Pin Ball

[Jon Grider]

Yesterday, the wisdom of the day is keeping the curve on the virus low and prolonging it out a bit longer to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed by a huge spike. Most of us are complying by social distancing, hand washing, etc.etc. Fed gov't took steps to shut down borders, many states have stay at home mandates, schools are closed, the list goes on. Now, it seems today's wisdom is opening up the country and business by Easter Sunday, because "people want to go back to work" which is true. Sometimes though peoples desires are secondary to peoples safety. I just cannot keep up with what to me seems like a pin ball type policy that changes on a dime and is not imo consistent. Shaking my head in confusion.

[Jim Becker]

I think we can all agree that things are a moving target, but it's pretty clear that this particular topic is going to devolve into the political pretty quickly which is not permitted here. Let's not go there--and it will be hard. I'll leave this open for now, but the moderators and administrators will quickly make it disappear if our very sensible rules are, um...avoided.

Jim
Forum Moderator

[Jon Grider]

I think we can all agree that things are a moving target, but it's pretty clear that this particular topic is going to devolve into the political pretty quickly which is not permitted here. Let's not go there--and it will be hard. I'll leave this open for now, but the moderators and administrators will quickly make it disappear if our very sensible rules are, um...avoided.

Jim
Forum Moderator
Fair enough, Jim. I have no problem with the rules, delete if you are inclined, no bad feelings.

[Jim Koepke]

Now, it seems today's wisdom is opening up the country and business by Easter Sunday, because "people want to go back to work" which is true.

Jon, The "wisdom" of going back to work is not coming from medical professionals.

We are currently in a medical crisis. The advice from medical professionals will be my guide.

jtk

-Hopefully my self editing while typing this is non-political enough.

[Jim Koepke]

Just got back from a little walk into the kitchen and saw some commentary on the TV.

This reminds me of a story about how millions in the public were panicked on the evening of October 30, 1938. Orson Welles broadcast his now infamous War of the Worlds program.

It makes me wonder how many of those panicked citizens thought to change the station to verify the story? Probably not many.

To have useful information, it must be verified. Even my favorite sources of information may get it wrong at times. Sometimes in the heat of news program production a story will run without proper verification. It almost always results in something being missed or misstated.

When something doesn't sound right, check multiple sources.

There are many sources who are very diligent in upholding their reputations for accuracy.

jtk

[Bill Carey]

Just got back from a little walk into the kitchen and saw some commentary on the TV.

This reminds me of a story about how millions in the public were panicked on the evening of October 30, 1938. Orson Welles broadcast his now infamous War of the Worlds program.

It makes me wonder how many of those panicked citizens thought to change the station to verify the story? Probably not many.

To have useful information, it must be verified. Even my favorite sources of information may get it wrong at times. Sometimes in the heat of news program production a story will run without proper verification. It almost always results in something being missed or misstated.

When something doesn't sound right, check multiple sources.

There are many sources who are very diligent in upholding their reputations for accuracy.

jtk


We all need to do our research and arrive at our own opinions / beliefs. There are very responsible (and of course irresponsible) news outlets on the left, the right and in the center. The responsible ones are trying to be honest and forthright about their reporting. Policy differences will be an influence which is why I try to get info from various outlets: Fox, MSNBC, Wall Street Journal, Wash Post, etc etc. Sooner or later I need to decide what to believe so I may as well be as informed as possible.

[Jon Grider]

Fox Town Hall Meeting, 3/24/20

[Bryan Rocker]

All I will say is this, you look at the facts and make your own conclusions. The facts as they stand today are that the USA as over 53,000 cases of Covid-19, and almost 700 deaths. Compare that to the numbers from the CDC from previous years and determine whether the response is proportional.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1wAiqkh-c_UmLvhidDAKzBtwozwiHTx71au9PBQorrXx9xIZiSY8viYJo

Last years flu season alone was mild with 450K cases and over 30,000 deaths.

[Doug Dawson]

Fox Town Hall Meeting, 3/24/20

I doubt that the other networks are going to carry that important Presidential event.

It's interesting that the networks are starting to avoid these "press conferences" unless medical professionals (or other serious people) are allowed to weigh in at the podium?

[Bruce Wrenn]

Unfortunately, on TV the wrong person is doing the talking. Step aside, and let the experts (doctors) do the talking.

[Mark Rainey]

Unfortunately, on TV the wrong person is doing the talking. Step aside, and let the experts (doctors) do the talking.
Good point Bruce. The vast majority of medical experts strongly recommend a shut down. This is clear. Non medical experts like to blab on and on.

[Edwin Santos]

All I will say is this, you look at the facts and make your own conclusions. The facts as they stand today are that the USA as over 53,000 cases of Covid-19, and almost 700 deaths. Compare that to the numbers from the CDC from previous years and determine whether the response is proportional.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1wAiqkh-c_UmLvhidDAKzBtwozwiHTx71au9PBQorrXx9xIZiSY8viYJo

Last years flu season alone was mild with 450K cases and over 30,000 deaths.

I'm not sure where you're getting 450K cases. The CDC page you linked says that annual flu cases average between 9 million and 45 million and last year's estimate was about 36 million flu illnesses.

If what you are trying to do is make a proportionality argument by comparing conventional flu to Covid-19, then take the fatality rate of 1% that Italy is experiencing, and you will see the number of deaths would be 360,000 in comparison to the 30,000 you're referencing. And it gets worse if you accept the fact that Covid-19 is more contagious with the potential to infect many more people than the conventional flu. The concern and reaction to it is not the number of lives it has claimed thus far, but what the potential looks like it could be if it escalated unchecked.

Edwin

[Mel Fulks]

You guys just need to do your own news. Anyone with a working VCR can turn out valuable info on what's REALLY
happening. And update as needed. The world needs your smartness NOW! Thanks!

[Edwin Santos]

You guys just need to do your own news. Anyone with a working VCR can turn out valuable info on what's REALLY
happening. And update as needed. The world needs your smartness NOW! Thanks!

Working VCR? I must not understand what you're getting at.

[Jon Grider]

You guys just need to do your own news. Anyone with a working VCR can turn out valuable info on what's REALLY
happening. And update as needed. The world needs your smartness NOW! Thanks!
And thank you for your thoughtful input.

[Zachary Hoyt]

As far as I know the orders to close non-essential businesses, stay at home and such have been issued by state governments, not the federal government. I don't believe the feds can rescind orders made by state governments, so I think it will be up to the governors in the states that are locked down. Certainly the federal government is able to put political or funding or assistance pressure on states, but I think the governors of the states that are locked down are clear in their own minds about what they need to do to avoid making the crisis worse. I am trying not to be political in this post, but merely to express my (albeit limited and perhaps incorrect) understanding of which parts of government have which powers.

[Jeff Body]

My thoughts on this is that there is no play book for any of this. There is no rule book for shutting down an entire country.
I feel everyone is just trying to do their best. Try and find a balance.
I'm a Clinical engineer for a hospital and I know 100% we didn't have a policy or guideline for something like this. I've NEVER seen doctors so scared to go into a patient's room like I saw today. He was talking to the patient in ICU through the glass door. Most of the time we have to yell at the doctor to put on proper PPE before going into an isolation room but he wouldn't step foot in there today.

Being in Florida I would have to compare this in a small way to a hurricane. People panic, people hoard, and businesses shut down
But there's one big difference. With a hurricane there's a climax to the problem. Surviving the eye of the hurricane is the goal and from there you can guarantee things will start getting better. With this there is no foreseeable goal, no climax. Just dome and gloom. Today a goal was mentioned to give people somethings to achieve. People need goals in life. Whether it was the right things to do is anyone's guess.

Personally I finally figured out a way to describe all this.
"I feel like I'm dreaming a twilight or sci fi movie. There's no way any of it can be real, but I'm starting to panic because I can't wake up."

[Doug Dawson]

Good point Bruce. The vast majority of medical experts strongly recommend a shut down. This is clear. Non medical experts like to blab on and on.

This might be the most important article the New York Times has ever published:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html

It's not behind a paywall (the Times is good about stuff like that.)

[Bill Carey]

This might be the most important article the New York Times has ever published:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html

It's not behind a paywall (the Times is good about stuff like that.)


428784 behind a paywall for me. Wish I could read it.

edit - not enough coffee - I see the free account note now.

[Mark Rainey]

Die for the Dow!:eek:

[Bill Carey]

Die for the Dow!:eek:


Only if you are the Lt Gov of Texas. He's going to sacrifice himself for all of us. What a guy!!

[Charlie Velasquez]

428784 behind a paywall for me. Wish I could read it.

edit - not enough coffee - I see the free account note now.

You can forego signing up to read it. Look in the url address bar at the top of your browser window. Look for the mobile reader icon someplace in that bar, on my iPad Safari browser it looks like a small rectangle with several lines going across. Click on it.

[Malcolm McLeod]

Only if you are the Lt Gov of Texas. He's going to sacrifice himself for all of us. What a guy!!

“And those of us who are 70 plus, we’ll take care of ourselves. But don’t sacrifice the country.” - Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (quote from Dallas Morning News, 24 March 2020)

He doesn't say he'll sacrifice himself or anyone else, merely suggesting that he (we) will be responsible for himself (ourselves). Clearly an alien concept. Unfortunately.

[Keith Outten]

I expect everyone either has something to do to with their free time or they are looking for some kind of activity. You can't watch but so much television, it will drive you crazy :)

The time of year for me means its time to service machines, get them ready for the tasks ahead. I spent two days doing maintenance on my Polaris RZR ATV and now have my lawn mower in the shop for at least two days. Next will be the tractor and my ancient International Cub-Cadet. By the time I get these machines ready for war it will be time to start cutting grass again, sweeping gum balls and other spring cleanup tasks. Once things settle down I think Jackie and I will be installing new floor tiles in the kitchen and then move to other home projects to stay busy.

I am semi-retired which makes the situation much less of a concern about working an outside job and that is a blessing. I had already completed all of the sign projects I had intended to do this Winter and was getting ready for trail riding season. Unfortunately the Governor of West Virginia has shut down all of the Hatfield McCoy trail systems and depending on the duration of the quarantine I may not get to ride this Spring. Another unfortunate situation, I only got to ride one time last Fall do to medical problems and I don't ride in the heat of the Summer.

My saving grace is that I have a workshop that is always available to keep me active and the work is always good for the soul. Along with woodworking projects I also do some metal work, I have been working on a pulverizer implement for my tractor for many months on and off, it would be nice to finish this job and move to the next. I also just received four 48" long LED strips that I will install in my van to light up the interior...another job I have been wanting to get done for many months.

I hope all of you will be able to stay busy and somehow enjoy your time at home. If you own a very old home like I do I know you will be able to use the time wisely :)

[Jeff Body]

I also just received four 48" long LED strips that I will install in my van to light up the interior...

What in the world???
Are you making a mobile grow house? That's alot of lighting.

[Jim Becker]

Keith, you bring up a good point...spring maintenance season really is here, for both machinery and "cleanup". Of course, the weather has to cooperate...

[Charlie Velasquez]

I expect everyone either has something to do to with their free time or they are looking for some kind of activity. You can't watch but so much television, it will drive you crazy :) ........

.... hope all of you will be able to stay busy and somehow enjoy your time at home. If you own a very old home like I do I know you will be able to use the time wisely :)

Adding electricity to my “shed” I put up last summer. I am allowed to do my own wiring as long as I pass a “homeowner” electric test (I did) and have it permitted and inspected.

Unfortunately, our home’s previous owner finished off the basement years after it was built. He did nice work, but he built a bedroom in the area of the service panel, enclosing it in the closet and recessing it in the wall. Obviously he didn’t permit his work.
The AHJ said when they inspect my work those issues must be addressed. So, a simple wire pull has turned into a minor remodel project.

Figured as long as I was ripping into walls I would upgrade the existing 60 amp sub panel that feeds the garage to allow for future auto charging stations (looking at a Tesla or similar). And, I intend to add a generator inlet to back feed my panel with an interlock.

[Doug Dawson]

This might be the most important article the New York Times has ever published:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html

It's not behind a paywall (the Times is good about stuff like that.)

For anyone who is having trouble, go to news.google.com and type in "the virus can be stopped but only with harsh steps" to the search bar, it will take you right there. I tested this on a remote machine.

[Stan Calow]

I think we underestimate how many people are still working. The categories of essential are pretty broad, and at least in my city, includes construction and home services. So lawn care, landscaping, deliveries, roofing, homebuilding and home repairs, are all still going on, as long as they maintain social distance. Everyone I know who works in an office environment - on computer and phone - is working from home. As I understand our stay-at-home order, even non-essential work can be done if it is done at home or with proper social distancing. Per media reports, rural areas are not acting much differently than they were before.

[Jim Becker]

Building trades, etc., are idled here, other than for necessary repair work. No new construction; no renovation, etc. Companies doing service work, such as HVAC, all have distancing and other safety procedures in place, including "no homeowner supervision" of the work. Real estate firms did get a waiver to keep already scheduled closings on track, but with modifications, such as only the buyers and sellers (separately) signing papers with the closing agent in a tent in a parking lot with the Realtors required to stay in their vehicles...minimal human interaction. Work from home is very much permitted. Businesses with Internet sales operations can continue, but store fronts are closed.

My good friend who is a general contractor is using the time to tie more fishing flies...something he's really into and very good at.

[Roger Feeley]

Here are some observations from reading various news and medical websites.

1. Herd immunity is calculated as (R0-1)/R0. So if R0 is 3 we need 2/3 of the population to be immune to achieve herd immunity.
2. R0 for Covid 19 is generally given as between 2 and 3. That would mean that we need something like 50-66%. Yikes, that's a lot of people!
3. If we get a vaccine, we win because the percentage of immune jumps by a lot. But a vaccine is, at best, a year away. We can't keep our economy in an induced coma for that long.
4. R0 for this disease is not a constant. It's some sort of hash of the transmissiblity of the disease and human behavior. If our form of greeting is to wave from far away, R0 goes down. If it's to pick each others noses, R0 goes up.

So...
4. The name of the game is to manage infections but not suppress them completely. We need as many people to become infected (and live) as possible without overwhelming the health care system. Somehow, we have to gradually release the screws and watch the infection rate. Further, we need to skew those infections to those people that are most likely to survive them. The goal is that magic herd immunity even if we go back to pre-pandemic behaviors.

If I'm right in the above points, we have a long way to go. The alternative would be to tamp this thing down and then be super vigilant so that any infection doesn't spread out of control. Then we would sort of live with the virus until there's a vaccine.

[Jim Becker]

Further, we need to skew those infections to those people that are most likely to survive them.

We now know that this is an impossible thing to ascertain and honestly, trying to direct infection rates to a certain demographic wouldn't be very moral. While it's clear that folks with certain medical compromises are more susceptible to lethal cases, there is now enough evidence that it's also clear that Covid-19 is dangerous to people of any age and any demographic. Continued care is required so we can get through "the cycle" with the least overwhelming of the health care system. That brings lots of short term pain, but also raises the changes of a better recovery in a few months time.

[Frederick Skelly]

This might be the most important article the New York Times has ever published:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html

It's not behind a paywall (the Times is good about stuff like that.)

Interesting article. Thanks for posting.

[Mark Rainey]

“And those of us who are 70 plus, we’ll take care of ourselves. But don’t sacrifice the country.” - Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (quote from Dallas Morning News, 24 March 2020)

He doesn't say he'll sacrifice himself or anyone else, merely suggesting that he (we) will be responsible for himself (ourselves). Clearly an alien concept. Unfortunately.
The true measure of a society can be found in how we treat our most vulnerable

[Frederick Skelly]

The true measure of a society can be found in how we treat our most vulnerable

You're right of course. And let's not forget one corollary to that: "God helps those who help themselves." IMO, each of them is equally true, equally important and each should be applied when/where they are most appropriate. One size doesn't fit all. YMMV. :)

Fred

[Jacob Reverb]

I haven't read the thread, so I don't know whether this has been mentioned yet, but somewhere I was reading that the authorities may decide they want to "titrate" or "throttle" the spread of coronavirus, by "opening up" society again if it stops or "stalls" in its spread, then clamping down again if it starts to take off again...almost like throttling a wood stove or engine or forest fire. I guess what they're afraid of is that if the spread of the disease stalls or stops, it may delay the spread of CV throughout society until the winter, when people will be sick with other bugs, thus making CV more deadly at that time. They're also trying to avoid huge spikes, of course, and one way to do that is by building "backfires" where all the fuel is already burned up (population has already gotten it and is immune).

I believe they're hoping that by next winter, pretty much the entire population will have been exposed to CV and built up an immunity, and that what they're trying to avoid are cresting "crown fires" where the number of sick people goes through the roof. Unfortunately, one of the best ways to do that is to reduce the number of people who are susceptible to CV, by allowing them to become infected in a more "controlled" way. Ugly calculus...

[Jim Koepke]

somewhere I was reading that the authorities may decide they want to "titrate" or "throttle" the spread of coronavirus, by "opening up" society again if it stops or "stalls" in its spread, then clamping down again if it starts to take off again...almost like throttling a wood stove or engine or forest fire.

Jacob, There is a lot of errant information currently on the web. This doesn't sound like anything reported by any of the major/reliable news sources.

"Herd immunity" is a commonly mentioned idea. It can be accomplished via vaccine. Hopefully before next winter one will be available.

Sadly, there is too much disinformation coming from sources unreliable sources. Some can be verified through Snopes or other services.

jtk