Push to wind and solar from fossil fuel

[Ole Anderson]

Wind and solar seem to be the big upcoming replacements for fossil fuel. But with both of those dependent on sunshine and wind, how are they addressing the huge demand during times when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing? Pumped storage and batteries? I don't see much discussion there.

[John Lanciani]

All of the solar and all of the wind generation is backed up by fossil fuel, primarily natural gas. Burning gas to generate electricity isn’t going away any time soon unless people want to accept regular interruptions of supply.

[Steve Demuth]

Wind and solar seem to be the big upcoming replacements for fossil fuel. But with both of those dependent on sunshine and wind, how are they addressing the huge demand during times when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing? Pumped storage and batteries? I don't see much discussion there.

There are two strategies for dealing with the interrupted nature of wind and solar:

1. Wind and sun vary from location to location, but are predictable on continental scales.

2. Batteries (or other storage technologies).

The first means that the actual power available to a continental grid is reasonably predictable, so we can build a grid that can move power from where it is available to where it isn't. The second acknowledges that there will be big live power deficits and surfeits even on a continental scale, but says that these can be addressed by storing power when there is too much, and drawing storage down when there is too little.

We have a surge of both wind and solar in Iowa. There are at least three significant battery projects in our corner of Iowa being built right now, because the RECs and commercial power companies have both reached the point where they generate too much power during peak sunshine that can be recycled as baseline power cost effectively with regional batteries.

I have spec'd out an on-farm system that does the same on a purely local scale, to be built next year. I think I can affordably get to where I am a net generator of about 50% more power than I use year over year, with almost zero baseline draw from the grid (that is, I reverse the reality, true right now, that I am using the grid as a big battery for my solar/wind generation to make it a stable power source, to where I am a predictable generation source and battery for the grid.

[Jim Becker]

There are multiple paths to address those issues. The grid is interconnected so power can flow from areas where generation is happening. Wind generation tends to be located where prevailing winds are generally constant (never assured) (both on and off-shore) and there is a lot of solar collection heading to areas that generally have higher daily average levels of sunlight over time...the desert southwest of the US is one example there. Solar is also becoming more and more popular in on-site residential and commercial properties which in many cases also augments the grid. Battery banks are getting more popular in residential and commercial space, too. And as was already mentioned, NG (predominantly over time) generation will not likely go away. It's not an all or nothing proposition to embrace solar and wind generation. They are already providing more power to the grid than many folks imagine. Reducing dependence on "dirtier" generation is the major point right now. In the future, we'll see what happens as new technologies come into play...a lot of stuff we've enjoyed in "science fiction" continue to inch closer to reality!

[andrew whicker]

I was reading an article this morning about quantum computing. Apparently one of the problems with a next gen battery (sulfur lithium... know nothing about batteries) that is being worked is figuring out how to configure the molecules. This problem seems to need quantum computing to figure out the solution.. traditional computing is too slow even with super computers.

Interesting how much tech is interlaced with other tech.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/quantum-computers-are-coming-get-ready-for-them-to-change-everything/

[Bill Dufour]

There is talk of using excess solar and wind power to pump Colorado river water upstream. 30-100 miles and let it flow down over the hydroelectric dams over and over. Not really feasible due to low flows and legal commitments to share water between states and countries. Those commitments were based on historical unusually high flows which no longer exist.
Bill D.
I could see the second one as an elevator on the side of the grand canyon with parking lots around the elevator top and bottom to store the blocks.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-first-big-solar-battery-discovers-highs-and-lows-of-energy-market-49142/

https://qz.com/1355672/stacking-concrete-blocks-is-a-surprisingly-efficient-way-to-store-energy/

[Jim Becker]

I was reading an article this morning about quantum computing. Apparently one of the problems with a next gen battery (sulfur lithium... know nothing about batteries) that is being worked is figuring out how to configure the molecules. This problem seems to need quantum computing to figure out the solution.. traditional computing is too slow even with super computers.

Interesting how much tech is interlaced with other tech.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/quantum-computers-are-coming-get-ready-for-them-to-change-everything/

Yea, big strides forward in computational power/speed combined with AI will likely help get new technologies moving. The modeling required for development has gotten so over the top that it's like trying to use a 1980s era Radio Shack desk calculator that only adds, subtracts, multiplies and divides to do quantum physics...

[andrew whicker]

It is true that batteries are 'just' a form of chemical energy storage.... no reason not to explore other energy storage options. Sometimes I wish I was a better engineer so I could be working on these cool science projects instead of building things! : )

I'm assuming there is less loss in chemical storage vs storage that requires mechanical work on both ends of the energy equation (getting useable energy in and getting useable energy out). Handy too that batteries are 'no moving parts' black boxes from a practical standpoint. Of course, batteries degrade while potential energy due to height difference never degrades.

[Doug Garson]

All of the solar and all of the wind generation is backed up by fossil fuel, primarily natural gas. Burning gas to generate electricity isn’t going away any time soon unless people want to accept regular interruptions of supply.
Not true, while some solar and wind is backed up by gas, not all, can't find the stats but some is backed up by batteries, pumped storage, hydro and other renewables. Agree burning gas to generate power isn't going away soon but it's not the only source of backup power for wind and solar.

[roger wiegand]

You can accomplish a lot with just load management-- charge less during hours when power is produced abundantly, more when you're on backup. Large users (ie commercial and industrial) will quickly tune their usage to optimize their costs. Fortunately in good wind production sites the wind is pretty much 24/7, and solar production tends to be highest during peak use hours.

[Brian Tymchak]

The long game is to use solar to generate "green" hydrogen for both fuel and stored energy. Right now, hydrogen is being generated most efficiently using nat gas. I think this might be only a few years away from coming to market as many oil/gas/tech companies are pushing the research.

[David Bassett]

The long game is to use solar to generate "green" hydrogen for both fuel and stored energy. ...

I watched (some of) the Le Mans 24 hour race this year. At one point they got onto the new regulations, which change every few years, and what was hinted at for future "class specs". There were several points about hydrogen as a power source. First they had a prototype hydrogen fuel-cell car that demo'd hot laps (with very respectable times!) and was described as "already obsolete". They have announced they plan to add a hydrogen fuel class in 2-3 years. They are also considering / implementing a race series where you ship in a bunch of containers and use only the local roads and water to stage a race. They plan to do this with solar panels to generate hydrogen fuel on site. Lastly, they talked about several manufacturers with prototype hydrogen cars. One of the "color guys" had driven one in England. His description made it sound like it was on the sporty side for a sedan and he said they refueled (at a station on the M40, where ever that is,) and it worked just like petrol.

[Doug Garson]

solar production tends to be highest during peak use hours.
That is dependent on location. In hot areas, which are probably the best locations for solar production, yes peak demand (for AC) coincides with peak production, but in cold areas peak demand for heating is at night. Totally agree load management combined with some method of storage is critical to transitioning away from fossil fuels.

[Tom M King]

Solar is really growing around here. One friend has leased 12-1/2 thousand acres to a solar company, and another friend is close to signing for a 600 acre parcel. That 600 acre piece adjoins another 600 acre parcel, that belongs to someone else. They say that 1200 acres of solar panels will supply "at least half of the lake", which covers a lot of homes.

[Doug Garson]

I was reading an article this morning about quantum computing. Apparently one of the problems with a next gen battery (sulfur lithium... know nothing about batteries) that is being worked is figuring out how to configure the molecules. This problem seems to need quantum computing to figure out the solution.. traditional computing is too slow even with super computers.

Interesting how much tech is interlaced with other tech.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/quantum-computers-are-coming-get-ready-for-them-to-change-everything/
Interesting article, amazing that the in store logistics of a single grocery store requires a quantum computer.

[Steve Demuth]

Interesting article, amazing that the in store logistics of a single grocery store requires a quantum computer.

The D-Wave / Save-On-Foods thing is a bit of a stunt. D-Wave and its founder Geordie Rose have bet big on a limited form of quantum computing based on quantum annealing - an analog to simulated annealing algorithms used in classical optimization problems. It's an interesting approach, but you can't program general algorithms with it. It happens, however to to be a fruitful approach to optimization problems - finding the parameters that yield the best result to a highly multidimensional problem.

So optimization for logistics is a perfect problem for Rose. And who has more complicated logistics than a food store, right? The thing is, the sense in which Rose's computers' optimization is better than what could have been accomplished with classical optimization is probably of minimal actual business impact.

But it makes for a catchy demonstration.

Meanwhile, the Google and IBM teams are solving the real problem of quantum error correction for a general purpose (gate-programmed) quantum computer. The reason they are talking about a million qubit computer is not because we have problems that need a million qubits, but because it takes a thousand cubits to manage the quantum error correction for a handful of actual qubits. So with a million qubit machine, you can do thousand qubit, generalized quantum algorithms.

Which ought to intimidate people a bit, because with a 1000 qubits, it's probably possible to break most of the encryption techniques that we use to make the internet reasonably secure. I really don't relish them solving this problem.

On the other hand, the same computer will be brilliant for useful science, like protein folding, searching huge configuration spaces, molecular design, etc.

Really cool stuff. I regret that I'm too old to do creative physics like this. I was once good at it, but those days are long gone, and now I have to get my kicks reading about others doing it, and solving far more mundane computational challenges myself.

[andrew whicker]

so there goes digital currency?

[Steve Demuth]

so there goes digital currency?

As we know them today, yes. Everything interesting about bitcoin is based on creative use of digital encryption techniques. Even the proof-of-work that drives the bitcoin farms is probably susceptible to being "cracked" by quantum search algorithms.

Code making / code breaking is always an arms race. The mathematicians doing the code making have had the upper hand for a couple of decades. May not be that way, at least for the well-off governments who can afford the high end quantum hardware, in the future.

[Doug Garson]

The D-Wave / Save-On-Foods thing is a bit of a stunt. D-Wave and its founder Geordie Rose have bet big on a limited form of quantum computing based on quantum annealing - an analog to simulated annealing algorithms used in classical optimization problems. It's an interesting approach, but you can't program general algorithms with it. It happens, however to to be a fruitful approach to optimization problems - finding the parameters that yield the best result to a highly multidimensional problem.

So optimization for logistics is a perfect problem for Rose. And who has more complicated logistics than a food store, right? The thing is, the sense in which Rose's computers' optimization is better than what could have been accomplished with classical optimization is probably of minimal actual business impact.

But it makes for a catchy demonstration.

Meanwhile, the Google and IBM teams are solving the real problem of quantum error correction for a general purpose (gate-programmed) quantum computer. The reason they are talking about a million qubit computer is not because we have problems that need a million qubits, but because it takes a thousand cubits to manage the quantum error correction for a handful of actual qubits. So with a million qubit machine, you can do thousand qubit, generalized quantum algorithms.

Which ought to intimidate people a bit, because with a 1000 qubits, it's probably possible to break most of the encryption techniques that we use to make the internet reasonably secure. I really don't relish them solving this problem.

On the other hand, the same computer will be brilliant for useful science, like protein folding, searching huge configuration spaces, molecular design, etc.

Really cool stuff. I regret that I'm too old to do creative physics like this. I was once good at it, but those days are long gone, and now I have to get my kicks reading about others doing it, and solving far more mundane computational challenges myself.
I could pretend to understand this but I'd probably end up looking dumber than I am. Not sure I could do it even in my prime, so now I get my kicks making sawdust and firewood with the occasional finished project. :p

[Bill Dufour]

Local grocery chain has paired with a company to use little robot self driving coolers to delver groceries within 1-2 miles of the store. Send in order, they load the cooler and it drives on the sidewalk to your house and unlocks. Not sure if it can deliver to more then one house before returning to the loading dock to be refilled. Interesting to see them wait at corners to cross street. I have seen them pull out then dart back when a car comes.
Bill D.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuPAdNe1L1w

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

the prime problem with current alternative energy systems is every body thinks of wind and solar, but mostly as sources to create electricity. Electricity can be easily transported but requires special expensive storage systems. It is also highly inefficient to convert electricity into heat. Solar and wind also suffer the draw back of calm weather and night time. Ideas for use of tides, rising and falling to create electricity have been tried, but are disrupted by storm surges and other weather related problems. There are things the flow in seemingly unstoppable 24-7-365 reliability. Tesla wanted to use other energy that bombards the earth rain or shine or dead of night. People are still working on neutrino energy. (cosmic rays) Even 50 years ago, using the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic to turn a giant submerged turbine was proposed. It never stops, always moves along. There are magnetic waves that flow across the earth's surface all the time, and people have worked on harnessing that power. An auto mechanic in Ontario realized that when someone presses on the brakes in the car, the break lines suddenly heat up from the friction of the brake fluid flowing through the lines. He invented a windmill, that turned a system of beaters inside a drum of brake fluid, and the heat generated heated his hot water and helped heat his house. His system converted the mechanical energy directly into heat. skipping the wind turbine mechanical energy being converted to electricity and then electricity being converted by the water heater elements into heat to heat his hot water. It takes thinking out side the normal wind solar box that most of us think in.

[eugene thomas]

seems like as we go green we will be buying the windmills and such from countrys that building more coal plants. maybe the government should give trees to plant. i have 20 achers that have room but trees preaty exspensive.

[Doug Garson]

seems like as we go green we will be buying the windmills and such from countrys that building more coal plants. maybe the government should give trees to plant. i have 20 achers that have room but trees preaty exspensive.
Which country are you referring to? Most of the wind turbines installed in the US are made in the US. https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/top-10-things-you-didnt-know-about-wind-power

[Bernie Kopfer]

Just a few years ago the ideas and overall concepts of “green” energy were being dismissed as ridiculous, unattainable, unpatriotic and worse. Look where we are today! I am personally elated and hopeful that we will continue to move in this direction. Perhaps with the new leadership in this country we will use our vast intellectual and technological abilities to move towards a truly sustainable energy future that would benefit everyone on our one small planet.

[Doug Garson]

the prime problem with current alternative energy systems is every body thinks of wind and solar, but mostly as sources to create electricity. Electricity can be easily transported but requires special expensive storage systems. It is also highly inefficient to convert electricity into heat. Solar and wind also suffer the draw back of calm weather and night time. Ideas for use of tides, rising and falling to create electricity have been tried, but are disrupted by storm surges and other weather related problems. There are things the flow in seemingly unstoppable 24-7-365 reliability. Tesla wanted to use other energy that bombards the earth rain or shine or dead of night. People are still working on neutrino energy. (cosmic rays) Even 50 years ago, using the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic to turn a giant submerged turbine was proposed. It never stops, always moves along. There are magnetic waves that flow across the earth's surface all the time, and people have worked on harnessing that power. An auto mechanic in Ontario realized that when someone presses on the brakes in the car, the break lines suddenly heat up from the friction of the brake fluid flowing through the lines. He invented a windmill, that turned a system of beaters inside a drum of brake fluid, and the heat generated heated his hot water and helped heat his house. His system converted the mechanical energy directly into heat. skipping the wind turbine mechanical energy being converted to electricity and then electricity being converted by the water heater elements into heat to heat his hot water. It takes thinking out side the normal wind solar box that most of us think in.
Modern electric Hot water heaters are 90 to 95% efficient, only more efficient way to heat water is electric heat pump, gas Hot water heaters are only 60 to 70% efficient. Like to see an article on the Ontario mechanic story, brake lines don't heat up because of friction (there is no flow in a brake line) they heat up from compression.

[Fred Perreault]

We all got here from where we came thousands of years ago without oil, gasoline, and natural gas as we know it. But early man used the wind, abundant sunshine and flowing water to help get us here. They even lived in caves, taking advantage of the earth's warmth. If we are going to continue to populate earth we just may have to change our way of thinking and interacting with one another, and Mother Earth. Chang is difficult, but history shows that man has managed change quite well.

[Keith Outten]

We built one of the countries largest pumped storage facilities in Virginia back in the 70's in Bath County. Four concrete tubes 50 foot in diameter with a thousand foot drop from the upper to the lower lake. It was a monster job but it has paid off big time though the years because we have four nuclear reactors generating electricity here. It takes more energy to pump the water from the lower to the upper lake than we generate from the facility but we use excess nuclear power at night, nuclear plants can't be throttled back like coal or gas plants.

I don't see any way that pumped storage facilities will be viable in the future as nuclear powered electrical production becomes ancient history. Hydrogen is the fuel of the future, there isn't any other way IMO.

[Mike Henderson]

We built one of the countries largest pumped storage facilities in Virginia back in the 70's in Bath County. Four concrete tubes 50 foot in diameter with a thousand foot drop from the upper to the lower lake. It was a monster job but it has paid off big time though the years because we have four nuclear reactors generating electricity here. It takes more energy to pump the water from the lower to the upper lake than we generate from the facility but we use excess nuclear power at night, nuclear plants can't be throttled back like coal or gas plants.

I don't see any way that pumped storage facilities will be viable in the future as nuclear powered electrical production becomes ancient history. Hydrogen is the fuel of the future, there isn't any other way IMO.

Solar and wind, but especially solar, have times when they're overgenerating. During that time, (mid-day) water could be pumped to a storage facility and then used for generating at night.

Mike

[Doug Garson]

We built one of the countries largest pumped storage facilities in Virginia back in the 70's in Bath County. Four concrete tubes 50 foot in diameter with a thousand foot drop from the upper to the lower lake. It was a monster job but it has paid off big time though the years because we have four nuclear reactors generating electricity here. It takes more energy to pump the water from the lower to the upper lake than we generate from the facility but we use excess nuclear power at night, nuclear plants can't be throttled back like coal or gas plants.

I don't see any way that pumped storage facilities will be viable in the future as nuclear powered electrical production becomes ancient history. Hydrogen is the fuel of the future, there isn't any other way IMO.

Pumped storage can be also be used to store energy from solar collected during the day for use at night or to store energy from wind to use when the wind isn't blowing or to store excess energy from constant sources like geothermal to use during peak demand. Hydrogen isn't really a fuel, more of an energy storage medium like a battery. You make hydrogen from water or natural gas using electricity then consume the hydrogen in a combustion engine or fuel cell to produce electricity or useful work. There are smart people (including Elon Musk)on both sides arguing whether hydrogen is truly the "fuel" of the future. Not sure nuclear is going away, there are some smart people (including Bill Gates) investing in developing the next generation of nuclear power which overcomes the concerns with current nuclear technology.
Very interesting times for development of new power generation technologies.

[Jim Matthews]

It takes thinking out side the normal wind solar box that most of us think in.

It does take a grasp of classical physics. This can be difficult when you have any relevant research to follow, or working prototypes to examine.

"It is also highly inefficient to convert electricity into heat." - yikes

[Steve Demuth]

"It is also highly inefficient to convert electricity into heat." - yikes

Yeah, exactly. It's pretty close to 100% efficient, converting electricity into heat - and easy to do exactly where you want it.

I suspect what Perry really meant is that it is inefficient to convert chemical energy into heat by first converting it into electricity and then converting that to heat. There's a case there: even the most efficient thermal electrical plant (a combined cycle gas turbine facility, e.g.) is in the vicinity of 60-65% efficient at converting heat to electricity, whereas the heat capture of the same natural gas burned in a high efficiency furnace to heat your home would be over 90%.

[Jim Becker]

I don't see any way that pumped storage facilities will be viable in the future as nuclear powered electrical production becomes ancient history. Hydrogen is the fuel of the future, there isn't any other way IMO.

I agree that hydrogen will play a much larger role in the future. Relative to nuclear, I agree that fission nuclear is waning for many reasons (all of them good) but should there be the hopeful breakthroughs with fusion nuclear, I suspect that may be a major game-changer, including, perhaps, the ability to "miniaturize" someday. Science just has to find "that thing" that makes fusion generation possible.

[Stan Calow]

I think nuclear is not viable, mostly because of economics, not technical or environmental reasons. Power companies can't raise regulated rates in advance to finance the gigantic capital costs of building a plant over the many years of time it takes to build. And the returns don't come fast enough to get investors interested.

All the cost-effective hydro projects in the lower 48 states have already been identified and built, which is something I heard in college 40+ years ago.

There's still room for reducing growth in demand through conservation. Look at how quickly LED became the norm in lighting, replacing CFL, replacing incandescent. At a recent conference, I heard water resource managers point out that 25% of all power generated in California is used to pump water.

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

sorry yes, I wasn't very clear . I was referring to typical electric heat from 30 yrs ago. as well as the energy conversion to make the electricity.

My old farmhouse used a pre-heater for the well water before it reached the water heater. the water line to the water heater went through a heat exchanger in an out door boiler. When the water boiler was fired up, the water was often at 120 before it reached the water heater and the water heater rarely used electricity. In warm months the little boiler shed, dark green was still sitting out in the sun. The well water was still pre-warmed to about 75 to 85 degrees before reaching the water heater. My neighbor accomplishes the similar thing in warm weather by running the water through some coiled hoses that sit on a southern facing back porch roof. H has an attic that is finished, from the standpoint that it is paneled and floored. He has a thermostat and vent system that turns on a fan and takes the warm air out of the attic when the temperature exceeds 75 degrees. If the house below if under 70 degrees the warm air is pushed down into the house. If the house is above 70 degrees, the air is pushed out side. It warms his house during warmer days and helps cool his house on hot days.

[Doug Garson]

sorry yes, I wasn't very clear . I was referring to typical electric heat from 30 yrs ago.
Can't help but think if more of us had this discussion 30 years ago we'd be much better off today.

[Ole Anderson]

Which country are you referring to? Most of the wind turbines installed in the US are made in the US. https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/top-10-things-you-didnt-know-about-wind-power Eye opening statistics there on wind power. Over 100,000 employed in the wind industry and the capacity to provide electricity to nearly 30 million homes at the end of last year. Average diameter of new rotors is now up to 379 feet with blade lengths of 190 feet, yikes. From other sources, the average capacity factor (actual yearly production vs theoretical production with turbine at 100% of capacity for 8760 hours per year) is between 25 and 45% dependent on location. At the end of 2016, the wind generating capacity (theoretical) exceeded that of hydro in the US. That was surprising to me. Here in Michigan we have had the 1,875 megawatt Ludington pumped storage facility on the shore of Lake Michigan for 47 years. Total US pumped storage is 22,900 megawatts. The power sector consumed 30% less coal in the first half of 2020 vs 2019, a big step in the right direction (eia.gov data).

[Jim Becker]

Ole, I have a friend who helps assemble the business end of the windmills about 300' up in the air. She's a millwright (yesterday was the last day of her four year apprenticeship) and has been doing these assignments for over a year now. Photos have been spectacular as you can likely imagine. At any rate, I suspect folks like my friend Brandi are not even in that count of people employed in the wind industry, meaning job creation by clean energy isn't limited to just folks involved in the day to day operations. That's a very positive thing.