This man saw it coming

[Edwin Santos]

If you have 9 minutes to spare, listen to the pandemic warning given to the world in 2015 by Bill Gates in his Ted talk. He laid out the problem and the preparedness solutions succinctly.

When asked in a Q&A appearance on CNN the other night about how many of his recommendations from 2015 were adopted, he answered none. He estimated his preparedness steps would've cost in the tens of billions to fully implement. In a vacuum, yes this is a pretty big number, but in the context of the loss of life and economic damage we have and will suffer due to the Coronavirus pandemic, it's trivial.
Fascinating to listen to this from the perspective of where we are today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI


Disclaimer: I'm a massive Bill Gates fan. Sure he's a human being and probably has his flaws. Sure, there are people who are critics of Microsoft for one reason or another.
But it's also a indisputable fact that he is the single most philanthropic human being that has ever walked the planet.
Edwin

[Frederick Skelly]

I'm a fan of Gates' philanthropy too. He's no angel, but the man is doing a lot of good.
I'll watch this tomorrow. Thanks Edwin!

[Doug Dawson]

If you have 9 minutes to spare, listen to the pandemic warning given to the world in 2015 by Bill Gates in his Ted talk. He laid out the problem and the preparedness solutions succinctly.

When asked in a Q&A appearance on CNN the other night about how many of his recommendations from 2015 were adopted, he answered none. He estimated his preparedness steps would've cost in the tens of billions to fully implement. In a vacuum, yes this is a pretty big number, but in the context of the loss of life and economic damage we have and will suffer due to the Coronavirus pandemic, it's trivial.
Fascinating to listen to this from the perspective of where we are today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI


Disclaimer: I'm a massive Bill Gates fan. Sure he's a human being and probably has his flaws. Sure, there are people who are critics of Microsoft for one reason or another.
But it's also a indisputable fact that he is the single most philanthropic human being that has ever walked the planet.
Edwin

Serious respect to Bill Gates for giving that TED talk. But Serious People have been talking about this for decades. Preparedness plans were made, along with the follow-through, and then later ignorantly discarded. No one person, no matter how wealthy, can replace an all-out multi-governnmental commitment to battle something like we're experiencing right now.

[Stan Calow]

... But Serious People have been talking about this for decades. Preparedness plans were made, along with the follow-through, and then later ignorantly discarded. No one person, no matter how wealthy, can replace an all-out multi-governnmental commitment to battle something like we're experiencing right now.

Absolutely true. Agencies involved in public health and emergency planning at all levels have been saying this for years.

[Tom M King]

He foresaw it because he reads Scientific Journals, and believes that Scientists have a better chance of being right, than simple minded politicians.

[Jim Koepke]

He foresaw it because he reads Scientific Journals, and believes that Scientists have a better chance of being right, than simple minded politicians.

Here on the Creek and on other sites with community discussions there are old posts/threads that pop up again when someone reads them and makes a reply. They are often referred to as "Zombie Posts or Zombie Threads."

The same happens in public thinking and are sometimes referred to as "Zombie Ideas."

Even if these ideas are clearly proven to be false, some people will cling to them claiming any evidence to the contrary is fake. If those holding on to these "Zombie Ideas" are the ones who wield or influence power, we may be governed by them. Until these "Zombie Ideas" can be expelled, we will continue to suffer from their influence.

Upton Sinclair said, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

jtk

[Frank Drackman]

I am a retired Microsoft guy & worked close with BIll on many projects. He is by far the smartest person that I have ever met.

I was continually amazed at his breath & depth of knowledge. During my tenure I ran many projects & every few months I would sit down for a few hour review. He would know almost as much as I did about the topics. At that time the company had many other projects going on and he had the same level of knowledge on most.

Somehow the fact that he is extremely funny never made it to the public.

As an aside, this is the 20th anniversary of the release of Xbox. Microsoft hired a documentary film company to produce a film about the creation of it. I have spent many hours with the producers & directors. It has been a fun experience.

[glenn bradley]

If I hear one more of our leaders pat themselves on the back for how quickly and adeptly they reacted to this big unexpected and surprising situation I may go to bed and stay there for the duration :D

[Ken Fitzgerald]

If I hear one more of our leaders pat themselves on the back for how quickly and adeptly they reacted to this big unexpected and surprising situation I may go to bed and stay there for the duration :D

You're a wee bit late, Mate! ;):D

[roger wiegand]

Predicting pandemics is right up there with predicting that there will be earthquakes, drought, floods, or that the sun will rise. With the sun you can have more certainty with timing, but the certainty of the events happening remains the same-- 100% (short of an asteroid wiping out the planet, I guess). Our inability or unwillingness to plan for absolutely certain, high likelihood (ie very likely to occur once or more in most people's lifetimes), events astonishes me sometimes. I don't much fault people for not preparing for the earth-destroying asteroid, though it too is pretty certain to happen sometime in the next couple of billion years.

[Jim Koepke]

Predicting pandemics is right up there with predicting that there will be earthquakes, drought, floods, or that the sun will rise. With the sun you can have more certainty with timing, but the certainty of the events happening remains the same-- 100% (short of an asteroid wiping out the planet, I guess). Our inability or unwillingness to plan for absolutely certain, high likelihood (ie very likely to occur once or more in most people's lifetimes), events astonishes me sometimes. I don't much fault people for not preparing for the earth-destroying asteroid, though it too is pretty certain to happen sometime in the next couple of billion years.

Yes, predicting events is uncertain. Being prepared for events is simple planning using foresight of many possible situations.

Pandemics, earthquakes, droughts, floods and other disasters all require many of the same supplies to aid in recovery. A system of regional warehouses nationally could be used by the makers of these products for storage of an over supply that is regularly rotated. Then in time of need could fill in the holes in the system.

There should also be national disaster anti-profiteering legislation. It could be in the form of a 100% tax on margins above the price of a product before the disaster. Stores could also change pricing to first item or so many at 'sale' price, more at a ridiculous price. The collected taxes could go to disaster preparedness and relief.

There is much to be done to deal with our national disasters. We just need to have people brave enough to do it.

jtk

[Wade Lippman]

Anyone who heard of SARS or Ebola should have seen it coming. We are just lucky it isn't as deadly as those two; and that those two weren't as contagious. Just a matter of time until one is both.

Anyone heard of EMP? If North Korea sets off a hydrogen bomb high over Nebraska, the electromagnetic pulse will burn out every transformer in North America. We will have NO electricity until it is repaired, and there is no way to repair it without electricity. So, quite literally, the United States is over. 250,000,000 will die in the next few months. Some Mormons and farmers will survive. No one disputes this, yet no one is willing to do anything about it. It will cost about $50B to harden the generators (less than the cost of a single carrier group or Trump's wall) but doing it won't get any votes from anyone, so it's not going to happen.
Likewise, preparing for an epidemic would cost a lot of money, but not get any votes; so it wasn't done.
We got royally burnt on the epidemic; is the EMP next?

[Patrick Walsh]

I’m also a bill fan.

Thanks for sharing this.

Over there “you know” the other thread the point I was rally trying to make is outlined well by others above.

I’m just not so eloquent lol.

[Doug Dawson]

Anyone who heard of SARS or Ebola should have seen it coming. We are just lucky it isn't as deadly as those two; and that those two weren't as contagious. Just a matter of time until one is both.

Anyone heard of EMP? If North Korea sets off a hydrogen bomb high over Nebraska, the electromagnetic pulse will burn out every transformer in North America. We will have NO electricity until it is repaired, and there is no way to repair it without electricity. So, quite literally, the United States is over. 250,000,000 will die in the next few months. Some Mormons and farmers will survive. No one disputes this, yet no one is willing to do anything about it. It will cost about $50B to harden the generators (less than the cost of a single carrier group or Trump's wall) but doing it won't get any votes from anyone, so it's not going to happen.
Likewise, preparing for an epidemic would cost a lot of money, but not get any votes; so it wasn't done.
We got royally burnt on the epidemic; is the EMP next?

This is DARK, so please stop reading now if you are easily upset.

Actually, nothing more than a small "ordinary" (i.e. non-hydrogen) nuclear weapon exploded at an altitude of 100 miles, just off the east coast (possibly launched from a ship) would kill off power to the whole Eastern Seaboard (and also most solid state devices that people use, such as in phones or cars.) This is how it would likely start. Nuclear non-proliferation please! Keep the nukes out of the hands of nutjobs. And buy a shortwave radio, and store it in a Faraday cage. It might be all you have left.

[Stewie Simpson]

This is DARK, so please stop reading now if you are easily upset.

Actually, nothing more than a small "ordinary" (i.e. non-hydrogen) nuclear weapon exploded at an altitude of 100 miles, just off the east coast (possibly launched from a ship) would kill off power to the whole Eastern Seaboard (and also most solid state devices that people use, such as in phones or cars.) This is how it would likely start. Nuclear non-proliferation please! Keep the nukes out of the hands of nutjobs. And buy a shortwave radio, and store it in a Faraday cage. It might be all you have left.

Doug; who was it that tweeted the following;

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

[Wade Lippman]

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!


I don't know, but whoever it was is a moron. If Kim's button is big enough to destroy the US, it really doesn't matter if that other person has an even larger button.

We currently have 5 times the amount of nuclear weapons we need to end life on earth, without even launching them. Blowing them up in their silos is good enough. So why are we building new weapons? 5 times isn't enough, we need an even larger button? No, that person is a moron; whoever he is.

[Doug Dawson]

We currently have 5 times the amount of nuclear weapons we need to end life on earth, without even launching them. Blowing them up in their silos is good enough. So why are we building new weapons? 5 times isn't enough, we need an even larger button?

Its only real meaning is that it is a deterrent.

[Wade Lippman]

Its only real meaning is that it is a deterrent.

Okay; how is it a deterrent? I know that is what people say, but I genuinely don't understand the concept. The Russians, Chinese, Koreans, Iranians, whoever, know we can kill them all without serious effort. Yes, it means starting a WW that will kill us also, but we can do it and still have most of our arsenal left over. How does adding an additional ballistic missile sub increase the deterrent?

[Mel Fulks]

Doug; who was it that tweeted the following;

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

Stewie ,it was the USA President.

[Doug Dawson]

Okay; how is it a deterrent? I know that is what people say, but I genuinely don't understand the concept. The Russians, Chinese, Koreans, Iranians, whoever, know we can kill them all without serious effort. Yes, it means starting a WW that will kill us also, but we can do it and still have most of our arsenal left over. How does adding an additional ballistic missile sub increase the deterrent?

Yeah I know it sounds crazy. This is what arms control negotiations are all about, toning the whole thing down. Of course it relies on rational actors.

[Mel Fulks]

I think Bill Gates was probably suggesting that the USA should have all the safety features that HIS place has. That would
cost a bunch. But HE would feel even safer!

[Edwin Santos]

I think Bill Gates was probably suggesting that the USA should have all the safety features that HIS place has. That would
cost a bunch. But HE would feel even safer!

Let me get this straight; you're accusing the world's leading philanthropist of being self interested?

Man, this is a tough crowd.

[Mel Fulks]

Not accusing. Recognizing human strategy. Yes ,he is a good guy. Of course he has self interest ! There are things that can only be bought by government. We all have our own wish lists for what government should buy. I don't resent anyone
saying he would like to have something he can not afford.

[Mel Fulks]

Wade, everyone has wondered why we have so many nukes. Government does not like to talk about it. They used to
say it was needed because nukes had to be in lots of places to counter whatever was coming from any where.

[Mel Fulks]

Wade, the scenario you describe is why there is "tough talk" to those who threaten us. And it only works when you buy
more arms than what you need.

[Brian Tymchak]

If I hear one more of our leaders pat themselves on the back for how quickly and adeptly they reacted to this big unexpected and surprising situation I may go to bed and stay there for the duration :D

Well Glenn, you might want to lay in supplies to be in bed thru the November election..:(