Any chance of construction lumber prices going down in six months?

[Bill Dufour]

Lumber is about 100% higher with covid since 12 months ago. More homes are starting to be built. Any thoughts on construction lumber prices in the next 12 months?
Bill D

[Richard Verwoest]

I think once Disneyland reopens, the prices will fall.

[Mel Fulks]

Lumber is about 100% higher with covid since 12 months ago. More homes are starting to be built. Any thoughts on construction lumber prices in the next 12 months?
Bill D
None. That’s just the way it is when everybody “comes into a lot of money”.

[Jim Becker]

Honestly...I doubt there will be any meaningful reduction until maybe later in the year. Supply and transportation is a challenge. take a look off the left coast at all the ships waiting for very long times to get unloaded. That's one thing that's contributing.

[johnny means]

I would expect prices to go up as cold weather states start construction projects.

[Robert D Evans]

I think the next year is going to be a rollercoaster in the economy. I predict a lot of foreclosures, evictions and bankruptcies from people who have been financially ruined by last years closures. However, there is also a housing shortage, at least around here. We haven't seen many houses built since the crash of 2008 and the demand has exceeded the supply. It will be interesting to see which of these two factors has the most influence on the economy. I expect building materials to remain high till at least the end of the year. The spread between the haves and the have-nots will take another leap in 2021.

[Mel Fulks]

Robert ,thats possible . But there are not many U.S. Citizens who are “have nots”. Wealth attracts the needy.

[eugene thomas]

wonder how many people are working on their house cause where forced to be stuck in it. cant spend money on that dream vacation ...

[Lee Schierer]

I would doubt it. There has been a noticeable increase in new home construction around here in the past month and the home stores were busy through most of the past 9 months. For a while you had to wait 2-3 weeks to get any amount of treated lumber. Even drywall was in low supply. I know I personally did a couple of minor remodeling projects during the fall. With the real estate market starving for homes to buy, I see lots of new construction in the future. I have a nephew in Texas, who placed bids on several new homes and before they could finish the paper work, they were out bid, so they are building a new home.

[Ron Citerone]

As long as interest rates stay low there will be a demand for houses and builders will build. If inflation kicks up, and interest rate increases is the cure, things could change in a big way.

So my call is no price reduction in building supplies as long as the economy stays strong via low rates.

Free predictions are worth every penny paid for them. ;)

[Jack Frederick]

Steel prices are up 50% since 1/1/21. The same happened in ‘16.

[John K Jordan]

Lumber is about 100% higher with covid since 12 months ago. More homes are starting to be built. Any thoughts on construction lumber prices in the next 12 months?
Bill D

My source said there was a chance. Didn't indicate how much chance. I could ask again or just flip a coin.

454315

[Alex Zeller]

There's too many unknowns right now. As more and more people get the vaccine it'll help companies get back to full production. At the same time fuel prices are jumping up. That's going to make it hard on everything from the loggers to trucking. Despite the push by some for EVs I don't see skidders or semi's hauling logs as switching any time soon.

[Steve Rozmiarek]

Why would prices go down? They have to stabilize first, and they are definitely not doing that. I've bought units of 7/16 and 5/8 ZIP sheeting 4 times since last summer, price on the 7/16 started at $23, and is now up to $36, but stock is low. 5/8 started lower, at $22 and now is $45. There is too much volatility out there, wholesalers have inventory priced all over the place, so nothing is going to go down until the wacky priced stock is used up and replaced with more consistent cost materials. Maybe next year if the government doesn't do something stupid. haha, better buckle up.

[Steve Rozmiarek]

There's too many unknowns right now. As more and more people get the vaccine it'll help companies get back to full production. At the same time fuel prices are jumping up. That's going to make it hard on everything from the loggers to trucking. Despite the push by some for EVs I don't see skidders or semi's hauling logs as switching any time soon.

You're kidding yourself if you think a vaccine will make the government get out of the way and let loggers work. I'll bet that diesel prices will be double by the end of summer. Buy the lumber you need now, you won't see it cheaper until the government lets go of this pandemic nonsense, which has a likelihood of nearly 1%.

[glenn bradley]

I get some of the industry feeds. Some say (https://www.trinitybuildingsystems.com/education-center/price-of-lumber-decline-2021/) things will "stabilize" later this year. Like the spike in prices of coffee, gasoline or Baltic Birch during the previous crises, I would never expect the industry to reduce prices back where they were once they have trained us to pay more. That's just bad business.

[Tom M King]

Looks like lumber futures has peaked, and started going down, but trucking prices are still stupid high. Us timber growers are not seeing much benefit, nor are the loggers.

[Rod Wolfy]

I think it will stay high. I have a friend that bid a fence job. He couldn't purchase any fencing at any Home Depot in the region and had to go to a different store and paid $.55 per board higher. As the construction industry picks up in the spring, demand goes up; however, the supply is limited and fuel is going crazy due to Biden restrictions. This will drive the lumber prices much higher thru the summer.

[Aaron Middleton]

You're kidding yourself if you think a vaccine will make the government get out of the way and let loggers work. I'll bet that diesel prices will be double by the end of summer. Buy the lumber you need now, you won't see it cheaper until the government lets go of this pandemic nonsense, which has a likelihood of nearly 1%.

This “pandemic nonsense” killed 3 of my close family members. I don’t see it as nonsense.

Regardless, to the original question, I don’t think you’re likely to see prices drop any time soon. The last few times I’ve been to to a big box store, it seemed like prices for lumber had actually increased by about 10-20%. I scrapped plans for a deck in the short term due to the very limited supply of our local places.

[Mel Fulks]

The deaths are real. The vaccines are working. The messages are changing daily. From a lot of different places ,especially from Fauci.
Since he’s always smiling ....you have to listen to him to know if news is good or bad. I now wait for the news people to translate and edit.
I wish Edgar Bergen was around to help him speak.

[Jim Becker]

THIS IS A REMINDER....discussion of the pandemic has been banned in this forum site. This is not out of insensitivity to those affected in horrific ways; rather, it's because just like with other prohibited topics, things go off the rails. This thread is about lumber prices and while it's fine to acknowledge that the pandemic is causal, getting into discussing said pandemic beyond that is not going to happen.

[Gregory King]

Going to be high for a while. Most likely end of the construction season before it levels off even a bit. Two by 6" by 8' spruce studs are $9.50 up here presently. Usually in the range of $5.

[Brian W Evans]

...fuel is going crazy due to Biden restrictions.

Rod,

I hadn't heard about this. Can you elaborate? Might affect my plans for the next 9 months...

[Paul Schaefer]

I did some reading on this a few weeks ago when I went to buy some 2x4s and had some serious sticker shock. These were the conclusions that I pulled out from various online business and trade publications:
1. Lumber prices are up by 170% over the last year, which jives with what I thought I remember paying last year versus three weeks ago.
2. Lumber milling generally wasn't considered an essential economic function during the COVID shutdowns, restricting supply
3. Lumber mills also deliberately slowed down production. They anticipated an economic slowdown due to the COVID shutdowns and decreased demand. If they were right, and kept at their production levels, there would have been a glut of supply on the market, driving prices down. So they proactively acted to limit supply and keep prices stable.
4. While the economy did slow down, there was a sector of the economy that was still doing fine. There were workers in those sectors who weren't spending money on going out to restaurants or shows or doing any travel. Those that were now working from home and not commuting also had a lot of time. People with time and money on their hands kicked off a renovation boom, driving demand up instead of down.
5. One source also cited Pres. Trump's tariffs on Canada as restricting supply. I remember the Canada tariffs being mostly on steel and aluminum production, but if softwood lumber lumber was included in the tariff package, that would have certainly decreased supply.

So between the restriction in supply and the boom in demand, prices have gone way up. Basic economics. The general message was that mills are ramping up production, but it's not not like flicking a switch - there'll be a lag between the decision to produce more and more stock actually hitting the system. The same article I read on the tariffs says that the housing industry is pushing the Biden administration to reduce tariffs on Canadian softwoods, which would increase supply. Another article talked about housing starts in the US actually decreasing because of the soaring price of lumber, which might decrease demand (things may have changed on that front in the last few weeks, haven't been tracking that). Overall message was that prices would probably stabilize and drop over the next 6-12 months as these supply and demand factors get back to something that looks more like a pre-pandemic state.

(Take this all with a grain of salt. I'm not in the industry, and this is just the results of me doing some research to satisfy my curiosity, not any in-depth project by a real economist).)

[Steve Rozmiarek]

I did some reading on this a few weeks ago when I went to buy some 2x4s and had some serious sticker shock. These were the conclusions that I pulled out from various online business and trade publications:
1. Lumber prices are up by 170% over the last year, which jives with what I thought I remember paying last year versus three weeks ago.
2. Lumber milling generally wasn't considered an essential economic function during the COVID shutdowns, restricting supply
3. Lumber mills also deliberately slowed down production. They anticipated an economic slowdown due to the COVID shutdowns and decreased demand. If they were right, and kept at their production levels, there would have been a glut of supply on the market, driving prices down. So they proactively acted to limit supply and keep prices stable.
4. While the economy did slow down, there was a sector of the economy that was still doing fine. There were workers in those sectors who weren't spending money on going out to restaurants or shows or doing any travel. Those that were now working from home and not commuting also had a lot of time. People with time and money on their hands kicked off a renovation boom, driving demand up instead of down.
5. One source also cited Pres. Trump's tariffs on Canada as restricting supply. I remember the Canada tariffs being mostly on steel and aluminum production, but if softwood lumber lumber was included in the tariff package, that would have certainly decreased supply.

So between the restriction in supply and the boom in demand, prices have gone way up. Basic economics. The general message was that mills are ramping up production, but it's not not like flicking a switch - there'll be a lag between the decision to produce more and more stock actually hitting the system. The same article I read on the tariffs says that the housing industry is pushing the Biden administration to reduce tariffs on Canadian softwoods, which would increase supply. Another article talked about housing starts in the US actually decreasing because of the soaring price of lumber, which might decrease demand (things may have changed on that front in the last few weeks, haven't been tracking that). Overall message was that prices would probably stabilize and drop over the next 6-12 months as these supply and demand factors get back to something that looks more like a pre-pandemic state.

(Take this all with a grain of salt. I'm not in the industry, and this is just the results of me doing some research to satisfy my curiosity, not any in-depth project by a real economist).)

Paul, I agree, but I'd suggest adding stocks availability and fuel costs into the equation as an exacerbating circumstance that will push normalcy out further. That ZIP sheeting I mentioned is sourcing from multiple places to fill my relatively small orders. Equals more exposure to shipping cost increases and small units of materials bouncing all over to fill orders when a wholesaler can't fill from their inventory. Supply fixes that, but I can't see how it's possible within the 6 to 12 months, even if things get back to normal. If it was September, maybe, but not mid March.

[John Goodin]

Thanks Jim.

[John Goodin]

I don’t see how supply will outpace demand to the point where a 2x4 is less than three bucks until we have a major housing crisis or a long term new construction slowdown.

[Steve Rozmiarek]

I don’t see how supply will outpace demand to the point where a 2x4 is less than three bucks until we have a major housing crisis or a long term new construction slowdown.

The quickest way that could happen would be a massive interest rate hike.

[Rick Fisher]

I am in the lumber business. I own lumberyards and have been in the business for 38 years. I can tell you that nobody knows. History says lumber prices will go back down. Pricing is high because of supply and demand, as supply increases the price will fall. If demand falls, which is likely, the price will fall. Nobody knows when.

We expect the rest of the year to be high priced. People ask how can 1400 dollars or 2000 dollars in someone's hands create inflation ? The reality is the recipients are only possessing that money for a very short time. After they get it, who gets it next ? Who gets it after that?

[Jacob Mac]

Prices rocket up and float down like a feather. I wouldn't count on a significant decrease. Watch the velocity of money. If it picks up and you have a large supply of capitol chasing limited goods, I doubt prices decrease.

[Andrew More]

I can tell you that nobody knows.
This is correct answer. FWIW, lumber prices bounce around a bit anyway, it's just generally smoothed out by the big box stores, via various contracts and the like. I know even after lumber had gone through the roof Menards was still selling it at regular prices. I'd expect a similar lag time on the way down, assuming it ever goes down.

454419

This is a 5 year chart, and you'll notice we've had some spikes, most notably in 2018. It also seems like it spikes whenever there's a large natural disaster, like a hurricane.


People ask how can 1400 dollars or 2000 dollars in someone's hands create inflation ? The reality is the recipients are only possessing that money for a very short time. After they get it, who gets it next ? Who gets it after that?
This is the other element. A wise man once said that if you can predict inflation, you'd be wealthy beyond the dreams of Midas. Right now there are a few competing forces which are determining if we're going to get inflation, deflation, or something in between.

The big questions are:
1) is this enough to fill the hole in the economy caused by the lockdowns?
2) what will happen with this money once it's in people's hands? If you spend it, and so does the next person and the next person the velocity of money increases, making more money in the system, causing inflation. If people just gamble it away, or put it into a mattress the velocity of money drops, and there is deflation. For the past 10 years the velocity has been decreasing, and it fell off a cliff during the pandemic. Survey's have also indicated that people are paying down debt, and gambling on the stock market, both of which are not inflationary.

In this particular market, it's also a question of what the housing market will do. Having a rising housing market in the midst of a recession is a little nuts. Having one with so little supply even more so. However, there are also record numbers of people unemployed, with a record number of mortgages in forebearance, which might move into foreclosure when the music stops. Massive numbers of homes in foreclosure will fix the supply issues, in addition to being massively deflationary.

So, once again, nobody knows what's going to happen. I'd guess that it's likely prices will be elevated for some time, and the longer they stay up, the more likely they are to stay that way.

[Jeff Ramsey]

Today I paid $8.50 for one .... ONE fir 2x4x8' !!!!!

[Ron Citerone]

I wonder how much demand is due to new construction and how much is due to additions/renovations?

[Robert Hayward]

Today I paid $8.50 for one .... ONE fir 2x4x8' !!!!!

I could not believe a 2X4 could cost that much. So I went online to my local HD. Standard construction grade was $6.75 and PT was $10.00 and change! Then came across this in the picture below!:eek:

[David Bassett]

I wonder how much demand is due to new construction and how much is due to additions/renovations?

I have no idea overall, but we were talking to our contractor about a list of several small maintenance projects around our house. (Beyond my skill set or too physical for me these days.) They initially said they had work but weren't too busy, when our estimate didn't arrive on time my wife called. They apologized and admitted they'd forgotten our job. I'm guessing the insurance money started coming in from a local fire, one of the smaller of the recent CA fires, and they were slammed with about a dozen complete rebuild or replace lost houses in the hills above us. So here, it seems to be neither, but rather the natural disaster theory suggested above.

[Eric Anderson]

The Canadian softwoods tariffs is I believe 30%. So if Pres Biden eliminates this ridiculous tariff that might help to bring down prices and increase supply of Canadian softwoods coming into the US. On fuel prices, this is two fold. A number of Texas Gulf coast refineries went down in the storm due to freezing and electrical blackouts. This seriously disrupted supply of diesel and premium fuels. Also Russia and OPEC are manipulating global supply to try to get prices up. I suspect that we'll see oil stabilize at about $65/bbl. And BTW, there is really nothing any president or congress can do to change oil pricing as oil pricing is completely dependent on international conditions.

[Steve Rozmiarek]

The Canadian softwoods tariffs is I believe 30%. So if Pres Biden eliminates this ridiculous tariff that might help to bring down prices and increase supply of Canadian softwoods coming into the US. On fuel prices, this is two fold. A number of Texas Gulf coast refineries went down in the storm due to freezing and electrical blackouts. This seriously disrupted supply of diesel and premium fuels. Also Russia and OPEC are manipulating global supply to try to get prices up. I suspect that we'll see oil stabilize at about $65/bbl. And BTW, there is really nothing any president or congress can do to change oil pricing as oil pricing is completely dependent on international conditions.

Construction lumber prices are up over 100%, when the production in north america shut down, as did the supply chain, for most of 2020, we get what happened. The tariff had very little to do with it, there is no huge backlog of 70% cheaper lumber preparing to flood the market from Canada.

Obviously oil prices are politically controlled, 1/3 to 2/3 of the costs of a gallon of diesel is tax. If OPEC and the refineries said diesel was free, I'd still pay nearly a $1/gallon in taxes here. That varies per location, you happen to live in a cheap state. Take a second to thank goodness you don't have the California fuel tax burden. I'll let you draw your own conclusions on the different political systems of those two states.

[Jeff Ramsey]

The Canadian softwoods tariffs is I believe 30%. So if Pres Biden eliminates this ridiculous tariff that might help to bring down prices and increase supply of Canadian softwoods coming into the US. On fuel prices, this is two fold. A number of Texas Gulf coast refineries went down in the storm due to freezing and electrical blackouts. This seriously disrupted supply of diesel and premium fuels. Also Russia and OPEC are manipulating global supply to try to get prices up. I suspect that we'll see oil stabilize at about $65/bbl. And BTW, there is really nothing any president or congress can do to change oil pricing as oil pricing is completely dependent on international conditions.

The softwoods tariff is 9% (it was just over 20% but was reduced in December), and is justified because almost all timber in Canada is owned by Provincial Govts who set the harvesting price. It’s not competitively set and therefore is considered a Govt subsidy (this dispute has been going on for decades). The softwoods tariff appears to have little to do with the current lumber pricing, which is supply chain and demand based.

Here’s an interesting read.

https://www.dwmmag.com/disputes-over-softwood-lumber-rage-on-following-tariff-reduction/

[Alex Zeller]

I don't know how this impacts the price of wood but in the past it was very common to see rail cars loaded with lumber coming down from Canada or empty ones returning. I haven't seen much of that lately. In fact I haven't seen may trains at all. Could be they shifted the time they pass by this area or are running a lot fewer trains.

[Peter Kelly]

The price of cedar has been climbing over the last few years and is at a ridiculous high now. I don't really see it ever going back down to where it was in 2015.

[Jeff Ramsey]

I drove from southeastern PA to New Hampton, NY in September for that very reason; red cedar prices. I found a lumber yard in New Hampton that bought a large flat of miscellaneous red cedar and he had the posts I needed, along with some other 2x's. His price was less than half what I could get locally. The pergola is finished, but I wouldn't build it now because of red cedar prices.

[Mike Soaper]

The owner of a local garden shop and I were talking about the high lumber prices, and he said one of his regular customers is a builder/contractor that because of the crazy lumber prices now gives quotes that are only good for 7 days

[Peter Kelly]

I drove from southeastern PA to New Hampton, NY in September for that very reason; red cedar prices. I found a lumber yard in New Hampton that bought a large flat of miscellaneous red cedar and he had the posts I needed, along with some other 2x's. His price was less than half what I could get locally. The pergola is finished, but I wouldn't build it now because of red cedar prices.This guy? https://newhamptonlumberco.com/

Didn’t realize he had dimensional cedar, will have to check him out.

[Jeff Ramsey]

Yep, that's the place.

[Thomas Colson]

As of today, lumber is 197% higher than a year ago (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price) and is forecast to dip A LITTLE by the end of this year (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber), with Globex showing a sharper dip in May-Jan quotes. (https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/lumber-and-pulp/random-length-lumber_quotes_globex_options.html#optionProductId= 2499&strikeRang) I suspect hedge fund managers put a bit more calculation in their models than a lumber yard purchasing agent, but either way, I wouldn't expect pre-rona lumber prices, ever. Another issue we have is these prices have been doing nothing but go up, and places like the BORG still can't keep wood on the shelves! So even if the sawmill comes down, BORG has already learned what the market is willing to pay so they have no incentive to lower prices despite what the sawyer is selling it for. My 2 cents, starting in about 12, and lasting for another 12 months, we're going to see a massive amount of SFH's hitting the market as landlords get out of the business due to the massive amount of people not paying rent right now (either legit or not legit reason), or, same situation and the banks foreclose. I think that will put the brakes on this new construction boom and only then will we see somewhat normal, albeit adjusted for inflation, prices. Good friend of mine is a mortgage banker for a local bank, and about 10% of his portfolio is investment property owners in that situation (not getting rent). He's thinking that in 2022 they're not going to be underwriting a lot of new construction. The only good thing I've seen is my local hardwood supplier doesn't seem to have gotten any higher over the past year. Didn't help me when I needed a lot of plywood though. And yes, there are some other factors contributing, fuel prices are rising rapidly, timber sales in national forests dropping just as fast. For contractors, I wouldn't even give a 7 day limit on a quote, I'd just quote "Materials cost at the time of purchase" or let the home owner buy their own materials.

[Alex Zeller]

Any time there's a strong demand for a product the prices will rise to match that demand. At the same time those selling said item will increase the supply to take full advantage of the high price. Right now labor is an issue. Lots of places around here are hiring but nobody seems to want to work. I often hear ads on the radio for companies trying to hire people at wages close to $20/hr. If nothing else the bottom will fall out during the next recession.

[Bill Dufour]

I'd still pay nearly a $1/gallon in taxes here. That varies per location, you happen to live in a cheap state. Take a second to thank goodness you don't have the California fuel tax burden. I'll let you draw your own conclusions on the different political systems of those two states.[/QUOTE]


California fuel tax is about 47 cents per gallon on gasoline and 36 cents on diesel. Plus sales tax. Sounds like a lot less then in your state? Of course California fuel is custom blended to met California smog requirements so no outside competition.
I am surprised our taxes are less then yours.
We still have some of the worlds largest oil fields producing.
Bill D

[Brian Holcombe]

The Canadian softwoods tariffs is I believe 30%. So if Pres Biden eliminates this ridiculous tariff that might help to bring down prices and increase supply of Canadian softwoods coming into the US. On fuel prices, this is two fold. A number of Texas Gulf coast refineries went down in the storm due to freezing and electrical blackouts. This seriously disrupted supply of diesel and premium fuels. Also Russia and OPEC are manipulating global supply to try to get prices up. I suspect that we'll see oil stabilize at about $65/bbl. And BTW, there is really nothing any president or congress can do to change oil pricing as oil pricing is completely dependent on international conditions.

The spike in oil pricing is partially due to disruptions but mainly due to oil companies (globally) taking projects offline during the supply glut last year in February. Some of them come back online quickly, others do not. Last year the industry’s capacity could soak up short term disruptions, this year it cannot since they are running very lean operations.

[Alex Zeller]

When I was close to finishing building my house a hurricane hit Florida. People were renting u-hauls and filling them with lumber to drive down to Florida. As a result prices shot up like crazy. I beat the rush (and had to drive to 3 different stores to get the shingles I needed) so the price increase didn't impact me. Of course that was a smaller event localized to a few states and didn't impact the mills or logging. This may be larger but when there's demand people see money and look for a way to fill that demand. That always drives prices back down. It may not be until next spring but they'll come down.

[Steve Rozmiarek]

I posted about the sheet goods prices earlier in this thread, but see it's alive again so thought I'd put an update up.

The 5/8" roof sheeting we use most often, I was paying upper $20's for 2 years ago, late last year it went into the $30's, a month ago it was $50. Today it is $83.95 per sheet, and I can only buy 45 sheets because thats all they have.

[Edwin Santos]

This may be larger but when there's demand people see money and look for a way to fill that demand. That always drives prices back down. It may not be until next spring but they'll come down.

I sincerely hope you're right. The problem is, I've never had any luck timing these things.
It seems that everything in our world is more complicated than it used to be. I wonder if the price increases we're seeing across all kinds of industries/commodities are due to a confluence of factors.
Pandemic supply chain disruption might certainly be one.
Re-directed consumer demand might be another.
I've even heard it said that with the money supply that has been flooded into the economy, it's the currency that has been devaluing. So the price increases are not a function of supply and demand of the good or service, but the expression of its value in dollar terms. This could influence asset values too, which might in part explain the rapid escalation in home prices.
Combination of all of the above plus other issues?
Who knows. Way above the pay grade of a luddite hand cutting dovetail joints in a wood shop (ha).

[Mark Blatter]

I read that one of the biggest drivers in the price spikes of lumber is that supply has dropped a significant amount. Canada, like the western US, had many forests hit hard with beetles in the 1990s. Unlike the US, Canada allowed those forests to be harvested, which they did for many years. However, from what I read, much of those forests were cleared out by the mid 2000s. What kept the price of lumber down for years was the great recession and housing collapse. I read that the high point for lumber usage was in 2004 I think, at about 74 billion board feet. It dropped by large amount, though I don't remember how much. A few years ago it was running about 50 billion annually, and over the past year has increased about 10%, to around 55 billion board feet. That increase, combined with the mills shutting down for a few months, and more importantly Canada not producing nearly as much, has resulted in much higher prices.

A likely solution that will help us out is that there is lots of lumber in Europe and we will start seeing large amounts being imported into the country soon. Likely we will never see $2.00 for a 2x4x8 again, but it should help bring down the price to perhaps half of what we see today. At least that is my hope.

A side note, a friend was starting construction on a 115 unit apartment complex in June of 2020. His framer told him that lumber prices were going up, so they bought the entire amount of lumber needed immediately. He had to pay $5000 per month to store it all for 6 months. That move cost him $30,000 in storage fees, but saved him overall over $250,000 due to higher lumber costs.

[William Bell]

Bought 10 sheets of 3/4 inch plywood, worst junk I ever saw for covering caissons after they were drilled. $67.98 at Home Depot per sheet. Prices will go down but we will never see 2x4,s at $3 again unless we our in a depression. Personally, I think that is where we are headed.

[Carroll Courtney]

Good Youtube on the subject
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ssa7yooX3k

[Larry Edgerton]

I posted about the sheet goods prices earlier in this thread, but see it's alive again so thought I'd put an update up.

The 5/8" roof sheeting we use most often, I was paying upper $20's for 2 years ago, late last year it went into the $30's, a month ago it was $50. Today it is $83.95 per sheet, and I can only buy 45 sheets because thats all they have.

I was going to say that 100% was a pretty conservative estimate. My local supplier keeps track of a list of essential materials and it is up 260% from a year and a half ago. I am getting calls from jobs I bid that did not fly over a year ago telling me to go ahead. I just laugh.

[Larry Edgerton]

3/4" Hard Maple Plywood C-2 UV Coated-2-Sides
102.96
100.80
96.00

93.60






I have a kitchen coming up and just looked up good 2 sides prefinished 3/4" and was surprised that it has only gone up $5.00 a sheet by the full lift. I was kind of hoping that that lift I have in the barn was worth more, damn'it!

[Peter Kelly]

https://i.imgur.com/8D0Bbdf.jpg

I don't see how anyone is going to want to (or afford to) build a deck with prices like this.

[Dave Sabo]

Steel and aluminum posts.

Composite decking.