This country in three months?

[Jamie Buxton]

Health officials are not sure, but they seem hopeful that if you survive a covid19 attack you get some sort of immunity to another attack, and you don't carry the disease to give to somebody else. If that turns out to be true, how does our society work in, say, three months. We'll have half the population being survivors, and half as yet uninfected. The survivors can go back to work. Do the uninfected still stay home to avoid getting infected? Or do they deliberately expose themselves to a dangerous disease, so they can go back to earning a salary -- if they survive that is? Boy is that bizarre. And what happens to social distancing? Do the uninfected wear special clothing to tell everybody they're still social distancing, so stay away from them?

[Steve Eure]

Good questions. Unfortunately there are no good answers at this time. Too much disinformation out there. We have a certain segment in our area that will not heed any warnings and still continue to party on as if they are immune to it. Unfortunately, our hospital tells a different story. We are a hotspot and the hospital is filled to capacity and are having to open up another icu to handle it. As usual, these nimrods carry on like they own the world. What they don't realize or are too stupid to understand is they may survive this, but they will give it to other family members who will not.

[Doug Dawson]

Health officials are not sure, but they seem hopeful that if you survive a covid19 attack you get some sort of immunity to another attack, and you don't carry the disease to give to somebody else. If that turns out to be true, how does our society work in, say, three months. We'll have half the population being survivors, and half as yet uninfected. The survivors can go back to work. Do the uninfected still stay home to avoid getting infected? Or do they deliberately expose themselves to a dangerous disease, so they can go back to earning a salary -- if they survive that is? Boy is that bizarre. And what happens to social distancing? Do the uninfected wear special clothing to tell everybody they're still social distancing, so stay away from them?

IOW, what should be the symbol of the Branch Covidians? :^) Me, I'm sticking to the hermitage, got my sani in me pocket. Fighting toe to toe, eyeball to eyeball, with the fire ants.

[Jim Koepke]

So far all of the societies that have been able to curb the spread of corvid-19 did it by testing the population and keeping those infected apart from the rest of the population.

Maybe the problem here is our tests are so beautiful, they are being kept on display instead of in the hands of medical professionals.

The second part of the problem is the time between first learning of covid-19 and responding was squandered with rhetoric instead of action.

This will not sort itself out. Once the rate of new infections drop to zero and people are no longer contagious, life can get back to normal. Hopefully before the virus cycles through the southern hemisphere a vaccine will be developed to keep us from having a recurrence next fall.

jtk

[Doug Dawson]

So far all of the societies that have been able to curb the spread of corvid-19 did it by testing the population and keeping those infected apart from the rest of the population.

Maybe the problem here is our tests are so beautiful, they are being kept on display instead of in the hands of medical professionals.

The second part of the problem is the time between first learning of covid-19 and responding was squandered with rhetoric instead of action.

This will not sort itself out. Once the rate of new infections drop to zero and people are no longer contagious, life can get back to normal. Hopefully before the virus cycles through the southern hemisphere a vaccine will be developed to keep us from having a recurrence next fall.


A hard lockdown, the testier the better, for as long as it takes, is the answer (from the best expert advice that I have found.) And the harder it gets, the shorter it will be.

I am _amazed_ by the number of cars still on the road, heard off in the distance, even now. We're supposed to be under shelter-in-place restrictions.

[Edwin Santos]

Maybe the problem here is our tests are so beautiful, they are being kept on display instead of in the hands of medical professionals.

The second part of the problem is the time between first learning of covid-19 and responding was squandered with rhetoric instead of action.

jtk

The tests here in the US are not just beautiful, they're tremendous!

As to your comment on responsiveness, I think you're spot on. Some countries that have managed this very well include Singapore and Taiwan. They responded immediately, and even before the WHO started making noise, even at the risk of overreacting. These countries got their training the hard way during SARS so their governments were ready to respond an their citizens were on board, at least in terms of familiarity.
Here in the US, it seems it's our first rodeo. At least it sure feels that way.
Edwin

P.S. As to the OP question, it's a valid one, but who can possibly answer it at this point?

[Doug Dawson]

The tests here in the US are not just beautiful, they're tremendous!

As to your comment on responsiveness, I think you're spot on. Some countries that have managed this very well include Singapore and Taiwan. They responded immediately, and even before the WHO started making noise, even at the risk of overreacting. These countries got their training the hard way during SARS so their governments were ready to respond an their citizens were on board, at least in terms of familiarity.
Here in the US, it seems it's our first rodeo. At least it sure feels that way.
Edwin

P.S. As to the OP question, it's a valid one, but who can possibly answer it at this point?

Well, I can. As a society, we don't believe in human sacrifice, last time I checked.

We've grown past throwing old people into volcanoes (although some young people are still volunteering and stepping up to the plate.)

[Kev Williams]

Guess it also depends on perspective... The wife just got off the phone with her sister, who's son is an RN in Texas. WHERE in Texas we don't know, but he was telling his mom 'don't believe everything you hear'... But not because of the actual mis-info that is running amok, seems he's disillusioned because the hospital he works at has plenty of empty beds, masks and ventilators yet they're laying him off because there's nothing to do, to the point they may close the place temporarily. Obviously this hospital is NOT a big city place and likely the populace is hunkered down and nobody's sick at the moment. If he's not been glued to a TV in his off time, and many people aren't, then his perspective may be 'what's all the fuss about?'...

Third hand from the wife, I don't know much else about the situation... :)

[Doug Dawson]

Guess it also depends on perspective... The wife just got off the phone with her sister, who's son is an RN in Texas. WHERE in Texas we don't know, but he was telling his mom 'don't believe everything you hear'... But not because of the actual mis-info that is running amok, seems he's disillusioned because the hospital he works at has plenty of empty beds, masks and ventilators yet they're laying him off because there's nothing to do, to the point they may close the place temporarily. Obviously this hospital is NOT a big city place and likely the populace is hunkered down and nobody's sick at the moment. If he's not been glued to a TV in his off time, and many people aren't, then his perspective may be 'what's all the fuss about?'...

Third hand from the wife, I don't know much else about the situation... :)

Convey to your sister that your nephew should enjoy his free time while he can. The crap is hitting a distant fan, it may not take too long before it gets there. :^)

[Brian Elfert]

I question if I may have had COVID-19 already and it was diagnosed as Influenza. My rapid test for Influenza came back as negative and they didn't do the longer test for Influenza for some reason. The doctor simply said I had all the signs of Influenza and said the test is not 100%. I had shortness of breath and other symptoms that match up with COVID-19. This was back in January before any doctor would have the slightest thought of anyone having COVID-19 in the USA.

Now, I figure I really did have Influenza as Influenza happens all the time. I'll never know for sure unless they somehow start testing people for exposure to COVID-19.

[Jeff Body]

Guess it also depends on perspective... The wife just got off the phone with her sister, who's son is an RN in Texas. WHERE in Texas we don't know, but he was telling his mom 'don't believe everything you hear'... But not because of the actual mis-info that is running amok, seems he's disillusioned because the hospital he works at has plenty of empty beds, masks and ventilators yet they're laying him off because there's nothing to do, to the point they may close the place temporarily. Obviously this hospital is NOT a big city place and likely the populace is hunkered down and nobody's sick at the moment. If he's not been glued to a TV in his off time, and many people aren't, then his perspective may be 'what's all the fuss about?'...

Third hand from the wife, I don't know much else about the situation... :)

Tell him to climb out of that hole and come to Florida. We'll hire him on the spot and show him what a real hospital is like.
I'd really like to know what hospital system he works for so I can do some research on it of my own.

[Kev Williams]

I'll see what I can find out next time the sisters talk, I'm curious at to his whereabouts...

meanwhile, 3rd hand info being what it is, that I caught quickly in passing: after more talking with the wife, turns out I misinterpreted the 'laying him off and may close the hospital' thing- that was some sarcasm on his part, as he IS frustrated because they cut his hours due to not much happening, wherever he is...

So how about that, a classic example of how misinformation can get started! And without any ulterior motives involved, wasn't on purpose. I admit my error, and stand corrected...please accept my apologies -

(That wasn't so hard) ;)

[Doug Garson]

So how about that, a classic example of how misinformation can get started! And without any ulterior motives involved, wasn't on purpose. I admit my error, and stand corrected...please accept my apologies -

(That wasn't so hard) ;)

I can think of a lot of people who could follow your example and one in particular. You know who I mean.

[Joe Hendershott]

I am _amazed_ by the number of cars still on the road, heard off in the distance, even now. We're supposed to be under shelter-in-place restrictions.

I would only point out that there are some people (I am not one of them) that still have to work, that if they do not work they may not have food for themselves and family. They do not others to help them out or the local resources are so taxed they are of little help.

There are those who don't care amd will never care about their actions and the consequences to others.

There are plenty of people that just do not trust or believe the government.

These things, and many others, explain the people out on the roads.

[Jason Roehl]

Traffic on the roads is way down locally. But, the list of "essential" businesses is extensive. And, I think you would be very surprised at what is involved in the supply chain to keep hospitals and grocery stores up and going. There are a lot of links in those supply chains.

For example, my wife works for a decent-sized, regional electrical supply company. Essential? Much of the business probably isn't. But they do supply various repair parts to hospitals and factories. Then you need electricians to install them. Electricians need to get to work, but their vans break down. They need mechanics. Mechanics need auto parts. Auto parts stores need workers. And factories to make the parts. And warehouses to distribute them via truck drivers, and on and on...you get the picture. We've been a JIT global economy for many years now, so all those links need to be there because we don't have reserves of inventory in many durable good sectors.

[Rod Sheridan]

A hard lockdown, the testier the better, for as long as it takes, is the answer (from the best expert advice that I have found.) And the harder it gets, the shorter it will be.

I am _amazed_ by the number of cars still on the road, heard off in the distance, even now. We're supposed to be under shelter-in-place restrictions.

Hi Doug, where I live gasoline is around 0.70/l down from about 1.20/l. The rods are almost empty.

I’m at the end of week 2 of work from home, my company will probably extend this for another few weeks.

My daughter is a nurse, when you wind up putting people on a ventilator, they need to be sedated and in ICU, that’s the issue, tying up enormous amounts of healthcare resources.

We probably need to stay locked down for months.....Rod

[Dan Hunkele]

Hopefully three months from now there is good news about a vaccine that works very well.

[Curt Harms]

Purely a SWAG here but I'd say traffic is down about 70%. We go out about every other day but it's to the local supermarket, maybe the drug store or post office but that's about it. I really feel for the people in the hospitality industry - hotels, restaurants, clubs. They have to be dying.

[Jim Falsetti]

Presented without comment, re OP's question:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge

[Ole Anderson]

I see a lot of negative rhetoric about non-essential businesses still going just to keep making profit. Doesn’t make it right, but many small business owners are scared to death they will loose their business that they put their life savings into and which employs many folks that are now friends. They feel a responsibility to keep them employed. Not about profit, it is about survival.

[Mark Bolton]

I question if I may have had COVID-19 already and it was diagnosed as Influenza. My rapid test for Influenza came back as negative and they didn't do the longer test for Influenza for some reason. The doctor simply said I had all the signs of Influenza and said the test is not 100%. I had shortness of breath and other symptoms that match up with COVID-19. This was back in January before any doctor would have the slightest thought of anyone having COVID-19 in the USA.

Now, I figure I really did have Influenza as Influenza happens all the time. I'll never know for sure unless they somehow start testing people for exposure to COVID-19.

Your story is one Ive heard numerous times and had myself as well. In early Feb went down with 103 fever for three days, hacking, not a ton of body ache, nasty. SO got hit with it two days before me (brought it home from a closed conference room meeting with a co-worker that showed up fully sick and locked in a meeting for 4 hours with a group of people). I just rode it out (I dont do doctors unless its diar). Had friends with the exact same "sick" as we had that went to the doctor tested negative for flu-a and flu-b but were told they didnt qualify for the corona test (this was way early when there were no tests).

Since that time I have spoken with customers, vendors, friends, and more, that have all told the same story of a January/February bug that took down their whole office. I think it was just a cold because most everyone bounced back in a week but had a persistent painful cough for a month after. I still have the cough in the morning with a steamy shower.

I remember having a virus many years ago (maybe 15) where I was sick for perhaps 2-3 weeks and couldnt shake it. Cough was brutal. Finally went to the small local doctor who knows me because was hanging on and he said "I know you dont like doctors and I know you dont like medications, most people would just come in here and demand antibiotics, but this is just something you have to ride out... I will write you a prescription if you want me to but it wont do any good".... he knew what the answer would be and I happily walked out the door knowing I wasnt dying and just rode it out for another month or so.

I would guess there are at least a third or half as many people who have, or have had, Covid that just ride it out or have very minimal symptoms.

Heard a story a bit back that the ultimate reality is that the entire population will eventually have it no different than the flu.

Peoples Pharmacy this morning had a really good episode covering a lot of the details.

[Jim Becker]

I see a lot of negative rhetoric about non-essential businesses still going just to keep making profit. Doesn’t make it right, but many small business owners are scared to death they will loose their business that they put their life savings into and which employs many folks that are now friends. They feel a responsibility to keep them employed. Not about profit, it is about survival.
Very true. But "survival" has more than one meaning here...that's the conundrum.

[Mark Bolton]

Presented without comment, re OP's question:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge

This is happening right now here in WV. Homeland Security and their state branches are involved. Out-of-state people are flocking here because of so few cases. Rest areas, trying to find campgrounds and cabins that are still available.

When this all started to break and we still had no cases there were scary prepper memes going all around with images of vigilante snipers perched on the side of the interstate saying "dont come here, you've ignored WV til now, dont look to us to save you"...

Sadly these scenarios often bring out the worst along with the best in humanity.

[Dave Anderson NH]

The idea of closing borders between the states is going to cause a political uproar and tons of lawsuits. Thus ends the politics in this thread so lets not go there. I will say that the idea of imprisoning someone for 90 days strikes me as ridiculous given the current need to "social distance". Where would they put the people and how would they prevent a horrendous locus of infection if even 1 person was positive? Not very well thought out except as a threat.

[Bill Dufour]

Went to home depot today to buy fence lumber. Our friend bought paint at another one within 10 miles. she had to wait in line until there was room inside. My store no controls on how many are inside.
Gas station told me business was down 70%. This is largely a commuter town.
Bil lD

[Wade Lippman]

I am _amazed_ by the number of cars still on the road, heard off in the distance, even now. We're supposed to be under shelter-in-place restrictions.

Well, most days you will see me on the road. I take my dog to an out of the way place and walk her for an hour or two. We only see a couple people, and stay 10' away from them. You got a problem with that?

OP... the only way we are getting back to normal in a few months is if it turns out to be strongly seasonal, or a great treatment turns up.

[Doug Dawson]

Well, most days you will see me on the road. I take my dog to an out of the way place and walk her for an hour or two. We only see a couple people, and stay 10' away from them. You got a problem with that?


Nope. Is this a Subaru commercial? :^)

[Brian Elfert]

Presented without comment, re OP's question:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge

It is not unusual for folks in the Minneapolis area to have a cabin elsewhere in the five state area. Many people are retreating to their cabins because they think they can get away from COVID-19. Residents who live there year round don't want the cabin dwellers there because the medical systems aren't set up to handle large numbers of sick people. One county has a single respirator and it is supposedly in an ambulance and not in a hospital.

This is a bit different than what is happening in Rhode Island as nobody is seeking out visitors from outside the area.

[Jason Roehl]

A local brewery with only a tap room does a "Beer & Hymns" the last Sunday of every month. It is always packed--we go 2-2.5 hours early so that our group (usually 4-10) has a place to sit. Since they're now closed to sit-in service, the musician hosted the event online last night. To help support the business, I got a couple growlers filled there yesterday. I asked the bartender how business was, and he replied that their margins are down due to not serving pints to sit-in customers because they're filling more lower-margin growlers. Overall volume of beer going out the door is up, though. Since my wife and I both have fairly stable jobs for now, we're trying to get take-out occasionally from our favorite local eateries--we want to see them survive this mess.

[Tom M King]

It is not unusual for folks in the Minneapolis area to have a cabin elsewhere in the five state area. Many people are retreating to their cabins because they think they can get away from COVID-19. Residents who live there year round don't want the cabin dwellers there because the medical systems aren't set up to handle large numbers of sick people. One county has a single respirator and it is supposedly in an ambulance and not in a hospital.

This is a bit different than what is happening in Rhode Island as nobody is seeking out visitors from outside the area.

Same, here at the lake.

[Jim Becker]

A local brewery with only a tap room does a "Beer & Hymns" the last Sunday of every month. It is always packed--we go 2-2.5 hours early so that our group (usually 4-10) has a place to sit. Since they're now closed to sit-in service, the musician hosted the event online last night. To help support the business, I got a couple growlers filled there yesterday. I asked the bartender how business was, and he replied that their margins are down due to not serving pints to sit-in customers because they're filling more lower-margin growlers. Overall volume of beer going out the door is up, though. Since my wife and I both have fairly stable jobs for now, we're trying to get take-out occasionally from our favorite local eateries--we want to see them survive this mess.

I noticed that the local craft brew-pub called Mad Princess (which in normal times only has limited hours and just snacks...no food) was open yesterday for take out. That was good to see.

[Robert Engel]

I question if I may have had COVID-19 already and it was diagnosed as Influenza. My rapid test for Influenza came back as negative and they didn't do the longer test for Influenza for some reason. The doctor simply said I had all the signs of Influenza and said the test is not 100%. I had shortness of breath and other symptoms that match up with COVID-19. This was back in January before any doctor would have the slightest thought of anyone having COVID-19 in the USA.

Now, I figure I really did have Influenza as Influenza happens all the time. I'll never know for sure unless they somehow start testing people for exposure to COVID-19.
This is an excellent point. I believe COVID has been here much longer than suspected & this has happened to many people.

Understand the test for Corona is an antigen test, IOW testing for the presence of the virus. Similar to the HIV dilemma years ago, one can test negative today and be positive tomorrow. This is why testing is not done unless you have a fever.

By contrast, a serological test reveals past infection by detecting antibodies in a recovered person. Until that type of epidemiological survey is done, the true extent of the infection will never be known. I suspect it will be vast, on the order of 10's of millions. This type of test will detect those people who had subclinical infections.

Personally, I believe for every confirmed case, there are easily 10-20X as many subclinical/recovered & now immune. This is what they call "herd immunity". Put plainly, as more and more people become immune, and the weakest die off, the epidemic subsides, at least for the time being.

Since most respiratory viruses are seasonal and affected by temperature, at this point there is no reason to believe COVID is any different.

[Wade Lippman]

This is an excellent point. I believe COVID has been here much longer than suspected & this has happened to many people.

Understand the test for Corona is an antigen test, IOW testing for the presence of the virus. Similar to the HIV dilemma years ago, one can test negative today and be positive tomorrow. This is why testing is not done unless you have a fever.

By contrast, a serological test reveals past infection by detecting antibodies in a recovered person. Until that type of epidemiological survey is done, the true extent of the infection will never be known. I suspect it will be vast, on the order of 10's of millions. This type of test will detect those people who had subclinical infections.

Personally, I believe for every confirmed case, there are easily 10-20X as many subclinical/recovered & now immune. This is what they call "herd immunity". Put plainly, as more and more people become immune, and the weakest die off, the epidemic subsides, at least for the time being.

Since most respiratory viruses are seasonal and affected by temperature, at this point there is no reason to believe COVID is any different.

I've always thought the same thing. For it to have spread so quick while infecting so few people would have require it to be simultaneously extremely contagious, and difficult to catch. It seems more likely that there are many cases that were too mild to be reported.

However, counting on it being seasonal might be misguided. It seems to be doing just fine in Australia and Thailand. Time will tell.

Oh, and testing isn't done without a fever because it would be a waste of scarce resources.

[Brian Elfert]

This is an excellent point. I believe COVID has been here much longer than suspected & this has happened to many people.

Understand the test for Corona is an antigen test, IOW testing for the presence of the virus. Similar to the HIV dilemma years ago, one can test negative today and be positive tomorrow. This is why testing is not done unless you have a fever.


I had a really bad fever of 104F when I had whatever I had. I had two ER visits due to severe dehydration one time and severe shortness of breath the other time. I went both times to a hospital with both urgent care and an ER. Triage sent me to the ER side both times. My father thinks I was close to be admitted when I was dehydrated and had 104F fever.

[Curt Harms]

This is an excellent point. I believe COVID has been here much longer than suspected & this has happened to many people.

Understand the test for Corona is an antigen test, IOW testing for the presence of the virus. Similar to the HIV dilemma years ago, one can test negative today and be positive tomorrow. This is why testing is not done unless you have a fever.

By contrast, a serological test reveals past infection by detecting antibodies in a recovered person. Until that type of epidemiological survey is done, the true extent of the infection will never be known. I suspect it will be vast, on the order of 10's of millions. This type of test will detect those people who had subclinical infections.

Personally, I believe for every confirmed case, there are easily 10-20X as many subclinical/recovered & now immune. This is what they call "herd immunity". Put plainly, as more and more people become immune, and the weakest die off, the epidemic subsides, at least for the time being.

Since most respiratory viruses are seasonal and affected by temperature, at this point there is no reason to believe COVID is any different.

A voice of reason in these times? Can't have that. Good post.