Things might be getting better with lumber prices

[Edwin Santos]

Maybe things on the lumber front are looking up?

If things settle down in Ukraine, maybe baltic birch will get closer to normal too.


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[Jeff Roltgen]

Guessing we'll be stuck at the higher numbers through 1st quarter of 2023. Distributors presumably bought at the higher pricing, so a complete mystery as to when they'll sell that off and decide it's safe to lower pricing again.
That's got to be an interesting seat to be in, given the volatility of things as of late.

[Edwin Santos]

Guessing we'll be stuck at the higher numbers through 1st quarter of 2023. Distributors presumably bought at the higher pricing, so a complete mystery as to when they'll sell that off and decide it's safe to lower pricing again.
That's got to be an interesting seat to be in, given the volatility of things as of late.

That's a good point. There might also be suppliers hanging on to the higher pricing simply because they think they can get it. It then takes good old fashioned competition to force their hand when they see volume dropping and customers going elsewhere.

[John TenEyck]

Those look like softwood construction lumber prices. It's way different for hardwood lumber and especially sheet goods. I buy from a local supplier. Their prices have come down some on both, but still have a loooong way to go to approach pre pandemic prices. When everything sorts itself out, I doubt prices will ever be that low again.

John

[Ray Newman]

"Their prices have come down some on both, but still have a loooong way to go to approach pre pandemic prices. When everything sorts itself out, I doubt prices will ever be that low again."

--John TenEyck

BINGO! Seems like for the least 18-24 months I have been hearing about the "anticipated price drop", but I have not actually seen or experienced it.

[Andrew More]

Before everybody and his brother starts bashing the big box stores for price gouging, I noticed my local Menards had their prices just slightly elevated for a very long time, I expect the decreases to have a similar lag. The truth is that most retailers don't want to gouge their customers, since it causes a lot of ill will. In this case if they drop their prices significantly and then raising them just as quickly there will be a dozen threads on this forum accusing them of gouging. So there's going to be lag.

I'd also point out that that's a futures chart, so it's speculative, until it's not, and it looks like a ride at a theme park. Big box stores don't want to do the roller coaster thing either with their customers, instead trying to average it out. I also suspect there's a difference in the talent of the various buyers at the big box stores, so what's happening in one area isn't in another. It's also why my Lowes/HD had higher prices for a while than Menards, which I believe reversed at one point, I haven't been keeping track.

As for prices long term, rumor has it that the prices for lumber have been artificially suppressed for a few years going into the pandemic, as a result of forced harvesting in Canada caused by some sort of issue with a pest or fungus. I believe that has stopped happening. So between the decrease in supply + higher wages + higher gas prices I'd expect prices to be a bit above normal.

[Myles Moran]

Those look like softwood construction lumber prices. It's way different for hardwood lumber and especially sheet goods. I buy from a local supplier. Their prices have come down some on both, but still have a loooong way to go to approach pre pandemic prices. When everything sorts itself out, I doubt prices will ever be that low again.

John

Agreed, it wasn't fun to pay those prices to put up some shelves to hold totes in my basement, but I didn't notice any notable change at my local sawmill for rough hardwood.

[Ken Krawford]

That graph looks encouraging but I don't this my local lumber yard is aware of it yet ! :mad:

[Larry Frank]

I agree that prices are starting to come down but slowly. With increasing mortgage rates, housing starts will decrease and also demand for building supplies.

[Stan Calow]

I've always believed that, like oil and gas, lumber retailers charge prices based on what it will cost to buy new product, not what the existing product cost them.

[Ron Citerone]

I don't see major hardwood venders lowering prices here, but the small mill guys and the CL guys are offering lower pricing so I think th trend is down, fingers crossed.

[Edwin Santos]

I don't see major hardwood venders lowering prices here, but the small mill guys and the CL guys are offering lower pricing so I think th trend is down, fingers crossed.

Exactly - that's why I posted it. At least the trend appears to be going in the right direction. May not be enough for some, but I'm willing to celebrate any little bit of good news.

Futures are normally an advance indicator anyway, but I did notice in my local HD that a 2x4 stud was down to $3.24 where it was triple that at one point. I don't think hardwood is as volatile as construction lumber. Hardwood definitely escalated in my area, but it didn't quadruple like construction lumber did. My fingers are crossed too.

[Peter Schussheim]

Unless we experience one or more miracles, we are going to be feeling pain regarding pricing on lumber and nearly all goods for a long while. Inflation has not yet peaked and the interest rate increases have done very little to help control inflation, they have done far more damage to the middle class. I've made this informed opinion based on those two previous considerations combined with the continued printing of Monopoly money, hostility towards fossil fuels, supply chain "issues", and multiple examples of central planning by the ruling class.

[Rick Potter]

Housing starts are dropping fast, with the start of the recession, and supply will be more than demand on construction lumber for a while. Many other things are tied to housing starts, like appliances, windows, flooring, etc.

[Brian Tymchak]

My thermometer on lumber prices is cabinet grade ply. Just checked my favorite supplier price list and 1/2" prefinished maple ply is still $150 a sheet. So I see no relief at all yet.

[Darrell Bade]

Cabinet grade ply is still crazy high. I bought 300 bd ft of flatsawn and quartersawn oak recently and it was very little more than pre-pandemic, I was surprised, I was dreading placing the order.

[Jeff Roltgen]

There does seem to be an odd disconnect/dual dynamic looking at construction materials vs cabinet grade materials.
IIRC, it took almost a full year after pandemic began and building materials went crazy, before the cabinet grade sheet goods and hardwoods took off in cost.

My local distributor had an interesting statement, regarding the price jumps. Something to the effect that "if it's got white wood in it (EG:veneer and particle core plys), it's going up"

I get that, but is the delay because hardwood harvesters and mills were running solid during that time, while the softwood loggers and mills were shut down?
Or, did loggers in the northeast harvesting hardwoods face quarantine shutdowns a year later than those in the pacific NW harvesting the whitewood lumber, and that caused the pricing to finally take off?

But wait, if hardwood plys have whitewood cores (pine, hemlock, fir), why were they stable for a year or so, while pine hemlock and fir for construction sheet goods and dimensional lumber almost immediately jacked up?

Still scratching my head, but the cynic in me says something smells funny about the whole situation.

All that aside, I'll agree that, at least the news says it should not be elevated much longer, and hoping that prediction eventually pans out.

[Bruce Wrenn]

Look for a lot of lenders to take over housing projects, just as they did in 2008. Near here is a development that they have been moving dirt for almost two years. Streets not yet completed, and no houses started. With interest rates going the way they are, planned houses,and lot size will need to be greatly reduced, thus reducing the likely hood of recovering the costs of development. Many "high end" housing projects are turning into "unaffordable housing" projects. Son works for well respected builder of custom homes. Size of house customer can afford has dropped by almost 50%. Less house, equils less lumber demand, and lowering of prices

[Steve Rozmiarek]

I watch a couple "bellwether" products to keep tabs on local prices. 2x11 7/8 TJI have been the same 3x 2022 prices all year, no moving. One particular cabinet from our prefered supplier, has increased throughout 2022 to be 3x 2022. 2x6 framing lumber, is off it's peak numbers, earlier this year they were $2.50/ft, now a bargain at $1/ft.

Still can't get garage doors, raw closed cell spray foam is off the charts unrealistic, and steel is high again. Lots of stuff made from, with and hauled by oil. Lumber is coming down, but all the other stuff that goes into a house now has to work the high oil cost of the last year out. Assuming oil goes down. It's a teeter totter on materials pricing, the overall cost of a house is the same inflated prices as it was at the beginning of 2022.

Hate to be pessimistic, but this drunken economy will not recover to 2020 levels until the obvious factors that changed it are removed.

[Peter Schussheim]

I watch a couple "bellwether" products to keep tabs on local prices. 2x11 7/8 TJI have been the same 3x 2022 prices all year, no moving. One particular cabinet from our prefered supplier, has increased throughout 2022 to be 3x 2022. 2x6 framing lumber, is off it's peak numbers, earlier this year they were $2.50/ft, now a bargain at $1/ft.

Still can't get garage doors, raw closed cell spray foam is off the charts unrealistic, and steel is high again. Lots of stuff made from, with and hauled by oil. Lumber is coming down, but all the other stuff that goes into a house now has to work the high oil cost of the last year out. Assuming oil goes down. It's a teeter totter on materials pricing, the overall cost of a house is the same inflated prices as it was at the beginning of 2022.

Hate to be pessimistic, but this drunken economy will not recover to 2022 levels until the obvious factors that changed it are removed.


That isn't pessimistic at all, you are being REALISTIC!

[Johannes Becker]

Lumber prices are still higher than I like them and it is anybodies guess when and how far they are going to fall. However, if you are interested in the price trends so far have a look at the FED producer price data. It is pretty detailed and you can look at hardwood vs softwood veneer and plywood. It tells the same story we all know. Producer prices for softwood plywood are still 73% higher than in January 2020 and hardwood plywood (which has seen much less variation over the last years) is up 33%.

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source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33535

[Brian Tymchak]

....Producer prices for softwood plywood are still 73% higher than in January 2020 and hardwood plywood (which has seen much less variation over the last years) is up 33%.


I don't have data to support my perspective but I believe hardwood ply at the retail level is up much more than just 33% over that time period. My guess is it's more like 75-100%. I haven't been an ardent supporter of the "price gouge" that's been theorized by some, but I wonder if maybe we are seeing some of that at some point in the supply chain.

[Johannes Becker]

Agreed on the harwood ply I am watching here locally. That is generally the limitation of a producer price index that it is not necessarily running parallel to a consumer price level. But it gives some support to the thought that we are probably not going to go back to the 2020 price level soon.

[Rick Potter]

Steve's 'obvious factors' remark made me chuckle a bit.

[Bryan Hall]

I don't see major hardwood venders lowering prices here, but the small mill guys and the CL guys are offering lower pricing so I think th trend is down, fingers crossed.

Agreed. A few of our local little mills have also released statements that they won't be doing many slabs in the future, switching to dimensional boards because they can't move the slabs any longer. I'm thrilled for that, things got a little slab crazy around here for the last few years and I was never into it.

[andrew whicker]

The construction lumber prices seem fair to me as they are. Where that price goes is the black box. We pay over $5 / gallon and oil companies make record profits... I don't expect the business leaders in the lumber world are any different.

If the prices are up because they are going towards 1) higher wages and 2) some sort of environment cost then I'm happy. Number 2 is certainly not happening and Number 1 is suspect. I'm guessing we are paying extra for some bonuses. And that extra will take a while to go down. Prices go up quickly and fall a lot less quickly.

Also, the housing market was crazy with such a low interest rate. I'm no economist, but the whole situation seemed untenable. How much SHOULD it cost to borrow money? Probably more than 2 percent? Probably less McMansions is a good thing? IDK.

I'm just trying to do quality work and I hope that will carry me thru.