I hope this data is wrong

[John K Jordan]

A chart in a Bloomberg article today caught my eye. It shows the rate of coronavirus spread in various countries counting from the date of the first 100 cases. I cannot verify the data or even their source quickly. I can't remember, when did we hit 100,000 cases, was it on Friday 3/27?

I've been watching the curve from other sources but this one is easier to follow.

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I didn't digitize or even measure the plot to get numbers. However, I drew a quick line for a simple projection for the USA based on the slope of the curve over the last few days. Note the scale on the right is logarithmic and increases 10x for each division. Note the scale on the bottom is every six days.

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IF this data source is correct and my simple projection is fairly close,
then,
IF the rate of infection continues along that line the number of cases will hit 1 million in less than 12 days from 100 cases,
and,
IF the slope stays the same, we will have 10 million cases in less than 12 days later.
And this is likely to go on for months?

For today's number from Wordometers.info the USA death rate is about 1.7% of infections. You do the math.

Note that the curves for some European countries have similar slopes for now. The slope for Italy is decreasing a bit.

I might go hide under my bed. Call me if the data changes. This rate MUST slow.

JKJ

[Mark Hennebury]

Scary News and getting worse every day.

[Anuj Prateek]

Data is not wrong. I have been following various sources including the mentioned website. They all have similar data.

Simple extrapolation assumes no change in conditions and endless supply of population.

Even in worst case curve has to flatten when everyone is infected. If no measures are in place, we would see exponential increase before curve is flattened.

With isolation, we have lower rate of increase of infection. Ideally, we will flatten the curve before everyone is infected or better majority is not infected. Next, we want to keep the number low enough that our medical system is not overwhelmed.

With all the measures is place and hopefully more to come, we should see flattening in 3-4 weeks. Goes without saying that failure on part of people and government will prolong the period. We have to remember that growth rate is exponential, and any delay means huge impact.

Overall, I personally believe, better numbers are few weeks away and not months.

[David Bassett]

The slope of that curve is what the social distancing and the shelter in place are supposed to affect. We were first, or close, in the US here in the 6 SF Bay Area counties and getting close to two weeks. Since COVID-19 has an incubation period of 7-14 days, we should start to see our curve roll off soon if the effort is working. We may be too small to be statistically significant, but California as a whole is less than a week behind us, with most states having joined in as they started to see cases increase. It's going to be an interesting month in the US. Sadly your curve is what I've seen from experts and under your bed isn't the worst place right now.

(PS- sorry my numbers are fuzzy. Cabin fever has made this a blur and I'm too lazy to look up the exact dates.)

[Matt Day]

Problem is that this information is in front of the people following the guidelines of social distancing. The people not following the guidelines either aren’t informed or don’t care.

[John K Jordan]

Problem is that this information is in front of the people following the guidelines of social distancing. The people not following the guidelines either aren’t informed or don’t care.

Yes, Andy, et. al., my point was if nothing else changes, this could describe one possible scenario. I very much hope that with increased education on distancing and prevention, massive testing direct isolation, advances in treatment, and perhaps the quick development of effective inoculation the curve will change for the better, especially if the authorities are behind it. But it could get even worse quickly if people don't change their behavior.

Around here, many people don't seem to be concerned that another person could possibly be an infected carrier with no symptoms. Just this weekend I went out to get diesel fuel for the tractor (the gas stations were almost deserted!) and at one house I saw at least 8 cars in one driveway/yard, all the people perhaps jammed together inside the small house celebrating Aunt Maude's birthday or something. I see young people hanging out in groups, multiple parents taking kids to a small park. Our county has only 6 reported cases, but how many are unreported or asymptomatic and interacting with the community?

We made a grocery run today at the "senior's hour" and I was pleased to see more people wearing gloves and masks and everyone politely waiting for others to pass to keep a distance.

And last night I made another dozen small bottles of hand sanitizer to pass out. At first when I asked people if they needed some most said no; now more people are saying yes.

JKJ

[Jim Becker]

Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves. Why? In normal medical situations, they are one-time use and get discarded between tasks which prevents the spread of nefarious things. If we, the public, wear nitrile or other similar gloves while out and about, we may be "protecting" ourselves slightly, but we're also spreading the nasties around as we go about our business and touch things. Frequent hand washing with soap and using sanitizer when we must is actually a better collective solution to help reduce the spread of disease. Masks, on the other hand, may very well do more to help reduce the spread than originally anticipated and that includes non-N95/non-commercial solutions. Why? It helps reduce transmission from folks who are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic from ejecting live virus directly into the air around them. It's not perfect, but certainly can help.

And I agree, John, that there are still way too many people who "don't get it" around the seriousness of the situation and how it can be unknowingly spread by those who have it with no symptoms or those who have contracted it but have not begun to have symptoms. Aunt Maude's birthday could have been just as much fun via Zoom or FaceTime.

[Mark Hennebury]

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/ag5D0z6_460sv.mp4

[Edwin Santos]

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/ag5D0z6_460sv.mp4

That is an amazing animation!
Makes you wonder how our US leaders can be putting so much energy into congratulating themselves. Maybe they think the contest is to have the most number of cases?

The graphic would say we all have something to learn from S. Korea.

[Anuj Prateek]

Purely from internet reading:

Gloves made of cotton or other absorbing material maybe help though. It seems it reduces the spread and eventually virus disintegrates.

All said, sticking with hand wash and sanitizers is preferred and better.

[Stephen Tashiro]

For today's number from Wordometers.info the USA death rate is about 1.7% of infections.J

Scary, but the relevant information is how much deaths-by-cornoa-virus adds to the death rate that would be occurring without the virus. In a given week, some patients that have corona virus and die would have died from other causes if they didn't have the virus.

[Ole Anderson]

An informal poll taken yesterday by folks that frequent the Silver Lake Sand Dune FB group. 842 responded. 58% still out working, 24% can't work, 15% were working from home with a few scattered other responses.

As others have said, image the toll if C-19 were as deadly as Ebola with a death rate of 50%, rather than 2%. And don't forget AIDS/HIV which caused 32 million deaths to date and still kills 700,000 per year. https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/

[Mark Bolton]

Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves.

The reason to be carefull about gloves other than the simple lack of protocol with regards to the users is coming to fruition even in our "last-in" state. The gloves are being tossed down on the pavement in a rationality to rid ones self of the the contamination rather than walking them to a trash can.

These are the times when one can have a morbidly delusional hope that the wasters and door knob lickers of the planet are the ones that are eliminated but unfortunately they will most definitely come out the other side while the rule followers will die.

[Jon Grider]

That is an amazing animation!
Makes you wonder how our US leaders can be putting so much energy into congratulating themselves. Maybe they think the contest is to have the most number of cases?

The graphic would say we all have something to learn from S. Korea.

It seems to me that if self directed superlatives were to be removed, some of those info meetings would be really short.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

When comparing numbers remember we are in the earliest stages of this virus and resultant pandemic. It's a gross misstatement IMO, to compare the number of deaths caused by other viruses knowing that the others are pretty much history or at least, pretty well contained while this virus is just starting.

It's the asymptomatic carriers I worry about most. In less than 2 weeks time, my wife were in the following airports in this order PHX, LAX, Long Beach, PHX, PHX, FAT, FAT, LAX, SLC, LWS. I purposely self quarantined myself when I got home as I didn't want to be that silent carrier of this.

We live in a county, Nez Perce County, ID, with a reported population IIRC of 40,369. We have 5 reported cases and yet 3 deaths of NPC residents so far, 2 of which occurred across the Snake River at the hospital in Clarkston, WA and one in Lewiston. This merely shows that even living in a sparsely populated area is no guarantee of a safe community.

[Mark Blatter]

That is an amazing animation!
Makes you wonder how our US leaders can be putting so much energy into congratulating themselves. Maybe they think the contest is to have the most number of cases?

The graphic would say we all have something to learn from S. Korea.

Yes, what we can and should have learned from South Korea was test, test, test and keep on testing. That is what controlled it is having accurate data and being able to jump on cases immediately.

[John K Jordan]

Scary, but the relevant information is how much deaths-by-cornoa-virus adds to the death rate that would be occurring without the virus. In a given week, some patients that have corona virus and die would have died from other causes if they didn't have the virus.

Good point. From the CDC mortality numbers for 2018 it looks like "normal" deaths from all causes except murder are about 0.86% of the population. This includes suicide and accidents so the relevant percentage would be a little smaller. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

But I since realized the simple percentage of deaths per cases is almost certainly misleading since most of the the total cases are currently active and the percentage of those who will not recover is not yet known. As of today I see about 148000 active cases in the USA. Of those cases resolved to date, about 2,900 have died and 5,200 have recovered. THAT simple but huge ratio would be terrifying except that it doesn't take into consideration the length of time between testing positive and the resolution, and that might vary widely due to age, etc. I think to know the actual percentage of death/cases would require either waiting until this is all over or study the daily data and try to unfold the number of cases outside the resolution window, while considering the "normal" factors. Sounds complicated. I personally know nothing about this but I suspect an epidemiologist could model an ongoing epidemic.

JKJ

[John K Jordan]

Ah, gloves....let's be careful about using gloves. Why? In normal medical situations, they are one-time use and get discarded between tasks which prevents the spread of nefarious things. If we, the public, wear nitrile or other similar gloves while out and about, we may be "protecting" ourselves slightly, but we're also spreading the nasties around as we go about our business and touch things. ...

I guess I don't see much difference between using or not using gloves as related to spreading nasties while out and about and touching things.

I think carrying hand sanitizer and using it repeatedly either on the skin OR on the gloves during the grocery store circuit should help equally. Gloves may give a slight edge as they could keep the nasties from hiding under the fingernails. One thing I found when wearing gloves and a mask is both reminded me not to touch my face. I do like stripping the gloves off and discarding them inside-out after loading the groceries in the car.

I raided my shop plus farm stash when all this started and have about 500 disposable gloves on hand, plenty to share with family, friends, and neighbors. (We go through a lot of gloves working with animals!) I asked my Dr if he wanted some but he said they had plenty.

BTW, these are the bottles I buy in quantity for shop and now, hand sanitizer - 4 oz is a good size for pocket and vehicle. Before I started making hand sanitizer I'd pump commercial sanitizer into these from a large container.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B074XM547S
(I like the kind with a "press disk" top better since the cap can't be lost, but I couldn't find any I liked in a 4 oz size.)

JKJ

[andrew whicker]

I think the comparisons are bad because.... who cares? If X number of people die a year in car accidents and that number is way greater than those that die due to Covid 19... then so what?

You aren't removing car crashes and replacing them with a lower death rate, you're adding to them. People that were not going to die this year are going to die. There are going to be people that will not be resuscitated because the hospital is out of equipment. There will be triage.

It's an argument used to protect the economy. Protecting the economy is important and I'm glad I'm not in the captain's chair deciding how to deal with this. People die due to poor financial well being as well. The USA doesn't have a very good safety net for the poor. I don't know the answer, but what I do know is that it is a deflection to compare this virus to other 'things'.

[Edwin Santos]

Scary, but the relevant information is how much deaths-by-cornoa-virus adds to the death rate that would be occurring without the virus. In a given week, some patients that have corona virus and die would have died from other causes if they didn't have the virus.

I can't parse this logic at all. Are you saying in order to be relevant, you would like to see removed from the total anyone who, if not for Coronavirus, would have died from something else on the same day or in the same week?
How could such a thing be known?

Just looking at the images coming out of Italy as a location that is a few weeks ahead of us, I can't imagine anyone making a case that a meaningful number of the thousands dying would be dying anyway but Coronavirus just beat the other cause to the punch.
Edwin

[Jim Becker]

I think carrying hand sanitizer and using it repeatedly either on the skin OR on the gloves during the grocery store circuit should help equally.
Therein lies the rub...literally. :) Too many folks wear the gloves and don't sanitize between uses or even locations they visit...

Sanitizer...here's the way to buy at this point...distillery produced. $6.99 for a bottle. The reason there are two in this photo taken by my good friend is that he, um...failed to listen to me about the size being offered....and when he ordered his food market order for curb-side pickup, he asked them to add two bottles of sanitizer, thinking they were the small Purell portable size. :D :D :D I think he's covered for this pandemic and the next at least. LOL

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[Ken Fitzgerald]

Therein lies the rub...literally. :) Too many folks wear the gloves and don't sanitize between uses or even locations they visit...

Sanitizer...here's the way to buy at this point...distillery produced. $6.99 for a bottle. The reason there are two in this photo taken by my good friend is that he, um...failed to listen to me about the size being offered....and when he ordered his food market order for curb-side pickup, he asked them to add two bottles of sanitizer, thinking they were the small Purell portable size. :D :D :D I think he's covered for this pandemic and the next at least. LOL

429177

Two distilleries close to us, one in Spokane and one in Boise have joined the crusade to produce hand sanitizer so we may be able to buy those larger bottles locally manufactured.

[John K Jordan]

Two distilleries close to us, one in Spokane and one in Boise have joined the crusade to produce hand sanitizer so we may be able to buy those larger bottles locally manufactured.

I haven't found any around here yet. You'd think in Tennessee there should be some! Whenever we travel overseas and people find out where we live they always say "Jack Daniels!"
Besides that, I count 14 other distilleries. Maybe they will sell direct.

JKJ

[Jim Becker]

Some are doing direct. Chef Robert Irvine apparently is an owner of a distillery in Montgomery County PA somewhere. They are producing it, but buyers have to bring their own containers for curbside pickup.

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

I have started keeping track of figures on the Johns Hopkins University "Corona resource site Called the Corona Clock by many on line. Yes we passed 100,000 cases last friday and as of 5:30 today there were 159,184 cases and 2945 deaths for a 24 hour increase of 22,304 cases and 536 deaths. But instead of doubling and tripling as it had been doing, the numbers are still climbing but mo longer at an exponential rate. 22,304 in the past 24 hours is worse than the 18,000 saturday to Sunday and worse than the 17,000 friday to saturday. It does show a trend of slightly slowing the avalanche. Whether an anomaly or the start of a true leveling we won't know for a week. In the mean time deaths will climb at a terrible rate. From Saturday to Sunday there were 453 deaths. Sunday to Monday 536 deaths. At the current rate, by the end of the week we will be looking at approximately 8,000 dead.

I had to take my daughter to the doctor this morning. Traffic was still heavy despite the shut downs and stay at home advice. I passed small strip centers where all the businesses were closed but there were people out going everywhere else.

I understand that in Austria starting Wednesday, all customers in stores will be required to wear masks, so that those who have the disease without knowing will not be as likely to spread it.

I have not been to a store since last thursday, but I saw couples hauling 3 or 4 kids with them. Are they totally stupid. One parent should be shopping and the rest of the family should be home.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

I haven't found any around here yet. You'd think in Tennessee there should be some! Whenever we travel overseas and people find out where we live they always say "Jack Daniels!"
Besides that, I count 14 other distilleries. Maybe they will sell direct.

JKJ

John,

The one in south Idaho is using potato vodka to make it according to the article I read. Go figure!:eek::D

[Ole Anderson]

I raided my shop plus farm stash when all this started and have about 500 disposable gloves on hand, plenty to share with family, friends, and neighbors. (We go through a lot of gloves working with animals!)
JKJ

Yea, but how many of those farm gloves go up to the armpit??? Good luck having someone take those!

[Stephen Tashiro]

I can't parse this logic at all. Are you saying in order to be relevant, you would like to see removed from the total anyone who, if not for Coronavirus, would have died from something else on the same day or in the same week?
How could such a thing be known?


It could be estimated from the death rates of previous years.

To take an extreme hypothetical example, suppose you gave a group of elderly people red hats and found out that 1% of them died within a year. This wouldn't be evidence for the lethality of red hats unless similar groups of elderly people who didn't have red hats had a lower death rate than 1%.

The technical term for the additional deaths caused by a new disease or extraordinary event is "excess mortality".

[Greg Funk]

It could be estimated from the death rates of previous years.

To take an extreme hypothetical example, suppose you gave a group of elderly people red hats and found out that 1% of them died within a year. This wouldn't be evidence for the lethality of red hats unless similar groups of elderly people who didn't have red hats had a lower death rate than 1%.

The technical term for the additional deaths caused by a new disease or extraordinary event is "excess mortality".Not really clear what your point is. That there might be a couple people in NY who would have died anyway? Old people are going to die soon so we shouldn’t care? We’re all going to die sooner or later so this Coronavirus is no big deal and we should just carry on as normal?

[roger wiegand]

Gloves, like face masks, are only marginal as primary protection the way most people use them; they do, however, provide effective reminders not to touch your face, a very effective strategy.

One should simply assume that all surfaces are contaminated and act accordingly. I don't think there's any data that suggests that gloved hands are more or less likely to spread viruses than bare hands. I wore gloves for most of my career in the lab, but it was usually to protect the experiment from me.

[Patrick Walsh]

I’m with Fauci..

Even before this I have always been so disappointed we as humans put so much value in the almighty dollar vrs what’s really of value in this world.

A time like this I feel it’s best for us to all do our best. I know it may be only my opinion and others with have contrary.

But our best to me seems to be “stay home at all cost” the cards are gonna land at this point where they land for us all regarding $$$ it’s not gonna not stink bad for any of us. Some worse than others, some less but we are all gonna suffer bad.

But if we die or unknowingly or knowingly end up being the cause of someone else dying well then what all that financial self preservation gonna worth.

About as much as I feel it was worth prior but just with a life and death consequence..

I’m all for science, all for facts but people make mistakes and sometimes overcompensation is only logical. I’d say this is one of those times.

Crap the attention some of us pay to our dam joinery far exceeds that of the attention most pay to not only their health but the health and welfare of others.

If you wanna argue that financial welfare is that important go ahead your not gonna crack this nut ;)

[John K Jordan]

Yea, but how many of those farm gloves go up to the armpit??? Good luck having someone take those!

Unlike doing an procedure like an pregnancy untrasound on a horse which requires full arm insertion into the posterior orifice, extracting fecal samples from llamas is be done with normal nitrile gloves. And a friend does that for me - all I have to do is supply the gloves, lubricant, plastic sample bags, and a small cooler and ice pack to ship the samples to the testing lab.

JKJ

[Edwin Santos]

Unlike doing an procedure like an pregnancy untrasound on a horse which requires full arm insertion into the posterior orifice, extracting fecal samples from llamas is be done with normal nitrile gloves. And a friend does that for me - all I have to do is supply the gloves, lubricant, plastic sample bags, and a small cooler and ice pack to ship the samples to the testing lab.

JKJ

That's a good friend you have there.

[Mike Henderson]

I just hope that when all this is over, people can say "See, I told you it wasn't going to be so bad."

That's better than "It was worse than what the experts said."

Mike

[Thomas L Carpenter]

Couple of things I noticed re the data above. Several countries have figured out how to flatten the curve and whenever the news shows pictures of the people in those countries, the vast majority seem to be wearing masks. I know logically that masking is not the be all end all but the anecdotal evidence seems to support their use.

[David Bassett]

... anecdotal evidence seems to support their use.

Perhaps. But, even if it's possible, it can't be responsible to do so while first line medical responders are still getting sick and dying because they don't have those basic supplies.

[Thomas L Carpenter]

Totally agree, David. If the CDC does recommend masks, it's going to get messy.

[David Bassett]

Totally agree, David. If the CDC does recommend masks, it's going to get messy.

BTW I heard an interview with a specialist trying to explain the different recommendations. It seems undisputed wearing a mask helps keep you from spreading the virus, then it gets fuzzy. His suspicion was cultural differences. Wearing a mask affects your behavior, (putting it on and off,) and seems to increase your personal risk slightly. CDC wants to minimize infections total and culturally we are programmed to take care of ourselves and families first. The Asian countries want to avoid virus transmission from asymptomatic & pre-symptomatic victims and functions in a culture that values community good over personal benefit. His take: very close call, with cultural differences tipping the scale. (He didn't address practical differences, here for now the question seems moot anyway.)

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

Austria starting tomorrow, requires all shoppers to wear masks. And they have a fairly low rate already.

[Ole Anderson]

This is the one time I am going to say delete if not allowed. Massive testing just doesn't seem to be in the cards for the US even though others have found it a necessity. I don't get it. Nobody is even talking about it. Except maybe the guest on Glenn Beck. Dr. Epstein. https://www.facebook.com/GlennBeck/videos/504466607129846/

[Edwin Santos]

Today Dr. Fauci was interviewed and basically said once we have enough masks for the healthcare professionals, we may have to re-visit the benefits of having the rest of us use them. As you can imagine, there is now a ton of masks in the production pipeline.

The head of China's CDC says the US has it all wrong not wearing masks. Whatever anyone might think about China, it certainly now appears that they managed the crisis very well, as did S. Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.

A new Japanese study is putting forth a thesis that Covid-19 can spread through what are called micro-droplets. Larger droplets are emitted when people cough or sneeze. The larger droplets hang in the air for about 2-3 minutes before falling to the ground. Micro droplets can be released even through normal conversation and can hang in the air for hours. If this thesis is correct, then it means the best defense is isolation and/or wearing a mask to keep the virus out of the air in the first place.

And even if this is not correct, I have not heard that a mask will make you any worse off, so even a zero downside argument supports wearing one (again, once healthcare workers have an adequate supply).

[Mark Bolton]

Except maybe the guest on Glenn Beck. Dr. Epstein. https://www.facebook.com/GlennBeck/videos/504466607129846/

*COUGH* If your one of the hundredth of.a percentile that hasn't realized that Glenn Beck was destined to be the next branch dividian leader or Jim Jones... I feel for you. The guy has.been exiled for very solid reasons. I'm mind blown that he still has deciples. The mere fact that everyone on his show is programmed to speak like him, with the same cadence and radio/tv speak as him... is utterly horrifying. The guy is the epitome of a megalomaniac.

[Art Mann]

It is my understanding that there aren't enough test kits to go around and they are trying to use the limited number available in the most effective way possible. That isn't just random testing of whoever wants one. I also understand that a new test method has just been released that produces results within 13 minutes, rather than days, at the location of the sample collection rather than at some remote lab. It uses instrumentation that is already widely available. That should improve the test capability significantly.


This is the one time I am going to say delete if not allowed. Massive testing just doesn't seem to be in the cards for the US even though others have found it a necessity. I don't get it. Nobody is even talking about it. Except maybe the guest on Glenn Beck. Dr. Epstein. https://www.facebook.com/GlennBeck/videos/504466607129846/

[Mel Fulks]

Mark, nutty hosts can have smart guests. And wasn't the guest a Doc ? And the story's we are hearing now are quite
different from what we heard in the beginning. One of those is how fast China acted to warn others. Seems to be "pick
from column A or B".

[Art Mann]

Glenn Beck's "expert" is a psychologist, not a medical doctor. He may be smart, even correct, but his credentials are bogus.

[Kev Williams]

To Mr. Beck's (and others) suggestion that everyone over 50 should just go to work and get sick and die if necessary to save the economy for our children, all I have to say is: --You First...

As to masks, and 'marginally' effective...

First- While a .44 magnum might be 'very effective' at getting rid of a mountain lion in my face, a 'marginally effective 6" knife WOULD BE better than nothing...
Second- all the medicians are saying that
(a) masks are more effective at keeping an infected person from spreading the virus than keeping an uninfected person from getting it, and
(b), there's are a LOT of people infected who don't know it...

So-- can someone explain to me why it's a bad idea to wear a mask, OTHER than the fact that it's preferable that a medical professional be wearing your mask than you?

Marginal protection is better than no protection, and I just found out one of my granddaughter's 10 year old-ish cousin is postive--she got it from her therapist, who didn't know SHE had it. The more masked people I see, the better IMO...

I DO advocate for using home-made masks and donating the good ones if you have 'em. Anyone with old sheets and a pair of scissors can make the whole family masks in a few minutes :)

[David Bassett]

... So-- can someone explain to me why it's a bad idea to wear a mask, OTHER than the fact that it's preferable that a medical professional be wearing your mask than you? ...

News says CDC will be reevaluating, so this may be old thinking now, or soon, but:

The expert (don't remember who, a Prof or Researcher from a local university, we have a few good ones around here) said the risk of using masks is it makes you touch your face more. You at least need to put the mask on and remove it. Without care, and probably some training, you are likely to get any virus on your hands on to your face. Get any of it, directly or with the mask rubbing around, into your eyes or nose and you're on your way to sick. They also said studies how shown most people mess with the mask and actually are touching their faces more often with one. At the time of the interview it was believed most transmission was due to large droplets the don't hang in the air, but rather are directly coughed into your face or carried there by your hands from hard surfaces (hence the hand washing.) This is why they are already recommending mask if you show any symptoms, e.g. coughing.

As their understanding grows the data may support changes, it was already a close call (see my previous post.) Of course, it doesn't matter unless there are suitable masks available. (Or materials to make them. Here fabric stores aren't "essential" and are closed.)

[Steve Schlumpf]

I have deleted a few posts that were political in nature. Everyone here knows the rules. Enough said.

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

hit the first hundred thousand cases in the US on 2-26-2020. Will hit the 200,000 mark this afternoon (4-1-2020) Will hit 300,000 on April 4 or 5, 2020. per the current rates of infection according to the Johns Hopkins "Corona Clock"

[Tim Nguyen]

I think the use of masks comes down to good habit. I see people wearing masks, but I also see people adjusting the masks several time or moving it down or up. Those common type of masks aren't design for that type of abuse. I see people driving with mask on. They should be disposed of. Touching everything with gloves and than driving with it on. Any contamination
has been transferred.
It come down to lack of training and getting use to it. It like using safety glass for me. Cheap safety glasses or dust masks are uncomfortable and I adjust them constantly. Worst it took a while to get into the habit of wearing them, but an upgrade to better fitting PPE made it easier.

[Patrick Walsh]

I don’t quite understand how these things/process are not intuitive to people.

Seems so obveous but I guess it’s not.

Talking with a family member yesterday and he told me he had to explain to his wife that wearing the gloves she wore in the store driving home in the care defeats the purpose lol. Like I just don’t get it how can someone miss that you’d have to have to well special. Well she is so but that means a huge percentage of the population lacks basic common sense. Well I guess you don’t want to be so negative and think that’s the case but I think it really might be.

But then he tells me ‘they” referring his wife and 15 year old daughter. That he had to tell them both and explain to shop as little as possible as apposed to every few days. The fact he also missed the part about his daughter going to the store ”stupid” but got the gloves thing makes one understand that people miss the most basic obvious stuff.

I use gloves to unpack my groceries but I touch nothing but the groceries and bags they came in. I get everything setup prior so I don’t have to touch a dam thing with my dirty hands but those bags. They all get stacked on one side of the counter while they each get sterilized in the sink then placed on a towel on the other side of the sink and dried. The gloves get changed like 300 times throughout this. Then “with gloves on all surfaces/doorknobs/floors get disinfected and cleaned. Then strip clothes into a hot wash and make my way right to the shower. Sterilize hands that are gonna clean the rest of my body first “obviously” all the while not touching the face till they are. And even then I wash my face last.

It’s a bit ocd but my point is it seems so obvious like how does everyone not get it. Guess the same people are out playing basketball and or ignoring the shelter I place as “don’t leave the dam house” unless it’s on fire! So really I should be able to understand that people don’t understand.




I think the use of masks comes down to good habit. I see people wearing masks, but I also see people adjusting the masks several time or moving it down or up. Those common type of masks aren't design for that type of abuse. I see people driving with mask on. They should be disposed of. Touching everything with gloves and than driving with it on. Any contamination
has been transferred.
It come down to lack of training and getting use to it. It like using safety glass for me. Cheap safety glasses or dust masks are uncomfortable and I adjust them constantly. Worst it took a while to get into the habit of wearing them, but an upgrade to better fitting PPE made it easier.

[Ole Anderson]

*COUGH* If your one of the hundredth of.a percentile that hasn't realized that Glenn Beck was destined to be the next branch dividian leader or Jim Jones... I feel for you. The guy has.been exiled for very solid reasons. I'm mind blown that he still has deciples. The mere fact that everyone on his show is programmed to speak like him, with the same cadence and radio/tv speak as him... is utterly horrifying. The guy is the epitome of a megalomaniac.

Maybe you didn't mean it that way, but that feels a whole lot more like a personal attack than a comment on the suggestion for massive testing as other countries have done. That is the stuff that will get discussions shut down. You know there is an option to delete your comments?

And now it looks like the CDC may reverse its position on masks. And it takes an n-95 to filter out the virus. Good luck finding those anytime soon.

[Mark Bolton]

but that feels a whole lot more like a personal attack

Youve got to be kidding. My oh my.

[Edwin Santos]

And now it looks like the CDC may reverse its position on masks. And it takes an n-95 to filter out the virus. Good luck finding those anytime soon.

Yes, I think we're going to reverse course on the mask advice in the US.
In hindsight, I guess we shouldn't be surprised that face masks might only help reduce the spread of a respiratory illness.

Taiwan is producing a surplus of masks, and is proposing to send them to the US and others under their foreign aid program. S. Korea may do the same.

The alarm bell has been ringing for a while, so I would hope at some point our own manufacturing chain will be able to meet or exceed our needs.

[John K Jordan]

hit the first hundred thousand cases in the US on 2-26-2020. Will hit the 200,000 mark this afternoon (4-1-2020) Will hit 300,000 on April 4 or 5, 2020. per the current rates of infection according to the Johns Hopkins "Corona Clock"

For those who haven't found it, the Johns Hopkins site is here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Click on the country name at the left then the state in that list, then the arrows at the bottom of that column for the counties. Can zoom into the map and click on the red dots for specific locations but some of the dots are tiny and hard to see. You can expand any window, for example the one for the graph in the lower right.

I see our local farmer's co-op got in a shipment of 1/2 face respirators with various cartridge filters. I see you can no longer buy them on Amazon.

JKJ

[Jim Tobias]

I have deleted a few posts that were political in nature. Everyone here knows the rules. Enough said.

Just go ahead and close it...…..unfortunately there are some that cannot resist forcing their opinion on others in a negative fashion.

[Kev Williams]

no, let's not close it this thread, just remove rule-breaking text. I for one like the mask opinions and debating, I like to see everyone's perspectives. Most of us are being nice :)

That said, here's another perspective of mine: Masks and touching. Me, I have a mustache, and there's always an errant hair causing a nose itch, so I touch my nose & face a lot during the day. Wearing a mask will make me aware that I AM about to touch my face. From my perspective, that's a good thing. I haven't begun wearing one yet, but I haven't been in public for about 10 days now. But I need to hit the grocery store for milk & eggs & bread so I WILL be wearing next time I leave. For several weeks now, when I do leave I wear my nitrile gloves, and take a small bottle of hand sanitizer with. I sani the cart, I sani the gloves after every 3 or 4 things put in the cart, before I scratch my nose ;) , before I check out, after I check out, and before I get in the van. I sani when I get home, then remove the 'gear'...

Nice thing about nitrile gloves, just a teeensy bit of sanitizer will completely cover the gloves, and takes awhile to evap so you have time to scrub good.

Before I begin wearing a home-made mask, it will be sprayed with a bleach/water solution and Lysol'd. And if I need to scratch my nose or adjust the mask, I'll sani the gloves first.

If I'm worried about anything, it's my eyes. Been thinking of making some foam 'fillers' for an old pair of glasses...

[Patrick Walsh]

Solution!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4FOepH6zw

[Nicholas Lawrence]

Well, the good news is that we are at about the 24 day mark, and instead of 10 million cases we are still under a million.

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Curt Harms]

I'm hoping for a widely available antibody test soon. People who have developed immunity should be able to go back to their jobs without endangering others. I've heard of a couple studies in California that indicate infections are MUCH more common than previously estimated so serious/life threatening infections per 1,000 people is much lower than projected. I have no idea if those studies are legitimate or representative of larger populations. We need larger samples rather than small samples with lots of SWAGs derived from those small samples.

[Robert Engel]

I'm hoping for a widely available antibody test soon. People who have developed immunity should be able to go back to their jobs without endangering others. I've heard of a couple studies in California that indicate infections are MUCH more common than previously estimated so serious/life threatening infections per 1,000 people is much lower than projected. I have no idea if those studies are legitimate or representative of larger populations. We need larger samples rather than small samples with lots of SWAGs derived from those small samples.

Exactly. IMO until a massive program for testing antibodies starts we will not know for sure about the future. I respect the experts, but truthfully all we have done so far is act on models and suppositions.

I am confident the true mortality rate will be much lower once this is determined. (This is the so called "denominator" they talk about). We already know the virus has been around CA longer than thought. Serology studies indicate 50-80X as many people had antibodies than expected. This means there are a multitude of people who have been infected and recovered (herd immunity!)

Mutation is another issue, and my be what's behind so many experts claiming antibodies may not protect you (because this is quite incorrect for most infections with the exception of some classes like HIV). Apparently many variants have already been identified by researchers in China (I don't believe much from China, but no reason not to believe this). Typically mutations results in differing levels of virulence, IOW the virus can either be weaker or stronger.

Could this be the reason why some countries seem to be hit harder than others? We will eventually find out I'm sure the studies are already underway. CA has not been hit has hard as NY and that has a lot of people wondering. The thinking is CA "beat" the virus with strict quarantine measures, while NY lagged in their response.

But what if CA got a different variant direct from Wuhan and it happens to be less virulent? 1000's of people fly back and forth from CA to China every day, perhaps they got the "Wuhan" virus and NY got a different variant from Europe?

If this is true it has huge implications on vaccine development, because the most virulent variants would have to be identified and a multivalent vaccine would have to be developed.

[roger wiegand]

Unfortunately we don't know at this point whether an antibody response is protective, what antibody titer might be required for protection, or for how long the antibody response might be protective. Also unfortunately the rapid diagnostic tests for antibodies being rolled out (many of which, in another colossal regulatory failure, don't actually work) can't really provide data on the level of antibody response, just a +/- result. You need a lab test instead to get those data.

It's hard to interpret the re-infection data given the crappy nature of a lot of the testing. Much of it is probably due to false positives, but as more and more reports publish it seems more likely that infection doesn't necessarily induce a fully protective immune response. Early data suggest that mild cases might be less likely to produce a robust immune response. Little of this has made it to the peer-reviewed published literature yet, I'm relying on published pre-prints of papers. It will be many months before we really know.

[Stephen Tashiro]

Not really clear what your point is. That there might be a couple people in NY who would have died anyway? Old people are going to die soon so we shouldn’t care? We’re all going to die sooner or later so this Coronavirus is no big deal and we should just carry on as normal?


I'm not making a moral or political point. I'm only saying that excess mortality data is the most straightforward way to evaluate the bottom line effect of coronavirus as far as number of deaths is concerned. Total deaths is a less controversial statistic than deaths-due-to-corona virus since a death may be due to several causes and causes-of-death given on death certificates may be subjective or inaccurate. Total deaths and Excess Mortality reflect all the factors positively and negatively affecting death rates. That would include effects of diseases, effects of public policy, and economic affects.

An association of European countries reports such data. The maps on their site are informative, e.g. https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ (Scroll down that page to find the map.) It would be informative to see a similar map for regions of the USA - anyone know of such a map for the USA or the Americas?

[Edwin Santos]

Unfortunately we don't know at this point whether an antibody response is protective, what antibody titer might be required for protection, or for how long the antibody response might be protective.

I was in the category of the many who thought (hoped?) that recovering from Covid-19 will result in an "antibody" that will confer permanent immunity. Then the other day in one of the WH press briefings, I heard Dr. Birx say that there are a lot of unknowns around antibodies and recoveree immunity, and specifically we don't yet definitively know that a protective antibody even exists, and if it does, whether is effective for a week, a month, or a year, or more.

Your comment is basically echoing what I thought I heard from her.
This is all loaded with variables and very complicated. I think it really compounds matters that there is a bias in human nature that causes us to interpret information the way we want it to be and wish it were, thus making misinformation perhaps the most virulent aspect of the pandemic.

[Curt Harms]

<snip>
Your comment is basically echoing what I thought I heard from her.
This is all loaded with variables and very complicated. I think it really compounds matters that there is a bias in human nature that causes us to interpret information the way we want it to be and wish it were, thus making misinformation perhaps the most virulent aspect of the pandemic.

Sad but true. I don't envy those tasked with making the decisions about whether to continue the isolation or begin the relax the restrictions. Hindsight is indeed 20/20 and they WILL be second guessed.

[Stan Calow]

Sad but true. I don't envy those tasked with making the decisions about whether to continue the isolation or begin the relax the restrictions. Hindsight is indeed 20/20 and they WILL be second guessed.
The masses of people are making this decision on their own without waiting for guidance from the decision-makers. I see fewer people wearing masks and none wearing gloves, every day. Much of the neighborhood chatter (NextDoor) is about people looking for ways around the restrictions.

[John K Jordan]

...I see fewer people wearing masks and none wearing gloves, every day. ...

Around here I see more people wearing masks every week - customers, clerks, and shelf-stockers in stores, delivery guys, pumping gas, out walking.

[Jim Becker]

Masks are required here in PA when entering businesses and other places that are open to the public and that includes employees of the same. Most folks are complying but it's scary that "some people" forget that the mask has to actually be covering both their mouth and nose. Dude running the checkout at TrueValue the other day had his nose sticking out of his mask. That solicited a "teen girl worthy" eye roll from me for sure...

[roger wiegand]

As we are in the middle of what we hope will be the highest tide of the surge of cases and deaths compliance around here with masks and gloves is at the 95% level. Many stores won't let you in without a mask. The roads and streets are pretty much empty, most people who are out on the street are wearing masks. There is evidence that it is working, so that's good.