Coronavirus _ worried?

[Pat Barry]

Are you starting to worry about Coronavirus yet?

[Ron Citerone]

Are you starting to worry about Coronavirus yet?


Not really, the death rate is less than the flu so it's not worrying me too much even though I am 61 and a heart patient.

I will say from working in schools, it is amazing how fast a flu or stomach virus can race through a school.

[Jim Koepke]

We go in to town usually at most a couple times a week. If more cases start showing up in our area, we may load up the fridge and freezer and stay home more.

jtk

[mike stenson]

Eh, it's coming. Nothing can be done about that. Wash your hands, stay home if you're sick. Don't sneeze/cough into open air, etc etc. Be happy this isn't 100 years ago. FWIW, I regularly work with people in China, I've been concerned about this for them for a bit already and I'm honestly surprised it hasn't hit the US more heavily already.

[Doug Dawson]

Are you starting to worry about Coronavirus yet?

It only attacks the old and infirm, re mortality, so keep healthy and get over it. The really awful consequences historically were when these things took down otherwise vigorous young people.

Just say no to anyone offering you a taste of monkey meat, etc. That's where it started.

[William Chain]

It only attacks the old and infirm, re mortality, so keep healthy and get over it.

That is incorrect. A number of the dead were young healthy people. For example, the thirty something year old physician trying to treat patients in Wuhan.

[Pat Barry]

Not really, the death rate is less than the flu so it's not worrying me too much even though I am 61 and a heart patient.

I will say from working in schools, it is amazing how fast a flu or stomach virus can race through a school.
The death rate is approximated as 2%. Contrast that with typical flu of 0.1% and coronavirus is 20x worse death rate than the flu.

Ed: There are currently 81,714 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,771 fatalities which equates to a 3.4% death rate

[Pat Barry]

Misinformation is worse than no information, particularly about things like this where there is a clear lack of good information. The death rate may be significantly worse (or somewhat lower) than the 2% approximated and unfortunately it will take quite a long time (months) to know for sure.

[Stan Calow]

Its not the death rate that's the problem, its the potential for high rates of sick people, filling hospital beds, unable to work and earn money, schools closed, factories and businesses closed due to high rates of absences. Every sick person requires other people to take care of them. Thats a huge drain on a local economy, let alone a country or region. Even if you dont personally get sick, there's an impact.

[mike stenson]

Even if you dont personally get sick, there's an impact.

Already has been so far. I'm honestly hoping it doesn't help bring on a recession.

[Bruce Wrenn]

Misinformation is worse than no information, particularly about things like this where there is a clear lack of good information. The death rate may be significantly worse (or somewhat lower) than the 2% approximated and unfortunately it will take quite a long time (months) to know for sure.


If you want to know if it will make you sick, just look at your 401K's value in the last two weeks

[Doug Dawson]

That is incorrect. A number of the dead were young healthy people. For example, the thirty something year old physician trying to treat patients in Wuhan.

You are correct. I should have said that the mortality _skews_heavily_ towards the old and infirm.

Many more people die of the flu each year.

One choice that was omitted from the poll, was, should we take this more seriously than was done on our behalf? And my answer is yes. There is a big span between devil-may-care and lock-up-your-women-and-children. We can deal with this, intelligently.

[Doug Dawson]

One choice that was omitted from the poll, was, should we take this more seriously than was done on our behalf? And my answer is yes. There is a big span between devil-may-care and lock-up-your-women-and-children. We can deal with this, intelligently.

Are we allowed to criticize the communist chinese government here?

[Thomas L Carpenter]

Not yet but being one of the old and infirm (74) I take it seriously.

[John K Jordan]

Are you starting to worry about Coronavirus yet?

I don't worry but I do have concerns. One concern is a trip planned to Italy in a couple of months. According to our contacts there and the news reports some of our long-planned destinations in Northern Italy are already under lockdown. There are apparently about 400 known cases in Italy now and a dozen deaths. This morning's news indicates seven additional European counties have now reported cases, some involving people who had been to Italy.

If I had a working crystal ball maybe I could decide if I should cancel now and just lose a few thousand dollars already spent. I'm seriously considering staying home. This would even involved close contact with crowds of international travelers at the airports and customs.

Depending on the situation in a few months I can imagine being denied reentry to the US or enduring an extended quarantine on return. Or becoming a statistic.

JKJ

[greg Forster]

yup...I'm invested in a Chinese wealth management company (NOAH), dropped from $39 to $29 in a couple of weeks

[Prashun Patel]

I'm in the same boat. Was planning a trip to Barcelona. Think I may eat the loss.

NYTimes "The Daily" had a great podcast this AM about the relative severity of COVID vs previous recent virus epidemics.

[John K Jordan]

Updates:

There are now 528 cases reported in Italy, up about 100 from yesterday, and two more deaths, 14 total.

An Italian regional governor has gone into self-isolation after a staff member was diagnosed with the disease.

My Lovely Bride follows the Rick Steves forum and reports from those with feet on the ground. I'll find out in a bit what she learns today.

The US State Department issued a Travel Advisory yesterday (Wednesday) suggesting to use caution when traveling to Italy. It does not YET recommend to avoid travel to Italy. I'm not totally reassured.

JKJ

[Bob Grier]

Yes, I am worried about catching it. I usually get the flu even though I always get the flue shot. I am not young and healthy strong anymore.

I am also pissed off about how the economy is going to be affected. I was planning on buying a house in another state during the next few months and selling my current house at the end of next summer. That is completely out of phase with what the housing market will be doing.

I would not be planning a trip overseas or to places where crowds will be for the foreseeable future. If travel then I would purchase airline trip insurance unless you are a really healthy teenager. Even then I would do insurance because what ever you are going to attend may be cancelled.

[William Chain]

Normally I would step back, but this is important and can get dangerous with misinformation.


You are correct. I should have said that the mortality _skews_heavily_ towards the old and infirm.

We are only gathering data now on who is most vulnerable. This is not necessarily true of COVID-19. It's dangerous. Period. Full stop.


Many more people die of the flu each year.

Raw numbers, yes. Percentagewise, no! COVID-19 has a 20-fold higher mortality rate than flu. As of now, there are fewer COVID-19 cases than flu. Let's hope it stays that way, but we best prepare for quite the opposite. There are more flu cases, thus more mortality in terms of raw numbers there.




One choice that was omitted from the poll, was, should we take this more seriously than was done on our behalf? And my answer is yes. There is a big span between devil-may-care and lock-up-your-women-and-children. We can deal with this, intelligently.

We can only hope that the government response is largely not reflected by the embarrassing press conference. There was so much false information (from largely one individual) in that press conference that it is frightening.

[Adam Herman]

we are getting prepared for shortages of non-essentials. dog food, chicken food. if the chickens can eat, we have an excellent home grown source of protein. our cellar still has many squash and lots of cans of tomatoes. probably be able to last until the garden starts producing this seasons crop if it does get really bad here. i expect though that this will not effect essentials like food and water too much. I can see problems with stuff like pet food if the virus gains a foothold in the US.

cdc is saying we have our first community transmission in northern CA. So be prepared. It's not prepping, you will use all the supplies eventually. if not this global issue, the next one.

[Bruce Wrenn]

I don't worry but I do have concerns. One concern is a trip planned to Italy in a couple of months.

If I had a working crystal ball maybe I could decide if I should cancel now and just lose a few thousand dollars already spent. I'm seriously considering staying home. This would even involved close contact with crowds of international travelers at the airports and customs.

Depending on the situation in a few months I can imagine being denied reentry to the US or enduring an extended quarantine on return. Or becoming a statistic.

JKJSure hope you bought trip insurance! Soon, if not already, trip insurance won't be available to lots of destinations.

[George Yetka]

People keep saying its not as bad as the flu are wrong. It just started end of 2019 and its made it worldwide. the flue virus starts everywhere lying dormant and hits the numbers it does. COVID-10 started in 1 meet market.

The rate of infection is much greater. 2-3 times greater. Not as bad as smallpox or polio or Measles but we have vaccines for those. And the mortality rate is 20 x greater. All diseases attack the week worse then the rest

[mike stenson]

We should, at least, be clear that when people refer to influenza they are referring to a normal year.. and standard strain. Not something like H5N1 (which had an obnoxiously high mortality rate).

[Edwin Santos]

Updates:

There are now 528 cases reported in Italy, up about 100 from yesterday, and two more deaths, 14 total.

An Italian regional governor has gone into self-isolation after a staff member was diagnosed with the disease.

My Lovely Bride follows the Rick Steves forum and reports from those with feet on the ground. I'll find out in a bit what she learns today.

The US State Department issued a Travel Advisory yesterday (Wednesday) suggesting to use caution when traveling to Italy. It does not YET recommend to avoid travel to Italy. I'm not totally reassured.

JKJ

Even if you're courageous enough to go anyway, you ought to consider whether the place you're visiting is so disrupted that it takes all the enjoyment out of it. I guess you won't be able to assess that until you get closer to your scheduled travel dates, but it's just another angle to think about.

[Scott Winners]

The wife and I are stocking up on non perishables. We spent most of the winter emptying the freezer and pulling canned goods out of the pantry anyway. We will make room in the freezer again for when the salmon are running this summer. Not bunker, just keeping the food storage topped up.

[Mark Bolton]

We should, at least, be clear that when people refer to influenza they are referring to a normal year.. and standard strain. Not something like H5N1 (which had an obnoxiously high mortality rate).

And the fact that governments, the medical and pharma, have had YEARS AND YEARS of preparedness against numerous strains of influenza. No different than the rash outbreaks of Ebola that are immediately contained on pretty much a military level, virtually every single entity with a possible vaccine for ebola after all this time has stated they are 1.5 years to release of any quantity that would reasonably put a dent.

Thats the fear with this one. 20x mortality rate, pretty much zero preparedness even though pharma has been on Corona for 10 years (but there was no profit in it so....)...

The bonus to come out of this is the planet may finally see a reduction in the consumption of bush meat. If this hits far enough out in to the sticks individuals may finally realize that markets selling bats, monkeys, and all sorts of other caught wild animals is a grave grave mistake.

Ebola is said to have likely made the jump from A SINGLE HUMAN from a bat, and now has spread to the nightmare it is now. Corona virus has been traced back to a single market in China selling bush meat and likely also made the jump from a bat to a human. We now have 5 strains of Ebola on the planet.

[mike stenson]

I haven't seen anything that actually points to a source yet. Just a whole lot of conjecture. We have corona viruses spread every year btw. They're not uncommon.

[Bill Dufour]

Talk is they may restore some of the funding cuts to the CDC and public health service. The CDC is mad that they got overruled and the state department brought in a plane load of people, including known infected ones. Surprise, surprise some of them got infected on the ride home with the sick ones. Caring is sharing!
Bill D.

[Mark Bolton]

I haven't seen anything that actually points to a source yet. Just a whole lot of conjecture. We have corona viruses spread every year btw. They're not uncommon.

The outbreak has definitively been traced back to a few dozen workers at a live animal market in Wuhan. Thats fact. Scientists have pointed it to bats, ant eater, and several others though with no definitive conclusion as of yet. The simple fact is bush meat/live animal transfer is where the jump happened. No different than Ebola. Its not a matter of where, its just a matter of the definitive source.

[Michael Weber]

I sincerely hope it is controlled and minimized for society's and humanities sake. But personally, After numerous "scares" and media alarms over the decades, put me in the "what me worry" camp.
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[jeff norris 2011]

Are we allowed to criticize the communist chinese government here?

Funny thing is poor governance lead to the start of this, but I think the Chinese governments ability to mount a mass coordinated response and the Chinese people willingness to conform to direction will help the greatly contain this. Ironically I see corruption to blame, by communism will help solve it.

In 'the west' I think our biggest issue will be the 'me first' mentality. People will ignore the steps we need to contain this, they will decide they know better than the health professionals.

[Mark Bolton]

In 'the west' I think our biggest issue will be the 'me first' mentality. People will ignore the steps we need to contain this, they will decide they know better than the health professionals.

Perhaps the best statement Ive read in a long time. A combination of corporate driven media driving a constant state of painic and fear to keep viewers tuned in has led to a huge faction of the population thinking everything from weather to spread of virus is an overblown media scam (which it all too often is) and we are all waiting for the unfortunate time that its real.

You cant foul up the fish tank and not expect the tank to finally turn over and all but one or two are left floating upside down, the tank then recovers and finds is balance, and starts again. Sadly we cant choose the floaters.

[John K Jordan]

Even if you're courageous enough to go anyway, you ought to consider whether the place you're visiting is so disrupted that it takes all the enjoyment out of it. I guess you won't be able to assess that until you get closer to your scheduled travel dates, but it's just another angle to think about.

We've already considered that, thanks. Several things on our list are already closed, at least for now. This was to be our fifth trip or sixth to Italy so it's not a missed lifetime opportunity if it doesn't happen, although it might be more disappointing for the guest we were taking who has not yet visited.

My wife said this morning that we could easily spend the whole trip driving and touring across the country and mountains and never get near the cities and tourist spots, but that wouldn't avoid the contact with other travelers at security, airplanes, and customs. A friend suggested I hire a private charter flight. Ha! Maybe if he pays for it.

JKJ

[mike stenson]

We've already considered that, thanks. Several things on our list are already closed, at least for now. This was to be our fifth trip or sixth to Italy so it's not a missed lifetime opportunity if it doesn't happen, although it might be more disappointing for the guest we were taking who has not yet visited.

My wife said this morning that we could easily spend the whole trip driving and touring across the country and mountains and never get near the cities and tourist spots, but that wouldn't avoid the contact with other travelers at security, airplanes, and customs. A friend suggested I hire a private charter flight. Ha! Maybe if he pays for it.

JKJ

I'd start to also pay attention to the other European (not just EU zone) countries policies, rather than just the US. There are at least one or two that require a quarantine when returning from Italy.

[Rod Sheridan]

The SARS epidemic in Toronto was in my neighbourhood, and engulfed the hospital a block from home.

That was a scary one because it took us some time to diagnose what was going on.

I don't want to minimize the Covid 19 threat, however in Canada we've had approximately 12 cases and no deaths. If I'm understanding what I've read, California may have had the first NA case of transmission in NA.

My daughter is a nurse in Toronto, so far they're using standard controls and no healthcare workers have contracted the disease, sounds like knowledge gained from other events is working.

It's hard for Canadians to understand the details of your healthcare system because we lack experience with it. If you go to a hospital or clinic does a diagnostic test for Covid 19 cost you any out of pocket money?

Regards, Rod.

P.S. Funny timing, I came across a copy of Jack London's book "The Scarlet Plague" a couple of months ago, I had never read it before then.

[mike stenson]

It's hard for Canadians to understand the details of your healthcare system because we lack experience with it. If you go to a hospital or clinic does a diagnostic test for Covid 19 cost you any out of pocket money?
.

The answer is, it depends. Generally speaking, yes everything costs out of pocket money in the US.

[Edwin Santos]

It's hard for Canadians to understand the details of your healthcare system because we lack experience with it. If you go to a hospital or clinic does a diagnostic test for Covid 19 cost you any out of pocket money?





The answer is, it depends. Generally speaking, yes everything costs out of pocket money in the US.

True, and there are pluses and minuses both ways.
For example, it is not good when a person who is symptomatic foregoes professional attention due to cost.
On the other hand, when there is no cost barrier, the system can get overwhelmed with the "worried well".
This is what is happening at the moment in Japan, where they have nationalized universal coverage healthcare for their citizens. They are putting out public announcements trying to urge people to avoid going to the doctor or hospital unnecessarily.

[Mel Fulks]

Well, the health pros have made some big mistakes. If you don't believe me ,ask the owners of a certain beer company.

[Rod Sheridan]

The answer is, it depends. Generally speaking, yes everything costs out of pocket money in the US.

Thanks for answering that, I wasn't sure what the answer would be..........Rod.

[Rod Sheridan]

Thanks for the answer............Rod.

[Mark Bolton]

If you go to a hospital or clinic does a diagnostic test for Covid 19 cost you any out of pocket money?

Everything here costs money. It may be out of your pocket prior to, at the time of, or later.. but it all costs money. A lot more for some than others.

[Pat Barry]

Seems that ALL facemasks are sold out at Costco, Menards, Home Depot, CVS, Walgreens etc in my area of town.

[Rod Sheridan]

Seems that ALL facemasks are sold out at Costco, Menards, Home Depot, CVS, Walgreens etc in my area of town.
Of isn't it since you're only meant to wear the mask if have an illness. (Prevents you from coughing or sneezing droplets onto other people).

My daughter is a nurse in ER, the info provided to them through the infection control group is that most people don't wear a mask correctly or touch their face with their hands, negating the mask protection....Rod.

[Pat Barry]

Of isn't it since you're only meant to wear the mask if have an illness. (Prevents you from coughing or sneezing droplets onto other people).

My daughter is a nurse in ER, the info provided to them through the infection control group is that most people don't wear a mask correctly or touch their face with their hands, negating the mask protection....Rod.

I've heard similar sentiments about the efficacy of the masks. Most of the ones sold at HD, Menards, Etc are designed to prevent dust inhalation anyway and not viruses. No matter, they are gone. I guess people either don't know better or figure anything is better than nothing. Also, Amazon was supposedly looking into hugr recent price increases.

[Doug Garson]

Rod, I've heard it said quite often that people wear the mask wrong, never understood how you wear it wrong. I understand that it makes more sense for those who are sick to wear masks to avoid spreading the virus and the virus is more often spread by touching a contaminated surface and then touching your nose, mouth or eyes than breathing in airborne virus.

[Doug Garson]

Well, the health pros have made some big mistakes. If you don't believe me ,ask the owners of a certain beer company.
OK, I'm curious what beer company and what's the story?

[Peter Kelly]

That is incorrect. A number of the dead were young healthy people. For example, the thirty something year old physician trying to treat patients in Wuhan.Liu Zhiming, 51, director of Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/director-of-wuhan-hospital-dies-of-coronavirus-as-infections-mount-in-china/2020/02/21/9bc3a720-52a4-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html), Li Wenliang, 33, ophthalmologist and coronavirus whistleblower at Wuhan Central Hospital (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang) to name a couple.

Both were reported to be in decent health prior to contracting the virus.

[Mel Fulks]

OK, I'm curious what beer company and what's the story?
CORONA beer. I'm betting sales are down. Would not be the first time some like named product took a hit.

[Mel Fulks]

Just looked it up. Sales are way down.

[mike stenson]

CORONA beer. I'm betting sales are down. Would not be the first time some like named product took a hit.
So, because people are stupid.

[Doug Garson]

CORONA beer. I'm betting sales are down. Would not be the first time some like named product took a hit.
OK, but not a big mistake by the health pros, just an unfortunate choice of names by the company and as Mike said the reaction of a bunch of stupid people relating the name of a beer to an unrelated virus.

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

A few years ago, I read about the influenza death tolls in Philadelphia in the past. 10% of the city population in 1787. In the winter of 1918 to 1919, there were not enough healthy grave diggers and corpses were stacked in warehouses until they could be buried, sometimes weeks while the ground was frozen. Whole families were wiped out.

I know that the CDC has been constantly planning for the even of a Pandemic. But who knows if the experts left some consideration out that could prove catastrophic. I hate to depend on the government to protect us (Like so many Germans in the 1930's trusted their government to protect them) So far some of the measures seem like overkill, but we don't know enough about it. My wife treats people with Corona virus at the hospital. But so far no one with the Chinese variant. (yes Corona refers to a family of viruses, not just one.) When I was six years old, my father and I got the mumps at the same time. The city came by and quarantined the entire household. relatives brought groceries and set them on the porch and left. The quarantine lasted over a week. The doctor finally came by and cleared the quarantine, yet kids in the neighborhood were not permitted to us for another few weeks by their parents. Apparently there was a fairly stiff fine for breaking quarantine. I live back a long lane isolated from the rest of the community. I have three freezers full of food. I could get along quite well in a quarantine. The problem would be that my Mrs. can be called in for emergencies and when the facilities are at maximum patient load. They are at that today without the Chinese corona virus. Our health care system is bogged down to capacity with drug overdoses and other self destructive people. The number of extremely obese patients has sky rocketed. She had two over 500 pounds last week. They refuse to take their meds, and know they will end up in the hospital where they get waited on hand and foot. (usually at tax payer expense)

[mike stenson]

(Like so many Germans in the 1930's trusted their government to protect them)

This is probably a bad place to go.. especially since I'm also German (and not as in German heritage). You would likely not like where that topic leads.

For those confused about the name, corona is Latin for crown. Since Spanish is derived, it also means crown. It describes the virus shape.

[Mel Fulks]

The beer people had the name first. Of course the health pros are at fault. Naming stuff is a BIG deal.

[Alan Rutherford]

Coronavirus: Should Americans be worried? (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51649897)

FDA Warns Coronavirus Outbreak May Disrupt Supply of Critical Medical Products (https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2761949)

Fight against virus at 'decisive point' - WHO (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51655133)

There's a lot to worry about here (look at the market). Getting sick is only part of it although my age group is a big contributor to the grimmer statistics and it's hard to ignore that.


.... Amazon was supposedly looking into hugr recent price increases.

At least you can still buy respirators if you're wealthy enough. I propose a new sub-forum for DIY facemasks. Or maybe a subsection under shop-made tools & machines.

426914

[Stewie Simpson]

True, and there are pluses and minuses both ways.
For example, it is not good when a person who is symptomatic foregoes professional attention due to cost.
On the other hand, when there is no cost barrier, the system can get overwhelmed with the "worried well".
This is what is happening at the moment in Japan, where they have nationalized universal coverage healthcare for their citizens. They are putting out public announcements trying to urge people to avoid going to the doctor or hospital unnecessarily.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2014/06/16/once-again-u-s-has-most-expensive-least-effective-health-care-system-in-survey/#comments-wrapper

[Malcolm McLeod]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2014/06/16/once-again-u-s-has-most-expensive-least-effective-health-care-system-in-survey/#comments-wrapper

6 years old article from a source desperate to stay relevant (and read).

[Doug Dawson]

Normally I would step back, but this is important and can get dangerous with misinformation.

We are only gathering data now on who is most vulnerable. This is not necessarily true of COVID-19. It's dangerous. Period. Full stop.


My information comes from the New York Times, which has had strong ongoing coverage of this since the beginning. If they are wrong, so be it, it wouldn't be the first time. (Hello Judith Miller.) But don't spread panic.

[William Chain]

I work in NIH and NSF funded laboratories. The NYT has what is publicly disseminated, and a lot of it isn't coming from US govt sources and from the ridiculous edicts being handed down now, the data will be politically influenced and/or otherwise distorted. The data just isn't thick enough yet to say anything other than the usual platitudes. The data surely looks like those in older age brackets are more vulnerable (which ...yeh...) but the brackets at this point are as focused as ages 30-79. That isn't exactly great yet.

And for the record, the masks everyone is buying don't do much. They just don't. I always chuckle when I see folks running down the street with those on.


My information comes from the New York Times, which has had strong ongoing coverage of this since the beginning. If they are wrong, so be it, it wouldn't be the first time. (Hello Judith Miller.) But don't spread panic.

[Frederick Skelly]

I try to keep in mind that the news media often fans the flames. I mean, they have a vested interest in creating a certain level of fear. People watch/read more and they sell more ads, etc.

With that said, there are several well known pandemics that killed millions. The spanish flu near the end of WW-I killed many millions worldwide. And there was the swine flu 50 years later. So pandemics do happen.

I'm taking reasonable precautions - washing hands more frequently, staying off of airplanes for now, etc. That's prudent and easy, so why not?

[Doug Dawson]

I work in NIH and NSF funded laboratories. The NYT has what is publicly disseminated

Let this not be perceived as implying that the NYT is publishing the press releases of interested parties. :^) Their investigative prowess is formidable, and this is a huge story.

If you have inside information, they do have a tip line on their homepage.

[Doug Dawson]

I try to keep in mind that the news media often fans the flames. I mean, they have a vested interest in creating a certain level of fear. People watch/read more and they sell more ads, etc.

With that said, there are several well known pandemics that killed millions. The spanish flu near the end of WW-I killed many millions worldwide. And there was the swine flu 50 years later. So pandemics do happen.


It depends on what news media you're looking at. Some of them are more biased/sensationalist than others.

On the spanish flu, Gina Kolata wrote an excellent book on this 20 years ago, called "Flu", that nicely sums up that situation, and refers to other resources for deeper research on the part of the reader.

[Doug Dawson]

At least you can still buy respirators if you're wealthy enough.

If you're a conscientious woodworker, you already _have_ respirators and dust masks etc.

[Jim Koepke]

OK, I'm curious what beer company and what's the story?


CORONA beer. I'm betting sales are down. Would not be the first time some like named product took a hit.

426944

Down the drain.

jtk

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

This is probably a bad place to go.. especially since I'm also German (and not as in German heritage). You would likely not like where that topic leads.

For those confused about the name, corona is Latin for crown. Since Spanish is derived, it also means crown. It describes the virus shape.

Yes perhaps the illustration of "I'm from the government and I am here to help you" Nearly always foretells some catastrophe

I certainly do not know enough about it to form a plan, other than isolating myself. Apparently there is a slightly effective vaccine which my wife called RSV panel 1, but preliminary anecdotal reports show it does somewhat reduce the effects of the Chinese variant. Apparently they had a bulletin at the hospital about it yesterday. Vaccination is mandatory for all hospital employees.

On another note, I was at Harbor Freight yesterday and all dust masks and respirators were sold out. Just sayin.

[Mark Blatter]

For better or worse, my wife and I are off to Mexico in four days. Mexico has not reported any cases yet, so I hope we can get in and out without and issues.

For those with trips planned, rather than cancel now, I suggest you wait until closer to see what happens. If it gets bad in Italy, the entire country may be set up as quarantined and the airlines will give refunds. If you just cancel, you won't get much back.

My family and I have been playing a board game called Pandemic. Interesting to see how random events in the game, and a few cards played in the right order can either kill you or let you win.

[Bill Carey]

I've gone thru this entire thread and was struck by a common thought. Information: where to get it and who do you trust. I also noticed this thread - about a possibly apocalyptic end of the universe - was considerably more calm and level headed than any sharpening thread I've ever read here. Says something about us - just not sure what.... :D

IMHO:
"I'm from the gov and I'm here to help": with the constant denigration of science from this administration, and my former governor in charge of "messaging", I'll be taking everything they say with a couple of cy's of salt. The CDC site seems to have reasonable info, but Pence's influence remains to be seen
TV: this is where the real fear mongering takes place. I find all of TV to be biased in one way or another, or simply out to sell shit. So as a source of info: worthless
WHO: one of the best sources of info, IMHO.
Newspapers: NYT, WP, San Fran Bee, Chi Trib - I guess there is an effort there to be responsible, and keep politics out of it, but they succeed to varying degrees: good for an overview, and to understand different areas of the country.
Facebook, twitter, etc: worse than worthless. Actually dangerous.

So who do you trust to give you the skinny on whats happening? What sources do you find to be responsible and informed and smart?

[Andrew Joiner]

Facebook, twitter, etc: worse than worthless. Actually dangerous.

So who do you trust to give you the skinny on whats happening? What sources do you find to be responsible and informed and smart?

I like NPR. No adds. They don't seem to take sides on issues much. Just information. https://www.npr.org/sections/news/

[Edwin Santos]

The Rodeo-Chediski fire happened years ago in Arizona, the largest wildfire to ever ravage the state at the time.
It got large enough that there was a lot of panic and hysteria, so I remember vividly that the firefighting effort organized a central command of some type, in the field, and from there this one hands-on veteran firefighter guy would give a press press briefing twice per day.
It wasn't a long briefing; he rattled off the current status, weather conditions, changes since the prior briefing, the day's goals, who should evacuate, who should be concerned, etc, followed by a short Q&A period.
These briefings cut off all opportunity for misinformation and speculation among news agencies. And I think it helped that the briefings were from the dusty veteran firefighter, not a polished spokesperson or a politician.

So why can't the CDC do something similar? A daily or twice daily briefing from a credible scientist or team of experienced professionals? Every news outlet should broadcast or livestream it, and so you can hear the information directly for yourself. Is this too much to ask?

Edwin

[Bill Carey]

I like NPR. No adds. They don't seem to take sides on issues much. Just information. https://www.npr.org/sections/news/


yes - I forgot them. Agree.

[Pat Barry]

World Health Organization has had some press conferences on YouTube. This is as close to unbiased, fact based information that I have seen. Live now actually. Unfortunately, CDC and other US based information sources are being restricted due to apparently political motives.

[Edwin Santos]

World Health Organization has had some press conferences on YouTube. This is as close to unbiased, fact based information that I have seen. Live now actually. Unfortunately, CDC and other US based information sources are being restricted due to apparently political motives.

Well this is too bad. I feel the WHO briefings are just too broad and global to respond to the concerns of a resident of a particular city in a particular state in a particular country. Like I say above, it just creates a large gap within which misinformation can run amok, which then helps fuel unnecessary panic. Just look at this thread. The amount of misinformation is remarkable. Misinformation grows in the absence of credible, accurate information.

[Bill Carey]

Well this is too bad. I feel the WHO briefings are just too broad and global to respond to the concerns of a resident of a particular city in a particular state in a particular country. Like I say above, it just creates a large gap within which misinformation can run amok, which then helps fuel unnecessary panic. Just look at this thread. The amount of misinformation is remarkable.


Which is why I asked about the sources of info that you trust - all the info in this thread is coming from somewhere. And having press conferences like the Rodeo-Chediski fire ones you mention makes too much sense. Politics will not let that happen.

Out of curiosity, I checked the Indiana State Dept of Health, and they have a decent amount of info that ties back to the CDC. The lead on the site is preventing drug overdoses, 2nd is coronavirus.

[Mike Henderson]

Sure hope you bought trip insurance! Soon, if not already, trip insurance won't be available to lots of destinations.

Trip insurance only covers certain events. If you're afraid to take the trip - but the trip is held - trip insurance is unlikely to cover you. If the tour operator cancels the trip, trip insurance will generally not pay (check your trip insurance but most of them will not pay if the tour operator cancels). If the tour operator cancels the trip you have to look to the tour operator for relief and most will only give you credit on a future tour.

Mike

[Mel Fulks]

I don't think info is missing. I think I've heard enough to keep breathing. If you are able to spot baloney ....then you
must be getting good info.

[Jon Nuckles]

If I'm understanding what I've read, California may have had the first NA case of transmission in NA.

We have had cases of transmission in the U.S. before. I think that the California case is the first one where they haven't been able to figure out who transmitted it to the patient.

Edited to add:

I looked up the story. Here's the summary:
"A person in California who was not exposed to anyone known to be infected with the coronavirus, and had not traveled to countries in which the virus is circulating, has tested positive for the infection."

[Tom M King]

Sounds like it's hitting smokers the hardest. I tried to find out if the Doctors who died from it were smokers, but didn't see any information. It would not surprise me to hear that they were. I have heard a lot about completely healthy people dying from it, but also understand that some people who smoke think that they are completely healthy. Only a little information has come out that some people who didn't take it hard at all, were non-smokers. No comprehensive studies yet.

One thing that did show up in each thing I read about it, said that the smoking rate in China is much higher than here.

[Doug Dawson]

Sounds like it's hitting smokers the hardest. I tried to find out if the Doctors who died from it were smokers, but didn't see any information. It would not surprise me to hear that they were. I have heard a lot about completely healthy people dying from it, but also understand that some people who smoke think that they are completely healthy. Only a little information has come out that some people who didn't take it hard at all, were non-smokers. No comprehensive studies yet.

One thing that did show up in each thing I read about it, said that the smoking rate in China is much higher than here.

What does smoking have to do with it? How are you making this link? Yeah the chinese smoke a lot, but correlation is not causation. They also eat some really weird stuff, and that's how this got started.

[Tom M King]

I just did some Googling, and the first thing that came up was about smokers being the most vulnerable. It's a respiratory virus. My Google question didn't have anything related to smoking in it, but the top several links brought that up to start with. Once I saw that, I tried to find out if the Doctors who died from it had been smokers, but as I stated, I didn't find any information. I'm not making it up.

I didn't say it originated with smokers, but simply from my initial reading, that it appeared to be hitting smokers the hardest.

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

This from Yahoo Germany: The novel corona virus has now reached numerous federal states. The first infection was confirmed in Hamburg on Friday night. A total of 20 other new infections have also been announced in North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg, Hesse and Bavaria since the previous evening. In Heinsberg / NRW alone, around 1,000 people are quarantined. Germany's industry fears the effects of the economy, German authorities are extending their precautions.

[Bill Dufour]

I heard today that Clorox stock price is going up.
Bil lD

[Doug Dawson]

I heard today that Clorox stock price is going up.


"I can't swim!"

"Don't worry, the fall will kill you."

[Lee Schierer]

[B]

At least you can still buy respirators if you're wealthy enough. I propose a new sub-forum for DIY facemasks. Or maybe a subsection under shop-made tools & machines.

426914

Apparently you didn't read that the $1188.78 price is for 80 packages of 20 masks .....$14.85 for 20 dust masks isn't a bad price.

[Doug Garson]

Apparently you didn't read that the $1188.78 price is for 80 packages of 20 masks .....$14.85 for 20 dust masks isn't a bad price.
Unless you compare it to Amazon.ca price of $99.99 Cnd for one box of 20 masks or $5 Cnd or about $3.75 US each.

[Doug Dawson]

Unless you compare it to Amazon.ca price of $99.99 Cnd for one box of 20 masks or $5 Cnd or about $3.75 US each.

Slightly higher in Canada. 11:30 in Newfoundland.

[Alan Rutherford]

...So why can't the CDC do something similar? A daily or twice daily briefing from a credible scientist or team of experienced professionals? ...

Because they've been told not to. All information is to be filtered through the Vice President.

[Alan Rutherford]

Apparently you didn't read that the $1188.78 price is for 80 packages of 20 masks .....$14.85 for 20 dust masks isn't a bad price.

It says 4 packs of 20 (80 masks). That's $14.85 for one mask. Plus shipping. I didn't spend any time looking for the worst example and most masks were listed as out of stock.

Interestingly, I just took a quick look to see how bad the supply is today and saw no "out of stock" listings on the first page or two and the prices were not exhorbitant. However, none were listed as eligible for Prime, which I take to mean they won't be delivered in two days and maybe not for a very long time.

[Doug Garson]

The ones I looked up on Amazon.ca were for delivery March 4-6 so not bad. But I just checked and delivery is $309 so I guess I was wrong and it's not such a better deal after all, my apologies.

[jeff norris 2011]

Because they've been told not to. All information is to be filtered through the Vice President.

Yes and through this they are hoping to control the ancillary damage. Funny thing is they may be right in theory (though not in practice).

So far the biggest damage the virus has done has been to economy. I know people will say the economy does not matter when lives are at stake, but the economy and health have been proven to be very closely linked. Panic over the virus could prove to do more damage than the virus itself.

Sad thought that the government does not think the people are smart enough to able to get unfiltered, unspun information.

[Stewie Simpson]

Because they've been told not to. All information is to be filtered through the Vice President.


Its likely the Vise President has the track record to take on that responsibility; :confused: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-mike-pence-science-smoking-hiv-outbreak/

[Rob Luter]

I've been able to glean these statistics from a number of reliable sources. I think it paints a pretty clear picture.

The virus has a mortality rate of 0.2% for people between the ages of 10-39, 0.4% for people between the ages of 40-49, and 1.3% for people between 50-59. The mortality rate among individuals older than 60 is higher, but could be due to factors such as pre-existing medical conditions, particularly conditions related to smoking. People between the ages of 60-69 have a mortality rate of 3.6%, people between 70-79 have a mortality rate of 8%, and people over the age of 80 have a mortality rate of 14.8%.

According to the CDC, reports indicate that young children “generally” present mild symptoms if they do contract the virus. About 80% of people who contract coronavirus only exhibit mild symptoms.

I'm avoiding China and Iran, washing my hands frequently, and staying off planes for the foreseeable future.

[Curt Harms]

I've been able to glean these statistics from a number of reliable sources. I think it paints a pretty clear picture.

The virus has a mortality rate of 0.2% for people between the ages of 10-39, 0.4% for people between the ages of 40-49, and 1.3% for people between 50-59. The mortality rate among individuals older than 60 is higher, but could be due to factors such as pre-existing medical conditions, particularly conditions related to smoking. People between the ages of 60-69 have a mortality rate of 3.6%, people between 70-79 have a mortality rate of 8%, and people over the age of 80 have a mortality rate of 14.8%.

According to the CDC, reports indicate that young children “generally” present mild symptoms if they do contract the virus. About 80% of people who contract coronavirus only exhibit mild symptoms.

I'm avoiding China and Iran, washing my hands frequently, and staying off planes for the foreseeable future.

Pretty sensible position to take. As far as the stock market, I wonder if it's been overvalued and just needed an excuse to correct. I'm sure there'll be some effect on the world's economy due to restrictions on travel and trade but hardly the Armageddon some seem to prefer.

[Stan Calow]

There's plenty of solid factual information on the CDC website, and they were doing regular press briefings that anyone could call in to, or listen on the website. Until now, anyway. But they don't control the media and cant push info out without the filter of a scientifically illiterate journalists who want to spin things and add pundit speculation to everything.

The whole public health community from the feds down to hospitals, have been talking and planning for pandemics for a couple of decades now. There have been many exercises at the national, state and local levels over the years, and public meetings and efforts to promote planning by businesses. It just didn't interest the public to know, and no politician ever got elected by saying we need to be prepared for any such event. And of course nobody wants to actually fully fund these kind of efforts because that takes tax money.

If this pandemic fizzles out, it wont be because of leadership, it will be from natural causes (the attenuation of viruses) and the hard work of the thousands of public health workers trying to cut it off. The next one will be along soon enough.

[Mark Rainey]

I am concerned about the Coronavirus as many are. Many of us woodworkers are older men. Wood dust has been an issue of frequent discussion. I have had some issues with coughing after woodworking. I am now focusing on keeping a clean shop, cleaning my filters, and wearing a mask when the dust is flying. I want my lungs to be in good shape if I get the infection.

[Mel Fulks]

It's a bad thing. But it's being handled and I think people understand they need to be careful; yes, that covers a lot.
Of course it's going to fizzle out. Jonas Salk ,and others, have stopped terrible medical problems that did not fizzle.

[Kev Williams]

Just found out only minutes ago- 2nd or 3rd hand and I haven't researched it much yet- that some guy with the virus in California decided to leave the hospital and go back home...not sure how he got here but supposedly he's in the hospital right next door to the hotel where our granddaughter, her boyfriend and our first great-grandchild are living, which is only 3 miles from us, too close for comfort...

[Bert Kemp]

I take precautions, don't go out as much, avoid contact with lrg groups as much as possible, wipe down the grocery carts and use hand sanitizer a lot LOL

[Mike Henderson]

It's a bad thing. But it's being handled and I think people understand they need to be careful; yes, that covers a lot.
Of course it's going to fizzle out. Jonas Salk ,and others, have stopped terrible medical problems that did not fizzle.

Like all epidemics it will run its course. But the way it stops is that enough people have contracted the illness and developed an immunity to it. Then you have "herd immunity" (like with vaccines) and the transmission stops.

Also, most diseases become less virulent over time. The more virulent versions kill their hosts so they don't get transmitted. The less virulent just make the host ill and that host passes the disease along to others.

Maybe they'll develop a vaccine but I sort of doubt if that can be done fast enough to stop the epidemic. I really doubt if this can be stopped in the US or anywhere else. It'll just have to run it's course.

Mike

[I remember as a kid wondering why more people didn't get polio. The answer is that a lot of people did get polio but the disease was just a cold for most of them. Only a small percentage developed the paralytic symptoms. I wouldn't be surprised if I contracted it as a child but didn't have the serious version. I never got the vaccine until I went in the Army.

For that matter, have you ever wondered why the polio outbreaks only started in the 20th Century? Polio has been around forever but we didn't have summer outbreaks in the 1800's.]

[Steve Demuth]

Like all epidemics it will run its course. But the way it stops is that enough people have contracted the illness and developed an immunity to it. Then you have "herd immunity" (like with vaccines) and the transmission stops.

Maybe. The common cold is caused by a group of coronaviruses, and induces immunity very poorly. It Is not unreasonable to imagine the one behaving similarly. All speculative until the virus is better understood.

[John K Jordan]

Maybe. The common cold is caused by a group of coronaviruses, and induces immunity very poorly. It Is not unreasonable to imagine the one behaving similarly. All speculative until the virus is better understood.

Hmm... When I started working with kindergartners 25 years ago I caught every cold that came through. After a couple of years I got colds only rarely. Maybe a coincidence?

[Aiden Pettengill]

So true! My mom works with kids every day for her work and NEVER gets sick EVER.:D

[Curt Harms]

Sad thought that the government does not think the people are smart enough to able to get unfiltered, unspun information.

In this case, the government is right I think. I know some people that have absolute confidence in certain sources and reject all others. Those certain sources are not umm, infallible:rolleyes: So not able to recognize unfiltered unspun information when they hear/see it.

[Curt Harms]

What does smoking have to do with it? How are you making this link? Yeah the chinese smoke a lot, but correlation is not causation. They also eat some really weird stuff, and that's how this got started.

I suspect the smoking link might be because smokers' lungs have 2 strikes against them before coming down with a nasty virus.

[Steve Demuth]

Hmm... When I started working with kindergartners 25 years ago I caught every cold that came through. After a couple of years I got colds only rarely. Maybe a coincidence?

Which is why I said "poorly." It's not that you don't become immune to a particular strain, but that coronoviruses, evolve new strains easily as they course through populations. So it's not impossible that you get Covid-19 more than once.

I'm not trying to be overly alarmist, but it's just not known yet how this virus will behave.

[John K Jordan]

Which is why I said "poorly." ...

I'm not trying to be overly alarmist, but it's just not known yet how this virus will behave.

The word "poorly" is subjective and could perhaps be accompanied by references, but caution is always good, especially now. And it is certainly true that only time will tell how this virus will work.

If things get very bad locally at least some woodworkers have professional grade industrial respirators on hand. I have a bunch of 3M 1/2 face and two full-face respirators, a supply of both P100 and organic vapor filter cartridges, boxes and packages of disposable masks for shop visitors, nitrile gloves, and tyvec coveralls for shop and farm use. I suspect a lot here have such gear in their shops.

JKJ

[Rob Luter]

Its likely the Vise President has the track record to take on that responsibility; :confused: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-mike-pence-science-smoking-hiv-outbreak/

Another point of view, with some interesting commentary about the Vice President. https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-drew-media-needs-to-shut-up-about-coronavirus-youre-more-likely-to-die-of-influenza

[Ole Anderson]

A pandemic these days is simply not going to have the devastative affects of those from the past because of our current knowledge base and the work of millions of trained health care workers worldwide. As Dr. Drew said where is the media in telling everyone to simply get a flu shot and wash your hands to help reduce our chances of adding to the actual 16,000 flu deaths in the US annually? I suppose in defense of the news media, COVID-19 is new, influenza is not. Hence the word "news".

Had to fly from Flint to Sarasota yesterday with a layover in Atlanta. I saw one mask on our plane and one family of 4 at the Atlanta airport with masks. That was it. I guess most are heeding the advice that masks aren't needed at this point. But unlike the cruise ships where the mantra is " washee washee" and you see crew constantly wiping down handrails and you see hand sanitizer dispensers everywhere, I saw no such action at the airport. Might make sense to at least do some basic precautions to help protect the public.

[Doug Garson]

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't airports in the US federal properties? So what does the lack of basic precautions (providing hand sanitizers and wiping down handrails) say about the federal government response to the virus?

[Jim Koepke]

As Dr. Drew said where is the media in telling everyone to simply get a flu shot and wash your hands to help reduce our chances of adding to the actual 16,000 flu deaths in the US annually?

My local TV stations have had flu shot recommendations and announcements about getting flu shots and other healthy practices. It just isn't as exciting as a story of people being quarantined or stuck on a cruise ship.

Flu shot recommendation and health message maybe five or ten seconds of story and graphics.

Story about a cruise ship being held out of port for quarantine tends to get a bit more time and video.

The Daily Wire story made me lose interest when Dr. Drew called reporting on corona virus, "Fake News."

Calling something that is taking place "Fake News" or a "Hoax" is not going to solve a disease or overcome mass hysteria.

Dr. Drew implies that he feels the media should be silent on the corona virus. During my past few visits to public restrooms and the gym, more people have been washing their hands and taking the time to wipe down the gym equipment after use. To me the uptick of public awareness and action from media coverage is welcome.

His praise of Mike Pence's "solution" to the opiate and HIV "problem" in Indiana:


That is fake news, we used to look at Indiana as a, as an appropriate response to the opiate epidemic we’re really responding to at the time, and they also had a massive effect on HIV and AIDS.

Maybe it depends on who the "we" might be, looking at Indiana's "appropriate response."

HIV spread in Indiana due to then Governor Pence's refusal to allow needle exchanges for drug users.

I am a praying man, but my choice would be to have unbiased medical help from professionals using science to heal me and not a prayer group.

It doesn't seem to be "Fake News" that six people have already died in my state.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-us-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-03-02/

jtk

[Prashun Patel]

I was scheduled to go to a conference in Anaheim W-F this week. normally, 50,000 attendees. 60% participants cancelled, then the event was cancelled.

[Malcolm McLeod]

... aren't airports in the US federal properties? ...

I can't speak for 'most' or even 'many' airports, but the large airports that I am familiar with are not federally owned. The Feds do dictate/specify/manage security for access (TSA), and of course manage the airspace (FAA).

As for the 'pandemic', in USA we've lost 6 total per last news I heard. Compare that to influenza average of 40-50 deaths per day in 2020. Media are fear mongers...perhaps?

[Jim Koepke]

As for the 'pandemic', in USA we've lost 6 total per last news I heard. Compare that to influenza average of 40-50 deaths per day in 2020. Media are fear mongers...perhaps?

How many flu cases compared to how many corona virus cases?

Should the media have kept quiet on this until it reaches more daily deaths than influenza?

From Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization:


"We have never before seen a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but which can also be contained with the right measures."

Is it wrong to think information via the media is one of the "right measures" to help contain this malady? If nothing else, maybe the raised awareness of the general public will lessen the severity of our normal flu season.

jtk

[Malcolm McLeod]

Jim, it sounds like you may be tracking case numbers for both flu and COVID-19 more closely than I. My point was that we (or at least the media) have seemingly become 'comfortable' with flu deaths - despite the numbers.

Media? I never mentioned 'kept quiet'. They can report data and leave an informed public. Or, they can spin data and cause a panic. We'll each have to pick our data sources and interpret it thru our own filters - and respond accordingly.

This seems a VERY popular thread, so for 'further study' I'd recommend "The Great Influenza" - John M. Barry (2004). We've come a long way.

All my best to those impacted,
M

[Jon Grider]

To answer the OP, I'm concerned but not going to submit to worry. I'll do what I can to prevent exposure but obviously there's much beyond our personal control. I believe there will be more pandemics coming maybe more than modern medicine can contain, and when it's my time I'm ready to meet my maker. Just hope to make a bit more wood dust before then. Thoughts and prayers to all that have been affected by this.

[Doug Dawson]

To answer the OP, I'm concerned but not going to submit to worry. I'll do what I can to prevent exposure but obviously there's much beyond our personal control. I believe there will be more pandemics coming maybe more than modern medicine can contain, and when it's my time I'm ready to meet my maker. Just hope to make a bit more wood dust before then. Thoughts and prayers to all that have been affected by this.

The way I think of it is, this is training wheels for _everybody_ for how to react to something more serious in the future. In that sense, even though it's awful that people have died, this is a valuable wakeup call.

[Brian Elfert]

There was an article on a local newspaper website today about Costco stores locally being completely wiped clean of toilet paper and paper towels since the Minnesota state government mentioned being prepared for an outbreak on earlier last week. (No, they did not say to stock up on TP and paper towels.) I was Target today and a lady had a cart overflowing with multiple packages of TP, paper towels, bottled water. She also had about a dozen packages of disinfectant wipes.

I may buy a little bit of extra food, but I really need more food anyhow. I rarely have more than three days of food on hand which is not a good habit. I admit I bought a big pack of TP today, but I will be out within a week and wanted to be sure I could get some.

[Doug Dawson]

There was an article on a local newspaper website today about Costco stores locally being completely wiped clean of toilet paper and paper towels since the Minnesota state government mentioned being prepared for an outbreak on earlier last week. (No, they did not say to stock up on TP and paper towels.) I was Target today and a lady had a cart overflowing with multiple packages of TP, paper towels, bottled water. She also had about a dozen packages of disinfectant wipes.

I may buy a little bit of extra food, but I really need more food anyhow. I rarely have more than three days of food on hand which is not a good habit. I admit I bought a big pack of TP today, but I will be out within a week and wanted to be sure I could get some.

Have you tried fasting? Fasting is good for you.

[Curt Harms]

I can't speak for 'most' or even 'many' airports, but the large airports that I am familiar with are not federally owned. The Feds do dictate/specify/manage security for access (TSA), and of course manage the airspace (FAA).

As for the 'pandemic', in USA we've lost 6 total per last news I heard. Compare that to influenza average of 40-50 deaths per day in 2020. Media are fear mongers...perhaps?

Re airports I think you're right. There's a 'land' side and 'air' side. The 'air' side has to meet federal specs, lights & markings, traffic control, weight bearing capacity etc. The 'land' side is more up to the locality excepting TSA required stuff. At least that's how I understand it.

[Pat Barry]

WHO reporting that worldwide death rate from coronavirus is now 3.4%! Thats pretty huge considering they are also saying most cases are mild. This disparity probably demonstrates best that the actual information about the source and spread of this virus is sorely lacking. To get better information there needs to be lots more testing but that has lots of cost involved. In other words, let sleeping dogs lie.

[Rod Sheridan]

WHO reporting that worldwide death rate from coronavirus is now 3.4%! Thats pretty huge considering they are also saying most cases are mild. This disparity probably demonstrates best that the actual information about the source and spread of this virus is sorely lacking. To get better information there needs to be lots more testing but that has lots of cost involved. In other words, let sleeping dogs lie.

Hi Pat, probably the issue is with the denominator, not the numerator.

While the number of deaths may be fairly accurate, I expect that the number of cases is grossly under-reported.

The US has a very small sample of tests, with a fairly significant number of deaths. In Canada we've had a larger number of tests yet no deaths.

More testing will help illuminate the issues........Rod.

[Pat Barry]

WHO reporting that worldwide death rate from coronavirus is now 3.4%! Thats pretty huge considering they are also saying most cases are mild. This disparity probably demonstrates best that the actual information about the source and spread of this virus is sorely lacking. To get better information there needs to be lots more testing but that has lots of cost involved. In other words, let sleeping dogs lie.


Hi Pat, probably the issue is with the denominator, not the numerator.

While the number of deaths may be fairly accurate, I expect that the number of cases is grossly under-reported.

The US has a very small sample of tests, with a fairly significant number of deaths. In Canada we've had a larger number of tests yet no deaths.

More testing will help illuminate the issues........Rod.

Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.

[Mike Henderson]

Some people have pointed to the influenza of 1918 as a prototype of this pandemic. One question I have is how did the influenza of 1918 terminate? It seems to have just stopped for some reason. One theory is that it mutated to a less virulent form and stayed around but didn't kill people. But it stopped all over the world, which would require it to mutate to a less virulent form in many places almost simultaneously. There wasn't as much travel in those days but even if it mutated to a less virulent form in one place and was carried to other places, why did that less virulent form replace the more virulent form? Maybe the less virulent form provided immunity to the more virulent form.

If so, perhaps this pandemic will go the same way.

Mike

[Rod Sheridan]

Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.

Agreed, however isn't that what we want (except for the panic of course)........regards, Rod.

[Edwin Santos]

Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.

More testing would definitely be helpful, but when I read the CDC website's info, it is obvious that so much about this virus is still unknown. Their website is full of statements like "it is thought that....might.....may be..... it is possible". This is with regard to critical questions like how the virus spreads, what are the symptoms, etc. I have heard that both at the early stages, and for some people in general, they can be infected and totally asymptomatic. In Japan where they have declared a state of emergency in Hokkaido, the regional health minister said the number of known infections in Hokkaido was (at that time) about 80, but number of asymptomatic infected people could be as high as 800. But then again it might not, but if it is, then you could see how the death rate % might be much much smaller than 3.4% due to a massively understated denominator as Rod says.

So we're all on a bit of a ride with a lot of unknowns. On the pessimist's side, this means the virus may be much more spread than we know.
On the optimist's side, the death rate may be much lower than thought, and for many people it may not be a particularly dangerous or lethal virus at all. Also in the optimist's camp are the reports that the cases in China are subsiding, and that people are being released from hospital, recovered.
The death toll in China, while sad, is microscopic considering the population density. And if the numbers really are dropping, it shows that containment can work.

When asked why he didn't actually show the shark until more than half way into the movie Jaws, Steven Spielberg replied that people are capable of scaring themselves more than he could ever scare them, so all he did was suggest the shark through music and other means, and then let human nature do the rest.

Edwin

[Roger Feeley]

Jim, good for you. Some might think that you are just looking out for #1 and that’s true. But you are also subtracting yourself from a pool of a possible vectors.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

We have a DIL who is a clinical pharmacist in a group of hospitals in the Central Valley of California. I just got home from visiting there for a week. The staff there have preparing for the possible spread of the this new version of the corona virus. That was the one point that she drove home to me multiple times when discussing this with her. There are multiple "versions" of this virus, some of which have been present in this country for years. It's just that this is the newest, relatively unknown version of the corona virus.

She did point out it wasn't quite as dangerous as it is being talked about by the media, in general. As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.

[John K Jordan]

...As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.

The balance is always tricky between risk and caution. Keep your cool but take precatutions.

A friend in Italy told me they decided today to close all schools until mid March. With the accelerating increase of both cases and deaths there this seems a reasonable precaution.

427382
Cases in Italy, 3/3/20

JKJ

[Alan Rutherford]

...She did point out it wasn't quite as dangerous as it is being talked about by the media, in general. As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.

With all due respect to your DIL, I am in the age group where the death rate, depending on the source of your information, could be as high as 20%. Yes, this will blow over. No, we won't all die, but some of us will. I've taken a lot of risks in my life but didn't live this long by being stupid or naive. (At least not too often.) If I were 30 I might not worry. At 80, I don't panic but some level of concern is just common sense.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[Ken Fitzgerald]

The balance is always tricky between risk and caution. Keep your cool but take precatutions.

A friend in Italy told me they decided today to close all schools until mid March. With the accelerating increase of both cases and deaths there this seems a reasonable precaution.

427382
Cases in Italy, 3/3/20

JKJ


With all due respect to your DIL, I am in the age group where the death rate, depending on the source of your information, could be as high as 20%. Yes, this will blow over. No, we won't all die, but some of us will. I've taken a lot of risks in my life but didn't live this long by being stupid or naive. (At least not too often.) If I were 30 I might not worry. At 80, I don't panic but some level of concern is just common sense.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Guys, at age 70, I am in the most affected age group too.

I agree with the stated school closures to try to stop the accelerated spread of the disease. That is a common sense action to take. As someone who worked in hospitals for 34 years, I don't go in public when I have a cold, running a fever and are contagious. I have cancelled doctor's appointments because I didn't want to spread what I had. That's common sense and not over reacting.

Yet, for everyone to run out and buy the entire world's supply on dust masks, toilet paper, food supplies, bottled water seems to be extreme to me. Some of the Costco shelves where they live in California were bare of personal/health items like hand sanitizers, etc. We arrived home at midnight Monday after being gone for 3 weeks. Yesterday my wife went shopping for basic groceries to restock the pantry and refrigerator. People were making such a run on the above items, Winco has restricted the number of such items each shopper can purchase as their suppliers can't keep up with the demand.

Remember the people who bought plastics and wrapped their homes over the fears of a dirty bomb after 9/11?

[Doug Dawson]

With all due respect to your DIL, I am in the age group where the death rate, depending on the source of your information, could be as high as 20%. Yes, this will blow over. No, we won't all die, but some of us will. I've taken a lot of risks in my life but didn't live this long by being stupid or naive. (At least not too often.) If I were 30 I might not worry. At 80, I don't panic but some level of concern is just common sense.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Thank you for that link. That was very informative.

[Ron Citerone]

Thank you for that link. That was very informative.

Yes it is.

I responded initially with bad info at the beginning of this thread. I am looking at the rates for people with Cardiovascular disease and thinking 10% is a big number. As a heart patient I will be hunkering down at home if it sweeps through my area. Until it does, life as usual I guess.

[Pat Barry]

Death rate in USA is 7% compared with 3.4% worldwide. Purely do to lack of testing to acknowledge the actual affected population. Downplay the problem?

USA.
159 cases
11 deaths
2 serious
6 critical
9 recovered

Source bnonews.com

[Adam Herman]

Death rate in USA is 7% compared with 3.4% worldwide. Purely do to lack of testing to acknowledge the actual affected population. Downplay the problem?

USA.
159 cases
11 deaths
2 serious
6 critical
9 recovered

Source bnonews.com

people here may be less likely to go to the doctor or, we may be a somewhat healthier society than a place like china, esp. in a city like Seattle, so most cases will be mild, and the ones that do go see a doc are worse.

very very few things are actual conspiracy.

[Rod Sheridan]

Death rate in USA is 7% compared with 3.4% worldwide. Purely do to lack of testing to acknowledge the actual affected population. Downplay the problem?

USA.
159 cases
11 deaths
2 serious
6 critical
9 recovered

Source bnonews.com

Thanks for that, so far in Canada we have 34 cases, no fatalities yet.........Rod.

[Erik Loza]

The balance is always tricky between risk and caution. Keep your cool but take precatutions.

A friend in Italy told me they decided today to close all schools until mid March. With the accelerating increase of both cases and deaths there this seems a reasonable precaution.

427382
Cases in Italy, 3/3/20

JKJ

The factory guys are telling me that it's crippled the manufacturing industry in Italy for the time being. All the cases appear to be in the north, which is the industrial region. Seems like it's a whole different ballgame in Europe versus here.

Erik

[Doug Dawson]

Thanks for that, so far in Canada we have 34 cases, no fatalities yet.........Rod.

Canadian beer isn't what it used to be, apparently the Molson variant is weaker. More recent developments point to a new variant emerging from the Netherlands, called the Heineken virus, as for the green hue presented. The one I'm really concerned about is the Modelo Dark virus, that one sounds scary.

[Pat Barry]

1st confirmed case of Covid19 just reported for my home county (Ramsey in Minnesota). As if folks here haven't already been in prepper mode, I'm wishing we had loaded up on supplies yesterday! Person came back from a cruise and got sick around Feb 25th. Just now got confirmed test results. They claim the person didn't go out much …

[Doug Dawson]

1st confirmed case of Covid19 just reported for my home county (Ramsey in Minnesota). As if folks here haven't already been in prepper mode, I'm wishing we had loaded up on supplies yesterday! Person came back from a cruise and got sick around Feb 25th. Just now got confirmed test results. They claim the person didn't go out much …

The SXSW festival here in Texas was cancelled late today, at a reported cost of $250million to Austin in lost business. They made the right decision (after weeks of dithering.) That's _nothing_ compared to the economic cost of quarantining the whole city.

[Nathan Johnson]

1st confirmed case of Covid19 just reported for my home county (Ramsey in Minnesota). As if folks here haven't already been in prepper mode, I'm wishing we had loaded up on supplies yesterday! Person came back from a cruise and got sick around Feb 25th. Just now got confirmed test results. They claim the person didn't go out much …

Ugh. The grocery store was out of blueberries. Damnit.

[Miles Evans]

As for me, I think it`s some sort of сonspiracy. Mass media want us all to fear this. This sure is a serious problem, but not as serious as they want us to consider.

[Pat Barry]

Ugh. The grocery store was out of blueberries. Damnit.

Superfood shortage

[John K Jordan]

Ugh. The grocery store was out of blueberries. Damnit.


Superfood shortage



I could send you some blueberries, Nathan. We went to Kroger in Oak Ridge TN yesterday. There were plenty of blueberries and almost everything else. They were out of hand sanitizer, though!


JKJ

[Rich Engelhardt]

This pretty much sums up my thoughts on it..

[Nathan Johnson]

I could send you some blueberries, Nathan. We went to Kroger in Oak Ridge TN yesterday. There were plenty of blueberries and almost everything else. They were out of hand sanitizer, though!


JKJ

A kind offer, indeed. Blueberries are my favorite and I eat them every morning.
I'll check another store today. They were out of hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes, but I didn't notice much else being short.

[Ken Fitzgerald]

I'd suggest that the same people who want to attack the media for "mass hysteria" would also attack them for failure to report a pandemic if one was happening.

It's a fine line between providing calming information and fanning flames of hysteria! Most of the time, it's the other guys perception or opinion on what it being portrayed.

[Jim Koepke]

As for me, I think it`s some sort of сonspiracy. Mass media want us all to fear this. This sure is a serious problem, but not as serious as they want us to consider.

It is difficult for me to imagine members of the media got together and decided to promote this story with a goal of causing mass hysteria.

Would it have been better to not inform the public about the canceling of major events? How would you like it if you checked into your hotel room in Austin, TX and not knowing the big event you were there to attend had been canceled?

Should we be left without information on areas with active outbreaks?

If you were visiting a family member at the nursing home in Washington state what would be the best way for you to learn of the outbreak?

In China they tried keeping this quiet. That didn't work.

jtk

[Bruce Volden]

As for me, I think it`s some sort of сonspiracy. Mass media want us all to fear this. This sure is a serious problem, but not as serious as they want us to consider.

Gotta say I think so too, the media wants to "play" us at every opportunity.
I have yet to see Alex Trebek pitching whole life funeral plans on Nickelodean:D:D

I could go on....

Bruce

[Larry Edgerton]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDhqltWQWbA&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR0GWYragIpx0EjzxR8T2g6L5_Bqdmg1nhrYWrn6J-yfRiGQ2LXGe3JK1ng

[Doug Dawson]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDhqltWQWbA&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR0GWYragIpx0EjzxR8T2g6L5_Bqdmg1nhrYWrn6J-yfRiGQ2LXGe3JK1ng

I think they're confusing the Wuhan virus with the Yeehaw virus.

[Wade Lippman]

The death rate is approximated as 2%. Contrast that with typical flu of 0.1% and coronavirus is 20x worse death rate than the flu.

Ed: There are currently 81,714 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,771 fatalities which equates to a 3.4% death rate

That is complete nonsense. It is everywhere; every country, every city.... Yet only 81,000 cases? It is obviously very contagious, but it seems to be infecting almost no one. When China said there were 4,000 cases, medical authorities in Hong Kong said the true number was 80,000. Nearly all were too mild to attract attention. Likewise, I am sure there are now a million or two. So 2700 fatalities is about the same as the flu.

[Aaron Rosenthal]

My daughter was injured on Wednesday at work, and I was out of town. Wife did the visiting.
We’re going to the hospital tonight to visit her in a few minutes, and I’ll be wearing a dust mask and nitrite gloves.
I’m 75, had have a light cough, but I’m more concerned about the fact that the very worst place to be during a contagious event is a germ ridden hospital.

[Wade Lippman]

We have a DIL who is a clinical pharmacist in a group of hospitals in the Central Valley of California. I just got home from visiting there for a week. The staff there have preparing for the possible spread of the this new version of the corona virus. That was the one point that she drove home to me multiple times when discussing this with her. There are multiple "versions" of this virus, some of which have been present in this country for years. It's just that this is the newest, relatively unknown version of the corona virus.

She did point out it wasn't quite as dangerous as it is being talked about by the media, in general. As often stated, fear sells and the human mind will blow things way out of proportion.

The many varieties of the common cold are all corona viruses. There are hundreds of variations. This is the Covid-19 virus; it is new only in that it never infected humans before. The Chinese eat wild animals and that encourages pathogens to jump the species barrier. Ebola came from Africans eating Chimps.

[Wade Lippman]

I heard today that Clorox stock price is going up.
Bil lD

My grandfather and his brother founded the company that makes Purell. He sold out for a pittance 60 years ago. Oh well.

[Bill Dufour]

My grandfather and his brother founded the company that makes Purell. He sold out for a pittance 60 years ago. Oh well.


Well the Gamble house looks to be nice and clean.
Bil l

[Jim Koepke]

I think they're confusing the Wuhan virus with the Yeehaw virus.

Isn't the program host (guy wearing headphones) renowned for his Yeehaw-ism?

jtk

[Jim Koepke]

The SXSW festival here in Texas was cancelled late today, at a reported cost of $250million to Austin in lost business. They made the right decision (after weeks of dithering.) That's _nothing_ compared to the economic cost of quarantining the whole city.

Large events like this filled with attendees from all over then returning home or traveling to other cities can become major vectors of illness.

Has anyone watched the movie Inferno?


That is complete nonsense. It is everywhere; every country, every city.... Yet only 81,000 cases? It is obviously very contagious, but it seems to be infecting almost no one. When China said there were 4,000 cases, medical authorities in Hong Kong said the true number was 80,000. Nearly all were too mild to attract attention. Likewise, I am sure there are now a million or two. So 2700 fatalities is about the same as the flu.

The numbers you quote from Pat's post are at least 4 days old. There have been many new cases reported since. Maybe if our testing comes online soon we will find more nonlethal cases to lower the percentage of fatality, maybe not.

jtk

[Perry Hilbert Jr]

Local nursing home was screening all visitors yesterday for temperatures. The nurse at the front desk was running some thermometer gizmo over everyone's foreheads checking for fevers. Another nurse questioned why the same thermometer gizmo was being used in contact with all the visitors without being even wiped off between uses. As in wouldn't they be helping to spread the disease? The nurse visitor told the nursing home worker, You are not touching me with that thing until you have wiped it with a disinfectant and created a big stir. Frankly it seems some measures are indeed counterproductive and would spread the disease. Then, Italy announces a curfew and quarantine of an entire geographical area. Interviewing the medical guy in charge, the doc says the disease there has mutated to another form. Does this Italian expert even know what he is saying? Not that I think Italians are medically ignorant, but if true, we have a whole lot more to worry about. Meanwhile the thing that is the Pa Secretary of health announces that "it is going to get far worse before it gets better" That should make people feel less panicky. Mean while the American death toll is like a dozen from Covid-19 and per the CDC, over 12,000 from regular flu.

[Ronald Blue]

Local nursing home was screening all visitors yesterday for temperatures. The nurse at the front desk was running some thermometer gizmo over everyone's foreheads checking for fevers. Another nurse questioned why the same thermometer gizmo was being used in contact with all the visitors without being even wiped off between uses. As in wouldn't they be helping to spread the disease? The nurse visitor told the nursing home worker, You are not touching me with that thing until you have wiped it with a disinfectant and created a big stir. Frankly it seems some measures are indeed counterproductive and would spread the disease. Then, Italy announces a curfew and quarantine of an entire geographical area. Interviewing the medical guy in charge, the doc says the disease there has mutated to another form. Does this Italian expert even know what he is saying? Not that I think Italians are medically ignorant, but if true, we have a whole lot more to worry about. Meanwhile the thing that is the Pa Secretary of health announces that "it is going to get far worse before it gets better" That should make people feel less panicky. Mean while the American death toll is like a dozen from Covid-19 and per the CDC, over 12,000 from regular flu.


As I understand it 11 of those twelve deaths are at a "retirement home" in Washington state where someone that returned from China with the virus and visited the home. All the deaths that I saw were at least 80's in age and probably weakened immune systems. With all the news there has been in the last 3 months about this I can't fathom the decision to visit such a place until you know your not a carrier or ill yourself. Ignorance or recklessness? A fine line I guess. Then I believe it was in Vermont someone tested positive and was advised to stay home. So what do they do? Go to some sort of gathering. SMH

[Curt Harms]

.................................................. ....
Meanwhile the thing that is the Pa Secretary of health announces that "it is going to get far worse before it gets better" That should make people feel less panicky. Mean while the American death toll is like a dozen from Covid-19 and per the CDC, over 12,000 from regular flu.

Yabbut how can you gain clicks, sell papers, increase eyes on various TV outlets if all ya got is 'regular flu'. Not to mention there are some who will attempt make economic mountains out of mole hills. Certainly the airline and hospitality industries have and will continue to take a hit. More hype = bigger hit = ZOMG there's a huge downturn on the way.

[Pete Staehling]

Thats the point. Without sufficient testing the death rate number will be over estimated. Unfortunately, in order to get a better estimate they need tons more testing. Testing costs money. More testing will identify more cases. More cases identified could cause increased panic, more quarantines, etc.

Then again we may be grossly under estimating both the number of cases and the number of deaths. There may be deaths being attributed to pneumonia, the flu, whatever, either because they slip through the cracks and are misdiagnosed or because there is an intentional effort to keep the number low to minimize panic. I tend to doubt that our government and healthcare system is capable of coordinating on anything so I doubt a conspiracy is the reason, but incompetence is never a bad bet.

[John K Jordan]

Are you starting to worry about Coronavirus yet?

Regardless of how cases are counted, the apparent current rate of new cases reported is reason for concern for thinking people.

These are worldwide cases outside of China reported over just the last three weeks.
427604
(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/)
Notice from the curve how the rate is increasing. Even a linear projection of the last 1/4 of that curve is enough to give pause, even to those promising a quick containment.

One count shows 105 new cases reported in the US in the last 24 hours, and that's with very little actual testing. Do a linear projection of that curve too and imagine what it could be like across the country in just a few weeks.
427605
(https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-map-confirmed-cases-2020-n1120686)

I also watch the situation in Italy since I was planning to go there in a few weeks and revisit a number of areas in northern and central Italy.
427606
The latest numbers this evening show about 1500 on top of this graph, giving about 7400 total. Of these, about 600 are reported as recovered, nearly 400 deaths.

I've decided to postpone my trip to Italy. Internal travel restrictions are increasing and most museums and things on our list like the Vatican are closed. And if I did go, I can imagine weeks in quarantine on return or even being denied rentry depending on the state of the official hysteria the end of May. My history of asthma, bronchitis, and occasional pneumonia (and age of 70) are other factors in my decision.

JKJ

[Bill Dufour]

Local couple is in the news for being on the ship to nowhere offshore off San Francisco. 20 people have been tested positive for the virus after they flew test kits out to the ship. They have not been tested. so they could be too early for symptoms.
The CDC forgot to use the federal quarantine time to ramp up production of test kits. I think the recent doubling of the CDC budget simply takes funding back to what it was pre McConnell actions. So it is not a increase it is just no longer being cut down.
Bil lD

[Mel Fulks]

No need for guessing what the government will do when we know what the mods must do. No one in government wants
to be known as the guy who did not think the threat required spending.

[Pat Barry]

Crazy thing about testing as it sits right now is the tests come from the CDC and they all have to go back to the CDC to be read. That's grossly inefficient. Terrible way to manage a nationwide outbreak such as this.

Ed: sounds like not all the tests need to go back to the CDC now as some hospitals and other labs can process the tests. Still extremely inefficient though and limited supply

[Jim Koepke]

Crazy thing about testing as it sits right now is the tests come from the CDC and they all have to go back to the CDC to be read. That's grossly inefficient. Terrible way to manage a nationwide outbreak such as this.

Maybe that is what is meant by "having it under control," under very tight control.

jtk

[jeff norris 2011]

As for testing the cruise ship with over 4000 souls on board was given 43 test kits. 21 people tested positive.

The numbers in the US will skyrocket, if and when test kits become available in enough numbers to truly monitor the cases.

[Mike Henderson]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon. The one saving grace is that most people who are positive for the virus are not symptomatic or only exhibit mild symptoms. Of course, that's little comfort to the people who come down with life-threatening symptoms.

Take precautions and hope you don't get a life-threatening case.

Mike

[Just think what this would be like if the virus killed 50% of the people it infected. The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).]

[Doug Dawson]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon. The one saving grace is that most people who are positive for the virus are not symptomatic or only exhibit mild symptoms. Of course, that's little comfort to the people who come down with life-threatening symptoms.

Take precautions and hope you don't get a life-threatening case.

Mike

[Just think what this would be like if the virus killed 50% of the people it infected. The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).]

In that sense this whole thing is a beneficial wake-up call for people to change their ways before another far more insidious thing comes along (like that will never happen.) Something has to change in our culture. It's not just the ancient custom of the handshake, the thing that bugs me the most is those "transaction terminals" and touchscreens at stores that require you to lay fingers on stuff that hundreds of other people touch every day, and they are _rarely_ cleaned. I just stop and stare (and did so long before this current situation arose.)

[Frederick Skelly]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon. The one saving grace is that most people who are positive for the virus are not symptomatic or only exhibit mild symptoms. Of course, that's little comfort to the people who come down with life-threatening symptoms.

Take precautions and hope you don't get a life-threatening case.

Mike

[Just think what this would be like if the virus killed 50% of the people it infected. The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).]

I agree with you Mike. This genie is out of the bottle and it's going to be everywhere before long. (Spring Break is coming to help that along.) We are lucky that __this time__ it isn't something like the plague or ebola.

I'm not in healthcare, so I may be way off base here. But I'm skeptical that we'll learn from this and do things better next time. From an average citizen's viewpoint, how much better/different is the govt response to this outbreak than SARS, etc? IDK. It would be great (reassuring!) if someone who actually works in public health could comment here on that.

[Jim Koepke]

The Black Death killed as much as 50% of Europe's population in the 14th century (just an estimate since there are no accurate records).

Fortunately mankind has learned much since then. People didn't have running water back then to keep their hands clean. Little was even known about the spread of disease at the time. Superstition also played a roll in the spread of the Black Death. Cats were thought to be in league with satanic forces and were killed. This left no predators for the rats who some believe were a main vector of the Black Death. Other sources say it was human to human via fleas and ticks living in the human population.

jtk

[Stephen Tashiro]

My belief is that it's too late to control the epidemic by isolating people. It's going to be in every community very soon.

It's always good advice to "Get your affairs in order". If there is no plague, there will still be traffic accidents.

Severe respiratory ailments put people on ventilators. People on ventilators are often so sick or sedated that they are not lucid. Hospitals will only keep illucid patients on ventilators for a month or so before they offer the choice of removing the patient from life support or transferring them to one of the few facilities in the country that offers long term care on ventilators. Make your wishes known, perhaps with a "living will". ( The situation won't necessarily be that you are unconscious. Illucid ventilator patients appear to have some conscious reactions.)

Declare beneficiaries for bank accounts and brokerage accounts. Keep in mind that when a CD rolls over, the beneficiaries of the old CD do not automatically transfer to the new CD. It helps the executor of the estate if the estate has cash to work with. A CD with no declared beneficiary will provide the estate with some funds.

In a will, if a person is to inherit a share and you want their family to inherit it if that person dies before you do, make it clear that the person gets the share "per stirpes".

[Rich Engelhardt]

Y'all keep talking about the Black Death - like it went away way back when.
Just like Leprosy - the Black Death is still among us....

[Curt Harms]

..................................................
I've decided to postpone my trip to Italy. Internal travel restrictions are increasing and most museums and things on our list like the Vatican are closed. And if I did go, I can imagine weeks in quarantine on return or even being denied rentry depending on the state of the official hysteria the end of May. My history of asthma, bronchitis, and occasional pneumonia (and age of 70) are other factors in my decision.

JKJ

Smart man. It seems like otherwise healthy people are not at significant risk. People with respiratory issues and other health concerns on the other hand need to minimize risk.

[Gregg Markowski]

I agree with you Mike. This genie is out of the bottle and it's going to be everywhere before long. (Spring Break is coming to help that along.) We are lucky that __this time__ it isn't something like the plague or ebola.

I'm not in healthcare, so I may be way off base here. But I'm skeptical that we'll learn from this and do things better next time. From an average citizen's viewpoint, how much better/different is the govt response to this outbreak than SARS, etc? IDK. It would be great (reassuring!) if someone who actually works in public health could comment here on that.


We are light years ahead of the response to SARS. Not even a close second. Someone else noted the symptoms don't show in people and THAT is the problem! They are contagious and not symptomatic...so they spread it everywhere not knowing any better.

[Pat Barry]

This morning, as per Coronavirus.Gov


"Combined with other reagents that CDC has procured, there are enough testing kits to test more than 75,000 people.
In addition, CDC has two laboratories conducting testing for the virus that causes COVID-19. CDC can test approximately 350 specimens per day."

Yesterday at the evening press conference the CDC persons said over a million tests available. Who knows what is right and who to believe these days.

[Robert Engel]

I am not a human epidemiologist, but I am in the medical field somewhat familiar with infectious diseases.

One aspect to understand about spread is subclinical (non symptomatic) infections. These are people (young children apparently rarely show symptoms) who become infected and do not get sick at all. If everyone got sick, they could be isolated. But subclinical people will never be isolated nor tested but they can shed the virus. With this in mind, what surprises me is the apparent lack of spread, which of course could change.

So fare 21 people out of 3500 on a cruise ship (19 crew, 2 passengers) tested positive. It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

Ultimately an epidemiological study based on antibodies (exposure) has to be done to determine the true mortality rate. IOW antibody testing will show if you have ever been infected, whereas the current test only shows the presence of the virus, which is NOT a determiner of illness. I have read the WHO estimate of 3.4% mortality will be shown to be severely overestimated when this is all over. It more likely to be as low as 0.1%.

IMO the media is more dangerous than the virus! IMO the public has been unnecessarily panicked. 17 deaths and the stock market crashes?

People need to listen to knowledgeable people like Dr. Ben Carson, who are trying to educate, not panic. Also quite sad to see it being made into a political issue by the media and other people who will stop at nothing to denigrate their opponent.

That said, there is no vaccine and there are categories of people at higher risk. If I were immunologically challenged, on chemo, over 70, or working in a child care facility, hospital, etc I would be concerned.

But the hysteria promulgated by the media and politicians will not help anyone.

[Edwin Santos]

For anyone with a low opinion of millennials, here is a bright spot -

A clever high school kid in Washington state put this site together which gives you Coronavirus stats at a glance. He did a pretty good job, and the sources for his data are cited in one of the tabs: https://ncov2019.live/data

Edwin

[Pat Barry]

I am not a human epidemiologist, but I am in the medical field somewhat familiar with infectious diseases.

One aspect to understand about spread is subclinical (non symptomatic) infections. These are people (young children apparently rarely show symptoms) who become infected and do not get sick at all. If everyone got sick, they could be isolated. But subclinical people will never be isolated nor tested but they can shed the virus. With this in mind, what surprises me is the apparent lack of spread, which of course could change.

So fare 21 people out of 3500 on a cruise ship (19 crew, 2 passengers) tested positive. It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

Ultimately an epidemiological study based on antibodies (exposure) has to be done to determine the true mortality rate. IOW antibody testing will show if you have ever been infected, whereas the current test only shows the presence of the virus, which is NOT a determiner of illness. I have read the WHO estimate of 3.4% mortality will be shown to be severely overestimated when this is all over. It more likely to be as low as 0.1%.

IMO the media is more dangerous than the virus! IMO the public has been unnecessarily panicked. 17 deaths and the stock market crashes?

People need to listen to knowledgeable people like Dr. Ben Carson, who are trying to educate, not panic. Also quite sad to see it being made into a political issue by the media and other people who will stop at nothing to denigrate their opponent.

That said, there is no vaccine and there are categories of people at higher risk. If I were immunologically challenged, on chemo, over 70, or working in a child care facility, hospital, etc I would be concerned.

But the hysteria promulgated by the media and politicians will not help anyone.

I dispute the presumptions that the media is more dangerous than the disease. Thats simply overstating things for dramatic purposes. The stock market isn't being swayed by the media, it is being swayed by the facts and data and extrapolations of the data itself. The media reports and conjectures about the market, not the other way around. The media didn't make Italy close its borders and quarantine the whole country, its own experience with the growth of the diseased population that convinced them to take action, just as China did previously at the initial epicenter.

[Mike Henderson]

For anyone with a low opinion of millennials, here is a bright spot -

A clever high school kid in Washington state put this site together which gives you Coronavirus stats at a glance. He did a pretty good job, and the sources for his data are cited in one of the tabs: https://ncov2019.live/data

Edwin

Good site. Thanks for posting. How did you find that site?

Mike

[Mike Henderson]

I am not a human epidemiologist, but I am in the medical field somewhat familiar with infectious diseases.

One aspect to understand about spread is subclinical (non symptomatic) infections. These are people (young children apparently rarely show symptoms) who become infected and do not get sick at all. If everyone got sick, they could be isolated. But subclinical people will never be isolated nor tested but they can shed the virus. With this in mind, what surprises me is the apparent lack of spread, which of course could change.

So far 21 people out of 3500 on a cruise ship (19 crew, 2 passengers) tested positive. It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.

Ultimately an epidemiological study based on antibodies (exposure) has to be done to determine the true mortality rate. IOW antibody testing will show if you have ever been infected, whereas the current test only shows the presence of the virus, which is NOT a determiner of illness. I have read the WHO estimate of 3.4% mortality will be shown to be severely overestimated when this is all over. It more likely to be as low as 0.1%.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

IMO the media is more dangerous than the virus! IMO the public has been unnecessarily panicked. 17 deaths and the stock market crashes?

People need to listen to knowledgeable people like Dr. Ben Carson, who are trying to educate, not panic. Also quite sad to see it being made into a political issue by the media and other people who will stop at nothing to denigrate their opponent.

That said, there is no vaccine and there are categories of people at higher risk. If I were immunologically challenged, on chemo, over 70, or working in a child care facility, hospital, etc I would be concerned.

But the hysteria promulgated by the media and politicians will not help anyone.

First half good commentary.

Second half politics.

Mike

[Stephen Tashiro]

We are light years ahead of the response to SARS.


How many deaths were there in the USA due to SARS? The Wikipedia says zero.

[Edwin Santos]

Good site. Thanks for posting. How did you find that site?

Mike

Mike,

I found it through good old fashioned word of mouth. A friend is agonizing over his upcoming trip to Vietnam in a couple of weeks and has been trawling the travel forums where that particular virus update site has become popular. I just marvel at the skills and initiative of the high school kid that put it together. I'd say he has a bright future with Google or someone like that. I used the donate button and bought him a coffee today.

The recovered stats were a good reality check for me. Of course it would be better if there was no virulent flu variant like COVID-19 running around, but at least there are a considerable number of people recovering and from what I hear, a considerable number showing mild or no symptoms.
Edwin

[Edwin Santos]

It will be interesting to see how many eventually test positive and how many actually get sick.



I have been wondering if testing positive necessarily means getting sick. Does anyone know if is possible to catch the virus but not become sick per se? I know there is talk of infected people being asymptomatic, but is that only during an incubation period, or can a person be asymptomatic during the entire spell of illness?

I've heard reports that children are less susceptible to the virus, but schools are being closed in places anyway, the implied reason being that a kid might not get sick but still become a carrier and then bring it home where it spreads in the community. But I'm not certain I'm understanding the news reports on this specific issue properly hence the question.
Maybe because it's a novel virus, some of the answers to such questions are still not known. For example, another question - if virus germs can be left behind on say, a handrail, by an infected person, how long can those germs survive? Minutes, hours, days, weeks?

The CDC website doesn't address these questions. And there is a lot of fluid language like "it is thought that....", "the virus may transmit....", "... could be at risk".
As the situation continues to unfold and more information is known, I think it will help alleviate panic.

Anyone who knows the answers to some of these questions, please chime in.
Edwin

[Doug Dawson]

For example, another question - if virus germs can be left behind on say, a handrail, by an infected person, how long can those germs survive? Minutes, hours, days, weeks?


I've heard the figure 9 hours being batted around, I don't remember the source (but I don't read junk science reporting.)

[Josko Catipovic]

This is gonna get ugly.

[David L Morse]

This article (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/8/1925485/-Coronavirus-Some-more-research-findings-about-the-virus?utm_campaign=recent) has some interesting data.

[Doug Dawson]

This article (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/8/1925485/-Coronavirus-Some-more-research-findings-about-the-virus?utm_campaign=recent) has some interesting data.

Wow, that's a good article, and worth reading. I take issue, however, with comparisons to the flu, because it depends on _which_ flu we're talking about. Some have proven far more deadly than others. (That gets lost in the conversation.)

[Robert Engel]

This article (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/8/1925485/-Coronavirus-Some-more-research-findings-about-the-virus?utm_campaign=recent) has some interesting data.

Briefly perused. I think there is some inaccurate information such as "high mortality rate in elderly". Its really more like "higher", just like the flu. I would take the mortality numbers with a grain of salt because there won't be any meaningful numbers until all the data is in for epdemiolgist to study..

China has a higher mortality rate for several reasons. Very poor air quality, cigarette smoking is rampant, they work 6 days a week, often 10-12 hours a day, and in the cities they are packed in like sardines in apartment buildings.

@Edwin: I don't understand the logic behind closing schools, as young children have an extremely low level of sickness. If they were carrying the virus to a school the only people really at risk would be the adults. Perhaps that is the reason.

It has been found many people contract Corona and either never have symptoms at all or just minor symptoms. But they will still shed virus until their immune system rids the body so therefore are still infectious to other people.

[Edwin Santos]

I've heard the figure 9 hours being batted around, I don't remember the source (but I don't read junk science reporting.)

Thanks, this is exactly what I have been trying to find out.

[Doug Dawson]

Thanks, this is exactly what I have been trying to find out.

I'm still going to kiss and hold hands with my wife. But that thing about handshakes with people you meet, that is so OVER. Now they just get the wiggly fingers. Nanu nanu. Or the Vulcan salute.

Live long and prosper.

[Steve Demuth]

I have been wondering if testing positive necessarily means getting sick. Does anyone know if is possible to catch the virus but not become sick per se? I know there is talk of infected people being asymptomatic, but is that only during an incubation period, or can a person be asymptomatic during the entire spell of illness?

I've heard reports that children are less susceptible to the virus, but schools are being closed in places anyway, the implied reason being that a kid might not get sick but still become a carrier and then bring it home where it spreads in the community.

You most definitely can become infected with virus and have no or very mild disease. Indeed, most people who are infected do not get very sick. But a fraction of infected persons become seriously ill, and a fraction of those die. The best numbers I've seen at work (in a major hospital) say 80% of infections overall are very mild, another 10-15% get the equivalent of a bad case of flu and 5-10% require hospitalization and some degree of intensive care.

According to China Centers for Disease Control, mortality in children under age 10 is almost 0, and the mortality rate increases with age from 10 on up (still very small) to 80 (at which age, China reported mortality of close to 15%).

These numbers are highly suspect, since it is highly likely that actual infections are undercounted, so the rate of non-symptomatic and non-serious disease is probably higher, and the mortality lower.

Interestingly, the increase in death rate closely mirrors the overall risk of death by age from all causes - if the Chinese numbers hold, then a person with Covid-19 is about 2-3 times as likely to die of the disease as they are to die in a given year from all other causes.

[Rich Engelhardt]

This article (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/8/1925485/-Coronavirus-Some-more-research-findings-about-the-virus?utm_campaign=recent) has some interesting data.Sorry - anything that starts with a political slam is nothing in my book I care to read. I just file that under propaganda & mostly BS and/or unfounded opinion.


This link OTOH - has no political rhetoric. https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR0FzkCgjZueL5Urzc7RiBQHM6N1LfMoMFbNzw3D MjwPU_OD2b0AIn5Eh_Y

[Nicholas Lawrence]

Sorry - anything that starts with a political slam is nothing in my book I care to read. I just file that under propaganda & mostly BS and/or unfounded opinion.


This link OTOH - has no political rhetoric. https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR0FzkCgjZueL5Urzc7RiBQHM6N1LfMoMFbNzw3D MjwPU_OD2b0AIn5Eh_Y

The CDC has a pretty good website that they are updating regularly. They recommend cleaning high touch surfaces daily.

How long a virus can survive depends on a lot of factors (material, is it exposed to sunlight, etc.).

[Rich Engelhardt]

Not saying there isn't good info out there - just saying that one link above started out with a popup that slammed someone for not doing enough and put all the blame on him.
I'm way beyond being fed up with crap like that.

[Doug Garson]

Not saying there isn't good info out there - just saying that one link above started out with a popup that slammed someone for not doing enough and put all the blame on him.
I'm way beyond being fed up with crap like that.
Mind cutting and pasting that popup in a post, I don't see one on that sight, maybe the popup is linked to your previous searches and has nothing to do with the article linked. I get a popup for a Super Dust Deputy from Busy Bee (which I just ordered from them).

[Jim Koepke]

Not saying there isn't good info out there - just saying that one link above started out with a popup that slammed someone for not doing enough and put all the blame on him.
I'm way beyond being fed up with crap like that.

So you are slamming an informative article because of those who buy advertising on their pages?

jtk

[Pat Barry]

Mind cutting and pasting that popup in a post, I don't see one on that sight, maybe the popup is linked to your previous searches and has nothing to do with the article linked. I get a popup for a Super Dust Deputy from Busy Bee (which I just ordered from them).

Please don't do this.. don't need blatant political bs polluting this thread

[Doug Garson]

Please don't do this.. don't need blatant political bs polluting this thread Agree, I shouldn't have asked him to post it, my point was that the popup likely had nothing to do with the site and more to do with his search history.

[Edwin Santos]

Here is another very good dashboard site for anyone interested in up to date statistical information: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The above link is for the desktop version. If you want the mobile version, you can select it from a pop up dialog box here: https://systems.jhu.edu/

BTW, this info is from Johns Hopkins University, hopefully regarded as a credible source by most....

Edwin

[Nicholas Lawrence]

So you are slamming an informative article because of those who buy advertising on their pages?
jtk

In this day and age a lot of “news” sites have agendas and are not above flat out dishonesty if it advances their preferred narrative. That is unfortunately true on both the left and the right.

For an issue like this, if I have to check things I see on a site to see if they are true or not I a simply not going to read it. I will go to the CDC or my local health department.

I don’t know if that is the point the other poster was trying to make or not, but that is how I feel about those types of sites.

[Rich Engelhardt]

So you are slamming an informative article because of those who buy advertising on their pages?No - I'm saying the site itself is so biased against anything not left leaning it's pure BS & I wouldn't trust anything they have to say. The pop up wasn't advertising - it was from the site & wanting money to fight against Trump.
Happy now that I made it clearer and bumped up against the TOS?

"""Daily Kos is a group blog and internet forum focused on center-left politics and the Democratic Party and center-left liberal American politics. The site features a participatory political encyclopedia, glossaries, and other content. It is sometimes considered an example of "netroots" activism. Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Kos)"""

[Jim Koepke]

In this day and age a lot of “news” sites have agendas and are not above flat out dishonesty if it advances their preferred narrative. That is unfortunately true on both the left and the right.

For an issue like this, if I have to check things I see on a site to see if they are true or not I a simply not going to read it. I will go to the CDC or my local health department.

I don’t know if that is the point the other poster was trying to make or not, but that is how I feel about those types of sites.

Agreed, that is why my news/information gathering is done from a wide array of different sites of varying views, as opposed to a single site with an agenda. Usually when a particular statement is the same right, left and center it can be considered as likely being a fact if someone didn't dupe all of them.

In this case, there was a notice posted at the top of the story:


(This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Daily Kos may have a bias, it isn't on my daily reading list. It is rare that my reading of the Daily Kos site has revealed outright distortion of reality. This usually only has happened in an opinion piece. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, not to their own facts.

There are some sites who do make concerted efforts at using "alternative facts."

jtk

[Jim Koepke]

427741

jtk

[Robert Engel]

Here is another very good dashboard site for anyone interested in up to date statistical information: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

EdwinSeems like a good site, however they need to update their information.

US deaths currently 31. I believe we surpassed 23 deaths several days ago.

What is interesting, however, is comparing the deaths & confirmed cases is 2% mortality rate.

I am quite confident the mortality rate is much lower than 2% because the true number of infected people will never be determined because of subclinical infections (ie infection with no little to no symtoms). I am confident based on what I've read there are probably 1000's of people walking around right now who are infected and don't know it, and they are spreading the virus.

Also, there has yet to be a reported case of illness in children <10yrs old.

[John K Jordan]

Are you starting to worry about Coronavirus yet?

I see the WHO (World Health Organization) just declared the coronavirus a pandemic.

I'm definitely postponing my trip to Europe in May...

JKJ

[Edwin Santos]

Seems like a good site, however they need to update their information.

US deaths currently 31. I believe we surpassed 23 deaths several days ago.
.

It shows 30 US deaths as of a few seconds ago, but down in the lower left corner, there is a box showing when it was last updated. It shows 24 for Washington state alone, maybe that's what you were looking at?

[Jon Grider]

What astounds me is that our healthcare system that many say is the best in the world, and I'm not saying it isn't has conducted less than 5000 tests so far. Also the news that China produces 80% of our pharmaceuticals. Nothing like having the fox guard the chicken house.. I'll hold my tongue now.

[mike stenson]

Look at South Korea if you want a more realistic view I think. They've tested more than anyone else. The US system has the most cost per benefit of any system in the first world, not sure that's the 'best'.

[Jon Grider]

Look at South Korea if you want a more realistic view I think. They've tested more than anyone else. The US system has the most cost per benefit of any system in the first world, not sure that's the 'best'.
I'm not going to disagree with you Mike, I'm just trying to avoid a flame war. A few years ago I started a thread asking the Canadian SMC members their opinion of their healthcare system. The thread turned ugly pretty fast so I try to not create a ruckus now.I did feel the need to express my wonder at what seems an almost unbelievable situation presently as far as actually tests performed.

[Jim Koepke]

A friend sent me an email that seems to be getting around about self diagnosing coronavirus.

It sounded a bit off and of course it was according to > https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/taiwan-experts-self-check/

Even what comes from legitimate news services may be subject to error or be incorrect due to misinformation. Just because an "in the know friend" posted it on Facebook doesn't make it a good source.

jtk

[Jim Koepke]

Just read a bit more online:

NBA season suspended due to a player testing positive.

Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson tested positive in Australia.

jtk

[Larry Edgerton]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&feature=youtu.be

[Josko Catipovic]

Yeah, I'm pretty worried.

[Erik Loza]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&feature=youtu.be

I listened to that episode yesterday while I was driving between customers. Excellent, well balanced explanation. Worth the listen even if you are not a JRE regular.

Erik

[Bill Carey]

I listened to that episode yesterday while I was driving between customers. Excellent, well balanced explanation. Worth the listen even if you are not a JRE regular.

Erik

yes it was - very good conversation - alarming but far from alarmist.

I think one of the things that has not been mentioned enough is that the rubber is going to hit the road on the local level. And I experienced that yesterday at a team meeting in a large Chi suburb. After meeting for 2 days. one of the participants got notified that the couple he stayed with last week have both been diagnosed with the virus. He had flown in from another country, so he called the local health dept. They did not know if he could get tested, then they knew he couldn't because he did not have symptoms, did not know how much he would be charged for it, did not know if he would be quarantined, did not know how to advise the conference center we were at, generally did not know shit. But they did say it was ok for everyone to fly home - 4 different states and 2 countries. Go figure. (insert here - "We're from the government, we're here to help.") Fortunately all I had was a 3 hour drive. To be honest, their lack of knowledge and readiness was scarier than the virus. If this is a typical local response, we are in deep shit.

So I'm on 14 day lock down, and SWMBO is furious because, of course, she did not want me to go. Should be a fun 2 weeks - I think I'll just set up a cot in the shop.

[Alan Rutherford]

...It sounded a bit off and of course it was according to > https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/taiwan-experts-self-check/...

Fact-checking? Where's the fun in that? The world would be a dull place if everybody used Snopes. But a better one.

[Doug Garson]

So I'm on 14 day lock down, and SWMBO is furious because, of course, she did not want me to go. Should be a fun 2 weeks - I think I'll just set up a cot in the shop.
Sorry to hear, take care of yourself and I hope you stay well.

[mike stenson]

To be honest, their lack of knowledge and readiness was scarier than the virus. If this is a typical local response, we are in deep shit.
.

I hate to be alarmist, but I suspect this is normal and that thought, scares the hell out of me. Not the virus, with sanity that's not a huge deal (look at South Korea), but peoples insanity in panic and the inability to have actual planned reactions.

[Ole Anderson]

Just wondering why this virus scare is being taken so much more seriously than previous ones. Based on the number of deaths, others were more severe, of course this one may just be starting.

[mike stenson]

Just wondering why this virus scare is being taken so much more seriously than previous ones. Based on the number of deaths, others were more severe, of course this one may just be starting.

It's just the start, however the biggest problem is if/when it overwhelms the healthcare system. At that point, more people are going to die than otherwise would. Simply because the resources do not exist to treat everyone. This is what has happened in Italy.

[Matt Day]

Just wondering why this virus scare is being taken so much more seriously than previous ones. Based on the number of deaths, others were more severe, of course this one may just be starting.

Because this one is more serious than the previous ones. No vaccination, not understood yet, fast moving, and a giant lack of preparedness. We have no offense for it other than a defense of avoiding contact.

I fear the US will have difficulties because 40%+ of the country is obese, which with the complications with obesity makes them more susceptible to the virus.

[Brian Elfert]

I'm as worried about the economy as I am about COVID-19. I wouldn't be surprised if the economic damage from people staying home ends up costing the economy at least one hundred billion dollars. I worry if my employer will even survive if lockdowns get as bad as other countries.

I am not panicking about COVID-19, but I sure don't want to get sick. I was already very seriously ill with influenza the first week of the year.

[Ben Grefe]

I'm as worried about the economy as I am about COVID-19. I wouldn't be surprised if the economic damage from people staying home ends up costing the economy at least one hundred billion dollars. I worry if my employer will even survive if lockdowns get as bad as other countries.

I am not panicking about COVID-19, but I sure don't want to get sick. I was already very seriously ill with influenza the first week of the year.

Brian,

So far the market has lost 11.5 Trillion dollars in value. It’s a number so large that it’s hard to comprehend. The US GDP in 2019 was 21T. The feds pumped 1.5T into the market and it barely made a blip.

I know the overall value of the market doesn’t directly equate to the economy and one has to imagine that some of this will recover eventually (when? Who knows), but it’s easy to say at this point that the impact will be measured in a massive number.

[Doug Dawson]

So far the market has lost 11.5 Trillion dollars in value. It’s a number so large that it’s hard to comprehend. The US GDP in 2019 was 21T. The feds pumped 1.5T into the market and it barely made a blip.

I know the overall value of the market doesn’t directly equate to the economy and one has to imagine that some of this will recover eventually (when? Who knows), but it’s easy to say at this point that the impact will be measured in a massive number.

It's all so strongly controlled by perception. That's what the stock market _is_, a matter of perception about what's _going_ to happen with the prosperity of the "market", however you may define that.

It's not like commodities, where if you buy a thousand head of cattle, you're going to take possession and find someplace to put them unless you make other arrangements. :^)

[Malcolm McLeod]

...So far the market has lost 11.5 Trillion dollars in value.
...

Another way to view this is that the market is now worth $34.5T. A large number in my experience. Give or take a $Trillion.

For some the glass is 1/4 empty; others see it as 3/4 full.

Maybe also compare 2009-2010 swine flu (h1n1) numbers..? And media reports. Interesting contrast to now. ....I wonder why?:confused:

[Robert Engel]

It's just the start, however the biggest problem is if/when it overwhelms the healthcare system. At that point, more people are going to die than otherwise would. Simply because the resources do not exist to treat everyone. This is what has happened in Italy.

It does nobody any good to think in doomsday terms.

First, I would not compare health systems. Second many other cultural factors come into play such as pollution, rate of smoking, population density (China is bad on all these) hygiene, and, probably to some degree genetic factors. Third, the US is taking action that all the experts agree are helping limit the spread

I am confident the number of people who have contracted the virus is orders of magnitude higher that we know. The deaths we do know about - 36 so far. And it’s most certainly not only 1215 cases (latest CDC #), more likely in the tens of thousands - maybe more. Again this is because of subclinical/mild cases never tested.. This shouldn’t scare us this should give us comfort that this is a virus of low virulence (for normal healthy people).

And, also keep in mind that the virus itself can change (mutate) often into a less virulent strain as time goes by. And a mutation has already been discovered.

What we know: First and foremost people who have recovered are now immune! I almost wish I would get it and be done with it!

1. Young people appear to be unaffected. Its seems virtually no documented cases of clinical disease in children under 12-14 years of age.

2. The majority of infections in people under 60 (estimated 70-80%) are either completely symptom free, or mild symptoms one would experience with a bad cold or mild case of the flu.

3. A small percentage will experience more sever symptoms similar to the flu and require medical treatment.

4. An even smaller % will die. The highest risk group are the elderly in community living environments, immunologically challenges (chemotherapy, etc), certain preexisting respiratory conditions, etc. This is where the emphasis is. It affects so many of us personally. I have a son with psoriasis who is taking medicine that increases his risk. Fortunately he is only 28 so I am not as worried as I might be for an elderly parent in assisted living facility.

5. The numbers. While the actual numbers seem low compared to flu, no it’s not over yet but we can look at other countries and it does appear much less severe than the flu, SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc. Unfortunately we can’t trust China numbers for perspective on that.

Basing the mortality rate on confirmed infections is a huge error. Not only inaccurate, it only serves to fuel public panic and stress. Mortality rates are always retrospective and in this case will never be accurately known because many infections are asymptomatic/low morbidity. You don’t have to be an epidemiologist, this is just common sense. These people are not going to be tested and therefore never factored into the statistics.

6. IMO overall the media is doing a disservice. I’ve seen a lot of reporting that is hyping and amping up, which it seems that is the SOP nowadays. We’ve had 36 deaths so far and you would think it was 36,000. The economy is melting down ever something it shouldn’t.

We all need to take a deep breath and use common sense. Realize you can’t totally prevent getting it.

For myself, the news is off (highly recommended!), my shop is filled with the sounds of the 60’s/70’s. I’m drinking my Kombucha ��, I have zicam and vitC on hand. I’m 64 yrs old & healthy but I’m avoiding big crowds anyway. I am exposed to the public at my work, I wash my hands between customers and I observant of sneezing coughing people. But I do this anyway.

Sorry for the wordiness, just throwing my 2 cents in.

[Matt Day]

Well said Robert, but a couple points. I think a lot of fear, and rightly so, is the fear of the unknown. The virus isn’t totally understood but our top professionals and our government has been slow to respond. We also rely way too much on critical items produced overseas, like IV bags, masks, sanitizing products, etc.

And yes it can mutate, but not always for the better. Fingers crossed it will be somewhat seasonal like the flu, but depending on the strain there’s no way to tell.

As far as cultural conditions, one thing the US has against it is obesity and it’s associated health effects puts you at an increased risk.

I think people should be prepared with a cache of stored food and avoid being out in public as much as you can. Don’t go on that trip you planned months ago, for gods sake don’t go on a cruise, and thankfully concerts and sporting events and Disney have closed.

[Frederick Skelly]

I read this point on an authoritative site and it connected some dots for me: One big reason for cancelling events and other gatherings is to slow the spread so that health care doesnt get overwhelmed. That's pretty obvious in hindsight, but I hadnt seen it put quite so succinctly and I found it helpful.

Me? I'm worried about the workers. Some people cannot telecommute and I'm betting a fair number wont get paid. Janitors and many others come to mind. I read a touching story about some NBA player has put up $100,000 to help the folks at their stadium that are impacted by the suspension. I sure hope to see a lot more of that kind of generocity.

[Mark Rainey]

I read this point on an authoritative site and it connected some dots for me: One big reason for cancelling events and other gatherings is to slow the spread so that health care doesnt get overwhelmed. That's pretty obvious in hindsight, but I hadnt seen it put quite so succinctly and I found it helpful.


I agree Fred. We should shut all non-essential activity down. Italy’s health care system in overwhelmed. If our rate of spread continues, our hospitals will also be overwhelmed & people will die because of lack of proper treatment.

[mike stenson]

I agree Fred. We should shut all non-essential activity down. Italy’s health care system in overwhelmed. If our rate of spread continues, our hospitals will also be overwhelmed & people will die because of lack of proper treatment.

Yep. It's all about flattening the infection/time curve.

Ignoring worst case scenario is, frankly, stupid. Knowing it allows you to rationally respond, without panic.

[Pat Barry]

Yep. It's all about flattening the infection/time curve.

Ignoring worst case scenario is, frankly, stupid. Knowing it allows you to rationally respond, without panic.

Keep in mind that flattening curve just means prolonging the issue. Sure it should alleviate the pressure on hospitals clinics and personnel, but ut doesn't do much to reduce the total number infected or dead. Best hope is that by the end if this there might be a vaccine with 50% efficacy. That 50% is even a bit optimistic given known efficacy of flu vaccines. Death rate should come down, but nobody knows how much.

On a different tangent, The local grocery supermarket was almost out of 3 racks of toilet paper again today.

[Doug Garson]

Flattening the curve doesn't mean prolonging the issue, it means saving lives. If the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed people who would survive with proper treatment will not receive that treatment and die.

[Pat Barry]

Flattening the curve doesn't mean prolonging the issue, it means saving lives. If the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed people who would survive with proper treatment will not receive that treatment and die.

That brings up something that seems to be lacking in the data. For those requiring hospitalization, what is the success rate?

[Edwin Santos]

Keep in mind that flattening curve just means prolonging the issue. Sure it should alleviate the pressure on hospitals clinics and personnel, but ut doesn't do much to reduce the total number infected or dead.

This information is completely incorrect, according to Dr. Fauci who gave an informative interview in CNN's Coronavirus town hall special last night. I thought it was a very informative, factual program. If you don't believe me, stream it and listen for yourself.

Edwin

[Darcy Warner]

Nope, do not care. I have stuff to do and deadlines to meet.

[Jim Koepke]

Keep in mind that flattening curve just means prolonging the issue. Sure it should alleviate the pressure on hospitals clinics and personnel, but ut doesn't do much to reduce the total number infected or dead. Best hope is that by the end if this there might be a vaccine with 50% efficacy. That 50% is even a bit optimistic given known efficacy of flu vaccines. Death rate should come down, but nobody knows how much.

On a different tangent, The local grocery supermarket was almost out of 3 racks of toilet paper again today.

You may be looking at this incorrectly. Flattening the curve is accomplished by breaking the chain of Covid-19 spread. Breaking the spread means less people infected, not spreading out the timing of infection.

The low efficacy of flu vaccines is due to the having to choose which varieties of flu will be included in the vaccines. If my memory is working the making of a flu vaccine is limited to four different inactive virus strains. Then it takes about a year to produce significant doses of a vaccine. Some years the committee choosing the vaccine make up are on the spot. Some years they choose all the wrong strains.

There were only a few rolls of toilet paper at the store we went to yesterday. They were the marine toilet paper 4 pack for ~$5 and some single eco-rolls at $1.25 each.

Maybe this would be a good time to take note of what is disappearing from the shelves so next time when we hear of an outbreak in China or anywhere else we can head out early and buy an extra large pack of TP, a bottle or two of sanitizer and a case or two of Twinkies.

jtk

[Kev Williams]

On a different tangent, The local grocery supermarket was almost out of 3 racks of toilet paper again today.
I did some grocery shopping late last night at Winco, when I got there at 1:30am the parking lot was a good 1/3 full, and the 5 or so checkstands had carts about 3 deep waiting. What the store was totally out of save for the occasional scraps:
bread
TP
most fresh vegetables
most fresh fruit
flour
frozen vegetables
cheap meat, no chicken anywhere, no burger-
--------
They were low on soups, pasta, sauces--

They had plenty of dairy, lots of eggs, milk, cottage cheese & stuff, also lots of snacks, frozen pizzas, burritos, family meals, taquitos...

and they had lots of paper towels, which I also saw in a lot of shopping carts, which leads me to a prediction: in a week or so, there will be a shortage of drain-clearing plumbers and city workers needed in manholes to clean out all the paper towels used for what they were never designed for ;)

[John K Jordan]

Nope, do not care. I have stuff to do and deadlines to meet.

Unfortunately that was the attitude in Italy at first. They had 1 case on Feb 20.

As of yesterday, just 3 weeks later, they reported
17660 cases
1266 deaths
about 2500 new cases reported per day recently with current aggressive testing
The entire country is in lockdown.
We have friends in the north and hear the real stories of the impact.
Now, stuff is not getting done and deadlines are being missed.

We could learn from that.
Our local woodturning club canceled the March meeting next week.

[Mel Fulks]

Darcy is right. He is in a big place and I doubt he lets the hordes walk through to get to a bus stop. It's working in
a quarantine environment. I just wish my cave was that big ! And that the bears would move out !!

[Mark Bolton]

Our local colosseum/civic center has now cancelled all events. State government is moving to work-from-home arrangements for any and all employees and I would guess it will be S.O.P. across the board shortly. We are one of the rare states with zero "reported" cases to date but I'd guess thats just a matter of time.

Its time for China, Africa, and the rest, to address bush meat. The world has changed. Ritual, tradition, and superstition, pecking the skull caps off monkeys and eating bats and ant eaters can no longer be allowed. The sad part about this entire thing is its going to foment nasty nasty divisions between governments and countries. China is pretty much black balled in this entire thing and perhaps rightly so.

The global financial impact of this mess is going to be immeasurable and all because of some goofy ritual of live markets and taking home bush meat. If these countries want to isolate themselves theyve done a good job at laying that foundation.

[Darcy Warner]

Darcy is right. He is in a big place and I doubt he lets the hordes walk through to get to a bus stop. It's working in
a quarantine environment. I just wish my cave was that big ! And that the bears would move out !!

I am headed to just outside new Rochelle NY next week, looking forward to the lack of traffic. Hoping NYC is a ghost town and I can drag the CC LB and 24 foot gooseneck through it.

[Doug Dawson]

Its time for China, Africa, and the rest, to address bush meat. The world has changed. Ritual, tradition, and superstition, pecking the skull caps off monkeys and eating bats and ant eaters can no longer be allowed. The sad part about this entire thing is its going to foment nasty nasty divisions between governments and countries. China is pretty much black balled in this entire thing and perhaps rightly so.


I'm with you on the bush meat thing. But can we still eat possums and coons? In a stew, assuming we heat it to the requisite temperature (rolling boil for at least five minutes once we've skimmed off the fat) you'd think it would be safe. There are still some issues with eating squirrel brains, because that's been shown to be associated with prion poisoning (a.k.a. mad cow disease or a variant thereof.) Did you know that one serving of cow brain has been statistically shown to result in a 4-fold increase in the chance of contracting Creutzfeld-Jacob disease? (Closely related to mad cow.)

I'm totally with you on the bush meat thing, the Chinese appear to be so offended by any reference to the "Wuhan virus" that they're accusing the US military of planting it there, which has resulted in a diplomatic row. Not kidding here.

This is a vote in favor of "industrial" animal husbandry. Even hunting (of approved animals) in the US has been an under-the-surface issue for a number of years, the incidence of "chronic wasting disease" in deer-like creatures has been a little-spoken-of deal for a while now, nobody likes to talk about it.

[Dave Sheldrake]

The English folks are losing their minds and panic buying Loo roll, Pasta and dried rice

Us Welsh folks are going round licking door knobs trying to get two weeks off work :)

[Rod Sheridan]

I’m now on a 3 week work from home stint, like most of the people where I work.

Techs have now been split into groups, some at work, some at home.

Regards, Rod

[Pat Barry]

This information is completely incorrect, according to Dr. Fauci who gave an informative interview in CNN's Coronavirus town hall special last night. I thought it was a very informative, factual program. If you don't believe me, stream it and listen for yourself.

Edwin

I've certainly heard his talk, as well as several others. The point of flattening the curve is to reduce the level of peak strain on the system. Because there is no cure, no vaccine, all that is hoped is to delay the peak, spread it out over time, thus flattening the curve. The area under the curves will be the same unless a cure or vaccine is discovered. A vaccine is estimated to be 1 year away. The efficacy of a vaccine may not be high. We can just hope that the virus strain mutates a bit so that it is less deadly. Spanish flu in 1918 lasted three waves and 2 years.

[Frederick Skelly]

Our local colosseum/civic center has now cancelled all events. State government is moving to work-from-home arrangements for any and all employees and I would guess it will be S.O.P. across the board shortly. We are one of the rare states with zero "reported" cases to date but I'd guess thats just a matter of time.

Its time for China, Africa, and the rest, to address bush meat. The world has changed. Ritual, tradition, and superstition, pecking the skull caps off monkeys and eating bats and ant eaters can no longer be allowed. The sad part about this entire thing is its going to foment nasty nasty divisions between governments and countries. China is pretty much black balled in this entire thing and perhaps rightly so.

The global financial impact of this mess is going to be immeasurable and all because of some goofy ritual of live markets and taking home bush meat. If these countries want to isolate themselves theyve done a good job at laying that foundation.

I agree with your intent. But who gets to decide what kind of meat is no longer allowed?

I've known people who eat squirrel, rabbit - and even possum, groundhog and carp (fish). I'll bet you might too, living where you do. And what about some of the stuff they eat in Louisiana? Where do we draw the line? And who gets to decide?

[Mike Henderson]

And what about some of the stuff they eat in Louisiana? Where do we draw the line? And who gets to decide?

Well, I'm from Louisiana and I can't think of anything we eat that's all that unusual - raw oysters, alligator, crawfish - but that's not so strange.

Mike

[Edwin Santos]

This information is completely incorrect, according to Dr. Fauci who gave an informative interview in CNN's Coronavirus town hall special last night. I thought it was a very informative, factual program. If you don't believe me, stream it and listen for yourself.

Edwin


I've certainly heard his talk, as well as several others. The point of flattening the curve is to reduce the level of peak strain on the system. Because there is no cure, no vaccine, all that is hoped is to delay the peak, spread it out over time, thus flattening the curve. The area under the curves will be the same unless a cure or vaccine is discovered. A vaccine is estimated to be 1 year away. The efficacy of a vaccine may not be high. We can just hope that the virus strain mutates a bit so that it is less deadly. Spanish flu in 1918 lasted three waves and 2 years.

Well then you and Fauci disagree, because I just heard him (and Dr. Birx) speak at the live White House address and he clearly said blunting the peak shortens, not lengthens the overall epidemic. Blunting the peak means a less severe spike in infections, in other words fewer net people are infected. It is the objective of containment and mitigation.

It does not mean the same number of infected, just spread out over time.

Please stream today's White House conference and listen for yourself. On the other hand, if you think Fauci doesn't know what he's talking about, that's a different matter.

Not trying to be argumentative, but misinformation is serving to make the outbreak worse.

[Pat Barry]

Well then you and Fauci disagree, because I just heard him (and Dr. Birx) speak at the live White House address and he clearly said blunting the peak shortens, not lengthens the overall epidemic. Blunting the peak means a less severe spike in infections, in other words fewer net people are infected. It is the objective of containment and mitigation.

It does not mean the same number of infected, just spread out over time.

Please stream today's White House conference and listen for yourself. On the other hand, if you think Fauci doesn't know what he's talking about, that's a different matter.

Not trying to be argumentative, but misinformation is serving to make the outbreak worse.

I will agree to disagree with you on these points.
I have attached the typical image used to illustrate the concept. Its clear that spike is reduced if the effort is successful, however, the areas under the curves are similar.427842
Peace