Luke Dupont
01-08-2022, 9:44 PM
For the last two years, I've been bringing forward purchases of things that I consider "essential" and that I'll want to have for the next 3-5 years, or a life time.
I correctly predicted stagflation and supply chain disruptions well before the mainstream media / economists recognized this would be an issue. Not really hard to do if you just rid yourself of normalcy bias and think in terms of supply and demand, but I digress...
So far, it has been a net benefit. I built my new Desktop computer (a dual purpose gaming / software development machine, which is designed to run both Windows and 2-3 Linux Distros) just before the semiconductor shortage, and in doing so probably saved $400.
My tool purchases are really hurting, though. If I were to fairly value the Yen against the Dollar, based solely on the quality and quantity of things I can buy in Japan with the Yen versus in the US with the Dollar, I would have cut the value of the dollar before the pandemic by 20-30%, and currently, I would devalue the dollar by no less than 50%. Prices are pretty ridiculous in dollar terms. There's been no real price inflation here in Japan yet, whilst prices of many things are up 20-30% in dollar terms, yet exchange rates have given the dollar a free pass and not factored in inflation. I expect this to reverse in spectacular order, at some point -- though likely not as quickly as anyone sharing my view would be apt to predict.
And what is with shipping from the UK these days? Literally any and everything from the UK costs like $40-$50 to ship, no matter how small. So many tools are now held hostage in that country.
The thing that I probably should have really been hoarding is wood though. Forget gold and silver. Wood is the new gold, it seems :D
Alas though, I didn't have a stock of wood because I've been moving and living in small apartments and not really woodworking again until just recently.
Anyway, none of this is investing advise, but I am curious if anyone else has been doing or feeling the same. Do you notice the cost of wood and tools increasing, and availability decreasing?
I can only think we should expect more of this in the near future...
I correctly predicted stagflation and supply chain disruptions well before the mainstream media / economists recognized this would be an issue. Not really hard to do if you just rid yourself of normalcy bias and think in terms of supply and demand, but I digress...
So far, it has been a net benefit. I built my new Desktop computer (a dual purpose gaming / software development machine, which is designed to run both Windows and 2-3 Linux Distros) just before the semiconductor shortage, and in doing so probably saved $400.
My tool purchases are really hurting, though. If I were to fairly value the Yen against the Dollar, based solely on the quality and quantity of things I can buy in Japan with the Yen versus in the US with the Dollar, I would have cut the value of the dollar before the pandemic by 20-30%, and currently, I would devalue the dollar by no less than 50%. Prices are pretty ridiculous in dollar terms. There's been no real price inflation here in Japan yet, whilst prices of many things are up 20-30% in dollar terms, yet exchange rates have given the dollar a free pass and not factored in inflation. I expect this to reverse in spectacular order, at some point -- though likely not as quickly as anyone sharing my view would be apt to predict.
And what is with shipping from the UK these days? Literally any and everything from the UK costs like $40-$50 to ship, no matter how small. So many tools are now held hostage in that country.
The thing that I probably should have really been hoarding is wood though. Forget gold and silver. Wood is the new gold, it seems :D
Alas though, I didn't have a stock of wood because I've been moving and living in small apartments and not really woodworking again until just recently.
Anyway, none of this is investing advise, but I am curious if anyone else has been doing or feeling the same. Do you notice the cost of wood and tools increasing, and availability decreasing?
I can only think we should expect more of this in the near future...