Covid 19: The risks, know them, avoid them

[Paul F Franklin]

My sis sent me this article. It's one of the best I've read in terms of explaining the mechanisms of the spread of the virus, with explanation and analysis of risk levels associated with different types of exposure and different durations of exposure. I found the examples of actual cases that were analyzed based on contact tracing to be particularly interesting.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

[David L Morse]

Good article Paul. Thank you for posting that. The reference links in it are also useful.

[Mark Rainey]

Paul, an excellent article. I will reread and share with others.

[Todd Trebuna]

It's very good. I really appreciate that it's from an actual Doctor.

[Lisa Starr]

Thank you! I really enjoyed the info and the fact it is from someone with a medical background. I'll be sharing this.

[Michael Weber]

Thanks, that is a terrific article.

[Robert Engel]

Locking down is proving to be likely worse than the virus. Its well documented that unemployment and financial crisis is associated with increases in suicides, depression, drug abuse, domestic violence, crime and homelessness. Not to mention material losses due to bankruptcies, foreclosures and loan defaults.

What is the alternative? The decision to open is a hard one, but a necessary one. I know no governor wants to think he's caused a death, its a matter of choosing between two very bad scenarios. The scenario in GA is not a nearly as grim as predicted.

Science is not running the show. Dr. Fauci of all people should know it is a losing battle to try and defeat this virus by quarantining people. We already know 60% of infections occur in people in lockdown!

Here is some science: COVID is not a high mortality virus. There is no reason for mass hysteria and panic. We know the virus is highly contagious, but is rapidly weakened in the environment. Therefore, close personal contact is the biggest risk factor.

We will never know how many people have been infected until more antibody studies are done, but the evidence so far is indicating a massive underestimation. One study by Stanford underestimated # infected and recovered by 50-80 TIMES! This drives the mortality rate even lower.

We changed the lock down to prevent a death surge into preventing infection. You hear it said we will "conquer" the virus by locking down, but in reality this is impossible. The natural way an epidemic ends is by burning itself out as more become immune or the virus weakens naturally or a vaccine is developed. Either way, the population becomes stronger immunologically (herd immunity)

The brutal fact is if we cannot wait for a vaccine. If we don't let people go and let this virus take its course, society will be dealing with something much worse than this virus.

We know who is most vulnerable and how to protect them.

I'm afraid we have take a course of action that is a cosmic mistake.

[Edwin Santos]

Thanks for sharing, that is a very good article. It's difficult to keep a lot of this straight given the amount of misinformation and changing information. A concise article with good references is helpful.

[Jim Koepke]

Locking down is proving to be likely worse than the virus.

Especially for those in nursing homes, cruise ships and prisons.

Robert, do you have credible links to support your statements?

Here is something from a news article posted yesterday:


One sick singer attended choir practice, infecting 52 others, two of whom died. A study released by the C.D.C. shows that self-isolation and tracing efforts helped contain the outbreak.

Search > choir practice covid < for multiple sources to the information.

There appears to be a clear course for opening up. California and Oregon are working on reopening.

The main problem with getting things back up and running is being able to test and track.

For some reason we have been woefully behind in developing our testing abilities.

jtk

[Jim Koepke]

Thanks for sharing this Paul. Very sobering during a time in need of clear thought.

jtk

[eugene thomas]

Have 2 active cases in my whole county. Better keep use locked down till congress can spend few more trillion.

[Kev Williams]

Here is some science: COVID is not a high mortality virus.

Today's numbers:
confirmed cases US, 1,410,000 - deaths, 83,807
cases to death ratio: 16.82 to 1

confirmed case worldwide: 4,310,000 - deaths, 294,000
cases to death ratio: 14.65 to 1

I mentioned this the other day: 1 have 16 grandkids. If all of them contract the virus, these stats means we'll likely be burying one of them.

Averaging the US and worldwide flu numbers I dug up recently, flu cases to death ratio is 1555 to 1...
--Versus 16 to 1 for Covid-19; NOT a high-mortality virus? Sorry, I beg to differ.

[Jim Koepke]

Have 2 active cases in my whole county. Better keep use locked down till congress can spend few more trillion.

If your county is reopened while neighboring counties are still locked down, do you suppose the folks from the next county or two over will stay home instead of coming to the restaurants and bars in your county?

Do people in your county commute into other counties for work?

Our biggest problem is in todays world it is common for people to work many miles from their home. An automobile makes it easy for me to take the wife out to dinner 5, 10 or even 100 miles from home.

My state was one of the early 'hot spots' in the northwestern area of the state. My county is relatively low at 66 confirmed cases. To the west there are even less cases. My county is also on a state border.

As long as we all know the risks and do not take them we will come out of this.

jtk

[Lee DeRaud]

As long as we all know the risks and do not take them...I'm trying not to get too cynical about the current situation, but that's pretty much the perfect example of a zero-probability event.

[Jerome Stanek]

Back in 68 Woodstock went on even though there was a pandemic going on people just cared on.

[Edwin Santos]

Back in 68 Woodstock went on even though there was a pandemic going on people just cared on.

Misleading, according to this Reuters article. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-woodstock-pandemic-1968/true-claim-woodstock-took-place-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic-idUSKBN22J2MJ

[Lee DeRaud]

Misleading, according to this Reuters article. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-woodstock-pandemic-1968/true-claim-woodstock-took-place-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic-idUSKBN22J2MJOne interesting thing to note about the 1968 pandemic is that there were 100K* US deaths over an 18-month period, with essentially zero meaningful mitigation efforts. We're currently at 84K deaths in less than 18 weeks despite everything being done to slow/reduce the total.

(* I came very close to typing 'only 100K'...pretty soon that may be an appropriate way to describe it in relative terms. It also wasn't clear whether that number was in addition to the "normal" number of flu deaths or total.)

[Rod Sheridan]

Amazing isn't it when you're thinking "only 100,000 deaths".

The company I work for is in no hurry to get people back at work. We've set up a committee to evaluate how, and who to bring back, and in what order.

Senior management isn't interested in losing people...........Regards, Rod.

[Art Mann]

It is completely unreasonable to compare known deaths with known cases. The reason is we have not done widespread antibody testing and something like 50% of those who got don't even know it. In studies where all people in a given area were tested for antibodies as an experiment, the ratio was about 50 to 1 previously unknown versus known infections. On the other hand, the policy in many hospitals is to call the cause of death Covid-19, even though the person may have the disease but died from some other cause. The most believable mortality that I have heard reported is more like 0.1 - 0.3%.

If all 16 of your grandchildren contracted Covid-19, the chances of any of them dying are vanishingly small because young, healthy people don't die from it. It is only old people with other contributing factors like me who die. I have read that 50% of the fatalities so far occurred in nursing homes or similar facilities. It is noteworthy that these people are among the most protected of all populations.


Today's numbers:
confirmed cases US, 1,410,000 - deaths, 83,807
cases to death ratio: 16.82 to 1

confirmed case worldwide: 4,310,000 - deaths, 294,000
cases to death ratio: 14.65 to 1

I mentioned this the other day: 1 have 16 grandkids. If all of them contract the virus, these stats means we'll likely be burying one of them.

Averaging the US and worldwide flu numbers I dug up recently, flu cases to death ratio is 1555 to 1...
--Versus 16 to 1 for Covid-19; NOT a high-mortality virus? Sorry, I beg to differ.

[Kev Williams]

Just running the published numbers. I agree the actual cases are higher, but what about the 'actual deaths are probably 50-60% higher' mentions in the news as of late? Factor that against 'those who didn't know they had it', and what's the result? Who knows! But I'm willing to bet that while it'll significantly raise the 16:1 ratio, it'll still be a sight worse than .1 to .3%. But even a .3% rate is still 1 in 333. Does that sound 'manageable'? --A question to anyone who's still reading: If someone asked you stand in a circle formed of 333 people while a blindfolded person standing in the middle of the circle was going to randomly shoot one of you, would you?

[Art Mann]

The undeniable fact is deaths from Covid-19 are not random as you describe. This disease almost never kills or seriously injures healthy people. It gets to old people with other existing conditions - like me for example. We need to find a way to protect such people and let the rest of society go about their business as usual. Nobody seems to be talking about the tragedy of allowing the economy of an entire country revert to what it was during the great depression but that is what is happening as we talk about this. The amount of human misery experienced by that outcome is worse than a death rate of 1% of old warn out people like me. The results of the epidemic are easy to see. The results of the destruction of the economy are not (yet).