California to ban internal combustion engine cars by 2035

[Bill Dufour]

Our Governor just signed a bill to outlaw the sale of new internal combustion engined cars and trucks? by 2035. unclear if it includes trucks or not. It does include gas and diesel. I assume propane and CNG as well. I wonder how forest fire trucks will last on battery power for days in the field away from power lines much less chargers. I beleive rolls royce and Tslea cars weigh so much that they are considered trucks by the IRS for busniess tax deduction purposes.
I keep waiting for GE to announce electric powered airplane engines.
Bil lD.

[Doug Garson]

I keep waiting for GE to announce electric powered airplane engines.
Bil lD.
Actually magniX already has.
https://www.harbourair.com/harbour-air-and-magnix-announce-successful-flight-of-worlds-first-commercial-electric-airplane/
https://www.magnix.aero/

[Mike Henderson]

Our Governor just signed a bill to outlaw the sale of new internal combustion engined cars and trucks? by 2035. unclear if it includes trucks or not. It does include gas and diesel. I assume propane and CNG as well. I wonder how forest fire trucks will last on battery power for days in the field away from power lines much less chargers. I believe rolls royce and Telsa cars weigh so much that they are considered trucks by the IRS for business tax deduction purposes.
I keep waiting for GE to announce electric powered airplane engines.
Bil lD.

If I recall, the order only applies to cars and light trucks. There's no intent to restrict larger trucks to electric power, or to restrict special vehicles, such as forest fire trucks. It also only applies to new vehicles and does not restrict the sale of older petroleum powered vehicles (used vehicles). I assume that if other states don't do the same restrictions, you will still be able to purchase a petroleum powered vehicle in those states. If someone moves to California and owns one of those vehicles, I assume they will be able to bring the vehicle into California. However, if you live in California you won't be able to purchase a petroleum powered vehicle in another state and bring it into California.

The order is fairly reasonable as far as what it covers. And it doesn't go into effect until 2035. And it's just an executive order, not a law passed by the legislature. So a future governor can cancel or modify the order. The legislature could even pass a law that overturns it.

As Harry Truman said, "When you see 10 troubles coming towards you, don't panic. Nine of them will run off the road before they get to you."

Mike

[Overall, I think it's a great idea and one that is really needed.]

[Jim Becker]

I'm not sure why this is a surprise....the EU has already moved in that direction and given the time frame, it shouldn't be a major issue technology wise. I'm sure there will be provisions for specialty vehicles that might not be best served by EV, too.

There is already meaningful work in progress relative to passenger planes that are EV or use alternative power methods, too. Airbus is one of the companies doing work on this kind of thing.

[David Bassett]

Sort of related, I watched some of the Le Mans coverage and one thing that caught my attention is the announcement of new car classes. There is an interim spec, which will reduce cost of the top prototypes (from obscene, to merely ridiculous :) ) and allow greater compatibility between sanctioning bodies. More interesting was the promise of a class of hydrogen cars and supporting efforts. They had a hydrogen prototype that ran respectable hot laps, but was described as already obsolete as design was progressing so quickly. They also mentioned a demo series that would be self contained. It sounded like the infrastructure was already in development, but press release.... The plan is to have container based solar powered hydrogen stations to fuel the hydrogen cars and to stage (demo?) races in places with only roads & water.

Coming back to the California situation, they said there are already pilot programs for this hydrogen technology in progress here. (And in UK, Europe, & parts of Asia.) One of the announcers had driven a Hyundai prototype in the UK. He said it drove well, just like a battery electric, but you just popped into the filling station where a fill was quick, very like gasoline. So with a 15 year deadline, several potential technologies, and pressing environmental concerns, this doesn't really seem an unreasonable goal.

[glenn bradley]

I think we all feel we should have been off fossil fuels for convenience vehicles years ago. I probably shouldn't be behind the wheel by 2035 so, more power to 'em :D

[Brian Tymchak]

Sort of related, I watched some of the Le Mans coverage and one thing that caught my attention is the announcement of new car classes. There is an interim spec, which will reduce cost of the top prototypes (from obscene, to merely ridiculous :) ) and allow greater compatibility between sanctioning bodies. More interesting was the promise of a class of hydrogen cars and supporting efforts. They had a hydrogen prototype that ran respectable hot laps, but was described as already obsolete as design was progressing so quickly. They also mentioned a demo series that would be self contained. It sounded like the infrastructure was already in development, but press release.... The plan is to have container based solar powered hydrogen stations to fuel the hydrogen cars and to stage (demo?) races in places with only roads & water.


I was thinking a few months ago that if there was an electric car racing series, innovation of ev tech would sky rocket.

[David Bassett]

I was thinking a few months ago that if there was an electric car racing series, innovation of ev tech would sky rocket.

F1 & LMP1's are hybrids on steroids right now. There's Formula-E (I think it's called, but I haven't tried to follow it), an all electric series that runs right now. Announcers have said things about it catching on and siphoning drivers from the F1 talent pool, so it's got some prestige and funding. Problem is range & power are pretty limited by current battery technology. A battery break through, or alternative (e.g. hydrogen fuel-cells), is need before its a practical for many uses.

What I haven't seen / heard about is US manufacturers participating in the racing series, which as you say drive (a lot of) the innovation. More technology we seem to be conceding to the rest of the world. :(

[Malcolm Schweizer]

In 15 years you won’t be able to afford fossil fuels anyway.

[Mike Henderson]

In 15 years you won’t be able to afford fossil fuels anyway.

Unless they put a big tax on petroleum products, I expect petroleum products will be cheap. The reason is that there's very large reserves of oil. As we convert to green energy, sales of petroleum products will decrease (at least for transportation). Supply and demand says that petroleum products will cost less if demand goes down.

That's one of my concerns. One advantage of an electric vehicle is the lower cost of "fuel". As more people purchase electric vehicles, the price of gas could go down, prompting more people to choose a gas vehicle instead of an electric vehicle.

If that's true, the executive order in California makes even more sense.

Mike

[An alternative is to treat gasoline like cigarettes - put a big tax on it and keep increasing the tax to encourage people to go electric.]

[Erik Loza]

It's the inverse here in TX. Due to crony-ism, Teslas cannot be sold inside the state (vehicles must be sold through a dealership, not directly) but Tesla just inked a deal to put a 1.1 billion dollar factory here in Austin. I don't know how the sales model will work but Teslas have been everywhere here in town for some time. Folks seem to want to make the jump.

Erik

[Doug Garson]

The biggest pushback I hear on electric vehicles is probably the same argument that was used when gasoline powered cars replaced horse and buggy. How can I drive long distances there aren't enough charging stations (gas stations back then). With each generation of electric cars having longer ranges and more and more charging stations being built (including home charging stations), I don't see that being a problem for California in 15 years.

[Steve Eure]

Is this also going to affect air traffic? Jet planes burn an awful amount of fuel.

[Stan Calow]

The biggest pushback I hear on electric vehicles is probably the same argument that was used when gasoline powered cars replaced horse and buggy. How can I drive long distances there aren't enough charging stations (gas stations back then). . .

Doug, yes that's what I hear. I think the answer to that is to think outside the limits of our expectations. Maybe we dont need to drive 50 miles away to go shopping. I figure 95% of my driving is less than 50 miles at a time. For that once a year trip driving further on vacation or to another city, I can rent a long-distance car. Heck I know people who do that now anyway to save wear on the family gas-powered vehicle. Electrics are ideal for commuting around the city. Rural life is a different story.

[David Bassett]

Is this also going to affect air traffic? Jet planes burn an awful amount of fuel.

That's being worked on, e.g:

The largest electric plane yet completed its first flight — but it's the batteries that matter (https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/largest-electric-plane-yet-completed-its-first-flight-it-s-n1221401)

Also hydrogen:

Airbus announces concept designs for zero-emission, hydrogen-powered airplanes (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/airbus-announces-concept-designs-for-hydrogen-powered-airplanes-.html)

though those are combustion, instead of fuel-cell (with electric motors.)

That's just two examples from the first several pages of search results. (What I didn't notice was any mention of Boeing, so again major US company appears lagging in the search for green tech.)

[Mike Henderson]

Is this also going to affect air traffic? Jet planes burn an awful amount of fuel.

Well, the executive order will not affect airplanes. California does not have authority to make rules for aircraft. This is just for cars and light trucks.

Mike

[Bruce Wrenn]

Currently, semi's over a certain age aren't allowed to enter the state of California due to emissions standards. Seems like the same applies to diesel locomotives also.

[Ronald Blue]

Currently, semi's over a certain age aren't allowed to enter the state of California due to emissions standards. Seems like the same applies to diesel locomotives also.

Actually unless it has changed the rules for locomotives require they meet an "opacity" standard. Basically the locomotive isn't supposed to smoke or it is very faint under load. I've been away from that for a while (20 years) so I might be way off base now. But we had a test stack that was above the exhaust and it measured the clarity. It had to be certified to meet the standard at that time. To my knowledge locomotives aren't yet using DEF fluid or DPF filters. If someone has knowledge otherwise I stand corrected.

[Mike Soaper]

I know some folks near DC who had a electric Honda Fit that they really liked, and now a Nissan Leaf.
Wintertime can be a battery challenge when driving with the lights on, heater on, defrost on, wipers on.

[Jamie Buxton]

California already has rules in place to cover electrification of big trucks -- y'know, the 18-wheeler variety. By 2045, all of the new big trucks sold must be zero-emission -- electric or maybe hydrogen. Between now and then, there are increasing percentages of new trucks which must be zero-emission.

[Curt Harms]

I'm not sure why this is a surprise....the EU has already moved in that direction and given the time frame, it shouldn't be a major issue technology wise. I'm sure there will be provisions for specialty vehicles that might not be best served by EV, too.

There is already meaningful work in progress relative to passenger planes that are EV or use alternative power methods, too. Airbus is one of the companies doing work on this kind of thing.

From what I've read though Airbus is thinking Hydrogen not electric/batteries. I think we'll see electric light training aircraft in the near future if they're not in service already, I know there are demonstrators flying. 90 minutes run time may be adequate in that role.

[Bill Dufour]

Frito lay in town is using 10-15 Tesla semitrucks to haul potato chips around the area. UPS is electric delivery trucks in town, has been for several years. I bet there will be arguments about what is a light truck vs a heavy one.
Or they could do like New Zealand and charge a license fee based on miles driven. They will have to figure something out for road taxes to replace fuel taxes. By 2050 gas stations may be hard to find and cost more simply because of the rarity value.
Driving an electric car across Death Valley with no charging stations could literally be the death of you. People already die when the get off the road and run out of gas in summer. I read tesla batteries have a low temperature high limit. Like not over 120 F or some such. I know it is less then the air temperature in some parts of California. Of course that may have improved.
Bil lD.

I have actually seen -20f on a map, smart enough not to go there at the time, in california. tesla says not to let the car sit at -22F for more then 24 hours?
Only info I could find for high was LiON about 150 F is maximum. It would be easy for the inside of a car to get that hot in the sun when it is 120 outside. Death valley max temp is 130F.

[Doug Garson]

From what I've read though Airbus is thinking Hydrogen not electric/batteries. I think we'll see electric light training aircraft in the near future if they're not in service already, I know there are demonstrators flying. 90 minutes run time may be adequate in that role.
Check out the link to Harbour Air I posted, they are North America's largest all float plane airline and I think second largest worldwide. Most of their flights are under 2 hours and their plan (pre covid at least) was to go 100% electric by 2023. So yes, first commercial use of electric planes will be short range.

[Mike Henderson]

Or they could do like New Zealand and charge a license fee based on miles driven. They will have to figure something out for road taxes to replace fuel taxes. By 2050 gas stations may be hard to find and cost more simply because of the rarity value.

Bill D.

I participated in a study here in California about taxing based on miles driven instead of a gas tax. The roads still have to be paid for and as gas sales decline something has to take their place.

For the study, I received a small unit that plugged into the OBD connector. It monitored the number of miles I drove and reported it to the study organization. I don't know what they figured out from the study, however.

Mike

[Bruce Wrenn]

California already has rules in place to cover electrification of big trucks -- y'know, the 18-wheeler variety. By 2045, all of the new big trucks sold must be zero-emission -- electric or maybe hydrogen. Between now and then, there are increasing percentages of new trucks which must be zero-emission.

No electric vehicle is zero emissions. The batteries on these trucks will be charged by coal burning plants in Utah, same as much of California's electricity is produced today. These coal burning plants AREN'T in CALIFORNIA though.

[Mike Henderson]

No electric vehicle is zero emissions. The batteries on these trucks will be charged by coal burning plants in Utah, same as much of California's electricity is produced today. These coal burning plants AREN'T in CALIFORNIA though.

The idea of electric vehicles is not the only thing California is doing to to combat climate change. California is also moving to a 100% renewable electric grid. I forget what percent of California's electric power is renewable today but it's fairly high. Eventually, it will be 100% assuming there's some reasonable storage devices available.

But in any case, it's much easier to address pollution - even carbon dioxide emissions - at a point source, such as a power generation station, instead of millions of petroleum fueled automobiles.

Mike

[Bruce Wrenn]

Yeah, and it's even easier to address it when it's not in your state.

[David Bassett]

Yeah, and it's even easier to address it when it's not in your state.

Not at all true.

It doesn't help us and our climate related problems to move pollution, we need to reduce it. Emissions in other states or other countries will still contribute to the heat and drought which are, in too many cases, literally killing us. You need to realize that even if many steps are needed to get a significant improvement, taking the first steps are necessary for that progress to begin, even if those first steps don't immediately show much improvement on their own.

Another example is requiring new home construction to be all electric. Retrofitting old sites is prohibitive* and cleaner power generation is limited by our ability to use it in preference to less clean options. It's a chicken & egg problem, but forcing the balance to shift over time allows a relatively painless improvement, though it might be too little too late at this point.

(*I'm waiting on an electrician to check my service & negotiate upgrades, I'm on hold while they deal with all the newly homeless folk just up the hill from me. But my contractor thinks PG&E will require me pay to trench the street, pay for new neighborhood power conduit, and to pull a new cable to my house to get the upgrade I'd like. Unless it can happen, no electric car, more efficient heat pump heating, or any significant power tools for me here. My slim hope is without that upgrade PG&E can't add and harvest power from solar panels on our roof either.)

[Mike Soaper]

I don't have them (edit delete: "but since you already have solar panels"), but you might want to checkout Tesla's Powerwall
13.5kvh solar batteries. They are pricy, but with tax credits and rebates they might make sense


https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/is-the-tesla-powerwall-the-best-solar-battery-available#incentives

[Charlie Velasquez]

I don't have them (edit delete: "but since you already have solar panels"), but you might want to checkout Tesla's Powerwall
13.5kvh solar batteries. They are pricy, but with tax credits and rebates they might make sense


https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/is-the-tesla-powerwall-the-best-solar-battery-available#incentives

Before retiring as our school district’s energy manager, we were looking at those powerwalls. Because of the way our poco handles solar it didn’t make a lot of sense to go solar panels. But because of how the poco calculated and billed our “demand charge” it would only take a few years to recoup the cost of several powerwalls at our high school. We could charge them at night when few other things were running and use them from 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM when our air conditioning and kitchen was in high gear.

I left before any decision was made and the idea just sort of drifted away, but my numbers showed it was fiscally advantageous.

[Mike Henderson]

I'm on a "time of day" billing rate for electricity. California has lots of solar so rates are low during the day but go up significantly at about 4pm when solar starts to taper off. I have solar and feed power back to the grid during the low rate time of day. I considered getting some of those batteries and charging them at the low rates and then feeding the power back to the grid after 4pm where I'd get the maximum credit for the power.

Haven't done it yet but it might be worth it. I think the power company would appreciate it because they need the power at that time.

Mike

[Thomas McCurnin]

I was in China last year for nearly a month. Most, and I do mean most, of the passenger cars and scooters are electric.

There are also electric trucks, but larger trucks are of course diesel.

Why can't we do this?

[Bill Dufour]

I do not understand why post office trucks are not electric when almost all the bigger UPS trucks are. The UPS station is more then twice the distance from our neighborhood.
I Will say it again my father remembered when milk was delivered by horse and wagon. The driver took enough for several houses and the onboard intelligence would position the wagon forward as the milkman walked. No artificial intelligence at that time but they had a control system that worked better then the current dumb mail trucks.
No external power source needed , carbon neutral, self replicating AI units. Also produces valuable soil addiments as a side line
Bill D

[Mike Henderson]

I Also produces valuable soil amendments as a side line
Bill D

Those "valuable soil amendments" were all over the road and in places where people walked. People also rode horses and those horses also produced "valuable soil amendments" on the roads and walkways. You learned to walk looking down, instead of looking outward.

Looking a bit further back, people in cities used to throw "night soil" out of their windows on the roadway. Occasionally, there was someone walking under the window when it was thrown.

No, thanks. I grew up on a farm in the country amid these "valuable soil amendments". You get used to it but living without it is better.

Mike

[I'm always amazed at the city people who want to "get back to nature" and go live on a farm. I often think they just have no idea what it's really like.]

[Jim Becker]

I do not understand why post office trucks are not electric when almost all the bigger UPS trucks are. The UPS station is more then twice the distance from our neighborhood.

One word: Money

UPS has the ability to invest to reinvent their fleet. USPS doesn't currently have the funding for that because of the crippling requirement to pre-fund retirement out a long way. If that was handled like other entities, they would have money to invest to improve delivery efficiency from a transportation standpoint.

[Brian Elfert]

I do not understand why post office trucks are not electric when almost all the bigger UPS trucks are. The UPS station is more then twice the distance from our neighborhood.


The current USPS vehicles were introduced around 1990. The USPS is currently working to replace the entire fleet and electric is one option. The contract was originally supposed to be signed in 2017, but no idea what current status is.

Electric would be perfect for curbside delivery as the vehicles are constantly starting and stopping. For walking routes electric makes less sense since the carrier parks the vehicle and then walks up to each house.

[Brian Elfert]

Currently, semi's over a certain age aren't allowed to enter the state of California due to emissions standards. Seems like the same applies to diesel locomotives also.

Semi trucks have to have a 2010 or newer diesel engine to operate in California. I have heard there are/were yards on the California border where Semi tractors were exchanged for a vehicle that could travel into California.

It has now been ten years and I expect a majority of semi tractors are now 2010 or newer so they can go into California. Semi tractors in over the road service rack up miles in a hurry.

[Roger Feeley]

I keep waiting for GE to announce electric powered airplane engines.
Bil lD.

Argonne Labs demonstrated a fuel cell powered plane over 20 years ago. It was a little one (Piper Cub or something). I don't remember the range.

[Roger Feeley]

Frito lay in town is using 10-15 Tesla semitrucks to haul potato chips around the area. UPS is electric delivery trucks in town, has been for several years. I bet there will be arguments about what is a light truck vs a heavy one.


There's a company based in Kansas City called Smith Electric. They buy the panel trucks without engines and put electrics in them. Their target, which I think is brilliant, is delivery vehicles. Think about it. The Lays potato chip truck drives the same few routes over and over which aren't all that long and then they go back to the yard. Those trucks are ideal for conversion. A fuel cell company called Plug Power had the same sort of idea. Instead of going after the car market, they targeted fork lifts and other material handlers.

Both these companies are a great way to start a larger conversion.

[Mike Henderson]

Here's (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-23/universal-hydrogen-wants-to-get-fuel-cell-planes-ready-to-fly-by-2024)an article about hydrogen powered airplanes. It's on Bloomberg and I don't know if you need a subscription to see it.

I think I saw pretty much the same article somewhere else so if you can't see it here you may be able to find it.

Mike

[Searching further I found a bunch of articles on hydrogen powered aircraft.]

[mike stenson]

Why can't we do this?

The answer is invariably "We don't want to."

We can.

With that said, I've seen more high-end gasoline powered sports cars in Shanghai than any other city I've been to. Bar none. Man, there's some money in that city.

[Bill Dufour]

The nazi's, before the war started, experimented with steam engine airplanes. I know Bill Lear made a steam engine bus in the 1970's?
Bil lD

[Nicholas Lawrence]

There's a company based in Kansas City called Smith Electric. They buy the panel trucks without engines and put electrics in them. Their target, which I think is brilliant, is delivery vehicles. Think about it. The Lays potato chip truck drives the same few routes over and over which aren't all that long and then they go back to the yard. Those trucks are ideal for conversion. A fuel cell company called Plug Power had the same sort of idea. Instead of going after the car market, they targeted fork lifts and other material handlers.

Both these companies are a great way to start a larger conversion.

Plug Power has been around for decades, and is one of the reasons I am skeptical of the idea that futuristic technology will allow us to have a carbon free future without compromising anyone's quality of life.

Anybody who was around Albany in the late 90s knew about Plug Power. They had a demonstration house that ran on fuel cells, the governor was talking them up, the stock was skyrocketing, incredible breakthroughs were just around the corner, and everybody seemed to know somebody who worked there or was invested in it.

Twenty years later I don't think they have ever made a profit, and the incredible breakthroughs are still just around the corner.

[Jim Matthews]

Twenty years later I don't think they have ever made a profit, and the incredible breakthroughs are still just around the corner.

Too right.

Time to stop propping up sectors that can't turn a profit.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-usa-restructuring-focus-idUSKCN2250FQ

[Keith Outten]

California might be better off finding a way to provide reliable electricity before it decides to mandate electric vehicles :)
Its not something you can do overnight, it takes decades to properly plan and build a reliable electrical service for that many people.

[Jim Matthews]

California might be better off finding a way to provide reliable electricity before it decides to mandate electric vehicles :)
Its not something you can do overnight, it takes decades to properly plan and build a reliable electrical service for that many people.

That's already happened, on a small scale.

"The Northern California utility “needs to do the things San Diego has done in the last 12 years since the Witch fire,” Wara said.

With federal and state funding, SDG&E started building a microgrid in 2012 in the desert community of Borrego Springs, several years after a wildfire took down the town’s single transmission line and cut off power for two days.

The system today uses a complex array of diesel generators, a solar farm, rooftop solar on many homes and lithium-ion batteries to allow the community to be “islanded” during systemwide outages. That means the microgrid can provide all the power the town of 3,500 needs for several hours at a time."

It's a rebirth of municipal utilities



https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-microgrids-wildfires-power-shutoffs-20190314-story.html

[Bill Dufour]

30 years ago there were often newspaper articles about families from southeast Asia who used a habachi grill and charcoal to heat the home at night. They would wake up in the morning and everyone would be dead.
Bil lD

[Mike Henderson]

30 years ago there were often newspaper articles about families from southeast Asia who used a habachi grill and charcoal to heat the home at night. They would wake up in the morning and everyone would be dead.
Bil lD

That's quite a trick:)

Mike

[I feel that way some mornings.]

[Mike Soaper]

so that's how zombies are created?:)

[Alex Zeller]

California is entering a world of hurt. The plan is that during the day solar is going to provide the power and during the evening all those electric cars that are plugged in will provide power to the grid. That's their way of getting around the power grid and it's problems. Of course this will only work if you can charge your car during the day (most people work so companies will have to install charging stations) and plug it in. Would you plug your car into the grid if it didn't need charging if you knew that your 85% charge could be 25% in the morning? If I lived in the state I would be getting a good sized battery. Done right there's nothing wrong with advancements in technology. But done in an action like a dictator, where the science and figuring out how to make it happen is a second thought, it'll cause plenty of pain. This order also impacts things like off road vehicles like dirt bikes.

I wonder what the people living up in the mountains think of this? They are usually an afterthought (if thought about at all). A battery powered snow blower may be fine when you get 4" or so of snow but where it's measured in feet and how wet it is things are different. That applies to a pickup with a plow on it. It's nothing to go through a tank of gas plowing customers during a storm. Having to stop for hours to charge up the battery isn't always an option. Around here we can get more than 2' of snow and plow guys will start early and continue to plow to stay ahead of it.

OTOH those who commute to work and spend most of their drive in stop and go traffic would be a great place for an EV. Done right a transition away from fossil fuels is viable. Newsom didn't even address the problems with hydrogen. Right now it comes from natural gas. A move to splitting fresh water is not viable in California since they are already struggling with power and lack of water. Salt water could be used but it's still in the research phase. it could be 5 years or maybe 50 years before it's viable (if ever). Is hydrogen from NG going to be exempt? It produces lots of green house gasses.

[Keith Outten]

Alex, your kidding right?

Surely they are not planning to use people's electric cars to put power on the grid at night. Don't most people want to charge their vehicles at night.
This is so funny its almost believable that a state on the shaky side would try it :)

[Jim Matthews]

California is entering a world of hurt. The plan is that during the day solar is going to provide the power and during the evening all those electric cars that are plugged in will provide power to the grid.

Do you have a source describing this plan?

[Lee DeRaud]

Well, at least California can rely on the near-infinite supply of people on the east coast telling us what we're doing wrong.

[Brian Elfert]

With federal and state funding, SDG&E started building a microgrid in 2012 in the desert community of Borrego Springs, several years after a wildfire took down the town’s single transmission line and cut off power for two days.

The system today uses a complex array of diesel generators, a solar farm, rooftop solar on many homes and lithium-ion batteries to allow the community to be “islanded” during systemwide outages. That means the microgrid can provide all the power the town of 3,500 needs for several hours at a time."

It's a rebirth of municipal utilities


It would get very expensive if every city had to spend ten million or more on a microgrid that is only used if the main grid is down. The article doesn't state what the cost was other than to say they got a $5 million grant for expansion so my guess is over $10 million has been spent to date.

Municipal utilities are generally connected to the main grid if they have access to the main grid. A lot of municipal utilities don't even generate any electricity and buy it all from the grid. There are villages in Alaska with no roads that have diesel generators supplying power to the village. The cost per KWh has to be sky high as diesel is easily $5 per gallon since it has to come in via barge.

[Alex Zeller]

Back in 2016 (I think) the air force base in LA switched to all EVs and started the concept of using the battery in the EV to send power to the grid. So the technology is there. Then EV companies jumped on it to promote sales. Just think. If the power goes out you can use the battery in your car to power your house. Sounds great until you think about it. What's to stop your charging station from doing the same thing and sending the power back into the grid? Look up V2G technology. The next step will be the government not giving you an option about whether or not you want to sell your power back to the grid.

Until this year I would of said it's very unlikely but between the virus and Newsom's order I would expect it'll happen. I'm not usually this type of person but all the pieces are in place. Tesla cars get over the air updates so it's not hard to have a system that tells the government how much charge your car has. It's coming for highway taxes. As gas sales drop road repair money will need to come from somewhere. Either it'll be a flat tax or it'll be the government tracking your mileage (which most states do when you get your car's yearly inspection). The next step is for your car to just upload the mileage and GPS location (including where you drove). That could mean warnings for people who do not plug your car into the grid and eventually fines. The part of me resists this because it makes me feel less free. But a part of me sees it as the future.

[Roger Feeley]

Plug Power has been around for decades, and is one of the reasons I am skeptical of the idea that futuristic technology will allow us to have a carbon free future without compromising anyone's quality of life.

Anybody who was around Albany in the late 90s knew about Plug Power. They had a demonstration house that ran on fuel cells, the governor was talking them up, the stock was skyrocketing, incredible breakthroughs were just around the corner, and everybody seemed to know somebody who worked there or was invested in it.

Twenty years later I don't think they have ever made a profit, and the incredible breakthroughs are still just around the corner.

Nicholas, It's my understanding that they got themselves a new CEO and the guy cracked the nut. Instead of trying to sell to consumers (homes and cars), they realized that they could start with forklifts. They have no shortage of customers but now they need hydrogen and hydrogen doesn't transport all that well. You need to make it close to the point of use.

[Mike Henderson]

Back in 2016 (I think) the air force base in LA switched to all EVs and started the concept of using the battery in the EV to send power to the grid. So the technology is there. Then EV companies jumped on it to promote sales. Just think. If the power goes out you can use the battery in your car to power your house. Sounds great until you think about it. What's to stop your charging station from doing the same thing and sending the power back into the grid? Look up V2G technology. The next step will be the government not giving you an option about whether or not you want to sell your power back to the grid.

Until this year I would of said it's very unlikely but between the virus and Newsom's order I would expect it'll happen. I'm not usually this type of person but all the pieces are in place. Tesla cars get over the air updates so it's not hard to have a system that tells the government how much charge your car has. It's coming for highway taxes. As gas sales drop road repair money will need to come from somewhere. Either it'll be a flat tax or it'll be the government tracking your mileage (which most states do when you get your car's yearly inspection). The next step is for your car to just upload the mileage and GPS location (including where you drove). That could mean warnings for people who do not plug your car into the grid and eventually fines. The part of me resists this because it makes me feel less free. But a part of me sees it as the future.

The idea of using the battery in your car to power your house during a power failure is a good idea - if you want to do that. You may need your car for transportation so you might decide not to do that.

There's also a way to make a bit of money by charging your car during the day when rates are low and then using your car to put power back on the grid at higher rates. But again, it would be up to you whether you want to do that.

There has to be money for building and repairing roads and bridges so owners of electric vehicles will have to pay their share. That could be based on the number of miles driven, or there might be other ways of doing it. But EV drivers will have to pay their share.

I'm not sure why these ideas seem to bother you.

Mike

[Nicholas Lawrence]

The idea of using the battery in your car to power your house during a power failure is a good idea - if you want to do that. You may need your car for transportation so you might decide not to do that.

There's also a way to make a bit of money by charging your car during the day when rates are low and then using your car to put power back on the grid at higher rates. But again, it would be up to you whether you want to do that.

There has to be money for building and repairing roads and bridges so owners of electric vehicles will have to pay their share. That could be based on the number of miles driven, or there might be other ways of doing it. But EV drivers will have to pay their share.

I'm not sure why these ideas seem to bother you.

Mike

I could be wrong, but I have the impression you are looking at discharging the battery to the grid as a voluntary thing to make money on the side, and he is looking at it as something the government someday perhaps just does whether you consent or not.

Roger, regarding Plug Power, just be careful if you are investing. I started following them in the late 90s because so many blue collar guys who worked there were very excited about the technology and investing heavily themselves. The stock back then was in the $70s.

Unless I am misreading the data, over 20 years they have never reported a profit. They did report a quarterly profit once, in 2014.

[Mike Henderson]

I could be wrong, but I have the impression you are looking at discharging the battery to the grid as a voluntary thing to make money on the side, and he is looking at it as something the government someday perhaps just does whether you consent or not. .

There's no way the government could force you to do such a thing. They don't have the right to do such a thing and you could always unplug your car. People have to have a working vehicle. Do you really think you could be forced to drain your battery dry and immobilize your car? Do you think people would stand for that?

That's conspiracy thinking.

Mike

[Jim Matthews]

Well, at least California can rely on the near-infinite supply of people on the east coast telling us what we're doing wrong.

I heard you heretics put Salsa on hotdogs.

[Doug Garson]

It's one thing to insist on *your* rights in isolation. That primacy ends in public spaces.

Note the attempted Strawman posed by MF. You're dealing with post-rational adults.

You guys start building your wall, yet?
We're looking into building a row of wind turbines facing south powered by hydro to blow all the contaminated air back across the border. We considered a giant N95 mask stretching from coast to coast but decided it was impractical. :D

[Lee DeRaud]

I heard you heretics put Salsa on hotdogs.It's not a bug, it's a feature.

[Mike Soaper]

We're looking into building a row of wind turbines facing south powered by hydro to blow all the contaminated air back across the border. We considered a giant N95 mask stretching from coast to coast but decided it was impractical. :D

A few years ago the comedian Lewis Black suggested building a wall on the Canadian border to keep the extreme winter cold out of New York. Given "global warming/climate change" I've wondered if Canada is considering a wall to keep the cool air from escaping.:)

[Art Mann]

The problem I have with electric cars is not range. More charging stations are showing up every day. The problem I have is refueling time. A fill up takes an hour or more even using the Tesla "Super charger" stations. Off brand charging stations charge at the rate of 5 or 10 miles of range per hour of charge. Building more charge stations won't fix that problem. I am waiting for another technological breakthrough to solve the slow charge problem.

On another subject, what do you suppose the price of electricity is going to do when the overwhelming majority of drivers depend on it? My prediction is that it will cost the same per mile as gasoline does today. Unfortunately, that dramatic increase in price will also apply to electricity for your home. Electricity prices in California are already 3 times what they are where I live.


The biggest pushback I hear on electric vehicles is probably the same argument that was used when gasoline powered cars replaced horse and buggy. How can I drive long distances there aren't enough charging stations (gas stations back then). With each generation of electric cars having longer ranges and more and more charging stations being built (including home charging stations), I don't see that being a problem for California in 15 years.

[Bill Dufour]

Tesla has some megawatt? super duper chargers for the semitrucks but I think a car battery would explode at those rates.
Bil lD

1.6 megawatt / 13 times the power of a super charger. Probably be increased in newer models

[Lee DeRaud]

Tesla has some megawatt? super duper chargers for the semitrucks but I think a car battery would explode at those rates.
Bil lD

1.6 megawatt / 13 times the power of a super charger. Probably be increased in newer modelsNot sure what that translates to in recharge time for a battery the size a semi requires, but I would have thought that swapping in precharged battery packs was still easier/faster. It's an aggressively time-is-money industry, and will get more so as autonomous trucks remove the need for driver food/sleep breaks.

I'm also wondering if those multi-acre truck-stops in the middle of nowhere have access to the megawattage required to "refuel" 10-20 trucks at a time the way they do now.

[Doug Garson]

The problem I have with electric cars is not range. More charging stations are showing up every day. The problem I have is refueling time. A fill up takes an hour or more even using the Tesla "Super charger" stations. Off brand charging stations charge at the rate of 5 or 10 miles of range per hour of charge. Building more charge stations won't fix that problem. I am waiting for another technological breakthrough to solve the slow charge problem.

On another subject, what do you suppose the price of electricity is going to do when the overwhelming majority of drivers depend on it? My prediction is that it will cost the same per mile as gasoline does today. Unfortunately, that dramatic increase in price will also apply to electricity for your home. Electricity prices in California are already 3 times what they are where I live.

Excellent points, no doubt the charging time may turn out to be a greater challenge than the range. Methinks there are some pretty good engineering minds out there working on that issue, only time will tell what they will come up with in the next 10 years or so. Think back 10 years and what cell phone battery performance was then vs now.

A quick google search suggests the causes of high electricity rates in California have more to do with corporate profits than the cost of production. According to this source, wind and solar are the cheapest sources of power so as we transition away from fossil fuels the cost of electricity could go down. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Wind-Solar-Are-Now-The-Cheapest-Sources-Of-Power-
Generation.html#:~:text=Wind%2C%20Solar%20Are%20No w%20The,Of%20Power%20Generation%20%7C%20OilPrice.c om (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Wind-Solar-Are-Now-The-Cheapest-Sources-Of-Power-Generation.html#:~:text=Wind%2C%20Solar%20Are%20No w%20The,Of%20Power%20Generation%20%7C%20OilPrice.c om)
And according to this source the lifetime cost to operate and maintain an electric vehicle is less than a ice vehicle.
https://www.corporateknights.com/channels/clean-technology/faceoff-electric-vs-gas-cars-on-cost-15555966/#:~:text=Based%20on%20data%20from%20Pollution,on%2 0data%20from%20Canada%20Drives.&text=Repair%20and%20insurance%20costs%20are%20abou t%20equal.
Add to that, it is unlikely ice vehicles will get much more efficient than they are today while battery powered cars are getting exponentially better every year. From this same article "The cost of batteries – the main reason for EVs’ higher price – keeps falling. When the first Leaf hit the streets, it was about $1,000 per kilowatt-hour of capacity. It’s now around $200, and further drops will change the cost equation."

[Jim Matthews]

Excellent points, no doubt the charging time may turn out to be a greater challenge than the range.

If your daily commute is less than the capacity of the battery, charging time isn't really a concern.

Most of us Americans travel 16 miles each way to work.
The speed at which we travel (even on major highways) is often well below posted limits during peak rush hours. This implies idling in stop and go traffic.

The two overlooked, superior characteristics of EVs in this application are power consumption at idle (near zero) and cleaner air on the route.

There's some speculative talk about passenger vehicles with near 600 mile range on a single charge within this decade. The truth is that few of us drive that far on a regular basis.

EVs today are built to handle what people really do with their cars - mostly within 100 miles of their homes.


https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27288/goodbye-range-anxiety-startup-claims-big-ev-battery-breakthrough-with-600-miles-of-range

My current lease has a claimed 239 mile range that I've bested in our first three weeks - 310 miles of mixed highway and local road driving before the "charge needed" alert chimed.

This is a second generation EV, at $250 a month that gets this range TODAY.

I can't imagine what it will buy in 2030.

[Bill Dufour]

I think the semi truck full fill up is 30 minutes for 400 mile range. So a 30 minute meal break seems okay after 400 miles to me. Of course a truck load of potato chips is about as light a load as I can think of. As they say your millage may vary.
Bil lD

[Brian Elfert]

This is a second generation EV, at $250 a month that gets this range TODAY.


I'm curious what EV you have that leases for $250 a month? Does Massachusetts have state incentives for EVs? You live in a CARB state and thus have more EVs available to you.

I almost leased a Hyundai Ioniq electric when Hyundai was leasing them for $99 per month. The Ioniq electric was only sold in CARB states so I would have had to buy it in New York and drive it back to Minnesota. I eventually decided the hassle to get it home and the high cost of yearly registration wasn't worth it. The 130 mile range meant something like ten stops to recharge. I had mapped out all the places I would have needed to stop for a charge.

[Rod Sheridan]

A few years ago the comedian Lewis Black suggested building a wall on the Canadian border to keep the extreme winter cold out of New York. Given "global warming/climate change" I've wondered if Canada is considering a wall to keep the cool air from escaping.:)

Yes, and the country to the south will pay for it:D

Regards, Rod.

[Mike Henderson]

If your daily commute is less than the capacity of the battery, charging time isn't really a concern.

Most of us Americans travel 16 miles each way to work.
The speed at which we travel (even on major highways) is often well below posted limits during peak rush hours. This implies idling in stop and go traffic.

The two overlooked, superior characteristics of EVs in this application are power consumption at idle (near zero) and cleaner air on the route.

There's some speculative talk about passenger vehicles with near 600 mile range on a single charge within this decade. The truth is that few of us drive that far on a regular basis.

EVs today are built to handle what people really do with their cars - mostly within 100 miles of their homes.


https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27288/goodbye-range-anxiety-startup-claims-big-ev-battery-breakthrough-with-600-miles-of-range

My current lease has a claimed 239 mile range that I've bested in our first three weeks - 310 miles of mixed highway and local road driving before the "charge needed" alert chimed.

This is a second generation EV, at $250 a month that gets this range TODAY.

I can't imagine what it will buy in 2030.

One additional thing is the regenerative charging when you slow down. Now that I'm aware of EVs and how they work, I think of the energy wasted whenever I see an ICE car come to a stop at a stop sign or light. That "braking" could be returning energy to the battery.

Mike

[Jim Matthews]

I'm curious what EV you have that leases for $250 a month?

It's a left over 2019 Niro EV from Georgia.
Huge KIA incentives drove down cost cap.

I did not qualify for the Mass "MOREV" program because the lease is too short.
The Federal rebate was rolled into the lease cash incentive.

2020 models have nearly $10,000 lease bonus cash until 26NOV2020. That works out to $279/month.

https://www.carsdirect.com/2020/kia/niro-ev#lease-specials

No way it's worth retail - that's as pricey as the Tesla 3.

[Jim Matthews]

One additional thing is the regenerative charging when you slow down. Now that I'm aware of EVs and how they work, I think of the energy wasted whenever I see an ICE car come to a stop at a stop sign or light. That "braking" could be returning energy to the battery.

Mike

I'm still baffled by this - my first plug in hybrid only applied regen from the brake pedal. This 'un has some sort of logic built in to apply regen when another car is close, and has multiple tiers.

It's capable of "one pedal" driving.

The wildest thing is to watch the projected range grow larger while I'm driving. That's down to elevation drop to the office, on local roads.

If this was your first car, you wouldn't notice these quirks.

Considering I just retired a 1996 SAAB manual, it still feels odd.

[Mike Henderson]

I'm still baffled by this - my first plug in hybrid only applied regen from the brake pedal. This 'un has some sort of logic built in to apply regen when another car is close, and has multiple tiers.

It's capable of "one pedal" driving.

The wildest thing is to watch the projected range grow larger while I'm driving. That's down to elevation drop to the office, on local roads.

If this was your first car, you wouldn't notice these quirks.

Considering I just retired a 1996 SAAB manual, it still feels odd.

My friend, who owns a Tesla Model 3, tells me that it's all in the accelerator. That is, when you let up on the accelerator, the car starts to regen (brake). So you have to learn how to feather the accelerator. I asked him how long it took him to learn to drive that way and he said it was no problem. He learned quickly. I suppose it's like when you had to learn how to drive a stick shift. Just took some practice and then it became second nature.

For a quicker stop you use the brake. That means that the brakes on the Tesla last a long time because they're not used as heavily as an ICE car.

Mike

[Bill Dufour]

I do not know if the brakes really last that much longer. I thought a Tesla was double the weight of many normal size cars since the battery weighs about one ton and the rest of the car is beefed up to handle the extra weight.
Bil lD

[Stan Calow]

My nephew has a Tesla 3. Curb weight is around 3500 lbs. Just 500 more than my Toyota Camry.

[Mike Henderson]

I do not know if they really last much longer. I though a Tesla was double the weight of many normal size cars since the battery weighs about one ton and the rest of the car is beefed up to handle the extra weight.
Bil lD

The major difference is that an electric vehicle is much simpler than an ICE car, with many less moving parts. Tesla says that there are only 20 moving parts on a Tesla (but I don't know what they count). I don't know if it's accurate but I've heard that there are 10,000 moving parts in an ICE car. One problem the traditional automobile manufacturers have is that a big source of revenue for their dealers is service and the electric vehicles require a lot less service than an ICE car. This causes the traditional automobile dealers to want to avoid the sale of electric vehicles.

Mike

[Lee DeRaud]

I though a Tesla was double the weight of many normal size cars since the battery weighs about one ton and the rest of the car is beefed up to handle the extra weight.Depends on what you call "normal size". The heaviest (largest battery) Tesla S is about the same weight (4900lbs) as a gas-engine Lexus LS...the Lexus LS hybrid is actually 200lbs more than the Tesla. The Lexus is slightly larger but not by that much, I used it as an example because I know at least two people who made that exact switch.

The Model 3 is heavier than the similarly-sized Lexus IS, but only by 15% or so.

(Disclaimer: At my age, all current cars sound stupidly heavy. As an example, the current Shelby GT500 Mustang is over 4200lbs...I once owned two cars at the same time that didn't total that.)

[Lee DeRaud]

I though a Tesla was double the weight of many normal size cars since the battery weighs about one ton...Um, no. The original 85kwh battery is "only" about 1200lb. I think they're up to a 100kwh pack at this point, but the weight difference should be roughly linear, so roughly 1400lb.

Per my previous post, note that 1400lb is about the same weight as a '60s-vintage Mini.

[Jim Matthews]

The original 85kwh battery is "only" about 1200lb. I think they're up to a 100kwh pack at this point, but the weight difference should be roughly linear, so roughly 1400lb.


They shaved off a few pounds, in the latest go 'round.

The stressed skin design just announced will remove some of the body frame elements, too.

This is the quickest way to more efficiency, without major battery chemistry improvements.

https://insideevs.com/news/338107/what-makes-the-tesla-model-3-battery-pack-so-light/

[Jim Matthews]

Just did some back of a napkin math.

At local gas prices (1.80/gallon) averaging 25 mpg that's $7.20 per 100 miles.
(MPG chosen for simplicity.)

My electric supply costs $.2273 per kwh.
The battery holds 64 kw ~ $15 to fully charge.

Nominal max range is 240 miles.

$15/240 = $.06/mile $6.25 per 100 miles. Good, but not great. A Honda fit would be cheaper to operate on regular gas. It would be far less expensive to buy (or lease) than a new EV.

Today, at the ideal temperature for battery efficiency $15/310 = $.05/mile $4.70 per 100 miles.
That's just over half what my theoretical gas consumption would be.

I doubt things will be this cheap below freezing.

[Brian Elfert]

My friend, who owns a Tesla Model 3, tells me that it's all in the accelerator. That is, when you let up on the accelerator, the car starts to regen (brake). So you have to learn how to feather the accelerator. I asked him how long it took him to learn to drive that way and he said it was no problem. He learned quickly. I suppose it's like when you had to learn how to drive a stick shift. Just took some practice and then it became second nature.


The Jake brake in my motorhome works this way. If the Jake brake is turned on it automatically engages as soo as you let off the pedal.

[Brian Elfert]

I would be likely to consider an electric car if they had an electric mini-van, and it was reasonably affordable. Chrysler has a plug-in hybrid Pacifica, but not real affordable at $40,000. (I paid $20,000 new for my 2016 Dodge Caravan.)

[Bill Yacey]

Being an external combustion engine, a coal fired steam engine is acceptable?

California will eventually look like the streets of Havana, with 50 year old oil burners being the norm.:D

[Jim Matthews]

Hybrids offer long range, but are more complicated than either traditional gasoline motors or purely electric vehicles. In total cost of ownership, the premium paid for an EV is more than offset by lower maintenance and "fuel" costs.


https://www.thedrive.com/news/34494/how-a-tesla-model-3-patrol-car-is-saving-this-police-department-thousands-of-dollars

[Doug Garson]

I would be likely to consider an electric car if they had an electric mini-van, and it was reasonably affordable. Chrysler has a plug-in hybrid Pacifica, but not real affordable at $40,000. (I paid $20,000 new for my 2016 Dodge Caravan.)
Have you considered total cost of ownership over five years or just initial purchase cost? Check out these two links to Edmunds analysis, it's closer than you might think.
https://www.edmunds.com/chrysler/pacifica-hybrid/2019/cost-to-own/
https://www.edmunds.com/dodge/grand-caravan/2019/cost-to-own/

[Bill Dufour]

Ford Escape plug in hybred. I think it is 20 -40 mile range on battery
Bil lD

[Doug Garson]

Ford Escape plug in hybred. I think it is 20 -40 mile range on battery
Bil lD
Yes, Car and Driver reports it is 37 miles and the MPGe (miles per gallon gasoline equivalent) is rated at 100, sounds pretty efficient.

[Brian Elfert]

Have you considered total cost of ownership over five years or just initial purchase cost? Check out these two links to Edmunds analysis, it's closer than you might think.
https://www.edmunds.com/chrysler/pacifica-hybrid/2019/cost-to-own/
https://www.edmunds.com/dodge/grand-caravan/2019/cost-to-own/

I don't really understand their chart. It appears they are using a $30,000 cost to buy a Grand Caravan SE when I paid about $22,000 with taxes and fees. I would have to save at least $200 a month by owing the Pacifica plug-in for me to break even. I averaged about $105 a month on gasoline over the past 12 months. I could probably make at least half of my trips on electricity only, but that doesn't save me more than $50 a month.

[Jim Matthews]

I would have to save at least $200 a month by owing the Pacifica plug-in for me to break even. I averaged about $105 a month on gasoline over the past 12 months. I could probably make at least half of my trips on electricity only...

Hybrids and pure EVs are answering a question nobody really asks when gasoline is so cheap.

FWIW - if you're keen turn use less gas, a secondhand PRIUS appears to be a durable choice.
They're bigger inside than they look, are surprisingly zippy (at the expense of fuel economy ) and routinely survive 200,000 miles of use on the original drive train - batteries included.

Larger vehicles are slowly coming available, as shown by Amazon's first in class large EV delivery vans. I would *not recommend * the Chrysler hybrid power train, which is largely derived from FIAT research.

Nissan, with all its problems, has a decade of real world experience in their LEAF EV.
The e-NV200 is derived from the LEAF platform and has real potential in the local delivery segment. I waited until after the first model year was over before selecting my new ride.

https://www.nissan.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/e-nv200.html

[Doug Garson]

I don't really understand their chart. It appears they are using a $30,000 cost to buy a Grand Caravan SE when I paid about $22,000 with taxes and fees. I would have to save at least $200 a month by owing the Pacifica plug-in for me to break even. I averaged about $105 a month on gasoline over the past 12 months. I could probably make at least half of my trips on electricity only, but that doesn't save me more than $50 a month.
Could it be because they are basing it on a 2019 model vs your 2016 model? Or maybe you just got a better deal. It doesn't appear possible to run their calculator for older model years. It appears the difference in the "True cost to own" between the two vehicles fluctuates each year which I don't understand, I would have expected it to trend towards zero if the more expensive vehicle had lower operating costs.

[Lee DeRaud]

It appears the difference in the "True cost to own" between the two vehicles fluctuates each year which I don't understand, I would have expected it to trend towards zero if the more expensive vehicle had lower operating costs.Note that "true cost to own" includes (or certainly should include) depreciation. The difference will clearly vary as different make/model cars go through out-of-synch upgrade/redesign cycles, and in any case is working from old data.

[Doug Dawson]

One nice thing about EV’s is that they increase the size of your garage, because you wouldn’t ever want to park them in there. This is good for the woodworker!

have you ever seen how difficult it is to deal with them when they go on fire?

[Doug Garson]

One nice thing about EV’s is that they increase the size of your garage, because you wouldn’t ever want to park them in there. This is good for the woodworker!

have you ever seen how difficult it is to deal with them when they go on fire?
BMWS INCLUDING MINI COOPERS ARE CATCHING FIRE WHEN PARKED, AND NO ONE KNOWS WHY

Seems like BMWs and Minis do too! Full disclosure my wife has a Mini so this story caught my eye. https://drivetribe.com/p/bmws-including-mini-coopers-are-RRYC8mQgSMm3Ja6TdIvxYg?iid=EyPdrAA_SDeHyXoVGe0w1g

[Bob Turkovich]

I would *not recommend * the Chrysler hybrid power train, which is largely derived from FIAT research.

Nissan, with all its problems, has a decade of real world experience in their LEAF EV.
The e-NV200 is derived from the LEAF platform and has real potential in the local delivery segment. I waited until after the first model year was over before selecting my new ride.

https://www.nissan.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/e-nv200.html

Please explain where you determined that the Chrysler Pacifica power train was "largely derived" from FIAT research (before I bother associates that I worked with in my pre-retirement days in Powertrain to confirm/deny). They certainly could share expertise but it wouldn't be a "drop-in".

The Pacifica Hybrid was introduced for the 2017MY so it has four years of real world experience (not quite 10 but more than one...).

The two vehicles are not quite going after the same market. The Pacifica seats 7 vs. 5 for the Nissan and has 25% more cargo capacity. It does cost significantly more than the Leaf.

[Doug Dawson]

Please explain where you determined that the Chrysler Pacifica power train was "largely derived" from FIAT research (before I bother associates that I worked with in my pre-retirement days in Powertrain to confirm/deny). They certainly could share expertise but it wouldn't be a "drop-in".

The Pacifica Hybrid was introduced for the 2017MY so it has four years of real world experience (not quite 10 but more than one...).

I’m not familiar with the current tech tree, but they do go on fire:

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32827376/chrysler-pacifica-hybrid-fire-risk-recall/

So they’re not _completely_ unrelated to Fiats.

[Jim Matthews]

"Magnetti Marelli has made several announcements to the Italian press about supplying electronics and possibly motors for the SI-EVT transmission."

https://www.allpar.com/mopar/transmissions/hybrid-automatic.html

I have no doubt you have more experience in this field; I have none. That said, FIAT is not known for reliable products.

The Nissan van is not currently available in the US, but does have a mature parts bin behind it if it arrives on out shores.

To be clear, I drove a plug in hybrid three trouble free years - but prefer the relative simplicity of a purely electric drivetrain.

Toyota disproves my reluctance to recommend the layout - but I'm old enough to remember breaker point distributors and front drum brakes.

[Jim Matthews]

One nice thing about EV’s is that they increase the size of your garage, because you wouldn’t ever want to park them in there.

I have parked and charged my car in the garage the past three years. Most EV driver's do the same. That's sort of the point.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/charging-home#:~:text=Because%20residential%20charging%20is %20convenient,of%20their%20charging%20at%20home.

Perhaps you have a table that shows how many times this has happened?

How many traditional gas powered cars burned in their garages in the same period?

Do you actually *know* something, or is it just a gut feeling?

Do tell....

[Doug Dawson]

I have parked and charged my car in the garage the past three years. Most EV driver's do the same. That's sort of the point.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/charging-home#:~:text=Because%20residential%20charging%20is %20convenient,of%20their%20charging%20at%20home.

Perhaps you have a table that shows how many times this has happened?

How many traditional gas powered cars burned in their garages in the same period?

Do you actually *know* something, or is it just a gut feeling?

Do tell....

Okay!

I already quoted you (?) the article about the Fiat/Chrysler product. There have been well-publicized news reports of Teslas bursting into flames while parked.

There have also been news reports (and recalls) about (say) Ford products bursting into flames while parked in people's garages, burning their houses down. It's not that uncommon. The difference with EV's is the intense difficulty of putting out the fire after it has started. There have been cases where the fire has been put out, only to have it spontaneously restart hours later (say, in the wrecking yard.) These things are crazy and insidious.

Good luck with all that.

It's a good argument for having your charger set up on the _outside_ of your garage.

[Jim Matthews]

There have been well-publicized news reports of Teslas bursting into flames while parked.


Really? Certainly you can produce lots of these, if they're common.



There have also been news reports (and recalls) about (say) Ford products bursting into flames while parked in people's garages, burning their houses down. It's not that uncommon.





The difference with EV's is the intense difficulty of putting out the fire after it has started. There have been cases where the fire has been put out, only to have it spontaneously restart hours later (say, in the wrecking yard.) These things are crazy and insidious.

Being insidious, verifiable accounts should be easy to find.
You have those to support this claim?



It's a good argument for having your charger set up on the _outside_ of your garage.

Hardly. Inside your garage, out of the elements where it's warm and dry is the ideal place to "refuel", unlike gas stations.

http://jwkblog.com/wordpress/fire-at-gas-stations-some-facts-some-statistics-and-some-prevention-tips/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20National%20Fire,in %20property%20damage%20every%20year.

[Brian Elfert]

Could it be because they are basing it on a 2019 model vs your 2016 model? Or maybe you just got a better deal. It doesn't appear possible to run their calculator for older model years. It appears the difference in the "True cost to own" between the two vehicles fluctuates each year which I don't understand, I would have expected it to trend towards zero if the more expensive vehicle had lower operating costs.

I considered getting a 2019 model right before COVID hit and I could get the same SE model for within $1,000 of what I paid for a 2016. I ultimately decided I would rather keep mine until there might be better alternatives in four or five years. They also got rid of the stow and go seating for the second row in the SE model which I use all the time.

[Bill Dufour]

The Tesla that caught on fire was not really tesla's fault. They gave the owner a new one as a free repalcement. Tehy took it back a month later when they determined the real cause of the fire. The drive took a handgun and shot down into the main battery next to the drivers seat. I think it was only one shot before the battery caught fire and could not be put out. What would happen with an ICE car if you fired one round into the gas tank while driving?
Bill D.

https://bgr.com/2018/12/17/tesla-fire-battery-pack-lawsuit/

[Doug Dawson]

The Tesla that caught on fire was not really tesla's fault.

“The” Tesla?

https://www.thedrive.com/news/28420/parked-teslas-keep-catching-on-fire-randomly-and-theres-no-recall-in-sight

Musk has a habit of defending his company, of course. ;^)

[Doug Dawson]

That article refers to vehicle fires on the road, not parked.

And you’re ignoring the much greater difficulty of putting out a high-energy-battery-fed fire, that I pointed out earlier, and is at the heart of my concern.

There are many boosters of EV’s, for sure.

I had to stop smoking my pipe some years ago. Now let’s all play nice before this thread goes the way of the global warming thread. :-/

[Anthony Whitesell]

Interesting that no one pointed out the obvious. California, notorious for rolling black outs, is now going to mandate more stuff to be plugged into their over tax power grid.

The two issues I have with electric cars are:
1. Range. The only car that is remotely feasible for me is a Tesla. They are the only one that has the range to get me to and from some of my customer sites. The others don't have the range, and the few customers that have chargers are for employees only.
2. Cost. There is NO WAY and electric car will cost me less on ownership than my Nissan Altima (last car) or Honda Accord (current car). Both were/are 10 years old and 250k miles. Looking at cost of repairs, besides brakes and tires, the Altima got a steering rack and tie rod ends, CV axle, two belts and 8 spark plugs and 3 crank position sensors. Approximate total $585. The Honda Accord has gotten a timing rebuild due to design flaws mostly (timing chain, tension, guides, VTC actuator and solenoid) for a total cost of $800. What else for the Accord, oh yeah, nothing. Let's just call it an $1k for 250k miles. That $0.004 per mile. Think I can get 250k out of a Tesla, or any other electric car? I doubt it and I'm not willing to take the chance.

Both of those cars are standard transmision. Why? Reliability. When I shopping for the Accord, I asked at the Nissan dealer. I asked if the automatics were as reliable. "Absolutely" the salesman replied. So I challenged him. Include a $0 deductible, lifetime, nontransferrable warranty on the crate transmission and you have a sale. "We can't do that" he replied. My response "Well then I guess they aren't as reliable are they?" That ended the conversation. I purchased the standard transmission Accord. Npth cars were/are 250K miles on the original clutch and no maintenance to the transmissions.

[Doug Garson]

Interesting that no one pointed out the obvious. California, notorious for rolling black outs, is now going to mandate more stuff to be plugged into their over tax power grid.

The two issues I have with electric cars are:
1. Range. The only car that is remotely feasible for me is a Tesla. They are the only one that has the range to get me to and from some of my customer sites. The others don't have the range, and the few customers that have chargers are for employees only.
2. Cost. There is NO WAY and electric car will cost me less on ownership than my Nissan Altima (last car) or Honda Accord (current car). Both were/are 10 years old and 250k miles. Looking at cost of repairs, besides brakes and tires, the Altima got a steering rack and tie rod ends, CV axle, two belts and 8 spark plugs and 3 crank position sensors. Approximate total $585. The Honda Accord has gotten a timing rebuild due to design flaws mostly (timing chain, tension, guides, VTC actuator and solenoid) for a total cost of $800. What else for the Accord, oh yeah, nothing. Let's just call it an $1k for 250k miles. That $0.004 per mile. Think I can get 250k out of a Tesla, or any other electric car? I doubt it and I'm not willing to take the chance.

Both of those cars are standard transmision. Why? Reliability. When I shopping for the Accord, I asked at the Nissan dealer. I asked if the automatics were as reliable. "Absolutely" the salesman replied. So I challenged him. Include a $0 deductible, lifetime, nontransferrable warranty on the crate transmission and you have a sale. "We can't do that" he replied. My response "Well then I guess they aren't as reliable are they?" That ended the conversation. I purchased the standard transmission Accord. Npth cars were/are 250K miles on the original clutch and no maintenance to the transmissions.
Just curious, did you get the warranty you described on the manual transmission?

[Jim Matthews]

That article refers to vehicle fires on the road, not parked.

1 of the 8 reported fires was on a highway in California.

There are 8 fires reported in your linked article, over 4 years - WORLDWIDE.

150 CAR FIRES A DAY IN THE USA ALONE.




And you’re ignoring the much greater difficulty of putting out a high-energy-battery-fed fire, that I pointed out earlier, and is at the heart of my concern.

Which is so rare, lightning strikes are more common.

985,000 Teslas on the road, today. How many garage fires? TWO

[Brian Elfert]

I know a few people who have electric vehicles and they have no fear of storing them in their garage. I have strongly considered an electric vehicle several times and I have no fear of putting one in my garage. Yes, lithium batteries have a lot of energy in them, but gasoline also has a lot of energy in it too.

The media reports on electric car fires because they don't happen that often and it attracts viewers/readers. There are also a lot of skeptics about electric cars. Media doesn't report much on gasoline car fires because they happen so often and don't really attract readers/viewers. Most people just accept gasoline car fires as a fact of life that happens to some people.

[Bob Turkovich]

"Magnetti Marelli has made several announcements to the Italian press about supplying electronics and possibly motors for the SI-EVT transmission."

https://www.allpar.com/mopar/transmissions/hybrid-automatic.html

I have no doubt you have more experience in this field; I have none. That said, FIAT is not known for reliable products.

The Nissan van is not currently available in the US, but does have a mature parts bin behind it if it arrives on out shores.

To be clear, I drove a plug in hybrid three trouble free years - but prefer the relative simplicity of a purely electric drivetrain.

Toyota disproves my reluctance to recommend the layout - but I'm old enough to remember breaker point distributors and front drum brakes.

My contention is with your statement that the Pacifica Hybrid is "largely derived from FIAT research". Your linked article disputes that.

Per the article: "FCA worked closely with technical consulting firm Ricardo to develop the transmission...and that the design is based on previous patented units by Timken with Ricardo". Ricardo is a UK-based company with significant resources located in the US, particularly in Auburn Hills, MI which is also home to FCA-Chrysler world headquarters including Engineering. Timken is located in Canton, OH.

Per the article, the transmission is assembled in Tipton, Indiana with gear and case machinery provided at a plant in Kokomo, IN. Both facilities are owned by FCA-Chrysler.

Re: "transmission electronics and motors are likely to be provided by Magneti Marelli." It is true that up until 2019, MM was owned by FCA-Fiat. MM is a major worldwide supplier of automotive components with manufacturing facilities in the US. I do not know if that is where their Pacifica parts are manufactured. In 2019, they ranked 28th in the world in auto component sales. They were then bought out by CK Holdings and merged with Calsonic Kansei (a Japanese company) that was at the time ranked 29th.

The MM parts are only a small part of the transmission assembly (albeit key parts). The transmission is just one of multiple unique systems for a hybrid.

BTW, the Pacifica Hybrid is built in Windsor, Ontario.

There may have been some initial synergy between FCA-Chrysler and FCA-Fiat early in the design process but the Pacifica Hybrid was the design, development, quality and reliability responsibility of FCA-Chrysler, not FCA-Fiat. (Yes, Doug, that applies to the battery connection fire issue as well.) Correlating Chrysler vs. Fiat performance is sketchy as they are two completely separate organizations.

IMO your statement of "largely derived from FIAT Research" is a significant exaggeration.

Re: your last comment wrt Toyota. I'm not sure what you meant but if it's what I think it is, you and I could have an interesting PM conversation about it (without hijacking this thread).

[Jim Matthews]

My contention is with your statement that the Pacifica Hybrid is "largely derived from FIAT research". Your linked article disputes that.

IMO your statement of "largely derived from FIAT Research" is a significant exaggeration.

Re: your last comment wrt Toyota. I'm not sure what you meant but if it's what I think it is, you and I could have an interesting PM conversation about it (without hijacking this thread).

It's a legitimate objection - I don't work in the field and my deepest mechanical involvement with these drivetrains is where to store the keyfob. That said, Italian electronics aren't my first choice in automobiles. There's plenty of documentation regarding QC problems since 2014.

As a consumer, I'm not alone in my skepticism of the Chrysler brand since merging with FIAT.

Perhaps the Pacifica is the bee's knees - I still wouldn't want to be first.

After all, my first hybrid was in 2018 - when the Prius has been available since 2000.

"In just the past year, recalls — not counting those for air bags, an area where scores of automakers continue to deal with fallout from defective Takata products — were announced for more than 8.3 million FCA vehicles in the United States. Those recalls covered everything from steering components to floor mats."

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2019/03/29/fiat-chrysler-quality-consumer-reports/3292743002/

[Anthony Whitesell]

Just curious, did you get the warranty you described on the manual transmission?
I never considered to ask. I have NEVER had a standard transmission fail. I have only EVER had to work, repair, or replace automatic transmissions. To give scope on my EVER, 30 years and 1.2 million miles on vehicles I own/owned.

[Jim Matthews]

To give scope on my EVER, 30 years and 1.2 million miles on vehicles I own/owned.

That's double the national average. Is this highway driving? That many gear changes on local roads would lead to frequent clutch plate, throw out bearing and left knee replacement.

[Doug Garson]

I never considered to ask. I have NEVER had a standard transmission fail. I have only EVER had to work, repair, or replace automatic transmissions. To give scope on my EVER, 30 years and 1.2 million miles on vehicles I own/owned.
Fair enough, I've never had either type of transmission fail but I only have about 1/2 that many miles over 50 years and about 7 vehicles. :o

[mike stenson]

I never considered to ask. I have NEVER had a standard transmission fail. I have only EVER had to work, repair, or replace automatic transmissions. To give scope on my EVER, 30 years and 1.2 million miles on vehicles I own/owned.

I have. They can and do fail. I've seen several blow gears in the last few years actually.

for the record, I prefer manuals. However, I do so because I prefer to drive them. They are not, however, bulletproof.

[Doug Garson]

Course if you go electric, no transmission to worry about.

[Anthony Whitesell]

I have. They can and do fail. I've seen several blow gears in the last few years actually.

for the record, I prefer manuals. However, I do so because I prefer to drive them. They are not, however, bulletproof.
Manual transmissions are far more bullet resistant than automatic transmissions.

[Anthony Whitesell]

That's double the national average. Is this highway driving? That many gear changes on local roads would lead to frequent clutch plate, throw out bearing and left knee replacement.
Closer to 3x. I couldn't imagine the hours required to rack up that many miles on two-lane roads. Yes mostly highway driving.

[Doug Garson]

Manual transmissions are far more bullet resistant than automatic transmissions.
There's your problem, stop shooting them.:confused::confused:

[Anthony Whitesell]

Course if you go electric, no transmission to worry about.
Lots of other things to worry about. Which is half of my point. The other half is the ability for me to perform the repairs myself. I'm sorry, but it does not take a certified Tesla technician to replace plastic lug nut covers (as noted by Rich Rebuilds on YouTube during a recorded call while trying to get a set of them). If I lived in Massachusetts, I would be voting Yes, no question on the Right to Repair article.

Rhetorical question. Do you think I would be able to get the same cost of ownership from and an all electric powered vehicle as I do from the standard transmission gas powered vehicle?

[Mel Fulks]

With the old Pontiac Trans Ams...it was the manual that that failed ,not the M42 (turbo 400). But ,yeah ,that was a long
time ago.

[Doug Garson]

Lots of other things to worry about. Which is half of my point. The other half is the ability for me to perform the repairs myself. I'm sorry, but it does not take a certified Tesla technician to replace plastic lug nut covers (as noted by Rich Rebuilds on YouTube during a recorded call while trying to get a set of them). If I lived in Massachusetts, I would be voting Yes, no question on the Right to Repair article.
I think you would agree you are in the minority if you are doing your own maintenance on your vehicles today. For most of us that is not an option especially with today's computerized engines. Can't recall if it was my current drive 09 Murano or it's predecessor 95 Pathfinder but I went to change the spark plugs and I couldn't even see the end of the plug much less get a wrench on it. I stick to topping up the washer fluid and changing wiper blades.
Most studies today show maintenance on EV's is less than ICE vehicles. Overall cost of ownership is better for ICE vehicles for some comparisons while EV's are better in other comparisons. In most cases the EV's are more expensive to buy but cheaper to maintain and run.
Check the link in my post 67

[Bill Dufour]

I read years ago that gasoline is the same energy pound for pound as dynamite. So every gallon is equal to eight pounds of dynamite.
Bil lD

[Jim Matthews]

. The other half is the ability for me to perform the repairs myself.

That ship sailed around the turn of this century. The last motor I could reliably service was the GM3800. That went out of production around 2008.

Bad enough you need a suite of proprietary scan tools to figure out what's the culprit - now there's no elbow room. My Audi A8 service manual started most repair guides with, "First - remove the engine."



If I lived in Massachusetts, I would be voting Yes, no question on the Right to Repair article.


No doubt TESLA agrees, but they're not behind the ballot initiative. That would be
General Motors, Toyota Motor North America, Inc, Ford Motor Company, American Honda Motor Co., Inc, and Nissan North America. There's HUGE money in forcing owners of older vehicles back into stealerships.




Rhetorical question. Do you think I would be able to get the same cost of ownership from and an all electric powered vehicle as I do from the standard transmission gas powered vehicle?

Maybe - if you still rack up these kind of miles and don't need to recharge before 250 miles.

You're racking up 100 miles a day - is that right?
What does gas cost you? What kind of mpg are the cars getting?

We've established that you're way off the bell curve of average drivers.

While the buy in cost for a pure EV is over $30,000, and recharge times are more than twenty minutes (for short haul deliveries) the ROI is still measured in years.

AAA figures most Americans travel 30 miles round-trip in our commutes. If that's in stop and go traffic, EVs break even in about 8 years which isn't a compelling case.

A hybrid might be a more affordable option, but I'm no fan of complex drivetrains.

That said, taxi companies are among the largest institutional buyers of the Prius which is at it's best around town, under 50 mph with frequent stops. Were I looking to test the platform and see what high fuel economy did for my bottom line, that would be my choice.

At $1.80 a gallon, that could still take awhile.

****


I'm leasing at about $250 per month which is the same as the gas version. At MSRP, the car is overpriced by about $15,000.

Because of EV efficiency, my "fuel" cost is just over half gas prices. Between my cost cap reduction and lower "fuel" cost per mile, I save about $2500 in two years.

Not too shabby. My max daily trip is about 50 miles, above the National average and well within the max claimed by the maker (at 240 miles).

Could I get better ROI driving a base model Honda Fit with 5 speed manual trans? No doubt.

That difference wouldn't cover the cost of a divorce lawyer, so it's a false economy.

(Linked article from 2017 - but still accurate)

https://www.wisebread.com/how-long-does-it-take-break-even-with-an-electric-car

[Doug Dawson]

Manual transmissions are far more bullet resistant than automatic transmissions.

It's easier to destroy a manual transmission than an auto, depending on how you drive it. An automatic is designed to protect the powertrain from the driver, in a sense. Its reliability also depends on who designed the thing, OTOH.

Manual transmissions do fail. Bearings wear out, synchros and gears strip, seals leak, linkages bind, wear causes stuff to slip or go out of alignment, incorrect or leaking fluids cause weird things to happen, etc. Not to mention the issues that come up with clutches and clutch wear.

[Anthony Whitesell]

It's easier to destroy a manual transmission than an auto, depending on how you drive it. An automatic is designed to protect the powertrain from the driver, in a sense. Its reliability also depends on who designed the thing, OTOH.

Manual transmissions do fail. Bearings wear out, synchros and gears strip, seals leak, linkages bind, wear causes stuff to slip or go out of alignment, incorrect or leaking fluids cause weird things to happen, etc. Not to mention the issues that come up with clutches and clutch wear.
If you are stting out to destroy or wreck a transmission, I'm sure they are about equal. If you set out to make both last as long as possible, IMO most standard transmissions will outlast and cost less over their lifetime than an automatic. I have not replaced a single standard transmission or clutch. I have had or replaced several automatic transmissions. I'm sorry. I can get 250k miles with $0 in maintenace on a standard transmission. I have yet to have an automatic transmission make it half that long.
I did not say standard transmission were bullet proof and never fail. Bearings and the like do wear, in both. But there are far fewer parts in an standard compared to an automatic. Leaking fluids and seals also apply to both (there are many more seals in an automatic than a standard). Clutches are easy to change. I have changed two, both in my parents vehicles. In both cases the 'slippage' was due to a 'well lubricated' clutch as the seal had failed. In both cases the clutch was north of 300K miles. When compared to the new replacement clutch, the old one still had 40-45% life remaining but was so oil impregnated it was ruined. In one case, the auto parts counter attendant asked if we were sure we wanted to turn it in for the core charge with so much life left to it (not noticing it was saturated in oil). So technically I have not had to work on any of the standard transmissions on my vehicles. As for automatics, I do not want to meet the bonehead engineer that decided it was a good idea to move the range sensor to INSIDE the automatic transmission on my truck. As the truck acts as a second vehicle for both my wife and I it must be an automatic as she does not yet know how to drive a standard. Why (on god's green earth) did they move a sensor, something that is sensitive and prone to failure by heat, from the steering column to INSIDE something that GENERATES heat? I don't mean ON, I mean IN. You must remove the pan and some internal parts and then reach IN to remove it.

[Brian Elfert]

A lot of trucking companies are switching over to automatic or automated transmissions. A poor driver with a manual transmission can destroy the drivetrain in a heavy truck with a manual transmission.

[Anthony Whitesell]

A lot of trucking companies are switching over to automatic or automated transmissions. A poor driver with a manual transmission can destroy the drivetrain in a heavy truck with a manual transmission.
A poor driver can ruin a standard transmission in a light weight car. Back around 2005, the automobile manufacturers were derating the capacity of standard transmission trucks when sold for passenger or personal use versus the same truck with an automatic transmission. If you went to a cab-and-frame dealer and look at the same truck for "commercial" use, the hauling and towing capacities were higher. Same truck, same engine, same transmission, different ratings. Why? The manufacturers (GM and Ford) gave themselves a way to avoid the arguement of warranty service vs poor driving habits with the clutch and/or standard transmission failed. It took me a lot of research to figure out what was going on. I don't know if that same philosophy exists today. I don't know if you can still get them with standard transmissions. Since I'm speaking of trucks used both personal and commercial, 1/2-3/4-1 ton trucks only.

[Jim Becker]

I've been driving vehicles since the mid-1970s. I've never had a single transmission problem with any of them. Only three were manuals. (two VWs and a Datsun) All of our current vehicles actually have CVTs.

For folks who prefer manual transmissions, the choices are getting slim and slimmer. Even those uber-expensive "supercars" use automatics these days. EVs...just use the skinny pedal and the electric motors do the "go" you ask for. "One gear" if you will.

[mike stenson]

I've been driving vehicles since the mid-1970s. I've never had a single transmission problem with any of them. Only three were manuals. (two VWs and a Datsun) All of our current vehicles actually have CVTs.

For folks who prefer manual transmissions, the choices are getting slim and slimmer. Even those uber-expensive "supercars" use automatics these days. EVs...just use the skinny pedal and the electric motors do the "go" you ask for. "One gear" if you will.


Double clutch transmissions are faster. That's why the supercars have them. Well, I think Porsche is letting you buy a manual in a 911 again. My wife's Nissan has a CVT. It's fine. I don't notice too much of a difference between that and the 6 speed auto in my ford.

Manuals are more fun and more engaging to drive, especially in a sports car. Then there are dog-box sequentials.. which would be my favorite track monkey transmission of all times. FWIW, I've had 3 automatic transmission vehicles. All three were trucks, and two were primarily used for towing very heavy (gooseneck trailer) loads. The current truck's an auto because well, you can't get a manual anymore.

[David Buchhauser]

However, if you live in California you won't be able to purchase a petroleum powered vehicle in another state and bring it into California.



If this only applies to the sale of new vehicles, then I see no reason why a California resident could not purchase a used petroleum powered vehicle in another state and register it in California. There will most certainly be a plethora of loop-holes.
David

[Brian Elfert]

If this only applies to the sale of new vehicles, then I see no reason why a California resident could not purchase a used petroleum powered vehicle in another state and register it in California. There will most certainly be a plethora of loop-holes.


The question is would California register it? It would make it a bit hard to move to California.

California won't allow any heavy trucks with engines older than 2010 into the state now, even from other states. This isn't as big an issue now as most long haul semi tractors have been replaced since 2010. I'm sure it cost a lot of smaller businesses a lot of money as they tend to run older equipment. This isn't a registration issue. It is illegal to drive a heavy truck with an engine older than 2010 anywhere in the state.

[Jim Matthews]

If this only applies to the sale of new vehicles, then I see no reason why a California resident could not purchase a used petroleum powered vehicle in another state and register it in California.

I believe vehicles purchased in other states must pass California emissions testing to be registered in California.

[Lee DeRaud]

The question is would California register it? It would make it a bit hard to move to California.Leaving aside the heavy truck question, anyone moving to California can bring their car with them and register it here. They just have to show that it was registered in their previous state of residence.
Here's some info on the question: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/uploads/2020/03/ffvr29-1.pdf (first question on second page)
Whether this will still be true in 15 years is anyone's guess...then again, that's true of federal emission standards as well.

[Jim Becker]

Leaving aside the heavy truck question, anyone moving to California can bring their car with them and register it here. They just have to show that it was registered in their previous state of residence.

That would make sense, especially for passenger vehicles and light trucks manufactured for a number of years given most vehicle manufacturers use the California standards across the line even for vehicles intended for sale in the rest of the country. Everything I've bought for a very long time automagically came with CA standard emissions support.

[Bill Dufour]

Currently in California a resident can bring a new car into the state only if it meets Califonia smog laws or is 49 state smog and at least 7,500 miles. A non-resident can bring in any car they own outside the state and get it registered. There are exemptions for military, divorce, cars stolen while out of state etc. As I read it the car can not come direct from out of the country.
Bil lD

[Lee DeRaud]

And again, I find it humorous that almost all of the people discussing this topic don't live in California currently and are highly unlikely to be living here in 2035.

[Jim Matthews]

We're interested in the trend, often set by Californians.

Socks with sandles just caught on, here.

[Lee DeRaud]

Socks with sandles just caught on, here.I think that started somewhere well east of here.

[Jim Matthews]

I think that started somewhere well east of here.

Coachella? See, trendsetters!

[Lee DeRaud]

Coachella? See, trendsetters!I was thinking "Milwaukee": only people I've ever seen do that are tourists.

[Brian Elfert]

And again, I find it humorous that almost all of the people discussing this topic don't live in California currently and are highly unlikely to be living here in 2035.

This will quite possibly spread to other CARB states. Minnesota is looking to become a CARB state. A lot of car pollution standards started in California and spread across the 50 states.

I don't think pollution standards for internal combustion cars are a bad thing. I also don't believe that emissions standards have really decreased MPG for gasoline engines. And, yes, I lived in California during the really bad smog days in the late 1970s. We lived a block from the elementary school that my brothers and I attended and sometimes couldn't see the school building from the edge of the school property on a bad smog day.

[Jim Matthews]

I was thinking "Milwaukee": only people I've ever seen do that are tourists.

Only if your Moms didnae catch you going out...443230

[Ben Helmich]

I think we all feel we should have been off fossil fuels for convenience vehicles years ago. I probably shouldn't be behind the wheel by 2035 so, more power to 'em :D

I don’t feel like that.

[Ben Helmich]

Unless they put a big tax on petroleum products, I expect petroleum products will be cheap. The reason is that there's very large reserves of oil. As we convert to green energy, sales of petroleum products will decrease (at least for transportation). Supply and demand says that petroleum products will cost less if demand goes down.

That's one of my concerns. One advantage of an electric vehicle is the lower cost of "fuel". As more people purchase electric vehicles, the price of gas could go down, prompting more people to choose a gas vehicle instead of an electric vehicle.

If that's true, the executive order in California makes even more sense.

Mike

[An alternative is to treat gasoline like cigarettes - put a big tax on it and keep increasing the tax to encourage people to go electric.]

Or you could just wait for electric technology to mature. When it’s a better deal financially, it will go mainstream.

[Ben Helmich]

The problem I have with electric cars is not range. More charging stations are showing up every day. The problem I have is refueling time. A fill up takes an hour or more even using the Tesla "Super charger" stations. Off brand charging stations charge at the rate of 5 or 10 miles of range per hour of charge. Building more charge stations won't fix that problem. I am waiting for another technological breakthrough to solve the slow charge problem.

On another subject, what do you suppose the price of electricity is going to do when the overwhelming majority of drivers depend on it? My prediction is that it will cost the same per mile as gasoline does today. Unfortunately, that dramatic increase in price will also apply to electricity for your home. Electricity prices in California are already 3 times what they are where I live.

I agree. I can drive my pickup truck 500 miles. After a 10 minute gas station stop, I can go another 500. Can’t do that with electric. Yet.

[Ben Helmich]

Back in 2016 (I think) the air force base in LA switched to all EVs and started the concept of using the battery in the EV to send power to the grid. So the technology is there. Then EV companies jumped on it to promote sales. Just think. If the power goes out you can use the battery in your car to power your house. Sounds great until you think about it. What's to stop your charging station from doing the same thing and sending the power back into the grid? Look up V2G technology. The next step will be the government not giving you an option about whether or not you want to sell your power back to the grid.

Until this year I would of said it's very unlikely but between the virus and Newsom's order I would expect it'll happen. I'm not usually this type of person but all the pieces are in place. Tesla cars get over the air updates so it's not hard to have a system that tells the government how much charge your car has. It's coming for highway taxes. As gas sales drop road repair money will need to come from somewhere. Either it'll be a flat tax or it'll be the government tracking your mileage (which most states do when you get your car's yearly inspection). The next step is for your car to just upload the mileage and GPS location (including where you drove). That could mean warnings for people who do not plug your car into the grid and eventually fines. The part of me resists this because it makes me feel less free. But a part of me sees it as the future.

Wouldn’t you lose efficiency charging a battery and discharging the battery to power the grid?

[Doug Garson]

I agree. I can drive my pickup truck 500 miles. After a 10 minute gas station stop, I can go another 500. Can’t do that with electric. Yet.
Yes but realistically how often do you do that? 500 miles has gotta be 7 or 8 hours of driving. Even if you do it with any regularity what % of drivers also do? To fight climate change we don't need everyone to go electric full time.

[Ben Helmich]

Back in 2016 (I think) the air force base in LA switched to all EVs and started the concept of using the battery in the EV to send power to the grid. So the technology is there. Then EV companies jumped on it to promote sales. Just think. If the power goes out you can use the battery in your car to power your house. Sounds great until you think about it. What's to stop your charging station from doing the same thing and sending the power back into the grid? Look up V2G technology. The next step will be the government not giving you an option about whether or not you want to sell your power back to the grid.

Until this year I would of said it's very unlikely but between the virus and Newsom's order I would expect it'll happen. I'm not usually this type of person but all the pieces are in place. Tesla cars get over the air updates so it's not hard to have a system that tells the government how much charge your car has. It's coming for highway taxes. As gas sales drop road repair money will need to come from somewhere. Either it'll be a flat tax or it'll be the government tracking your mileage (which most states do when you get your car's yearly inspection). The next step is for your car to just upload the mileage and GPS location (including where you drove). That could mean warnings for people who do not plug your car into the grid and eventually fines. The part of me resists this because it makes me feel less free. But a part of me sees it as the future.


If your daily commute is less than the capacity of the battery, charging time isn't really a concern.

Most of us Americans travel 16 miles each way to work.
The speed at which we travel (even on major highways) is often well below posted limits during peak rush hours. This implies idling in stop and go traffic.

The two overlooked, superior characteristics of EVs in this application are power consumption at idle (near zero) and cleaner air on the route.

There's some speculative talk about passenger vehicles with near 600 mile range on a single charge within this decade. The truth is that few of us drive that far on a regular basis.

EVs today are built to handle what people really do with their cars - mostly within 100 miles of their homes.


https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27288/goodbye-range-anxiety-startup-claims-big-ev-battery-breakthrough-with-600-miles-of-range

My current lease has a claimed 239 mile range that I've bested in our first three weeks - 310 miles of mixed highway and local road driving before the "charge needed" alert chimed.

This is a second generation EV, at $250 a month that gets this range TODAY.

I can't imagine what it will buy in 2030.

The EV cars are getting better and better. They will surely overtake internal combustion cars at some point. But if we burn natural gas or coal to power the charging stations, how much have we gained? Solar and wind doesn’t work all the time.

[Ben Helmich]

Back in 2016 (I think) the air force base in LA switched to all EVs and started the concept of using the battery in the EV to send power to the grid. So the technology is there. Then EV companies jumped on it to promote sales. Just think. If the power goes out you can use the battery in your car to power your house. Sounds great until you think about it. What's to stop your charging station from doing the same thing and sending the power back into the grid? Look up V2G technology. The next step will be the government not giving you an option about whether or not you want to sell your power back to the grid.

Until this year I would of said it's very unlikely but between the virus and Newsom's order I would expect it'll happen. I'm not usually this type of person but all the pieces are in place. Tesla cars get over the air updates so it's not hard to have a system that tells the government how much charge your car has. It's coming for highway taxes. As gas sales drop road repair money will need to come from somewhere. Either it'll be a flat tax or it'll be the government tracking your mileage (which most states do when you get your car's yearly inspection). The next step is for your car to just upload the mileage and GPS location (including where you drove). That could mean warnings for people who do not plug your car into the grid and eventually fines. The part of me resists this because it makes me feel less free. But a part of me sees it as the future.


Yes but realistically how often do you do that? 500 miles has gotta be 7 or 8 hours of driving. Even if you do it with any regularity what % of drivers also do? To fight climate change we don't need everyone to go electric full time.

360 mi to drive home to see family. And run around when I get there. More than once a month before 2020. Not many electrics can do that yet. But, sure, back and forth to work and running errands an electric would work just fine. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll be on the electric bandwagon when it’s ready. We just have to let it happen. It will happen. And I’m a mechanic. I think internal combustion engines are awesome. But I’ll jump ship when the electric cars are cheaper to operate.

[Doug Garson]

The EV cars are getting better and better. They will surely overtake internal combustion cars at some point. But if we burn natural gas or coal to power the charging stations, how much have we gained? Solar and wind doesn’t work all the time.
In Canada we already produce over 80% of our electricity from non GHG sources and export about 8% of our electricity.

[Mel Fulks]

Ben, like me you have thought this through with clarity. Let's hope it catches on. There are enough fossils in the
Smithsonian. "Smoke 'em if you gottem' "

[Jim Matthews]

360 mi to drive home to see family. And run around when I get there. More than once a month before 2020. Not many electrics can do that yet.

2019 KIA Niro EV does this with a 30 minute recharge enroute.



https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1122838_busting-7-of-the-most-common-myths-about-electric-cars

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/cars/story/2020-02-02/2020-kia-niro-ev-239-miles-in-a-family-electric%3f_amp=true

[Jim Matthews]

There are enough fossils in the.. comment section
"Smoke 'em if you gottem' "

Fixed that forya.

[Lee DeRaud]

Or you could just wait for electric technology to mature. When it’s a better deal financially, it will go mainstream.You do realize that's part of the point of making this effective in fifteen years rather than now, right?

[Bill Dufour]

Never been but I often pass the sign "this way to the slot car track". I understand many of the go cart tracks have switched to electric, espically the indoor ones. I think bumper cars were always electric.
Bil lD

[Brian Elfert]

2019 KIA Niro EV does this with a 30 minute recharge enroute.



That trip should be doable in 5 to 6 hours depending on what type of highways exist between the two points. It is a trip that many drivers could easily do straight through with a stop for fuel. I personally don't think an extra 20 minutes to refuel is a big deal, but I am sure it is a big deal to some drivers.

I would like to get an electric vehicle, but nobody makes a full electric mini-van yet and I wouldn't buy one if it was over about $30,000. (I realize a lot of gasoline mini-vans are over $30,000, but I only paid $20,000 for my 2016 Grand Caravan SE.) I have solar, but solar doesn't really help much since my vehicle isn't at home much of the time the sun is shining. A lot will change by 2030 and a reasonable electrical vehicle will probably be an option by then. I have a motorhome too. There is an electric version coming out, but it has a whole 200 mile range with four hours to charge! I get at least 800 miles per tank in my motorhome because the tank is huge.

[Jim Matthews]

I would like to get an electric vehicle, but nobody makes a full electric mini-van yet and I wouldn't buy one if it was over about $30,000.

Me, neither. I only got into my EV because Kia offered an incentive to bring the price near $25,000.
Cars over $30,000 make my Clan MacFrugal kilt itch.




I have solar, but solar doesn't really help much since my vehicle isn't at home much of the time the sun is shining.

Grid connected PV panels typically have "net metering" where the current supplied into the grid is credited against your consumption, whenever it's used.

Most EVs have a charge timer, to take advantage of cheaper electric rates in the early morning.

The local valuation of roof generated power isn't enough for me to install panels. Even at today's prices, it's more than 15 years to break even.

[Bill Dufour]

I wonder how electrical charging costs will look in the future. Will it be like gas and they charge a lot more in the mountains with no competition and also high in the big city.
Bil lD

[Brian Elfert]

Grid connected PV panels typically have "net metering" where the current supplied into the grid is credited against your consumption, whenever it's used.

Most EVs have a charge timer, to take advantage of cheaper electric rates in the early morning.


I have net metering with my solar, but am I really charging with solar then? Net metering is going away in a lot of areas. In Hawaii solar usage is so high due to the high electric rates that you are not allowed to generate more electric than your current usage. The grid in many neighborhoods was getting overloaded by large amounts of power being generated by solar.

To get low rates for off peak usage we have to have a separate meter for the off peak usage. We have smart meters so not sure why they can't track usage by the hour.

[Bill Dufour]

My utility installed smart meters and they are very dumb. Ours just shows a odometer of total usage since installed like any older meter. There is not any indication of current useage. I think the utility thinks we are not smart enough to figure out any more then that.
My mothers was much smarter it shows total usage, then cycles between volts, amps and something else maybe frequency or load factor?
As a kid we used to go watch the meter disk spin fast when dad welded.
Bil lD
Bil lD

[Mike Henderson]

My utility installed smart meters and they are very dumb. Ours just shows a odometer of total usage since installed like any older meter. There is not any indication of current useage. I think the utility thinks we are not smart enough to figure out any more then that.
My mothers was much smarter it shows total usage, then cycles between volts, amps and something else maybe frequency or load factor?
As a kid we used to go watch the meter disk spin fast when dad welded.

Bil lD

Many "smart" meters are read through a wireless connection. The meter reports quite a bit of information about usage to the company and they present this data to you on their web site. I never look at my smart meter itself - I go to the website and look at when I'm using my electricity.

Mike

[Kev Williams]

Every digital power meter I've seen in the past few years has a 'tattletale' flashing light. Small meters you can buy for your own use have a red flashing LED. Home power meters like mine have a flashing infrared light. If you have an infrared security camera or any other camera, you can see if your power meter is so equipped...

I have an OLD set of Sony security camera's, I just shot a quick 7- second video of the back yard camera on screen-
lower-middle far left of the screen you'll see the infrared light on top of the meter flash-


https://youtu.be/2qR1G8NRbt0

I don't know the exact count-rate of the flash of this power meter but from what I've read most meters flash 1000x per kW. (I bought a power meter to use at the boat harbor years ago, and it flashed at the rate of 800 flashes per kilowatt.) It's past at midnight on Sunday I'm still working, the basement and garage lights are all ablaze, and I have 3 machines running. Hard to time my flashes with this clip but it looked like about 12 flashes per 10 seconds, so 72 flashes per minute--1000/72 means I'm burning a kW every 13.9 minutes... at 8c per kW... 43,800 minutes in a month, /13.9 = 3151.07 kW, x .08 per = $252.08 per month at this rate. My equal pay is about $420, so I'm assuming the math is close ;) - I would need to count flashes for a full minute to be more accurate of course...

Anyway, get out your night vision and check your meter! :D

As to watching the old meter spin, I've counted over 5 flashes per second more than once, when the machines are running, the hot tub is heating water, the wife is drying clothes, it's scary!

[Jim Matthews]

I have net metering with my solar, but am I really charging with solar then?

You're using the grid as storage for your excess output, effectively lowering the baseline "burn".
This helps reduce usage of "peaker" plants that are fired on demand. Solar output tends to be highest when Air Conditioners are running through warm days.

https://www.ge.com/power/transform/article.transform.articles.2018.oct.storage-threat-to-peaker-plants




Net metering is going away in a lot of areas.


Power companies have seen a drop in sales (naturally) while PV "suppliers" use their cabling.
The complaint is that net metering effectively subsidizes those that can afford PV installations.

It's really a question of which power source taxpayers want to subsidize.

https://www.ewg.org/energy/22777/federal-energy-subsidies-what-are-we-getting-our-money



In Hawaii solar usage is so high due to the high electric rates that you are not allowed to generate more electric than your current usage. The grid in many neighborhoods was getting overloaded by large amounts of power being generated by solar.

"When a study showed that with upgrades the system could handle more solar than the company assumed, the Hawaiian Public Utility Commission (PUC) ordered the utility to start approving more installations, or prove why it couldn’t. In compliance, Hawaiian Electric upgraded circuits and meters to better regulate flow of electricity, in an effort to find balance between energy produced and energy used."

In brief : the Hawaii power regulators called Shenanigans and compromised.
There's definitely a cap, but homeowners are migrating to home power storage (batteries) to keep their PVs and ditch a utility that charges more, for less.

Since Hawaii imports their fuel, its a sensible choice- import batteries instead and "decouple" from a monopoly.

http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/ArticlesMain/tabid/56/ID/11676/Decoupling-How-HECOs-quotMoney-Printing-Machinequot-Causes-High-Electric-Rates.aspx



To get low rates for off peak usage we have to have a separate meter for the off peak usage. We have smart meters so not sure why they can't track usage by the hour.

Your utility probably publish TOU rates.

https://blog.aurorasolar.com/how-time-of-use-rates-work/

[Brian Elfert]

Your utility probably publish TOU rates.

https://blog.aurorasolar.com/how-time-of-use-rates-work/

There is an optional TOU plan, but you would be crazy to use it. They charge 45 cents per KWh between 4 pm and 8 pm when most houses use most of their power, especially with A/C in the summer. You would have to use a ton of power at night to offset the high day rates.

I see they added a specific rate plan for electric vehicle charging. It requires a separate meter for the electric car charging circuit(s). Power is only available from 11 pm to 7 am and is charged at 4.5 cents per KWh.

[Jim Matthews]

There is an optional TOU plan, but you would be crazy to use it.

45 cents per kW? I thought our electric was expensive at 22 cents/kW. Sounds like a deliberate disincentive.




I see they added a specific rate plan for electric vehicle charging. It requires a separate meter for the electric car charging circuit(s). Power is only available from 11 pm to 7 am and is charged at 4.5 cents per KWh.

What are the hidden delivery charges on top of that?

We installed a 220 leg off our subpanel (from house expansion, before we owned it) to run my Bandsaw and Jointer. I just changed the socket to fit my Siemens charge point. It would be pretty simple to meter just that outlet.

That said, my out of pocket cost compared to gas motors on the same daily driving is running 1/3 to 1/2 less than on gasoline, even at $1.80/gallon.

The real plus is avoiding gas stations - I plug in at home.

[Ben Helmich]

That trip should be doable in 5 to 6 hours depending on what type of highways exist between the two points. It is a trip that many drivers could easily do straight through with a stop for fuel. I personally don't think an extra 20 minutes to refuel is a big deal, but I am sure it is a big deal to some drivers.

I would like to get an electric vehicle, but nobody makes a full electric mini-van yet and I wouldn't buy one if it was over about $30,000. (I realize a lot of gasoline mini-vans are over $30,000, but I only paid $20,000 for my 2016 Grand Caravan SE.) I have solar, but solar doesn't really help much since my vehicle isn't at home much of the time the sun is shining. A lot will change by 2030 and a reasonable electrical vehicle will probably be an option by then. I have a motorhome too. There is an electric version coming out, but it has a whole 200 mile range with four hours to charge! I get at least 800 miles per tank in my motorhome because the tank is huge.

I’d be interested in an electric pick up. 500 mi is as far as I like to go without taking a break to eat and walk around a little, so a 500 mi range and 30 min charge time would work. Assuming there was a charger available at the gas station or whatever. If there was a few people in line that 30 min stop would turn into hours in a hurry.

[Malcolm McLeod]

Most, if not all, of the Major US oil companies have business plans in place that anticipate ALL new light utility vehicles in the world will be EVs by 2040 (give or take a couple years, depending on which you look at) - - government decree or not. 'Light Utility' being defined as anything from 1/2t truck or smaller. ...Lifestyle adjustments may be necessary?

Your guess is as good as mine - or Big Oil's - if it will come to pass.

[Doug Garson]

I've always been puzzled by power generation in Hawaii. Been there half a dozen times and it seems the wind is always blowing and the sun shines 300+ days a year, plus with the volcanic action, there must be lot's of geothermal potential. There is no oil, gas or coal on the islands. Given all that I would have expected them to be an early adopter of wind, solar and geothermal power yet the majority (around 90%) of electricity on the islands is still generated from fossil fuels and they have the highest electricity rates in the country when they could have among the lowest.

[Andrew Joiner]

Assuming there was a charger available at the gas station or whatever. If there was a few people in line that 30 min stop would turn into hours in a hurry.
Good point Ben.

[Mike Henderson]

Here in California there's so much solar installed that the cheapest rates are when the sun is shining. The highest rates are from sundown to about 9pm.

So you can't make money pushing your solar generated electricity back to the grid - the rates are too low.

Mike

[Regarding chargers when you're traveling: Tesla (and I suppose others) show you the locations of chargers and tell you whether they're in use or not. Probably even tell you if there are people waiting.]

[Brian Elfert]

45 cents per kW? I thought our electric was expensive at 22 cents/kW. Sounds like a deliberate disincentive.

What are the hidden delivery charges on top of that?


The TOU rate is not intended for a typical house. This was the rate that was originally for electric cars and other things that could easily run only at night. The intent was either to meter just the electric car circuits, or to meter a detached garage that uses little power. It allowed charging or other power use during the day if need be.

The electric car rate has no extra delivery charges. There is a power cost adjustment that is generally in the hundredths of a cent and can be a credit some months.

[Thomas L Carpenter]

The problem I have with electric cars is not range. More charging stations are showing up every day. The problem I have is refueling time. A fill up takes an hour or more even using the Tesla "Super charger" stations. Off brand charging stations charge at the rate of 5 or 10 miles of range per hour of charge. Building more charge stations won't fix that problem. I am waiting for another technological breakthrough to solve the slow charge problem.

On another subject, what do you suppose the price of electricity is going to do when the overwhelming majority of drivers depend on it? My prediction is that it will cost the same per mile as gasoline does today. Unfortunately, that dramatic increase in price will also apply to electricity for your home. Electricity prices in California are already 3 times what they are where I live.

There is been some work done with embedding charging coils into the roadways so that electric vehicles will be charged as they move similar to those systems that charge cell phones and tablets without a physical connection. I would think that such things are a looong ways down the road ( so to speak).

[Jim Becker]

Thomas, there's a project somewhere in the EU right now to do just that with a short bus route (only about a mile) as a proof of concept project, if I'm not mistaken.

[Stephen Rosenthal]

Late to this discussion, so I don’t know if this has been mentioned (I’m not going to read through all the posts). The banning of new gas powered vehicles beginning in 2035 is an executive order from the current Governor. An executive order can be overruled by the courts or legislature, or can be negated by a future Governor. I live in California. There are many entities (residents and businesses) that are very unhappy with this decree, so it would not surprise me if it did not take effect.

[Thomas Canfield]

I've always been puzzled by power generation in Hawaii. Been there half a dozen times and it seems the wind is always blowing and the sun shines 300+ days a year, plus with the volcanic action, there must be lot's of geothermal potential. There is no oil, gas or coal on the islands. Given all that I would have expected them to be an early adopter of wind, solar and geothermal power yet the majority (around 90%) of electricity on the islands is still generated from fossil fuels and they have the highest electricity rates in the country when they could have among the lowest.
I visited the Big Island Hawaii several times and thought that the wind farm up on the North side made sense since the wind always seemed to blow, that was the end of the line and power could be fed backward toward main power, and all the fuel for power generation had to be imported. Then one trip, not one of the wind turbines were turning. Locals told me there was not enough wind. Green power energy does have some limitations and needs a backup plan.

[Jim Matthews]

Then one trip, not one of the wind turbines were turning. Locals told me there was not enough wind. Green power energy does have some limitations and needs a backup plan.

https://www.highviewpower.com/
Compressed (liquid) air


https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/flow-battery
Industrial scale "flow" batteries


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/wind-power-turbine-storage-electricity-appliances/
Flywheel arrays

These are currently available, mature storage media.

While there are days when the wind doesn't blow fast enough to turn the blades, more often Wind farms are idled because of grid curtailment - there's no immediate demand for the power produced.

[Lee DeRaud]

Late to this discussion, so I don’t know if this has been mentioned (I’m not going to read through all the posts). The banning of new gas powered vehicles beginning in 2035 is an executive order from the current Governor. An executive order can be overruled by the courts or legislature, or can be negated by a future Governor. I live in California. There are many entities (residents and businesses) that are very unhappy with this decree, so it would not surprise me if it did not take effect.That reminds me of an old joke:

A thief was caught in the act and sentenced to die. Hauled up before the king, he was asked by the Royal Presence: "Is there any reason at all why I shouldn't have your head off right now?" To which he replied: "Oh, King, live forever! Know that I am the greatest teacher in your kingdom, and it would surely be a waste to kill such a great teacher. So skilled am I that I could even teach your favorite horse to sing, given a year to work on it." The king was amused, and said: "Very well then, you move into the stable immediately, and if the horse isn't singing a year from now, we'll think of something interesting to do with you."

As he was returning to his cell to pick up his spare rags, his cellmate remonstrated with him: "Now that was really stupid. You know you can't teach that horse to sing, no matter how long you try." His response: "Not at all. I have a year now that I didn't have before. And a lot of things can happen in a year. The king might die. The horse might die. I might die.

"And, who knows? Maybe the horse will sing."

Feel free to come back in 15 years to say, "I told you so."

[Art Mann]

Your range and charge time are just wishful thinking. If you are towing a trailer or have a load on the truck, the range is more likely to be 200 miles than 500. Recharge time is likely to be more like 2 hours than 30 minutes if you use the full range of the vehicle before recharging. There is a video on Youtube where some guys did an experiment using the full towing capacity of an S model and this is the results they got.

I’d be interested in an electric pick up. 500 mi is as far as I like to go without taking a break to eat and walk around a little, so a 500 mi range and 30 min charge time would work. Assuming there was a charger available at the gas station or whatever. If there was a few people in line that 30 min stop would turn into hours in a hurry.

[Jim Matthews]

https://www.zap-map.com/charge-points/tesla-model-x-charging-guide/

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/18/tesla-model-3-v3-supercharging-times-2-to-100-state-of-charge-video/

https://youtu.be/7QM1o_0nyqQ

Just the facts, Mann.

[Bill Dufour]

I think the mega chargers are not for cars. Probably melt the battery in a minute or less.
Bil lD.

[Doug Garson]

Guess what? Not only are electric cars better for the environment, they are the fastest 0 to 60 mph. Maybe the California governor is actually a secret super performance car fan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRBAFlhMP8A

[Jim Becker]

Electric motors have amazing torgue which can really move vehicles "off the line". That was one of the things I loved about the hybrids we drove for awhile. Zero hesitation when the skinny pedal went to the floor to get out of our driveway and not get hit by a stone truck or something. :)

[Keith Outten]

Search our archives we have a Member who built and raced a battery powered dragster.

[Alan Lightstone]

The idea of using the battery in your car to power your house during a power failure is a good idea - if you want to do that. You may need your car for transportation so you might decide not to do that.

Mike

Living in sunny Florida, and having a Tesla and a solar array that consistently produces a surplus that we send to the utility, I think about that a lot.

Hurricanes are a real issue here, and we have to prepare for them most years, and will almost certainly lose power when one comes (been there). Sadly, our utility lines are overhead, and surrounded by 100+ year old oak trees.

Duke Energy (our utility) mandates that our solar array automatically disconnect when the grid goes down. So I have this huge solar array, and it's useless as they don't allow islanding. If only there was this $10 device called a contactor that could eliminate the risk. If only..... And, of course, it already has one connected to the array.

There is net billing here, and no time-of-day surcharges, so battery backups like the Tesla Powerwall make zero economic sense right now. If that changes, I'll get one in a second, but that's $20K. Of course, the utility charges you $0.13/kWh for electricity you use, but only pays you $0.03/kWh for surplus, so that's a major ripoff. But I digress..

A few years ago I heard that Tesla was going to allow/provide a setup where your car's battery could provide power to your house in case of a blackout, and be charged by the solar array. I was thrilled to hear that. Never happened. Would have gotten it.

As far as using your electric car in a blackout - not going to happen. Imagine being stuck in a traffic jam fleeing the area, with no superchargers nearby, or potentially working.

As I've told friends, I finally figured out what use my Tesla would be in a hurricane. It's the world's most expensive iPhone charger. :rolleyes:

[Doug Garson]

Note that unless they have a backup generator, gas stations can't pump gas during a blackout so if your car is out of fuel or battery charge in a blackout you're stuck either way.

[Mike Henderson]

Living in sunny Florida, and having a Tesla and a solar array that consistently produces a surplus that we send to the utility, I think about that a lot.

Hurricanes are a real issue here, and we have to prepare for them most years, and will almost certainly lose power when one comes (been there). Sadly, our utility lines are overhead, and surrounded by 100+ year old oak trees.

Duke Energy (our utility) mandates that our solar array automatically disconnect when the grid goes down. So I have this huge solar array, and it's useless as they don't allow islanding. If only there was this $10 device called a contactor that could eliminate the risk. If only..... And, of course, it already has one connected to the array.

There is net billing here, and no time-of-day surcharges, so battery backups like the Tesla Powerwall make zero economic sense right now. If that changes, I'll get one in a second, but that's $20K. Of course, the utility charges you $0.13/kWh for electricity you use, but only pays you $0.03/kWh for surplus, so that's a major ripoff. But I digress..

A few years ago I heard that Tesla was going to allow/provide a setup where your car's battery could provide power to your house in case of a blackout, and be charged by the solar array. I was thrilled to hear that. Never happened. Would have gotten it.

As far as using your electric car in a blackout - not going to happen. Imagine being stuck in a traffic jam fleeing the area, with no superchargers nearby, or potentially working.

As I've told friends, I finally figured out what use my Tesla would be in a hurricane. It's the world's most expensive iPhone charger. :rolleyes:

There are a couple of issues with using your solar array when power from the grid fails:

1. If your array is connected to the grid, and operating, it will be delivering voltage to the transformer that supplies your house and that transformer will be stepping up the voltage to the transmission voltage - maybe 44K Volts - on the wires that feed power to your neighborhood. That can kill someone working to restore power - or even someone walking in the area who encounters a fallen power cable. The same is true of people who have backup generators - those must be used with a transfer switch that removes the generator and house from the grid while the generator is in operation.

2. Let's say that you isolate your house and solar from the grid and the solar operates to supply power to your home. The problem is that there's no buffer in the system. In normal operation when you're connected to the grid and your solar is providing power, shortages of power from your solar (such as when a cloud goes over) are made up by taking power from the grid. Without that, the voltage to your house would fall and most of your appliances would quit. So you need something - a battery or a generator - to make up these droops in the supply. Your electric car could provide that buffer rather than paying for batteries in your house. You'd have to manage the use so that you don't deplete the charge in your car and leave you without transportation. And by trading off electricity use in your home during a power failure, you could even charge your car. The disadvantage is that when you use your car to go somewhere during the power failure you also lose power in your home. But you may be willing to make that tradeoff for the cost saving of not having batteries in your home.

I expect that electric vehicles are not designed and programmed to do this today but it is technically possible.

Mike

[Jim Matthews]

Living in sunny Florida, and having a Tesla and a solar array that consistently produces a surplus that we send to the utility, I think about that a lot.

Hurricanes are a real issue here, and we have to prepare for them most years, and will almost certainly lose power when one comes (been there). Sadly, our utility lines are overhead, and surrounded by 100+ year old oak trees.



I have an LG battery backup operating as a generator.
It's on a transfer switch. I get about 10 hours run time if all our systems (including furnace) run constantly.

It lasts longer if I can keep my doofus teenagers out of the refrigerator when the power is out.

I expect that if Florida's transmission lines become unstable, that $20k battery installation and grid disconnections will become common.

Dunno where the breakpoint is, but it's somewhere between overnight and Puerto Rico's recovery from Maria. Imagine 3 months, with no AC and limited gas/natural gas/propane supplies for your generator.

Nissan has retrofitted their popular Leaf as a portable generator and recovery vehicle.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/nissan-leaf-electric-emergency-vehicle/



https://www.energysage.com/solar/solar-energy-storage/what-do-solar-batteries-cost/

[Alan Lightstone]

Interesting, Mike. The cutoff to prevent electrocuting linemen is already built into the system. So that already exists, and not letting electricity go to the house then is an excuse. If required to additionally need a transfer switch, there are already two built into the system. There simply doesn't seem to be any extra hardware that I require. I absolutely agree that serious protection needs to be built into the system. My point is that it already is there.

Your second point is very interesting. I agree that the car's battery could work as a buffer in case of clouds / night. I have set up my circuit breakers so that only 1/2 of the house would run during a blackout. A lesson you learn living in hurricane country is that all you need to stay in your house is 1 room with power and A/C, and a working refrigerator/freezer. You don't need to cool the entire house.

As I have two separate HVAC units (one on each floor), we would need 1 floor to have A/C - the same floor as the kitchen so fridge/freezer there too. I actually have energy monitoring circuitry built into that breaker panel, so I know how much each circuit / appliance uses. It is less than half the output of my solar panels, so clearly could work most daylight hours. Nighttime, you're on your own, or using the car battery, but keeping the fridge and freezer closed would work. HVAC - could get pretty toasty by morning if the car ran out of juice. I was setup to buy two Powerwalls, and if my solar company hadn't dropped the ball, I'd already have two. But I don't.

But my Tesla battery (85kWh) is the equivalent of 6 Powerwalls. Newer ones are the equivalent of >7 Powerwalls.
Easily enough to get through the night, then charge in daytime. My typical summer days I produce 135kWh. I do have an ICE car, which I would use and not use the Tesla during a blackout, so fortunately I could avoid that scenario.

My long-winded point here is that it really should be possible to do this, in a safe manner, making my environment safer after a hurricane / power failure. But it presently isn't. It should be allowable to go off the grid here. But it isn't.

Thanks for your interesting insights, Mike. Raised some additional points I hadn't thought of. I appreciate that.

[Alan Lightstone]

Note that unless they have a backup generator, gas stations can't pump gas during a blackout so if your car is out of fuel or battery charge in a blackout you're stuck either way.

After the 4 hurricanes in Florida in 2004 they passed a law requiring gas stations to get generators. Out of interest, I would always look for them when driving. Only 1 gas station near here had one. They've since closed. At least here, the law has been ignored. So, good luck getting gas if the big one hits. :eek:

[Jim Matthews]

and house from the The problem is that there's no buffer in the system. In normal operation when you're connected to the grid and your solar is providing power, shortages of power from your solar (such as when a cloud goes over) are made up by taking power from the grid. Without that, the voltage to your house would fall and most of your appliances would quit. So you need something - a battery or a generator - to make up these droops in the supply. Your electric car could provide that buffer rather than paying for batteries in your house. You'd have to manage the use so that you don't deplete the charge in your car and leave you without transportation. And by trading off electricity use in your home during a power failure, you could even charge your car. The disadvantage is that when you use your car to go somewhere during the power failure you also lose power in your home. But you may be willing to make that tradeoff for the cost saving of not having batteries in your home.

I expect that electric vehicles are not designed and programmed to do this today but it is technically possible.

Mike

The regulatory environment constrains this in the US.
There are pilot examples operating in Australia, today.

These require a sophisticated line monitor and robust transfer switching, but it is possible - with off the shelf gear. It's really a question of distributed or centralized power generation.

Not cheap - but more fault tolerant.

Here's the TV program that got me to consider this.


https://joshshouse.com.au/

[Brian Elfert]

The whole shut down of solar during a power outage is silly to me. I have this huge solar array and can't use it when the power is out? My understanding is grid-tie solar inverters are less expensive because they can match up with the grid for generating 60 hertz power. Solar inverters that work with a battery bank are way more expensive.

The power company had to come out and check out my solar system before I could turn it on. The only thing they really cared about is that it quit making power when disconnected from the grid.

[Alan Lightstone]

The whole shut down of solar during a power outage is silly to me. I have this huge solar array and can't use it when the power is out? My understanding is grid-tie solar inverters are less expensive because they can match up with the grid for generating 60 hertz power. Solar inverters that work with a battery bank are way more expensive.

The power company had to come out and check out my solar system before I could turn it on. The only thing they really cared about is that it quit making power when disconnected from the grid.

Brian:

How does you solar system work in the winter with all the snow you must get up there? Do you have to actively get snow off them?

[Alan Lightstone]

This thread got me thinking about the math a little differently regarding my solar array and a battery system like the Tesla Powerwall. If I actually did get two installed, and used them every night to power the house, in theory I would not use 1907 Kwh of electricity from the grid every month. I would avoid their rate of $0.13/KwH for that, so saving $248/mo for that.

But wait.... Not so simple. Let's cut that in half, because I can only power half the house off the grid with two Powerwalls, so down to saving $124/month. My average surplus is 2414 KwH/month to the grid, but again lets take off 90 KwH to charge the Powerwalls every day. So down to a surplus every month of 2324 KwH /month.

Half of the house (where we typically sleep and work at night) is in the part of the house that wouldn't be covered by the Powerwalls. Assuming that we use 1/3 of our daily energy at night, for 1/2 of the house, we would have to get about 620 KwH/month from the grid at night no matter what. So now we're down to a surplus of 1704 KwH/month to the utility.

Duke Energy charges you $10.90/month just to bill you and for you to be a customer. Oh joy. That equals 84 KwH, so have to subtract that too. Down to 1620 KwH/month of surplus to Duke Energy.

So summarizing the economics here, at their rate of paying you back of only $0.0325/KwH, they would pay me back $52.65/month if I bought two Tesla Powerwalls. Payback for the purchase would take 32 years. :eek: And since, with discharging them every night, they would probably last 10 years, buying them for economic reasons is pure folly.

I'm sure I screwed up one or more or all of my assumptions above, but at least for now, no Tesla Powerwalls in my future.

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

At the price of non-internal combustion cars, there's going to be a great many pedestrians out there.

[Jim Matthews]

At the price of non-internal combustion cars, there's going to be a great many pedestrians out there.

My car costs me $250 per month, and I could buy it outright for $25,000.

At $ .22 per KWH each mile costs me about $ .05.

At $ 2.00 per gallon, each mile costs about $.08.

15,000 miles at $.05 = $750 for a year

15,000 miles at $.08 = $1200 for a year.

That doesn't include oil changes, belts, etc.

It's not out of reach, today and prices are coming down. https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21450916/tesla-battery-pack-elon-musk-price-kilowatt-hour-ev-cost-tabless

[Lee DeRaud]

Half of the house (where we typically sleep and work at night) is in the part of the house that wouldn't be covered by the Powerwalls.Ok, I'll bite: why would you deliberately do something that, um, non-optimal?
(I'm trying hard to be polite here, but it's just not working...)

[Lee DeRaud]

At the price of non-internal combustion cars, there's going to be a great many pedestrians out there.Oh dear lord. Again, if this were happening today, that might be a problem. (Or not.) But it isn't, so try thinking in terms of fifteen years from now.

This isn't fifty years ago, when a typical 15-year-old car was a smoking rust-bucket. Hint: a rather large number of IC cars from 2020 will still be running in 2035, not to mention the ones from 2034, 2033, 2032...

[Doug Garson]

At the price of non-internal combustion cars, there's going to be a great many pedestrians out there.
Sounds like win win, less CO2 emissions, cleaner air and a more fit population.

[Doug Garson]

My car costs me $250 per month, and I could buy it outright for $25,000.

At $ .22 per KWH each mile costs me about $ .05.

At $ 2.00 per gallon, each mile costs about $.08.

15,000 miles at $.05 = $750 for a year

15,000 miles at $.08 = $1200 for a year.

That doesn't include oil changes, belts, etc.

It's not out of reach, today and prices are coming down. https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21450916/tesla-battery-pack-elon-musk-price-kilowatt-hour-ev-cost-tabless
I posted this earlier (post 67) there are already some cases where lifetime cost of electric vehicles is cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles.
https://www.corporateknights.com/channels/clean-technology/faceoff-electric-vs-gas-cars-on-cost-15555966/#:~:text=Based%20on%20data%20from%20Pollution,on%2 0data%20from%20Canada%20Drives.&text=Repair%20and%20insurance%20costs%20are%20abou t%20equal.

[Stan Calow]

At the price of non-internal combustion cars, there's going to be a great many pedestrians out there.
or better, more convenient public transportation.

They're not trying to sell electric vehicles to you or me, they're selling it to our grandkids. I wish I still had my '70s era 11 mpg 350 V8 Camaro, but its just not that important to the young folks I know these days.

Energy prices, gasoline or electricity, are too unstable to project current low rates into the future for very long. The oil & gas companies are betting heavily on alternative energy by investing in it (so they can control it too) so they must think its the future too.

[Nicholas Lawrence]

Ok, I'll bite: why would you deliberately do something that, um, non-optimal?
(I'm trying hard to be polite here, but it's just not working...)

Let me try to help you:

“Dear Mr. Lighthouse: What prevents you from using the Powerwall in the part of the house you spend most of your time in?”

Or if you just have to be rude to somebody, you could add the following:

“You obviously are not a [insert insulting language of your choice here] since you already own a solar array and an electric vehicle, so I would like to put my vast experience and passion for solar energy to work helping you solve your problem.”

[Bill Dufour]

My car costs me $250 per month, and I could buy it outright for $25,000.

At $ .22 per KWH each mile costs me about $ .05.

At $ 2.00 per gallon, each mile costs about $.08.

15,000 miles at $.05 = $750 for a year

15,000 miles at $.08 = $1200 for a year.

That doesn't include oil changes, belts, etc.

It's not out of reach, today and prices are coming down. https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21450916/tesla-battery-pack-elon-musk-price-kilowatt-hour-ev-cost-tabless

But your state is only the size of a county in the west.
Bil lD

[Lee DeRaud]

Let me try to help you:

“Dear Mr. Lighthouse: What prevents you from using the Powerwall in the part of the house you spend most of your time in?”Or better yet, "Dear Mr. Lighthouse: Why would you use the assumption that you cannot use the Powerwall in the part of the house you spend most of your time in, unless it's solely for the purpose of supporting your decision not to buy one?"


Or if you just have to be rude to somebody...If I'd really wanted to be rude, I would have. Trust me on this.

[Doug Garson]

I think it is a valid question and there may be a valid answer why he wouldn't connect the part of the house used most at night to the power wall. No need to be rude, just curious.

[Jim Matthews]

But your state is only the size of a county in the west.
Bil lD

Certainly there are outliers in any sample. Oddly enough, people living in larger States appear to drive LESS than the National average.

https://www.carinsurance.com/Articles/average-miles-driven-per-year-by-state.aspx

To get a feel for average daily drives, divide each by 300.
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

[Lee DeRaud]

But your state is only the size of a county in the west.Oh great, now I've got this mental image of someone commuting from Needles to Chino in a Tesla. :)

That's pretty much corner-to-corner in the largest county in the lower 48..."only" about 225 miles.

[Stan Calow]

so today Harley Davidson announced their new electric bicycle. Its pretty cool looking. I guess they're on board with this too.

[Bill Dufour]

Polaris bought a Swedish electric truck maker several years ago. I am still waiting for the electric snow mobile or quad.
Bil lD

[Jim Matthews]

so today Harley Davidson announced their new electric bicycle. Its pretty cool looking. I guess they're on boards with this too.

"Serial 1"

Shut up and take my money!

[Jim Matthews]

Polaris bought a Swedish electric truck maker several years ago. I am still waiting for the electric snow mobile or quad.
Bil lD

https://www.atv.com/products/electric-atvs-a-consumers-guide-1625.html

https://ranger.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-ev/

“The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." ― William Gibson

[Alan Lightstone]

Ok, I'll bite: why would you deliberately do something that, um, non-optimal?
(I'm trying hard to be polite here, but it's just not working...)

Because the initial plan was to get a Powerwall for a power outage (most likely in a hurricane, but our power was out earlier this month for 4 hours for whatever happened with the grid). Three floors in the house, but the kitchen and guest bedroom on one floor. This would be using only one, not two HVAC units. That one floor is where we would live off the batteries if power went out. Plus, no elevator, and no desire to be climbing 4 stories up and down without power.

It sounds suboptimal on the surface, but I lot of thought went into which loads are on that one panel, which we then had an electrician make happen.

If we setup the house to have both floors, both AC units using the Powerwall, it would take four Powerwalls - $44K.

[Alan Lightstone]

My car costs me $250 per month, and I could buy it outright for $25,000.

At $ .22 per KWH each mile costs me about $ .05.

At $ 2.00 per gallon, each mile costs about $.08.

15,000 miles at $.05 = $750 for a year

15,000 miles at $.08 = $1200 for a year.

That doesn't include oil changes, belts, etc.

It's not out of reach, today and prices are coming down. https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21450916/tesla-battery-pack-elon-musk-price-kilowatt-hour-ev-cost-tabless

My numbers come out even better here in Florida, as electricity is cheaper than what you quoted.

At $0.13/KwH each mile costs me about $0.04 (I must be driving my car faster, I use about 330 watts / mile.)

At $2.94/gallon (premium for my ICE car), each mile costs me about $0.15

15,000 miles at $0.04 = $600 for a year
15,000 at $0.15 = $2,250 for a year.

That being said, no way my Tesla would at $135K ever pay for itself with gas savings. Not having to need tune-ups helps - most years my only expense is tires. Or the occasional 12V battery replacement.

Much of the problem with electric cars is having enough infrastructure to charge them. Tesla has done far better than other manufacturers and has a several year lead in this. Owning one, you do think differently than with an ICE car. You frequently think about how much charge you have left. It just goes with the territory. Even if there is a supercharger nearby, it might take an hour to charge the car instead of 5 min at a gas station for an ICE car. Like I said, you just think and plan differently owning one.

Also, how the electricity is generated for the car makes all the difference in the world about preventing pollution. Using a coal-fired plant to produce the electricity for an electric car, well ...

[Jim Matthews]

Also, how the electricity is generated for the car makes all the difference in the world about preventing pollution. Using a coal-fired plant to produce the electricity for an electric car, well ...

The efficient usage of power (burning electrons or dinosaur bones) makes a difference in CO2 output.

Electric cars still lead on the emissions front, when every stage of refining fuel is tabulated.

The lack of tailpipe emissions means you can improve that further, by further "scrubbing" smokestack effluent.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change

[Doug Garson]

The efficient usage of power (burning electrons or dinosaur bones) makes a difference in CO2 output.

Electric cars still lead on the emissions front, when every stage of refining fuel is tabulated.

The lack of tailpipe emissions means you can improve that further, by further "scrubbing" smokestack effluent.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change
Agreed, while the best solution in most locations is to eliminate using fossil fuels to generate electricity, in some locations it is not practical yet but even in those cases, more can be done to reduce GHG emissions in a central power plant than in thousands of tail pipes.

[Brian Elfert]

How does you solar system work in the winter with all the snow you must get up there? Do you have to actively get snow off them?

I had both a roof mount and a ground mount until recently. They have both been removed and I am moving my solar to a new location that will be ground mount only. I hope to have the panels back online before the weather really gets bad this year.

Anyhow, the roof mount panels will have about two months of basically zero production over the winter due to snow cover. The eight hours of sun and the low sun angle means production is really low for the roof at that time of year anyhow. I will clean off the ground mount if there is a few inches or more of snow. Small snowfalls will melt off the ground mount panels due to the black frames and the steep angle of the panels. Last year I produced more than I used for the year and got a $400 check from the power company.

[Brian Elfert]

My car costs me $250 per month, and I could buy it outright for $25,000.


Are you buying or leasing for that kind of payment? If you are buying you probably didn't take out a $25,000 loan on the car for $250 a month. $25,000 at 0% interest would take 100 months to pay off at $250 per month.

[Mike Henderson]

I was in Germany a couple of years ago and was amazed at the amount of solar installed there. They're situated about even with Canada and get a lot of snow. But every farm, house, etc. had solar panels.

Mike

[Doug Garson]

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there is a major auto manufacturer in the world without at least one full electric or plug in hybrid car in their lineup or at least in late development. Some, like Volvo, have announced dates to phase out production of gas and diesel engines before 2035, Toyota's date is 2040, Daimler won't develop any new gas engines after 2026 .
Here's an interesting quote "As Daimler says: The car will change more in the next ten years than in the 100 years before. Engineers are working every day to improve electric drives and are also looking for technically even better alternatives every day. The exit from the combustion engine development is a clear signal for the development and not for the end of the car."

[Jim Matthews]

Are you buying or leasing for that kind of payment? If you are buying you probably didn't take out a $25,000 loan on the car for $250 a month. $25,000 at 0% interest would take 100 months to pay off at $250 per month.
Leasing at $250/month total of $6000.

Residual value (50%) pegged at $20,000.

I could buy it outright but I expect there will be more refined choices by the end of the lease term.

I'm hopeful that VW makes an electric bus affordable.

[Anthony Whitesell]

The efficient usage of power (burning electrons or dinosaur bones) makes a difference in CO2 output.

Electric cars still lead on the emissions front, when every stage of refining fuel is tabulated.


I was just thinking something similar. How many gallons of gasoline does it take to run the generate to recharge a Tesla one time?

Then there are the losses to consider. Fuel is consumed to make heat (loss) to make steam (loss) to turn a turbine (loss) to make electricity that travels over power lines (loss) through transformers (loss, though they are usually 99+% efficient) to the charging station converted into the power to charge the car (loss). Or you could put the fuel straight into your car (one loss).

[Mike Henderson]

I was just thinking something similar. How many gallons of gasoline does it take to run the generate to recharge a Tesla one time?

Then there are the losses to consider. Fuel is consumed to make heat (loss) to make steam (loss) to turn a turbine (loss) to make electricity that travels over power lines (loss) through transformers (loss, though they are usually 99+% efficient) to the charging station converted into the power to charge the car (loss). Or you could put the fuel straight into your car (one loss).

Of course, the goal is to have the electricity generated by wind or solar. The transmission loss for electricity is about 5%. A battery can return perhaps 95% of the energy used to charge it and an efficient electric motor can be perhaps 85 to 90% efficient.

The problem with an ICE is that they are very inefficient, about 20% to perhaps a maximum of 35%.

Looking at this a different way, let's suppose that we start with 100 units of energy. The electric car will have about 76 units of energy coming out of the motor.

The ICE will have between 20 and 35 units of energy out of the motor. The problem with ICEs is the energy loss to heat.

Mike

[Fuel cell cars - run on hydrogen - are not very efficient when you look at the entire energy chain. Again, assuming electricity from wind and solar, the energy in the hydrogen from electrolysis of water is about 70% of the electricity used to generate the hydrogen. Transportation of hydrogen is expensive so let's assume that hydrogen is made at the filling station. A hydrogen fuel cell is perhaps 50 to 60% efficient. The electricity from the fuel cell is put into a motor that is 85 to 90% efficient.

If we start with 100 units of energy, we wind up with about 30 units of energy out of the motor. And that's without considering any transportation costs for the hydrogen, or the cost to compress the hydrogen for use in the car.]

[Alan Lightstone]

Of course, the goal is to have the electricity generated by wind or solar.

Mike

And of course is the issue of how to deliver electricity when it is cloudy, nighttime, or the wind isn't blowing. This is where large battery arrays like what Tesla Energy delivered to South Australia are vital. And not cheap. That particular installation is a 129MwH battery pack. :eek:

https://electrek.co/2018/05/11/tesla-giant-battery-australia-reduced-grid-service-cost/

[Mike Henderson]

And of course is the issue of how to deliver electricity when it is cloudy, nighttime, or the wind isn't blowing. This is where large battery arrays like what Tesla Energy delivered to South Australia are vital. And not cheap. That particular installation is a 129MwH battery pack. :eek:

https://electrek.co/2018/05/11/tesla-giant-battery-australia-reduced-grid-service-cost/

There's a lot of work going on for storing electricity in the grid. One old technique is to pump water into an upper reservoir and then use that water to generate electricity (hydro power) when needed. That technique goes back many years. More modern techniques are grid scale batteries.

But one thing I know is that we (as a society) will find ways to store electricity in the grid - at least to the point were fossil fuel generators are only used for emergencies.

In not too many years the vast majority of our electricity will come from renewable sources.

Mike

[Doug Garson]

In not too many years the vast majority of our electricity will come from renewable sources.

Mike
Some countries are already there, Canada, 67% renewable and 82% non GHG emitting sources. According to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there are seven countries already at, or very, near 100 percent renewable power (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_r enewable_sources): Iceland (100 percent), Paraguay (100), Costa Rica (99), Norway (98.5), Austria (80), Brazil (75), and Denmark (69.4). The main renewables in these countries are hydropower, wind, geothermal, and solar.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-05-24/a-100-renewable-grid-isnt-just-feasible-its-already-happening/

[Brian Elfert]

Some countries are already there, Canada, 67% renewable and 82% non GHG emitting sources. According to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there are seven countries already at, or very, near 100 percent renewable power (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_r enewable_sources): Iceland (100 percent), Paraguay (100), Costa Rica (99), Norway (98.5), Austria (80), Brazil (75), and Denmark (69.4). The main renewables in these countries are hydropower, wind, geothermal, and solar.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-05-24/a-100-renewable-grid-isnt-just-feasible-its-already-happening/

Canada has huge amounts of hydroelectric power. So much so that there is a 500,000 volt power line running through Minnesota into Canada. Canada buys power from the USA in the winter due to lots of electric heat and the USA buys power from Canada in the summer for air conditioning.

Just about every country would like to meet their electric power needs with hydroelectric, but many places don't have the rivers to power hydroelectric.

[Mike Henderson]

Canada has huge amounts of hydroelectric power. So much so that there is a 500,000 volt power line running through Minnesota into Canada. Canada buys power from the USA in the winter due to lots of electric heat and the USA buys power from Canada in the summer for air conditioning.

Just about every country would like to meet their electric power needs with hydroelectric, but many places don't have the rivers to power hydroelectric.

I haven't looked to see where Denmark gets it's power but it's certainly not from hydro. Maybe nuclear? Iceland is geothermal and hydro.

Mike

[David Bassett]

I haven't looked to see where Denmark gets it's power but it's certainly not from hydro. Maybe nuclear? Iceland is 100% geothermal.

Mike

I don't know the percentage, but we saw lots of wind turbines when we were in Copenhagen a few years ago.

[Doug Garson]

Canada has huge amounts of hydroelectric power. So much so that there is a 500,000 volt power line running through Minnesota into Canada. Canada buys power from the USA in the winter due to lots of electric heat and the USA buys power from Canada in the summer for air conditioning.

Just about every country would like to meet their electric power needs with hydroelectric, but many places don't have the rivers to power hydroelectric.
Yes, 60% of our power is from hydro and we do buy and sell power with the US. But we are a net exporter of power, we export about four times as much as we import. While we may have an advantage when it comes to hydro, I think the US probably has greater solar power potential than Canada. I think the greatest hurdle to converting the majority of cars to electric using non GHG produced power is not technical. It can't be done overnight but doing it by 2035 should not be impossible. The biggest obstacle will be the oil and gas industry trying to maintain their profitability.

[Ben Helmich]

My car costs me $250 per month, and I could buy it outright for $25,000.

At $ .22 per KWH each mile costs me about $ .05.

At $ 2.00 per gallon, each mile costs about $.08.

15,000 miles at $.05 = $750 for a year

15,000 miles at $.08 = $1200 for a year.

That doesn't include oil changes, belts, etc.

It's not out of reach, today and prices are coming down. https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/21450916/tesla-battery-pack-elon-musk-price-kilowatt-hour-ev-cost-tabless

What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.

[Lee DeRaud]

Then there are the losses to consider. Fuel is consumed to make heat (loss) to make steam (loss) to turn a turbine (loss) to make electricity that travels over power lines (loss) through transformers (loss, though they are usually 99+% efficient) to the charging station converted into the power to charge the car (loss). Or you could put the fuel straight into your car (one loss).And the electricity to run the pumps at the station, the fuel to run the truck that delivered it there (and/or power the pumps to run it down the pipeline from the refinery), the energy used transporting the crude and during refining, and probably a bunch I didn't think of in the time it took to type this. If you're going to count losses, count all of them.

[Lee DeRaud]

What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.Certainly not cheap, if/when it happens and it comes out of your pocket. That said, Tesla warranty on its battery is 8 years or 150K miles. Toyota's (hybrid/plug-in) is 10/150K. Nissan Leaf is 8/100K. That's comparable to the better ICE drivetrain warranties and I'd expect those numbers to go up as the tech matures.

A related question: how does depreciation on a Tesla S compare to comparable cars?

[Jim Matthews]

What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.

What kills batteries isn't daily driving, it's excess heat generated during rapid charging (level 3). Most of the first generation batteries were pretty small (under 30 kWh) and had no coolant in the battery pack.

Most current versions do have thermal management.

From Kia's Warranty page:

The Lithium-Ion Polymer Battery (EV Battery) Capacity warranty coverage period is 8 years or 100,000 miles from the Date of First Service, whichever comes first, for capacity loss below 70% of the original battery capacity.

***
First generation Nissan Leaf and Toyota Prius battery packs replaced by dealer are stupid expensive.

Out of warranty, there are plenty of reasonable alternatives.

https://evcharging.enelx.com/news/blog/578-how-long-do-prius-batteries-last

Consumer Reports estimates the average EV battery pack’s lifespan to be at around 200,000 miles, which is nearly 17 years of use if driven 12,000 miles per year.

More current battery packs appear to be lasting longer than most people keep cars. Car and Driver figures we keep cars about 10 years, longer for pickups.

(No wonder, when a F150 costs nearly $45,000)



https://www.myev.com/research/ev-101/how-long-should-an-electric-cars-battery-last

I think EV offerings are improving rapidly, so I would only recommend shorter leases.

[Doug Garson]

What is the cost and lifespan of the battery in an electric car right now? I saw one replaced at a dealer a few years ago. It was thousands.
According to Tesla, their Model 3 battery has a lifespan of 300,000 to 500,000 miles. A replacement Tesla battery is $3000 to $7000 so take the average cost divided by the average life span and you get $0.0125 or 1.25 cents per mile or if you drive 15,000 miles per year once every 26.6 years or less than $200/ year. By comparison the average lifespan of an internal combustion engine is about 200,000 miles and the replacement cost is $4000 to $5000 every 13 years or 2.25 cents per mile. Realistically not many keep their cars 13 years much less 26 years.

[Doug Garson]

I was just thinking something similar. How many gallons of gasoline does it take to run the generate to recharge a Tesla one time?

Then there are the losses to consider. Fuel is consumed to make heat (loss) to make steam (loss) to turn a turbine (loss) to make electricity that travels over power lines (loss) through transformers (loss, though they are usually 99+% efficient) to the charging station converted into the power to charge the car (loss). Or you could put the fuel straight into your car (one loss).

The answer is zero. Why would you charge the battery of a Tesla from a gas powered generator? That's like asking how many solar panels or wind turbines does it take to fill up the gas tank on an ICE vehicle?

[Mike Henderson]

According to Tesla, their Model 3 battery has a lifespan of 300,000 to 500,000 miles. A replacement Tesla battery is $3000 to $7000 so take the average cost divided by the average life span and you get $0.0125 or 1.25 cents per mile or if you drive 15,000 miles per year once every 26.6 years or less than $200/ year. By comparison the average lifespan of an internal combustion engine is about 200,000 miles and the replacement cost is $4000 to $5000 every 13 years or 2.25 cents per mile. Realistically not many keep their cars 13 years much less 26 years.

What will probably drive the scraping of electric vehicles is the electronics. That is, advances will be made in what the electronics can do, probably eventually no-hands driving, and the electronics in the older cars will not support those new features. I would not be surprised to eventually see EVs that go from cradle to grave with the original battery.

Mike

[Doug Garson]

What will probably drive the scraping of electric vehicles is the electronics. That is, advances will be made in what the electronics can do, probably eventually no-hands driving, and the electronics in the older cars will not support those new features. I would not be surprised to eventually see EVs that go from cradle to grave with the original battery.

Mike
Kinda like cell phones, my 15 year old cell phone probably still works almost as well as it did when it was new but my "new" 5 year old cell phone does so much more that I'm not interested in using the "old" phone. There's a lot of talk these days about how things aren't built to last, there's some truth to that but I suspect part of what drives that is that the new products outperform the products they replace. As Daimler said in an earlier post of mine, there will be more advances in cars in the next ten years than the last one hundred years. Why would you design a product to last 20 years if it will be obsolete in 5 years? Better to design it to last 5 years and be recyclable when it's obsolete.

[Bill Dufour]

I have to wonder if in 15 years they will have replacement batteries that fit or will it be like cordless tools that can no longer buy a battery for even if the tool is fine. AFAIK each makers battery is unique and do not even interchange between models.
Bil lD

[Doug Garson]

I have to wonder if in 15 years they will have replacement batteries that fit or will it be like cordless tools that can no longer buy a battery for even if the tool is fine. AFAIK each makers battery is unique and do not even interchange between models.
Bil lD
Good point, certainly for power tools, you could have a standard interface between the tool and the battery just like standard batteries for flashlights (AA. AAA. etc.) Then your Dewalt drill could use a Dewalt battery or a Duracell battery or Bosch battery. I think it is more difficult for electric cars as the battery is integrated into the vehicle as part of the structure and the battery pack contains battery management circuits which integrate with the vehicle's computer. Certainly if cars could be designed with standard format batteries that could be exchanged like flashlight batteries it might be a solution to the charging time issue. Wonder if that approach has been considered by car designers?

[Jim Matthews]

I question the ownership premise for vehicles as a longterm strategy for car makers.

Volvo is already testing a "pay as you go" model.

Much as data carriers bundle a phone in with plans, I wonder if subscription services are what car makers (such as Tesla) have in mind.

Certainly major cities would benefit from a fleet of cars that could be "called to order" as needed. In a city like Boston, I see this as an answer to outrageous parking expenses and daily gridlock.

Personal car ownership is expensive, why buy for something you only use a few hours each day?


https://www.volvocars.com/us/care-by-volvo/

https://www.easyelectriccars.com/robotaxi/

[Doug Garson]

I question the ownership premise for vehicles as a longterm strategy for car makers.

Volvo is already testing a "pay as you go" model.

Much as data carriers bundle a phone in with plans, I wonder if subscription services are what car makers (such as Tesla) have in mind.

Certainly major cities would benefit from a fleet of cars that could be "called to order" as needed. In a city like Boston, I see this as an answer to outrageous parking expenses and daily gridlock.

Personal car ownership is expensive, why buy for something you only use a few hours each day?


https://www.volvocars.com/us/care-by-volvo/

https://www.easyelectriccars.com/robotaxi/
Interesting idea, biggest drawback I see is while most people may only use the car for a few hours a day, say commute to and from work, the time they need the car is the same time everyone else does. It would work for those that only occasionally need a car say to go shopping once a week or for a vacation trip a few times a year, primarily city dwellers who use public transit, walk or cycle to work or work from home. I think that market is currently using car share services like MODO or EVO. Course if the idea takes off, there will be fewer cars needed, good for the environment, not so much for car manufacturers.

[Anthony Whitesell]

Why? Because you need to get as close to apples to apples as possible to compare the GHG emissions. The first response starts with the grid to the house, which I agree is 5-8% loss. But there is no consideration for the loss of the charger, nor the loss from the fuel-to-steam, steam-to-motion, and motion-to-electricity conversions.

We all know the gallons per mile for an average 4 cylinder automobile. What is the gallons per mile for a Tesla? The shortest route would be gas-generator-charger-battery-car. So the question is posed. How many gallons of gasoline does it take to run the generate to recharge a Tesla one time? ...and I do agree or admit that a personal generator is probably the most inefficient way to get from gasoline to electricity, on the other hand it could be considered worst case.

[Doug Garson]

Why? Because you need to get as close to apples to apples as possible to compare the GHG emissions. The first response starts with the grid to the house, which I agree is 5-8% loss. But there is no consideration for the loss of the charger, nor the loss from the fuel-to-steam, steam-to-motion, and motion-to-electricity conversions.

We all know the gallons per mile for an average 4 cylinder automobile. What is the gallons per mile for a Tesla? The shortest route would be gas-generator-charger-battery-car. So the question is posed. How many gallons of gasoline does it take to run the generate to recharge a Tesla one time? ...and I do agree or admit that a personal generator is probably the most inefficient way to get from gasoline to electricity, on the other hand it could be considered worst case.
If the goal is to fight climate change by reducing GRG emissions why would you start with gasoline to charge a zero carbon emission vehicle? To my knowledge there isn't a utility power plant in North America (probably the world) using gasoline to produce electricity, a few small plants use Diesel. Charging a Tesla using a gas powered generator would be a rare last resort way to do it, charging from the grid would be more common. The only apples to apples comparison that would make sense is what is the lifetime carbon footprint of a Tesla vs an ICE vehicle over say ten years? The answer would be very location driven as different locations have different % of electricity generated by non GHG sources, in Canada over 80% of electricity is produced by non GHG emitting sources, in the US it is only about 10%, in both countries it is increasing. But in both locations I would expect the Tesla would have the lower lifetime carbon footprint.

[Kev Williams]

Don't know how many of you have seen this yet, but since we're talking electric vehicles,
read this these specs below, then watch the video... All I'm gonna say :D


What is the most powerful semi truck engine?
Detroit™ DD16
The Detroit™ DD16 truck engine is the biggest, toughest, most powerful engine Detroit has ever produced. With a wide, flat torque curve, and delivering up to 2050 lb/ft and 600 HP, it tackles your hardest jobs while performing with the fuel efficiency and reliability you've come to count on from Detroit


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjMhZKmHKGk

[Jim Becker]

Ooooh...Crabwalk.... :) :D

[Jim Matthews]

Ooooh...Crabwalk.... :) :D

It will be used to parallel park, and rarely otherwise.

There's an aftermarket skidpad for your helicopter in the works.

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/10/21/2022-gmc-hummer-ev-dimensions-off-road-specs/

[Lee DeRaud]

Ooooh...Crabwalk.... :) :DPfft...they're amateurs compared to this:
https://worldwarwings.com/b-52-makes-high-crosswind-landing-but-not-like-youd-expect/
That system dates back to the early '50s.

[Jim Matthews]

Pfft...they're amateurs compared to this:
https://worldwarwings.com/b-52-makes-high-crosswind-landing-but-not-like-youd-expect/
That system dates back to the early '50s.

What's the stall speed if you still need to deploy a drogue?

*yikes*

[Bill Dufour]

Ooooh...Crabwalk.... :) :D


The US army gave up on four wheel steering over 100 years ago. It was possible to parallel park next to a building a and then not be able to move until the front end was dragged away. I do like the look of fire department trucks with a someone in the back steering.
Bill D.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffery_Quad

[Bill Dufour]

The Electric hummer would be interesting in war. the other side will not hear it coming from a mile away.
Bill D