels due to the many special circuit breakers now required.

[George Yetka]

Non-alternative power plants are what are needed. Nuclear

[Jimmy Harris]

Only about 20% of the power from the US electrical grid is used by residential homes and apartments. It's the commercial sector that commands most of the power from the grid.

The trend in modern residential usage is going downward due to everything becoming more efficient. The things that are really taxing the grid right now are old factories, data centers, crypto miners, and stuff like that. There are crypto mining centers that have dedicated power plants that only service that one data center, like in Seneca Lake NY, North Towanda NY, Kennerdell PA, Russellton PA and many, many other places.

[Stan Calow]

I read that 25% of the electricity generated in California is used to pump water and sewage.

[mike stenson]

I'd settle for simply maintaining the infrastructure we have ;) All of it has been ignored for about 40 years.

[Pat Germain]

I read that 25% of the electricity generated in California is used to pump water and sewage.

This also includes heating water. Paradoxically, power plants make hot water to generate electricity so people can make hot water.

Almost everyone I talk to about how nuclear power works is genuinely surprised the reactor does nothing more than make hot water. Even on submarines and aircraft carriers. :)

[Stephen Tashiro]

Only about 20% of the power from the US electrical grid is used by residential homes and apartments. It's the commercial sector that commands most of the power from the grid.


What will happen to the nation's grid is important, but I'm wondering what happens at a local level - power lines along streets in towns. Local infrastructure demands go according to number of voters wanting the electricity, not the amount of power they use. Real estate agents and investors tend to be politically active.



The trend in modern residential usage is going downward due to everything becoming more efficient.


I agree and this may continue if policies and technology keep electric power prices from dropping. However, if future technology and public policy (like fusion, restrictions on hydrocarbons, improved solar etc.) make electric power cheaper than other sources, there will be increased residential demand for power. People will do things with electric power that they never dreamed of doing before. (Most people still don't drive electric cars. What happens if that becomes the norm?)

[Doug Garson]

This also includes heating water. Paradoxically, power plants make hot water to generate electricity so people can make hot water.

Almost everyone I talk to about how nuclear power works is genuinely surprised the reactor does nothing more than make hot water. Even on submarines and aircraft carriers. :)
Actually not quite true, "Nuclear power reactors use heat produced during atomic fission to boil water and produce pressurized steam. The steam is routed through the reactor steam system to spin large turbines blades that drive magnetic generators to produce electricity."
The nuclear reactor replaces the coal fired boiler in a conventional fossil fuel power plant. There are some differences but essentially the process for using the steam to drive the turbine is the same for both nuclear and fossil fuel power plants.

[Pat Germain]

Actually not quite true, "Nuclear power reactors use heat produced during atomic fission to boil water and produce pressurized steam. The steam is routed through the reactor steam system to spin large turbines blades that drive magnetic generators to produce electricity."
The nuclear reactor replaces the coal fired boiler in a conventional fossil fuel power plant. There are some differences but essentially the process for using the steam to drive the turbine is the same for both nuclear and fossil fuel power plants.

What is steam but hot water? (Nuclear-powered aircraft carrier veteran.)

Technically, the reactor water doesn't boil. Boiling is the last thing you want. It's under pressure so it doesn't boil.

The Soviets used a liquid metal reactor in one of their submarines. But even that was used to make hot water/steam.

Correction: OK, I've learned some commercial nuclear reactors boil the water in the reactor side. And yeah, the steam is made on the turbine side by boiling water.

[Jimmy Harris]

The effect electric cars will have on the power grid is negligible. First, they don't use that much power. Second, they're typically charged during off peak hours. Thirdly, everyone I know who owns an electric vehicle also has solar panels on their roof. And a lot of people who don't drive EV's are getting solar panels installed. In fact, it's gotten so bad that many places are charging customers for switching to solar, or at least preventing them from getting paid when they give back to the grid, to keep prices up while income flow from the residential sector decreases. This is also partly why electric bills have been increasing in recent years. Less people paying in means you have to charge more per kWh to those who are left to maintain the same income.

The reason we're having all of these grid problems now is because of decades of neglect. We really haven't done a good job of maintaining the grid, preferring instead to keep prices low, and now that bill is becoming due. The problem isn't because of what's happens in the future. The problem is because of what happened in the past. We passed the buck until the buck couldn't be passed any further, and now we all have to pay for it.

I wouldn't worry too much about the politics of it all. The politicians have one job, and that's to get elected. And that's hard to do, no matter how much money the big corporations and special interest groups give you, if the general public doesn't believe you're on their side.

[Edward Weber]

No. 200 amp service is not generally needed and was discouraged for a time but is appropriate if natural gas is not used. Many electrical loads, especially lighting, but even heating, are less from improved efficiency.
What is needed are much larger breaker panels due to the many special circuit breakers now required.
Yes, you're correct. I know my panel is full but not everything is used at once.
On the other hand, everything electronic is typically drawing a small current even when not in use. So the baseline number is no longer just a refrigerator running, it's Tv's, computers and everything else plugged directly into the wall. The rest a is charger for something.
So, even though things may be more efficent, the demand on the service is still high because people use more of it.

[Monte Milanuk]

What is steam but hot water? (Nuclear-powered aircraft carrier veteran.)

Technically, the reactor water doesn't boil. Boiling is the last thing you want. It's under pressure so it doesn't boil.

IIRC it kinda does. So-called nucleate boiling, in the laminar boundary region (nuke submarine guy here). Not the typical rolling boil that most people think of, but still ;)



Correction: OK, I've learned some commercial nuclear reactors boil the water in the reactor side. And yeah, the steam is made on the turbine side by boiling water.

Yeah, did a brief stint at a BWR plant after I got out. The whole steam system was considered 'hot'. That, and hydrogen cooling for an 800 MW generator.... :(

Having been 'raised' in the Navy's PWR world, that just creeped me out :eek:

[Jim Koepke]

I'd settle for simply maintaining the infrastructure we have All of it has been ignored for about 40 years.


The reason we're having all of these grid problems now is because of decades of neglect.

It was about 40 years ago two words, "deferred maintenance" became popular. This took a few years to catch on in the world of utilities.

From my experience in working for a public utility in California a few things were learned. One of them was how the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) adjusted rates. The simple explanation was a utility was able to charge a set percentage above operating costs. This included maintenance.

When electric utility deregulation came to California almost 30 years ago a lot of the maintenance became a drain on the balance sheets. Guess what got cut from the budget to improve profits.

jtk

[mike stenson]

It was about 40 years ago two words, "deferred maintenance" became popular. This took a few years to catch on in the world of utilities.

From my experience in working for a public utility in California a few things were learned. One of them was how the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) adjusted rates. The simple explanation was a utility was able to charge a set percentage above operating costs. This included maintenance.

When electric utility deregulation came to California almost 30 years ago a lot of the maintenance became a drain on the balance sheets. Guess what got cut from the budget to improve profits.

jtk

Yea, the problem with deferred maintenance is that it simply costs more money in the end. In orders of magnitude.

[Monte Milanuk]

about 40 years ago two words, "deferred maintenance" became popular.

...also known as "burn-down" maintenance, around where I worked for a while (public utility in western Nebraska). The idea was it was cheaper to just let things go til something burned down (literally, in some cases) rather than do scheduled maintenance, and maintain the personnel with the training and experience to do so. Luckily the company I worked for was not one of those - they preferred to be able to control the timing of outages as much as possible... but I did plenty of contract work for smaller utilities around us that hadn't figured that out yet.

[George Yetka]

Locally I see a lot of main roads replacing their standard power poles and wire for poles that are 30' taller and carrying a lot more power. Efficiency's are up on most things but with EV's, places like California and NY banning natural gas use, and the push to shut coal and Cogen plant in favor of Green. It may get ugly. A nuke can take 10-25 years to commission so they should start a bunch now.

[roger wiegand]

I think there will be many changes to the grid required, primarily a shift from point generation to distributed generation, not vasty increased central power plants. We'll need bigger and better storage options, preferably deployed locally (a place where a lot of those car batteries that are no longer good enough to be used in a car to be employed for another decade or two?), and much more sophisticated management of a two-way flow of electrons.
I'f I were a VC I'd be all over the small companies that are going to come up with new and interesting ways to solve these problems. I think it's very unlikely that the solutions will come from government or the utility companies, they are all way too fossilized in their thinking.

[Doug Garson]

Yea, the problem with deferred maintenance is that it simply costs more money in the end. In orders of magnitude.
And the guy making the decisions today is trying to maximize profit so he can get his annual bonus, he'll be long gone in twenty years when the sh*t hits the fan.

[Doug Garson]

I think there will be many changes to the grid required, primarily a shift from point generation to distributed generation, not vasty increased central power plants. We'll need bigger and better storage options, preferably deployed locally (a place where a lot of those car batteries that are no longer good enough to be used in a car to be employed for another decade or two?), and much more sophisticated management of a two-way flow of electrons.
I'f I were a VC I'd be all over the small companies that are going to come up with new and interesting ways to solve these problems. I think it's very unlikely that the solutions will come from government or the utility companies, they are all way too fossilized in their thinking.

And this plays well with the move away from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Instead of 500MW coal fired power plants with hundreds of miles of power lines, you can have thousands of houses and office buildings, retail buildings etc with rooftop solar panels feeding a local grid.

[Doug Garson]

What is steam but hot water? (Nuclear-powered aircraft carrier veteran.)

Technically, the reactor water doesn't boil. Boiling is the last thing you want. It's under pressure so it doesn't boil.

The Soviets used a liquid metal reactor in one of their submarines. But even that was used to make hot water/steam.

Correction: OK, I've learned some commercial nuclear reactors boil the water in the reactor side. And yeah, the steam is made on the turbine side by boiling water.

I wasn't aware that navy nuclear reactors were not pressurized, my experience is in steam and power in the fossil utility and industrial side, my nuclear knowledge is limited. There is a big difference between hot water and steam though. At atmospheric pressure water at 212F contains 180 BTUs per pound. To go from 212F water to low pressure steam requires another 970 BTUs per pound. Increasing the pressure increases the temperature of the phase change, and increases the amount of energy the water/steam can carry.

[Monte Milanuk]

I wasn't aware that navy nuclear reactors were not pressurized

They very much are. The main difference is that some (pressurized water reactors, aka PWR) heat water that is then ran thru a boiler to generate steam. Boiling water reactors (BWR) heat the water to create steam directly. It's still happening at greater than standard atmo pressures.

[Doug Garson]

They very much are. The main difference is that some (pressurized water reactors, aka PWR) heat water that is then ran thru a boiler to generate steam. Boiling water reactors (BWR) heat the water to create steam directly. It's still happening at greater than standard atmo pressures.
Sorry, I should have said " don't generate steam, only hot pressurized water".

[Bill Dufour]

Non-alternative power plants are what are needed. Nuclear
My Mom worked at Oak Ridge during ww2 enriching uranium to make the bombs. they used 100% of the electricity from Norris dam run by the TVA. (126 megawatts)The TVA dams is why it was built in Tennessee. They also took a good percentage of power from other dams as well. They also built some enrichment plants in Washington near Grand Coulee dam.
Bill D

[Stan Calow]

It's the very high capital costs that are keeping nuclear plants from being built, not the environmental issues. Utilities cant raise the billions it costs, multiple years in advance. Regulators wont let them raise rates on existing users to pay for it, and the projects are too big to rely on the unstable bond market.

[Brian Elfert]

Yea, the problem with deferred maintenance is that it simply costs more money in the end. In orders of magnitude.

My employer stopped paying for support and upgrades on several IT systems to save cash during the great recession. We wanted to upgrade five or six years later. None of the vendors would simply reinstate support and upgrades without back paying for the five or six years we didn't have support. Most also had a penalty on top of that. It would have cost us less money to simply keep paying for support. In at least one case we bought the product over again because it was less than the penalties for dropping support.

[Malcolm McLeod]

Only about 20% of the power from the US electrical grid is used by residential homes and apartments. It's the commercial sector that commands most of the power from the grid.

... crypto miners, ...

Scatter-shooting....
Commercial usage is very likely going to increase dramatically, as many companies shift from traditional (non-PC?) energy sources to electric. My company is one - and we are busy converting NG powered processes to grid sources. We have such confidence in the 'growth' of the utility grid that we are also busy with a feasibility study for private SMRs to meet our needs. "Green' is going to require a lot of 'green'.

In my operating area, 'crypto' is building server farms as fast as excess power comes online. So, EV owners may very well have to get spendy for PV ownership too. (I mentioned looking at a package like this ...$$$... you can review the contrarian opinions in another (locked) thread.)

Old news, but last report I read, TX has more installed wind power potential than next 3 states combined, but we nearly hit the (power) wall a week or so ago, as the sun inconveniently set and the wind wasn't blowing in the right spots. ...Clearly, no one saw that coming.:confused::eek::confused:

[George Yetka]

I watched a hospital decide water treatment for their heating and cooling systems was a waste couldnt have been more than 30k a year but probably half that. Fast forward 10 years their piping is in desperate need of complete replacement. My guess would be $20 million job. we have been called to trace and replace sections in the past but it costs too much so they switched to non union companies.

[mike stenson]

My employer stopped paying for support and upgrades on several IT systems to save cash during the great recession. We wanted to upgrade five or six years later. None of the vendors would simply reinstate support and upgrades without back paying for the five or six years we didn't have support. Most also had a penalty on top of that. It would have cost us less money to simply keep paying for support. In at least one case we bought the product over again because it was less than the penalties for dropping support.

AKA stepping over a dollar to pick up a dime.

[Stephen Tashiro]

Are their publicly traded companies that manufacture a lot of high tension cables? In searching online, it's surprising (to me) to find so many privately owned ones.

[mike stenson]

And the guy making the decisions today is trying to maximize profit so he can get his annual bonus, he'll be long gone in twenty years when the sh*t hits the fan.

True, and that is bad enough, but it's when government does this with critical infrastructure (roads, bridges, rail, etc) that it's completely reprehensible. Just passing the cost down to the next generation.

[Keith Outten]

I have worked at four PWR's and one BWR reactor plants during both construction and operational phases. I also worked on the replacement steam generators for the Enterprise Aircraft Carrier when the first set of sixteen were replaced. What most people don't understand is the the BWR reactors send radioactive steam from the reactor directly to the steam turbans as Monte referenced above. The US Navy does not use BWR reactors simply because humans cannot live on a ship that has such a radiologically dirty system. I also worked at Surry Power Station (PWR) when we did the first civilian steam generator replacement project and we had plenty of radiation exposure to deal with even though Surry was a PWR. Those who do not know, a Steam Generator is a very big, very expensive dual flow liquid radiator that keeps the radioactive water inside the reactor containment building so that no radioactive material is used in the exterior buildings. There are minor exceptions for systems that are in the auxillary building, mostly systems that filter radioactive waste.

In the early days of nuclear construction projects we made a lot of mistakes that were costly in time and money. Mostly because we were all new to the business and we had no experience building power plants that didn't use coal or oil. The same learning curve would apply once more should we start building nuclear plants again, almost every person who worked in the industry is long gone so we will surely repeat the same mistakes again over the first ten to twenty years. Honestly I doubt we will ever see another nuclear power plant under constrution again, at todays prices the cost would be astronomical times ten.

My very experienced engineering friends who know more about power production and operation told me in the 1980's that hydrogen is the fuel of the future. I still believe that its true although I have no expertise to prove the statement. I do believe that the government is intentionally standing in the way of our conversion to hydrogen power mostly for political reasons.

[Doug Garson]

I think the problem with hydrogen as a fuel is it is not a naturally occurring substance in sufficient quantities to be a major fuel source. There’s virtually no pure hydrogen on Earth because it’s so reactive. Most hydrogen is made from methane [natural gas] in a process that produces carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Hydrogen can also be made from water using electrolysis, but that requires electrical energy. Unless the electrical energy used to produce hydrogen is green, ie wind or solar etc. then hydrogen is not considered green. In a way hydrogen is more like a battery than a fuel, it takes energy to produce (like charging a battery) then you consume it in a fuel cell or combustion engine (like discharging a battery). I think Toyota is the only major car manufacturer that are seriously looking at hydrogen as a fuel source. Here in Vancouver Ballard Power Systems have been in the hydrogen fuel cell business since the 1980's. I think they are profitable but the fuel cell market for transportation has not really taken off as many expected compared to battery powered EVs. I don't think politics has much to do with it.

[Monte Milanuk]

Actually... the neighboring utility is building a hydrogen plant literally right across the road from the hydro dam I work at. They're playing pretty tight to the vest as to the specifics, but my understanding is that they intend to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, similar to what we did in the Navy on submarines, but on a much, much larger scale. That, and where we kept the O2 and disposed of the hydrogen, they'll presumably be keeping both (i'm guessing). Supposedly they're primarily targeting supplying fleet vehicles, which I wasn't really aware there was a pre-existing market for - but again, I'm just seeing the fringes of what they have going on.

[Stan Calow]

True, and that is bad enough, but it's when government does this with critical infrastructure (roads, bridges, rail, etc) that it's completely reprehensible. Just passing the cost down to the next generation.

Yes, that's what the voters want - low taxes, so we can complain later.

[Jim Becker]

I frankly believe that the standard (a minimum by code at this point) 200 amp residential service will be adequate to support both home needs and electric vehicle charging. Why? It's a combination of the things we use in our homes have become more and more efficient electrically and the bigger part of electric vehicle charging is going to be overnight for most folks while they are sleeping. Those overnight hours typically have lower consumption from other household loads and it balances out. I have 400 amp/320 amp meter service to our home, but it's split 50/50 with the house and my shop. The house does fine and our electric bills have been a third to half what we were experiencing at our old property. Here, we're all electric. There we were electric plus natural gas with the electric split done the same way, but pumping septic and running two large HVAC systems. The bills I'm mentioning are just relative to electric. All the lighting here is LED, the appliances are all new and efficient, and the HVAC system is more efficient than the slightly older ones at the previous house.

[mike stenson]

Yes, that's what the voters want - low taxes, so we can complain later.

I think the goal is simply to die before it's a problem. Because it's gonna be a problem.

[Edward Weber]

Supposedly they're primarily targeting supplying fleet vehicles, which I wasn't really aware there was a pre-existing market for - but again, I'm just seeing the fringes of what they have going on.

Fleets are great test beds for all kinds of tech, from engines to suspension. tires and on and on.
Out here in CA, just about every fleet in involved in some form of testing, some hydrogen.
https://www.globalfleet.com/en/technology-and-innovation/global/features/toyota-fires-truck-fleets-california-hydrogen?t%5B0%5D=Toyota&t%5B1%5D=Hydrogen&curl=1
https://www.greenfleetmagazine.com/10197943/kenworth-peterbilt-commercializing-fuel-cell-electric-trucks
https://afdc.energy.gov/states/ca

[Malcolm McLeod]

... Honestly I doubt we will ever see another nuclear power plant under construction again

...conversion to hydrogen...

Agreed. (Whispered) I doubt our SMR study will ever come to fruition, but I find it intriguing nonetheless - and a huge black eye for today's electric providers.

Hydrogen comes with its own basket of 'deplorableness' (mostly re: storage & transportation), but we will be making a lot of it (blue H2). The waste CO2 will be sequestered onsite (or at least close-by). The US government's H2 pricing structure makes this a no-brainer (your tax $ at work!).

For transportation, my money is on bio-fuels.

For electrical power generation, NG still has a long life. All the old EV batteries on the planet are no match for a good peaker plant; the equivalent PV cells are decades away. And need sunshine.

[Stan Calow]

I think a new nuke is coming online in Georgia this year. It can be done if the money isothere.

[Bill Dufour]

My old neighbor was a retired electrcal engineer who worked for several big utility companies. He started after a stint in the sea bees in ww2. In his day calculations were done on slide rules. So he always rounded up loads to determine mainline high voltage supply lines. He said they then added 20% for future growth.
Working in San Jose in the 1960-70's they just kept ahead of the silicon valley electrical demands.
Bill D

[Scott Winners]

One thing I think we will see is some kind of smart breaker system. My last house had a 100 amp service, about 2400sqft with 5 bedrooms, and the incoming main was buried under the paved street with the last transformer or switchbox in my across the street neighbor's front yard.

To run an EV in that house, I would have to charge the vehicle after everyone went to bed for the night. However, if my cook stove and clothes dryer had some kind of smart breaker on them that could tell the EV smart charger "I am going to draw startup current in 50 microseconds," then the EV charger could let up on current draw until the cookstove/ clothes dryer settled down to run current draw.

I dunno how many billions of $ of copper we have underground for the grid already, but we are going to have to work with what we got.

[Edward Weber]

Many places in the country also have time of day rates. No one is charging their cars during this time then, so everyone is charging at the same time, overnight.
Out here in sunny CA, in the summer, AC runs all day and cars charge all night. It doesn't matter if everything you own is energy smart, the grid will be overwhelmed. It's just not ready to handle the amount of electric cars coming. We already have more than any other state by a wide margin.
It's not a problem just yet but without generating your own electric through solar, it could lead to issues in the near future.
JMO

[Keith Outten]

I was told that hydrogen fuel can be produced at your home using one solar panel that would provide all of your home and transportation energy needs. The problem is political not physical. The government and big energy companies do not want us to have that capability. Sounds crazy I know but about ten years ago Honda was advertising a new car that came with a hydrogen generator that was capable of providing all the energy one home needed. Honda had a TV commercial but it ran for only a couple of days and the government shut it down. A bunch of guys where I worked were pretty excited about the concept and got pretty mad when it disappeared. Hydrogen gas flashed from a liquid would require a very substantial fuel tank that the government will never approve for the highways.

[Alan Lightstone]

I was told that hydrogen fuel can be produced at your home using one solar panel that would provide all of your home and transportation energy needs. The problem is political not physical. The government and big energy companies do not want us to have that capability. Sounds crazy I know but about ten years ago Honda was advertising a new car that came with a hydrogen generator that was capable of providing all the energy one home needed. Honda had a TV commercial but it ran for only a couple of days and the government shut it down. A bunch of guys where I worked were pretty excited about the concept and got pretty mad when it disappeared. Hydrogen gas flashed from a liquid would require a very substantial fuel tank that the government will never approve for the highways.
California has now 65 light-duty open retail hydrogen filling stations, with another 35 planned.
https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/zero-emission-vehicle-and-infrastructure-statistics/hydrogen-refueling

Of course that is a tiny amount, and almost all around Los Angeles and San Francisco.

I've always felt that hydrogen powered vehicles was the real answer, but also felt that Toyota missed the boat by concentrating on that while everyone else was going heavily into battery powered EVs.

[Malcolm McLeod]

I was told that hydrogen fuel can be produced at your home using one solar panel that would provide all of your home and transportation energy needs. The problem is political not physical. The government and big energy companies do not want us to have that capability. ...

I work for a company most would probably call 'big energy', and know our leadership. I am comfortable saying we are not standing in the way of H2 development. In fact, as alluded to earlier, we'll gladly sell you Blue H2 when you are away from your home generator. (The 'one solar panel' might be optimistic for 'all' needs, but maybe for light users...??)

As for the government, ...well... (insert TOS).;)

I do know a bit about the burdens of handling hydrogen, in its H2S form: it disperses easily in water, oil, and NG, causes embrittlement, and then when the pump or pipe service shatters like rock candy, it will kill the Tech dispatched to repair it. (And equally tragic, his wife who came to look for him. The children in the back seat survived.) Pure H2 causes similar embrittlement, and although certainly a bit less deadly to breathe, will simply leak thru a solid steel vessel. Its other transportation inefficiencies have been discussed at length, so will end there.

[Rollie Meyers]

One thing I think we will see is some kind of smart breaker system. My last house had a 100 amp service, about 2400sqft with 5 bedrooms, and the incoming main was buried under the paved street with the last transformer or switchbox in my across the street neighbor's front yard.

To run an EV in that house, I would have to charge the vehicle after everyone went to bed for the night. However, if my cook stove and clothes dryer had some kind of smart breaker on them that could tell the EV smart charger "I am going to draw startup current in 50 microseconds," then the EV charger could let up on current draw until the cookstove/ clothes dryer settled down to run current draw.

I dunno how many billions of $ of copper we have underground for the grid already, but we are going to have to work with what we got.

Not much copper used in transmission & distribution, mostly aluminum conductors.

[Doug Garson]

One thing I think we will see is some kind of smart breaker system. My last house had a 100 amp service, about 2400sqft with 5 bedrooms, and the incoming main was buried under the paved street with the last transformer or switchbox in my across the street neighbor's front yard.

To run an EV in that house, I would have to charge the vehicle after everyone went to bed for the night. However, if my cook stove and clothes dryer had some kind of smart breaker on them that could tell the EV smart charger "I am going to draw startup current in 50 microseconds," then the EV charger could let up on current draw until the cookstove/ clothes dryer settled down to run current draw.

I dunno how many billions of $ of copper we have underground for the grid already, but we are going to have to work with what we got.

Don't think this will require smart breakers, I think it can be achieved by smart devices. We just replaced our fridge and stove, both are wifi enabled. We also recently purchased a portable air conditioner that is wifi enabled and some time ago bought a whole house humidifier and garage door opener also wifi enabled along with smart switches for our outdoor house and yard lights. I'm sure our next clothes dryer and washer will likely be wifi enabled along with any other new appliances. So if they were all compatible, they could communicate with a car charger to control when it would charge the car.

[Edward Weber]

Don't think this will require smart breakers, I think it can be achieved by smart devices. We just replaced our fridge and stove, both are wifi enabled. We also recently purchased a portable air conditioner that is wifi enabled and some time ago bought a whole house humidifier and garage door opener also wifi enabled along with smart switches for our outdoor house and yard lights. I'm sure our next clothes dryer and washer will likely be wifi enabled along with any other new appliances. So if they were all compatible, they could communicate with a car charger to control when it would charge the car.

As long as your wi-fi signal is strong, when it goes out, you're sunk.

[Doug Garson]

As long as your wi-fi signal is strong, when it goes out, you're sunk.
I forget the last time we lost WIFI for more than a few minutes and the charger could be programmed to shut off if it didn't receive a WIFI signal.

[Curt Harms]

................
For transportation, my money is on bio-fuels.
................


SAF(sustainable aviation fuel) is already a thing. SAF is sometimes a blend of traditional Jet Fuel and renewable sources. There have been flights where one engine has run on 100% SAF for extended periods. The benefit to this approach is that the SAF is 'drop in', it works in existing engines. Whether it's possible or practical to produce enough feedstocks for SAF or other liquid fuels beyond demonstration scale is an unanswered question AFAIK.

[Doug Garson]

I don't think there is any one solution. There will be several interim and long term solutions before the problem is solved. I doubt many of us will be around long enough to see the day when CO2 levels start going down toward pre fossil fuel levels.

[Mike Henderson]

I was told that hydrogen fuel can be produced at your home using one solar panel that would provide all of your home and transportation energy needs. The problem is political not physical. The government and big energy companies do not want us to have that capability. Sounds crazy I know but about ten years ago Honda was advertising a new car that came with a hydrogen generator that was capable of providing all the energy one home needed. Honda had a TV commercial but it ran for only a couple of days and the government shut it down. A bunch of guys where I worked were pretty excited about the concept and got pretty mad when it disappeared. Hydrogen gas flashed from a liquid would require a very substantial fuel tank that the government will never approve for the highways.

No matter what form it's in, it's all energy. It's highly unlikey that one solar panel could provide all your home and transporation energy needs. A solar panel can produce somewhere between 250 watts to 400 watts, and that's under ideal conditions (directly facing the sun and no clouds). Let's say an average of 300 watts, and 8 hours per day. That's 2.4kWhr.

Now, let's convert that to hydrogen. With electrolysis of water, the resulting hydrogen will have about 70% of the input energy, or about 1.7 kWhr. Then, you have to put it into a fuel cell and that's about 60% efficient, giving you 1kWhr. That's not much. Over a week, under ideal conditions you'd get 7kWhrs. Even if your electricity costs you $0.30 per kWhr, that's $2.10.

Then you have some issues when using hydrogen in a vehicle. One is the fuel tank. You have to compress the hydrogen to a very high pressure in order to get enough range (to be able to store enough hydrogen in your vehicle) and that means a heavy fuel tank and danger of rupture in an accident.

Also note that almost all hydrogen vehicles also have batteries in them. The reason is that the fuel cell used in the vehicle is usually based on normal cruising energy demand (for cost reasons). The battery is there to provide the extra energy needed when you accelerate or go up hill.

If you work out the cost of commercial hydrogen from electrolysis you will find that the energy cost per mile is a lot more than energy from a battery. I just do not see any way that hydrogen can compete with a family level battery vehicle. It might have a chance for large commercial vehicles where the size and weight of a battery is not acceptable.

Mike

[Bill Dufour]

I was surprised to find the tesla chargers are not that smart. They follow the 80% rule all the time. I will use an example of 100 amp breaker to keep the math easy.
NEC says they can draw 80% 0f 100 amps continuously to charge the car. So that is what they do.
If they were smarter they could draw 100 amps for three hours then drop down to 80 amps until fully charged. Of course if the charger then switched to a different car and restarted at 100 amps the 100% draw might violate the 3 hour limit for 100% amp draw.
BillD

[Malcolm McLeod]

SAF(sustainable aviation fuel) is already a thing. SAF is sometimes a blend of traditional Jet Fuel and renewable sources. There have been flights where one engine has run on 100% SAF for extended periods. The benefit to this approach is that the SAF is 'drop in', it works in existing engines. Whether it's possible or practical to produce enough feedstocks for SAF or other liquid fuels beyond demonstration scale is an unanswered question AFAIK.

People tend to get excited about some revolutionary technology, but getting that from demonstration scale to production scale is always key - - and the downfall of many such 'revolutions'.

One component of SAF is called MTJ (Methanol to Jet). It can upgrade many feedstocks (forestry or agri residues, and even municipal solid waste), or convert lower-carbon hydrogen and CO2 into Jet-A. Testing has gone well so far, and commercial-scale processing facility design is done. We'll see if it can get over the real-world hurdle of economics, actual commercialization, and public acceptance.

Personally, in the medium term (25-75yrs) I suspect we'll use (GMO?) algae or bacteria to grow diesel/Jet-A (or at least a precursor for them). Result can be carbon neutral and leverages the existing liquid fuels handling infrastructure that the world's transportation sector has in place today.

[Curt Harms]

For those that say "But I don't have a Jet", there's not a lot of difference between Jet fuel and Diesel. In fact, there are rumors of Ag Planes with turbine engines running on Diesel, not legally of course.

[Doug Garson]

People tend to get excited about some revolutionary technology, but getting that from demonstration scale to production scale is always key - - and the downfall of many such 'revolutions'.

One component of SAF is called MTJ (Methanol to Jet). It can upgrade many feedstocks (forestry or agri residues, and even municipal solid waste), or convert lower-carbon hydrogen and CO2 into Jet-A. Testing has gone well so far, and commercial-scale processing facility design is done. We'll see if it can get over the real-world hurdle of economics, actual commercialization, and public acceptance.

Personally, in the medium term (25-75yrs) I suspect we'll use (GMO?) algae or bacteria to grow diesel/Jet-A (or at least a precursor for them). Result can be carbon neutral and leverages the existing liquid fuels handling infrastructure that the world's transportation sector has in place today.
Just to put it into perspective, aviation produces about 9 to 12% of US transportation greenhouse gas emissions which is responsible for about 29% of total US GHG emissions. SAF currently replaces about 0.1% of fossil fuel based jet fuel. So currently SAF replaces about 0.0029% of US GHG emissions. It may be a promising alternative but it has a long long way to go before it has significant impact.

[mike stenson]

For those that say "But I don't have a Jet", there's not a lot of difference between Jet fuel and Diesel. In fact, there are rumors of Ag Planes with turbine engines running on Diesel, not legally of course.

My old Dodge manual actually stated that you could run jet-A or kerosene in the Cummins.

[Greg Quenneville]

I read that supplying just US aviation with algae based jet fuel would require a lake that would cover seven states. So no, not in its current form.

Aviation makes approximately 3% of the world’s CO2 output. More efficient engines always get offset by more airplanes.

Someone mentioned running an ag plane on diesel…out in the boonies why not? But diesel is a lot more expensive than Jet A. Back in the day we used to use “clean arctic diesel” as an approved substitute for jet fuel. I laughed at the idea that I would one day be crouched by a D-9 Cat with a siphon hose and a 45 gallon drum to top up the Twin Otter

[Doug Garson]

We don't need a lake, we already have an ocean that is covered by seaweed. The Caribbean Is Swimming in Seaweed. Scientists Aim To Turn It Into Jet Fuel and Batteries. Backed by U.S. Department of Energy Funding, New R&D Could Help Seed a Uniquely Caribbean Bioeconomy.
The global energy potential of Caribbean seaweed and wood waste is unmistakable. Up to 1.24 million dry tons of sargassum could be harvested annually near populated coastlines. NREL collaborator Fearless Fund has developed a novel process to harvest it at sea both to ensure quality biomass and to protect the coastal environment.
Blended with 75% wood waste, that resource could yield up to 78 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel every year. (By my math that's about 0.5% of US airlines annual consumption) A commercialized process could also produce an estimated 61,000 tons of graphite annually—3.4% of global synthetic graphite production.

Every little bit helps but we need hundreds if not thousands of solutions to the climate change problem.
https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2022/the-caribbean-is-swimming-in-seaweed-scientists-aim-to-turn-it-into-jet-fuel-and-batteries.html#:~:text=Together%2C%20the%20sargass um%20and%20wood,NREL%E2%80%94to%20the%20unique%20p airing.

[Stan Calow]

It's about meeting the peak demand, right? There's been some talk about using large in-home storage battery units to provide that bit of extra capacity as well.

But I think just finding new fuels to support our consuming lifestyle is not sustainable in the long run. And none of the alternative options are going to be cheap.

[Steve Demuth]

​It's hard to imagine where that kind of growth could come from. If you ran all the big energy draws on my house simultaneously (Level II Charger, Electric Heat, Hot Water, Kitchen Range), you would max out the breaker nameplate capacity of a 200Amp service, although you'd still only be drawing less than 150Amps. The other uses of electricity in the house, although they use a lot of spaces on the panel, don't collectively add 20A actual draw on a 240V service - there are lots of loads, but hardly any of them is more than 10W individually. Granted I have a small house (1200 ft2), but it's hard for me to see how the numbers would even double for any single family residence that is well built, properly insulated, etc.

[roger wiegand]

A combination of air sealing, insulation, conversion to all LED lighting, use of deciduous vines and shrubs to provide seasonal shading, and upgrades to medium-high efficiency appliances allowed us to cut energy usage in our house by about 2/3 while increasing the size from 1600 to 2800 sf. No rocket science, and nothing stupidly expensive in the context of a rehab of a neglected 60 year old house, just care and attention to detail. The majority of the houses in our town could benefit similarly.

[Roger Feeley]

There’s a company called Plug Power that big in the fuel cell space. For a long time they kind of sputtered who’ll trying to figure out ow to sell fuel cell powered cars when there was no infrastructure. They got some new leadership and changed focus to forklifts and fleet vehicles. Now their big roadblock is eating enough H2. They have customers lined up to convert their material handling and delivery vehicles.

[Mike Henderson]

There’s a company called Plug Power that big in the fuel cell space. For a long time they kind of sputtered who’ll trying to figure out ow to sell fuel cell powered cars when there was no infrastructure. They got some new leadership and changed focus to forklifts and fleet vehicles. Now their big roadblock is eating enough H2. They have customers lined up to convert their material handling and delivery vehicles.

Right now, the majority of hydrogen is produced from steam reforming of natural gas. That's not very green. In addition to the feed stock of natural gas, a lot of gas is used for heat in the process.

But what can work on things like you suggested is a unit the produces hydrogen from electrolysis of water. The company could run the electrolysis unit over night to produce hydrogen for their equipment.

Mike

[Steve Demuth]

We started out with gutted one room schoolhouse over an uninsulated crawl space, heated entirely with wood . Not surprisingly it leaked like sieve and took cords of hardwood to heat at all. The same house today, wrapped, insulated, with the crawl space sealed and fully insulated, could easily be heated and cooled for $600 worth of electricity per year. We still supplement with wood, so our actual heating costs are lower.

And the floors are warm and the house comfortable.

The last jump in efficiency. however, even though it made the house much more comfortable, wasn't really cost-effective. We spent $50K to upgrade windows, tighten the crawl space, and upgrade to a very high COP air-source heat pump. That got us off propane and made the heat pump a sensible choice, but it probably would only save less than $1000/yr in energy costs, even if we weren't using our own wood and electricity. So, it'll never pay for itself. But it gets us one step close to carbon neutral by reducing our total fossil fuel usage by 50%.

[Jim Becker]

Steve, at least the upgrade costs are somewhat balanced by the increase in comfort, even if the financial payback isn't what it's desired to be. And as you note, there are other long term benefits, not just to the homeowner, but to society.

[Daniel O'Neill]

A combination of air sealing, insulation, conversion to all LED lighting, use of deciduous vines and shrubs to provide seasonal shading, and upgrades to medium-high efficiency appliances allowed us to cut energy usage in our house by about 2/3 while increasing the size from 1600 to 2800 sf. No rocket science, and nothing stupidly expensive in the context of a rehab of a neglected 60 year old house, just care and attention to detail. The majority of the houses in our town could benefit similarly.

I'd be interested in the vines your talking about. I haven't found anything great. IL zone 5. We have septic on the west front lawn so our west side gets blasted in the evening/afternoon and we can't plant any trees to shade the roof or walls.

This whole discussion is interesting. I work for a small electric utility and the plan is to almost replace pedestals with transformers due to increased load. The EV chargers can have a significant impact to load calculations (according to the engineers anyway). I think it's because you can't practically say that they are charged overnight. You have to calculate like they could be charged at anytime and during peak summer loading that's a problem.

No mention of small scale nuclear reactor (https://www.energy.gov/ne/advanced-small-modular-reactors-smrs)s yet. I find those super interesting in order to baseload and spread the grid out. Maybe some to for electrolysis of water to hydrogen and then use the hydrogen for peaker plants.

During California's last bought with drought, I would wonder what the effect would be if all of LA was running hydrogen cars. .... Water vapor is a greenhouse gas though....

[roger wiegand]

I'd be interested in the vines your talking about. I haven't found anything great. IL zone 5. We have septic on the west front lawn so our west side gets blasted in the evening/afternoon and we can't plant any trees to shade the roof or walls.


Wisteria growing on a pergola that sticks out about 3 ft above the window. Full southern exposure, we have to cut it back severely every year to keep it under control. It is in a bed that gets drip irrigation, though we didn't need to turn it on this year. Also zone 5.

[Doug Garson]

Wisteria growing on a pergola that sticks out about 3 ft above the window. Full southern exposure, we have to cut it back severely every year to keep it under control. It is in a bed that gets drip irrigation, though we didn't need to turn it on this year. Also zone 5.
We have a Wisteria growing up a tree down the street from us. The tree is about 40 ft high and the Wisteria goes all the way to the top. Looks gorgeous when in bloom but I wonder how much longer the tree will survive.

[roger wiegand]

We have a Wisteria growing up a tree down the street from us. The tree is about 40 ft high and the Wisteria goes all the way to the top. Looks gorgeous when in bloom but I wonder how much longer the tree will survive.

It's a borderline invasive around here, and something I would definitely not use further south where it is very problematic. Im sure DW would pick something different today, now that we've converted mostly to native species, probably the native trumpet honeysuckle or Clematis virginiana. As I mentioned the wisteria requires aggressive pruning to remain in control. Does look pretty in flower though!

[Tom Bender]

Elephant in the room - there are way way too many people on the planet for sustainability. Nature will correct this eventually.

[Edwin Santos]

Elephant in the room - there are way way too many people on the planet for sustainability. Nature will correct this eventually.

Fatalists have held that opinion for a very long time, including when the population was much lower than it is now.
One of the most famous was American biologist Paul Ehrlich, who has been mostly if not totally discredited. His book The Population Bomb from 1968 scared a lot of people because he predicted mass starvation in the 1970s. Various countries (unnecessarily) adopted population controls including sterilization due to his book and the associated predictions.

[Mike Henderson]

Elephant in the room - there are way way too many people on the planet for sustainability. Nature will correct this eventually.

When countries become wealthy, the birth rate declines precipitously. For example, the US birth rate is about 1.6. Japan is 1.3. China is 1.28. South Korea is 0.84!

The thing that saves the US is immigration. It's very difficult to immigrate to Japan so they have some serious problems with declining population and providing for their elder population.

The countries with high birth rates (above 2.1) are mainly in Africa and the middle east.

Mike

[Doug Garson]

Elephant in the room - there are way way too many people on the planet for sustainability. Nature will correct this eventually.
And yet our main economic model demands growth or the economy goes into a recession and the economy fails.

[Edward Weber]

And yet our main economic model demands growth or the economy goes into a recession and the economy fails.

Economy must grow,
oh wait, growing too fast,
inflation
must raise interest rates, that'll slow it down,
oh no recession
must increase job's & production,
economy grows,
oh wait, growing too fast,
inflation
must raise interest rates, that'll slow it down,

[Mike Henderson]

Economy must grow,
oh wait, growing too fast,
inflation
must raise interest rates, that'll slow it down,
oh no recession
must increase job's & production,
economy grows,
oh wait, growing too fast,
inflation
must raise interest rates, that'll slow it down,

Yep, it's tough. But a lot better than the depression of 1929 and the 30's. WWII pulled us out of that.

Mike

[Edwin Santos]

Yep, it's tough. But a lot better than the depression of 1929 and the 30's. WWII pulled us out of that.

Mike

The establishment of the Federal Reserve, reforms to the overall financial system, infrastructure investment and many other structural reforms had a big impact also.
The US financial system of today bears no resemblance to the conditions of the Great Depression era which is why I find it so puzzling when people worry about the Great Depression repeating itself. Not to say we can't experience a different type of financial crisis, like what happened in 2008, but a repeat of the Great Depression is very unlikely.
I like to complain about the Fed as much as the next guy, but truth be known, I definitely wouldn't want to live in world without them.

[Edwin Santos]

When countries become wealthy, the birth rate declines precipitously. For example, the US birth rate is about 1.6. Japan is 1.3. China is 1.28. South Korea is 0.84!

The thing that saves the US is immigration. It's very difficult to immigrate to Japan so they have some serious problems with declining population and providing for their elder population.

The countries with high birth rates (above 2.1) are mainly in Africa and the middle east.

Mike

This is all very accurate, and not widely known, especially the high value of immigration.
The non-partisan Cato Institute did a comprehensive study that revealed that immigrants as a group (we're talking legal immigrants here) pay in more in taxes than they take out. I think the factor was something like 1.27. Whereas native born Americans as a group pay in about .73 meaning they generally take out more than they pay in.
This is why some countries create incentives for immigration, especially for those that come with some level of assets and/or commit to starting a business. New Zealand and Portugal come to mind. Others like France have tried to create financial incentives for people to have children in their attempt to increase the birth rate.
Like Mike says, Japan in particular is facing a concerning trend.

[Mike Henderson]

If you have any interest in the projected population of Japan, here's an article about it. (https://www.jcer.or.jp/english/new-population-projection-how-does-it-differ-from-the-old-one#) Japan had a population of 128 million in 2008, and is projected to fall to about 50 million by 2120.

If nothing changes, I'd expect land prices and housing to get fairly cheap:) Plus a lot of abandoned houses.

There are a lot of reasons for the falling birth rate in wealthy countries but a big part is the cost of raising a child. In poor countries, children are sometimes seen as an asset. Boys can work and girls are sold for wives. Additionally, in many of those countries women are tightly controlled and don't have access to birth control.

Mike

[Edwin Santos]

If you have any interest in the projected population of Japan, here's an article about it. (https://www.jcer.or.jp/english/new-population-projection-how-does-it-differ-from-the-old-one#) Japan had a population of 128 million in 2008, and is projected to fall to about 50 million by 2120.


Mike

Very interesting study, thank you for the link

[Kent A Bathurst]

..... projected to fall to about 50 million by 2120.

If nothing changes.........

Well, projections about next week are tough enough to hit in the 10-ring, so a century out is a bit tenuous.

"If nothing changes" would mean buggy whips and horse manure throughout Manhattan. I'll take a shot on people rising to the occasion and devising solutions to the issues of the day. It will be ugly as per, but then when was it not?

[Mike Henderson]

Well, projections about next week are tough enough to hit in the 10-ring, so a century out is a bit tenuous.

"If nothing changes" would mean buggy whips and horse manure throughout Manhattan. I'll take a shot on people rising to the occasion and devising solutions to the issues of the day. It will be ugly as per, but then when was it not?

The thing that would have to change is for women to have more babies. For that to change, society would have to put a lot more free or very low cost child support in place. Could happen but I don't see it coming soon.

Mike

[mike stenson]

The thing that would have to change is for women to have more babies. For that to change, society would have to put a lot more free or very low cost child support in place. Could happen but I don't see it coming soon.

Mike

Populations are dropping in countries that have free to very low cost childcare, so I think there's more to it than that. In any case, fewer workers means lower production, and a shrinking economy. Even with keynesian adjustments.

[Doug Garson]

The thing that would have to change is for women to have more babies. For that to change, society would have to put a lot more free or very low cost child support in place. Could happen but I don't see it coming soon.

Mike
Or we could come up with an economic model that doesn't depend on continuous population growth. Eventually that has to happen or we need to find another planet to colonize.

[Tom M King]

Carrying capacity will be reached long before we master interplanetary travel, especially when war slows up production on the world’s most fertile soil. Carrying capacity is actually not that far off in this century in the best of circumstances.

[Edwin Santos]

Or we could come up with an economic model that doesn't depend on continuous population growth. Eventually that has to happen or we need to find another planet to colonize.

The economic model does not necessarily require population growth. It requires productivity growth, measured in GDP. In the past that has been accomplished more through innovation than population growth.

[Mike Henderson]

Or we could come up with an economic model that doesn't depend on continuous population growth. Eventually that has to happen or we need to find another planet to colonize.

It's pretty obvious that we won't have continuous population growth in the industrial nations. The industrial nations of the world, including India and China, are below replacement. The countries which have population growth are in Africa and the Middle East, and those are generally not considered industrial nations. If they every did become industrial nations, their birth rates would almost certainly fall below replacement.

The world population will continue to grow, but that's because we're living longer. For economic growth, we need to look at the population growth of people in their working (productive) years, and that's definitely declining in the industrial nations. Older people are generally a drain on an industralized nation - they receive money, goods and services and do not produce anything.

Mike

[Mike Henderson]

Carrying capacity will be reached long before we master interplanetary travel, especially when war slows up production on the world’s most fertile soil. Carrying capacity is actually not that far off in this century in the best of circumstances.

People have been predicting that for a long, long time. Years ago there was a prediction that we would not be able to grow enough food but the Haber-Bosch process (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process) came along and gave us lots of nitrogen fertilizer.

There's no shortage of food in the industrialized world. There in in Africa.

Just as a side note, there is so much waste in our food production. Farmers and processing facilities throw away an enormous amount of product because it is not cosmetically perfect. Drive by a packing plant and there's usually a mound of discarded product.

Mike

[A long, long time ago, farmers used to allow gleaners to go into the fields and collect product that they didn't harvest (after the harvest). I haven't seen that recently but it may still go on. For example, farmers who grew potatoes never got all the potatoes with their machine and it was not economically feasible for them to harvest that last bit. But the gleaners would collect them. It may be that no one in farm country is poor enough to do gleaning.]

[Doug Garson]

My wife and I volunteer at a foodbank and thru that I have learned that there is a whole industry with a combination of non profit and for profit organizations that recover unsellable foods and direct it to charities that distribute it to those in need. One for profit company collects near expired produce from grocery stores, triages it into three streams. One stream is food still good for humans and goes to food banks like the one we volunteer at, a second goes to farmers for animal feed and the last is worm composted and the compost is sold as a soil supplement, virtually none goes to landfill.

[Mike Henderson]

My wife and I volunteer at a foodbank and thru that I have learned that there is a whole industry with a combination of non profit and for profit organizations that recover unsellable foods and direct it to charities that distribute it to those in need. One for profit company collects near expired produce from grocery stores, triages it into three streams. One stream is food still good for humans and goes to food banks like the one we volunteer at, a second goes to farmers for animal feed and the last is worm composted and the compost is sold as a soil supplement, virtually none goes to landfill.

I'm sure your organization does a good job, but it's probably a drop in the bucket. Here's a quote from "Feeding America" an organization dedicated to reducing food waste:

Each year, 119 billion pounds (https://insights-engine.refed.org/food-waste-monitor?break_by=sector&indicator=tons-waste&view=detail&year=2019) of food is wasted in the United States. That equates to 130 billion meals and more than $408 billion in food thrown away each year. Shockingly, nearly 40% of all food in America is wasted.
Food goes to waste at every stage of food production and distribution - from farmers to packers and shippers, from manufacturers to retailers to our homes. Food waste in our homes makes up about 39% of all food waste - about 42 billion pounds of food waste. While commercial food waste makes up about 61% of all food waste or 66 billion pounds of food waste. Feeding America focuses on reducing food waste on farms and in food service, manufacturing, and retail.

Mike

[Doug Garson]

No doubt Mike's numbers are true, lot's of food still goes to waste despite the efforts of food recovery companies.

[Ole Anderson]

Just saw a YouTube that noted Europe is now about 80% high efficiency inverter HVAC (think mini-split) use whereas the US is at just 4%. Lots of room for improvement there.

[Bill Howatt]

No doubt Mike's numbers are true, lot's of food still goes to waste despite the efforts of food recovery companies.

Part of the problem is the consumer's desire for blemish-free, nicely shaped, produce. There have also been various reports that the Best Before Date is causing needless disposal of foodstuffs.

[Mike Henderson]

Part of the problem is the consumer's desire for blemish-free, nicely shaped, produce.

That is really true. I sell a small amount of avocados to a local grocery store and they will only take the perfect avocados. If the avocados have any mark on them, the only thing they'll take them for (at low prices) is for making guacamole. We eat those avocados and they're just fine.

I've watched farm workers picking tomatoes. If any are too ripe, or misshapen, or too small, and I guess if they have any marks on them, they're just thrown on the ground. If you were raising them in your back yard, you'd use those tomatoes.

Mike

[Malcolm McLeod]

The recent thread on electric vehicles brings up questions about future infrastructure for residential electric service ( power lines, transformers, etc.) Will a future home need 500 AMP service? Can contemporary power poles safely hold the power lines and transformers that can supply that much power to whole neighborhoods?

Re-visiting this (in a spare moment) and returning to Mr. Tashiro's OP, since I just got out of a related meeting about an hour ago: The electric utility providers in my small corner of the world (SW TX + SE NM) have informed my company that by 2025YE they will be 210MW short of supplying us with sufficient power. They are unwilling or unable to build the required plants. And we are only a part of this area's electrical needs and growth.

Sort of sounds like a 'every person for themselves' kind of situation - - in case it helps with your planning.

[Doug Garson]

Here in BC, our main utility BC Hydro predicts a shortfall of power by 2030. BC Hydro announced in June of this year that they expect to launch an official call to IPP's in the spring of 2024 for the required additional renewable power production with the hope that projects will start connecting to the provincial grid by 2028. Currently BC Hydro has a surplus and has additional power coming on line in 2025.

[Mike Henderson]

California has so much solar that during some days in the summer the power companies had to pay other power companies to take the excesss power.

Mike

[Doug Garson]

California has so much solar that during some days in the summer the power companies had to pay other power companies to take the excesss power.

Mike
Sounds like an opportunity to employ batteries or pumped storage?

[Mike Henderson]

Sounds like an opportunity to employ batteries or pumped storage?

Yes, I'm sure that's being worked on.

Mike

[Maurice Mcmurry]

People have been predicting that for a long, long time. Years ago there was a prediction that we would not be able to grow enough food but the Haber-Bosch process (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process) came along and gave us lots of nitrogen fertilizer.

There's no shortage of food in the industrialized world.

There will be soon if the status quo for agriculture continues to be Anhydrous Ammonia + Glyphosate + Genetically Modified crops. What this combination is doing to our health and soil is a big concern. Our little country place is surrounded by big AG. I have given up on the hope that I can have a vegetable garden there.

[Monte Milanuk]

Had an interesting 'all plant' meeting at the hydro yesterday. A couple interesting items that relate to this discussion here... one, there's additional regulation going into effect requiring utilities to reserve more capacity for supporting the grid, which means less available to sell elsewhere. And two, because of the emphasis on ixnaying coal and gas despite rising power demands, it's starting to look more and more like baby nukes may be on the table (finally). Interesting times...

[Ronald Blue]

Had an interesting 'all plant' meeting at the hydro yesterday. A couple interesting items that relate to this discussion here... one, there's additional regulation going into effect requiring utilities to reserve more capacity for supporting the grid, which means less available to sell elsewhere. And two, because of the emphasis on ixnaying coal and gas despite rising power demands, it's starting to look more and more like baby nukes may be on the table (finally). Interesting times...

I think the reality is electricity is going to become a lot more expensive. I'm already paying the most I have ever paid in my life and it's almost doubled in less than 10 years. With all fees added in now I am at 20 cents per KWH.

[Mike Henderson]

I think the reality is electricity is going to become a lot more expensive. I'm already paying the most I have ever paid in my life and it's almost doubled in less than 10 years. With all fees added in now I am at 20 cents per KWH.

We're on a tier system and the lowest tier is about $0.30/kWhr. I think the highest tier is about $0.41/kWhr.

I remember when it was $0.07kWhr.

Mike

[Bill Howatt]

I think the reality is electricity is going to become a lot more expensive. I'm already paying the most I have ever paid in my life and it's almost doubled in less than 10 years. With all fees added in now I am at 20 cents per KWH.
Based on your mention of fees, I guess your bills are structured like mine. Looking at the oft-quoted rate for electricity makes it look fairly cheap but by the time the taxes, delivery charges, etc. get applied, the real price per Kwh is much higher. I think anybody who believes that the construction of increased electrical infrastructure to support the new "electric" era isn't going to be reflected on utility bills is dreaming.

[Maurice Mcmurry]

I am afraid that the future infrastructure for electricity will be a lot more like this movie clip than all homes having 400 amps. Does anyone remember the brown outs and blackouts of 1977?


https://youtu.be/idJklVyn5PE?si=NYI5wdPxbuLujCcf

[Monte Milanuk]

Local rates - read 'em and weep ;)


A) Residential and Commercial services:

Basic charge: $14.21 per month

Energy charge: $0.0233 first 25,000 KWH
$0.0262 25,001 KWH to 49,999 KWH
$0.0267 50,000 KWH and over

Demand charge: $2.19 per kilowatt of demand in excess of 50 kilowatts.

[Doug Garson]

Local rates - read 'em and weep ;)

) Residential and Commercial services:

Basic charge: $14.21 per month

Energy charge: $0.0233 first 25,000 KWH
$0.0262 25,001 KWH to 49,999 KWH
$0.0267 50,000 KWH and over

Demand charge: $2.19 per kilowatt of demand in excess of 50 kilowatts.



Where and when was that? The average residential electricity rate in Washington is 13 ¢/kWh, which is 29% lower than the national average rate of 18 ¢/kWh.

Current rates for residential customers in British Columbia as of October 1, 2023, are: Basic charge = $0.2117 per day. ($6.30/month) Step 1 energy charge (first 1376 kilowatt hours (kWh))1 = $0.0975/kWh. Step 2 energy charge (every kWh over 1376) = $0.1408/kWh.

Note these are Canuck Bucks $.72 US.

[Monte Milanuk]

Where and when was that?

Current, copied it off the local utility's website (https://douglaspud.org/for-customers/customer-service-policies/#) today.

One of the benefits of living along the Columbia River... There's a reason why Microsoft and others are building huge data centers in Chelan, Douglas and Grant counties - power is stupidly cheap, even if it's not considered 'green' by the eco-freaks, and most of the utilities invested heavily in fiber backbones years ago.


The average residential electricity rate in Washington is 13 ¢/kWh, which is 29% lower than the national average rate of 18 ¢/kWh.

The only reason the average residental rate in WA is that low is because of the metric butt-load of hydro along the Columbia River. We make enough to cover our own needs, and sell most of the rest on long-term contracts to places like Avista and Puget Sound Energy. The remainder gets sold on the spot market to anyone who needs to make up a shortfall on their own commitments.

[Doug Garson]

Current, copied it off the local utility's website (https://douglaspud.org/for-customers/customer-service-policies/#) today.

One of the benefits of living along the Columbia River... There's a reason why Microsoft and others are building huge data centers in Chelan, Douglas and Grant counties - power is stupidly cheap, even if it's not considered 'green' by the eco-freaks, and most of the utilities invested heavily in fiber backbones years ago.


The only reason the average residental rate in WA is that low is because of the metric butt-load of hydro along the Columbia River. We make enough to cover our own needs, and sell most of the rest on long-term contracts to places like Avista and Puget Sound Energy. The remainder gets sold on the spot market to anyone who needs to make up a shortfall on their own commitments.


Thanks Monte, I didn't realize there was that much spread in rates around the state. Hydro is definitely one of the cheapest options. In BC we essentially have one Crown Corporation as our utility and I think rates are the same province wide.

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

Poles to carry electric for a neighborhood? Why not underground. I paid to bury my line back my driveway from the road, 890 ft didn't want any crappy poles screwing up the view or above ground lines to get screwed up by birds planes, trees, incompetent power personnel etc. we do have propane heat, hot water and cooking so only 200 amp needed, but I think a higher amp line was installed. . We have all sealed led light fixtures inside and out. replaced one light fixture in 8 years. Our well pump does come off the barn electric which is a 1/4 mile away and on it's own meter

[Monte Milanuk]

Poles to carry electric for a neighborhood? Why not underground.

Well... in my experience (spent a few years doing "retail" / 'low-voltage' substation work, from 69kv on the high side coming into the transformers, down to 2.4 kv on the circuits heading out of the substation to houses (and businesses), but mostly 34.5kv and 12.5/13.8 kv)... the advantages of underground are aesthetics (no unsightly overhead lines), less concerns about interference with over/under build i.e. higher voltage lines above, or lower power / telecom lines below... less likely to get smacked by drunk drivers... fewer concerns with vegetation management (trees growing into the lines, or lines sagging under high load current / high temps (or conversely, ice buildup in the winter))... the problems are fewer, but constitute a fair PITA from the maintenance POV. Fault somewhere along the line? Modern relaying and metering can do a pretty good job of localizing where along the line the problem is, but someone still has to go out and put a Mk1 Mod 0 eyeball on it. Overhead - drive the line and you can pretty easily *see* the problem. Underground? Get a backhoe. It ain't gonna be fun. If you're in a region with any degree of seismic activity... overhead can (to some degree) move with the motion, and can be rebuilt fairly easily/quickly. Underground? Not so much, and you're back to the backhoe. With overhead... the only points that have to be actually insulated are at the cross arms or where the lines connect to other pieces of equipment - the ambient air around the wire makes pretty good insulation. Underground... can be done fairly compactly, because you don't need as large of minimum clearance distances since you aren't using air for the insulator, but (usually) a solid material designed for the purpose. Unfortunately, that material has a service life - during which it breaks down and loses effectiveness. Restringing aka re-conductoring overhead power lines is a royal PITA, but really doesn't have to happen very often - either when the utility is upgrading the line. When the insulation on underground starts to fail... well hopefully you can imagine what nightmare digging it all up and replacing it can be.

We had some particular fun at the utility I was at previously, where a whole bunch of underground had been put in a couple decades prior, and was beginning to reach EOL. More and more service interruptions due to spot failures, and the test equipment for locating said faults basically consisted of applying high voltage pulses to the line, and walking down the path with a set of microphones along the ground, listening for the 'thump' of the voltage arcing to ground (literally). That got you close enough to call out the backhoe ;) Problem was, you'd patch one bad spot, and then a couple weeks/months later have another fault caused by... the high voltage pulses used to locate the last fault. The next generation of test equipment did a much better job, using TDR (time-domain reflection) to pin-point the location using much lower voltage pulses and causing fewer subsequent secondary failures.

Even that was quite a while ago (20+yrs) so I can only imagine what they have now - but remember, not every utility *has* access to that kind of tech. The one I worked for then, a state-wide public utility in Nebraska, was a pretty firm believer in preventative maintenance and aggressive maintenance schedules - they'd rather control the timing of outages than get caught flat-footed. Many of the smaller municipalities and rural co-ops... practiced more what we called 'burn-down' maintenance i.e. they'd just let it go until something burned up (or down), and then fix just what they absolutely had to to keep going.

It's not a simple subject.

[Bill Howatt]

Informative perspective from the other side of the pole or burial site!

I found the TDR interesting since many years ago, maybe around the time it first appeared, I used TDR in a lab environment to investigate transmission line and device impedance matching - not power lines but hardware for use at microwave frequencies. Of course, a break or non-terminated cable would show up as a huge mismatch.